Siachen News & Discussion

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby member_23047 » 20 Apr 2012 00:08

Well as per Hamid Hussain's analysis in orbat.com "Lieutenant General Bikram Singh Backgrounder: Sikh Light Infantry (I think 6 SLI) officer. Good, professional officer but considered aggressive and very ambitious throughout his career. Sometimes could be overbearing and intolerable due to his aggressiveness. Such officers step on many toes during their career"

Let us see if he can be as aggressive as his predecessor and can keep Siachen safely in IA's control from the salvos thrown by PA disguised as peace offers. There can be no doubt, PA will use this opportunity to get the IA off Siachen and then later on grab it disguissed as Mujahids.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby ManuT » 20 Apr 2012 00:17

This is from TSP thread page 14, Apr 10th
Satya_anveshi wrote:The case of siachen too was something like that...they made all the prep to occupy an unmarked boundary only to be pre-empted by India in 1987. Once out of their control...they kept calling for "solving siachen"...now their main base camp is gone...what is there to solve?

it has been in Indian control for the last 25 years and is currently unchallenged...so in that sense...Zardari can claim to have solved the Siachen. It will be icing on the cake if he has signed it on paper as well.


Kiyani talking probably because frontline troops at their 'side' of white stuff may have been put on half-rations if the supplies are so badly reduced. He is just being polite in the meantime.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby ManuT » 20 Apr 2012 00:55

video was too much fake urdu for me, so the text version.

Honour won’t be traded for prosperity: COAS

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2011/05 ... rity-coas/

RAWALPINDI - The nation’s honour and integrity will not be compromised and traded in exchange for prosperity, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Kayani said on Saturday. Addressing a Youm-e-Shuhda ceremony at the General Headquarters, Kayani said, “What’s in our interest and what’s not is a decision only the people of Pakistan will make.” General Kayani pointed out that Pakistan was going through the most critical time but the nation should not let frustration and pessimism overcome it.

He said it was time to stand up and struggle for a progressive and prosperous country. “We believe in one army, one family and one nation and we will have to rise above personal interests and think for a strong Pakistan,” he asserted. He said the nation and its armed forces were like one unit. “A prosperous Pakistan is in the interest of all. We want to coexist peacefully with our neighbours,” he said, adding that Pakistan was a sovereign country and no decision would be taken against its sovereignty.

He said Pakistan was an independent country and would make all decisions in its own interest.

He said there was no room for hopelessness and asked the nation to join hands to take the country forward by crossing all hurdles. The COAS paid tribute to the soldiers who sacrificed their lives for the security and safety of the country. Kayani said the entire nation was supporting and standing with the Pakistan Army against war on terror.


A different tune barely a year back.
At least it would have been more plausible if it had been coming from a next ghazi-in-chief.

Yesterday's speech was made in Skardu against the shadow of the avalanche, IMO is just to pass the blame onto India.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby ShauryaT » 20 Apr 2012 01:53

Except for Brajesh Mishra, the rest were quite coherent. I do not know, what BM was trying to say.

Time for India and Pakistan to withdraw their troops from Siachen?

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby rajrang » 20 Apr 2012 02:56

rohitvats wrote:the interview and comments by Kiyani are a sure shot indication that something is afoot wrt Siachen. It has complete backing from PA. But the million dollar question is this-what is the quid pro quo? Withdrawl from Siachen is PA neccessity, not ours. They need to save their bacon, not us. Pakees are going to behave as if they have done us favor and ask for quid pro quo somewhere esle.
Fancy presentations not withstanding, AGPL needs to be demarcated. All this 'all options open if PA violates' is nonsense.......we refused to budge in face of greater challenges...Siachen is after all a 'desolate frozen wasteland'


What does complete backing from PA mean - the current Chief, other senior staff?

Words are cheap. Trust takes more such as -

(1) complete dismantling of all terrorist outfits, (2) stop expanding the nuclear arsenal which is already bigger than India's according to some reports, besides even if they agree to stop today they can always re-start it tomorrow, (3) stop expanding their missile arsenal, do they need a capability to destroy all of India, (4) why do they need a 600,000 man army, India has a big army because India has to deal with PRC, (5) stop ill-treatment of Hindu and Christian minorities and the list can go on.

The other million dollar question, is what is to prevent a future army Chief or TSP government to change their minds and occupy Siachen. India will find it impossible to get it back. It will be gone for ever. A bit similar to hind-chini bhai bhai prior to 1962.

No withdrawal from Siachen is my vote. After all on the Indian side the annual casualities is nearly zero I recall.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby partha » 20 Apr 2012 03:29

ShauryaT wrote:Except for Brajesh Mishra, the rest were quite coherent. I do not know, what BM was trying to say.

Time for India and Pakistan to withdraw their troops from Siachen?

Siddarth Varadarajan was a Pakistani representative in this debate explaining to us the Pakistani insecurities. Gen Malik retorted well by saying SV is not being pragmatic and does not have the experience like army men to talk about this conflict. Best comments were from Col Shukla.
What amazes me is the way our "intellectuals" have jumped on this as soon as Kayani made a statement about peace. Just because Pakistan lost its troops, why should India withdraw from positions earned with the blood of our jawans? Pakistan lost soldiers so India should withdraw. Don't they know how Pakistan wanted to bring in China into Siachen talks? India lost soldiers in Kargil. So let Pakistan withdraw from PoK. Deal? Intellectuals are acting like hungry dogs waiting for its master to throw a bone or 2. Master being Kayani here.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 20 Apr 2012 04:29

They are not Indian intellectuals but intellectuals representing the West. They are arguing with the natives to see reason.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby ManuT » 20 Apr 2012 06:26

Arnab G on times now.
---
Just a quick feedback on the Siachen part of the debate.

It is clear what is the bone of contention: authentication of AGPL, conversion of LOC to IB, is NOT acceptable to TSPA.

Of the 2 TSP reps on the show one had no clue other one (musharraf's sidekick) was deliberately evasive.

The other thing take away was, if ANYONE thinks that IA will just vacate without IRONCLAD GUARANTEES they have another thing coming.

(another 26/11 next?)

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby merlin » 20 Apr 2012 11:49

ManuT wrote:The other thing take away was, if ANYONE thinks that IA will just vacate without IRONCLAD GUARANTEES they have another thing coming.


The only iron clad guarantee for me would be if Pakistan and Pakistanis cease to exist. There is no other iron clad guarantee.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Lalmohan » 20 Apr 2012 11:57

the camp appears to be at 13000 ft. as mountain posts go, that is not so high. even bogota is at 12000 ft and is a fully functioning city
pak journos are making a big deal about its height and how its unfit for human habitation. i am sure plenty of human settlements in the himalayas are around at this altitude

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby rohitvats » 20 Apr 2012 12:44

^^^Lal Brof....Leh is at almost the same height as the Ghyari...so, as the geography of the area goes, Ghyari is pretty much a level area with gradual gradient.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Altair » 20 Apr 2012 13:23

Dot-1: Kiyani definitely has something on his mind regarding Siachen. He wants to change the current status. His statements reflects his position.

Dot-2: There is a growing thought process in both Pentagon and South Block that Pakistan could be offered substantial benefit by either US or India or both to checkmate China.

Dot-3: A-5 test demonstrated to the world that India has the wisdom to carry the long danda(with a sharp knife end) while speaking softly.

India will not be vacating any territory being the premise, We could see something very soon on Siachen from the Pakistanis pushed by the Americans.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Lalmohan » 20 Apr 2012 13:26

Scenario 1: pakistan might pull back and yindoos might make a token offering - media tamasha of kiyanahin is a man of peace
Scenario 2: the dragon is behind this, and not the Eagle, create offsetting tension against both Agni-V and current political tensions in the Beijing court

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Altair » 20 Apr 2012 13:41

Lalmohan wrote:Scenario 1: pakistan might pull back and yindoos might make a token offering - media tamasha of kiyanahin is a man of peace
Scenario 2: the dragon is behind this, and not the Eagle, create offsetting tension against both Agni-V and current political tensions in the Beijing court


If Khan senses that there is an opportunity to control china He will take it. If it means dumping Pakis (atleast in short term) and accommodating India to play the Panda, khan will spare no trick. India must make sure its interests are guarded well in any event.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby rohitvats » 20 Apr 2012 13:51

- One of the most challenging things about entering into agreement of any sort with pakees is the concept of continuity - or, actually lack of it. Kiyani may today actually want to smoke the peace pipe for his own reasons and will ensure that enough noise/momentum is build to do so internally but what happens after Kiyani? What if the next Chief is another ghazi-incarnate and considers the act of predecessor as being an act of less "green" ghazi? What if we have another "brilliant" general like mushyrat who intends to teach a lesson to kafirs because his favorite goat was killed in cross-LOC firing when he was lowl major posted in Kashmir? Agreements can be made between two sane people...not with idiots occupying earth to our west.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 20 Apr 2012 14:02

Legally binding agreement between two countries with legal UN guarantees would make life much easier

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby krishnan » 20 Apr 2012 14:04

Until some illegal non-state actors jump in

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby rohitvats » 20 Apr 2012 14:06

Austin wrote:Legally binding agreement between two countries with legal UN guarantees would make life much easier


Sorry, UN does not count for anything. It is one of those warm and fuzzy things. Remember, the UN condemnation of India as an attacker in 1971? The prevalent geo-political situation will decide what happens at the time of any conflict.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 20 Apr 2012 14:20

Times have changed since 1971 , Today any violation of UN agreement would means sanctions if the party does not come to terms , worst it may also mean war under UN mandate if situation persists.

Today there is no better mechanism that exist then to have strong legally binding agreement between two countries backed by similar legal guarantees by UN/P-5 , thats the best bet.

Even dispute between other countries are being sought to be resolved under UN , there is nothing better that exist today.

Lets say hyptotically even if some future general decides to invade Siachen , the gain they might get by holding a cold desert versus the loss they might face under even mild UN sanctions are simply not worth the gamble.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby jai » 20 Apr 2012 14:41

Basically the pukis are going bankrupt running Siachen, and thefore want to fool India into vacating it so that they can invite the dragon to occupy it tomorrow. Hope mms and his new pappu does not fall to this trick - it will be the biggest disaster ever. The army will be up in arms on this one if mms or pappu fell for this sham.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Altair » 20 Apr 2012 15:00

Toilet paper has more Value to its existence than United Nations.
Even in modern times (On the top of my head),
Where was UN while US killed tens of thousands of Iraqis?
Where was UN when Georgia was occupied by Russia? (I am on Russia side here against the Georgian thugs)
Where was UN when Sri Lankan Army massacred LTTE including women and children?
I can go on here..
Siachen does not need UN mandate. It belongs to India. Period. Pakis can withdraw from Siachen and India will respect the status quo (until the next terrorist attack, ofcourse).
The only guarantee of the treaty will be the Big Bad Missile we tested yesterday.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby rohitvats » 20 Apr 2012 15:23

All this talk of UN involvement and geo-politics favoring India is simply BS. Nothing has changed...we continue to feel pressure from 3.5 friends on Pakistan; options like maintaining reserves to target Pakistan elsewhere on LOC/IB is simply vapourware and shows how people tend to forget history...and as they say, those who forget history and its lesson, are condemned to repeat the mistakes. Have we forgotten the Pakistani lie about LOC being not clearly demarcated in Kargil? International pressure on PA not-withstanding, we still lost ~600 odd men before the "International Pressure" got acting.

Why not demilitarize Kargil Sector and go back to earlier practice? After, we did vacate those locations in winter earlier and there is a clear precedent. PA is sitting almost as high as us in most of the places and LOC is pretty much demarcated. And we have a whole division sitting on the LOC...surely that is an even larger burden.

Thanks, but no thanks. International assurances and pressure mean nothing to me. We need to be able to get our act going w/o caring for what the world thinks.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 20 Apr 2012 15:30

Well in that case , we would never achieve any agreement with Pakistan for sure , you dont trust them , you dont trust UN ,they dont trust you then there is little scope for any kind of peaceful negotiated settlement , things will remain as it is.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Kanishka » 20 Apr 2012 15:54

Peace can be made with a country that genuinely desires peace.
If Pakistan wanted peace it would have settled all disputes
with India long ago.

India should not hurry to settle any dispute including the Siachin
dispute. The advantage is ours. Let us keep it.

Let Pakistan bleed economically and become bankrupt or cease to exist.
Only then peace has any chance.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Lalmohan » 20 Apr 2012 15:57

i think the paquis are being opportunistic beggars as always - they have another opportunity to divert attention from the afghan front

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby rohitvats » 20 Apr 2012 16:16

Austin wrote:Well in that case , we would never achieve any agreement with Pakistan for sure , you dont trust them , you dont trust UN ,they dont trust you then there is little scope for any kind of peaceful negotiated settlement , things will remain as it is.


I'm doing pretty fine without having to trust pakees and burn my fingers and possibly everything else in bargain. The shoe is firmly on other foot...let them prove their honesty. On what basis are you, or anyone, asking for even trusting pakees when they wan't even authenticate AGPL? They want all the possible concessions without having to give anything in return. They are not looking for trust from Indians because they don't think they've done anything wrong. All this talk of being magnanimous is BS....we have been down that road once too often and in return have not got anything.

Let the things remain as they are - and let the pakees suffer because of their follies. Let us not shed any more Indian blood or money to take their bacon out of fire.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby govardhanks » 20 Apr 2012 16:25

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 733442.cms

Look at how sweet words have been written in news paper. I think TOI should have responsibility towards nation before writing something like this! :x . Siachen is very important and advantage that our nation should never loose. Pakis Dont believe them! :eek: .

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby abhijitm » 20 Apr 2012 16:36

Basically I don't understand why India should vacate Siachen? We can afford to stay there. The cost is peanuts for us.

More than that Siachen is Indian territory and hence its our internal matter. Other countries don't have a say whether we should be there or not. It is solely our decision.

If we vacate any territory with an agreement with any other country, it potentially means we are surrendering sovereign claim on that territory. As simple as that.

Austin, what is our official stand of Siachen? Is it within our national border or we agree it is a disputed territory?

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Lalmohan » 20 Apr 2012 16:38

the ministry's words are neither here nor there. it is non committal and if anything giving an ungli to the pakistani establishment - making fun of the fact that power is with the army. kiyani sounds like musharraf used to, repeating the same key words over and over again. perhaps they had the same media trainer?!

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby harbans » 20 Apr 2012 17:23

One of the most challenging things about entering into agreement of any sort with pakees is the concept of continuity -


This is one thing a lot of politicians miss out on. To know how Islamists respect treaties with the Kufr one must go through the Hadees and see how Mohammed respected treaties he signed when he felt weak. Politicians around the world make this mistake in overestimating the power of a treaty vis a vis Islamists. Sadat was killed just for that. ZAB had to renege on the Simla agreement and was soon executed. Nawaz Sharif was ousted too and Kargil foisted on India because NS and ABV were about to sign up some accords. Remember signing a peace treaty with an Islamic republic also can entail war foisted by other elements. This is a very crucial element in any dialogue with Islamic republics one must consider. Pakistan specifically so. It has reneged everytime. Everything around the Islamist revolves round an unwavering goal that of islamizing everything around losing n number of battles along the way is no matter of shame as long as the larger goal is achieved. It will be a very big mistake to abandon Siachen. Paki's are free to withdraw anytime they choose.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby ParGha » 20 Apr 2012 17:30

Austin, the Chinese can veto the sanctions just as the Soviets vetoed the 1971 sanctions on India. You are right, today there is no better mechanism for international conflict resolution than the UN, but that mechanism favors the party which holds the initiative -- unless you are one of the veto-wielding permanent members. India has no intentions of seizing the initiative, and India is not (yet) a Permanent UNSC member.

India's current ambassador, Mr. Puri (?), made a rather big claim when he took up his position in the UNSC (as a rotating member): He claimed, India has entered as a temporary member -- but it will not be leaving ever again. Let us see if the Man Mohan Singh administration makes good on that boast. The deadline in January 1, 2013. I am willing to give the government a lot of slack on foreign policy matters until then, but only in policy-terms; any actual action ought to be dated to January 2, 2013 or later. If India is inducted in as a Permanent UNSC member, sure, we can negotiate on Siachen, AFSPA, broadening India-China relations, etc. But negotiations must be conducted from a position of equality, and for all matters going into the United Nations, for India that position of equality is a permanent seat at the UNSC.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Indaruta » 20 Apr 2012 17:30

Any agreement made between katlaas and kufr wont last

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Tamang » 20 Apr 2012 21:54

ShauryaT wrote:Except for Brajesh Mishra, the rest were quite coherent. I do not know, what BM was trying to say.

Time for India and Pakistan to withdraw their troops from Siachen?


I was watching this live yesterday, and I didn't know till date that Pakistanis have zero presence anywhere on Siachen (thanks Col Shukla for spelling out that clearly). That they lie to the west of Saltoro Ridge which divides Siachen from PoK.

I think this point should be publicised on Indian media because vast majority of aam janta believes that Pakistanis also have presence on Siachen. One this is known, the opposition to any underhand deal on Siachen will only grow.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Prem » 20 Apr 2012 22:31

Indaruta wrote:Any agreement made between katlaas and kufr wont last

Its called Hudna
Duration of the Hudnah:

The Shafi`i school of jurisprudence set the limit of the hudna at 10 years, following the original stated duration of the Treaty of Hudaybiyya. If the treaty does not specify the time limit, it is considered invalid.The Maliki school of jurisprudence does not specify a time limit and they leave this matter to the jurisdiction of the head of state.Of course, this discussion of the duration of the hudna is only a glimpse of what’s available in the books of jurisprudence..

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Luit » 20 Apr 2012 23:16

“The universalism of Islam, in its all-embracing creed, is imposed on the believers as a continuous process of warfare, psychological and political, if not strictly military. . . . The Jihad, accordingly, may be stated as a doctrine of a permanent state of war, not continuous fighting.” — Majid Khadduri

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Surya » 21 Apr 2012 00:44

Shukla was really good emphasizing the financial bleeding the pakis are going through.

as for

Well in that case , we would never achieve any agreement with Pakistan for sure , you dont trust them , you dont trust UN ,they dont trust you then there is little scope for any kind of peaceful negotiated settlement , things will remain as it is.



Oh we can get an agreement after they show good faith and withdraw first. No go tell them to trust us.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Kartik » 21 Apr 2012 01:06

Austin wrote:Times have changed since 1971 , Today any violation of UN agreement would means sanctions if the party does not come to terms , worst it may also mean war under UN mandate if situation persists.

Today there is no better mechanism that exist then to have strong legally binding agreement between two countries backed by similar legal guarantees by UN/P-5 , thats the best bet.

Even dispute between other countries are being sought to be resolved under UN , there is nothing better that exist today.

Lets say hyptotically even if some future general decides to invade Siachen , the gain they might get by holding a cold desert versus the loss they might face under even mild UN sanctions are simply not worth the gamble.


Austin, with all due respect, do you really think that the UN will wage war against Pakistan if they choose to ignore a UN blessed draw down from Siachen? I don't think you really are that naive. China, Pakistan's overlord will veto any UN action. What do you think is happening in Syria today where China and Russia put roadblocks in the way of any UN action?

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby rohitvats » 21 Apr 2012 01:24

We've been down the naivety of "trusting" the UN before and expecting prudence from others..but no more. What is PA tomorrow offers some high profile agreement in Af-Pak to US of A in return for looking the other way while they retake Siachen? After, as far US and others are concerned - what goes their father's?

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Raja Bose » 21 Apr 2012 01:29

Before asking Pakistan for solid assurances as a prerequisite for withdrawing from Siachen, India should realize that Pakistan itself has been a victim of its own assurances.

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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Postby Anujan » 21 Apr 2012 02:07

Austin wrote:Legally binding agreement between two countries with legal UN guarantees would make life much easier

I have a better idea. Link it to IWT.


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