Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

[Shankar]

OCEAN WATCH FLIGHT -1XTU 142- 630 KM DUE WEST OF SRI LANKAN COAST

Commander Dixit was sweating even with air conditioning turned to maximum . He has pushed the collective power lever to maximum right up to take off power limits and the groan of the four massive turbo props made everyone on board wince .He could see the engine temperature slowly going up the lubricating oil pressure falling and the engine exhaust way over normal . At this low altitude the wings were buckling uncontrollably and surely this was way out of designed operating envelope of engineers at Tupolev aeronautical design bureu.

The indicated air speed was actually 843 km per hour and he was lucky to have strong tail wind so the actual ground speed was close to 900 kmph almost the same speed as the normal cruise speed of a Su 30 mki or Mig 29 K . He did not know how long he would be able to maintain this manic suicidal dash at low altitude when the radar warning receiver bleeps once and then kept on bleeping every 5 seconds conforming he is now being painted by a hostile radar .

He nodded to his flight engineer who immediately switched on the ECM pod ,hoping against all hope the Russians have pre fed the search and track frequency of the MKK s radar in to the data base

The Kuznetsov NK-12 is a Soviet turboprop engine of the 1950s, designed by the Kuznetsov design bureau. It drives huge eight-bladed (four per propeller) contra-rotating propellers 5.6 m in diameter (6.2 m in the NK-12MA) and weighing 1,155kg (NK-12MV).
The NK 12 turboprop was originally developed after World War II by a German ex-Junkers team under Ferdinand Brandner, evolving from late war German turboprop studies . This started with the post-war development of the wartime Jumo 012 turboprop design that developed 6000 ehp in a 3000 kg engine. The effort continued with a 5000 ehp engine that weighed in at 1700 kg, completed by 1947. The evolution to the TV-12 12000 Ehp engine required extensive use of new Soviet-developed alloys and was completed in 1951.
The NK-12M developed 8,948 kW (12,000 ehp) uprated in the NK-12MV to 11,033 kW (14,795 ehp) and reaching 11,185 kW (15,000 ehp) in the NK-12MA. NK-12 is by a wide margin the most powerful turboprop engine ever built, only recently the Progress D-27 and Europrop TP400 come somewhat close. It powered the Tupolev Tu-95 / Tu-142 bomber, the Tupolev Tu-114 airliner NK-12MV (still the world's fastest propeller-driven aircraft), and the Antonov An-22 Antheus NK-12MA — the world's largest aircraft at the time. It has also been used to power several types of amphibious assault craft, such as the A-90 Orlyonok "Ekranoplan".
The contra-rotating propellers are driven by a 14-stage axial-flow compressor producing compression ratios between 9:1 to 13:1 according to altitude, controlled also by variable inlet guide vanes and blow-off valves. The combustion system used is a cannular-type: each flame tube is centrally mounted on a down-stream injector that ends in an annular secondary region. The single turbine is a five-stage axial. Mass flow is 65 kg (143 lb) /sec.

[rajeshks]

Sankarji, IAF Southern Command is in Trivandrum. So will it be a better scenario if SU 30 MKI tookoff from trivandrum rather than from chennai to intercept Chinese flankers? I think IAF had some plan to base fighter aircrafts in trivandrum. Last year there was some exercise to simulate similar situations.

[Ajit.C]

The SU30's flights are based in Chennai to protect the city and nuclear plant from any 9/11 type attacks, thats what he mentioned. Another thing that would be difficult to understand, is that a flight of Mig29's from Car Nicobar (Far East of India) are required to provide aircover for TU 142 patrolling on Far west of India between Lakhswadeep and Maldive Islands that would be around 2000 kms apart. Why no aircraft on the South or western seaboard is there for the aircover, normally there would be some of the Naval Mig29's based in Dabolim.

I guess Shankar would be wanting to demonstrate the long range air refueling capacity of the IAF and also the Air power of India to cover any part of India from fighters based in far off.

Well since this is just a scenario it would be best to digest as it comes. Carry on Shankarji.

[kit]

India is the answer to US prayer for check mating China whether India likes it or not.A democratic India will always be amenable to american interests.America can kowtow to its banker in public and at the same time build up its most potent ally in the coming times.Much more than a combined NATO or its combined asian allies at present India by far presents as the most powerful ally militarily and economically, though maybe not politically..Not for nothing, just rcheck of how many Indian soldiers fought for the allies in the World wars, you will be surprised.Indian economic resources played a major role in Britains war effort too.

[Manish_Sharma]

Shankar, as you may have seen right now there is a discussion going on "Su 30" thread about how much more manueverable a jet becomes with the lesser fuel it has. Would be great if you can incorporte these points too in the upcoming mig29k vs su30mkk scenario. Like how much fuel is needed to do 10 mins. of dogfight which allows maximum manueverability + time to air-refueling.

This info has been hardly discussed in threads so would be great for the record too.

[bodhi]

Amazing...nice build-up....quite a bit of suspense...if i were you guys...i would kidnap shankar and make him write down the full scenario one after the other and not like one piece a week

[andy B]

Shankar da A quick question:

In the scenario the Tongchi su 30 MKs are making a mad tash toward the 142 and going low level to match that of the 142. However would it not be better for it to maintain med/high level thus giving higher speed and better perfomance = lesser time to intercept. Also...I would imagine the MKK's radar would be able to make out ocean clutter to identify the 142 (I am assuming this ofcourse) and that in turn would mean they would be able to launch from a higher altitude giving better kinematic perfomance to the R77s?

[Mihir.D]

Shankar da A quick question:

In the scenario the Tongchi su 30 MKs are making a mad tash toward the 142 and going low level to match that of the 142. However would it not be better for it to maintain med/high level thus giving higher speed and better perfomance = lesser time to intercept. Also...I would imagine the MKK's radar would be able to make out ocean clutter to identify the 142 (I am assuming this ofcourse) and that in turn would mean they would be able to launch from a higher altitude giving better kinematic perfomance to the R77s?

But going at a higher altitude would also expose it to other aircraft in the area and also air defense radars and also warn the bear. With the MKK going low the bear won't be aware it there location. MKKs are not yet aware of the 29K and MKI heading there way and are just guessing the AWACS being around.

[andy B]

Shankar da A quick question:

In the scenario the Tongchi su 30 MKs are making a mad tash toward the 142 and going low level to match that of the 142. However would it not be better for it to maintain med/high level thus giving higher speed and better perfomance = lesser time to intercept. Also...I would imagine the MKK's radar would be able to make out ocean clutter to identify the 142 (I am assuming this ofcourse) and that in turn would mean they would be able to launch from a higher altitude giving better kinematic perfomance to the R77s?

But going at a higher altitude would also expose it to other aircraft in the area and also air defense radars and also warn the bear. With the MKK going low the bear won't be aware it there location. MKKs are not yet aware of the 29K and MKI heading there way and are just guessing the AWACS being around.

Errr..how would it matter with something like a phalcon around....surely the darn thing can pick up low level flying target over the sea And btw the milsat picked up the trons in the air so they could have been detected either way...and the bear would be warned of the impending danger

[Shankar]

PLAN RED DRAGON FLIGHT – 3 X SU 27MKK -427 KM SOUTH WEST OF COLOMBO

Hang Shu scanned the radar display once again. The Indian Bear was now clearly identified and tagged on the screen but the relative closing speed was slow less than 200 km/hr and the distance was about the same .At this rate he would need 30 minutes plus to get within a radar missile shot at maximum range and 15 minutes more of so if he wanted to do sure kill R-73 B shot.

He really had not many options either use up his fuel reserve by going full after burner but getting a fair chance of closing in fast and taking out the Indian Tu 142 which is even now escaping the planned kill zone by making dash towards Indian shores and its horde of shore based interceptor aircraft cover out of Thiruvantha puram and Arkonam ,or abort the mission and go back to face humiliation and possible court martial .

Hang Shu if nothing was a true blue blooded air combat pilots and took the decision expected of him by his destiny and to some extent the seasoned air battle commander on board IAF PHALCON few hundred kilometers north east .

He broke radio silence once again asking his wing man to accompany him on full afterburner and told the third team member to maintain position and with some more fuel hopefully will be able to provide some air cover on the return leg .

He leaned forward and pushed the power lever all the way forward past the notched re heat gate .The powerful AL 3I engines responded with a delay of 3.5 seconds as it processed the pilots requested ,checked the existing engine setting and exhaust temperature ,the gross load of the aircraft and indicated air speed and then the full authority digital engine control gave the command to the fuel control valve to open to 95% its maximum opening and aviation turbine fuel poured into the combustion chamber, raising the chamber pressure by almost 30% increasing the turbine rpm at chamber exhaust to maximum .The flanker responded to this new additioabl thrust as it quickly zipped up to 1400 kmph and the distance between the Indian Tu 142 and PLAN Su30 MKK started decreasing rapidly

SEA EAGLE FLIGHT – 4 XMIG 29K

Commander Chauhan scanned the weapons available display and his finger curled around the fire button –he was still not weapons free from the air battle commander but knew by his guts the moment he will have to confront the far superior bandit anytime .The data link on main central multi functional display came alive and the red data transfer light started blipping as the instruction from the Phalcon came in slowly ,got de emncrypted by mission computer and flashed on screen .

- SEA EAGLE LEAD – BLUE WATCH COMMAND – STANDBY TO TAKE DOWN FLASH PRIORITY MESSAGE - ………….- NAVY 142 HAVE JUST DECLARED MAYDAY …………..- 2 OF THE THREE SU 30 BANDITS ON MAX SPEED INTERCEPT - ESTIMATED TO BE IN MISSILE LAUNCH ZONE IN ONE FIVE MINUTES – TWO BANDITS CLOSING IN ON BEAR ……. THIRD ON PATROL – STOP THE LEAD PAIR ………. ENGGAGE ……..ENGAGE NOW …………YOU ARE WEAPONS FREE ON ALL STATIONS ………………… MSG OVER -………GOOD HUNTING ……GOOD …….LUCK

Chauhan just typed ok on the keypad and then tightned his straps as he pushed the throttle all the way past emergency rating and the fulcrum power rating went all the way to 185% maximum military power ( more 10 minutes on this power and bi bi a pair of RD 33 engines ) but chauhan did not care as he put the Mig 29k on a tight climbing intercept course and at the same time switched the Zhuk radar to full power target acquisition mode .

The large PLAN flankers came up on the screen about 110 km on a heading 15 degree well within the capability of his radar as well as heat sekeers . The engine exhaust temperature showed 687 degree Celsius And climbing-climb rate 13500 mters per minutes angle of attack 17 degree outside air temperature minus 61 degree and falling

The lead pair of PLAN flankers suddenly started turning –they must have been alerted by the radar warning receivers thought Chauhan as he intently watched the target cursor float over the fast moving flankers still out of range –the flankers turning –chauhan pushed his fulcrum into a reciprocal turn –closing in the distance and increasing the relative closing in speed –his hand inside nomex gloves was already sweating and then the wings of the lead flanker blinked once and then once more –that bugger must have shot of two R-77 without properly acquiring us thought chauhan as he flicked open the firing button plastic cover –the SHOOT prompt came on the head up display and Chauhan did not waste ecen a second as shot of all the four active radar missiles in one salvo and dived for the ocean –deploy air brakes –air speed coming down level out at 500 ft –check auto chaff dispenser shooting of bundles of chaff – check ECm pod activated –turn air search radar to stand by

In the distance he could see one bright flash and one of the flankers on his screen disappeared from the screen but the second was closing in and the radar warning receiver sharply bleeped confirming a missile have been launched – shit ansd shit Chauhan turned sharply to starboard at right angles to the incoming missiles shown as a red line on the radar display – the dispenser again punched off half a dozen chaffs into the slip stream – the missile went past exploding in the chaff cloud –reverse turn to port – distance to target 45 km – angle 56 degree of nose –chauhan moved his head trying to acquire the second flanker on his helmet mounted sight – his left hand selected R-73 and the black SHOOT prompt came on once again as he squeezed of two R-73 in 5 seconds interval the radar warning bleeped – power down to 65% - dive once again at right angles to the missile launch angle – punch out the chaffs and flares –stick fully pulled in a nose up altitude leaving behind a pool of chaff cloud interspaced with already lit flares –increase power to 100 % -one more turn to star board and he was out of kill zone and his screen was clear when the voice of air battle commander came on very happy and very excited
- good work –sea eagle lead – we copy two flanker splashed – your credit rating with navy have just gone up- our flankers are taking care of the balance –return to base asap- tanker at co ordinates ------ good hunting once again.-over

Chauhan eased back on his 36k ejection seat and smiled for the first time in last 23 minutes .

[pralay]

Bingo!!! Two Down! Just one more to see the seabed!

[Shankar]

PLAN RED DRAFLIGHT – 1 X SU 27MKK -300 KM SOUTH WEST OF COLOMBO

Ling Chan was nervous –he has seen the unbelievable performance of the single Mig 29K (the damn indies and their damn Ruski friends have come out with a winner once again).Now he was alone and boxed in by Indian Sukhois with much more capable thrust vectoring engines and with full fuel load and tanker support far closer to home base . He could make break for it or fight it out in either case he knew his chances of returning home in one piece is but non existent . So he decide to take a gamble and set a course for Male ,The capital of Maldives and hoped if he manages to land on the international airport he will be safe and his government will get him out safe and sound .

But still he had to cover nearly 1200 kms of ocean and those damn ----indians appeared to be everywhere.

Then the radio blinked –some one was trying to contact him on the reserved Guard frequency .As he clicked the response the wary voice of Indian air battle commander came on

PLAN aircraft this is blue watch flight Indian airforce –you are now under Indian air force custody –your flight have initiated hostile action against our navy aircraft and two of your flight mates had to be shot down in self defense – advise you to surrender and head for nearest Indian base –confirm your acknowledgement –over

- Blue watch – red dragon 3 – I am international airspace – you have no jurisdiction on my flight path –over
Ling Chan leaned back on his seat and at the same time his radar warning receiver started bleeping like mad being locked on by multiple aircraft .The calm voice of Indian air battle commander came on again

-red dragon 3 –this is your last warning – turn to heading 107 –reduce speed to 800km- make your altitude 6000 mters –now

Ling chan was brave but not stupid, you don’t get to fly a flanker in PLAN by being stupid, he knew his options are quite limited –out of fuel and out gunned by much superior aircraft he decided to comply the Indian air battle commanders order and knew he will never see his own land ever again

- blue watch – red dragon –powering down radar – reducing speed to 800 k –altitude to 6000 meters turning to heading 107 –over

The two iaf Su-30 mki formed up over him about 20 km behind and would stay like that for the rest of the 2 hour flight to Thiruvanthapuram .

[Romeo]

OMG !! The Legend is back...this is the classic Shankar i know...taking a PLAN Flanker as war prize at the start of conflict is just like a Boost early morning...Secret of OUR Energy

[Bala Vignesh]

Wow.. Now this is a seriously awesome twist.. really unexpected... way to go sir...

[Sudhanshu]

Totally unexpected.
Frankly, I had thought, some blah blah conversation will go between IAF Su and they will fire their missiles and this PLAN Su will go down as others- very much predicted.

But, this is totally awesome, never expected this to happen.

I am sure China won't take loss of their two of their pilots very lightly.

BTW, we lost track of PN, they might have slipped into Maldives water by now. Abdul must be happy


Thanks a ton for scenario writing.

[Shankar]

PLAN HEADQUARTERS –BEIJING –PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA -1600 HRS

Admiral Li shao Chi looked at the flash message on his desk and looked skyward. He knew the captured PLAN pilot will be giving interview all over the worlds television in matter of hours . And his country will loose face –the world will laugh at the spectacle of his most advanced air dominance aircraft being paraded like a lone sheep for the worlds military particularly US to gloat and the illusion of power created with so much money and time propaganda about the invincibility of PLAN lay to waste.

Some thing had to be done –some thing drastic and in a big scale even before the news reaches the big bad world and more importantly the old men in Politburo. He knew his his time was fast running out unless some significant victory can be snatched from the mouth of spectacular defeat.

He picked up the Red phone which allowed him to contact direct to the base commander Mischief reef and number of plan bases in the south .He talked quietly and talked for long .As he put the phone down –his face was ghostly pale .The order he has just given was without the authority of countries political leadership and the price for such an act is usually death by firing squad –unless the outcome of such an action clearly justified the risk

Admiral Li Shao chi sincerely hoped that will be the case

PLAN BASE –MISCHIEF REEF-1615 HRS

The priority call from the Admiral galvanized the base into frantic activity. The news of two of their members being shot down has trickled down quickly amongst the tight circle of Chinese naval aviators and they were baying for revenge. The clearance to strike was greeted with a wild cheer and then everyone got down to mission planning as the army of weapon loaders and ground crew got down to the serious business of making three squadrons of Su-30 mkk ready for combat mission

The plan was simple and bold. It will a be a dusk strike on the Port Blair international air port and Car Nicobar . The island air defense will simply be overwhelmed by one squadrons of Su30 mkk on air dominance role while the second and third third squadron will be carrying air to ground ordnance only all of 200 tons enough to lay to dust both the bases and if possible put the port blair out of action .

For such a strike formation complete radio silence will be risky so only flight leads will be in communication to command and each other during the actual strike phase of the mission .Tanker support will be available on the way out . The tankers will launch immediately after the strike aircraft and will be positioned as close to the island territory as considered safe

A PLAAF A-50 MAINSTAY was requisitioned will be available for the later part of the mission and will stay out of immediate conflict zone with its own escorts to direct the air intercept control as well as co ordinate the critical ground strike missions .

[Shankar]

Mischief Reef

The third part of General Zhang’s agenda, an aggressive construction program in the Spratly Island chain, which does not yet appear to be underway. China has instead undertaken a gradual buildup of its facilities in this central-to-southern region of the South China Sea. After invading the Paracel Islands and taking them over from the former government of South Vietnam in 1974, Beijing waited until 1988 to undertake its next military move of capturing six islets and reefs in the Spratly Group, to include attacking some islets occupied by Vietnamese forces. Then in late 1994 and early 1995 Beijing stealthily occupied Mischief Reef. In all three instances China chose a period of pre-occupation or diversion by Washington or Moscow to move in the South China Sea.

In 1995 China only built stilt-mounted metal and wood platforms on Mischief Reef, but by 1998 these were replaced by a new concrete structure at the north end of the reef. However, by the 2004 to 2007 period it appears that the PLA engaged in some modest expansion of its facilities in the Spratlys. By 2006 one unidentified islet had been expanded to include a new tower with a covered dome, characteristic of a radar facility. Then in November 2007 satellite imagery obtained by the Jane’s Information Group showed that the Mischief Reef facilities had been expanded to include a new larger concrete building at the south end of the reef. This imagery also showed some activity to include a survey ship and other ships that may have been supporting construction activity.[16]

In order to build an airstrip and port facilities as called for by General Zhang, the PLA would have to mount a far greater effort in Mischief reef. This effort will require a massive movement of rocks and concrete to create the necessary foundations for an airstrip, hangers, docks, plus storage and personnel buildings. The configuration of a final enlarged Mischief Reef base is not known, but that has not stopped imaginative Chinese from offering suggestions, as seen below.

Should China build a major base on Mischief Reef, which as General Zhang suggests, should be able to handle PLA Chengdu J-10 and Shenyang J-11 multirole fighters, it would require an airstrip of about 1,000 meters.[17] A J-10 equipped with a thrust-vectored engine would be capable of shorter take-offs and landings, and an eventual PLA development of short take-off and vertical landing (STOVL) fighters[18] would significantly reduce airstrip requirements. With a 2,000m airstrip Mischief Reef could medium size transport aircraft or larger maritime patrol aircraft. This reef appears to be deep enough to accept small PLA Navy combatants up to corvette and minesweeper size, but may require significant dredging in order to build a pier that could accommodate larger warships. New construction to the extent of building a pier or airstrip would also enable the placement of a range of missiles, modern surface-to-air, cruise missiles or new long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles. In addition, if the reef could be dredged so that it could accommodate current or future PLA Navy air defense destroyers, these could provide long-range anti-aircraft and anti-ship cruise missiles.

While it can be reasonably concluded that China is actually on a trajectory that would eventually follow General Zhang’s prescription of sharply militarizing China’s effort to control the South China Sea, it is not there yet. However, it is also reasonable to consider how a much larger base in Mischief Reef would aid the PLA. For one, in conjunction with the airbase that has existed on Woody Island in the northern Paracel Islands, a base on Mischief Reef would give the PLA military staging points at both ends of its South China Sea territorial claim area. They could serve as additional points for placing radar or managing undersea sensors that could vector PLA combat forces toward unwanted U.S. military or other Asian military forces. A larger base at Mischief Reef could also serve to assist naval and air surveillance of sea lanes down to and beyond the Malacca Strait. It would also be far easier for the PLA to mount rapid strikes against possible U.S. forces that would assist the Philippines, or to more easily close commercial sea lanes astride the Philippines with smaller minelayers and fast attack craft.

[Bala Vignesh]

Looks like something spicy coming up... One request sir, give it to us in one installment...

[Shyam_K]

PLAN BASE –MISCHIEF REEF-1615 HRS

The priority call from the Admiral galvanized the base into frantic activity. The news of two of their members being shot down has trickled down quickly amongst the tight circle of Chinese naval aviators and they were baying for revenge. The clearance to strike was greeted with a wild cheer and then everyone got down to mission planning as the army of weapon loaders and ground crew got down to the serious business of making three squadrons of Su-30 mkk ready for combat mission

Mischief reef base does not have a runway. It is basically just a few rocks that are above water during low tide. The PLAN base is just few buildings and a lagoon.

[Shankar]

hina has neither declared officially its strategic nuclear plans for this region, nor has it offered to engage in any consultations about the reasons for its buildup in the South China Sea, which might lead to greater transparency and mechanisms that could be used to reduce tensions. Beijing and Washington are due to discuss "incidents at sea" in July 2009 but China has previously refused signing onto a formal "incidents at sea" agreement as did the U.S. and former Soviet Union. Instead, China appears intent on building up its military strength as internal pressure mounts for bolder action. On June 18 and 19 Chinese media outlets reported on what may become a significant Chinese escalation: a recently retired People�s Liberation Army (PLA) Deputy Chief of the General Staff Department called for the construction of a formal air and naval base in the contested Mischief Reef. Roughly 150 miles west of the Philippine island of Palawan and 800 miles south of the Chinese mainland, Mischief Reef was occupied by Chinese forces in 1995. So far China has built two small buildings on the reef. A much larger base could allow the PLA to place naval, air and missile forces astride the Palawan Strait, one of the most important sea lanes in Asia. This would not just pose a new military threat to the Philippines, but it would increase China�s ability to constrict maritime commerce critical to the survival of U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea.

Call for New Construction on Mischief Reef

In its June 19, 2009 issue the Hong Kong Newspaper Ta Kung Pao reported on a speech given by the recently retired Deputy Chief of Staff of the General Staff Department of the Central Military Commission of the People�s Liberation Army, General Zhang Li, who called for the construction of naval and air facilities in the disputed territory known as Mischief Reef, in the South China Sea.[3] Zhang made his remarks in his capacity as a Member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People�s Political Consultative Committee (CPPCC). General Zhang recommended that China respond strongly to a "very serious situation" in the South China Sea. He noted that of the 500 islets in the Nansha, or Spratly Island group, China only controlled four (reality is closer to nine), while Vietnam controlled 29, and the Philippines and Malaysia, four or more. Zhang also noted that China had no oil exploration platforms in the Nanshas, while other countries explore extensively.

http://www.strategycenter.net/research/ ... detail.asp

[Roshan]

Shankar ji,

He picked up the Red phone which allowed him to contact direct to the base commander Mischief reef and number of plan bases in the south .He talked quietly and talked for long .As he put the phone down –his face was ghostly pale .The order he has just given was without the authority of countries political leadership and the price for such an act is usually death by firing squad –unless the outcome of such an action clearly justified the risk

Dream until our dreams come true..... Your hi speed content one day turn will out to be reality, if we have faith in us and determined to fight against aggression and corruption.

Roshan

[Shankar]

INS ARIHANT - OFF THE COAST OF SANYA NAVAL BASE

Captain Prakash Rao -missed his hot freshly made sambhar and coconut chutney as he polished of the last of the MDR pack carefully reheated on microwave and served by the on board chef cum gunnery officer .

His mission to keep watch on the PLAN nuclear submarine cum air base and take them out when ever the encrypted command comes via high speed sat link .Till such an order comes he was supposed to stay invincible in a matter of way .

The 180 MW russian designed reactor hummed quitely in the background at barely 15 % of its max rate power .First officer comander Bhosle was at the con as his ship quietly patrolled the ocean covering the exit and approaches to PALN s largest strategic naval air base .So far they never had any idea about his presence and Captain Rao intended to keep it that way . He still was not aware of the conflict of the coast of Sri lanka and will not know for another 12 hours when he will push out the electronic trailing wire antena to surface for a quick information snatch from dedicated naval communication satellite on low earth orbit passing overhead at that precise instant .

He carried the awe some responsibility of nations ultimate deterance in form of 6 Agni 3 SLBM each mated with 3 independently tar gettable re entry vehicle and at the moment programmed to his Beijing Shanghai sanya .Hong kong Nanjing ....... .All were supposed to be launched at the same instant and will be the final answer if any nculear strike ever happens on Indian soil -otherwise Arihant did not even exist as an weapon system option to the military planners at north block

From the telegraph.co.uk article:
China has secretly built a major underground nuclear submarine base that could threaten Asian countries and challenge American power in the region, it can be disclosed.

Satellite imagery, passed to The Daily Telegraph, shows that a substantial harbour has been built which could house a score of nuclear ballistic missile submarines and a host of aircraft carriers.

In what will be a significant challenge to US Navy dominance and to countries ringing the South China Sea, one photograph shows China’s latest 094 nuclear submarine at the base just a few hundred miles from its neighbours.

Other images show numerous warships moored to long jettys and a network of underground tunnels at the Sanya base on the southern tip of Hainan island.

Of even greater concern to the Pentagon are massive tunnel entrances, estimated to be 60ft high, built into hillsides around the base. Sources fear they could lead to caverns capable of hiding up to 20 nuclear submarines from spy satellites.

The US Department of Defence has estimated that China will have five 094 nuclear submarines operational by 2010 with each capable of carrying 12 JL-2 nuclear missiles.

The images were obtained by Janes Intelligence Review after the periodical was given access to imagery from the commercial satellite company DigitalGlobe.

Analysts for the respected military magazine suggest that the base could be used for “expeditionary as well as defensive operations” and would allow the submarines to “break out to launch locations closer to the US”.

[Sudhanshu]

OMG
It will be a total catastrophe for Indian war machine if Chinese manage to destroy or capture Andaman Nicobar. Then they could easily use it as staging ground to attack South Eastern part of India, where I assume would be almost non-existing fixed/mobile defenses (relative to Wester or Northern part, where India has it's traditional enemies.) In some sense Chinese general didn't take a reckless gamble, neither he is totally stupid in taking such bold decision. In history, big war won by taking bold or out of box decisions only, very rarely by traditional thinking or strategy.

This brings back thought, how important is Navy for a country which is surrounded by water by three sides. If I am not wrong, our Navy budget is lowest of all three services (last time I checked 2 yrs back)

May be our defense planner reading these.

On lighter note:
Looks like only INS Arihant can save Andman's people from starting to speak Chinese

[pralay]

He still was not aware of the conflict of the coast of Sri lanka and will not know for another 12 hours

The First Line Deterrence Subs will never have that much communication lag. Anyway the scenario is getting interesting. Good work Shankar saar!

[a_kumar]

He still was not aware of the conflict of the coast of Sri lanka and will not know for another 12 hours when he will push out the electronic trailing wire antena to surface for a quick information snatch from dedicated naval communication satellite on low earth orbit passing overhead at that precise instant

How different is this supposed to be from what the Agosta was doing ? Is this receive-only?
PNS Saad

- Sir looks like we have surface to sat communication in burst mode from some where in north Arabian sea grid sector bravo delta

[rajeshks]

Some thing had to be done –some thing drastic and in a big scale even before the news reaches the big bad world and more importantly the old men in Politburo. He knew his his time was fast running out unless some significant victory can be snatched from the mouth of spectacular defeat.

He picked up the Red phone which allowed him to contact direct to the base commander Mischief reef and number of plan bases in the south .He talked quietly and talked for long .As he put the phone down –his face was ghostly pale .The order he has just given was without the authority of countries political leadership and the price for such an act is usually death by firing squad –unless the outcome of such an action clearly justified the risk

Shankarji, I have two doubts.
1. Will his subordinates simply follow such an order without informing his superiors? Its too dangerous order and equivalent of declaring war on India.

2. Wont the internal intelligence/counter intelligence guys pick that up and report to the politburo?
A totalitarian goverment like chinese can't continue in power without effective mechanisms to control the army. what i mean is an iron hand and very effective counter intelligence guys at all levels who are loyal to communist party. I am sure it will be there and they will be there to proactively defeat any actions like this. afterall if a chinese general can launch and attack on neighbouring country without his political boss knowing then he launch that against his boss also.

[aditp]

There are political officers at every level in communist armys that act as the eyes and ears of the political leadership. It would be virtually impossible for anyone to launch a massive military strike without information to the politbureau.

[shobhit.raj]

Gentlemen,

As Rahul said, I have been having one heck of a time with work off late, but that's behind me now. At the moment I am setting up my scenario to recap the various sector battles that had been going on before I kick the tires and light the fires.

Give me a few hours and I should be able to restart.

-Vivek

Hi Vivek_ahuja

I've been reading your scenarios for past 2 days and I was so hooked to it that within these two days, I read from page 1 till this last post and couldn't find any further updates. Even on your other blog, mach-five I couldn't see any further updates. Please let me know when I can see more on the Indo-China scenario as I'm eagerly waiting for it.

Also, please let me know if you have any of your books published on any millitary scenario? If yes, please let me know the name and the publisher of the book?

regards

[Sudhanshu]

Vivek all words no work.

[Shankar]

RISAT 1 – PASING OVER MISCHIEF REEF NAVAL AIR BASE –CHINA

600 km up in the sky far beyond the range of all surface to air missiles and with built in automated defense mechanisms against all known anti satellite weapons she flew on un hindered . As she approached the newly constructed base, the synthetic aperture radar switched on receiving command from on board computer and on a spot light mode .The powerful radar bore through the thin cloud cover and the poor light conditions on the runway and clicked just over 100 snaps of the tarmac filled with aircraft getting readied for launch. Few seconds after that the data was encrypted and uplinked to another military recon satellite on geo synchronous satellite some where over Indian ocean and down linked to National remote sensing agencies master antenna .The duty officer checked the contents and up linked again to air headquarters and ministry of Defense with warning tag .

All of it took 15 minutes. And then al hell broke loose

RISAT-1 is one of a series of Indian remote sensing satellites developed by ISRO, that use a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for all weather observation. The 1780 kg RISAT-1 was the first satellite of the RISAT series to be built, but second to be launched.
RISAT-1 is in queue for launch by the PSLV. Previous Indian remote sensing satellites relied mainly on optical and infrared sensors. RISAT-1 uses an indigenously developed C-band SAR, operating in multi polarisation, multi-resolution modes.
The launch of RISAT-1 was postponed to the next flight of the PSLV, in order to prioritize the launch of RISAT-2 in the aftermath of the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
The functions in RISAT include:
• 160 x 4 Mbit/s data handling system
• 50 Newton-meter-second reaction wheels
• SAR antenna deployment mechanism
• Phased array antenna with dual polarisation
During the year, the preliminary design review for electrical subsystems and Attitude and Orbit Control System elements was completed. Installation of 3D measuring instrument for integration and alignment of SAR antenna has been completed shortly before launch.

[Shankar]

INDIAN AIR FORCE HEADQUARTERS –DELHI

The chief of air staff was on his way to the situations room deep in the bowels of the building. He was expecting a strong reaction to the force landing of the PALN aircraft and the shooting down of the two other by some outstanding flying from the navy fulcrum pilot .
As the young officer rushed in with the FLASH TRAFIC and some of the raw satellite photos, the chief knew the situation is indeed serious.

He broke into a run towards the high speed elevator which was already waiting for him door open. 5 level below the situation room was already getting filed up and the navy chief was also expected anytime. But his first priority was to stop the incoming raid if not then save the flying assets in the strike path of PLAN fighters.

An experienced Mirage 2000 pilot, unfortunately he never could qualify on the Su-30 MKI before being kicked upstairs into air headquarters .So he decided to call up the vice chief also to help him with the detailed technicalities as will be required during the battle planning .

The air force guard on duty saluted smartly as he entered the air conditioned and sound proofed situation room almost 60 ft below ground and protected by more than 50 cm of ultra strong steel doors.

The chief of air staff took the chair and rushed headlong into the briefing .

- Guys we have a serious situation .The latest sat picture shows a very large PLAN strike force is forming up at Mischief reef base and that means they are out to strike as either port blair or car nicobar or Chennai and maybe Vizag They must be stopped before they reach the main land .Assuming they launch in 30 minutes–they should be entering out air defense identification zone in approximately 210 minutes plus minus 10 minutes .Can some one quickly brief me on the availability of our assets in the region .
The navy chief walked in right at the moment –sweating a bit –an ex naval aviator who commanded Virat –was visibly proud of the mornings engagement but now found him self at the centre of scrutiny by some what hostile air force guys who thought the situation have been triggered by the maverick navy pilot .Though heart in heart every single pilot in the room wanted to be in his shoes.

[Shankar]

PLAN BASE –DRAGON FIRE FLIGHT -20XSU-30 MKK-MISCHIEF REEF-1715 HRS

Patrick Chan tightened his straps and looked back with immense pride at the long line of Su 30 MKK forming up on the parking ramp –fully loaded with air to ground ordnance and drop tanks he will be leading flight of 20 flankers to the Port Blair on a high low high flight path –ETA Port Blair 1945 . Top cover will be provided by two full squadron of PLAAF/PLAN flankers so at the moment he was not worrying about enemy interceptors.

He knew such a large strike formation will not go unnoticed by Indians ,with their host of spy satellites supposed to be the best in the world –he knew success of this mission will be written with much blood but then it was not for him to question the decision .The radio crackled to life

- dragon fire lead – start motor – cleared to taxi on runway bravo zulu delta sierra –runway 27 not yet clear for take off – contact tower once full flight in position for take off –over
- tower –dragon fire – starting engine – copy cleared for atxi to runway 27 –shall contact once in hammer head –over .

He leaned forward and closed the circuit breaker ,initiating ignition and one by one the mighty AL 31s started up belching dark black smoke but after the un burnt fuel cleared up from the exhaust manifold the smoke turned dark brown indicating good combustion .Patrick went through the pre take off checklist quickly on the prompt from central MFD and then gently eased off the parking brake and then toed off the main wheels brakes as he inched forward the throttle .the flanker responded eagerly whinning up a little then moving forward with a slight jolt ,nose down and the up as it picked up regualation taxi speed of 35 kmph.

[Shankar]

Japanese media are usually reluctant to recognize Chinese military preparations and the growing PLA threat. It was supposed in Japan, until recently, that Taiwan is capable of balancing PLA's elite troops, especially if some U.S. forces are 'in the picture.' Now Japan is beginning to understand that the military situation in East Asia has dramatically changed and the consequences could be tragic for this country:

* The military balance in the Taiwan Strait is irreversibly broken.

* Most of the U.S. forces are tied up in the Middle East and their ability to intervene in the Far East is limited.

However, even now the Japanese underestimate the scale of the threat.

On Aug. 27, the leading Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun reported:

By 2004, when China receives from Russia 38 SU-30 MK fighters, ordered for PLAN several days ago and capable of carrying the most advanced 200-km-range Russian missiles, PLA will have 200 units or more of Russian-made SU-27 and SU-30 fighters. This doesn't include the J-11/SU-27 SK under assembly at Shenyang Aircraft Plant, at the rate of 20 fighters a year.

In addition, by 2004, PLAAF will get the recently ordered 28 SU-30 MKK fighters, capable of carrying advanced Russian air-to-ground missiles. Ten fighters from this order arrived in China in mid-August. Both contracts were made after the visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov to China in the beginning of June 2002. The supply of 38 SU-30 MK and 28 SU-30 MKK fighters will increase the number of Russian-made SU-27 and SU-30 fighters in the PLA inventory to 192. (end of report)

Remarkably, the list of weapons purchases in Nihon Keizai, the Japanese paper cited at the beginning of this article, doesn't include the 28 SU-30 MKK fighters for the PLAAF, which will cost China about $1 billion. Including this sale, the major Chinese weapons purchases in January-August 2002 increases to $5.7 billion.

Even more importantly, the total number of SU-series fighters given in the Japanese papers doesn't correspond to reality.

Up to July 2000, China received, in five parts, approximately 120 SU-27 fighters, including older-model SU-27s, advanced SU-27 SKs and SU-27 UBK trainers. At least 55 of them went to PLAN aviation. The author is responsible for this information, obtained mostly from Taibei's Zhonggong Yanjiu (China Communism Research) journal and based on data from Taiwanese intelligence.

In addition, in August 2000-June 2002, China received:

* about 45 SU-30 fighters – about 40 advanced SU-30 MKK and several units of an older model – in accordance with an agreement signed in Beijing in December 1999;

* 28 SU-27 UBK trainers.

When the 66 newly ordered SU-30 MK and SU-30 MKK fighters are added, the total will be more than 255 Russian-made SU-series fighters – NOT 192 or 200, as stated in the above reports from Yomiuri Shimbun and Nihon Keizai.

Even if we subtract about 10 SU-series fighters "consumed" in the training process, the resulting number of Russian-made SU-series fighters in the PLA inventory, by 2004, still exceeds 240.

Finally, How Many of Them?

According to the messages in the Hong Kong and Moscow media on July 30-31, Moscow and Beijing were going to sign – or had signed already – two contracts for:

* 40 SU-30 MK advanced fighters to China; these fighters are designated for PLAN aviation;

* 28 SU-30 MKK fighters for the PLAAF.

In total, China will receive 68 two-seat SU-30 fighters of two different varieties, with a combat radius of 1,900 miles and capable of carrying the most advanced air-to-air, anti-ship, anti-radar and general air-to-ground missiles. Delivery should be completed mostly by 2005.

Each fighter will cost China approximately $35 million. China is ready to pay this money because PLA intends, in the case of conflict around Taiwan, to

* provide an effective blockade of Taiwan (establish domination in air space);

* challenge the U.S. Navy (and U.S. Air Force) if they come close to Taiwan.

The conclusion of these contracts became possible as a result of successfully accomplishing the previous contract for SU-30 MKK delivery, concluded at the end of 1999 and accomplished by the end of 2001. They were produced by the Komsomolsk-na-Amure (Khabarovsk region) Aircraft Plant. The new SU-30 MKKs will be produced at the same plant. (end of messages)

According to one more series of messages published on Aug. 19 by Hong Kong and U.S. Chinese-language papers, "in December 1999, China ordered from Russia the first group of SU-30 MKK fighters and received them already (by the end of 2001). The second group of 38 SU-30MKK fighters was ordered during the Jiang Zemin-Putin summit in Moscow in July 2001; PLA will start getting them in the second half 2002. The third group of at least 38 SU-30 MKK fighters, for $1.6 billion, to be delivered by 2004, was ordered just recently (in July-August 2004)."

So, how many SU-30 MKK and SU-30 MK fighters are ordered at this moment by the PLA from Russia? The author lost count.

In addition, the Shenyang Aircraft Plant produced, by mid-2002, about 60 J-11/SU-27 SK fighters; about 140 are still to be assembled with Russian assistance. By estimation, the rate of production approached 30 units annually while the share of Chinese components surpassed 60 percent, thus making J-11 comparatively inexpensive.

How many hundreds of SU-series fighters, both Chinese- and Russian-made, will the PLA have by 2005?

[Shankar]

INDIAN AIR FORCE HEADQUARTERS –DELHI

The chief of air staff finished his steaming cup of coffee as the discussion went on and on about asset availability and likely threat axis and what not .He knew it was time to exercise his power to command the fourth largest air force in the world and his decision will decide the fate of Indian forces in the south eastern borders .It was time to cut the crap and act –the managerial jargons and presentations be damned .

He was a person used to split second decisions in the heat of battle when flying at supersonic speed while shoulder launched missiles were being fired at him like no ones business . He decided to use his supreme tactical authority to get things to move .

The room went quite as he stood up and started issuing orders – no polite please and may I from this veteran warrior .

- what we have in Car Nic
- sir we have one squadron each of flanker and jaguar
- jaguars are no use they will be shot out of sky like spaghetti –move them back to Vizag –now
- load up the flankers at Car Nic with full air to air load maximum R-77/27 they will form the first skirmish line but will not engage repeat not engage in dog fights make that clear to the pilots right now .
- what we have at Lohegaon
- -sir we have 3 full squadrons 56 operational aircraft -12 on training rest for operational sorties
- Launch all operational aircraft they should make direct to car nic and port blair –loaded with only air to air – no drop tanks –internal fuel only –will make the second interception wave at the outskirts of Andaman air defense zone –launch them now as and when them become ready –don’t wait for the whole squadron to form up
- Ground all training flights –right now – fuel them up and send them to car nic they will provide air defense over port blair and car nic armed only with R-73/Astra more of R-73 –this will give the instructor student team some real combat experience – do it right now
- I want 4 tankers off Agra within 30 minutes –let them go straight to port blair at at amx speed –get some Mirage 2000 from Gwalior to act as shot gun all the way through and also during combat refueling .
- What kind of awac supprt we have in the region
- Sir we have 2 phalcon one each at Chennai and Port blair
- Not enough –send two more from agra along with tankers –they can base at vizag and act as replacement if one the phalcons have to divert or gets shot down.We need phalcons full time in this battle

The air chief stopped for a minute as the air officer commanding western air command consulted his notes and strted issuing orders to all the concerned air bases .That done the air chief started once again

- admiral where exactly is the flat top of your s with 28 off fulcrums I believe
- chief it is in the region –navy never divulges the position of a carrier not even to an air chief

- please get it off the projected flight path of the PLAN strike flight –now – you have about 2.5 hours after that keep maximum CAP –it is possible some of the strike flight detect you and use it as target of opportunity and you know the capability of flankers only too well –they have a score to settle with you

we shall use the Mig 29k S when the strike is on way back –low on fuel and low on ordnance – that is time you can use your migs to take down every last one of them – I don’t intend a single PLAN fighter that enters our air defense zone to go back alive

The IAF came alive like a sleeping cobra being stepped on - a few moments to recognize the threat and then palnning a deadly counter strike that should break the back of a powerful enemy

[Shankar]

please some one post a map of the region with port blair at the centre -indian east coast to 200 odd km west of carnic

[Shankar]

IAF STATION LOHEGAON-RHINO FLIGHT -18XSU-30MKI

The base has prepared for such an emergency for long and now was the time to put the training into actual combat operation. As the armorers finished uploading the standard full air combat load 14 missiles per aircraft with 6 R-2 7 AND 8 R-73 each the pilots were already running towards the aircraft over the rain sleeked tarmac .Each aircraft had its individual starting carts plugged in and the fuel bowers were pumping in fuel at more than 500 kg/min into the massive complex of internal fuel tanks which filled every known and unknown cavities of the war bird .As the pilots started closing the canopies one by one the bowsers started detaching and rushed towards the nearby tank firm for a re fill .And the ground crew cleared The fully armed fighters one by one into the taxi way in a single line .One by one they turned left and reached the hammer head and waited for their take off clearance

Not very far from this point the civilian air terminal was a total mess .All incoming flights were diverted to Mumbai and Aurangabad abd all outgoing flights delayed indefinitely with no explanation except “technical reasons” The Corporate Indian representatives watched the long line of fighters taxing out in the distance but even that pleasure was cut of as air force police personnel came in full battle dress and closed up the viewing gallery.

Group captain Ragav will lead the rhinos into battle today .With more than 4000 hrs on both su-30k and mki version he was arguably the best flanker pilot in the world with the exception of legendary Russian test pilots but even then his experience in MKI version was maximum and his main role in Lohegaon was train young pilots the art of using thrust vectoring and awesome capability of MKI in real combat .Today he intended to lead them into real combat with an equally well equipped adversary and for that he considered to be privileged

-Rhino lead tower –stand by for take off clearance
- tower rhino lead –flight ready for immediate take off –awaiting clearance –over
- 2 minutes rhino lead –we have a jet airways incoming from Chennai reporting fuel emergency –requesting priority landing
-9w 345 –are u confirming a fuel emergency
-pune we have a fuel pump problem –low fuel pressure on starboard engine intake –request emergency landing
- 9w345 –cleared for immediate landing –runway 09 – over
- cleared for landing -9w 345 copies –over

-9w 345 – clear runway when able –you are holding up priority flights –over
-tower –off runwau 09 –contacting ground on frequency …

-rhino lead –sorry about the delay –cleared for immediate take off –runway 09-fly rnway heading – switch to on board navigation at 2000 meters –stay clear of pune bagaluru high altitude air ways –too much traffic –weather clear – good hunting
-cleared for take off-rhino flight rolling now
The roar of the twin AL31 engines shook the civilian air terminal and could be heard as far as Mula Mutha river bridge as one by one the 18 Su-30 fully loaded flankers took to skies and turned south east over the city on full afterburner in a matter of minutes . At close to 1000 km per hour crcuise speed it will take them about 3 hours to reach the Andaman air defense identification zone .Refuelling was svheduled over khamam just outside Indian air space so they can join the battle over car nic without wasting time

[asbchakri]

Brilliant !!! first ever live air to air combat of a Flanker Vs Flanker. Cant wait for the outcome. Shankarda dont stop, continue posting on full after burners

[Bala Vignesh]

Dada hope this helps...
In case the image is not loading...

[Sudhanshu]

–it is possible some of the strike flight detect you and use it as target of opportunity and you know the capability of flankers only too well –they have a score to settle with you

haha... really funny.

[Shankar]

INS VIKRAMADITYA –130 KM EAST OF SRILANKAN COAST –INDIAN OCEAN

Rear Admiral Rao at the FLASH signal. His expression did not change ,only a twitch of his eye lids indicated some thing just may not be right . He was right next to the incoming flight path of the PLAN strike fleet and he get off their way fast very fast .At the same time he should in a position to catch them on their way out of car nic/port blair .
It was time to take command from his XO

-engine room-bridge –give me max rev –now
- helmsman set course 185 –keep changing every 10 minutes in standard zig zag mode .
-xo what is fuel status of CAP
- sir we have 2 fulcrums with 30 min fuel left
-get two more up pronto –arm them with heat seeker R-77 variant only

The first officer was a middle aged captain ex INS Mumbai .He was not very comfortable with the idea of arming the new CAP with the new yet to be combat tested variant of R-77 but in navy one thing you don’t do is argue with an admiral during combat .So he issued the orders

The change in note of the four steam turbines indicated they are accelerating and accelerating fast .The digital speed indicator over head flashed 32 knots and going still up approaching the max rated speed of 37 knots and turbine pressure was already at maximum of 63 bar .The four turbines together delivered close to 160000 horse power ,pushing the reasonably large carrier in speed in excess of 37 knots even in moderately heavy sea and today fortunately sea was calm .

Up on the island structure the air boss was already positioning the two spanking new Mig 29K to replace the two that will be coming down in less than 30 minutes .Two additional Mig 29k armed with latest and not much known variant of R-77 with infra red seeker head and cryogenically cooled to enhance tracking range was uploaded on the two inner wing pylons. The arming crew delicately positioned the round nosed missile carefully under the pylon and used the hydraulic lifter to gently ease it into the holding slot before locking it in the electromagnetic launching rails and connecting up the firing and data transfer cables.