Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

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chaanakya
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 27 Nov 2012 23:06

These are the identified Missile silos near Golmund on the norther face of the hills. I count 10 of them and nine is used. Why do they keep 10th for?

If you scan the area surrounding it , you might notice defence positions of missile batteries .

Image

or Possibly they could use these DF21 Silos further North?? edited later: Sorry these are pictures of target test site.Missile silos are further west to Delingha.

Image

I, somehow , think Chinese might not target Tawang but some other city.... which one... Gauhati? Itanagar?

What is our reply if Tawang is hit??Sure We cant hit Beijing or Shanghai for that. That represents major escalation.
How about Chengdu..
Last edited by chaanakya on 28 Nov 2012 19:40, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Chinmayanand » 27 Nov 2012 23:16

Why is it India always fearful of escalating first ? How about blowing the Three Gorges Dam and whatever else gorgeous they have .

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 28 Nov 2012 19:47

Chinmayanand wrote:Why is it India always fearful of escalating first ? How about blowing the Three Gorges Dam and whatever else gorgeous they have .



That is what we have to see. Do we hit Beijing and are we prepared for response by 2014-16 timeline . What we need is to make sure that their ability to strike Indian cities is drastically restricted while retaining our ability to strike them.
Do we have them?
Tawang is not a big catch for Chinese and they know it while it does not indicate counter escalation by India it does provide them witg psychological advantage. So what could be Indian response ? By hitting Beijing are we prepared to decimate Delhi and Mumbai or are we sure that they have no capability to do so??

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 28 Nov 2012 20:31

Chengdu , kunming and chongqing are the three biggest countervalue targets close to us.

Dont think we will bother with urumqi or kashgar.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 28 Nov 2012 21:25

I think Chendu Military region controlled all deployment on india Border. It would be my first choice. Chongqing , Kunming could be next.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Misraji » 28 Nov 2012 22:24

I would rather have a diplomatic offensive at this time while *NOT* hitting any Chinese population centers, ala Kargil.
Have US+Japan activate their forces and mount pressure from the other end.

--Ashish

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 28 Nov 2012 22:30

Well diplomatic offensive must have been going on this whole time the war is raging on at the boder. But that is , perhaps, not in the scope of Viveks scenario. Chengdu is a military target with some collateral damages but little big to be handled by one missile with 1000 pound of warhead.. Tawang is not so much of a military target as brutal killing of civilians in cold blood for punishing them.
Last edited by chaanakya on 28 Nov 2012 22:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Chinmayanand » 28 Nov 2012 22:32

Misraji wrote:I would rather have a diplomatic offensive at this time while *NOT* hitting any Chinese population centers, ala Kargil.
Have US+Japan activate their forces and mount pressure from the other end.

--Ashish


US+Japan are awaiting your orders , Misraji . Go ahead !!! Don't forget to tell the Russian to follow suit.
What a pathetic line of thinking you got , :roll:

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Misraji » 29 Nov 2012 01:10

chaanakya wrote:Well diplomatic offensive must have been going on this whole time the war is raging on at the boder. But that is , perhaps, not in the scope of Viveks scenario. Chengdu is a military target with some collateral damages but little big to be handled by one missile with 1000 pound of warhead.. Tawang is not so much of a military target as brutal killing of civilians in cold blood for punishing them.


True. I would however think the Tawang attack would tip the diplomatic balance in our favor.
That could help us get external military pressure on the Dragon allowing us to complete our objectives in a better fashion.
Thus making it within the scope of the scenario.

And one does not fight fire with fire.
Hence attacking a civilian center does not gain us anything while wasting valuable resources and loss of stand.

I cant wait to see what Vivek has in store for us. Better or worse, it will definitely be more realistic!! ... :)

Chinmayanand wrote:What a pathetic line of thinking you got ,

Yawn. Shoo.

--Ashish

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 29 Nov 2012 07:01

I think its better not be a tit for tat in killing civilians. its better to knock out 3 big power stations or refineries for every such attack.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby RamaY » 29 Nov 2012 07:24

^ +1

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 29 Nov 2012 07:31

..esp if this is done with a salvo of missiles from a submarine around a couple of prominent cities in the eastern seaboard, in full public glare.

shenzhen or shanghai plunging into darkness for hours will be a devastating loss of H&D...apart from billions in industrial productivity loss. even better if the retreating strike submarine sinks a couple of FFGs found wandering around before making a clean escape. regimes like Cheen are very sensitive to H&D loss and protecting their "heartland", they like to fight on other people's turf and suffer damage only on peripheral peoples like those of yunnan(ethnic minorities) and tibetans and uighurs who are untermenschen.
same was true for tokyo regime in WW2. the dolittle raid while achieving little in military terms forced them to pull back some Zero fighter squadrons from conquered lands for homeland defence. for good measure sink a couple of container ships bound for the pearl river as well in shallow depth so they settle on the bottom and stick out burning and helpless for the TV crews

the sinking of those cheen ships will automatically raise the cost of insurance for china shippers as well. bartania insurance cos are always hovering like drones to take a cut.

the murders in tawang need to be avenged with interest!

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby RamaY » 29 Nov 2012 07:49

^ true. It is the logical strategy too. Local inconveniences out weigh farther catastrophies. By hurting the interests of population in the areas near to C&C, the leadership can be forced to de-escalate the situation. Imagine tens of hundred thousands of Chinese demanding immediate attention to lack of electricity, gas and civic comforts.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 29 Nov 2012 09:15

similar to the Dolittle raid but perhaps bigger impact was a fleet of *nine* american subs equipped with the first submarine sonar sets ever that infiltrated the sea of japan from the south , past deadly minefields, wandered around for a couple weeks sinking ships and then made their escape to the north near sakhalin. one sub was lost for unknown reasons, the rest made it back. savage loss of H&D to have american subs in the "inland sea" of japan which they always took as their bastion. btw UC san diego made this first submarine sonar...it was carried from the lab straight to sub for immediate trials.

this superb book has it all..a real pleasure to read
http://www.subsowespac.org/books/hellcats.shtml

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby nash » 29 Nov 2012 09:29

what would be weapon of indian reply- shaurya because its range can extended to 1800Km with 200Kg warhead, it all depend on launching position as it have a TEL.

Agni-I or II would be great option but it might push more china to its Nuclear threshold.

There is not much air-cover left from PLAF so massive Air strike can be option but force multipliers of IAf already stretched to their maximum limit.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 29 Nov 2012 15:13

DAY 8 + 1925 HRS (L)

THE CITY OF TAWANG
WESTERN ARUNACHAL PRADESH
INDIA


As the sun set over the western peaks of the Great Himalayan Mountains, leaving the reddish shade of light over an ever darkening skies above, the population of Tawang could hardly notice the end of the eighth day of the war over their homes. Or what had been left of it…

When the Long-Sword cruise missile had detonated in airburst mode over the city of Tawang several hours ago, it had been like there were two suns in the sky. One of which had a rapidly expanding radius that soon hit the ground, reflected and then hit it again until the bright light was accompanied by a wall of flame as it swept everything before it. The white snow above the city had flashed away instantly along with the rest of the hills inside the valley. Then the massive thunderclap reverberated through the region and a mushroom cloud of dust rose through the sky, leaving a little piece of hell behind on the ground below. That was several hours before.

The fires were still blazing away from the center of the city above which the Chinese warhead had exploded and was now spreading to the outskirts in a blazing firestorm, a result of the closely structured homes and the wooden nature of their construction. The city’s fire fighting abilities were primitive even under peacetime conditions and there was no hope of combating this tidal wave of fire as it swept through the entire city, gutting it to the ground. The center of the city was a smoldering crater of charred black husks over a kilometer wide of asymmetric shape. The hilly terrain over which the city was built had protected some areas from the blast but had shunted the blast waves more strongly over other sectors of the city like a massive nozzle.

As the fires raged, threatening to burn down what remained of the rest of the city, the only hope left was for the evacuation of citizens out of their homes and to send them south of the area, at least as far as Se-La and preferably all the way to Tezpur to avoid congesting the only lines of supply the Indian army had to the Bum-La sectors and also to prevent leaving the citizens of Tawang in the open against the snow and cold winds of the Himalayan winter. A lot of people were already doing this, of course. Many had already left the city when the fighting between the two armies had threatened to start over two weeks ago. Once the actual fighting had started, the army had put a stop order to the southerly movement of large number of people because it was choking the only logistical artery via Se-La to the Divisions fending off attack on Tawang. But they could hardly hold back the tide of panicked and shocked people trying to get their families out of the area before the Chinese struck again.

The army was also now having to task crucial personnel from its fighting units and on the supply route behind to help clear out the people of Tawang from the massive tragedy that had engulfed them. In a way the Chinese had achieved military goals in an act of savagery against an unarmed civilian population. By forcing the Indian army units in the sector to have to deal with this massive exodus of civilians across hundreds of kilometers of mountainous terrain, they had relieved pressure from themselves along sectors of Bum-La. Here the Indian army had been preparing for a series of local counter-offensives, after having thwarted the Chinese ground offensive over the last week. Now that had to put off until the supply lines behind could be cleared off the refugees and massive casualty-evac convoys that were moving on the roads. Plus the infantry units had been forced to relieve any free personnel they had to help evacuate the citizens of Tawang before the fires reached them. As difficult to believe as it was, the snow all around was not helping douse the flames. Much of it had turned instantly to water and disappeared off into thousands of rivulets through the city’s roads and gullies before the flames got anywhere close.

Morale had taken a beating as well amongst the Indian population in the region as well as the Indian army units who were witness to the massive devastation wrought on unarmed civilians. Several media reporters had based themselves in Tawang when the war had started, providing the same feel of war to each and every home in India as the Kargil war had done. But when the missile struck the town, it also took the lives of a good portion of the media pool there as well their equipment. In the immediate aftermath of the strike, most news channels instantly lost all contact with their field teams. Many were knocked off the air the instant the warhead exploded above the city and had not been heard off since. Chaos and confusion followed soon afterwards as news channels attempted to explain what had happened. It added to the fear and shock for the rest of the country and fueled it further.

The ripple effect of such an event spread quickly through the country and across the world…

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 29 Nov 2012 15:50

DAY 8 + 1935 HRS (IST)

OPERATIONS CENTER
STRATEGIC FORCES COMMAND
INDIA


“Bloody hell!” Valhotra said and let out a deep breath.
“Indeed,” Iyer stated as he picked up the first satellite imagery of the destruction over Tawang, Tezpur airfield and Jorhat airfield that had arrived a short while ago at the SFC. Army UAVs north of Tawang had already been redirected quickly back over the city to confirm live within minutes of the attack what the satellite imagery was now showing in sobering clarity. The chaos following the attack was not restricted to the people of India and the media alone. The unexpected savagery had caught the military and the government by surprise as well. The Army was scrambling all resources at its disposal in the three locations struck to help out while the Air-Force was attempting to re-evaluate its combat potential in the east after taking severe damage to two of its major airbases in the region, not to mention the large loss of personnel, equipment and several Su-30s as well as two An-32s on the ground. On the government side, the officials were attempting to allay fears and bombardment of questions from the media about the attack and India’s response to it once the massive civilian casualty estimates had begun airing on the news all over the country and the rest of the world…

“This is going to force our hand,” Valhotra said as he leaned back in his chair and put his hands behind his head, mentally evaluating what future options existed. Iyer nodded his agreement. Putting aside the brutality of the Chinese missile attack on the city of Tawang, it was easily apparent that the goals for the attack were as much military as they political or psychological. The attack on the town had brought out the expected public outrage all over India. It had also pushed back the Indian army’s offensives north of Bum-La and into Chinese controlled territory as Lt-General Suman had been planning. The loss of two airbases had crippled the IAF’s ability to maintain larger number of aircraft in the air above Arunachal Pradesh for the next day while the damage was assessed and the bases restored to operational status. And the losses in military personnel were a permanent blow to the IAF strength that could not be resuscitated except by removing personnel from bases in Southern India.

But for all the tactical good it did for the Chinese, it was still as much a strategic feint designed to lure India into a fight it could not hope to win in the long run. It was in fact the modern equivalent of what the RAF Bomber Command had done during the Battle of Britain when they had struck civilian targets in Germany at a time when the Luftwaffe was close to eliminating the RAF Fighter Command’s ability to hold off the attacks by striking incessantly at the British airbases. Back then emotionality had played into the British hand when Hitler had ordered a change in focus from British airbases to their cities, allowing the RAF to recover from the initial beatings and ultimately to defeat the Luftwaffe in battle. The Chinese were hoping for something similar…

They were counting on the emotions of the Indians and the power its citizens could bring to bear on the government to respond at a time like this. They were very much hoping, nay counting, on an Indian response. The idea was simple. The PLAAF had been pushed to the strategic defensive mode as a result of IAF operations in both the Ladakh sectors as well as the Lhasa sectors. With the PLAAF presence pushed all the way north to Korla, Golmud, Urumqi, Chengdu and Lanzhou sectors, the skies were clear for the IAF to go into strike mode on the ground in support of its army and to continue to prevent the Chinese from bringing in ground based reinforcements by striking roads and bridgeheads. More to the point, there were only few options for striking back in a manner similar to what the Chinese had done. The Nirbhay was still in testing phase at the moment and not available for deployment. The Brahmos GLCMs were restricted to the battlefield support role and capable of reaching targets only in Tibet. There were a few economic targets that could be hit, but they could also be hit with air-stirkes and did not merit use of precious cruise missiles. The IAF had already begun forward deployment of its small force of conventional Prithvi missiles, but that was more of ad-hoc response based deployment rather than an objective one. Neither Iyer nor Valhotra could see any targets close enough to be attacked with those missiles anyway.

But if the Indian government tasked Iyer and his SFC to arm precious missiles with conventional warheads for a strike mission, there were plenty of options across the Chinese mainland that could be hit in response. The question was whether that was what Beijing expected India to do…

Iyer, Valhotra and the rest of the operations staff at the SFC had spent the last day refining the general nuclear attack plan for the Chinese mainland should the DF-21Cs in northern Tibet and the DF-31 ICBMs in mainland China be launched. They had come up with a variety of strike options depending on different scenarios. But the question on everybody’s mind was the wild card: the conventionally armed DF-11s and -15s that were peppered across southern Tibet. How would they be used? The question of ‘where’ was something the SFC already knew based on how the Brigades were deploying inside Tibet. The range of the missiles told that story already. But under what conditions would they be used?

What was the trigger?

I think we just found that out… Iyer thought as he tossed the satellite images back on the table and leaned back into his chair. This was going to get nasty…

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby member_19930 » 29 Nov 2012 15:57

Vivek Sir, eagerly waiting for your next post.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 29 Nov 2012 16:05

DAY 8 + 2055 HRS (L)

NORTH OF CHONGKHAM
SOUTHERN BANKS OF THE BRAHMAPUTRA RIVER
EASTERN ASSAM


In a secluded clearing south of the river, the activity was hectic. Indian army platoons were deployed and heavily armed for combat and using night-vision goggles to scan the terrain around. They created a solid perimeter around a kilometer wide circle behind them. No civilians were allowed here over the last week. Now, the silence of the night was replaced with the humming noises of generators as activity spiked up. Officers walked back and forth between the command trailers and the other vehicles around, each busy with some aspect of his work or the other. In between, three launcher vehicles remained covered under the camouflage nettings strewn over them. The warning orders to this detachment of the 335 Missile Group had come down from the commander of the SFC in anticipation of authorization from the national command authority...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby nash » 29 Nov 2012 16:38

so are we going to launch Agni-II ? where at civilian area or missile site or military base..? And if it is a missile site and if we took out, somehow, their nuclear BM from equation, then .... lot of if and but... :-?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby jamwal » 29 Nov 2012 17:37

Agni -II with conventional warheads ?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby RamaY » 29 Nov 2012 18:13

Ok I am lost. Did china use conventional or nuclear warheads with their long swords?

Can a conventional warhead cause 1KM radius zone of destruction?


Thanks Vivek ji! Bliss to show that Indians can make decisions and can be equally brutal when situation demands.
Last edited by RamaY on 29 Nov 2012 18:20, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 29 Nov 2012 18:16

RamaY wrote:Ok I am lost. Did china use conventional or nuclear warheads with their long swords?

Can a conventional warhead cause 1KM radius zone of destruction?


Conventional airburst. Terrain not flat and circular. And that 1 Km was diameter, not radius.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 29 Nov 2012 18:20

RamaY - pls read about the fire bombing of toyko and how wooden houses burned in a chain for miles. 100K people killed. more than nagasaki or hiroshima.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Ghatotkacha » 29 Nov 2012 23:22

There are non-nuclear bombs which can cause damage far greater than 1KM radius

Google MOAB and similar Russian version

Read this
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread79375/pg1

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby RamaY » 29 Nov 2012 23:45

^ That I know sir. I was thinking about the useful conventional payload on cruise missile. I couldnt get the payload info on long sword.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Ghatotkacha » 30 Nov 2012 01:25

That's good question RamaY!

Maybe someone else or Vivek might able to answer that. Meanwhile, I can only speculate, Chinese might have developed something like that by 2014 timeline.

---------------------------------------------------

Looking at news buzz around new mountain strike corp and IAF aggressive forward deployment in NE, it looks like Vivek scenario is being actively read elsewhere too.

It will do Indian military planner only good if they go through Vivek's Scenarios. I believe, the brain power Vivek has spent on these scenarios might someday prove far more useful than being mere interesting fictions for us.

If I were in-charge I would have made Vivek scenario as mandatory read for all in Eastern and Northern Command. :)

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Sanku » 30 Nov 2012 09:35

Ghatotkacha wrote:If I were in-charge I would have made Vivek scenario as mandatory read for all in Eastern and Northern Command. :)


As a aside.

The staff in IA regularly build their own scenarios, of course they do not have the literary quality, and are mostly "documenterish" however they do model war scenario's attrition rates, strike points, choke points. Etc etc.

When MoD say "India is prepared for a two front war" -- it means, many generals have spent hours in sand boxes maps and computer, modelling various engagements at different levels.

The problem is never with IA not knowing its scenario's.

But yes, perhaps this scenario should be a mandatory for every babu working at MoD.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 30 Nov 2012 09:54

the CJ10 and its derivatives is a mystery so far. people have seen photo of its TELARs so we know its size, but no clear photos in google images come up.
http://i988.photobucket.com/albums/af8/ ... DF31-1.jpg
http://pic.newssc.org/0/11/54/61/11546168_242785.jpg
http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/attach ... e3d14c.jpg

its a big fat missile and as long as brahmos for sure. which , with subsonic speed indicates a huge range and high payload (perhaps 1t of explosive)

its cousin the CJ20 can be carried 4-6 on the H-6 bomber. here is a photo...release from the center of tibet , these can likely target anything in all the north indian states.
http://forum.globaltimes.cn/forum/attac ... 1260497662

this family is their flagship, trump card, MIB, steel frame of empire and so on...

we can expect stealth shaped versions soon if the current model is basic round cylinder.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 30 Nov 2012 09:58

one of their trump cards has been the continued production and incremental improvement to the H-6 bomber purchased way back. it can carry 4-6 ALCMs of any vintage and is a useful supplement to ground based units.

once we get nirbhay going, probably we should work with boeing to develop a bomb truck version of the P8I, with 4 ALCMs slung externally (2 under the wings inboard of the engines), and 2 in a side by side pylon arrangement below the fuselage, same place where they hang harpoons now but beefed up. internally the cabin can wear a bare look and have only additional fuel tanks, EW gear and two stations for the mission operator and EW systems operator. maybe a seating area for extra crew, a couple bunks, toilet and galley.

first mission with tanker support should be to bombard a iceberg on the edge of antarctic ice sheet and come back.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby nash » 30 Nov 2012 10:08

I am not sure US will allow us to do that kind of tweaking with their toys.Our best bet will be, I think, MTA variant if it come in time.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 30 Nov 2012 10:17

I am not talking of bootleg projects, but a officially sanctioned project with Boeing. no harm in asking. if they refuse, then yes MTA is an option OR we can resurrect the defunct A321 MPA program from EADS and tune it to our needs, MTA -- its fuselage , speed, range is inferior in the bomber role due to its cargo hauler design. bombers need to be fast, long range, low drag, with slim but strong fuselages..all dedicated bombers follow that model including the H-6.
and cargo haulers have very low ground clearance due to gondola outrigger wheels. nothing can be slung below fuselage, so under wings will be only option or the costly and complex rotary bays again suited to slim fuselages only.
in contrast the 737 presents a middle ground and easier conversion opportunity.

P8 has two tandem (inline) pylons below fuselage for harpoons. needs some beefing up there for a single pair of side by side nirbhay. I am deleting the rear pylon to avoid ground scraping issue with a bigger missile in nose flared up landings.
ER tanks are already in the P8 I believe. we can delete the LRMP seats and add more. mission systems are already ruggedized, EW systems installed, radar is there, so is crew seating and comforts, FCS tuned to bank 45' bank angle vs 28' on civilian model....its ready to roll..and no internal bay needed either...use the sonobuoy bay to launch countermeasures if needed...and maybe the LWT torpedo bay can host another couple petite slim micro-brahmos :twisted:

far more realistic timeline vs MTA.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby jamwal » 30 Nov 2012 11:46

Use Russian bombers instead.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Misraji » 30 Nov 2012 11:55

jamwal wrote:Use Russian bombers instead.


You mean *INDIAN* bombers ... :mrgreen:

--Ashish

PS: Chorry. Could not resist.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Bala Vignesh » 30 Nov 2012 12:31

The DH-10 on which the CJ-10 is based on, can carry a nuclear payload of around 20-60kt or a single HE , based on wikipedia.. So that would mean around 200-400kg payload capacity for the DH-10 so for the CJ-10 it would be around 600-800kg payload, I guess..

Gurulog, please correct me if I am wrong..

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby saje » 30 Nov 2012 12:46

Love the way this scenario is progressing parallel to developments in real world -- I remember reading something in an article wherein the Chinese have let known indirectly that they will use nuclear weapons in the event of their conventional warfare capability being 'whooped'.

I remember reading in a scenario here (Singha's scenario? or some other's) wherein India responds to a Paki nuke attack by nuking the base from where the attack originated. Nuking military targets with 'small nukes' is a good idea and I think our nuclear philosophy is following similar lines. I strongly feel we must change the 'No-first-use' to 'No-first-use-on-civilian-targets'... this would instantly cause second thoughts on those trigger happy fingers on Nasrs and DF-21s.

Since this scenario started with Tibetan unrest, I would've expected it to end with the Tibetan cause. Likewise, I would have responded by asking the Tibetans all over India to pack their bags. Then detonate an EMP 'bum' over Tibet, shoot down chinese satellites, nuke military targets in TAR and basically cut off TAR from the rest of China as we did to East Pakistan in '71. Then when the smoke clears, we'll have Tibetans from India happily selling sweaters and what not in TAR while the Dalai Lama poses for pics in the Tibetan palace !!

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 30 Nov 2012 12:56

jamwal wrote:Use Russian bombers instead.


I would rather have the uptime of a swank new p8 and boeing OEM support team. H6 works for Cheen because they probably make every nut and bolt inhouse by now.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 30 Nov 2012 15:13

DAY 8 + 2135 HRS (L)

AIRSPACE OVER NORTHERN BHUTAN


The arrival of a second airborne radar signal over the horizon from the north was detected by the sensors on board the CABS AEW aircraft as it patrolled over the Tsenda Kang. The signal was processed and revealed to be that of a KJ-2000 AWACS. The PLAAF were left with three active airframes of this type in their entire force following the IAF operations against these aircraft in southwestern Tibet. One of these was based out of Korla and flying patrols in rotation with a KJ-200 AEW in order to maintain a round-the-clock presence over southwestern China. The two other KJ-2000s were rotating in a similar manner out of Golmud and attempting to keep a continuous presence over southern and central Tibet. All remaining KJ-200s were to the east of Chengdu on purely defensive duties as part of an integrated air-ground defense line around Chengdu and south from there. As far as the war was concerned, unless the IAF ventured as far out as Chengdu, the KJ-200s operating in rotation there were of no consequence. The Korla and Golmud aircraft, though, were still a concern.

The current pair of KJ-2000s was currently exchanging patrols over the Nam Tso, east of the forward airstrip at Dangxiong, now used only by a solitary flight of J-8IIs on point-defense duties in case the IAF decided to go after the airborne radar aircraft yet again. Additionally, J-11s from the 19TH Fighter Division flying out of Urumqi were keeping a much stronger presence near these aircraft after past experience that led to the loss of one KJ-2000 northeast of Hotien two days ago. They now had a virtual wall of J-11s around these radar aircraft to ward off IAF attacks. But in doing so they were being strictly defensive. The days of sending flights after flights of aircraft south to engage the Indians under the direction of these airborne radars was now long past.

Both sides were sticking to their sides of the border for now. The IAF Eastern Air Command was still reeling from the loss of airbases at Tezpur and Jorhat. Su-30 force levels in the eastern skies had dropped to an all-time low since the start of this war and had pushed the IAF to defensive operations for now. There was no concentration of aircraft left to go on the offensive against these last vestiges of PLAAF power in Tibet. So for now both the Indian and Chinese airborne radar crews in the skies above Tibet had to content themselves with intelligence gathering operations…

As the second KJ-2000 took over and the first one shut down its radars and retreated back to Golmud, the radar crew on board the Indian aircraft noted the time and put down the tracking history for the radar aircraft rotating out of Golmud. The EW operator on board sent off the sit-rep to the operations center at Shillong, leaned back into his chair and rubbed his exhausted eyes as the flight crew up front brought the aircraft on a southerly heading out of Bhutanese airspace to refuel with a IL-78 tanker that had just lifted off from Kalaikunda. To him this process was as routine as having three meals a day, but somebody a lot senior to him at Shillong had probably decided that knowing the aircraft schedule for the Chinese 26TH Air Division out of Golmud was interesting.

Had he not been so physically exhausted after nine days of continuous combat operations, he might have had a chance to think this through. They were supposed to have been on rest right now as the second crew for this aircraft rotated for the next eight hours. But they had been caught on the ground when Tezpur had gone down. Unlike the Phalcons, the CABS aircraft were almost always deployed closer to the battlefields in a relative sense because of the lack of tankers to refuel so many aircraft flying out from long distances to the FEBA. And Tezpur had been secure for the last week and a half. But the surprise Chinese GLCM attack had done a lot of damage. For this crew and aircraft, it meant that a large portion of its replacement crew had been killed in action. So now there was little choice but to continue with one crew and grab whatever rest they could, when they could.

So as the aircraft headed south for an airborne refueling operation, the only thing the operators in the cabin could think of for now was the one hour of sleep in their seats and the hope that others in Shillong knew what they were doing...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 30 Nov 2012 16:06

DAY 8 + 2200 HRS (L)

SONEGAON AIR FORCE BASE
NAGPUR
INDIA


As the undercarriage of the large B-737 BBJ transport aircraft touched the concrete, the puff of smoke rolled off and traced out of the wing vortices behind while the aircraft ran down the runway. The vibrations inside subsided soon enough and the Defense-Minister removed his seatbelt and got up despite the disapproval of the IAF sergeant nearby. But there was no time for any of that, he told himself as he saw the other senior government officials doing the same and walking back to the conference room on board while the aircraft outside taxied to the tarmac for yet another refueling operation and change of flight-crews. From one of the few windows opened for a brief moment to get his bearings, he could see the five IAF Garud special-forces teams in their vehicles escorting the aircraft as it taxied. He closed them back down and took his seat at the table while the Prime-Minister walked in. The latter leaned forward and pressed a button on the teleconference system embedded into the table:

“You better listen to this,” the PM said irritably. “You there, Ravoof?”
“Yes sir,” the distant voice of the Foreign-Minister came through.

“I have the usual people on this side. You want to recap what you told me a few minutes ago?” the PM ordered politely.
“Very well. I have just given out our first official press-conference since the Chinese missile attacks on Tawang this afternoon. The press is livid. So are the people. The conference went as bad as can be expected. All they wanted to know was how we allowed this to happen and what and when our response was going to be,” Dr. Ravoof said impassively.

“And? What did you tell them,” the Defense-Minister asked.
“What do you think? I told them that the Chinese attack was a brutal murder of civilians and completely unwarranted. I also told them that India reserves the right to respond but that we cannot comment on ongoing military operations.”

The Defense-Minister sunk back into his chair. “Good. That’s all we need to tell them at the moment.”
“But that doesn’t cut it as far as I am concerned,” the PM said, visibly angered now. “I want to know what we intend to do about this? Where is our response? And when?”

The Defense-Minister rubbed his forehead and looked over to the NSA sitting next to him before he looked back to the Prime-Minister.

“So here’s how it works: We have the Chinese beat on the ground and in the air over Tibet. The Chumbi valley for the most part is under our control. The Chinese presence in Bhutan is becoming tenuous as General Potgam launches his counter-offensive to take back lost territory. The Chinese ground offensive in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh has ground to a halt at heavy losses to both sides. And the Navy has begun operations to shut down the Chinese merchant shipping through the Indian Ocean region. There is still the issue of dealing with the Chinese fleet entering the southern Indian Ocean region but Admiral Surakshan has plans to deal with them. So the Chinese are reeling under all this and now intend to use the one advantage they have over us: missiles. They have a lot more conventional and nuclear armed missiles than us and they will use them if they have to. This attack on Tawang, savage and painful as it may be, is nothing more than the dying lashes of a snake. What they want now is for us to get into a missile war with them. And that’s a war we do not want to get into because unlike the ba$tards in Beijing, we don’t want to see a lot more of what happened in Tawang happening over the rest of the country.”

“This doesn’t help me any,” the PM shouted out. “If we don’t respond then the people of this country are going to hang us up to dry. China cannot be allowed to get away with this!”

“And they won’t! But acting rashly is exactly what they want us to do!” the Defense-Minister shouted back. The NSA decided to enter this argument:
“Besides, what are we going to strike back with? The Chinese attacked us with long range cruise missiles. We don’t have any in our service. I spoke to Air-Marshal Iyer a little while ago and he assured me that he can deploy some Agni-II missiles for a counter-strike against Chinese targets. But the Agni-II is a ballistic missile. We launch those, and the Chinese will get the pretense to fire more than two hundred of their DF-11s and DF-15s based in Tibet at targets across northern India. Our ability to wage conventional war will be completely devastated.”

“But they are anyway going to use those missiles soon enough! That was what Iyer told us in our last meeting with him! So why does it matter whether we strike now or not!” the PM said as he turned his gaze to his NSA.
“That may be true. But it is better to fight a coordinated war than a precipitous one, is it not?” the NSA asked in his schoolmasterly voice. The PM was not convinced. The Defense-Minister leaned forward:

“The SFC is putting together a coordinated action plan for us. But here’s the bottom-line: we know the Chinese have missiles in Tibet. We know where they are for the most part. We have long endurance UAVs that entered Tibetan airspace a few hours ago and are monitoring these launchers continuously. And we have our own missiles and aircraft at our disposal. Give Iyer and the IAF commanders the time to set their plans in motion. When the time comes, we will unleash the wrath of hell on the Chinese. But for now, we must not act out of turn. Bite the pain! Our time has not yet come.

“But remember this: when this is all done, the escalation to Nuclear weapons will be inevitable. What we need to do is to draw a line in the sand to ensure that China knows the consequences of any action with nuclear weapons. Perhaps the Russians can be asked to open a discreet line of conversation with Beijing. The main danger here is that we are not seeing an end to this war from a military perspective. Neither side will give up the war in defeat. So we have to find out what is the real cost of peace, else we will all find out the real cost of war…”

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 30 Nov 2012 16:24

DAY 8 + 2300 HRS (L)

TASHICHHO DZONG
THIMPU
BHUTAN


Colonel Misra walked through the door leading to the top most terrace of the building and was instantly met with a wall of cold winds. The two paratroopers manning the observation-post here looked back from their positions to see him and then turned back to their tripod mounted optics pointed towards the northern outskirts of Thimpu and beyond. Misra walked out on to the terrace and could barely make out anything of Thimpu in the darkness until he strapped on his night-vision goggles and activated them on. The slight hum on activation and Thimpu appeared to him, awash in green. He immediately saw the outlines of the two Mi-26s as they hovered near the northern outskirts, near the clearings created for them to bring in the rest of his battalion. As a large rumbling noise overtook the noise of the howling winds, the building walls vibrated somewhat. Misra walked over to the edge of the terrace and looked over to see a line of BMP-IIs that were making their way in a convoy through the narrow streets of Thimpu on their way to join the offensive against the Chinese light-infantry brigade at Dotanang. As the vehicles made their way along the road, their auto-cannon turrets kept sweeping left and right for targets. General Potgam had pulled all the strings he could with General Suman to get these Mechanized forces airlifted to Paro airfield and then driven up from there to Thimpu. Now they were here along with the rest of his paratrooper force. Spear team had also been inserted. He smiled as he walked back into the building to rejoin his staff at the makeshift command center on the ground floor. It was time to play…


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