Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Chinmayanand » 07 Jan 2013 17:46

It is time to send some bhuut jhalokia to Liu .

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivekmehta » 07 Jan 2013 17:48

i fear a nuclear strike on Indian forces in Tibet.......

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 07 Jan 2013 20:10

Are they ready to preside over the Nuclear ruins in Beijing? Air Strike should guive them sufficient indication of Indian resolve and capability to strike mainland ( or Island) of China. Let them not forget that Arihant is somewhere lurking for and order. Russian interlocutors have been informed of the Indian intention to be conveyed to Beijing.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby V_Raman » 07 Jan 2013 21:09

I think the idea could be to make China use few of its BMs inside Tibet rather than on civilian soil on mainland India...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby parshuram » 07 Jan 2013 21:36

chaanakya wrote:Are they ready to preside over the Nuclear ruins in Beijing? Air Strike should guive them sufficient indication of Indian resolve and capability to strike mainland ( or Island) of China. Let them not forget that Arihant is somewhere lurking for and order. Russian interlocutors have been informed of the Indian intention to be conveyed to Beijing.


With two Battered Chinese Divisions annihilated, Conditions are tailor made for a sub-yeild/Tactical Nuclear strike to wipe out our forces. may be in Bhutan as well..

That way there will no clear winner ...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby chaanakya » 07 Jan 2013 22:49

V_Raman wrote:I think the idea could be to make China use few of its BMs inside Tibet rather than on civilian soil on mainland India...

If I remember correctly Raju Karumanchiri did moot a fairly similar idea where forces of enemies are allowed to gather inside your territory and then nuke them . No body can say that they used sub KT Nuke against their population or in their territory. The question is would Chinese be so stupid to do something like this.

And how do we respond to use of tactical battlefield nuke to finish gathering army within ones own territory?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 08 Jan 2013 01:12

NEW CHINA NEWS AGENCY
RADIO BROADCAST
DAY 10 + 2230 HRS


BEGIN INTERCEPT//BRAVO-TWO-NINER//TIBETAN THEATER OF OPERATIONS//ORIGIN LHASA//OPEN CHANNEL INTERCEPT//

“…the European Nations have shown their tacit approval of the Indian aggression against the people of China by attempting to spread vicious rumors through its so-called ‘free media’. In Beijing today, Chairmen Peng’s office denied all rumors that the southern island of Hainan was struck by Indian missiles. The western media simply attempted to sensationalize the dreadful airline accident that took place when a China Cargo airliner crashed on arrival at the airport, killing all eighteen passengers on board. An investigation is currently underway and the government is determined to discover the true cause of the accident. In an unrelated incident, our comrades in the People’s Liberation Army Navy continued their wartime readiness exercises at other Hainan airbases including Lingshui and Ledong, dropping multiple practice bombs on the training ranges nearby. The citizens of Hainan are asked to remain calm and stay in their homes and not to place calls to their local party officials. Announcements will be made once sufficient investigation of the China Cargo airliner incident is completed.

In other news, the Ministry of National Defense released an update today on the progress of our soldiers in the People’s Liberation Army against the Indian aggression on the Himalayan borders. The statement put to rest rumors in Lhasa that had been circulated by Tibetan rebels to the local population to instill fear and anxiety. The police are investigating the source of the rumors while the ministry quoted Colonel-General Liu as saying that those arrested for spreading these rumors during wartime will be severely punished. Colonel-General Liu also reiterated the statement made earlier by Chairman Peng’s office that operations against the Indians go well overall despite ‘minor’ setbacks on a small section of the front. Our comrades in the Land Forces are even now preparing to deal the final punitive blow to end this Indian aggression against our peaceful Tibetan brethren once and for all…”

//END INTERCEPT
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 08 Jan 2013 04:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby RamaY » 08 Jan 2013 01:18

^ Vivek ji,

Did you forget the rumor that Tibetan rebels attacked a Chinese Missile Regiment and have control over few nuclear missiles?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Prem » 08 Jan 2013 02:29

Tactical Nuke on spread put formations wont be of good use, especially when it will definitely lead to Tibetan Independence or merger with India and bringing war closer to heartland with brandishing of strategic weapons. Chinese will have more to loose in this scenario as they will have to commit their very existence to teach India a lesson in humbleness. They will be forced to lash on every perceived enemy and competitors by lobbing all of their nukes thus bringing every military power in play doing same before the lights go off and nuclear winter dawns on globe.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby hpatel » 08 Jan 2013 03:14

Vivek,
Question - did you run combat simulations on software you got or did you develop it yourself?
:-)
Hemant

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby svinayak » 08 Jan 2013 03:27

Jhujar wrote:Tactical Nuke on spread put formations wont be of good use, especially when it will definitely lead to Tibetan Independence or merger with India and bringing war closer to heartland with brandishing of strategic weapons. Chinese will have more to loose in this scenario as they will have to commit their very existence to teach India a lesson in humbleness. They will be forced to lash on every perceived enemy and competitors by lobbing all of their nukes thus bringing every military power in play doing same before the lights go off and nuclear winter dawns on globe.

Free Tibet with Nuclear weapons is the only option. Long Term option

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Misraji » 08 Jan 2013 03:42

As it is the two divisions are boxed in as of now.
If they can be squeezed from all the sides without allowing them to break the siege, that would be intense.

Two division's worth of POWs is a big bargaining chip.
Lets see the Politburo put a spin on that one.

--Ashish

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 08 Jan 2013 04:24

hpatel wrote:Vivek,
Question - did you run combat simulations on software you got or did you develop it yourself?
:-)
Hemant


I developed my own version of the software for this. Its not pretty but it allows me to integrate numerous differential equations (eg: Logistics Interdiction, Air-combat, tanker ops, strategic land-warfare, ISR and so on) simultaneously with a lot of time dependent variables in there. So its basically a number crunching algorithm for now.

RAND Corporation, as I mentioned, has a version of this tool they developed for the US military but also for their own internal use that has much better (intuitive ?) interface and easier to load numbers in there. They also have some advanced Land Warfare models that I have been unable to replicate with open source material. So my model is more primitive for that.

But I dare say my air-warfare model is as good as theirs based on what I can find.

Of course, the key here are the coefficients driving the equations and these come from a lot of confidential data that RAND folks get to see and work on alongside the US military and other government institutions.

I have no such government level assistance for what it is I do. Maybe at some point some think-tank will be interested in talking to me about it and giving me access to more data, but in the meantime I will continue to write novels using what I have. :)

-Vivek

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby V_Raman » 08 Jan 2013 07:10

BMs on massed troops need not be nuclear. They can be conventional. I dont know if the Chinese will like to acknowledge POWs. Hit them with conventional BMs and also get Indian troops. Then blame it on Indians as cross-border aggression.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby RamaY » 08 Jan 2013 08:28

Vivekji,


SathamAnam bhavathy SathAyu: Purushasyatha
Indhriya yEva Indhriya tE Prathithishtathi ||

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Khalsa » 08 Jan 2013 12:33

Vivek
A question for you.

How did the Sukhois and the Midas get South China Sea(SCS)/ Hainian Island.
i.e. how did they go from Bay of Bengal to SCS

did they remain over water or did they fly over any country.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 08 Jan 2013 13:01

Khalsa wrote:Vivek
A question for you.

How did the Sukhois and the Midas get South China Sea(SCS)/ Hainian Island.
i.e. how did they go from Bay of Bengal to SCS

did they remain over water or did they fly over any country.


Over water. Roundabout route around Singapore and then up the side of the Vietnamese coastline (with their "tacit" permission). One refueling on the way and another on the way back over the sea a hundred kilometers off the coast east of Ho Chi Minh city.

-Vivek

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby nits » 08 Jan 2013 13:10

Sir Radio Broadcast is too small for our daily diet... :(

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 08 Jan 2013 13:16

nits wrote:Sir Radio Broadcast is too small for our daily diet... :(


That was merely filler saar. Pliss to be patient onlee. 8)

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 08 Jan 2013 13:27

if thailand gives tacit approval another shorter way is over the Kra isthmus ... that would cut 1500km and 2 hrs of flying time... laos and cambodia are not in a position to do anything and we'd be emerging over international waters after crossing the isthmus. distance would be like kochi to tezpur....MKIs would need one refuel, preferably south of vietnam

http://www.archatlas.dept.shef.ac.uk/Po ... lide03.jpg

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby nits » 08 Jan 2013 14:11

vivek_ahuja wrote:
Khalsa wrote:Vivek
A question for you.

How did the Sukhois and the Midas get South China Sea(SCS)/ Hainian Island.
i.e. how did they go from Bay of Bengal to SCS

did they remain over water or did they fly over any country.


Over water. Roundabout route around Singapore and then up the side of the Vietnamese coastline (with their "tacit" permission). One refueling on the way and another on the way back over the sea a hundred kilometers off the coast east of Ho Chi Minh city.

-Vivek


Chini Bhai will sure go Red as it will be utter clear to them all this has happened with mute support of Vietnam...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 08 Jan 2013 14:47

but vietnam did not permit us to overfly their territory or sea water upto the 15km limit.
they are under no obligation to report to anyone these unknown contacts on ATC/AD radars.

likewise if ratting on us were the intent, even thailand(phuket),malaysia(langkawi, penang, johor bahru), indonesia(sumatra) and singapore ATCs would not miss our formation going back and forth from A&N.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Khalsa » 08 Jan 2013 15:03

vivek_ahuja wrote:
Khalsa wrote:Vivek
A question for you.

How did the Sukhois and the Midas get South China Sea(SCS)/ Hainian Island.
i.e. how did they go from Bay of Bengal to SCS

did they remain over water or did they fly over any country.


Over water. Roundabout route around Singapore and then up the side of the Vietnamese coastline (with their "tacit" permission). One refueling on the way and another on the way back over the sea a hundred kilometers off the coast east of Ho Chi Minh city.

-Vivek


Thanks Vivek

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby k prasad » 08 Jan 2013 15:37

Vivek saar... Yeh dil maange more. More scenario posts please!!!! Soon soon soon please

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Chinmayanand » 08 Jan 2013 19:44

Am waiting for a rapid fire by Vivek .

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 08 Jan 2013 22:38

DAY 11

THE CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION
MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE BUILDING
BEIJING
DAY 11 + 0830 HRS


“What’s the latest from the valley?” Peng asked without ado as he entered the conference room.
He did not need to explain what he was talking about. The valley in this case meant Chumbi and the status he wanted was about the two depleted PLA Divisions now cut off from their logistics and reinforcements from the 15TH Airborne Corps heading there.
“Not good,” the PLA Chief of General Staff, General Yongju said as he and the other PLA Generals of the CMC terminated their discussions and took their seats around the table. “The Division commanders are desperate. They have been fighting for ten days now and for the most part been taking a lot of damage from the Indians. Their air-force controls the skies over the valley and their artillery supremacy is killing us. With the road north cut off by the two Indian airborne troops, their morale is sinking.”

“They will hold their positions!” Peng ordered as he pulled his chair out and sat down.
“Or die trying to,” Liu stated flatly from where he and his two subordinates from the 2ND Artillery Corps were sitting. Yongju shot Liu a sharp look, but Liu was not perturbed and leaned back in his chair with a fatalistic air about him. Peng looked back at Yongju:
“How long can they hold?”

“So long as the two Division commanders and their staffs are alive and operational,” Yongju replied, “we can hold indefinitely I think. At least until the arrival of the 15TH Airborne Corps to Gyantse; But I am not sure about the junior unit commanders. They may be more prone to surrender if their losses become unbearable.”
“Tell the political officers to maintain unit disciplines! I don’t see why we are talking about this stuff at all!” Liu shot back with a furrowed brow and leaned forward, resting his arms on the edge of the table.
“You have a different course of action, General?” Peng asked stoically.

“Yes, I do,” Liu answered confidently. “General Yongju, you and I well know the losses being borne by the convoy bound troops of the 15TH Corps. The Indians control the skies and are rampaging through their convoys as they head south. This will likely continue. We lost the Highland Division in Bhutan already along with its Division commander. The 55TH and 11TH Divisions cannot hold and the 15TH Airborne Corps is being mauled even before it reaches the battlefield!”

“You have a point?” Peng asked as he rubbed his eyes on hearing the painful news.
“Yes!” Liu said loudly. “My Corps is ready to deploy! It has the most proven weapons in our arsenals ready for action. With launch sites in northern Tibet I can order the brigade commanders to fire our medium range missiles with nuclear warheads and terminate the Indian Corps in the Chumbi valley along with all other major northern airbases and command centers!”
“Are you insane?!” Yongju shouted back, slamming his pen back on his bunch of papers. “You will destroy our two Divisions along with the Indian Corps in the valley! Those are our boys fighting out there!”
“Would you rather handle defeat instead?” Liu asked rhetorically.
“Are those our only choices?” Peng asked soberly. “Are we there now?”

“No! There is a third option!” Yongju replied, turning to face Peng, “End this war now! The Russians are awaiting a response from us on negotiations. We have been stalling them endlessly but we can initiate talks while those two Divisions are still alive and fighting. The Indians haven’t won anything as long as they keep fighting!”
Liu exhaled loudly and slumped back in his chair: “Now that is clearly insane, Yongju and you should know better! If we negotiate now we will do so from a position of weakness. The Indians know that the only reason we are at the talks is because our forces in the valley are surrounded and on the verge of defeat!”
“So?” Yongju shouted back. “It is true! And the sooner we accept it the sooner we save ourselves the even bigger embarrassment of two Divisions worth of men surrendering to the Indians! Our people will not accept any such defeat from us!”

“And which is exactly why I say we must use nuclear weapons in the valley now!” Liu said, beginning to show signs of frustration in his voice. “It is better for us to lose to Divisions in exchange for an entire Indian Army Corps than for us to lose them as prisoners of war! You want New Delhi to march them through their streets like they did the Pakistanis in 1971 or the Russians did with the Germans? Can you imagine the national shame that will bring?”

“Don’t try to confuse this with national shame!” Yongju continued. “You cannot simply extinguish the lives of my men with arguments based on empty rhetoric. Negotiations are different from surrendering. We are far from surrendering. And the Indians know it!”
“Liu,” Peng said, “our men deserve better from us than this. And Yongju is right: as long as the two Divisions hold ground, we have not really lost anything substantial.”
“Except Bhutan,” Liu said quietly, but caught Peng’s ear.

“Yes, Bhutan is lost. But we never meant to capture Bhutan in its entirety, did we? It served to bog down Indian troops in the hopes of detracting what has unfortunately still come to pass in the Chumbi valley.”
“I hope you men know that if you go ahead with this negotiated surrender,” Liu said menacingly, “our people will not forgive us in a thousand years!”
“They will learn to Liu. But only in time,” Peng said and leaned forward to press the phone intercom on the table.

“Get me the Minister Bogdanov at the Russian Foreign Ministry.”

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vila » 08 Jan 2013 23:01

But Vivek Why are the Chinese not using ballistic missiles with conventional warheads against corps HQ and air fields in large numbers? The have quite a few of them.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 08 Jan 2013 23:50

NEW DELHI
INDIA
DAY 11 + 1130 HRS


“They want to do what?” Chakri said into his phone speaker from his office.
“You heard me the first time,” Ravoof said from his office in the external affairs ministry. “I can’t believe it either. But I just got off the phone with Tiwari in Moscow. Bogdanov just called up to say that Beijing wants to initiate some lower level conversations to try and end this mess. The Russians seem to think they are sincere about it this time.”

“As they damn well should be!” Chakri noted and had a smile on his face. “We got them by the balls out there in the Chumbi valley. And they know it!”
“So how do we want to proceed on this? I am going to brief the PM in a few minutes. Thought I would give you a heads up on what it is going to be about,” Ravoof said, unable to conceal his excitement.
“Thank you,” Chakri said in appreciation. He knew he needed time to digest this before heading over to meet the NSA.
“But Ravoof,” he said after a few seconds of consideration. “Let’s keep this low for now. We don’t want the media gaining even a whiff of this until we know what we are getting into. We don’t want this leaking out to the world just yet. Beijing might be forced to backtrack into their hole if they are publicly humiliated with this news. I can only imagine what the hell is happening in Beijing right now and how delicate the deal might be from their end.”
“I agree,” Ravoof said.

“I am also putting a call through to the service chiefs to see what they have to say about this.”
What on earth would we even talk about with Beijing? Chakri thought as he put down the phone.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 08 Jan 2013 23:51

LHASA
TIBET
DAY 11 + 1330 HRS


The city was under martial law as the foggy winter sun blazed overhead. The streets were deserted and so were the bustling markets and alleys, except for the armed police patrols and the regular PLA convoys driving through. Only Chinese citizens were being allowed to go about their business and even they had to carry specially issued identification cards and insignia. The city had been shut down for two weeks now. The Chinese administration had shut it down soon before military operations had begun on the Indian border eleven days ago. But even for the past several months, the city had been tense in light of the renewed Tibetan revolts and insurrections within the city and in the mountainous countryside of the region.

The Tibetans who stayed in the city were forced to watch the progress of the war via Chinese government media and the occasional vision of the war when the airport nearby had been heavily struck by Indian missiles two times in the last eleven days. When that had happened, they could see the smoke cloud rising into the air for hundreds of meters into the blue skies through their windows. Even later, when the Indians had struck the Chinese missile units south of the city, they had heard the distant rumble rolling through the houses. They could see the mass Chinese casualties being brought in by PLA trucks to the city’s Chinese civilian and military hospitals and they heard the soldiers talking. And rumors always spread quickly under these draconian conditions…

They knew the war was not going well for the Chinese.

The question was what they could do to help. The Tibetan rebels had been making as much trouble as they could against the PLA forces in central and northern Tibet as a way to help the Indian forces. The more PLA units they bogged down here, the lesser would be available for the war front on the Himalayan borders. But for all that, it hadn’t been enough. The Chinese were firmly in command of Tibet despite their dire military situation.

But that had changed in the past few days. With Indian aerial forces raging deep inside central Tibet and attacking PLA ground convoys continuously, the Chinese presence was beginning to feel the pressure. And the Tibetans had every intention of making it worse for them. They had attacked several outlying Chinese armed police stations outside the city and had even ambushed a few of their patrols. In retaliation, the PLA units in the area had responded with convoys of wheeled armored personnel carriers on the streets and Z-9 helicopters flying overhead, their buzzing noise reverberating through the city. Even so, such military strength no longer seemed as intimidating as it once had done to the Tibetans.

They saw the camouflaged Z-9s patrolling the skies above the city with armed snipers sitting in its cabin but when they looked further up, they could also see white contrails coming in from the south and making circles against the blue sky above. They could now feel the Indian presence above their holy city…

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby asbchakri » 09 Jan 2013 05:49

vivek_ahuja wrote:NEW DELHI
INDIA
DAY 11 + 1130 HRS


“They want to do what?” Chakri 8) :D said into his phone speaker from his office.
........
.


Thank you Vivek sir :D :D

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Misraji » 09 Jan 2013 07:07

I am wondering what the importance of the Hainan attack was?

It utilized important resources.
However, it seems that that Politburo is more worried about the situation in Chumbi Valley than another front.
And its also the case that the same attack cannot be repeated multiple times.

So what did we actually gain from it?

Is it the case that enough of PLAAF 2nd Fighter Division was destroyed that we reduced their patrol area and hence IN could venture out further.
Or would it tie down the transfer of Su-27s to the battlefront?

--Ashish

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 09 Jan 2013 07:14

Divisions need logistics and that needs pol atleast petrol and diesel which must be stocked in bulk near the few roads in tibet. Open terrain.
Mrsam coverout to 25km for sure around such nodes.

This is where our mirages with popeye could play their hand.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby disha » 09 Jan 2013 11:54

Misraji wrote:I am wondering what the importance of the Hainan attack was?


Several.

On the psychological level, the attack has hit home. The war is closer than they realize (not in some place where they can forsake lives). And they have nothing to hit back other than go up the escalatory ladder. On the lower rungs, it is demoralizing - they have been attacked and they cannot do anything about it.

On the strategic level, it has opened up another front. Now they have to spend resources defending it, even if it is a one off effort. Given that an underbelly is hit, another hit and they will fold up. They know that and they know that we know that and we know that they know that we know that (you can take your time to parse that :-))

Further, they realize that inspite of all the power they have in the security council, none of the other nations bordering on the SCS are their friends., on the contrary when they try to carry out the attack, their plans will be known up front and cut off by Indian presence in A&N before it reaches any southern Indian cities.

Basically the attacks on Hainan crushed them.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Misraji » 09 Jan 2013 12:58

@Disha.

While I agree with your reasoning, nothing so far has been indicated by Ahuja Sir.
An attack is useful only if it has a discernible effect on the course of the war. It may be in the upcoming posts.

--Ashish

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Singha » 09 Jan 2013 13:48

we have to accept that not everything will work. maybe the attack was a tactical success but a strategic failure?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby nits » 09 Jan 2013 15:42

It worked; if you read Radio Broadcast post of Vivek... there is a panic in people near island after missile strike and they are now aware that not all is well in war with India...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Yagnasri » 09 Jan 2013 18:28

Shankar sir is not posting anything for a long time. I have not seen him on any other thread also. what happend?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby rsingh » 09 Jan 2013 22:00

Strange world. Here we are defeating China...............in real world reduced to laughing stock by incompetent GOI. Vivek Saar which party is ruling India in your scenario?
Last edited by rsingh on 09 Jan 2013 22:15, edited 1 time in total.

rajanb
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby rajanb » 09 Jan 2013 22:03

rsingh wrote:Strange world. Here we are defeating China...............in real world reduced to laughing stock by by incompetent GOI. Vivek Saar Which party is ruling India in your scenario?


Does that matter? All parties have let us down. Check IKG, Kandahar, Agra, Kargil, today.........

Has to be a new party. Not in existence today.

disha
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby disha » 09 Jan 2013 22:36

^^^ Kargil was a win after a surprise. Same here in Vivekji's scenario., please read it through.

No need to conflate IKG, MaMainoSingh and your dhoti shivering. There is a specific dhoti shivering thread for China and if you want to soil your dhoti against the bakis, there are other threads too.


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