Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 01 Oct 2010 09:30



This report lays out the circumstances around the initiation, conduct, and conclusion of the conflict in the Indian sub-continent, involving the nations of Pakistan, India, China, and the United States.

Note: The report analyzes the conflict with the benefit of hindsight, and has been written a decade after the conflict took place.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 01 Oct 2010 09:33



Background, Government, and Economy

The nation of Pakistan, formed in 1947 with the partition of India, was a nation formed as an ideal Islamic state based on the premise that Muslims could not live and prosper in a nation where they were a minority, particularly in India which had a Hindu majority.

In 2011, Pakistan was on the brink of failure as a nation. This condition was not new, and the nation had been in dire straits for several years prior to this. Pakistan was plagued with a shaky economy, a very poor law and order situation, separatist movements in Baluchistan, an extremely low tax base, rampant corruption, and increasingly powerful militant Islamic groups. The 2010 floods which devastated a quarter of the country had made the situation worse.

The country had multiple centres of power: the first was the elected government, however this had limited powers particularly when compared to the second centre of power, viz. Pakistan’s powerful military establishment, which had a history of assuming power and interfering in government affairs. A third centre of power was the shadowy ISI, which operated outside all rules and was involved in a wide range of activities ranging from subversion in India to maintaining links with Islamic terrorist groups and nuclear and missile proliferation.

The fourth centre of power was the landed Punjabi gentry, a miniscule percentage of the population who nevertheless controlled the economy and were in senior positions everywhere. A fifth, and increasingly powerful, segment was Islamic militant/terror groups including the Pakistani Taliban, who were supported by elements of the Pakistani army and ISI.

The country had been dependent on US aid for several years and had benefited to the tune of $20bn. under various guises, including the Afghanistan war in which it played both sides to its monetary benefit.

In early 2011, Pakistan’s elected (though largely powerless) government faced multiple challenges to its survival. Due to a poor economy, it was on the brink of defaulting on wage payments to government employees. The military establishment was unhappy and on the verge of assuming power. Further, Islamic militant/terrorist groups were an increasing presence and the state was both unable and unwilling to act against them.

Beginning mid-2010, the Pakistani government steeply escalated a cold conflict with India over the issue of Kashmir, and covertly increased its support to militant/terrorist groups in the state. It also began to mobilize its population to support the “Kashmir Cause”. In hindsight, this seems to be more of an effort to divert attention from the problems the nation faced, rather than an expression of deep-seated sympathy for, or belief in, the “Kashmir Cause”.

This report will not go into the history of the disputed region of Kashmir, which had been claimed by both India and Pakistan since 1947, had caused three wars between the two, and had been the focus of a Pakistan-supported insurgency since the mid 1980s.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 01 Oct 2010 10:35


India had progressed in a diametrically opposite way to Pakistan, and had built a democratic tradition with a military under civilian control, on the lines of Western democracies. It had a flourishing economy and in 2010 was the fourth largest economy in the world, and the second fastest growing one after China.

Nevertheless, the country also continued to suffer from extreme poverty and illiteracy in a significant proportion of its population. Other problems included a very high level of corruption, a stagnating bureaucracy and justice system, and infrastructure in poor condition.

In 2010, the government of India had been formed by a coalition of parties, which was led through a complex multi-person system. Although ostensibly power lay with the prime minister, practically, the real centre of power lay with other politically significant persons. Further, decision making ability was severely compromised on account of the coalition system with no single political party able to form the government.

India in 2011, despite a growing economy, faced challenges in terms of strong leadership that would lead to quick and decisive action; in a high degree of inefficiency and corruption, as evident from its haphazard attempt to organize a showcase sporting event the year before; and in violent separatist movements in a third of the country (including Kashmir) that the government appeared to be unable or unwilling to cope with.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 01 Oct 2010 10:39


In 2010, the nation was experiencing a high degree of dissatisfaction with a democratic president in the White House who had been elected with high hopes but in the opinion of many, had failed to deliver. This resulted in Republican control of both houses following the 2010 house elections, and the subsequent political standoff led to a government that was unable to take any significant decisions. The country had also suffered its worst economic recession ever, from which a recovery did not seem imminent.

Post their election victory, the Republicans had begun to roll back most of the measures that the President had taken. The Democrats were disheartened and unable to mount an effective counter.

Apart from pressures due to internal affairs, the President had also come in for severe criticism for what was perceived as his key role in lowering American strength and prestige globally. From an all-powerful sole-superpower status a few years ago, the current USA was seen to be withdrawing from international affairs and was perceived to be a shadow of its former self. It was pulling back – and not with glory – from Iraq; it was unable to do anything about China’s currency protectionism; it was being gradually defeated in the domestically unpopular Afghanistan conflict; and it was increasingly unable to command any respect with states such as North Korea or even its long term allies in Europe (UK, Germany, France) and Asia (Japan, Korea).

The final straw was the utter collapse of the much vaunted Palestinian – Israeli peace talks in late 2010, which caused the region to descend into violent chaos. Repeated and increased terrorist attacks on Israel followed by an endless cycle of Israeli retaliation had caused US prestige in the region to nosedive. With the US being unable to significantly intervene, and largely supporting Israel with arms and aid, almost all Muslim nations had denounced the United States, some going to the extent of calling for sanctions against the USA. Oil prices had peaked, leading to further pressure on the country, and China was taking quick advantage of the situation by making inroads into the area.

Unable to progress anything on his domestic agenda, the President found himself in a situation where he had to make a bold move on the international stage, to rejuvenate the country’s prestige, particularly in the Middle East and the Muslim nations community, and to boost his low and falling ratings.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 03 Oct 2010 16:39

INDIAN EMBASSY - alan H.R. Rasuna Said, Kav. S-1, Kuningan,
Jakarta Selatan 1295 - 2000 HRS –DAY ZERO

Mrs Reshmi Nair looked at the confidential intelligence report just handed over to her by the station chief of intelligence gathering . The information contained in the precise report though not confirmed was explosive in nature to say the least .As she sipped her seventh cup of black coffee she was trying hard to decide how to convey the urgency of the situation to Delhi and how to impress upon MEA to act quickly to diffuse the situation and if that not possible – take all necessary steps to protect Indian trade and life on the region. She decide to fly back home for the important brief and not send in usual diplomatic pouch .
There was simply no time to loose

Indonesia is fearful of Australian support for Papuan independence, writes Hugh White.
February 8, 2006

In Jakarta, they fear that one of their worst nightmares may be coming to life. For years, Indonesians who know Australia have worried about what happens if the simmering independence movement in West Papua starts to catch the attention and sympathy of the wider Australian community. They fear a repetition of East Timor.
This is the lens through which Indonesia is watching Australia's response to the 43 Papuan asylum seekers now being processed on Christmas Island. A grant of asylum by Australia would mean that Canberra accepts their claims of murderous persecution. And once living in Australia, these people would be free to mount a campaign to promote independence for Papua.
Indonesia's worst fears will have been confirmed by the way politicians from opposite sides of Australian politics have expressed support for the asylum seekers since they have arrived. If this process continues, and public pressure starts to grow in Australia, what would be the chances that any Government in Canberra would stick with the oft-repeated formula about supporting Indonesia's territorial integrity? After East Timor, few in Jakarta are in any doubt. They worry that Australia would dump the bilateral relationship, and become an active, and potentially very effective, advocate on the world stage for Papuan independence.
The Indonesians have a point. It would be tough for any Government in Canberra to put concerns for the bilateral relationship with Jakarta ahead of growing public support for Papuan independence. That would look like going back to the bad old days that both sides of Australian politics have now repudiated, when the foreign policy elites ignored public sentiment and appeased Jakarta over East Timor.
This is why Indonesia's President called John Howard to talk about the issue. This is why the Indonesian ambassador in Canberra, and his Foreign Minister in Jakarta, have both warned that the relationship could be damaged by an Australian decision to grant asylum. And this is why Canberra is treading so carefully.
To understand just how sensitive the issue is in Jakarta, we need to take account of how they see both the Papuan issue, and Australia's role in it. Unlike East Timor, Papua was part of the old Dutch East Indies. That makes it central to Indonesia's image of itself as a nation, because the nation is defined by its succession to the former Dutch colonial holdings. Indonesia's success in wrestling Papua from the Dutch, who initially withheld it from the new nation, is one of Indonesia's proudest achievements
http://www.theage.com.au/news/hugh-whit ... 26589.html
Relations between the two countries reached one of their lowest points at the time of East Timor's secession from Indonesia in 1999. Following a United Nations agreement between Indonesia, Portugal and the United States, a UN-supervised popular referendum choosing between autonomy within Indonesia and full independence, was held on August 30, 1999. The people of East Timor overwhelmingly voted for independence. An Australian-led and Indonesian-sanctioned peacekeeping force, INTERFET, was sent into the territory to restore order following a violent 'scorched-earth' policy carried out by pro-integration militia and supported by elements of the Indonesian military
International moral opinion forced Indonesia to withdraw tacit support, the militias dispersed. INTERFET was replaced by a UN force of International Police, the mission became known as UNTAET, and the UNTAET Crime Scene Detachment was formed to investigate alleged atrocities.
Since 2002 a number of Islamist-inspired terrorist attacks in Indonesia have been directed at Western interests including the Australian embassy in Jakarta and the 2002 and 2005 Bali bombings, which killed a total of 92 Australian nationals. Indonesian diplomatic and consular premises in Australia received a number of hoax and threat messages in 2005. Both the United States and Australian governments have issued warnings against travel to Indonesia, advising their citizens of a continued risk of attacks.
Indonesia's strategic significance to Australia is revealed by the circumstance that 60% of Australia's exports pass by its Northern approaches. Indonesia is also the most populous country neighbouring Australia, and is nearer by landfall to Australia than all countries excluding Papua New Guinea. Ahead of Indonesia, Australia's favored trading partners include China, Japan, the US, New Zealand, South Korea, the UK, Taiwan, Singapore, and India.
The significance of Australia to Indonesia is firstly demonstrated by the existence of a maritime boundary between the two countries. Both countries have been concerned to definitively delimit that boundary for the purpose of protecting fisheries from encroachment and determining the limits of responsibility for vessels found in that area. The significance of Australia to Indonesia is less than that of its ASEAN co-members, particularly its close neighbors in the Philippines and Malaysia. Indonesia's highest trade volumes are with Japan, the USA, Singapore, Germany and Saudi Arabia


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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 03 Oct 2010 17:37

Sunday, August 15, 2010
By Ash Pemberton

In July, protesters in Jayapura carry banner reading "Special Autonomy failed: Papuan people's right to life is threatened". Photo: Hepuru.wordpress.com
West Papuan independence leaders have threatened a "total intifada" (uprising) against Indonesian occupying forces, following the failure of the August 4-5 Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) to discuss West Papua's demands for independence, the Sydney Morning Herald said on August 7.
The independence movement has regained international attention in recent months after mass demonstrations in June and July in West Papua's capital, Jayapura, calling for a referendum on independence from Indonesia. This has coincided with a campaign of harassment and intimidation from Indonesia's military, especially in the mountainous Puncak Jaya region in central West Papua.
The West Papua National Coalition for Liberation said in a statement: “For too long the West Papuan issue has been swept under the tapa mat of [Pacific Island] Forum meetings, but if the forum is to truly represent all Pacific peoples it must confront the occupation of West Papua.”
Vanuatu, as the new chair and host of the PIF, did not raise the matter as had been promised earlier this year.
Vanuatu has recently made strong moves in support of self-determination for West Papua. In June, the Vanuatu parliament unanimously passed a motion in support of independence for West Papua, as well as to sponsor a move to grant observer status for West Papua at the PIF.
Vanuatu Prime Minister Edward Natapei blamed West Papua's omission from the PIF agenda on the cancellation of last month's planned Melanesian Spearhead Group meeting, saying the topic needed to be discussed there first, Radio New Zealand International said on August 5.
The issue of West Papuan independence received no support from other PIF nations. New Zealand Prime Minister John Key said: “With the issues West Papua face, we respect Indonesia’s rights to exercise territorial authority.”

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 03 Oct 2010 19:59


Reshmi Nair - settled sown in the overstuffed embassy sofa as she started going through the voluminous report once again. Outside the vibrant city of Jakarta have just come alive with mesmerizing beauty .She knew she needed to sleep and be fresh for tomorrows 6 hr flight to Delhi and the debrief to follow at MEA . But still she wanted to be sure of her facts and the recommendation to minister and cabinet committee of security she was about to make
"West Papua is the western half of New Guinea, the second largest island in the world.
The island is divided into two parts, West Papua, which Indonesia has incorporated as a
province, and Papua New Guinea, an ex-Australian-administered territory that gained its
independence in 1975. The inhabitants of West Papua emigrated from Asia nearly 50,000 years
ago, during the last ice age. They consisted primarily of three groups—Negritos, Papuans, and
Melanesians—who are today categorized as a single race, Melanesians. Historically, the people
living in West Papua have been divided along clan and linguistic lines. In 1963, when the
Netherlands handed West New Guinea over to Indonesia, it included 200 languages among
500,000 Papuans in an estimated population of 700,000.4 Separate communities often came
together in loose political confederations and according to their common ecological conditions,
but relationships were often colored by competition for power over traditional lands.
West Papuans’ first contact with neighboring Malay cultures occurred as traders from the
Malay archipelago (now Indonesia) took herbs, spices, and slaves from the island, beginning at
least as early as the seventh century. Indonesia claims that the Java-based Hindu emperor
Majapahit included West New Guinea5 within his kingdom circa 1293. He did not make any
effort to inhabit the island or befriend the natives, and many historians dispute the view that
Majapahit’s empire extended this far to the east.6 European explorers discovered the island
along the Spice Route, and a Spanish trader claimed it for his king in 1545. The Spanish never
returned, and the island became home to a British settlement in 1793, during a period when the
European powers were vying for colonial territories in southeast Asia. When the British were
driven out by disease and the inhospitable landscape two years later, the Dutch quickly took their
place. The Netherlands declared its sovereignty over the western half of New Guinea in 1828."

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 04 Oct 2010 06:39


(--- continued ---)

In 2010, the nation was experiencing a high degree of dissatisfaction with a democratic president in the White House who had been elected with high hopes but many opined had failed to deliver. This resulted in Republican control of both houses in late 2010, and led to a government that was unable to take any decisions. The country had also suffered its worst economic recession ever.

Further, the Republicans had begun to roll back most of the measures that the President had taken. The Democrats were disheartened and unable to mount an effective counter.

Apart from pressures due to internal affairs, the President had also come in for severe criticism for what was perceived as his role in lowering American strength and prestige globally. From an all-powerful sole-superpower status a few years ago, the current USA was withdrawing – and not with glory – from Iraq; it was unable to do anything about China’s currency protectionism; was being gradually defeated in the Afghanistan conflict; and was unable to command any respect with states such as North Korea or even its long term allies in Europe and Asia.

The final straw was the utter collapse of the much vaunted Palestinian – Israeli peace talks in late 2010, with the region descending into chaos. Repeated terrorist attacks on Israel followed by an endless cycle of Israeli retaliation had caused US prestige in the region to nosedive. With the US being unable to intervene, and largely supporting Israel, almost all Muslim nations had denounced the United States, some going to the extent of calling for sanctions against the USA. Oil prices had peaked, leading to further pressure on the country, and China was taking quick advantage of the situation by making inroads into the area.

The President had to make a bold move on the international stage, to rejuvenate the country’s prestige, particularly in the Middle East and the Muslim nations community, and to boost his low and falling ratings.

By mid 2010, China had emerged as the world’s second largest economy and the fastest growing one. Despite occasional warnings of doom and overvaluation, the country continued to power forward on all fronts, including economic, military, and international.

Operating strictly on a benefit-to-self basis, China had proven its ability to engage with regimes of all kinds, with no preconditions, providing the tie-up was to its benefit. It was rapidly building up its military power, and had become increasingly assertive in the region. The key regional disputes it had included Taiwan regarding independence, Japan (territorial dispute), Philippines (territorial dispute), and India (large territorial dispute, Indian involvement in Tibet, and economic competition).

Prior to the conflict, China was content to deal with the situation in the region with a series of checks and balances, without committing itself and thus keeping itself free to continue building up its economy and military. For instance, it had successfully put in place a wide range of measures to counter any threat (economic or military) from India by promoting Pakistan and establishing bases in countries neighboring India.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 04 Oct 2010 06:41


All of the four countries involved in the 2011 conflict were nuclear powers, with the USA having the most potent weapons and delivery systems, followed by China; with India and Pakistan bringing up the rear. Nevertheless, in terms of readiness of usage, the order appeared to be reversed, with Pakistan most likely to use its nuclear weapons followed by India, China, and the USA, in that order.
Each country was a significant military force, particularly in the regional context of South Asia. However, each had its drawbacks as well.

Detailed force levels are provided in Appendix A.

3a. The United States continued to be, in 2010, the world’s most powerful military force, with an unmatched army, navy, airforce, and nuclear arsenal. It was also the world leader in military innovation, logistics, and deployment ability.

Nevertheless, these abilities were severely compromised on account of two factors: first, the unwillingness of the population in general to deploy or use these abilities anywhere worldwide. The country had gone through a bruising experience in the unpopular Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and had zero appetite for another global intervention.

Secondly, these capabilities had been declining, largely due to the economic recession leading to the unavailability of funds for the military, with several military spending and development programs either cancelled or facing severe cuts. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars had cost the country a lot of money, and the funds for another global intervention did not exist.

Thus, while the USA had the biggest stick globally, it was, for all practical purposes, unable to use it; the only exception was if it itself was attacked.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 04 Oct 2010 18:45


Reshmi Nair - rested her eyes and looked outside and down -the sky was clear and the emerald island s of Andaman and Nicobar chain of islands lay far below clearly visible against the azure blue skies . Unknown to her she was tracked at that very instant bu the multiple long range air defense radars of the IAF as it transited the designated international high altitude air corridor and not far away a pair of Mig 29K s were on strip alert to take care of any contingency in this sensitive air space .Further down the runway of Car Nic air base ,as it is lovingly called by airmen who work and live there , a full wing of Su-30 mki mk3 were going routine checks and certified clear for operation duty .

For Mrs Nair - this was not known and neither was her job to know how much importance was the air space to Indian armed forces or how crucial role this particular base will play in the coming days -once her recommendation to intervene militarily in west Papau to stop a possible genocide is accepted by government of India

Since Indonesia took over the rule of West Papua (Irian Jaya) from the Dutch colonial administration in 1963, indigenous West Papuans have endured human rights abuses, ignorance from the international community, and the destruction of their fragile ecosystems. As the situation now escalates, AWID considers the women of West Papua. By Rochelle Jones, February 2006
We are familiar with what happened in Timor-Leste. It took a human rights disaster for the international community to take a stand and support the East Timorese in their fight for independence from Indonesia . West Papua , it seems, is heading in the same direction. During the 1969 'Act of Free Choice', where West Papuans were allegedly given the "choice" to decide on independence or Indonesian rule, the Indonesian authorities placed under detention any prominent West Papuans likely to protest This resulted in sovereignty being handed to Indonesia, which was accepted by the United Nations, and subsequently, West Papuans have been living under the control of Indonesia ever since, touting the 1969 experience as an "Act of No Choice". Around 200,000 West Papuans have died under Indonesian control.
Only 4 years ago in 2002, members of the Indonesian military (TNI) brutally assassinated the West Papuan pro-independence leader, Theys Eluay, with 20,000 West Papuans attending his burial. In their most recent report, Human Rights Watch has reported a build up of troops in West Papua , with widespread displacement of civilians. Last week, a group of West Papuan refugees landed on Australian soil seeking asylum from what they described as genocide against the West Papuan people
The current situation
West Papua has some 240 different tribal peoples, each with its own language and culture. Together with the rest of the island of New Guinea , they are the "lungs of the Asia-Pacific, containing the last great surviving virgin rainforest after the Amazon". It is a complex terrain of issues that the West Papuans face. For over 40 years, they have had to endure a climate of intimidation and violence from the TNI and militias who operate to undermine and destroy any pro-independence thinking or action. Against the odds, West Papuans continue to fight for their identities:
"Our freedom fighters are poorly armed, often having to make do with spears and bows and arrows to fight the Indonesian army, yet despite our poor military equipment, we have been strong enough to stand up against Indonesia 's military machine for more than 30 years. No one can deny we are strong"
Official transmigration strategies of moving Indonesian nationals into West Papua are also rendering them a minority in their own homeland. The number of refugees taking refuge in the jungle as at the end of 2004 was over 6000 [1]. In addition, the mining and illegal logging of West Papua 's pristine ecosystems has left thousands of indigenous people landless, and has desecrated sacred grounds. TNI operations created over 11,000 refugees during 2003-5 [1]. To make matters more complicated, weapons smuggling into Papua New Guinea through West Papua from Indonesia is commonplace One author reports that there is increasing evidence that the TNI channel weapons into West Papua and then accuse West Papuan separatists of smuggling, using this for justification of repressive strategies such as "full-scale security operations to hunt down 'terrorists' and gun smugglers" These security operations have typically involved violence towards and intimidation of villagers, particularly those involved in pro-independence movements, and has included the raping and murdering of women - a haunting reminder of what happened in Timor-Leste.
West Papuan women
These complex issues are compounded for West Papuan women, as is the case with most conflict situations. Women face sexual violence, such as rape and coerced sex work, HIV/AIDS, and displacement from their land and livelihoods.
http://www.awid.org/eng/Issues-and-Anal ... -in-crisis

Down below the color of ocean changed from deep azure to greenish and she could see the east coast of India as her aircraft made landfall at Khammam in Andhra Pradesh and turned almost due north to intercept the Chennai -Delhi medium altitude air corridor with a gentle bank - another 3 hrs thought Reshmi and then for her all hell will break loose

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 05 Oct 2010 16:23


Group captain Manish Agarwal checked his watch as he looked on the contrails of a commercial airliner against the deep blue skies slowly diffusing out into horizon. The morning patrols of two Su-30 S have just returned and daily downloading of day’s high resolution digital photographs from Cartosat 3B expected to be on his table after lunch.

He weather was perfect for air operations except the strong north easterly wind during this time of the year making landing a bit tricky with full weapon load on the single runway even if it has been extended recently to 10000 ft .But is was not like this even few years back when he joined as young wing commander to restore to restore the air base ravaged by a devastating Tsunami.

The Tsunami in fact was a blessing in disguise –it highlighted the strategic importance of the base to the world and more importantly to the Indian political leadership. In a matter of years a full wing of Sukhois was Trans located to the base as the Jaguars were moved out to mainland. The Sukhois took over the maritime strike role too along with their standard role of air dominance

The Indian Air Force's base on the Car Nicobar island was devastated in the tsunami. One hundred and sixteen IAF officers and men, their wives and children died in the disaster. Little remained of the air base, which was established as India's southernmost defence post, a sentinel against the unseen forces lurking in regions nearby. The morning of December 26 changed all that.
In true military spirit, IAF personnel worked night and day to ensure that the air base was operational again, just three-and-a-half months after the ocean claimed 3,513 lives in Andaman and Nicobar. WingCo Manish , as he was referred to by the other officers, was the chief operating officer of the Car Nicobar Air Base then. He arrived at the base -- India's southernmost Air Force station in the Bay of Bengal -- on New Year's day, five days after the tsunami devoured the base, reducing it to a wasteland of rubble and corpses.
On April 14, the Car Nic Air Base resumed operations once again. In a few weeks, he and the other 26 officers stationed there, moved out of their college kind of room sharing arrangements in their office block to a newly constructed living accommodation. Made of special earthquake resistant material, the quarters are very basic -- one room with attached bath, two beds, separated by a table and a cupboard.
There were no frills, no luxuries and there is every possibility that officers will continue to share rooms like they have been doing these past six months. The amenities are very rudimentary but they know they are working in unusual circumstances 1,300 kms from the Indian mainland where the geographical location and the destruction of infrastructure has torn life and affected communication.
Picked up from different air bases in India, they were sent to Car Nic immediately after the tsunami to rebuild the air base from the dust.
When they arrived here, all the surviving previous staff was being evacuated. They were all so distraught that we hardly had any time for the formal handing over of charge by them. They just had to pick up from scratch. They did not even know stuff like where the keys to the cupboards etc werefter six months of clearing the debris, what remains is a chilling reminder of the tragedy. Cars laid in mangled heaps, homes seem to have been blasted into unrecognizable shapes -- second floors flung upside down, blackened trees lying in gigantic tangled piles. A refrigerator flung out of someone's kitchen was lodged in the branches of a tree.
The first priority was to get the runway working for relief activity and the men made use of whatever came their way -- even axes to chop the wood and manually pushed it off the runway.
The 9,000 feet runway, originally measured around 3,000 feet when it was constructed by the Japanese during their occupation of the island between 1942 and 1945 in the Second World War. It was taken over by the Indian Air Force in 1956.
Forty-five tons of epoxy was used to repair the runway. The repairs began every day, post 4 pm, after the flights for the day ended. The work went on through the night till 4 am. The epoxy needed three hours to dry and the flights resumed at around 7 am.

In the distance he could see the outlines of a detachment of navy Mig 29 k linning up for a final approach- flying out of carrier Vikramaditya they routinely came into Car nicobar for major overhaul –it was faster done on ground and on the way back they will carry the mail and spares for the aircraft on board . Car Nicobar was fast becoming an air/naval just like Port Blair which essentially handled the heavy transports from main land and operated the helicopter units
His personal blipper beeped shrilly – he was required at operations center underground urgently

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Pratyush » 05 Oct 2010 16:39

^^^ nice buildup

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 05 Oct 2010 16:45


Rear Admiral Nirmal Jain relaxed into his overstuffed command chair deep in the bowels of the carrier. He liked his new command and he liked the new carrier. He wanted to check the limits of the newly inducted ship and already she was delivering more than promised .At full power she was cruising at over 34 knots and her older escorts were complaining at the hectic pace .Except of course the two Delhi class destroyers who kept position effortlessly even in moderately rough seas .
Trailing behind was the supply ship Aditya and the four anti-submarine frigates . Somewhere down below and about 100 km forward on the projected sailing course was Arihant and Chakra both on their first operational sortie with the carrier
The command center glowed eerie green from the reflected light of the bank of consoles and data repeaters .The master tactical plot overhead showed the complete tactical picture of the ocean for 300 km all around the task force and constantly updated vide satellite imagery and aircraft on combat air patrol and also from the advancing screen of escorting submarines as they moved ahead of the task group sanitizing the ocean space .
Even in the so called sound proof shock proof confines of the combat information center he could still feel the thud as two Mig 29k returned from combat air patrol duty .Their replacements have taken off 15 minutes before . Indian navy did not take chance on their prized carrier even in peace times .

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Klaus » 05 Oct 2010 18:02

Shankar ji, welcome back. New scenario looking good, keep up the good work.

Vipin ji, welcome to BRF. Nice prologue.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Bala Vignesh » 05 Oct 2010 18:22

Shankar sir,
Nice come-back... I just request that you take this all the way through to the end of the scenario...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 06 Oct 2010 09:13


... (Continued Part 3 of the Report: The Military Balance in 2010)

3b. China in 2010 was rapidly expanding and modernizing its armed forces, and had developed a capability significant enough to dominate a regional conflict even if the USA and other western nations were involved (this statement is to be read in the context that the USA and NATO would not commit all there resources to a regional conflict such as a Taiwanese independence bid). In its backyard, China was supreme.

Nevertheless, China still suffered from obsolescence in its navy and air force. Although these services had received significant investment and new equipment, they were not yet on a qualitative or quantitative par with the USA; in fact, in a few areas, the Indians had better technology (for example, the SU 30 MKI program yielded Indian aircraft that were superior to any Chinese aircraft). However, overwhelming quantity more than made up for this qualitative deficit, at least in the region.

The second disadvantage the Chinese had was the lack of deployment ability, both in terms of platforms (such as aircraft carriers, transport aircraft, etc) and in terms of logistics to support any such deployment.

Thus, while China would dominate any conflict fought alongside its borders, its ability to deploy forces beyond those borders was, as of 2010, still very much limited.

3c. The Indian military forces in 2010 were a mix of world-class technology in some areas combined with a typical third-world capability in others. In terms of discipline, training, and professionalism, the Indian forces were at par with others worldwide. However, a lack of political vision and will, and sub-optimal equipment acquisition plans had dented the ability of the forces.

The Indian air force had some of the best aircraft in the region, and had learnt how to deploy and use them, but their numbers were very limited and inadequate to protect the nation from a serious attack by a capable nation, let alone support an offensive conflict of some duration.

The Indian army was well trained, well led, and well organized, with the will to fight, and had gained some war experience in local anti-insurgency conflicts. On the equipment front, it was severely compromised, however. Its artillery forces were outdated and few in number; and its armored forces had been struggling to induct appropriate equipment. The army was more than adequate to fight a local conflict with Pakistan, though tasks beyond that would start to stretch its ability.

The Indian navy was under strength in all departments, and was a mixture of a few new world-class surface assets with the remainder made up of outdated vessels and a few submarines. As an example, although it was the only navy in the continent with an aircraft carrier, both the carrier and the aircraft it deployed (the 1970s Harrier jump jet) were outdated and posed no challenge to any other navy operating aircraft carriers. It was a local-waters only force and had just begun to experiment with extended deployments.

3d. Pakistani armed forces had maintained their professionalism and discipline despite facing the twin handicaps of limited resources and their tendency to interfere in their country’s political affairs. The strongest element was the Pakistani army, which had a sizeable and reasonably modern armored and artillery force. Using a principle of beg / build / borrow / steal, the army had managed to keep its equipment up to date.

Pakistan also possessed, in the form of the ISI and its affiliated or supported Islamic terrorist/militant organizations, a significant asymmetric warfare ability. The country had decades of experience in shadow warfare, and had attempted, with very limited success, a local war with India using those abilities (Reference – Appendix B - Kargil Conflict Synopsis)

The Pakistani airforce had been in decline due to non-availability of advanced equipment, though it still retained the ability to inflict significant damage on an invader. Its offensive capabilities were limited.

The Pakistani navy was strictly a brown-water affair with very limited capabilities, though its submarine arm had received significant investment and was a potent local force in undersea warfare.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 06 Oct 2010 09:17


From mid-2010, increased Pakistani support to the Kashmiri insurgency, coupled with misrule and missed opportunities from the Indian and Kashmir government, had caused a massive increase in unrest in Kashmir. Rioting, stonethrowing, and deaths due to security forces action had become commonplace.

This further increased towards the end of 2010 as the Pakistani government, probably in a bid to unify the nation and ensure its own survival, started highlighting the Kashmir situation nationally and internationally. It also further increased its support for terrorists and insurgents in Kashmir, and gave the ISI free reign, although official policy was to deny such support, and offer only “moral” support.

The ISI also began an increased program of infiltrating members of the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistan Taliban, and other insurgent groups into Kashmir.

Attempts of the Indian government to calm the situation were half-hearted, and late. These included delegations of central politicians to Kashmir, announcements of various measures and programs, etc. These did nothing to calm the situation. Further, the government also stated that it had asked the Indian army and Indian security forces to “exercise restraint”.

The situation in Kashmir kept on escalating, with widespread and increasing damage to life and property.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 06 Oct 2010 09:28

The Raya Amirpur incident

Raya Amirpur was a small village in Indian controlled Kashmir (pop. 561 est.), with a wholly Muslim population, and would have gone down unnoticed in history except for the events of late 2010.

An Indian army convoy was ambushed near Raya Amirpur by a small group of insurgents at 19:20 hours approximately. The insurgents had planted effective roadside bombs (on the Iraq/Afghanistan pattern) which were well camouflaged. Post-incident analysis showed that these devices were of sophisticated manufacture including redundant systems and links, and included anti-personnel devices as well as a few anti-armour shaped charges. The co-ordinated explosions severely damaged vehicles in the army convoy and also caused multiple casualties.

As opposed to such roadside bombs in Iraq/Afghanistan, where bombings tend not to be combined with after-actions, in this case the insurgents stayed in the area, and opened fire with automatic weapons on the disoriented convoy after the explosions. The Indian army group was able to quickly re-organize and return fire, and after a brief exchange of fire, the insurgents melted away. By 20:00 hours, the convoy was able to sound the all-clear and begin tending to the dead and injured.

The ambush was significant in its being the first of its kind in the usage of sophisticated explosive devices of substantial power, in the post-ambush exchange of fire, and in that such an ambush had occurred in Kashmir after a very long duration. Previously, the Kashmir militants had not demonstrated any ability to manufacture or deploy explosive devices of such sophistication.

In accordance with standard Indian security procedures, the incident was immediately communicated to all Indian security forces in the vicinity, and an area-wide lockdown and a closing dragnet was initiated, to ensure that the insurgents did not escape. The lockdown-dragnet system was an established and well-tested practice that had been used multiple times by Indian security forces in Kashmir, and had played an effective role in reducing terrorist activity in Kashmir from 2008 onwards, since perpetrators of a terrorist incident were unlikely to escape.

At approx. 21:00 hours, about 30 personnel wearing Indian army uniforms reached the village of Raya Amirpur, which was about 4 miles away from the ambush site. Using loudhailers, the officer in charge ordered all the villagers to come out of their houses for a quick search.

At approximately 21:20 hours, when most (though not all) of the population were in the village centre, the army personnel opened fire without warning with automatic weapons on the crowd. Later official reports put the number of dead at 218, with several more injured. Casualties included a very high number of women and children, who were less able to flee the shooting.
The army personnel then left the area.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby parshuram » 06 Oct 2010 13:39

Nice Vi nit ... With Due respect ...But i am a bit irked when i see terms like Indian Controlled Kashmir or Indian Occupied Kashmir ... Request you to change it ... please refer J & K as it is and it should be POK that should be requiring explicit mention

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 06 Oct 2010 14:36


The chief of air staff, pushed back the black coffee as he picked up the confidential intelligence brief on Indonesian air force and naval aviation. Few minutes earlier he had a short conversation with the defense minister who has urged him to be ready for short “humanitarian” mission in the area against possible hostile intervention. No more details were given ,but based on his experience with similar “humanitarian mission in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka ,the chief of Indian air force was in no doubt about the nature of the mission ,which may land in his lap any time .

Ever since the Proclamation of Independence, domestic unrest has driven the development of the Air Force. In 1958, outlying provinces of Indonesia trying to break away from the central government with CIA support, were crushed one by one with the use of airpower. The former ML-KNIL aircraft played a major role, such as on May 18, 1958, when Captain Ignatius Dewanto, flying F-51D F-338 from Amahai, shot down CIA mercenary Allen Pope in an AUREV/CIA B-26B over Ambon harbour. The CIA pilot was taken prisoner.

Indonesia's first President, Ir. Sukarno, also confronted the Dutch in New Guinea in 1962, and the Malaysian Federation between 1963 and 1966. To support his plans, he started a re-equipment program in 1958. About twenty MiG-15UTI's (Czech CS-102), 30 MiG-17F's, 32 Il-28's and twenty Avia-14's arrived in Jakarta, ordered from Czechoslovakia. These were later augmented with a number of Mi-4 and Mi-6's from the Soviet Union. Also Poland provided arms for the Republic, as during 1958 and 1959 over 40 LIM-5/P fighters were delivered, together with eight SM-1 (Mi-1) helicopters. Polish pilots flew a small number of Avia B-33's. Finally, China delivered a dozen MiG-17's, Tu-2's, and some 24 La-11's, although the latter two saw little service. More large orders for Soviet arms were placed in 1961. These included 26 Tu-16 bombers, ten MiG-19's and twenty MiG-21's, thus introducing the AURI to the supersonic jet age. The only aircraft to arrive from the US, apart from ten K/C-130B's traded for the captured CIA pilot, were six B-26B Invaders in 1960, and about twenty P-51D Mustangs from 1958.

Again, global politics played a deciding role in the conflict over Dutch New Guinea. In early August 1962, it became clear that deployment targets for an Indonesian invasion of Dutch bases could not be met. Also, US U-2 recce planes were spotted over Indonesia, and Soviet submarines were known to support the Indonesian Navy. After the personal intervention of President Kennedy, President Sukarno cancelled the operation in August 1962, and the Dutch government was forced to deliver Dutch New Guinea into UN hands. Renamed Irian Jaya under Indonesian rule, the territory remains a hot-spot to the present day, seeing operational use of e.g. the B-26, OV-10, Puma and Army helicopters.

A new conflict involving the greatly expanded and modernised AURI began to unfold in 1963, when Malaya, Singapore, Sarawak, Brunei and Sabah formed the Malaysian Federation. In May 1964, President Sukarno called for the destruction of this Federation, and initiated a command that intensified infiltration's into Sarawak and Malaysia. However, after the loss of two C-130B's in 1964 and 1965, infiltration by air was stopped.

Ever since the first arms were delivered from the communist Eastern Bloc in 1957, the strength and influence of the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI), had grown considerably. On September 30, 1965 a violent Coup d'Etat was attempted in the capital Jakarta. With the murder of 6 high-ranking and one junior army officer, the history of Indonesia took a new turn. Within days, the army's Strategic Command under Major-General Suharto, later to become Indonesia's second president, defeated the rebels. The PKI was accused of the failed Coup attempt, and also Airforce Commander Omar Dani was arrested after the AURI was accused of active support. A bloody crackdown on (supposed) PKI supporters followed all over Indonesia, and many tens of thousands were killed. This also meant the end of Soviet support for the armed forces. Only in recent years have retired AURI members been able to speak out freely about this dark episode in their history, and make clear that the Airforce was never involved. At the time of the coup, the AURI had reached its peak strength, and was considered, in numbers, to be the largest Air Arm in SEA.

In August 1966, the Malaysian Federation and Indonesia ended the Confrontation. The years between 1966 and 1969 were one of the most difficult in AURI history. It had to regain the government's confidence, and rebuilt its forces without Soviet support. After many fatal crashes, most of its Eastern Bloc aircraft were withdrawn from use by 1970. A recovery program was initiated for the B-25, B-26 and C-47, additional F-51's were purchased, and the C-130 became the backbone of the AURI. General Suharto, who had regained support from the US, became Indonesia's second president on March 27, 1968.

In 1973, eighteen second-hand CAC-27 Sabre's arrived from Australia, as well as sixteen USAF surplus T-33A's and some sixteen Vietnam War veteran UH-34D's. They marked the beginning of the third revival of the airforce, having been renamed TNI-AU in early 1974. Both the Sabre's and the T-33's replaced the unserviceable MiG's. The only other (tactical) fighter still in service was the venerable Mustang, eight additional Cavalier T/F-51D's having been delivered in 1973. However, by 1975 they had also become unserviceable, and were replaced by the OV-10F in September 1976

In April 1974, the fascist Caetano regime in Lisbon, Portugal, was overthrown. This initiated civil unrest in Portuguese East Timor, or Timor-Timur, and a civil war erupted in the capital Dili, between pro Portugal troops and FRETILIN, the independence movement. In the mean time, Indonesia had launched a secret intelligence and destabilisation operation, and immediately took advantage of the situation. On November 28, 1975, Fretilin proclaimed the Democratic Republic of East Timor, but on December 7, Indonesia started OPERASI SEROJA, the invasion of Timor-Timur. That day nine C-130B's from SkU31 and six C-47's from SkU2 departed Adisucipto airbase, for Dili and Baucau, and 1000 paratroopers were dropped near Dili. A pro-Indonesian government was formed and Timor-Timur became an Indonesian province. Fretilin opposition continued into 1976 and in September, the first of sixteen OV-10F COIN aircraft were delivered to SkU3. They were frequently used in Timor-Timur from 1977, together with the A-4E and F-5E, as opposition to the Indonesian occupation never seized. After the economic recession of 1998, and the election of Indonesia's third President, Prof. Dr. Ing. B.J. Habibie, independence for East Timor became a possibility again. After a referendum on August 30, 1999, Timor Loro Sae, or Timor of the Rising Sun, became independent from Indonesia.

From 1976, the TNI-AU has seen a continuous period of modernisation and expansion. In 1980, the TNI-AU started replacing its venerable fighter force, when three new types entered service. On April 21, the first of twelve F-5E's and four F-5F's arrived, as replacement for the CAC-27 Sabre's with SkU14. Also arriving in April 1980, were fourteen A-4E's and two TA-4H's from surplus IDF/AF stock. They replaced the T-33A with SkU11. In September, the first Hawk Mk53's were delivered to Wing Pendidikan 1, and were operated next to the L-29. The Delfin soldiered on until 1983, when they were stored after twenty years of continued use, being the last Soviet Bloc type to be withdrawn. In 1982, SkU12 was reactivated with the second batch of sixteen former IDF/AF A-4E Skyhawks. SkU31 was re-equipped with the new C-130H-30 from September 1980. The patrol unit SkU5 at last received more modern equipment, when in 1982, the first of three B737-2X9's arrived, followed by a single C-130H-MP. This signalled the end for the UF-1/2 fleet, which was used until approximately 1987.

A dozen former Pelita H-500C's were delivered to SkU7 in December 1982, operating next to the Bell 47G's received from Australia in 1978. In 1981, SkU6 transferred its new Puma fleet to the reactivated SkU8, while retaining the re-engined UH-34D's better known as the S-58T. AS202 Bravo's replaced the last T-34A Mentors with W.P.1 from March 1981. They are used as elementary trainers, with basic training reserved for the T-34C since 1978.

As part of a large reorganisation, all the airforce squadrons were concentrated in two operational commands on April 1, 1985; Komando Operasi Angkatan Udara (KOOPSAU) I in Jakarta (for the Western part of Indonesia), and KOOPSAU II in Ujung Pandang (for the Eastern part of Indonesia).

In 1989, a contract was signed with Boeing to upgrade the B737-2X9's in use with SkU5. The modifications included an update of the Motorola SLAMMR, Side Looking Airborne Modular Multi-mission Radar. Aircraft AI-7301 was modified by Boeing and delivered by October 1993. Program MACAN (Indonesian for TIGER), or Modernisation of Avionics Capabilities for Armament and Navigation, is a major upgrade program involving the F-5E's and F-5F's forming SkU14. In 1995, a contract was signed with SABCA of Belgium. The first two aircraft arrived at Gosselies in May. Far behind schedule, test flying started in September 1997, and both aircraft returned to Indonesia in February 1999. The remaining ten F-5's will be upgraded at Iswahjudi with SABCA support, at a rate of three aircraft per five months. The present status of the project is unknown.

The first of eight F-16A's and four F-16B's were delivered in December 1989. These aircraft replaced the OV-10F in SkU3, and the Bronco's were used to reactivate SkU1. In November 1995, the airforce expressed a requirement for 64 F-16's to equip four squadrons, and showed an interest in the Pakistan Airforce F-16's stored at AMARC. After an initial agreement, President Suharto cancelled the deal in June 1997. Early August 1997, Jakarta announced the decision to purchase twelve SU-30KI's similar to the version delivered to India, with potentially an option for eight more. However, due to the monetary crisis, the deal was postponed in January 1998 until it resurfaced again in 2003, see later.

The last A-4's of SkU12 were transferred out in 1996, and the best aircraft are now concentrated in SkU11. Two ex AMARC TA-4J's were purchased, and after an upgrade in New Zealand, delivered in October 1999. In June 1993, the TNI-AU ordered eight Hawk Mk109's and sixteen Hawk Mk209's from BAe. The airforce's requirement over the next 25 years is reported to be 96 armed Hawks in eight squadrons, funds permitting. In May 1996, the first three Hawk Mk109s for SkU12 arrived in Indonesia. In June 1996, an option for sixteen additional Hawk Mk209's was exercised by the TNI-AU, and the first were delivered from April 1999 to the relocated SkU1 at Pontianak, replacing the OV-10F. Also the OV-10F's are to be withdrawn from use. They remain in use with the Unit OV-10 Bronco. This used to be the Bronco Flight until renamed SkU21 on September 11, 2004. However, after a fatal accident on July 21, 2005 the Bronco was withdrawn from operational tactical use and the unit was again renamed on July 26.

Also the transport units have seen new material arrive (and leave) during the past five years. The six remaining F27-400M's of SkU2 have been supplemented by IPTN CN235-100M's from January 1993. Three additional CN235-MPA's for SkU5 are part of a joint TNI-AU and TNI-AL order revealed in June 1996, but are yet to be delivered. The VIP unit SkU17 added two stretched IPTN NAS332L1 Super Puma's (VVIP models) to its fleet in 1993, followed by two ex Garuda F28-3000's in 1994. Also the two Merpati L100-30 Hercules transports were passed on to SkU17, and three L100-30's from Pelita to the TNI-AU in 1997. On the heli front, the H-500C's from SkU7 were sold in the US in early and mid 1996. In June 1997, an order for sixteen IPTN NAS332 Super Puma's was placed, comprising one VVIP, two VIP, seven Tactical Transports and six Combat SAR models. The first models were delivered to SkU6 in September 2001 starting the replacement of the S-58T's. Parallel to the delivery of the new Super Puma's, the TNI-AU has also embarked upon an upgrade and re-engine program for (at least) three older IPTN produced NSA330L Puma's. On February 27, 2004, the first Makila powered and redesignated NSA330SM arrived with SkU8.

The TNI-AU formed a new demonstration team in 1995 with F-16's from SkU3, known as Elang Biru (Blue Falcon). All aircraft received a striking blue/yellow colour scheme from December 1995. However, the team has been disbanded and the F-16's have received new (Millennium) colours in early 2000. A second display team, Team Jupiter, was formed on September 23, 1997, flying eight Hawk Mk53's from SkaDik.103. Today, also the Hawks, who are now part of SkU15 in a tactical role, have received new colours (Gray Spot) similar to the F-16's. In April 2001, the two demo teams were merged into one and named Jupiter Blue, flying three Hawk Mk53's, two F-16's and a single Hawk Mk109. After a fatal collision between two Hawk Mk53's on March 28, 2002, the team was disbanded. In May 2000, the TNI-AU revived the Wing structure for bases with two or more squadrons. On May 5, 2000, Wing 3 was formed at Iswahjudi, with other wings based at Halim (Wing 1), Abdulrachman Saleh (Wing 2) and Atang Senjaya (Wing 4).

In October 2000, word broke of a possible transfer of nineteen former Singapore Airforce SF260's, to the TNI-AU. They are seen as a compensation for the use of Indonesian airspace and facilities by the Singapore Airforce. The first six arrived on July 2, 2002, for use as special trainers by SkU2. All nineteen have arrived at Halim by now. In February 2003 ten aircraft moved out to Suryadarma. Also announced was the acquisition of the Eurocopter EC-120B Colibri as a replacement for the Bell 47G's of SkU7 at Suryadharma in 2003. The first two of twelve on order arrived in December 2001. In January 2001, the TNI-AU embarked upon a program to modernise its elementary and basic trainer fleet. It was announced that twenty KAI KT-1B Trainers are to be acquired, with seven to be delivered between May and November 2003. First flight of a TNI-AU KT-1B took place in december 2002, and the first aircraft entered service with SkaDik102 on July 14, 2003. They will replace (some of) the surviving AS202's and T-34C's with WP-1. In May 2005 five additional KT-1B's were ordered for delivery in 2007, with eight options remaining.

In a surprise move during a visit to Russia in April 2003, Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri signed a contract for the delivery of two Su-27SK's, two Su-30MK's and two Mi-35P's (destined for Penerbad). The export Flankers will have a drogue refuelling probe. The two Su-27's arrived with SkU15 at Iswahjudi on August 27, followed by the two Su-30's on September 1. They were officially handed over on September 20, 2003. In July 2004 the TNI-AU finally said farewell to the A-4 Skyhawk as the last few operational examples were withdrawn from use by SkU11 at Hasanuddin. On April 12, 2005 they were replaced by the Flankers as they moved in from Iswahjudi to claim their new hangar. More Flanker orders are anticipated but financial problems keep changing the plans. In December 2004 the sole SkU17 B707-3M1C was sold and replaced by a B737-2Q8 in February 2005.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 06 Oct 2010 15:34

parshuram wrote:Nice Vi nit ... With Due respect ...But i am a bit irked when i see terms like Indian Controlled Kashmir or Indian Occupied Kashmir ... Request you to change it ... please refer J & K as it is and it should be POK that should be requiring explicit mention

Parshuram, this is fiction, and I'm writing from an external point of view, i.e. as a CIA analysis team's report. They tend to use such terms, and that is exactly one of the elements I am trying to highlight.

I agree with you, but this is a fictional exercise to show a conflict from an external viewpoint which is not necessarily sympathetic to India.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 06 Oct 2010 15:51


It was a busy day at the airbase .Long lime of transport aircraft of all vintage was lined up on the tarmac –and boarding of special invasion troops was to start any time. On the opposite side of the runway were parked the 12 Su30 which will escort the transporters all the way to West Papau and the para troopers were the leading edge of a new heavily armed invasion force – raised with the express purpose of subjugating the independence movement with brute force on civilians .

Formerly called Ujung Pandang, the city of Makassar is the largest city in east Indonesia. Capital of South Sulawesi, Makassar enjoys a central location in the Indonesian archipelago and today Makassar is Indonesia’s busy air hub, connecting Sumatra, Java, Bali and Kalimantan in the west with Sulawesi, the Moluccas and Papua in the east.
In fact, ever since the 14th. century Makassar was already known as a thriving sea port where merchant vessels from far away China, India and Cambodia called regularly to trade in silks, tea and porcelain in exchange for cloves, nutmeg and pearls from the Moluccas and gold and forest products from Makassar and its hinterland. And when in the 16th century the Europeans discovered the sailing route to the coveted Spice Islands, the Spanish and Portuguese made Makassar their important entrepot to store valuable spices before shipment to Europe.
Meanwhile, in this southern peninsula of Sulawesi, the Bugis, Makassar and Mandar ethnic groups, known for their seafaring prowess and boat building skills, had already developed powerful kingdoms that encouraged trade, fishery, rice cultivation as well as literature and the arts. The Bugis epic poem I la Galigo is a recognized masterpiece in Bugis literature, as are the graceful dances and bright silk costumes of court dancers with their richly decorated accessories of wide gold bangles, opulent necklaces and tiaras.
In 1667 however, through the Treaty of Bungaya, Dutch merchants succeeded to oust the Portuguese and Spanish from Makasssar to make this port their stronghold, banning other Europeans from trading in Makassar. The Dutch destroyed the fort of Ujung Pandang built by the king of Gowa in 1545, and fortified this into Fort Rotterdam, which today still stands prominently on the waterfront of Makassar, while the king of Gowa was allowed to stay at Fort Somba Opu.
Many Makassar aristocrats who refused to be dominated by the Dutch, left the city and settled in Kalimantan , the Riau Islands and present-day Malaysia. The sultans of Selangor and Johore are Bugis descendents as are the sultans of Kutai Kartanegara in east Kalimantan.
Located on the busy trading route along the deep Straits of Makassar, the city of Makassar is a bustling cosmopolitan town with settlement of many races and ethnic groups, of Chinese, Europeans, Javanese, Balinese, Ambon and others, where local and international cargo ships continue to call at its busy port. While at its traditional port of Paotere, Bugis pinisi schooners can be seen lining the quay to unload goods from near and far away islands, and various types of fishing prahus, such as the pantorani, the lepa-lepa and the sandeq unload the day’s catch.
Today Makassar is also a university town, where youth from all over the islands, especially from the eastern archipelagos gather to gain higher education.

It also happen to house the most potent strike force of Indonesian armed forces

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 06 Oct 2010 16:18

US Calls On Indonesia To Advance Papua Autonomy
September 23, 2010
by lizryder

US Calls On Indonesia To Advance Papua Autonomy

By Shaun Tandon

WASHINGTON, Sept 23 (AFP) — The United States has called for Indonesia
to move forward on autonomy in its Papua region and insisted it would
not overlook human rights as it seeks broader relations with Jakarta.

Testifying in a first-ever congressional hearing on the long-simmering
conflict, senior US officials pledged to investigate abuse allegations
in Papua but said there was no evidence to back charges of genocide.

Indonesia in 2001 introduced autonomy in Papua — a vast, mineral-rich
province that shares an island with Papua New Guinea — but local
activists say that the law has half-hearted and not improved their

Joseph Yun, the US deputy assistant secretary of state tasked with
Southeast Asia, said that the United States opposed separatism in
Papua province and neighboring West Papua but supported a more
thorough autonomy.

"If the 2001 Special Autonomy Law can be fully implemented, we believe
that a lot of frustration currently felt by Papuans would decrease,"
Yun said.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 07 Oct 2010 13:49


As the soft spoken prime minister of India took the chair -the chattering stopped and the tea cups cleared out .Before everyone was the detailed report filed in by the Indian ambassador on the quickly developing situation in West Papau and her recommendation for a possible military intervention to prevent a genocide of unmitigated proportion as the Indonesian armed forces were getting ready for an armed assault to crush the independence movement of west Papau once and for all .

This course of action was not acceptable to international community but none of them were in a position to intervene militarily and turned to India for a "humanitarian relief mission" to be undertaken immediately -UN endorsement would come along after wards .

Reshmi Nair opened her presentation and the map of west Papau came up on the screen -she was a good speaker and to the point .The presentation took almost 2 hrs and by the time the lights came on it was lunch time .

Lunch in PMO is always good and wholesome - today's men was plain rice - chi ken tikka curry -vegetable raita and some sweets .Lunch over the discussion started and the service chiefs joined in the discussion - it was a tough call to make in such a short time but for once the prime minister was pushing the pace and very convincing .By the time the meeting ended it was almost late evening with no clear decision still in the horizon -but one thing was certain India was not going to stand by and watch a massacre happen


In 1999, the Indonesian Military staged a military intervention following the East Timor's referendum. The result was that more than 1,500 were civilians killed and 70 percent of Dili's infrastructure razed. In response, the United States and the European Union both imposed arms embargoes. Although the European Union chose not to renew its ban in 2000, the United States did not lift its embargo until November 2005. During this embargo the Indonesian government turned to Russia to supply them with arms including fighters, helicopters, missiles, radars and other equipment. In 2002, Indonesian Air Force continued to use all of its assets against local separatists, such as the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and Free Papua Movement (Organisasi Papua Merdeka, OPM). In the conflict with GAM in Aceh, the Indonesian Air Force utilized OV-10Fs for counter-insurgency actions along with BAe Hawk 53 and 209 with great success.
In July 2003, the Air Force managed to scramble two fully armed F-16 to intercept five U.S. F/A-18 Hornets maneuvering over Bawean Island off the Eastern coast of Java island. The incident ended peacefully through a Friend or Foe hand signal. A US spokesman said that the naval aircraft had sought permission to enter Indonesian airspace while escorting a US aircraft carrier, but that the request arrived too late at the air force defense headquarters in Jakarta due to red tape. [10]
In that same year, the Air Force received two Sukhoi Su-27s and two Sukhoi Su-30s from Russia. The fighters were partly paid for in Indonesian palm oil. The purchase, however, did not include any weaponry. Unbeknown to most, Seven KT-1b Korean basic trainers were also purchased.
By 2005 the Air Force was experiencing a logistical crisis. The F-16 Fighting Falcons and A-4 Skyhawk, which accounted for 80% of its air combat assets, were at the minimum or nil level of combat readiness.
To respond to the crisis, in 2006, the Indonesian Air Force ordered three Sukhoi Aerospace Su-27SKM and three Sukhoi Aerospace Su-30MK2 to complete a full squadron. It was also made public that the four aircraft procured in 2003 were inactive and awaiting an upgrade of their communication systems, as they were incompatible with the Indonesian systems in use. The additional aircraft will be ordered with systems complying with the Indonesian and international standards and would also include new weaponry for all variants. [8] A further 12 KT-1b Korean basic trainers were also ordered in 2006.
Modernization included purchasing new F-16C/D Fighting Falcons to strengthen the F-16 squadron, upgrading the current fleet of C-130 Hercules to modern C-130Js and buying newer C-130Js to supplement the inventory, purchasing newer advanced trainers and light attack aircraft for COIN operations, purchasing new radars and receiving new logistical equipment from both Western and Russian manufacturers. The Indonesian Ministry of Defense also expressed an interest in buying approximately two squadrons of refurbished Dassault Mirage 2000-5 from France, complete with Matra Magic II and MBDA MICA air-to-air missiles. France recommended the Dassault Rafale to Indonesian Air Force, since Dassault had decided to stop the production of Dassault Mirage 2000. The Indonesian Air Force is also showing interest in the newly made Chengdu J-10 Vigorous Dragon and JF-17 Thunder from China, and also the SAAB JAS-39 Gripen from Sweden, all suitable options for succeeding the aging Northrop F-5E/F Tiger II. In March 2008, Indonesian Air Force ordered 8 Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano from Brazil to replace its Rockwell OV-10F Bronco. . [11] Up to 16 more Super Tucano may be acquired eventually. [12]
To date, the Indonesian Air Force has only acquired four types of missiles - the AS-1 Kennel (KS-1 Kometa), AIM-9 Sidewinder, AGM-65 Maverick and AA-2 Atoll (Vympel K-13). There are plans to purchase more advanced air-to-air missiles, such as AA-10 Alamo (Vympel R-27), AA-11 Archer (Vympel R-73), AA-12 Adder (Vympel R-77) and AA-X-13 Arrow (Vympel R-37), as well as other air-to-ground missiles (AS-14 "Kedge" (Kh-29), anti ship missiles (AS-17 "Krypton" and AS-13 "Kingbolt"), general purpose bombs and cluster bombs from Russia, to be carried by their Flankers. At this time, Indonesian Flankers are armed with Indonesian made (US licensed) Mk.82 bombs. There is a possibility that Indonesian Air Force will also purchase extremely long range air-to-air missile Novator KS-172 AAM-L, after the Indonesian Army evaluated and showed their interest in purchasing S-300PMU "Grumble" and SA-17 "Grizzly" missiles.
Local weapons are being developed such as P-100 air-to-ground bomb manufactured by CV Sari Bahari Malang, East Java. P-100 has been successfully tested in Su-27 and Su-30 for ground attack missions. Further massive production is subject to approval from Ministry of Defence.
During an interview with Air Chief Marshal Imam Sufaat for Angkasa (Sky) magazine, he said that the Government have picked Russian made Yakovlev Yak-130 and Chinese-made Guizhou JL-9/FTC-2000 Mountain Eagle as the replacement of attack/trainer role of BAe Hawk 53 and counter-insurgency/attack role of Rockwell OV-10F Bronco. [13] Indonesian Air Force is now in the process of recoloring all of the aircraft, one new-colored pattern is discovered during the take-off and landing practice by 1st Squadron pilots of BAe Hawk 209 in Supadio Air Force Base, Pontianak, Kalimantan Barat. [14] . The Ministry of Defense also discussing the possibility of co-operation on combat fighter manufacturing with South Korean KAI, possibly T-50 Golden Eagle and its fighter/attack version F/A-50 Golden Eagle, and Korean Aerospace Industries KF-x (4.5 generation fighter). [15]

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby VikB » 07 Oct 2010 17:06

Recently I bought and read "the conspirators" by Brig Yash Mohan, VSM. Review: with all due respect, the Brigadier has got overdose of hollywood+bollywood. He has combined incest, swapping and all other masala that he could remember. Not worth a read.

The interesting thing was this http://www.filejumbo.com/Download/73490273B941D640
essentially the publisher - Manas publication is exhorting knowledgable people to write. Problem is that all current crop of writers (like Brig Mohan) think that people want a bollywood potboiler from them. There is no serious war/spy related writings by Indian authors that are backed by solid technical info.

We have quite a few good writers here - Vivek, Shankar, Sidhanshu and others. Request you people to seriously consider writing professionaly. Honestly, we need some Indian writers in the league of Jeff Archer, etc. Propoganda is the name of the game today.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 07 Oct 2010 22:46


Prime minister of India got very little sleep and an avid and fast reader . He kept the report submitted by the air chief and remembered the essentials effortlessly -which he will sleep over then in the morning decide if to act decisively or not at the impending man made disaster about to happen in the far away west Papau.He knew the world was looking at the nation he is leading to set an example to prove to humanity that military force is just not to push economic advantages or security but also can and will be used to protect the very values on which the perhaps the oldest civilization of the world stood upon.

"Peace enforcement as the nature of the mission is likely to be in west Papau will call for offensive air power to be deployed and selectively employed to meet the specified humanitarian objective.Very few countries in the world has such capability on a large even on a limited scale to deploy and sustain such operation far removed from their shores.Through the deployment and sustenance of helicopter fleets in strife torn regions of Africa Indian air force have already established its strategic reach and will to act decisively reflecting the will of the global civilized community to prevent humanitarian disaster.It also proved the ability to deploy at strategic range even short range rotary wing aircraft can achieve strategic effect in support of nations power projection capabilities

The best example of employment of fixed wing aircraft for peace enforcement in the Indian context was deployment of one squadron of Canberra (no 5 squadron) in 61-62 Congo operations. A bomber fleet was called in to ward off threat from two lightly armed aircraft whcih were causing havoc with ground operations and air support for the beleaguered Indian army ,was efectively provided by the IAF in a distant continent -showing clearly how use of air power facilitates interference free ground operations at strategic distances .

Pece enforcement may also include a degree of coercion by projecting the overwhelming ability to deter another party from a potential hostile action.One example is during sri lankan crisis how four An 32s escorted by an equal number of Mirage 2000s entered hostile air space to carry out a symbolic humanitarian air drop of rice bags whcih ultimately forced the sri lankan government to sigh the peace accord few weeks later"

The prime minister closed his eyes but still could not sleep - he knew he will be sending some of countries youngest and best to harms way in few hours time . He prayed they all would come back home safe knowing that may not happen

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Vinit » 08 Oct 2010 07:27

Raya Amirpur incident: aftermath

The incident received wide publicity across the world, overshadowing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Iranian nuclear weapon efforts, and the turmoil in North Korea. The words massacre and genocide were freely used, most of all by Pakistani media and the Pakistani government, who repeatedly condemned the incident and asked for international intervention.

The first reaction was from Pakistan, who issued an official statement of concern, asking the world and the Islamic nations to "work towards stopping the genocide of Muslims in India."

Indian Reaction: Reaction from the Indians was mixed. Amongst the immediate reactions were:
• Kashmiri politicians denounced the Indian army and called for its immediate withdrawal.
• A few non-mainstream national politicians also made similar statements.
• The Indian media was quick to accuse the Indian army, with several prominent liberal anchors openly pointing fingers at the army in a sensationalist fashion, particularly on television where the incident was the topic of lurid reports by over-enthusiastic reporters for many days. These TV reports however have no value in terms of facts, evidence or investigative rigor and have not been included in this report.

The official Indian statement of the time expressed shock, deep regret, and promised a thorough investigation.

The official Indian investigative report issued later points out that a thorough investigation did not show any Indian army unit moving to the village at that time, and that all arms, ammunition, and vehicle movement was accounted for.

Further, a later search recovered ashes and remains of burnt uniforms at a location some distance away, and an abandoned 3-ton truck in Indian army colors at another location. The reports also outline two other incidents that it says were related, under which Indian security forces fought and killed two separate groups of militants in the week after the incident, within the boundaries of the original cordon.

The report also provided eye-witness corroboration, for example, about how one of the attackers did not respond to the name “Deepak” (a Hindu name) despite being called many times by the officer, and appeared very embarrassed when a fellow attacker had to nudge him to respond.

The official Indian position was therefore that the Indian army was not involved; that this was likely the work of terrorists seeking to malign the Indian state; and that investigations continued.

A few Indian politicians did explicitly state that Pakistan was behind the attack. However, the Indian Prime Minister’s Office immediately clarified that this was not the official Indian position and that it would continue to work with all neighbouring countries to foster regional peace and harmony, provided they took their regional responsibilities seriously as well.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 08 Oct 2010 17:41


Ase Mou; one of the frontline leaders of armed movement to free West Papau from Indonesian control was a deeply worried man . He has some how managed to hand over a detailed dossier on brutalities of Indonesian security forces to the lady ambassador at Jakarta at great personal risk with an earnest request for the Indian Government to intervene and stop the killing .So far no reply has come in and was still waiting for the signal which would be broadcast over All India Radio in the form of a particular local music played between two scheduled film music programs 2000 hrs Indian time .It was almost 1955 now and Ase was sure unless Indians intervened people of his land will be cleansed of the land of their birth in a weeks time .Indonesian armed forces were getting ready for an out an out ethnic cleansing and this time they will not show even the slightest mercy

West Papua borders the independent nation of Papua New Guinea and forms the western half of the world's second largest island. West Papua became the twenty-sixth province of Indonesia in 1969 after the so-called "Act of Free Choice", sponsored by the UN, saw the transfer of official administration from The Netherlands, the colonial power, to Indonesia. The province was in 1973 re-named Irian Jaya, "Victorious Irian", by the Indonesian President, General Soeharto. The indigenous movement rejects this name and identify themselves as West Papuan. Resistance to Indonesia had begun in 1962 when temporary authority was first given to Jakarta, and continues to the present.
Over the twenty six years that Indonesia has held official control of West Papua, the indigenous population has endured one of the twentieth century's most repressive and unjust systems of colonial occupation. An on-going war has been fought against a popularly supported indigenous movement opposed to Jakarta's rule, and against members of the civilian population who stand in the way of Indonesian "development". An escalation in killings recently, especially around the massive Freeport copper and gold mine in the central highlands, has been widely reported in the Australian and international media.
The indigenous people of West Papua are of the same ethnic origin as those in the eastern half of the island of New Guinea and are also related ethnically and culturally to other Melanesian peoples of the Pacific. Yet under the Indonesian government's Transmigration program, the indigenous West Papuans are being reduced to a minority population due to an annual influx of over 10,000 families of sponsored migrants from Java and Sulawesi and an unknown number of "spontaneous" migrants. The widespread appropriation of land for new settlements, forestry concessions, mining projects and farming has led to numerous large-scale conflicts between the Indonesian military and dispossessed tribespeople, particularly in the late 1970s, 1984, and again in 1990-92 and 1994-95.
Indonesia does not regard the West Papuan people (or other communities) as indigenous and subordinates adat (traditional) law to the national interest. This denies a fundamental feature of West Papuan life and identity, viz relationship with the land, leaves the West Papuan people fundamentally defenceless in the face of development and transmigration policies, and absolves Indonesia of any obligations under international instruments and mechanisms.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby biswajit » 09 Oct 2010 09:57

Dear Shankar sir, glad that you returned after a long break. But with all due respect may i request you to complete your earlier thread before starting a new one.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 09 Oct 2010 13:32


The neat row of F-16 fighting falcons lined the runway as the ground crew finished uploading the ground strike weapon packager including cluster bombs air to ground rockets and 100 kg iron bombs and moved back and the fuel browsers also moved back as the flight crew took over .

Six falcons will be taking part in today’s strike mission on the main rebel base in west Papau – an intimidation mission to send a clear message to rebels to surrender before the ground offensive begins in a few days time.

No serious opposition was expected and so only air to air weapons the falcons carried was a pair of AIM 9L side winders on wing tip pylons
Apart from bombs all the aircraft carried full load of 20mm shells for their internal cannon to be used on terrified civilians after the initial bomb run
Todays target was a school building which was as per intelligence reports used by the Papau rebels as communication center. The order was to raze the building to ground.

The airfield is located at Maospati, Magetan, near the city of Madiun on the west side of East Java capital province of Surabaya. It is named after Iswahjoedi, an Indonesian aviator who, together with Halim Perdanakoesoema, lost mysteriously in Malacca Strait while going back to Indonesia from India.

The six falcons took of in thunderous roar with full after burner and headed south east at high altitude at most economical cruise speed of 450 knots. None of the pilots or those on the ground who planned the mission had any inkling of how this mission will some day change the face of conflict forever.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 09 Oct 2010 14:00


It was annual sports day at Jayapura public school and the school ground was full with young eager spectators almost 2000 strong cheering their classmates to victory .In view of the school function ,the freedom fighters have moved out of the school building few days back to a nearby building with their weapons and communication equipment . But the communication antennas on the school roof were yet to be dismantled
The sky was over cast and cloud ceiling was low making it an ideal day for outdoor sports in this hot and humid part of west Papau
West Papua refers to the Indonesian western half of the island of New Guinea and other smaller islands to its west. The eastern half of the island is Papua New Guinea.

The population of approximately 3 million comprises indigenous ethnic Papuans, Melanesians, and Austronesians (largely immigrants from other Indonesian areas). The region is predominantly dense forest where numerous traditional tribes live such as the Dani of the Baliem Valley, although the majority of the population live in or near coastal areas. The largest city in the region is Jayapura. The official and most commonly spoken language is Indonesian. Estimates of the number of tribal languages in the region range from 200 to over 700, with the most widely spoken including Dani, Yali, Ekari and Biak. The predominant religion is Christianity (often combined with traditional beliefs) followed by Islam. The main industries include agriculture, fishing, oil production, and mining.
Human habitation is estimated to have begun between 42,000 and 48,000 years agoThe Netherlands made claim to the region and commenced missionary work in nineteenth century. The region was incorporated into the Indonesian republic in the 1960s, which remains controversial with much of the territory's indigenous population, West Papuan nationalist organisations, and some international NGOs and advocates of West Papua self-determination. Following the 1998 commencement of reforms across Indonesia, Papua and other Indonesian provinces received greater regional autonomy. In 2001, "Special Autonomy" status was granted to West Papua, although to date, implementation has been partial. The region was divided into the provinces of Papua and West Papua in 2003.
The region has also been called Netherlands New Guinea (1895–1962), West New Guinea (1962–63), West Irian (1963–73), Irian Jaya (1973–2001), and Papua (2002–2003). West Papua is the name preferred by indigenous Papuans.
Jayapura City is the capital of Papua province, Indonesia, on the island of New Guinea. It is situated on Yos Sudarso Bay (formerly known as Humboldt Bay). Its approximate population in 2002 was 200,000.

From 1910 to 1962, the city was known as Hollandia and was the capital of a district of the same name in the northeast of West New Guinea. It was briefly called Kota Baru and Sukarnopura before assuming its present name in 1968. The literal meaning of Jayapura, as of Jaipur in Rajasthan, is 'City of Victory' (Sanskrit jaya: "victory"; pura: "The northern part of Dutch New Guinea was occupied by Japanese forces in 1942. Allied forces drove out the Japanese after amphibious landings near Hollandia, from April 21, 1944. The area served as General Douglas MacArthur's headquarters until the conquest of the Philippines in March 1945. Over twenty U.S. bases were established and half a million US personnel moved through the area

The six F-16 came in low and came in fast through the low clouds ,lined up on the school building with their festoon of communication antennas still in place ,sighted the crowd on the open ground and let go of their weapon load one by one , climbed steeply out and away – without knowing the devastation they have wrought on ground
On the school playground the cluster bombs played havoc on un protected children and their teachers. In few minutes a happy mob of youngsters were reduced to multiple piles of limbs and bones and the ground turned brick red as the ground quickly soaked up the small rivulets of blood .
Very few survived the clinically efficient ground strike – out of a total of 2000 odd children attending the event barely 323 survives most of them with serious shrapnel wounds. For the rest even identification would be difficult

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 10 Oct 2010 12:46

The world community was shocked at the barbaric act and gross violation of all norms of civilized society as photos of school bombing made head line news all over the world .The usually soft spoken prime minister came out strongly in a news conference at the end of air force commanders meet in Delhi.


Prime minister is pushing the United Nations to declare a no-fly zone over west Papau, enforced if necessary by the bombing of Indonesian military airfields used for raids on the province, the TOI has learned.
The controversial initiative comes as a classified report by a UN panel of experts alleges Indonesia has violated UN resolutions by moving arms into west Papau, conducting overflights and disguising its military planes as UN humanitarian aircraft.
PM has been pushing for much tougher international action against Indonesia since President Hassan reneged earlier this month on last November's agreement to allow UN peacekeepers into Papau west to protect civilians.
More than 20000 people have been killed in the course of a counter-insurgency by government forces and allied militia, and more than 0.1 million have been forced to flee their homes. Humanitarian supplies to thousands of refugees are tenuous and threatened by continuing violence on the west Papau .

Talks are under way at the UN Security Council over a package of sanctions being pushed by India Britain and the US and Russia, which includes an arms embargo and the freezing of assets of Indonesian leaders implicated in the Papau ethnic cleansing.
Speaking in Delhi on Sunday, Prime minister described the situation in Papau as "intolerable" and said: "We need to consider a no-fly zone to prevent the use of Indonesian air power against native population and displaced people."
According to PMO , he is pushing for a no-fly zone to be passed at the same time as the new sanctions package, in the form of a "chapter 7" security council resolution, allowing the use of force. "There could be an agreement in the security council that there could be a no-fly zone. If the Indonesian government broke that agreement there would have to be consequences," said a source.
A no-fly zone, of the kind enforced in Iraq before the invasion, has been widely dismissed by military experts as impractical over Papau, which is the size of west Bengal. But the TOI has learned that Indian US ,Russian and British officials are considering a cheaper alternative: punitive air strikes against Indonesian air force bases if Jakarta violated the no-fly zone.
The example being considered is not Iraq, but Ivory Coast, where the French wiped out much of the Ivorian air force while its planes and helicopters were sitting on the tarmac, in November 2004. The air strikes were in reprisal for the deaths of nine French peacekeepers in an Ivorian raid on rebel-held areas in the north.
PM s push for tough action is likely to be given a considerable boost by a new, still classified, report in New York by the UN's panel of experts on Indonesia. According to an official who has seen it, the panel found evidence that the Indonesian government was continuing to ship arms into Papau and conduct air force operations over the province in violation of UN security council resolution 1801, passed two years ago.
Investigators also spotted an Antonov-26 plane painted white and parked at a military airport. "The panel noted with concern that the plane had a UN logo painted on the top of its left wing," a UN internal document said. "It was parked on the military apron next to rows of bombs." The panel spotted another white Antonov at a military airport on March 1.
PMO is stressing that the prime minister would prefer to act in concert with other security council members, but Indonesians defenders at the UN, led by China, are likely to resist any resolution backed by force. Asked whether the UK and the US would attempt to rally a "coalition of the willing" against Indonesia in the event of a security council impasse, a PMO source said: "We'd have to judge that if we failed."
The initiative for such tough action is being driven by PM himself, often in the face of skepticism in the external affairs and Ministry of Defense. The MoD in particular distanced itself from the idea yesterday. "There are absolutely no plans for any Indian military action at all in Papau region of Indonesia," a senior defense source said. But Indian military officials did not exclude the possibility that the IAF had contingency plans to strike Indonesian airfields.
Prime minister is said by his aides to believe the ethnic cleansing to be a defining moral issue. "The prime minister believes in a values-driven foreign policy and believes you have to evenly apply those values to have any credibility. He sees West Papu as a test of the international community's commitment to its own values," a PMO source said.
The prospect of a no-fly zone was welcomed by the independent International Crisis Group think-tank. "The government in Jakarta is using its air force to bomb its own civilians and to resupply its troops and allied militias killing its own people. That's a pretty good reason for a no-fly zone," Andrew Stevans , the ICG's media director, said.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 10 Oct 2010 13:06


Is the home to malyasian Su-30s and when IAF needed a operating base in the region under UN charter –Malyasia was only to happy to oblige .Apart from paying back an old friend it was also a great opportunity for the young Malaysian pilots to learn from expert flanker pilots of Indian air force under actual combat condition.
Away from public glare IAF Su-30 MKI s started Trans locating from Car Nicobar along with their ground support equipment and weapon pallets. Within a week 2 squadrons have shifted to their new home. The tanker and AWAC support were yet to join

Kuala Lumpur: Malaysia's decision to allow Indian Air Force to groom, train and equip its frontline Sukhoi pilots is a proof of the southeast Asian country's faith on New Delhi, a senior IAF officer has said.

"The fact that a foreign country is permitted to groom, train and equips your frontline pilots is by itself a testament of the confidence and faith they have in us. This is a strong demonstration of a high-level of friendship and diplomacy which is very commendable," IAF's chief flight instructor Group Captain KVR Raju was quoted as saying by the New Straits Times.

Russia and India are committed to bolster Malaysia's air defense and combat capability, so far as the Sukhoi Su-30MKM Flanker squadron is concerned, Russia's warranty team leader Vladimir Konnov and the IAF's team chief Group Captain KVR Raju has asserted.

Meanwhile, defence superpowers like China, Britain and France are reportedly providing supporting roles via various transfer-of-technologies and offset deals to enhance Malaysia's defence prowess, local news reports said.

Raju is leading an Indian contingent of four instructor pilots, one weapons systems officer, two engineers, 22 technicians and two administrative servicemen.

The IAF pilots would be retained until August, while their colleagues would return after the completion of their two-year tour of duty in July.

The trilateral Russian-Indian-Malaysian collaboration was something unique as it provided a stepping stone for the country to groom its next generation of airmen, the IAF officer said.

"Thus far, our assessment of the RMAF crew shows they are of an exceptional high standard and I am confident the current crew will pass on their expertise and experience to others to take Malaysia to the next level of competency," New Straits Times quoted Raju as saying.

Aircraft engineer Konnov said that while his team was responsible for the aircraft's serviceability, performance, snag rectification and technical support, they also ensured that the Malaysians mastered the required skills.

"The Sukhoi is a very complex and complicated aircraft to operate. As Malaysia is still in its infancy, it will be wise to retain the Russian and Indian specialists to fully acquire the proficiency and realise its potential," he said.

Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) 11th Squadron commanding officer Lt Col Mohamad Asghar Khan said the country's "love story" with Russia and India began in 1994 with the purchase of 18 MiG-29N Fulcrum aircraft under a 1.3 billion Malaysian ringgit deal.

The RMAF officer, who was among the pioneer MiG-29N pilots, said Malaysia's involvement with the two countries had since blossomed to a "love affair" with the Su-30MKM purchase.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 10 Oct 2010 16:17

some times the line between fiction and reality cease to exist as happened when started writing this scenario based on a discussion on Su-30 thread - as was researching into the issue the reality shocked me -this is a real problem calling for a real solution -may be this scenario will be acted out for real too in not so distant future or islanders will keep on dying at the hand of Indonesian security forces -only time will tell -Authors note )
Video sheds light on Indonesia security forces

By ROBIN McDOWELL (AP) – 1 day ago
JAKARTA, Indonesia — The jumpy video shows a prisoner lying in a jungle clearing in eastern Indonesia moments after troops allegedly sliced open his abdomen with a bayonet, sending intestines tumbling from his stomach.
Using the little life he has left in him, Yawen Wayeni lifts his arm into the air, and says weakly, "Freedom! Papua ... Freedom!"
At the sound of his muffled voice, gun-toting, uniformed officers resting in the shade approach.
"Speak up," one taunts. "What? You all are never going to get freedom."Link :


One year after the activist's death, footage being circulated online is providing a glimpse into the actions of Indonesia's security forces in Papua, where an estimated 100,000 people have been killed since the former Dutch colony was integrated into the country nearly 50 years ago.
A low-level insurgency in the province remains an extremely sensitive issue for the government, which restricts access to foreign journalists, human rights workers and academics, making it difficult to verify claims of abuse.
Police have said Wayeni, captured for allegedly vandalizing several of their buildings and vehicles, was shot in the thigh and stomach while resisting arrest and that he died on the way to the hospital.
Harkristuti Harkrisnowo, a director general at Indonesia's Ministry of Law and Human Rights, said Tuesday she was unaware of the video but promised to investigate.
Indonesia has made tremendous strides toward democracy since emerging from decades of dictatorship under Gen. Suharto in 1998. Citizens today can vote directly for president and the country has been praised for reforms that have freed the media and vastly improved human rights.
But government critics in Papua are still given lengthy prison terms for peacefully expressing their views, organizing rallies or simply raising separatist flags. Human rights workers and inmates say many have been tortured in detention, with electric shocks, beatings and cigarette burns.
The central government, which granted Papua special autonomy in 2001, denies such atrocities still take place.
"For all their talk about how things have changed since Suharto's days, this particular murder is just another example reminding us how much remains the same," said Richard Chauvel, a senior lecturer at Victoria University in Australia who has written extensively about Papua.
The video also points to broader feelings that special autonomy — which gives Papuans greater control over their budget and economy — has done little to address key issues driving attitudes in the province.
Thousands have turned out in the streets in recent months demanding that candidates for elected office at the sub-provincial level be indigenous Papuans, something senior officials in Jakarta flatly rejected as "discriminatory," exacerbating tensions.
Sidney Jones of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, said government leaders, with few exceptions, "do not understand that the only way to stem an independence movement is through serious attention to political issues.
"At the same time, the Papuans themselves tend to blame Jakarta for everything that has gone wrong, without too much introspection what they themselves could do."
This is a huge gap, she said, that can only be bridged if high-level discussions are held about political issues.
Others believe outside pressure is required.
Fifty members of the U.S. Congress signed a letter saying there is a strong indication that the Indonesian government has committed "genocide" against the Papuans and called on President Barack Obama to make it "one of the highest priorities of the administration."
Even so, as part of efforts to shore up influence in the region amid increasing challenges from China, Washington last month lifted a decadelong ban on military assistance to a notoriously violent commando unit, known as Kopassus, which operates in Papua.
The seven-minute video appears to have been made by the Korps Brigade Mobil, or Brimob, the paramilitary police who took part in the arrest. It too has a legacy of abuse in Papua.
It's not clear how the clip made its way to the Internet, and few here have seen it.
The troops caught up with Wayeni at his home in the jungle village of Matembu on Aug. 3, 2009.
Wayeni's wife told the Commission for Disappearances and Victims of Violence that they tied his arms and legs to a log and forced him to chant "Free Papua!" before slicing him in the abdomen with a bayonet.
They all but ignored him as he stumbled to the ground, landing in a patch of rough grass and propping his head up on a log.
"Look, he's tired," one officer says as the prisoner's head lolls back, his eyes rolling.
The police ask Wayeni if he is an atheist and call him a "savage," saying his prayers will never be answered. They then ask how, in his condition, he thinks Papua will ever shake free of Indonesian rule.
"It's equally surreal and horrific watching as the grievously injured Yawan Wayeni answers teasing questions from uniformed Indonesia security forces about his political beliefs," said Phil Robertson, a deputy director at the New York-based Human Rights Watch.
Getting medical help, he notes, seems the furthest thing from their minds.
Despite his suffering, however, the dying man refuses to give in.
"This land was promised by God to us, the Papuan people," Wayeni says. "God, the suffering of the simple people, there are so many! They are crying, oh God!"
Associated Press Writer Irwan Firdaus contributed to this report.
Yawan Wayeni: http://hub.witness.org/en/upload/killing-yawan-wayeni
(This version CORRECTS Adds that US congressmen accused Indonesia of 'genocide' in their letter. Corrects story in previous cycle to say that offending troops were paramilitary police, not soldiers. Links photo. Note the video link at end of this story contains graphic images.)


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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 11 Oct 2010 13:37


Rear Admiral Nirmal Jain sipped his steaming cup of black coffee as the carrier group around him got ready for imminent hostile action . The high security operational directive from naval headquarters was expected anytime which will allow him to engage Indonesian forces on and around Papau island at will and barring nuclear weapons he will be free to use any weapon system at his disposal anytime and that was considerable

Like all true military me Nirmal did not like war in fact he subtly hated it but also knew the necessity of war –like now to protect the simple innocent people from the savagery of a corrupt nation and its despotic leaders

As he was transiting the sensitive water off the coast of northern Australia and Indonesia the combat air patrol was doubled to two pairs of Mig 29k S with a pair of Ka 31 s providing AEW coverage .

With just over two dozen Mig 29K at his disposal ,Rear Admiral knew he cannot enforce a no fly zone all over west Papau 24x7 effectively . But at the same time he did not want to start a full scale war with Indonesia – as yet, by striking their main air bases.

As he checked his e mail – he also saw one from his 18 year old daughter doing bio technology in a Pune college .She has attached with her e mail a small news item on west Papau with a cryptic note “daddy we are all proud of you”

Police in Wamena, Papua killed Ismail Lokobal, fired near fatal shots at Amos Wetipo (which resulted in him slipping into a coma) and Frans Lokobal and arrested of at least 4 more persons. The shootings into the crowd and following arrests in Wamena, Papua followed the confiscation of an air cargo delivery to a local community security organization. Organization members protested at the airport office against the confiscation.
On 4 October 2010 at 8:30am the police at the airport post (KP3) of Wamena town, Papua confiscated a delivery meant for PETAPA (Guardians of the Land of Papua), an indigenous community security organization via Trigana Air's plane cargo service from PETAPA's headquarter in Jayapura. The delivery included uniforms for the organization members, Rp 40,000,000 (4500USD), a mobile phone and several documents. KP3 staff at Wamena airport admitted that "these items were detained at the request of the Wamena police who had already received a report that the items in question were under suspicion".

Two trucks with crowd control units of the police arrived along with other vehicles. The delivery items were immediately seized and Amos Wetipo, Head of PETAPA for Wamena area was interrogated. Seeing this situation develop, various members of PETAPA arrived at the KP3 airport office. As the situation escalated the police fired into the unarmed crowd of protesters. The sound of gunshots triggered panic. In the ensuing chaos, three people were shot, at least 4 people (Laorens Logo, Johanis Heselo, Aleks Wetapo, Oto Wetapo) were detained by the Jayawijaya Resort Police, and several more were wounded. (photo: Laorens Logo, arrested, source:DAP) PETAPA member Ismail Lokobal, died at the scene of the incident of a bullet wound to his torso. (see photo here) It is reported that he had sought shelter in a nearby office of the Papuan Customary Council while police were shooting indiscriminately. Amos Wetibo was shot in the head after he refused to get down from a police truck. He was rushed to the hospital where he is now in a coma. Frans Lokobal was shot in his wrist and also brought to hospital.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 11 Oct 2010 15:57


On the flight deck Lt Commander Rohit Dixit waited his turn. Loaded with more than half a dozen air to air missiles and hundreds of rounds of 30mm shells for his nose cannon he would be for the first time flying into potential real combat. Also were loaded a full load of latest generation flares and electronic countermeasures to fool any incoming missile. So far no MiG 29Kof this squadron have seen any combat and he was in a strange way looking forward to bag a falcon or at least a sky hawk.


The automated unidentified aircraft detection system bleeped suddenly. Linked to all the surface search radars any un identified aircraft entering the protected airspace of 200 km around the carrier group was automatically tagged and an audible alarm issued

The officer on watch reacted as he was trained to do in such a situation .As he punched in a command the computer responded without hesitation


- captain we have a possible situation –two hostiles inbound – 195 km and closing – 2000 meters – 900kmph – request permission to launch aircraft for positive identification
-permission granted –launch aircraft immediately- bring up two more to ready to launch status
- xo to air boss – cleared for immediate aircraft launch – retain two on CAP – target vector coming up

-copy that xo – aircraft launch sequence initiated –launch in 3 minutes
- clear deck fro helo launch -now
-deck clear for helo launch
-launch helo –now
The single sea king wobbled into sky and took up position on the starboard to take care of any possible take off related accident
- helo in air
- clear deck for aircraft launch –launch both aircraft on ready status – get two more on stand
- copy that –initiating aircraft launch now


- black panther lead – tower – cleared for immediate take off – possible bandit –unidentified –
- tower –black panther –message understood – rolling –now

Rohit quickly checked his straps ,tightening them up unnecessarily once more time ,the pre flight was already over ,still checked the essentials – hydraulics on master 210 bar ,on undercarriage 75 bar , flaps set to take of ,auto pilot off ,auto brake off , deck clear ,wind over deck 30 knots , restrainer to deck active ,as he bent forward and closed the ignition on port engine ,waited a few seconds as the rpm settled down quickly on the green band lower and then started the starboard engine ,avionics on ,HUD came on clear and sharp ,power slowly up to max and then past the reheat gate to full after burner ,all weapons green , and nodded to ground crew

The wheel lock disengage smoothly and the fulcrum sprinted across the short runway ,pushing him to the ejection seat 36K as it accelerated quickly past the take off speed leaping into air as it climbed off the 14.3 degree ski jump and started nosing up ,roihit pushed down on the stick gently to keep the nose level and build up the air speed for a few seconds and then slowly pulled up the nose smoothly rotating into a climb profile ,retract undercarriage ,all gear light turned red immediately confirming smooth withdrawal ,gentle turn to starboard to clear the take off path for his wing mate ,retract flaps ,air speed up to 650 km /hr ,altitude 2000 meters and climbing .

- black panther lead –tower – request intercept vector – over
- black panther lead – black panther two –forming up on you
- lead to two – roger
- tower –black panther lead – climb to 5000 meters –change course to 085 –distance to target 142 km – you are not weapons free repeat you are not weapons free at this stage
- black panther lead –tower – climbing to 5000 meters –changing course to 085 repeat 085 – understand not weapons free now –request permission to active
- permission granted black panther lead – go active now –over


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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 11 Oct 2010 23:07

Practical work to adopt Mig 29 to carrier take off and landing duty started in 1982 august 21 when MIG29KVP first made a simulated take off from a ski jump with the basic intent that some day Mig 29 should fill the counter air role in a carrier battle group of Soviet Navy However full scale development started only in 1984 .The objective was to provide air defense upto 30000 meters along with destroying ASW assets and AWACS ,make anti shipping strike and also act as escorts when needed to long range land based bombers of VVS .

The basic airframe design was based on land variant Mig 29 M .However special care was given to corrosion protection since it was to operate from high humidity saline environment .Much care was given to selection of material of construction ,protective coatings ,non metallic seals and gaskets.The main fuel tank was strengthened considerably to absorb without distortion the augmented load envisaged during landing and arrested braking .

From the operational point of view to reduce approach and touch down minimum speed wing span was increased to 12 meter with consequent increase in wing area to 43 meter square. Also the wing featured a modified TsAGI P-177M air foil instead of basic P-177 double slotted flaps inboard and flaperons outboard .The dorsal fin housing the chaff flare dispensers were eliminated and the dispensers were relocated to aft fuselage. The hydraulically mechanism to fold the wings vertically to minimize storage area requirement –reducing wing span from 12 to 7.5 meter .The wings were all welded construction to improve fatigue resistance .The Radome also could be folded upwards to decrease overall length to just over 17 meters

The landing gear struts were lengthened and featured heavy duty longer stroke shock absorbers and tie down shackles. Specialized mechanical linkage reduced the overall length of the undercarriage so that standardized wells could be used.The steering mechanism was also modified ,allowing it to rotate +- 90 degree for ease of on deck movement.A small approach light was added to make the job of landing system officer on deck easier .The tyres were changed to higher pressure ones with a fill pressure of 285 psi .The brake chute was discarded and a arrestor hook with rebound damper was added in place of brake chute canister


On the master display the air battle emerging near Indonesian coast was played out real time. INSAT 4E relayed the voice communication direct from combat information center of Vikramaditya and the Ka 31 AEW relayed back through the same satellite the moving map display on the pilots multifunctional display along with weapon status and engine parameters and the relative position of the still to be identified possibly hostile aircrafts (visually ) though all the flight parameters clearly confirmed the unidentified aircraft as F-16 A fighting falcons .

All the sensor inputs were also processed on board Vikramaditya attack computer console as well as to a limited extent on Ka 31 on board system, duplication filtered out and the tactical data uplinked to satellite orbiting 35800km over equator and down linked to navy earth station on the outskirts of Delhi

So in fact senior officers on navy’s situation room had two independently verifiable data links and could theoretically take charge of the air battle any point of time through the navy tactical net ,though they rarely did so .

The vice chief came in almost at a running pace and took in the situation quickly and the fact that the Mig 29k s were still not weapon free – a possible fatal mistake according to his pilots instinct and set about rectifying the situation immediately

- get on horn to Viky air war commander – now- tell him me thinks it is risky to approach those unidentified birds with locked weapons – do it now
- aye sir ,mumbled the commander in charge of tactical communications as he quickly typed out the instructions and punched the transmit button on the console
in less than 3 seconds the instruction from vice chief flashed on the master tactical display on vikramadityas combat information screen but it will be 60 more seconds before the necessary instructions would be issued over the secured voice link .

And that delay of 63 seconds in taking a vital decision could have proved near fatal

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 12 Oct 2010 20:29

By 1994 over 500 Mig 29s have been delivered to air forces of 16 nations and thereby making it the strongest competitor of F-16 in market place and in combat .This included India-Pakistan scenario too incidentally. The Mig 29 is a comparatively light fighter like the Mig 17 19 21 design philosophy having the basic design requirement of high speed ,high rate of climb and operating altitude. necessity of good field performance meant having excellent low speed handling characteristics and high all round visibility, high engine power getting translated to high thrust to weight ratio and minimum possible wing loading.

Compared to this F-16 is a light weight air superiority fighter designed to operate into combat along with F-15 . But Mig 29 was never conceived of flying and fighting alongside the heavier Su 27 . Its objective was to achieve air superiority in the forward battle area without working in concert with Su-27 .This way the Mig 29 fitted into a niche F-16 and F-15 both with respect to armament and avionics and only drawback was shorter combat radius in the early fulcrum models which was later rectified particularly in Indian Mig 29k s

Performance wise both falcon and fulcrum are stressed for 9G operation .Both have prominent leading edge root extensions and air intakes designed specifically for high alpha operation .The Mig29 uses an integral design layout where the wings and fuselage blend together to form a single lifting body .The F-16 is more orthodox in this area with separate fuselage and wings along with air intakes optimized for maximum agility in the transonic region and the design also enabled flat rated engine performance up to mach 2.0.

The Mig 29 was designed for higher speed right from the start .So the designers opted for a variable four shock intakes that will allow steady engine operation right up to mach 2.35 .The intakes were located ventrally to minimize air flow distortion at alpha operation or during high G abrupt turns – in the process making Mig 29 perhaps the most agile aircraft at high speed of all aircraft without thrust vectoring engines.


-black panther lead – tower – you are weapons free as of now –repeat you are weapons free –confirm understood –over
-tower –black panther lead – message understood loud and clear- we are weapons free as of now
- tower – two bandits turning in towards task force – request permission to engage – now
- black panther – tower -confirm unidentified aircraft as hostile – possible F-16 falcon – you are cleared to engage in 30 seconds if it keeps closing in on task force –over

-tower –black panther lead – copy that –no change in course – bandits have just increased speed – suspect trying to get in missile launch range –engaging now –over
-black panther –tower – engage and destroy targets – good luck and good hunting

The reflexes took over as Rohit signaled his wing man to spread out and act as reserve strike position then quickly flipped back the acrylic cover over fire button and at the same time selected all the four R-27 on the weapon status display and also threw the arming icon and the four missile icons turned red and the head up display started blinking SHOOT prompt

Still Rohit waited to be sure till his own radar warning receiver bleeped continuously and he knew the falcons have him locked and may launch any time .

He squeezed four times with a carefully measured 3 second interval and one by one the long heavy missiles with pointed radomes dropped into the slipstream and ignited their solid motors . Arched up into the sky first and then acquired their targets and dived after them on a blazing tail of fire .

Rahul and his wing man broke up and reformed at sea level just in time to see both the falcons disintegrate into the blue sky and then tumbling into the pristine ocean in a messy ball of dark smoke and orange fire

- splash two falcons –tower do you confirm
- black panther lead –tower –we confirm two falcon kills – good show boys – stay in position till replacement in air – good work once again

In the distant horizon the ocean claimed its gory prize ,two gleaming aircraft with two young bright men now reduced to few shreds of flash and bone and molten scrap.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 13 Oct 2010 09:40


It has become necessary once again to appeal for attention to the Melanesian people of West Papua, for the continuation of the struggle for self government and full independence from the Indonesian colonial administration.

Our struggle for independence is not new, we have fought against the Indonesian colonial administration now for thirty-four years. We were cheated by the Dutch and Indonesian Governments in 1962 with the New York Agreement and again in 1969 with the Act of Free Choice. We thought we could trust their supposed genuine support for our people and nation but instead we have been left with one of the most vicious colonising nations to have emerged.

Furthermore we were punished by the United States, Australia, France and the Netherlands Government for they ignored our cries for recognition and self determination then, and now seek to destroy us by collaborating with the Indonesian Government on economic, business and arms deals at the sole expense of our people.

Whatever the decision made by the New York Agreement, and the Act of Free Choice, or Pepera, we have been excluded. However we have never given up, as we believe that colonialism in all her forms, manners and methods will sooner or later be eradicated. It is happening now for the worlds political climate is volatile and given the UN proclamation that 1994-2004 be the decade for Indigenous Peoples, we view this as an "open window policy", for the Melanesian people of West Papua to achieve our goals of self determination and independence.

Therefore we would like to bring to your governments attention and consideration for supporting our case at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly. The following are requested to Your Governments Sir(s).

1. To initiate lobbying, support for sponsor petition to rescind the UN General Assembly Resolution No.2504 of November 25, 1969 regarding West Papua or West Irian remaining a part of the Indonesian Republic.

2. To support lobbying for and to put the West Papua case on the list of decolonization at the United Nations Committee 24.

3. Calling for internationalizing the territory, and preparing it for self governance and full independence, possibly by the end of the year 2000.

We are looking forward to your Governments favourable policy to support us at the upcoming UN General Assembly and also at international conferences. We hope that the above will become a historic decision for us and that you will be "a living hope" for the suffering Melanesian peoples of West Papua and for the future of our children.

Yours Faithfully,

Moses Werror Jr
Chairman OPMRC

The prime minister in his characteristic style finished reading the letter slowly and then opened the discussion . Todays agenda was weather enforcement of "no fly zone" is enough to guarantee the safety of Papua people or some infantry presence is required .

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Postby Shankar » 13 Oct 2010 09:49

The minister of external affairs started presenting view point of his ministry based on the confidential report presented by Reshmi Nair ,Indian ambassador in Jakarta. He was from Bengal and by nature emotional . In course of his nearly 30 minute speech he made a passionate plea for immediate insertion of ground troops into west Papua to stop the massacre by Indonesian security forces

"Indigenous peoples have the right to own, develop, control and use the lands and territories, including the total environment of the lands, air, waters, coastal seas, flora and fauna and other resources which they have traditionally owned otherwise occupied or used. This includes the right to the full recognition of their laws, traditions and customs, land-tenure systems, and institutions for the development and management of resources, and the right to effective measures by States to prevent any interference with, alienation of or encroachment upon these rights. "
Logging is one of the major causes of environmental destruction in West Papua. As Indonesia's own forest resources decline, it has turned its attention to West Papua. Indonesia's forest practices generally have little or no attention paid to the environmental impact of logging. Many of the indigenous people of West Papua are threatened as vast tracts of land have been granted as concessions to timber companies, a practice which is having severe social and physical consequences.
The island of New Guinea is one of the most biologically diverse in the world. There are species of flora and fauna in common with Australia, such as some marsupials, the bird of paradise and eucalyptus trees. Numerous species, unique to the island, are threatened by logging and other development projects.
Second only to the Amazon, the island of New Guinea has one of the largest tracts of tropical rainforest left in the world. West Papua's forests, rich in bio-diversity, account for approximately 34.6 million hectares or 24 per cent of Indonesia's total forested area of 143 million hectares. Over 27.6 million hectares of forest in West Papua have been designated as production forest.

One of the most recent conflicts is between the Moi people and the Intimpura Timber company. Like other indigenous communities in West Papua, the Moi way of life is being threatened. Under Indonesian national law all land, not being actively used for agriculture, housing or industry, is state property. In 1990 the government granted a logging concession of 339,000 ha to the Intimpura Timber Company, without informing the traditional landowners. The Moi people have resisted the encroachment of the company on their land, and have made representations to the company, local government, forestry service and the army (in Indonesia, the army assists in national development and was in fact the initial owner of the logging concession). However, the government, company and the army remain firm in their policy of not recognising any form of land rights. As the Moi have continued to protest they have been accused of being "security disturbers" (the official term for the OPM, and used to silence any form of indigenous protest).

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