Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 12 Dec 2012 12:18

DAY 9 + 1100 HRS (L)

THOUSAND KILOMETERS NORTHWEST OF THE KEELING ISLANDS
THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION


The leading Brahmos missile shattered into a thousand pieces of burning steel as an HQ-9 air-defense missile slammed into it at ten meters above sea level. The burning debris splashed into the waters at supersonic speeds and the shockwaves caused a massive transient concave cavity on the ocean surface before the water poured back in and rose up into the air like a volcano. As the wall of water fell back into the frothing ocean, two more Brahmos missiles screeched by at two times the speed of sound. Other two HQ-9 missiles fell behind and dived into the surface of the ocean.

Other HQ-9 missiles were in the air now, but they weren’t diving down into the incoming Indian anti-ship missiles. They were arcing high into the bright blue skies above as they went after the three Indian Su-30s that were now diving back to sea level at full afterburner behind a wall of chaff a hundred kilometers to the northeast. They would soon be out of the range of their intercepting missiles, but the ship and its crew that had launched those HQ-9 missiles: the Chinese 052C class Destroyer, the Lanzhou, had other more pressing concerns to take care of at the moment…

The Chinese Sovremenny class Destroyer, the Fuzhou, listed to the side and splashed deep through the waters on evasive maneuvers and turned to port while the Lanzhou moved across its starboard, exposing the full view of its close-in weapons to the two incoming Indian missiles. A kilometer back, the other 052C Air-Defense ship with the Chinese fleet, the Haikou, was already in position and its weapons opened up before the Lanzhou’s. The starboard side of the ship was covered with light smoke as the guns filled the skies with a wall of expended ammunition and a line of yellow tracers walked out from both ships just as two specks on the horizon streaked by at lightning speeds.

The first Brahmos missile streaked straight by the gunfire intended for it while the second shattered under the impact of bullets. The Captain of the Lanzhou had a good intercept angle on the second missile. But the first missile passed by the bow of the ship and slammed through the stern of the Fuzhou as it completed its evasive turn. The massive fireball shredded the aft of the ship and the still engine blades and hub detached from its driving shafts and flew into the air, over the Lanzhou to the stunned views of the bridge crew and splashed into the waters on the other side…

The Fuzhou started taking on water as it became dead in the water. The thick black column of smoke rising from the second half of the ship and the licks of flame rising into the air left no doubt about its fate. Those few lucky sailors on the front half of the ship that survived began jumping into the ocean just as the bow of the ship rose above the waterline and the Fuzhou began sinking back into the ocean stern first. The sailors in the waters near the ship were swimming as far from the massive ship as they could before it went down next to them.

But while the Fuzhou lay there gutted and sinking, the other two Sovremenny class ships in the Chinese fleet went into action against the sudden arrival of Admiral Surakshan’s Surface Action Group led by the INS Delhi to the northwest. Both the Hangzhu and the Ningbo headed straight into the Indian SAG and the ships shuddered as half a dozen supersonic Moskit missiles were ripple fired from the massive bow launchers of the ships. The missiles travelled very depressed trajectories as a result of their angled launchers and left the booster smoke trails behind on the launch ships before going supersonic and disappearing at sea level. The Captain of the Hangzhu noted in satisfaction from the bridge as he spotted large white vapor cones on his missiles as they broke through the sound barrier in the humid waters…

The Haikou went into action as well as it steamed at full speed to take position ahead of the two remaining Sovremenny ships in anticipation of the Indian counter-fire. The latter two ships broke formation and began turning away from their launch azimuth, leaving the 052C air-defense ships to do what they did best.
The Indian response was not long in waiting either. Admiral Surakshan knew exactly where the Chinese ships were because he had the P-8I aircraft trailing them from outside the defenses of the Chinese ships ever since they entered the waters of the Indian Ocean region more than a day before. The Indian ships followed INS Shivalik’s lead and began ripple firing Brahmos missiles from their vertical launch canisters in quick succession. The Delhi, Shivalik and other ships of the SAG were armed with subsonic Klub and Switchblade missiles as well, but these were reserved for action once the Brahmos missiles broke through the air-defense bubbles of the Chinese fleet and collapsed them. Within seconds of each other, eight Moskit missiles and twenty four Brahmos missiles were flying through the air and crisscrossed each other at supersonic speeds and merely a dozen meters above sea-levels…

The Haikou detected the threat and fired a salvo of HQ-9 missiles as fast as they could be cycled through the CIC computers against inbound targets. In all, seven Brahmos missiles were shredded from the skies by the Haikou before the Lanzhou caught up as well and took down another six missiles. But eleven missiles still managed to punch through once the two ships and their air-defense systems had been overwhelmed. The Hanfzhu and the Ningbo as well as all other Chinese warships opened up with their close-in weapons and filled the skies with a barrage of flying bullets, knocking out three more Brahmos missiles in that desperate melee before the final eight missiles broke through and hit their targets.

A series of thunderous explosions ripped through the calm seas and eight orange-yellow fireballs rose into the skies in quick succession, visible from kilometers around. By the time the noise dissipated away, seven different columns of black smoke rose were climbing into the blue skies above. The Lanzhou had been ripped into two by double impact of two Brahmos missiles near the same location of the ship in quick succession. The bow of the ship listed to the port and sank quickly below the roiled waters, followed soon by the remaining sections of the ship. The Haikou was dead in the water, its superstructure gutted from bow to stern and fires raging as sailors jumped into the waters below. The Hangzhu was still moving, albeit at very slow speeds as its crew attempted to control the fires raging in the aft of the ship. The Ningbo, was already listing heavily to port and its hull was far below the waterline on that side that what it should have been. Two other fleet support ships were also gone and the massive thunderclap and explosion announced that to all ships around for kilometers as the fleet’s resupply tanker detonated and shredded itself to pieces…

To the northwest, the Indian SAG was in not much better shape. The Moskit is a very potent missile and the Indian ships, lacking an effective air-defense dedicated ship, had engaged the incoming missiles with their onboard Barak anti-missile systems. Four of the incoming eight Moskits had been engaged and destroyed before they could reach the ships. One more fell to the Shivalik’s close-in weapons seconds before the three remaining Chinese missiles had ripped their way through the Indian ships. The INS Delhi’s superstructure was shredded and covered in a black column of smoke and fire as it became dead in the water. The Shivalik and the Satpura took direct hits and were decimated. As in the Chinese case, the surviving Indian sailors from both ships were jumping into ocean from the burning wrecks of their ships as Sea-King helicopters from the other ships of the group began rescue operations just as the bow of the Satpura slipped below the waters of the Indian ocean...
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 12 Dec 2012 14:00, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby disha » 12 Dec 2012 13:06

Great post!

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 12 Dec 2012 13:27

pandyan wrote:Interesting turn of events...wouldnt IN engage enemies from outside of moskit range using Brahmos? how were they using P-8 real time intelligence, Su30 real time feed and their corresponding offensive systems? :evil:


Brahmos missiles in low-low-low range is almost same as moskit. Missile launched in this mode to avoid providing extended engagement range to the HQ-9 guidance radar + missile system, hence LPI on incoming missiles.
SU-30s used to pull 052C ships on different azimuth just before SAG contact also to increase missile survival to impact...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 12 Dec 2012 13:47

the Talwar class ships could carry a mix of supersonic and subsonic klub(not sure if we have the subsonic model) , but cued by P8 these 300km missiles could be launched in a salvo from well outside the low level range of the Moskit.
harpoon missiles could be also be released from P8I planes from max range as a way to needle the cheen ships.
I would also borrow 8 SU30s from the IAF each with 1 brahmos to launch the initial salvo in addition to the above before letting my ships come in moskit range...given their lack of a long range AAW oriented ship. and those naval Jags could be used too, releasing exocets to overload the defences and more vitally max out the ability of the combat systems to control in-flight missiles chasing these bait while the brahmos slip in lo-lo-lo

but thats life - nothing is ever paper perfect.

US navy F18 practice a mode called swarm attack in which planes fly from different directions and speeds before releasing harpoon missiles. this the IAF would definitely know and practice. the SU35BM CG video on youtube even has a animation of 4 x SU35 doing this against a ship. again the idea is to max out the ability of ship combat systems to control in-flight missiles which are semi-active or not yet in active mode for final phase. APAR can control 4 in each quadrant. EMPAR by virtue of rotating back to back panels can allegedly control 16 in any quadrant and so can the ICWS system that controls ESSM. SAMPSON is alleged to be the most TFTA and control a ungodly number of aster15/30.

if you look at the new Japanese escort DDG Akizuki class, they have radar panels mounted very high up using two specially designed masts for a very long LOS and no doubt a means to control a huge swarm of ESSM missiles.

another limit on older ships is co-operative engagement capability. a network is needed to allocate fair share of targets to the ship best located for it rather than multiple ships independently going for any target which leads to some targets missed and some targets needlessly engaged by many missiles. the IN for sure does not have this yet and neither does cheen or russia. I think the "link 16" seen on USN ships and maybe some of the latest nato aaw ships permits this...not sure if anyone other than USN aegis ships has this capability enabled though. khan always keeps such "force multipliers" for his own use.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby nachiket » 12 Dec 2012 14:03

Singha wrote:I would also borrow 8 SU30s from the IAF each with 1 brahmos to launch the initial salvo in addition to the above before letting my ships come in moskit range...given their lack of a long range AAW oriented ship. and those naval Jags could be used too, releasing exocets to overload the defences and more vitally max out the ability of the combat systems to control in-flight missiles chasing these bait while the brahmos slip in lo-lo-lo

The problem is, only the MKI's from the last order of 40, which went to KnAAPO will have the strengthened fuselage enabling them to carry the AL-Brahmos. Only part of the order would be fulfilled by the time of this scenario and most (if not all) of them would be deployed in the north. I'm not sure if the Jags would have enough range to reach the location where this battle occurred.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 12 Dec 2012 15:25

point taken. but the P8 and IL38 Mays could release some harpoons and sea eagles , and anyone like delhi class still carrying the uran could ripple fire them as well.
the enemy has to respond to such threats and waste the SAMs, if they dont these are pretty deadly too. even small corvettes if available could create noise in the bushes, fire off 16 urans and turn tail at high speed.

the thing is it need not be a short sharp all or nothing encounter but stretched out over a few hrs or even a day with periodic attacks taking out a ship or two - kind of like how wolves or jackals chase and wear down prey...kind of like how bismark was sunk.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby sarabpal.s » 12 Dec 2012 16:16

http://www.amazon.com/Tanker-Wars-Iran- ... 186064032X

everything is in Very detail for Anti-ship war and strategy adopted by Both Iran and us. both know the range of there missile and keep them self out of that envelop and attack wherever possible.i read it well and come to know that dud weapon is quite common in US.
Good effort though

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby anand_sankar » 12 Dec 2012 17:20

@Sarabpal

Thanks. Sounds a good read.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Chinmayanand » 12 Dec 2012 18:47

I thought some chinese moskits will fall mid-way into the ocean. After all , chinese build quality is also an important factor . :roll:

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 12 Dec 2012 19:48

the Cheen commander would also have fired off all his YJ83 ASM not just the Moskits as a second salvo...or maybe fired the YJ83s ahead of the Moskits to tie up the limited number of barak directors.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby kapilrdave » 12 Dec 2012 19:52

HQ-9 killing half of Bramhos and Barak missing half of Moskit? :roll:
Akash alleged has a kill probability of 88% for the first and 99% for the second missile on a target. Barak is supposed to perform better than that? What is the kill probability of a modern anti aircraft gun?

No disrespect to Vivek though. He is doing a wonderful wonderful job. A job that I only dream to do but know as a fact that I will never be able to. Thanks.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 12 Dec 2012 20:03

Singha wrote:the Cheen commander would also have fired off all his YJ83 ASM not just the Moskits as a second salvo...or maybe fired the YJ83s ahead of the Moskits to tie up the limited number of barak directors.


I thought the YJ-83s were not yet installed on the Sovremenny ships in the PLAN?

As far as subsonic decoys for high supersonic missiles are concerned, you need to factor in the TOT and numbers/launch-platforms as well. Not that simple to coordinate as it sounds and I just don't see the Indian Navy having that level of ISR to pull off such a mass coordinated attack. Perhaps in the future that will change.

kapilrdave wrote:HQ-9 killing half of Bramhos and Barak missing half of Moskit?


A lot more HQ-9s fired off than the Barak missiles by two ships dedicated for that role (the HQ-9 engaged at longer range and therefore had a greater volume of fire directed at incoming missiles. Barak-1 is shorter range point-defense missile compared with the S-300 adapted HQ-9 system and has very limited engagement times for fast supersonic missiles). It also makes a difference having specialist ships for certain roles besides the impact factor of the individual weapon system.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby titash » 12 Dec 2012 21:01

@ vivek_ahuja

Great job sir!

Just my 2 cents - the AD capability of the IN is going to expand by leaps and bounds over the next 10 years. *ALL* our new Frigate/Destroyer inductions except the Trikand will be mounting ELTA 2248 + Barak-8 giving a semi-AEGIS capability

3x Project-15A (fitting out)
4x Project 15B (materials ordering started)
7x Project 17A (Mazgaon/GRSE undergoing modular upgrades for the same)

I suspect the western fleet over time will comprise of 3x Brahmaputras/6x Talwars/3x Delhis and most of these more capable units willl move to the eastern fleet

I don't think the PLAN is standardizing the Type 348/HQ-9 across the board on all new warships

Regards,

Titash

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby sarabpal.s » 12 Dec 2012 21:34

anand_sankar wrote:@Sarabpal

Thanks. Sounds a good read.

your welcome ji.


where is tu142 with brahmos.

no ship go Down fast. again in book amrican ship face real hard time to sink Irans frigate and there own ship survive with the direct blast of mine which broken her bow.
also there is a lots duds missile and system from world class U.S. navy.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 12 Dec 2012 21:54

sarabpal.s wrote:where is tu142 with brahmos.


TU-142s were shadowing the Chinese fleet alongside the P-8Is (read previous sections of the scenario). The Andaman Island based SU-30s carried out the Brahmos attacks.

sarabpal.s wrote:no ship go Down fast. again in book amrican ship face real hard time to sink Irans frigate and there own ship survive with the direct blast of mine which broken her bow.
also there is a lots duds missile and system from world class U.S. navy.


Some ships will go down fast while others won't. Being hit by a Mach 3 kinetic weapon + warhead (and depending on ship size, angle of impact, design of ship etc) is very different from a subsonic missile hit or even a deep water mine. And apart from test shots, the Brahmos remained untested in combat today (so is the Moskit IIRC). Its effect on a actual in service warship is likely going to be very different that all past experiences. Arguments like "no ship go down fast" are not applicable as a blanket statement unless we are comparing apples to apples.

In the above scenario, an overall 10 ships (Indian and Chinese) were hit with either the Brahmos or the Moskit missiles.
Out of these, two ships (one 052C that took two direct hits from brahmos missiles and the INS Satpura) were the only ones that went down quickly.
Three other ships (Shivalik + two Sovremenny ships) went down after substantial period of catastrophic fire and damage.
Five other ships (PLAN fleet tanker + auxilliary + one Sovremenny + 1 052C + INS Delhi) took hits that caused massive fires that caused them to become combat ineffective and dead in the water but still afloat (The PLAN fleet tanker that exploded was still afloat, albeit only as a charred hull).

Perhaps the last line of the scenario left many a reader with a foul taste in the mouth? :-?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby sarabpal.s » 12 Dec 2012 22:15

vivek_ahuja wrote:
sarabpal.s wrote:where is tu142 with brahmos.


TU-142s were shadowing the Chinese fleet alongside the P-8Is (read previous sections of the scenario). The Andaman Island based SU-30s carried out the Brahmos attacks.

sarabpal.s wrote:no ship go Down fast. again in book amrican ship face real hard time to sink Irans frigate and there own ship survive with the direct blast of mine which broken her bow.
also there is a lots duds missile and system from world class U.S. navy.


Some ships will go down fast while others won't. Being hit by a Mach 3 kinetic weapon + warhead (and depending on ship size, angle of impact, design of ship etc) is very different from a subsonic missile hit or even a deep water mine. And apart from test shots, the Brahmos remained untested in combat today (so is the Moskit IIRC). Its effect on a actual in service warship is likely going to be very different that all past experiences. Arguments like "no ship go down fast" are not applicable as a blanket statement unless we are comparing apples to apples.

In the above scenario, an overall 10 ships (Indian and Chinese) were hit with either the Brahmos or the Moskit missiles.
Out of these, two ships (one 052C that took two direct hits from brahmos missiles and the INS Satpura) were the only ones that went down quickly.
Three other ships (Shivalik + two Sovremenny ships) went down after substantial period of catastrophic fire and damage.
Five other ships (PLAN fleet tanker + auxilliary + one Sovremenny + 1 052C + INS Delhi) took hits that caused massive fires that caused them to become combat ineffective and dead in the water but still afloat (The PLAN fleet tanker that exploded was still afloat, albeit only as a charred hull).

Perhaps the last line of the scenario left many a reader with a foul taste in the mouth? :-?

dear dont take it on himself self you done a great, you are right in scenario.
as you said most of weapon is not yet tested In full scale war of 21century it is true yaar. please carry on

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 12 Dec 2012 22:37

I think many of these chinese convoys might be taken care of by FORTAN and FENAC at Andaman unless of course it is taken out by massive missile strike. Capabilities of AN, after establishment of Tri Services Command , is not much publicised or documented in general media.
SAG might have better run than predicted here.

One strike at Golmund makes CMC members scamper to bunkers in Beijing. Whar does this mean? Do they fear possibility of nuclear strike by India on beijing?? Interesting. Does it indicate imminent nuclear pre-emptive strike on Delhi??

What would make them back off? As a civilisation, are they so concerned about H&D that they would rather commit harakiri rather than living in shame for next 60 years? Would they give away all that they achieved so far, before the war, and take India down with them?

And how far are we prepared to go in War with China?

I would like to know reactions of top planners/political decision makers in India and China.

Awesome writing , Vivek. When your book comes out , I would place pre-order.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 12 Dec 2012 22:39

sarabpal.s wrote:dear dont take it on himself self you done a great, you are right in scenario.
as you said most of weapon is not yet tested In full scale war of 21century it is true yaar. please carry on


Nothing taken to heart or anything. :) I have learnt to absorb the stones and rocks that the posters here throw on me every once in a while. The skin goes thicker with each strike... :rotfl:

But to be sure, I would like to be called out on anytime I am wrong in detailing something or if I make a mistake somewhere with regard to something within the scenario. This is very much an interactive forum and I certainly make a lot of mistakes that I catch later and fix. Other times the readers here give me certain ideas that I otherwise would not have considered at all. So its really not a big deal to come out and say: "Vivek, that was bull$hit what you said and here's the reason why: ... "

And let's have a discussion about it. But at the end of the day let's not be scared of conclusions from such a discussion/analysis if they don't favor our team. So if a certain analysis shows that the Chinese can do some damage in a certain situation, the scenario will reflect that in all its brutality. Other times, I am sure the Chinese lurkers here will be cringing when they hear what the scenario analysis has to say with regard to say, the PLAAF capability in Tibet etc.

Win some, lose some. But either way, come out stronger and better informed.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 12 Dec 2012 22:47

chaanakya wrote:I think many of these chinese convoys might be taken care of by FORTAN and FENAC at Andaman unless of course it is taken out by massive missile strike. Capabilities of AN, after establishment of Tri Services Command , is not much publicised or documented in general media.


Su-30s were indeed from AN. But as far as how much firepower is concentrated there, the IN fleet will have a lot more and less vulnerable because it is mobile. Also remember that the AN assets are involved in blockading the Malacca straits too, so the assets are distributed over a large area: no concentrated strike possible unless other sectors are stripped of resources.

chaanakya wrote:SAG might have better run than predicted here.


Correct. So there is a human error element in war as well, right? There will be good commanders commanding bad ships to victory and bad commanders leading good ships to defeat. History is full of them and the future war is not run by robots. Mistakes will happen. Always have.

Other times, resources/time will force commanders to take action when otherwise they could have played it out more to their advantage. Again, history is full of such cases.

chaanakya wrote:One strike at Golmund makes CMC members scamper to bunkers in Beijing. Whar does this mean? Do they fear possibility of nuclear strike by India on beijing?? Interesting. Does it indicate imminent nuclear pre-emptive strike on Delhi??


Once India has shown the intent to use ballistic missiles, what is to stop them from taking out key peacetime command centers in Beijing if they are continued to be occupied? (From the Chinese perspective I mean. From the Indian side, there are limitations to the type of missiles used etc but the Chinese don't know what's going on the Indian mindset at this time) This is that critical moment when the war has come home to Beijing for the CMC and no longer restricted to the far reaches of their land borders.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 12 Dec 2012 23:18

Dear Vivek.

I understand what you are saying. I mean , in absence of your posts, we are just thinking aloud. You are under no obligation to reply or comment.If it proves distraction we might like to refrain.Pl Remember, I joined BR first to say few words of appreciation for your writings.
Please ye dil maange more. Gimme Red.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 13 Dec 2012 00:02

Chaanakya,

By all means, think out loud! And continue doing so. Find and poke holes in the scenario so that I can fill them up and make it better. I will concentrate on writing scenarios but will chime in from time to time to offer some points to the discussion.

Frankly, the way the China Military watch thread is going, the quality of discussion here by various posters is actually proving to be in-depth and excellent filler/analysis between scenario posts. You have a thought: then air it so the rest of us can hear and build on.

Regards

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 13 Dec 2012 08:13

the 052C ship have the 8xYJ83
you can see the tubes behind the hangar http://i.imgur.com/mCKgk.jpg

in your scenario one 052C was lured away chasing the su30s while the other took 2 brahmos hits. this particular ship would no doubt release all YJ83 to add to the moskits from sovremeniy's

it is smaller than moskit but supersonic and has enough range for the engagement in question
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-803

so thats 8 more hostile missiles in the mix.

secondy for such a top heavy SAG, you would expect atleast 3-4 FFG for the screening and scout role. whether 054 or 054A, they all cary 8xYJ83 which again can be fired in concert with the moskits arriving in a second wave.

Cant the Shtil missiles carried by either side like the IN ships and the 054 class also engage the sea skimming missiles?

likewise the Indian ships would fire off all their Urans rather than wait n watch. the Delhi itself can release 16 and accompanying ships of ganga/godavari/brahmapura/kora class can add 16 each. always better to soak up the HQ9's chasing these and then deliver the killer blow with a second wave of brahmos after some of the 1st wave have leaked through and caused some damage.

imo a clash between two such SAGs would be a multi day affair of probing and intermittent attacks not a one hour cagefight.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 13 Dec 2012 08:51

Singha wrote:the 052C ship have the 8xYJ83
you can see the tubes behind the hangar http://i.imgur.com/mCKgk.jpg


I see the tubes but the 052C were last known to be deployed with the YJ62, not the YJ83? I may be out of date here.

secondy for such a top heavy SAG, you would expect atleast 3-4 FFG for the screening and scout role. whether 054 or 054A, they all cary 8xYJ83 which again can be fired in concert with the moskits arriving in a second wave.


China already lost a few 054A ships before on convoy escort duties. They cannot commit their entire fleet to the Indian Ocean though. They still have a coast of their own. Still, I see your point.

Cant the Shtil missiles carried by either side like the IN ships and the 054 class also engage the sea skimming missiles?


They can and they did (didn't mention explicitly in the scenario).

likewise the Indian ships would fire off all their Urans rather than wait n watch. the Delhi itself can release 16 and accompanying ships of ganga/godavari/brahmapura/kora class can add 16 each. always better to soak up the HQ9's chasing these and then deliver the killer blow with a second wave of brahmos after some of the 1st wave have leaked through and caused some damage.


Agreed. And that's one valid strategy. On the other hand the argument is that 24 brahmos missiles are plenty sufficient. They got through and did the job.

Now the argument could be that they could have launched the Urans as bait, have the PLAN use up all their HQ-9s on these and then use greater standoff distance to launch Brahmos attacks at higher altitudes. Fair enough. Valid tactic.

The main point here is also the Indian ability to defend against a swarm attack by enemy supersonic missiles. And there we could use dedicated AAW ships/longer range weapons.

imo a clash between two such SAGs would be a multi day affair of probing and intermittent attacks not a one hour cagefight.


Fair enough. And on a side note, the SAG action above was the culmination of over two days of tracking and luring before initiation of an all azimuth attack. But if you can swarm and sink enemy ships at will during a short sharp engagement, why would you want to prolong it given the events taking place on the mainland?

Aggressiveness and a willingness of take losses can perhaps be advantageous for greater psychological impacts beyond the battlefield?

We have to think beyond the ships and weapons and consider the overall war effect here as well.

Anyway, several valid points in your arguments there.
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 13 Dec 2012 08:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby nachiket » 13 Dec 2012 08:52

Yes the Shtil missiles were missing in action. Or aren't they good enough to engage the Moskit and Brahmos?

The P-8's also didn't fire their Harpoons.

Edit: Oops! Didn't see Vivek's reply.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby bmallick » 13 Dec 2012 08:55

Hi Vivek Sir, awesome writing. The first thing I have been doing for the last few months is to check whether a new post from you on this thread. Thanks a lot for indulging us and giving us your scenarios.

One question, in this naval battle, I guess most of the missile launches have take place beyond 50-80 km range. Which means that the launching ship would require Over the horizon targeting support. In the IN SAG case you have specifically mentioned the presence of a P8-I, shadowing the PLAN group. So it might have provided the OTH targeting information for SSM launch for in the IN SAG. However, you have not mentioned any such eye for the PLAN Group, hence a bit intrigued by how they could launch their missile to hit IN ships. Moreover, if the PLAN group had launched any such airborne platform in the air for targetting, wouldn't that too detected by the Indian P8-I and probably crafts launched to intercept it or deny its usage.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 13 Dec 2012 09:05

bmallick wrote:One question, in this naval battle, I guess most of the missile launches have take place beyond 50-80 km range. Which means that the launching ship would require Over the horizon targeting support. In the IN SAG case you have specifically mentioned the presence of a P8-I, shadowing the PLAN group. So it might have provided the OTH targeting information for SSM launch for in the IN SAG. However, you have not mentioned any such eye for the PLAN Group, hence a bit intrigued by how they could launch their missile to hit IN ships. Moreover, if the PLAN group had launched any such airborne platform in the air for targeting, wouldn't that too detected by the Indian P8-I and probably crafts launched to intercept it or deny its usage.


At these ranges, the missiles can be expected to use their onboard guidance systems for terminal detection and engagement once they enter the general area of the enemy ships. Most missiles these days will have ability to use on board active radars to find their targets once they enter the area. And at the speeds and distance involved, the enemy ships cannot disperse much at all in that limited time. So the OTH targeting is useful for longer ranges and slower speed missiles since a course correction would be necessary to get the missile into an area where the onboard system can take over. However, precision trageting of specific ships inside a fleet can be done if you have better sensors and real time ISR. With the P-8I only shadowing the Chinese fleet, some such information was used by the Brahmos, but not real-time targeting info because of the range beyond which the P-8I had to stay to avoid the 052C AAW ships.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 13 Dec 2012 18:47

one thing missing is atleast a couple Shang SSN to escort the chinese SAG and likewise a few indian kilos with klubs lying in ambush positions. with no cheen a/c in the region these kilos can transit on the surface at top speed to pre position themselves ahead of the cheen SAG. the shang SSNs should be fast enough to keep up with their ships and snoop around trying to land heavy blows on indian shipping.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Avarachan » 14 Dec 2012 02:44

Vivek,

A couple of comments regarding the naval battle.

1) Where is the INS Chakra (the Akula-II class sub leased from Russia)? I would have expected it to be involved.

2) What do you think of the "anti-aircraft-carrier" version of the BrahMos? Dr. Pillai has said that it is based on the supersonic-dive variant ordered by the Army (BrahMos I Block-III). This, combined with the fact that the range of BrahMos is now extended due to advanced navigation systems from Russia, means that the BrahMos can now credibly attack naval targets at ranges of 300-500 km. Because the missile no longer has to fly low-low-low, it can fly for greater ranges. With an S-type supersonic dive, it can penetrate anti-missile defenses. I know that terminal maneuvering consumes a lot of fuel, so I expect the BrahMos's effective range in a maneuvering profile to be 250-300 km, not 500 km. But that's still more than double the range of the 120-km Moskit.

3) A general point about the weapons-procurement strategy of the Indian military. I'm surprised that in this naval battle, the Indian fleet got into a missile slugfest with the Chinese fleet. A war of attrition is not to India's advantage. Because India generally respects other countries' intellectual property, India has been able to purchase top-shelf assets from other countries. Also, increasingly, India is developing them on its own (through the efforts of brilliant Indian scientists). India will be able to leverage these assets to create enormous headaches for the numerically-superior but technologically-inferior Chinese forces. Some examples:

- Harop loitering drones (with a 1000-km range)
- Crystal Maze standoff missiles (I'm not sure why you have Jags making direct passes over Chinese airbases when India has these.)
- the EW fit on Su-30 MKI's (I don't think that the losses that the MKI took against the J-8II's were realistic, when it is widely acknowledged that the avionics of the MKI are more advanced than that of China's top-of-the line MKK.)
- INS Chakra (The Akula-II class can penetrate cutting-edge American ASW. It will annihilate Chinese ASW.)
- Barak 8 (The Barak 8 has performed well against the BrahMos in evaluations in Israel, and the BrahMos is significantly more advanced than the Moskit. For example, the Moskit is 50% heavier which means it's less agile.)
- Etc.

Anyway, please keep writing! I love your work. I would appreciate a response, though, because I think Indians have a tendency to overstate Chinese capabilities and understate Indian capabilities. India and other countries are not stupid: they have taken steps to counter China's theft and mass production of low and mid-level technologies. China does have a few high-tech items: I agree that the CJ-10 cruise missiles are formidable. But, in general, India has a considerable technological edge over China.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 14 Dec 2012 03:45

Avarachan wrote:1) Where is the INS Chakra (the Akula-II class sub leased from Russia)? I would have expected it to be involved.


SSBN screening duty, northern Malacca Straits.

2) What do you think of the "anti-aircraft-carrier" version of the BrahMos? Dr. Pillai has said that it is based on the supersonic-dive variant ordered by the Army (BrahMos I Block-III). This, combined with the fact that the range of BrahMos is now extended due to advanced navigation systems from Russia, means that the BrahMos can now credibly attack naval targets at ranges of 300-500 km. Because the missile no longer has to fly low-low-low, it can fly for greater ranges. With an S-type supersonic dive, it can penetrate anti-missile defenses. I know that terminal maneuvering consumes a lot of fuel, so I expect the BrahMos's effective range in a maneuvering profile to be 250-300 km, not 500 km. But that's still more than double the range of the 120-km Moskit.


The Brahmos on the lo-lo-lo profile was always around the 120 km mark. The 300+ km range comes from flying a hi-lo profile that brings it into range of longer ranged SAMs such as the S-300s etc. I believe all other improvements have been developed, but the increased range estimate for lo-lo-lo remains roughly the same. (I may have missed some very recent developments on this, though. So if you have any data on the new range of the missile, please let me know)

I'm surprised that in this naval battle, the Indian fleet got into a missile slugfest with the Chinese fleet. A war of attrition is not to India's advantage.


Taken alone, you are correct. And Singha and others have raised this issue above. However, in the context of time crunch because of events on the mainland, certain less than ideal tactics that nonetheless bring out quick results were used. And poor execution by commanders also a factor here. Each battle will not be a perfect scenario of technological metrics involving perfect commanders from both sides. Mistakes will be made as they have done throughout history.

- Crystal Maze standoff missiles (I'm not sure why you have Jags making direct passes over Chinese airbases when India has these.)


The Jaguars were using area strike Sensor Fuzed Munitions on the airfield, not striking single targets, hence the need to fly overhead and releasing them. Crystal Maze etc deployed against targets such as incoming Chinese reinforcements on highways inside Tibet and striking tanks etc in the DBO sector (first three days of the war).

I don't think that the losses that the MKI took against the J-8II's were realistic


:shock: :shock: which scenario post are you talking about here? In almost all cases the J-8IIs were decimated in large numbers throughout the scenario!

China does have a few high-tech items: I agree that the CJ-10 cruise missiles are formidable. But, in general, India has a considerable technological edge over China.


Yes, but also remember that Indian Armed forces (and Chinese forces for that matter as well) have never fought a fully integrated network-centric war at large scales (demonstrations for the media in the desert notwithstanding; it takes an enemy shooting back to really test a warfighting machine) and mistakes will be made, rest assured, but both sides.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 14 Dec 2012 03:50

Singha wrote:one thing missing is atleast a couple Shang SSN to escort the chinese SAG and likewise a few indian kilos with klubs lying in ambush positions. with no cheen a/c in the region these kilos can transit on the surface at top speed to pre position themselves ahead of the cheen SAG. the shang SSNs should be fast enough to keep up with their ships and snoop around trying to land heavy blows on indian shipping.


Chinese subs were already at war attempting to break the Indian Naval control of the Malacca straits during the initial days of the war. And they took losses there against Indian subs and anti-submarine aircraft from the AN area (Refer first seven days of the war posts). Its only their failure to do so that caused the Chinese fleet to take a roundabout route into the Indian ocean.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Karan M » 14 Dec 2012 04:36

There is one thing missing in the naval missile scenario. EW soft kill. Most navies nowadays depend more and more on their onboard EW suites to protect themselves against missiles. On ships, the comparably larger volume and power availability (versus mobile trucks or aircraft) makes them capable of pretty large EW suites.
Indian Navy ships field Ajanta, Ellora and Israeli EW suites. All of these have high power phased array jammers.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 14 Dec 2012 05:30

pandyan wrote:Somebody needs to be punished. :mrgreen: :twisted:


Your point is taken! :)

Can I get my last cigarette and blindfolds at least? :mrgreen:

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby hpatel » 14 Dec 2012 06:04

Agreed :-)

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Avarachan » 14 Dec 2012 08:43

Vivek,
My response regarding the range and survivability of the BrahMos is in the missile thread. Thanks for the reply.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby rajanb » 15 Dec 2012 21:13

pandyan wrote:^^^ Saar...your punishment: one BIG scenarios post every day :mrgreen:


Vivekji, hope you are going to enliven our Sunday. :(

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 16 Dec 2012 14:10

Where is my Sunday Dhamaal Mix????
Vivek ji pleaseeeeeeeeeee....

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby sarabpal.s » 16 Dec 2012 14:35

probable updating sea scenarios according to our update.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 16 Dec 2012 14:55

I am not worried over sea scenarios. They are as realistic as could have been. We had our Khukari Moment too.
If we are tracking them Chinese for days befor engagement we would simply drop bombs on them from High altitude bombers or drones.

What I am interested to see is what panda is discussing inside the hardened bunkers outside Beijing and reaction to strike on Golmund. Are they going to factor in loss of Chengdu and Chongqing or possibility of attack on beijing and Shanghai if they escalate.


By This time Kashgar would have declared independence?? Any possibility that China losses control of outmost provinces while fighting with India on its Southern Border.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 16 Dec 2012 14:59

Recent foray of China into SL and Maledives is to setup Ari bases to secure Malacca strait route which is lifeline for Chinese economy. So if war erupts we have to deny use of that capability to China in the beginning. We need both diplomatic maneuvering and military preemptive threat , much before the war looms large, to achieve that.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby nachiket » 18 Dec 2012 05:23

chaanakya wrote:If we are tracking them Chinese for days before engagement we would simply drop bombs on them from High altitude bombers or drones.

Which bombers and drones? And why bombs when cruise missiles are available? Any bombers would be shot down long before they got close to the ships.

And yes Vivek saar, we are eagerly waiting for next installment.


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