China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

[vina]

The Chinese are being seriously idiotic and overplaying their hand. With the US and Japan coming out clearly and giving them the birdie, they are looking like a bunch of fools and have lost a lot of face.

If the Chinese stupidly follow up their bluster with military, they will get a serious bloody nose. That Lioaning or whatever Ding Dong , their refurbished carrier is called will be in the bottom of the ocean before you can say Ni Hao Ma .

[DavidD]

The Chinese are being seriously idiotic and overplaying their hand. With the US and Japan coming out clearly and giving them the birdie, they are looking like a bunch of fools and have lost a lot of face.

If the Chinese stupidly follow up their bluster with military, they will get a serious bloody nose. That Lioaning or whatever Ding Dong , their refurbished carrier is called will be in the bottom of the ocean before you can say Ni Hao Ma .

It's not bluster, it's a small step toward changing the status quo. China wants the islands to become like the Spratleys. That is, it wants it to become a truly disputed territory which they can make a move without raising too much of a fuss (e.g. Scarborough Shoals) rather than one that's technically in dispute but everyone knows who the real, if not necessarily rightful, owner is (e.g. the Falklands). The Diaoyu/Senkakku islands currently is more like the latter, but in 20 years it could be different, and by then the Chinese MAY have both the hard power and the "disputability" to take those islands.

Power is a zero-sum game, wherever a new power emerges, some older power must be weakening, and such power transitions are fraught with conflicts, hot or cold. As an ascending power, China will undoubtedly ruffle many a feather along its rise and only the strongest will survive.

I'd also like to compliment the U.S. on its very nuanced approach to this latest Chinese escalation. They sent two unarmed bombers barely into the ADIZ, lending some credibility to their claim of innocuous "routine exercise". However, if you look at their flight patterns, how they entered the ADIZ 200km away from the disputed islands and skirtedly exactly within a few kilometers of the ADIZ north for a few hundred km then back, it is very obviously a challenge to the ADIZ. If the Japanese had done this, it would've been seen as a provocation and yet another counter-escalation of tensions in this tit-for-tat game of escalations/counter-escalations, but since it was the Americans, it goes over much easier with the Chinese public. In short, they were able to demonstrate support to the Japanese without incensing the Chinese too much, all the while challenging the new ADIZ and be seen as a response rather than a counter-escalation. Very well done.

[ashish raval]

^^ think, it is about time for Japanese to test n-bum then. picture abhi baki hai dost.

[chetak]

^^ think, it is about time for Japanese to test n-bum then. picture abhi baki hai dost.

The one last turn of the screwdriver....... , before the banzai??


The chinese have already lost serious face because of the amir khan B-52 flypast through the no fly zone

[Neshant]

China wants Japan to test a nuke.

They also want to force Japan to spend more on its military so its economy slides further down hill.

Then there will be one less major buyer of US treasury debt.

Japan however is on thin ice. They need to export to China however China does not need them as much.

[ashish raval]

^^ Japanese assets across the world is way above its debt hence it pays one of the lowest interest rate to the world. Japanese economy will not get affected by testing bums or spending more on Military. The only thing they will loose is being the Moral Nuclear Police of the world. They have enough capability to produce the bum in 30 days if push comes to the shove.

[Neshant]

Japans debt bubble is getting ready to pop.

Their money printing spree is a last ditch attempt to do what 20+ years of stimulus aka deficit spending could not do. It will end in the same way - a mess.

Now in addition to expensive Fukushima disaster, they have to deal with the possibility of war & more military expenditure.

Their industry is already in decline due to stiff competition from South Korea (and eventually China).

Japan is like an old man going into retirement and China knows it.

[ashish raval]

^^ Beg to disagree. Markets are X times ahead of individual mere Mortal (99% of time) and Markets does not feel that way.
Japanese have substantial investment in young nations around the world, which will pay for their retirement. Population decline can be addressed by flip of a hand by giving cash payments to mothers for babies, something that Russia does. Besides, how do you address China being middle-income nation and growing old simultaneously due to one child policy, more horrible prospects. SoKo is already going Japan way with respect to growing old, so no threat from that side.

[NRao]

China Explains Handling of B-52 Flight as Tensions Escalate

At a briefing in Beijing, the Foreign Ministry said the quiet reaction to what was a clear test by the United States of the new zone was “in accordance” with the rules announced by the Chinese Defense Ministry. China’s response to foreign aircraft in the new zone would depend on “how big the threat” was, the spokesman said.

So, next step - send armed bombers and perhaps a few F-16s.

[NRao]

Airspace Claim Forces Obama to Flesh Out China Strategy

With the United States dispatching two B-52’s to reinforce its protest over China’s attempt to control the airspace over the islands, it served as a timely reminder that President Obama wants to turn America’s gaze eastward, away from the preoccupations of the Middle East.

If it is the latter, Mr. Green said, the United States needs to project military power in the region, build up the defensive capacities of allies like Japan and the Philippines, and align the countries that ring China’s coastal waters to present a united front against Beijing’s aggression.

[TSJones]

Japan to pay 3.1 billion to help move Marines out of their noisy Futenma air base.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/10/03/j ... s-to-guam/

Picture of Futenma: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Marin ... 100526.jpg

There are no Marine F-18's stationed at Futenma. Mainly choppers, Ospreys, and KC-130 refueler/cargo planes.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... /36mag.htm

However no talk about moving US Airforce base Kadena.

List of forces at Kadena:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kadena_Air_Base

[raj-ji]

China wants Japan to test a nuke.

They also want to force Japan to spend more on its military so its economy slides further down hill.

Then there will be one less major buyer of US treasury debt.

Japan however is on thin ice. They need to export to China however China does not need them as much.

It's a very strange business relationship between the Panda and Japan. I would say though it is not as one sided as people would think. Massive Japanese firms like Sony have huge manufacturing plants in Pandaland. If they close shop, that would cause thousands to loose jobs. It would also send a signal to other firms that they should consider moving out too. It's could cause a big domino effect that can take the wind out of the sails of the Panda economy.

Moving those facilities is not a quick thing. Will take time, but my guess is the Japanese are already planning this. Especially after Japanese businesses got targeted. And now with this posturing.

Time for us to step up and offer the Japanese incentives to move more manufacturing to India. That will kick the Panda in the pants in more than one way.

[member_28131]

Time for us to step up and offer the Japanese incentives to move more manufacturing to India. That will kick the Panda in the pants in more than one way.

^ Thank you for saying this. Unfortunately our leaders are too busy with the polls to pay attention to such opportunities.

[Misraji]

China Explains Handling of B-52 Flight as Tensions Escalate

At a briefing in Beijing, the Foreign Ministry said the quiet reaction to what was a clear test by the United States of the new zone was “in accordance” with the rules announced by the Chinese Defense Ministry. China’s response to foreign aircraft in the new zone would depend on “how big the threat” was, the spokesman said.

So, next step - send armed bombers and perhaps a few F-16s.

LOL. The bigger the threat, more muted the Chinese response ....

--Ashish

[raj-ji]

Time for us to step up and offer the Japanese incentives to move more manufacturing to India. That will kick the Panda in the pants in more than one way.

^ Thank you for saying this. Unfortunately our leaders are too busy with the polls to pay attention to such opportunities.

Good point. Sad but true.

[raj-ji]

China Explains Handling of B-52 Flight as Tensions Escalate

At a briefing in Beijing, the Foreign Ministry said the quiet reaction to what was a clear test by the United States of the new zone was “in accordance” with the rules announced by the Chinese Defense Ministry. China’s response to foreign aircraft in the new zone would depend on “how big the threat” was, the spokesman said.

So, next step - send armed bombers and perhaps a few F-16s.

Does anyone else wonder why B-52s. The US didn't send fighters that would have crossed this zone quickly. Or transport aircraft that are flying into those bases. They chose n capable B-52s that are slow enough so they are in that zone long enough for the Panda to notice. The B-52 which a Cold War relic, different if they sent a B1 in there. So message from the US to the Panda, you concern us so little that we won't even bother sending our good stuff. We'll send our old stuff and you still can't do anything about it. You know this must have had the Japs laughing their rear ends off.

As for the 'Art of War' type gestures. Seems like it is the US sending a very clear message to the Panda. And the muted response from the Panda speaks volumes.

[Victor]

Time for us to step up and offer the Japanese incentives to move more manufacturing to India. That will kick the Panda in the pants in more than one way.

This is going to be near impossible. Our companies can't find enough skilled manpower, where will the Japanese companies get welders, fitters, CNC machinists, electricians, tool operators and the like? And how about our killer labor laws? Even without this situation, India would eventually have become a destination due to increasing Chinese costs of labor but nobody is looking at India now. It is highly likely that places like Myanmar and Vietnam will step into this void before we can figure out what happened.

[sanjaykumar]

China’s response to foreign aircraft in the new zone would depend on “how big the threat” was, the spokesman said.


To put it in American 'I double dare ya'

[Victor]

^More like unkil saying "Go ahead punk, make my day".

[member_23360]

everybody is thinking that its china, who is taking the initiative. but its actually US which is trying to encircle china.

china is trying to break it (very idiotically), but only time will tell who will be successful.

There is almost no possibility of a big conflict, if it happens, it will be a huge setback for China.

India can hugely benefit from this, provided a good leadership at center(which is highly unlikely )

[sanjaykumar]

Yes perhaps there should be border creep in Ladakh, immediate onset.

[NRao]

Nov 28, 2013 :: Japan to expand air zone in light of China's ADIZ: report

B-52s send warning to both China and Japan: former US official

Beijing willing to go to war over East China Sea: Japanese scholar

Chinese aircraft carrier expands capabilities

Another important first during the cruise was the disassembly and assembly of jet engines aboard the ship. Jet engine maintenance is a crucial element of maintaining an effective carrier air wing. US aircraft carriers have extensive facilities for engine maintenance.

A major advantage of US Navy carriers is their ability to receive jet engines aboard Northrop Grumman C-2 Greyhound carrier onboard delivery (COD) aircraft. Aircraft such as the C-2, however, require a catapult to launch from a carrier, which precludes their use aboard carriers such as the Liaoning that use a ramp.

[DavidD]

everybody is thinking that its china, who is taking the initiative. but its actually US which is trying to encircle china.

china is trying to break it (very idiotically), but only time will tell who will be successful.

There is almost no possibility of a big conflict, if it happens, it will be a huge setback for China.

India can hugely benefit from this, provided a good leadership at center(which is highly unlikely )

True on all accounts, except I happen to think that China is not doing so idiotically. Check out the Chinese ADIZ vs. the Japanese one and everyone can see who exactly is the aggressor.



There is, as you said, almost no possibility of a big conflict. It will not only be a huge setback for China, Japan's own economy is at a critical juncture and everything may crumble down should a conflict occurs.

[rajrang]

http://www.ibtimes.com/china-engage-six ... nt-chinese

Another Chinese wet dream!

Sounds like German planning during WWII

[PrasadZ]

Japan and South Korea defy China air zone rules

Japanese officials did not specify when the flights happened, but confirmed the surveillance activity.

"Even since China has created this airspace defence zone, we have continued our surveillance activities as before in the East China Sea, including in the zone," said Japan's top government spokesman, Yoshihide Suga.

"We are not going to change this [activity] out of consideration to China," he added.

For their part, South Korea's military said one of their planes entered the zone on Tuesday.

South Korea's Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se said on Wednesday that the air zone issue had made "already tricky regional situations even more difficult to deal with".

Cant escalate and cant back down - so, whats the plan, really?!!

[member_27808]

True on all accounts, except I happen to think that China is not doing so idiotically. Check out the Chinese ADIZ vs. the Japanese one and everyone can see who exactly is the aggressor.





Has the map been verified especially vis a vie the Japanese ADIZ zone showed. After all I note the source!

[Singha]

i hope you shale oil fans are aware of how its actually extracted from tar sands by a process thats akin to devastating strip mining.
north dakota boom is recent, its been ongoing in athabasca in alberta canada for decades. I saw a pgm on it recently. place looked like remains of some old ussr or czech republic heavy industry area that had ripped the place clean.

its not much in public eye because nobody cares what happens in remote corners like north dakota or northern canada..would be interesting if shale oil were found in maryland or california

[TSJones]

The US has given notice to all US airlines to take precautions due to possible hostiltiy in the zone.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013 ... a-sea?lite

[Singha]

and stopped short of saying they should notify PLA ADIZ ATC of their flight plans. japan has already said its commercial airlines will not follow the new set of 'rules' and just go on as usual. its a game of dare.....the cheen are unlikely to meddle with a commercial flight and mil planes can fire back or escape if needed.

next step in ladder is if PLANAF intercepts a JAL 747 and forces it to land in mainland china for violating the rules.

[TSJones]

i hope you shale oil fans are aware of how its actually extracted from tar sands by a process thats akin to devastating strip mining.
north dakota boom is recent, its been ongoing in athabasca in alberta canada for decades. I saw a pgm on it recently. place looked like remains of some old ussr or czech republic heavy industry area that had ripped the place clean.

its not much in public eye because nobody cares what happens in remote corners like north dakota or northern canada..would be interesting if shale oil were found in maryland or california

There is a difference between "fracking" oil shale and strip mining tar sands. They are fracking oil shale in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas right now as well as North Dakota.

[Aditya_V]

and stopped short of saying they should notify PLA ADIZ ATC of their flight plans. japan has already said its commercial airlines will not follow the new set of 'rules' and just go on as usual. its a game of dare.....the cheen are unlikely to meddle with a commercial flight and mil planes can fire back or escape if needed.

next step in ladder is if PLANAF intercepts a JAL 747 and forces it to land in mainland china for violating the rules.

MY only hope is that in this game, a civilian airliner does not get shot down like it happened over Kamchataka in the early80's where a Soviet Su-15 shot down a Korean Airlines 747.

That would be tragic and taken this game too far. Pray to god.

[Singha]

one cannot underestimate the sometimes wayward nature of the local PLANAF/PLAAF commanders as seen in the P8 incident.
beijing not desiring it doesnt meant it wont happen.

[JE Menon]

Clearly something strange is going on within the Chinese leadership. Or at least I hope so, because if this is how China behaves under coherent and unified leadership, there's a problem on everybody's hands.

[raj-ji]

Time for us to step up and offer the Japanese incentives to move more manufacturing to India. That will kick the Panda in the pants in more than one way.

This is going to be near impossible. Our companies can't find enough skilled manpower, where will the Japanese companies get welders, fitters, CNC machinists, electricians, tool operators and the like? And how about our killer labor laws? Even without this situation, India would eventually have become a destination due to increasing Chinese costs of labor but nobody is looking at India now. It is highly likely that places like Myanmar and Vietnam will step into this void before we can figure out what happened.

Special economic zones can get around the killer labour laws. And I know there was some discussion on this with the Japs and others. Skilled labor is less of a concern given the sheer size of our population. There may be some ramping up needed but with a special economic zone(s) this is possible. Just have to move on it.

The Japs will be cautious about moving facilities to countries that are not close allies after this mess with the Panda. So Myanmar and Vietnam may not be so attractive now. In Asia the only country I can think of with the labor capacity, costs and skill to absorb huge manufacturing facilities after the Pandas are us. Add to it, of the Japanese allies we are the ones with the lowest labour costs and this becomes possible. Plus we are a known entity, the Japanese have been doing business with us for a long while.

[Lalmohan]

in the KAL shootdown, there was speculation that one of unkil's elint assets was shadowing the KAL airliner into soviet airspace and managed to evade just in time

[raj-ji]

Clearly something strange is going on within the Chinese leadership. Or at least I hope so, because if this is how China behaves under coherent and unified leadership, there's a problem on everybody's hands.

The Panda's new leaders are flexing their muscles, showing their own they are tough. Sign of things to come.

They are playing into the hands of their enemies. This is only good for us.

[NRao]

China sends warplanes to newly declared air zone

China's state news agency Xinhua quoted air force spokesman Col Shen Jinke as saying several fighter jets and an early warning aircraft had been deployed to carry out routine patrols as "a defensive measure and in line with international common practices".

[DavidD]

Has the map been verified especially vis a vie the Japanese ADIZ zone showed. After all I note the source!

It's public information, you can check it out for yourself. I hope people understand that ADIZ is not a NFZ. Every country has a ADIZ one and nobody respects it. Just a a week or two ago the Russians sent a few bombers into the Japanese ADIZ, for example. In a couple of years, nobody will be talking about this, and the status quo would've changed ever so slightly.

[NRao]

China sends aircraft to patrol air defence identification zone

China sent several aircraft to patrol its air defence identification zone yesterday and said such missions would become regular events, raising tensions with countries that refuse to recognise the zone.

Air force spokesman Colonel Shen Jinke said China sent a KJ-2000 early warning aircraft and several Sukhoi Su-30 and J-11 jet fighters into the zone.

[Austin]

China’s Space Program Is Taking Off