ABM/Missile Defense Discussion

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Austin
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Post by Austin »

after PAD is launched, but before PAD has yet intercepted the BM.
IMHO that would turn out to be an effective but an expensive solution , Assuming for every IRBM 2 PAD & 2 AAD interceptors are launched , to get a high probability of kill , that still leaves you with a 1:4 ratio .

The other way to make it cost effective is to develop Early Warning and Long range accurate Sensors/Optical system , With a interceptor with a kill box altitude > 100 Km for PAD types and > 50 Km for AAD types

Which means if 2 PAD intercptor is fired at a target IRBM in few seconds interval then there should be sufficient time to analyse the result of the intercept and if necessary opt of 2 AAD Intercept, In that way if the PAD itself manages to destroy the Target , then one avoid the need to launch AAD and manages to get to a decent 1:2 ratio.
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Post by JCage »

Boss, I discussed this with someone who has worked on similar stuff in videsh...he said there is nothing like "cost effective" when it comes to ABMs*..its only in India where the Shukla type idiots keep thinking that tandoori chicken and kulcha should be available at prices = plain roti and daal without salt.

*The risks are too high. If you have to stop something you have to stop it since a failure is massively problematic

Having said that, yes, there is a long term plan to include long range early warning sensors.
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Post by Austin »

JCage wrote:Boss, I discussed this with someone who has worked on similar stuff in videsh...he said there is nothing like "cost effective" when it comes to ABMs*..its only in India where the Shukla type idiots keep thinking that tandoori chicken and kulcha should be available at prices = plain roti and daal without salt.

*The risks are too high. If you have to stop something you have to stop it since a failure is massively problematic

Having said that, yes, there is a long term plan to include long range early warning sensors.
Sir jee I agree with what you have to say , But at some point of time even you would agree at 1:4 ratio even if it is a 100 % workable solution is simply unacceptable considering that a single PAD would turn out to be more expensive than a IRBM it would try to intercept.

The risk is high true but not every IRBM falling on your head would be a N armed one and there is even no gurantee that a 1:4 ratio would turn out to be a 100 % kill.

The odds are still heavily in favour of the BM,and once you make a BM sophisticated with a monouvering RV and decoys than its a different ball game , And making the BM sophisticated is a less complex task than developing a ABM system

What the least such systems can deliver is prevent you from getting blackmailed form states which have a low inventory.
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Post by Kanson »

I agree with what you have to say , But at some point of time even you would agree at 1:4 ratio even if it is a 100 % workable solution is simply unacceptable considering that a single PAD would turn out to be more expensive than a IRBM it would try to intercept.
Austin, I partialy remember reading some US reports which stated, the per unit production cost of N armed ABM developed in 60s/ 70s *will be equal to 2 to 3 conventional ABM (I think the report refered THAAD) leaving the developmental cost and sensor infrastructure. At gross approximation, without being country specific, go by the reports, we can take 2 to 4 ABM missile is expendable for a single N armed BM. Hope whoever written it is not DDM by Indian stds. This 1:4 ratio is cost effective if you simply go by comparing missile to missile.
Which means if 2 PAD intercptor is fired at a target IRBM in few seconds interval then there should be sufficient time to analyse the result of the intercept and if necessary opt of 2 AAD Intercept, In that way if the PAD itself manages to destroy the Target , then one avoid the need to launch AAD and manages to get to a decent 1:2 ratio.
Though the spelt out numbers of 4 to 6 can be interpreted in many ways, you description looks meaningful. If i can extend, depends upon the type of missile and its parabolic path, first attempt will be 2 PAD to 4 PAD followed by 2 AAD. This is my 4 to 6 interpretation. No system will be designed to leave a gap for another system. Being more sophisticated, chances of interception by PAD is more than AAD.

JMTs
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Post by Arun_S »

Austin wrote:Which means if 2 PAD intercptor is fired at a target IRBM in few seconds interval then there should be sufficient time to analyse the result of the intercept and if necessary opt of 2 AAD Intercept, In that way if the PAD itself manages to destroy the Target , then one avoid the need to launch AAD and manages to get to a decent 1:2 ratio.
Could you lay that out in time sequence? I think you will see the time cruch and that drives engineering an interceptor that has very high accleration AND final velocity. Sometimes resembles a fallacy, .
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Post by ldev »

Austin wrote: Sir jee I agree with what you have to say , But at some point of time even you would agree at 1:4 ratio even if it is a 100 % workable solution is simply unacceptable considering that a single PAD would turn out to be more expensive than a IRBM it would try to intercept.

The risk is high true but not every IRBM falling on your head would be a N armed one and there is even no gurantee that a 1:4 ratio would turn out to be a 100 % kill.
This Dec 2006 article has Vijay Kumar Saraswat saying the following:
The tests will involve firing five intercepting missiles two seconds apart to guarantee that an incoming missile is destroyed. Saraswat expected the success rate in intercepting a missile would be 99.8 percent.

India could produce 200 interceptor missiles a year, at a cost of 60 million rupees (US$1.3 million) each, Saraswat said.
When your potential adversaries are nuclear armed, one does not do a cost comparison of an IRBM vs the ABMs expended for protection - rather it is the cost of the ABMs fired off vs the cost of a nuke warhead detonating on home soil. That is why Saraswat has stated that they expect a 99.8% probability of interception. The target is to make the ABM shield virtually leak proof. When he speaks of 5 missiles fired 2 seconds apart, clearly each successive PAD/AAD will be fired off to cover every single area of the intercept box to reach that 99.8% probability of interception.
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Post by JCage »

LDev, most excellent find!
India could produce 200 interceptor missiles a year, at a cost of 60 million rupees (US$1.3 million) each, Saraswat said.
If this figure is achieved, this is an incredible el cheapo cost effective ABM missile- I presume the Dr is talking about the PAD in particular. This missiles per unit cost, is but a fraction more than the high end air to air BVR rounds available off the marketshelf. :shock:
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Post by mandrake »

You see There is a dynamics involving ABM, What India needs is to safeguard its main cities and with the same, coupled with Dense satellite network, and Bi-static radars etc sensors etc.

If you can take the kill probability to 90% you will let your opponent think 9000 times before he opts to nukes.

Its not like one can churn out thousands of nuke bombs every year, even the soviets and Us couldnt.

Maybe down the line we will be back to bombers carrying nukes than missiles :lol: but hey I try to think futuristic and it makes me restless, I am in need of the time machine. Want to see how 200 years after things going to happen.
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Post by negi »

Bhai log at what altitude do the Gadha Ghodi series of missiles let go of their load ? i.e. in a hypothetical scenario with Pukes getting hold of MIRV tech from Lizard will the PAD be able to intercept the incoming missile before the individual warheads disengage from the MIRV bus ? (Imho with India mastering the ABM tech acquiring MIRV tech will be high on TSP's priority list ).
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Post by Austin »

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Last edited by Austin on 17 Jul 2007 15:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Austin »

Austin wrote:
Could you lay that out in time sequence? I think you will see the time cruch and that drives engineering an interceptor that has very high accleration AND final velocity.
Even assuming with PAD kill box @ 150 Km from present 50 km for an IRBM type target , It still represents a very difficult scenerio i.e No time to analyse the PAD kill and then chalk an intercept course for AAD , So all have to be fired at the Target.

The other option is to achieve a higher intercept speed but engineering an interceptor moving at Mach 16 plus is difficult.
i.e. in a hypothetical scenario with Pukes getting hold of MIRV tech from Lizard will the PAD be able to intercept the incoming missile before the individual warheads disengage from the MIRV bus
I wonder what happens in a scenerio when your enemy knows that you have a ABM system and a 2nd Strike policy and still would like to penetrate your ABM umbrella with his N IRBM and dosent have the luxury of sophisticated Decoys/ Manouvering RV and resorts to a Nuke Air Burst above our intercept buble envelop @ ~ 60 km

The EMP generated and significant ionization occuring at upper atmosphere would disable all the electronic system like ABM's EW/FCR radar and opens a window for his N strike.

Can gurus throw some light on that ?
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Post by SamP »

negi wrote:Bhai log at what altitude do the Gadha Ghodi series of missiles let go of their load ? ...
Pardon the ignorance, but what are the Gadha Ghodi series of mizziles?
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Post by Austin »

negi wrote:Bhai log at what altitude do the Gadha Ghodi series of missiles let go of their load ? i.e. in a hypothetical scenario with Pukes getting hold of MIRV tech from Lizard will the PAD be able to intercept the incoming missile before the individual warheads disengage from the MIRV bus ? (Imho with India mastering the ABM tech acquiring MIRV tech will be high on TSP's priority list ).
Negi , When the individual RV is released from the bus (PBV) , it is much above PAD intercept buble , Which as Arun mentioned is ~ 50 Km.

IMHO if Pakis manages to MIRV their Gadha Ghodi with Lizards help then it is a problem and the problem gets more compounded & complicated with sophisticated RV and Decoys and Lizard will do their best to blunt our ABM advantage via their favourite proxy client.

But if they are free falling RV following a Ballistic Fall ( i.e no active types like the Agnis ) then PAD should capable of dealing with it accordingly.

But thats just my opinion
Pardon the ignorance, but what are the Gadha Ghodi series of mizziles?
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Post by Arun_S »

Austin wrote:
Could you lay that out in time sequence? I think you will see the time cruch and that drives engineering an interceptor that has very high accleration AND final velocity.
Even assuming with PAD kill box @ 150 Km from present 50 km for an IRBM type target , It still represents a very difficult scenerio i.e No time to analyse the PAD kill and then chalk an intercept course for AAD , So all have to be fired at the Target.

The other option is to achieve a higher intercept speed but engineering an interceptor moving at Mach 16 plus is difficult.
In this time race to reach high altiude versus time to accurately know target trajectory, I was thinking it might be worthwhile to dispatch and pre-position an interceptor high up in approximate position when decision is made to counter enemy missile. This akin to Sounding rocket climbing up almost vertically with lot of time spent in high altitude(apogee of ~200Km). The smaller single stage interceptor is the separating payload that is later fired when the target missile trajectory is known to desired accuracy and there is adequate time within available intercept rocket impulse to kill the target.
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Post by Kanson »

If you can take the kill probability to 90% you will let your opponent think 9000 times before he opts to nukes.
True. This virutally adds another dimension to deterent. Though its importance is subdued by the repeated failures in US during testing phase and Russian rheotric.
ldev wrote:This Dec 2006 article has Vijay Kumar Saraswat saying the following:
The tests will involve firing five intercepting missiles two seconds apart to guarantee that an incoming missile is destroyed. Saraswat expected the success rate in intercepting a missile would be 99.8 percent.
India could produce 200 interceptor missiles a year, at a cost of 60 million rupees (US$1.3 million) each, Saraswat said.
Nice, you find this article. This was discussed in this thread previously. This refers to PAD. However, Saraswat declined to comment on the numbers and production figures to the directed question in the interview; this paper published the figures quoting him. All-n-all, point to be taken is this system is affordable as well as cost effective.
When your potential adversaries are nuclear armed, one does not do a cost comparison of an IRBM vs the ABMs expended for protection - rather it is the cost of the ABMs fired off vs the cost of a nuke warhead detonating on home soil.
Very much true. Extra effort in giving the cost benefit analysis is to allay any fears raised by skeptics influenced by bread vs gun analysis or by the US public debate.
That is why Saraswat has stated that they expect a 99.8% probability of interception. The target is to make the ABM shield virtually leak proof. When he speaks of 5 missiles fired 2 seconds apart, clearly each successive PAD/AAD will be fired off to cover every single area of the intercept box to reach that 99.8% probability of interception
Generally, 5 missiles to reach 99.8% represents taking 5 iterations to reduce the error of the system in intercepting the target to reach the stated Pk figure. With increasing processing capabilites and maturity of the system, the number of missiles required will become less. And, this is not like positioning 5 missiles around an area. I belive these 5 numbers is the figure for the PAD and the number will come down with improvements. Its better to complete the task in higher altitudes than giving the job to the junior system. In cricket terms, if sachin can bat it is better to win the match playing him than sending a new batsman.

2 cents..
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Post by Sparsh »

I am nearly certain that the upper end of PAD's envelope is as high as 80 km and not 50 km.

The intercept in the first test happened at 50 km.
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Post by vinayak_d »

Yes I too remember reading about PAD's upper range being 80 km. The AAD must take care of 20-30 km region.
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Post by Austin »

Arun_S wrote:In this time race to reach high altiude versus time to accurately know target trajectory, I was thinking it might be worthwhile to dispatch and pre-position an interceptor high up in approximate position when decision is made to counter enemy missile. and there is adequate time within available intercept rocket impulse to kill the target.
Are you suggesting LEO based interceptors which when required the interceptor stage seperates from main booster to itercept the target ?

How about moving away from the conventional Projectile based interceptors , to using High Energy Weapons like Lasers and Microwave , The Boeing YAL-1 is one out of box approach.

The problem as I see it in our context is the exteremly short flight path for BM which is under 12 minutes , Even CONUS gets about atlleast 20 minutes of warning time to react.
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Post by Arun_S »

Austin wrote:
negi wrote:Bhai log at what altitude do the Gadha Ghodi series of missiles let go of their load ? i.e. in a hypothetical scenario with Pukes getting hold of MIRV tech from Lizard will the PAD be able to intercept the incoming missile before the individual warheads disengage from the MIRV bus ? (Imho with India mastering the ABM tech acquiring MIRV tech will be high on TSP's priority list ).
Negi , When the individual RV is released from the bus (PBV) , it is much above PAD intercept buble , Which as Arun mentioned is ~ 50 Km.
Yes MIRV separation happen much earlier shortly after boost phase.

And yes PAD is high altitude interceptor, its lower envelop edge is ~50Km. The upper edge is determined by fuel energy, mass fraction as fas as ballistics is considered, but as a system is limited by cuing radar accuracy and in future when PAD gets an onboard RF/EO seeker, its range and accuracy. The best decoy discrimination IMHO is when the missile, decoy and debris enters atmosphere at ~ 90 km altitude
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Post by abhischekcc »

Arun. Are you still in Delhi?
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Post by Arun_S »

No boss. Kyburdurra calling.
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Post by JaiS »

BAE Systems to Develop Seeker for Multiple Kill Vehicle Program

NASHUA, N.H.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--BAE Systems will develop and test a key component of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's Multiple Kill Vehicle payload system.

The company will produce, test, and integrate the system's carrier vehicle seeker for the captive carry testbed under a two-year, $6.3 million contract from Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co.

In the event of an enemy missile launch, an interceptor equipped with this payload will track down the target using data uplinked to the BAE Systems seeker aboard the carrier vehicle. Once outside the earth's atmosphere, the seeker will acquire and track all threat objects, including the missile and any countermeasures deployed to disrupt U.S. defenses. The carrier vehicle will then dispense a large number of small "kill vehicles", guiding them to destroy the targets designated by the seeker.

"This is a new midcourse interceptor capability for the Missile Defense Agency that lowers the cost per kill and increases the probability of engagement success," said Kevin Ezzo, BAE Systems Ballistic Missile Defense program director.
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Post by gopal.suri »

US is integrating megawatt class Laser on aircraft

solid-state illuminator laser is successfull

The kilowatt-class illuminator, built for the agency’s Airborne Laser (ABL) program and fired from a heavily modified Boeing 747, is used to track a boosting ballistic missile. The projectile is then destroyed by the ABL’s high-energy laser.

The illuminator has been fired more than 900 times since installation on the aircraft for ground tests that began in 2006. It has conducted more than 140 million pulsed laser shots.
:eek:
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Post by Arun_S »

Cruise Missile Sector Facing Supersonic Challenge
by Theodore Gaillard
Washington (UPI) Oct 11, 2007
Against Tomahawk-type cruise missiles, Russia's supersonic S-300PMU's kill ratio is listed as 0.8-0.98. The ad brochure claim may be excessively high, but a U.S. Government Accountability Office report highlighted a six-Tomahawk "stream raid" against the Rasheed airfield in which only two arrived over target after surviving far less sophisticated Iraqi defensive systems.

How ironic that more than 40 years ago the United States fielded the AGM-28B Hound Dog, an air-launched Mach 2 standoff cruise missile with 710-mile range, inertial/stellar navigation, mixed hi-lo dog-leg attack profile, and a one-megaton thermonuclear warhead.

Today? France's inertially guided ramjet-powered Mach 2-3 ASMP standoff cruise missile entered service in 1986 with a 300-kiloton nuclear warhead. Range: about 200 miles, similar to Lockheed Martin's Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, or JASSM.

But for pinpoint strikes in non-nuclear conflicts, current U.S. and EU conventional cruise missiles -- all subsonic -- would probably not survive advanced land- or ship-based defensive systems mentioned above.

What about other countries' comparable cruise missile capabilities? You judge:

China's ramjet-powered C-301 anti-ship cruise missile: Mach 2; 80-110-mile range -- depending on variant -- 1,130-pound warhead; inertial navigation with active radar terminal guidance; operational since about 1995.

China's Russian-built Sovremenny-class destroyers carry sea-skimming Mach 2.5 carrier-busting SS-N-22 Sunburn anti-ship ramjet cruise missiles. Range: 100 miles with 660-pound conventional or 200-kiloton nuclear warheads.

Mach 2.5-2.8 BrahMos ramjet anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles -- a Russia-India joint venture -- now deployed with the Indian navy are about to enter service with India's army. They can be air-, ship-, sub-, or land-launched; 660-pound warhead; range: 80-200 miles, depending on altitude; preset inertial navigation with alternating inertial/active radar terminal guidance. Export discussions have reportedly occurred with Malaysia, Chile, South Africa, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia? SS-N-12 Sandbox, conventional or nuclear, 300-plus mile range, Mach 2.5; SS-N-19 Shipwreck, conventional or nuclear, 300-plus mile range, Mach 2.5, deployed for decades on Russian carriers, cruisers and Oscar-class nuclear submarines.

Operational since 1984 and offered for sale to countries in addition to China, Russia's SS-N-22 Sunburn equips Sovremenny destroyers and various patrol boats. Guidance: initially inertial, with mid-course updates via aircraft or satellite; during terminal phase it employs a multi-channel seeker and 15G evasive 'S' maneuvers. Combat Fleets of the World describes it as a "very sophisticated weapon against which other navies have yet to develop an effective countermeasure," including the United States.

Indeed, in its entire cruise-missile inventory, the United States possesses no equivalents. Forget about replacing JASSMs with other subsonic missiles. Unless we develop and deploy our own stealthy, jam-proof, inertial/GPS-guided, terrain- and wave-hugging supersonic cruise missiles, technologically more advanced adversaries will control the battle space.
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Post by sanjaykumar »

So what's so special about Brahmos??
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Post by Cain Marko »

sanjaykumar wrote:So what's so special about Brahmos??
I take it you are being sarcastic onlee. :twisted: Otherwise, the highlighted words in the above article should be given due attention in light of recent tests of the Brahmos in which it performed said "S" curve manouvers. Not to mention the work on the multiple seeker variants.

Regards,
CM
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Post by Arun_S »

sanjaykumar wrote:So what's so special about Brahmos??
Could you please do a little Google yourself, before asking?

Spoon-feeding is bad for health ;)
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Post by vivek_ahuja »

What I am wondering is how the Brahmos manages a ‘S’ turn at Mach 3 without losing a good deal of it’s kinetic energy?

Does it depend mostly on its explosive power at the end of this maneuvering phase for doing the damage to the target?
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Post by Vick »

Arun_S wrote:Cruise Missile Sector Facing Supersonic Challenge
but a U.S. Government Accountability Office report highlighted a six-Tomahawk "stream raid" against the Rasheed airfield in which only two arrived over target after surviving far less sophisticated Iraqi defensive systems.
That incident had more to do with human error than anything else.
Operational since 1984 and offered for sale to countries in addition to China, Russia's SS-N-22 Sunburn equips Sovremenny destroyers and various patrol boats. Guidance: initially inertial, with mid-course updates via aircraft or satellite; during terminal phase it employs a multi-channel seeker and 15G evasive 'S' maneuvers. Combat Fleets of the World describes it as a "very sophisticated weapon against which other navies have yet to develop an effective countermeasure," including the United States.
Something that's been in service for almost two decades has no counter?
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Post by Austin »

sanjaykumar wrote:So what's so special about Brahmos??
May be this can help you
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Post by vinayak_d »

Vick wrote:
Arun_S wrote:Cruise Missile Sector Facing Supersonic Challenge
but a U.S. Government Accountability Office report highlighted a six-Tomahawk "stream raid" against the Rasheed airfield in which only two arrived over target after surviving far less sophisticated Iraqi defensive systems.
That incident had more to do with human error than anything else.
Operational since 1984 and offered for sale to countries in addition to China, Russia's SS-N-22 Sunburn equips Sovremenny destroyers and various patrol boats. Guidance: initially inertial, with mid-course updates via aircraft or satellite; during terminal phase it employs a multi-channel seeker and 15G evasive 'S' maneuvers. Combat Fleets of the World describes it as a "very sophisticated weapon against which other navies have yet to develop an effective countermeasure," including the United States.
Something that's been in service for almost two decades has no counter?
Still the tomohawk can be stopped by decent air defences let alone S-300/400.

The ICBM's have been there longer no one seems to have any credible counter?
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Post by JCage »

vivek_ahuja wrote:What I am wondering is how the Brahmos manages a ‘S’ turn at Mach 3 without losing a good deal of it’s kinetic energy?

Does it depend mostly on its explosive power at the end of this maneuvering phase for doing the damage to the target?
It does lose energy, as a result of which it can maintain range but conduct S Curves by having a trajectory with a high flying cruise phase. But if the same maneuver is conducted at sea level, with the Brahmos flying low throughout (very hard for AD system to track and intercept), then the range is roughly halved and even more. The Brahmos will use its warhead for the primary kill mechanism, come what may- the rest comes from its kinetic energy and the unused fuel (if any) in the missile - if it used at shorter range etc.
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Post by JCage »

Vick wrote:Something that's been in service for almost two decades has no counter?
The US has been searching for a proper target to mimic supersonic CMs for quite some time, which has affected its defence preparedness, in the sense that they havent had the ability to validate their AD systems via repeated tests and familiarize crew with the same. This year, the Coyote was ordered and that should help.

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/gqm ... ses-03155/
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Post by sanjaykumar »

The velocities and trajectories desribed above are for the Yakhont. I can see no support for the claims that Brahmos is the first supersonic CM or of its programmable trajectories. Or its fire and forget feature. Or am I missing something.
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Post by vivek_ahuja »

It does lose energy, as a result of which it can maintain range but conduct S Curves by having a trajectory with a high flying cruise phase. But if the same maneuver is conducted at sea level, with the Brahmos flying low throughout (very hard for AD system to track and intercept), then the range is roughly halved and even more. The Brahmos will use its warhead for the primary kill mechanism, come what may- the rest comes from its kinetic energy and the unused fuel (if any) in the missile - if it used at shorter range etc.
That’s what I thought as well. It limits the choices as below:

a) Conduct high speed maneuvers, restrict yourself to higher and higher altitudes, and become visible to the enemy AD System. So it should be balanced between the advantages of the maneuvers versus stealth that low altitude offers.

b) Stay low, at sea level or terrain hugging level, avoid all detection by the enemy AD System, but fly in almost a straight line to the target if it is at longer ranges.

Further, the problem compounds itself for higher mach numbers. If they go ahead with the hypersonic version of this missile, they are not going to be able to do any maneuvers at all if the target is even at moderate ranges. I mean, a flight at Mach 5 or 6 and having a turn in it can bring down the mach number all the way to Mach 3 or something like that, and that means that you are now flying in an off design mach number, and that’s a hell of a loss in performance.

Makes me wonder what their objective is trying to make a hypersonic missile. Is the long term strategy to do constant maneuvers to evade an AD System or fly like a bullet to the target? Is there a comparative analysis for these two methods?
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Post by JCage »

sanjaykumar wrote:The velocities and trajectories desribed above are for the Yakhont. I can see no support for the claims that Brahmos is the first supersonic CM or of its programmable trajectories. Or its fire and forget feature. Or am I missing something.
Yes, you are missing the basic points, ie research viz the topic. A very brief snapshot is available at www.brahmos.com

but more details will come when you just google, and you'll get dozens of links. They will reinforce the data at the website above and you can find out key details.

Coming to the Yakhont:

The Brahmos is the Indo- Russian derivative of the Yakhont, and has been tested with the S Curve in Indian tests and has been fire and forget from day 1.

The Brahmos is the first Supersonic multipurpose CM. Other Missiles have been purely Anti Ship so far.

There is one Taiwanese Ramjet missile (anti ship, ship launched), and the Russian Kh-31 which is used for Anti Ship and Anti radiation attacks (air launched).

In contrast, the Brahmos can be air, sea, land launched against both ship and land targets.
Last edited by JCage on 13 Oct 2007 05:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by JCage »

vivek_ahuja wrote:
b) Stay low, at sea level or terrain hugging level, avoid all detection by the enemy AD System, but fly in almost a straight line to the target if it is at longer ranges.
It can conduct high speed maneuvers at low level, but at the cost of range. Note that it will going at ~ Mach 2 vs Mach 2.4+ at high level, but the issue of overcoming drag at sea level makes it use up more fuel. Thats what I meant earlier, but didnt use commas so my text is confusing I guess. With a high flying phase, you might lose ~40 Km with complicated manoeuvers, from the entire range of 290 Km. With a low-low-low profile, you'll end up halving the range with S curve manoeuvers- thats what I meant.
Further, the problem compounds itself for higher mach numbers. If they go ahead with the hypersonic version of this missile, they are not going to be able to do any maneuvers at all if the target is even at moderate ranges. I mean, a flight at Mach 5 or 6 and having a turn in it can bring down the mach number all the way to Mach 3 or something like that, and that means that you are now flying in an off design mach number, and that’s a hell of a loss in performance.
The aim will be to conduct turns even at high mach level. The Meteor for instance has a sustained speed of Mach 4 and can conduct turns, albeit carefully to minimize flow disturbance to the ramjet, and so will the design above. The Akash flies at Mach 2.5 as well.

The Brahmos Version 2 will have a range of ~1000 Km but at twice the Speed (and more if they can achieve it), so it reaches the target without susbtantial delay despite the range increase. What the range increase also means is that you can conduct more fancy manouevers but still maintain a range of ~300 Km plus easily.
Makes me wonder what their objective is trying to make a hypersonic missile. Is the long term strategy to do constant maneuvers to evade an AD System or fly like a bullet to the target? Is there a comparative analysis for these two methods?
The rationale for the follow on Brahmos is well thought out:

The Brahmos is able to conduct S manouevers, but with the loss of range. A longer ranged, faster variant will:

a) Be able to strike targets much farther away without sacrificing time to target . This is important because the target cant evade the missile by rapidly changing its position.

b ) Be able to strike targets without getting the launch platform to just 100-200 Km away despite conducting manoeuvers. Again, fire and forget from extreme range.

c ) The higher speed will shorten the entire time available for the "detection-acquisition- launch" methodology for any AD system. The most critical part of speed.

d) Many existing AD systems and CIWS systems will not be able to handle a faster Missile. The US has just started testing its AD kit against SSSTs (earlier only the kit was validated and put into service, but crew had no confirmation of efficacy). This is to be probably followed by a shorter ranged, cheaper variant of the SSST using the Terrier missile which would provide ~80% of the ability of the SSST Coyote but at a fraction of the cost.
The SSST Coyote has a speed of upto Mach 2.5.

The Brahmos follow on will effectively counter the above or at least, make it that much harder for other nations to counter the same, especially nations like the PRC etc which dont have the tech and funding the US enjoys.

Now coming to dancers vs streakers, the debate has gone on for years, and basically the former use stealth to achieve surprise, but when that surprise is lost are far easier to engage. And the latter use brute force, ie speed and surprise to engage, but when surprise is lost, are still hard to engage.

The aim of the dancer is to skim very low over the surface to minimize detection and acquisition (I am using acquisition as akin to tracking) and then perform complicated manouevers to throw off the AD. Ie enter the kill box from position X and end up coming from a different direction. The subsonic speed, lower drag (at the speed) allows the same. Harpoon, Exocet, fall into this category. The NSM (Swedish iirc) is one of the best, since it is absolutely stealthy- uses a passive IIR seeker. In contrast, all others, including the Brahmos, use RF seekers which can trigger the ESM and warn the opponent.

The Brahmos et al on the other hand are different- they come in from range, at high speed- go up high which has the issue of being detected by an AD system at high alt or when it does its initial search for the target (but which can be countered by launching Salvos with different trajectories to confuse an AD planner), and some km away from the target (depending on your mission planning), they enter into sea skimming mode. Being supersonic throughout, they can make life miserable by shortening the D-A-E cycle. It gets worse if a submarine receives targeting data and launches the Brahmos well within 100 Km. It will be supersonic throughout.

Bar the US, few nations have the ability to detect sea skimmers at extended range. The US depends on its E2Cs for extended coverage around its carriers, but the entire CBG has been markedly vulnerable to subs.

The Russians finally came up with arguably one of the best designs, a combination of the stealthiness of the subsonic missile, but a supersonic end stage- the Sizzler, ie the Club with supersonic dart. We have those as well for our subs iirc.

The Brahmos hypersonic will just set the bar that much higher for others to plan effective AD measures against it. With improvements to its nav-attack system and seekers, more fancy route changes can be implemented as well, as are being planned. So longer ranged, faster and smarter- whats not to like!!

But will take time and $$.
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Post by JCage »

Sanjay, Vivek:
Manoeuvring in the form of an "S" curve carried out
Report by TS Sub. in the Hindu

Not to the dozens of sensors and radars which were sending signals to scores of computer monitors. The monitors had already been showing the intended flight-path and one only had to monitor whether the missile was following it. Almost like a nursery-child's game of joining the dots. To eyes familiar with a ballistic missile flight path, this one looked grotesque. When the dots would be joined, it would look like the back of a giant snail.

That grotesque snail-back flight path is what makes BrahMos unique. It is easy to draw the flight path of a ballistic missile-a huge parabolic curve.
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Last edited by JCage on 13 Oct 2007 06:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Vick »

vinayak_d wrote:Still the tomohawk can be stopped by decent air defences let alone S-300/400.
Alegedly, the S-300 was caught with its pants down recently.
vinayak_d wrote:The ICBM's have been there longer no one seems to have any credible counter?
Moscovites would be distressed to learn that since their city is supposed to be protected by multiple batteries (and layers) of ABMs.
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