India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

[Singha]

assuming you are talking of a2a vs the J-20 family and assuming it is going to be a long range a2a fighter in some form later, why is the the Pakfa not a more effective counter ?

JSF does not have much to recommend for itself in the a2a regime once people get around its sensors and merge the fight. something like the old block15 F-16 or the F-15C will run rings around it probably.

I am sure both EF or Rafale can spare us say 6 planes for interim training and familiarization of ground staff once a deal is inked.

[shiv]

It would be tragic if we tied up a large chunk of our defence aviation industry for the next 30-40 years to yesterday's technology instead of aspiring to the highest standard available to us.

This is a problem sentence. It sets the stage or what is to be said later.

You have forgotten why the MMRCA requirement exists. It does not exist to "aspire for tomorrow's tech". It exists only to quickly get today's tech in place to meet the force level requirements of the IAF which are falling to new lows as we still have not managed to get yesterdays technology in place.

Once you ignore a basic fact, anything can be stated with confidence.

[rajanb]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 613429.cms

Now, battle-lines for the Europe versus France contest, after elimination of US and Russia in earlier rounds, have been clearly drawn. India on Friday opened the financial bids of the two fighters left in the fray for the world's biggest combat aircraft deal, but promptly declared it would take at least two-three weeks to declare the eventual winner since tons of data had to be computed. (May the IAF gets the best a/c it deems fit. The MMRCA was meant to replace the older inventory in the IAF which needs to be retired and not be a J20 counter. That would fit into the IAF's strategy of the a/c mix they would have to take care of neighbouring threats. Shiv has expounded that very aptly.)

For all its promises of "full transparency" in the medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) contract to acquire 126 fighters, likely to be the single biggest defence deal in the run-up to the 2014 polls with its overall value set to exceed $20 billion, the defence ministry refused to say anything concrete. (The talk of 15% difference in price obviating the L1 concept is fallacious. Politically and economically 15% of the overall deal, including life cycle costs can be attacked and term this as being a dubious deal. If we assume $20B the 15% is good pocket money for someone!)

Sources, however, said the "unit flyaway cost" or "direct acquisition cost" of each Eurofighter Typhoon was "higher" than the French Rafale fighter, both of which fall in the $80-$110 million bracket, much costlier than the American, Russian and Swedish jets earlier eliminated after exhaustive technical evaluation by IAF pilots.

But the unit flyaway cost will not be the only factor to determine the lowest bidder (L-1). The MoD will also take into account "life-cycle costs" or the cost of operating the fighters over a 40-year period, with 6,000 hours of flying.

Besides, there are costs of the transfer of technology (ToT) since the first 18 jets will be bought from abroad in a flyaway condition, while the rest 108 will be manufactured in India, under licence, by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

"The bids were opened today in front of the Indian contract negotiating committee, comprising MoD, IAF, finance, production and quality assurance officials, as well as representatives from French Dassault and EADS (backed by UK, Germany, Spain and Italy). It will take a few weeks to examine and evaluate their commercial proposals to arrive at a verifiable cost model to determine the L-1," said an official.

IAF wants the actual contract to be inked by January-February to ensure the delivery of first 18 jets begins by early-2015 to stem its fast-eroding combat edge, with HAL beginning the manufacturing of the rest 108 from early-2017 onwards. "The first jet built by HAL should roll out in early-2017," said an official. ( I would agree with Singha here that both bidders would comply by imparting training to our AF as soon as they possible can, and also provide 18 a/c as an interim stop gap so as to get the IAF to achieve FOC and as much experience in the shortest possible timeframe.)

India is also likely to go in for another 63 fighters after the first 126, if the timelines for the under-development Tejas LCA (light combat aircraft) and the stealth Indo-Russian FGFA (fifth-generation fighter aircraft) projects are not met.

What I am reading here is the difference in cost is minimal? Is that something being spread by interested parties? Or it could be the MoD itself "leaking" that so they do not face undue external pressure form influential groups to colour the choice.

If MMS could not meet Sarkozy, no big deal. Cannot be read as a negative for the Rafale!

I would be surprised if the Finance guys have not prepared a detailed spreadsheet which takes into consideration MTBF and the attendant costs of replacement/repair over the duration of the life cycle!

[AmitG]

We have been talking about JSF killing AMCA. But as far as I know, AMCA is still a plane on paper. We are still talking about FOC for LCA Mk-1 and LCA Mk-2 is still in the pipeline. We have imported AJTs and also are looking for importing basic trainers. Our indigenous efforts at developing the Kaveri engine have still not borne fruits. We needed an external consultant. And on top of this, the red-tapism and slow moving procurement process puts the nation's security at risk. MMRCA is an example of that.

Totally agree with you. AMCA is a proposal. It will take atleast 10 years for it to fly. We cannot compare F-35 with AMCA

I also do not understand that if we will reject both Rafale and Typhoon because of the price, then what was the need of going through such an elaborate process. I sincerely hope that MoD selects one of them after such a gruelling long procurement process.

We reject Rafale and EFT for one reason alone. Their inability to give us overwhelming advantage over the Chinese fighters over Tibet and East Turkestan and also over the Chinese air-defense systems. We only have one fighter that can prevail over both of these systems currently SU-30MKI. Pit the capabilities of F-35 against, Rafale or EFT or Su-27 or J-10 or any current plane in Chinese inventory. I am purposefully keeping J-20 out of the equation as there are too many variables.

There is also another reason why we should reject EFT and Rafale. We are competing with the Chinese quantity with quality. That is where F-35 wins hands down.

On other hand,aircraft design and development is a very complex process. We have also not followed the Chinese short-cuts of reverse engineering.

I believe what we are good at is - Avionics, software, possibly Radar and aircraft assembly. In my opinion (and I am a newbie here), a better option would have been to work with a partner say US, take one of their aircrafts as base, fit in our own avionics, software, spend efforts on developing an AESA radar and then manufacture a large number of such aircrafts. Su-30MKI is a very good example of this. And then enhance the aircraft further. Why not take an F-16 and fit it to our requirements. Such aircraft may not be exported to other countries in order to keep the partner countries interests.

F-16 & F/A-18 SH are all 4th generation fighters. With due respect to Hi-Lo mix, I simply fail to comprehend the fascination with the 4th generation fighters. To me it almost seems that we are hell bent on fighting yesterdays war, i.e. war with Pakistan, instead of preparing for the wars of future, i.e. with China. Against Pakistan EFT and Typhoon make sense. I am not too convinced that against Chinese any of these fighter makes sense. Rather spend the same amount of money on AMCA or creating a 5th generation LCA.

I think that stealth aircrafts are more as a deterrent than strategic advantage in the case here. A F-22 or for that matter F-117/B-2 aircraft gives advantage when the enemy doesn't possess an equivalent aircraft. If say both India and China possess stealthy aircrafts, then where is the advantage. Our FGFA/AMCA will fly blind to J-20 and the same is true for J-20 as well. In my opinion, the counter to stealth is not stealth but investing in technology that will detect stealthy aircrafts. There have been posts on this forum which state that an F-22 can be overwhelmed by hordes of aircrafts like Su-30. Also from a maintenance perspective, maintaining a F-22 or F-35 could be prohibitively expensive. Even US decided to restrict numbers to 187 or so for F-22. I believe that we can dominate the skies (in a conflict) only through numbers and that is why an F-16 or F/A-18 SH makes a lot more sense. Both aircrafts have seen combat esp F-16. With brand new airframes, new engines, avionics, AESA radar and armaments, an F-16 can be deadly and more so if there are huge numbers.


Edit: My apologies if I posted on a subject other than EF/Rafale. But given the context that F-35 has been offered, I wanted to put up my opinions on stealth.

[GeorgeWelch]

Bids open for fighter aircraft, likely to be a political call

While the value of the contract was pegged at US $10 billion when the tender was floated in 2007, this is expected to almost double, given inflation and currency variations, besides plans to increase the order by 63 more fighters to meet deficiencies in the fighter fleet.

. . .

While the French Rafale came out to be slightly cheaper than the European Consortium’s Eurofighter in terms of ‘fly away cost’ per unit, as expected, the difference was less than 5 per cent. This throws the competition open.

. . .

the narrow difference between the fly away costs will give Indian decision-makers the leeway to make a political decision on the purchase.

. . .

A final call on the winner will of course be made by the Cabinet Committee on Security, that will have the discretion of taking political, strategic and financial considerations into account.

[Kartik]

It would be tragic if we tied up a large chunk of our defence aviation industry for the next 30-40 years to yesterday's technology instead of aspiring to the highest standard available to us.

This is a problem sentence. It sets the stage or what is to be said later.

You have forgotten why the MMRCA requirement exists. It does not exist to "aspire for tomorrow's tech". It exists only to quickly get today's tech in place to meet the force level requirements of the IAF which are falling to new lows as we still have not managed to get yesterdays technology in place.

Once you ignore a basic fact, anything can be stated with confidence.

couldn't have put it better. Its amazing that with this F-35 carrot dangled in front of us (and it is that- just a carrot), some of our BRFites are forgetting just how bad the numbers and technology situation is TODAY and will be till the MRCA arrives and the Su-30MKIs are inducted in full numbers (which isn't going to be till 2017). With all MiG-21s due to retire shortly except for the Bisons, the numbers are only going to drop further.

There is no way on earth that the US will allow India to set up a dedicated F-35 assembly line here itself that will eventually manufacture them from raw material phase itself. At best there will be transfer of some technology and source codes, but never to the level to which any of the MRCA companies would be willing to give. So that is one fundamental aspect of the MRCA that we will get next to nothing from going with the F-35.

Funny thing is, we had many posters ask why the F-35 was not looked, at even as far as a year ago- and it was brushed aside, citing the huge issues the F-35 has had in staying on cost and on schedule..what has changed since then? I don't recall this level of panic on BRF back then..the J-20's emergence has suddenly made everything else that isn't designed with some level of stealth obsolete? Why then is the PLAAF itself expending resources on the J-10B and J-11B as well as the J-15 instead of just pouring more resources into the J-20 and getting multiple variants of that into service asap ?

[GeorgeWelch]

JSF does not have much to recommend for itself in the a2a regime once people get around its sensors and merge the fight. something like the old block15 F-16 or the F-15C will run rings around it probably.

Completely false. It performs like a clean F-16 while carrying a combat load. No F-16 ever fights clean . . .

You have forgotten why the MMRCA requirement exists. It does not exist to "aspire for tomorrow's tech". It exists only to quickly get today's tech in place to meet the force level requirements of the IAF which are falling to new lows as we still have not managed to get yesterdays technology in place.

Then why not go with the SH which is ready sooner and cheaper? Why spend so much on what is basically a stopgap solution?

And let's be honest, availability for the F-35 isn't THAT far behind the EF and Rafale.

[Kartik]

JSF does not have much to recommend for itself in the a2a regime once people get around its sensors and merge the fight. something like the old block15 F-16 or the F-15C will run rings around it probably.

Completely false. It performs like a clean F-16 while carrying a combat load. No F-16 ever fights clean . . .

You have forgotten why the MMRCA requirement exists. It does not exist to "aspire for tomorrow's tech". It exists only to quickly get today's tech in place to meet the force level requirements of the IAF which are falling to new lows as we still have not managed to get yesterdays technology in place.

Then why not go with the SH which is ready sooner and cheaper? Why spend so much on what is basically a stopgap solution?

And let's be honest, availability for the F-35 isn't THAT far behind the EF and Rafale.

Boss, no offence but stop peddling the Super Hornet here now. Its history as far as the MRCA and India are concerned. Boeing gets it, why don't you ?

[GeorgeWelch]

Boss, no offence but stop peddling the Super Hornet here now.

I'm not peddling the SH, I'm pointing out the flaw in the argument that was presented. If IMMEDIATE availability was so important, they would have gone for the SH. If they're willing to wait a little for EF/Rafale, why not wait a little more and get a truly substantial leap in capability?

[AmitG]

Boss, no offence but stop peddling the Super Hornet here now.

I'm not peddling the SH, I'm pointing out the flaw in the argument that was presented. If IMMEDIATE availability was so important, they would have gone for the SH. If they're willing to wait a little for EF/Rafale, why not wait a little more and get a truly substantial leap in capability?

Let us also respect the fact that the Indian Air Force conducted gruelling tests and finally came up with Rafale/EFT as the top two priorities. They are the end users and have been entrusted with the security of the nation. They have chosen what they felt was right for their needs (long term/short term..whatever).

But I have had one doubt/question...if Libya had S-300 batteries, would the Rafale/EFT been able to dominate Libyan airspace so easily? The reason why I have this question is because a lot of people say that Rafale and EFT have proven their A2A and A2G capabilities...but against what? SA-3s?

[GeorgeWelch]

Let us also respect the fact that the Indian Air Force conducted gruelling tests and finally came up with Rafale/EFT as the top two priorities. They are the end users and have been entrusted with the security of the nation. They have chosen what they felt was right for their needs (long term/short term..whatever).

They chose what they felt was right FROM AMONG THE SIX CONTESTANTS. They weren't comparing against the F-35 at all.

And the point remains that if they are willing to wait for them (especially the EF), then the IMMEDIATE need can't be so dire as some here are saying.

[Kashi]

They chose what they felt was right FROM AMONG THE SIX CONTESTANTS. They weren't comparing against the F-35 at all.

And whose fault is that?

This has been done to death, but nothing stopped LM from pitching in F-35 as a separate option instead of bumming it with the purchase of F-16s- yes we have all heard the excuses about the timescale and all.

Did the US government and LM in particular actually believe that the IAF would pick up an obsolete single-engine craft, which Pakis have been flying for nearly 30 years?

Or was it a mere ruse by as Frederick Forsyth so eloquently put it in the Fist of God
"putting up a request that the [IAF/GOI] could not fulfill, then move on to the real matter at hand. The theory was that the [IAF/GOI], stumped by the first request, would be more amenable for his own self-respect to agreeing to the second.
to push through the sales of P8I, C-130J, C-17 among others?

Looks pretty obvioous doesn't it?

[Singha]

livefist.

The Eurofighter team at the bid opening was led by EADS Cassidian CEO Dr. Stefan Zoller, while the Rafale team was led by Dassault Aviation Vice President Alain Remaudière.

While nothing is clear just yet, sources suggest that it's going to be tight: while it will take a few weeks to arrive at a common denomination (also currency conversions apparently -- one of the bids had values in at least three currencies), sources indicate that the apparent difference between the two offers is thin, not as much as had been widely predicted (India's Mint business daily quotes a source with "direct knowledge of the matter" that Dassault's bid was "marginally lower" on unit cost compared to Eurofighter's). There is, however, no official clarity on the bids, and there is unlikely to be any before a lowest bidder is made known next month. The MoD will presumably announce the lowest bidder officially.

Clearly, it's also a time ripe for reading into everything. The Pioneer newspaper suggests that a meeting between the Indian Prime Minister and French President in Cannes on the sidelines of the ongoing G20 summit, inexplicably cancelled at the last minute, suggested that France had lost the competition.

[Singha]

my interpretation of the cancelled meeting could sarkozy sir too busy with european bank crisis, or the indian side didnt want a high pressure sales session with him. if rafale bid is higher how would the french even now at present with bids not public.

[GeorgeWelch]

They chose what they felt was right FROM AMONG THE SIX CONTESTANTS. They weren't comparing against the F-35 at all.

And whose fault is that?

Whoever set the rules for the MRCA competition.

The F-35 couldn't meet the specified deadline so wasn't offered.

nothing stopped LM from pitching in F-35 as a separate option instead of bumming it with the purchase of F-16s

Except for the fact that it didn't meet the stated requirements of the MRCA competition.

yes we have all heard the excuses about the timescale and all.

If Lockheed had submitted the F-35 and won, the competition would protested (justly) that it didn't meet the stated bid requirements.

[SanjibGhosh]

hmm ... Fly away cost diff is less than 5% ... then Eurofighter most likely ...

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/bids- ... ../871143/

While the French Rafale came out to be slightly cheaper than the European Consortium’s Eurofighter in terms of ‘fly away cost’ per unit, as expected, the difference was less than 5 per cent. This throws the competition open

[Kashi]

Except for the fact that it didn't meet the stated requirements of the MRCA competition.

As things currently stand, tt still doesn't. The MRCA contenders went through extensive and gruelling trials in different conditions, which took a substantial amount of time.

It will take no les time to put F-35 through the same loops that other MRCA contenders had to go through, which means that by the time the FMS agreements including offsets are hammered out, it may as well be too late.

Most importantly, there's the question of a host of retrogade agreements that the US requires before the IAF starts using their systems. There's no clarity on the extent of ToT, but it would be safe to assume that it would in no measure exceed what's being offered by the Europeans.

[Singha]

well um but since its generally agreed that EF needs more investment to be omni-role, even if the costs were ==, the EF might end up needing more money. I certainly do not see germany , italy or spain lining up to spend hard earned $$ on EF anytime soon....its UK vs France now.

[krishnan]

Actually EF winning might boost its sale, with Italy and all getting it cheaper

[GopiD]

Friends,

Seriously the sale pitch for F-35 is sickening to watch. And the dhoti shivering SDREs who have had their dhotis blown away by the J-20 dragon should remember that the MMRCA doesn't compete with the J-20.

Let us put things in perspective. We should all remind us that the stage-managed pics of behind-the-bush J-20 were published fairly recently. Comaritively the PAK-FA project has been going on for almost 10 years now since the Sukhoi was chosen to lead the design in 2002 and has completed 100 flights until 2 days ago. Also, we don't have any public info on the J-20s performance, but we are all well informed of the expected performance characteristics of FGFA/PAK-FA which is almost equal to an F22. When inducted, our FGFA would be a far more capable aircraft than a J-20 or anything else in the world, maybe other than the F22.

When compared to the chinese, Ruskies are better designers and manufacturers. I would bet on the quality and versatility of the PAK-FA any day compared to the bad cloning workshop job by the chinese whose products are better only for the photo-ops.

The MMRCA fighters would be directly competing with J10s and J11 series wherein our PAK-FA would be first to enter the battle stealthily and finish off the J-20s or anything else they can throw at us in the initial stages of the shooting match.

So lets all remember that our PAK-FA/FGFA will be the direct answer to J-20s or any other stealth fighter of the chinese origin and we are moving swiftly in that direction with the 100th flight. I just wonder why there isn't any hurrah from many BRFites when the PAK-FA reaches some real milestones and there is so much fear by just few nasty pics of J-20 (maybe the chinese have taught us really strong lessons on how to fear). (I can understand PAK-FA is not an indian product, but it sure is being developed for india's defense too and in my opinion we should all cheer for whatever small steps are being taken for Indian defense, especially the milestones of PAK-FA).

I had read somewhere that the IAF is hoping for the FGFA to be inducted in 2018 timeframe and we all know that the J-20 is not going to see the light before that timeframe. It's not like the J-20 is going to be inducted tomorrow morning and we are going to start a fighter maybe a day later.

Lets remember the following...

INDIAN FGFA/PAK-FA >/= J-20
MMRCA > J10, J11 etc

Please don't forget the SU30-MKI

From the above, we can all see that IAF will be a far more capable force than the chinese when these plans materialize.

Hope this post helps.....

[Taygibay]

The MRCA contenders went through extensive and gruelling trials in different conditions, which took a substantial amount of time.

It will take no les time to put F-35 through the same loops that other MRCA contenders had to go through, which means that by the time the FMS agreements including offsets are hammered out, it may as well be too late.

Very right Kashi and the Lightning II should wait before undertaking such trials :

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... shap’.html

where one reads :

plans to start unmonitored flight training on the Air Force variant of the JSF this fall "risks the occurrence of a serious mishap,"

[SaiK]

My interpretation of SH is old technology or old frame for the near current technology. SH just managed to survive because of upgrades. Whereas the real current technologies are Rf and Ef. Now, JSF may be current in 10 years from now, which is when IAF will start realizing these puppies. But hey, can't wait that long now. IAF needed them 10 years ago, and SH would have been favorite then - where was JSF, Rf or Ef then?

I think IN will look at JSF-35B with VTOL ops for ADS. I am sure India will buy couple of squadrons of the 35b variant in the near future [aka 10 years from now]. Harriers need replacements and there is nothing in the world today, that could beat JSFb. If the yankees are interested, they should make sure they offer IN rather IAF now.

[Cain Marko]

IMO, we don't have the luxury of speculating about how inferior the J-20 will be, how few will be built, how many will be given to the pakis or ranged against us. Given that we are the only real chinese rivals in Asia and they have shown nothing but ill-will towards us, it is prudent to be prepared for the worst as we build a bridge to the FGFA/AMCA which may or may not come. It is irresponsible and foolhardy bravado to dismiss this as "dhoti shivering".

Well, like I said before some dhoti shiver is a good thing. And everyone indulges in a bit of drama so that perhaps a few important pieces of hardware are purchased. No harm there. And yes, since we simply don't know whether the J20 is a zero potential vapor product or not, it is better to err on the side of caution and be prepared. IN CASE, the chinese get it right, an excellent stealth a/c could be a game changer in many ways.

However, there is more than one way to prepare for this eventuality - uber fighters (5 gen) AND uber SAM coverage. If the 5 gen is still a fair piece away, $$s could be invested in getting extensive radar/SAM coverage along possible Chinese ingress routes.

Freaky shit! Scrap the crap, buy available 1 sqd each of M2ks/MiG-29s/MKI at 25% of this price, upgrade entire MKI fleet with an uber upgrade, make the LCA happen, and put some extra $$s to get an early Pakfa. Set up JV for AMCA. They'll still have $$s left over to buy some force multipliers like AWACS, a few more Phalcons wouldn't hurt.

CM

Ok if the MRCA is scrapped, how much time do you think each individual thing you are suggesting will take?

Ideally, definitely NOT any longer than the acquisition and induction of the MRCA, which will start coming after 2015. If instead of the MRCA, a decision for the other fighters is made in the same fiscal year, I don't see why there should be an issue. The whole point is that the MRCA induction numbers timeline can be matched with other alternatives, and probably beaten too. Between an extra sqd of MKI, possible Mig-29/Mirage2000 purchases, LCA IIs and Pakfa, the same numbers can be achieved, and if planned well, exceeded.

How much time for the IAF to identify MiG-29s, Mirages (if they are available that is) and acquire them considering the glacial speed of all our acquisition programs?

Well obviously it would depend upon availability, but for sure the Qataris were interested - and there are indications that the UAE might well be interested. The HuAF 29s are already on sale. Hell, additional MKIs can be gotten straight from Irkut - they deliver pretty fast. Possibly even MiG-29K/Ms. Yes, acquisition pace is certainly glacial HOWEVER, in case of dire need, things can be speeded up - e.g. MKIs, T90s, C17, C130. And if the MRCA circus ends, I believe, the need will indeed be dire. IOWs, pants will be on fire, and there will be need for guns on hire. I don't see why a decision can't be made to buy 20 MKI in the next 6 months. If in that time the HuAF fulcrums are found inadequate, an order for 20 MiG-29K/M can be placed - to be delivered by 2016. In the meanwhile negotiations with Qatar/UAE/Fra might yield some results for some M2k-5s as well. All of a sudden 50-60 odd a/c by 2016 does not seem that impossible. At the same time, the LCA induction process should be accelerated, esp. the productionizing issue.

What guarantee that those will not be costlier than what they should be?

Bizarre question, what "should" be the cost of any acquisition? what is the guarantee that the MRCA is not costlier than it should be?

What weapons to acquire for them?

First, there are already weapons in stock that can be used. SEcond, more weapons can be acquired as deemed necessary - the supply chain already exists for Russian h/w. And the Mirages to some extent will also offer commonality. Even for Israeli h/w there is an existing inventory. So where is the problem?. Seriously, weapons issues are greater with the MRCA - they need an entirely new type and line of weapons, induction will necessarily require more time. Btw, I think Qatar will sell its M2k arsenal, can't imagine what they'd to with those weapons without a platform.

Will they be as effective as the Rafale or Typhoon and their weapons like the Meteor, Brimstone, AASM or Storm Shadow/Scalps?

ARen't M2ks qualified for AASM, or Scalp? So that takes care of two of your "must have" weapons. The only one remaining is the Meteor. There is a v.distinct possibility that a) either the Russian counterpart will be available with the MKI upg., OR b) the Astra shall be available. In any case, not unlike any other weapon seen in a stand alone perspective, the Meteor is no magic bullet, plus we really don't know when it will be available for the MRCA.

How much time will these deals take?

Much would depends upon the urgency felt behind them ?

Even the most optimistic person will not be able to suggest that 6 squadrons of second hand MiG-29s or Mirages will be ready to be inducted by 2014 or even 2015, since they will need suitable upgrades to be even fit to be considered. Our own Mirage upgrade is constrained by some factors to just 10 per year after the technology has been absorbed. So at best you'd get 40-50 Mirages from the Adl'A only starting from 2013 or so at 10 per year..hardly a great solace for the IAF.

Bringing in 3 sqds of a/c might be possible if the AF already has experience with them. I don't see why inducting 12 M2ks + 20 MiG-29 + 20 MKIs will be a problem over a period of 3 years. Only issue will be getting pilots ready, but this can be overcome. After all the IAF does plan to induct 8-10 LCA + 14MKI + 10 MRCA starting 2015. Don't see an issue.

And even after spending that much on those, you'll get trivial offsets or technology gains

.
Ya, but you'll be spending a pittance to stem the tide - this becomes necessary at times. If it is numbers that are needed, then the above can be an option. What offsets did IAF get via the last MKI deal? But the deal went through.

Apart from which you'll have much higher maintenance requirements with any older bird (and guaranteed higher attrition rates), even if its service life has been extended by another 1000 or 1500 hours (which'll give it another 10-15 years at best).

POssibly - but 20 new MKI should not be an issue. Qatari M2ks are rather newish. Only HuAF MiG-29s might be an issue, but these will more than make up for it with a low price. There is also the option of getting MiG to produce 20 odd brand new SMTs/Ks/Ms by 2016, a little delayed but then your above stated issue will be mitigated.

It may seem cost-effective but that option was only feasible as an additional measure to the MRCA- not as a replacement program for the MRCA.

It is clearly a more cost effective solution. The idea is to just manage to get in as many as you can take for the next 3-4 odd years. Thereafter, the Pakfa and LCA line should start kicking in.

Now, you'll spend a great deal on fighters that will not be as capable as the Rafale or Typhoon, which will not be able to carry the newer gen weapons without us paying for integration (and that doesn't happen soon either) and may likely not be able to employ them either..and which will bring no gain to the Indian defence firms technology wise.

Not completely accurate. M2k-5s will carry much of what Rafale can carry. And the MiG-29/Su-30 will carry russian equivalents. Capability difference is 4.25 vs. 4.5 gen perhaps, no more, at least not in the case of additional MKI.

The MKI can only be upgraded to what it is being upgraded.

Pure speculation based on too many unknown quantities - for starters, what are the MKIs being upgraded to? Bars II? Irbis? AESA? Are L-band arrays a part of it? Newer engines?

There are limits to what can be put on that frame given existing technology.

There is only one clear limit and that is stealth, and here too there is plenty of achievement that allows the Su-35 to compete rather well vs. Eurocanards.

And even those upgrades will not happen any faster than they are currently happening. When they do happen, a substantial portion of our fleet will be grounded, undergoing upgrades which will further reduce our fleet of 4th generation fighters.

yes, but this is inescapable whether with MRCA or not.

And how much more should the IAF spend on the MKIs? They're be around only 10-12 years old on an average when they'll go through the current Super-30 upgrades! By the time they are approaching the fag end of their lives, they'll probably undergo another upgrade as well..all in all, we'd have spent a very substantial amount on them considering that the MKI licence produced in India isn't that cheap either.

Spend whatever it takes to keep the edge and as long as it takes. Rest assured, it will be cheaper than the obscene MrCA numbers being quoted, and God help us when these Ecanards need MLUs. Just thinking of the M2k makes one shudder.

Every single suggestion you are making will take its own sweet time, that too if it is even feasible.

Like I said, not necessarily. Things can and have been sped up before. Inducting a/c with which the AF already has a solid amount of experience should be a lot easier than an altogether new bird.

And till then the IAF will basically have to keep its fingers crossed that the Su-30MKI fleet shouldn't be grounded under any circumstance since most people here are terrified that even the AESA equipped 4th gen MRCA cannot hold its own against PLAAF fighters, so what to say of our Bison fleet or the older MiGs and the earlier Jaguar DARIN Is and IIs ? Which is absurd- they've not overnight become obsolete, not at least in the sub-continental scenario where our western neighbour has just retired A-5 Fantans and still operates some of the oldest Mirages and our eastern neighbour too has their own share of older gen jets..

I think you are taking Victor's or other member's opinions to an extreme here...nobody is saying it'll happen overnight, only that in the likely event when it does happen, the current MRCA candidates won't exactly be competitive. It burns all the more thanks to their high prices.

the AMCA's feasibility study is going to be completed by 2011. Even by optimistic timelines, it won't see first flight till the later part of this decade (PS Subra states 2020 as the goal) and induction won't happen till 2025. So while I'm all for backing it to the hilt and roping in the MRCA winner as a partner, I'm not at all for scrapping this deal. It is just not practical and will leave the IAF far too vulnerable for the rest of this decade.

[/quote]
Even if the AMCA comes in circa 2025-30, it does not really matter. They should be able to manage quite well with MKIs, Pakfa, LCA, MiG-29/M2k/Jags until then. I think this MRCA deal has been one of the most impractical deals ever. If the only reason for sticking to it is because, "oh they have already spent soo much time in this circus, let it happen, at least the IAF will get something", then I seriously feel it should be rethought although I see the logic behind it. But not v.convincing imvho.

CM.

[Cain Marko]

Re. the JSF. It is unfortunate that the US could not get it in this race, obviously it was not ready. But the real mistake lies imho, in NOT getting the Silent Hornet ready for trials. If Saab could have an NG ready for demo, I can't imagine why Boeing could not get a Shornet with the 25K lbf thrust engines, and RCS reduction ready for IAF trials.

Lost a golden opportunity there - showing the mockup in Aero India was really pathetic - reflects the gap in US-India thinking. The US ought to have known that the IAF is v.professional, and offering it something like the blk60 or existing shornet vs. souped up Ecanards would be in poor taste. Probly smacked of Master-poodle attitude to the decision makers.

CM

[shiv]

couldn't have put it better. Its amazing that with this F-35 carrot dangled in front of us (and it is that- just a carrot), some of our BRFites are forgetting just how bad the numbers and technology situation is TODAY and will be till the MRCA arrives and the Su-30MKIs are inducted in full numbers (which isn't going to be till 2017). With all MiG-21s due to retire shortly except for the Bisons, the numbers are only going to drop further.

There is no way on earth that the US will allow India to set up a dedicated F-35 assembly line here itself that will eventually manufacture them from raw material phase itself. At best there will be transfer of some technology and source codes, but never to the level to which any of the MRCA companies would be willing to give. So that is one fundamental aspect of the MRCA that we will get next to nothing from going with the F-35.

Funny thing is, we had many posters ask why the F-35 was not looked, at even as far as a year ago- and it was brushed aside, citing the huge issues the F-35 has had in staying on cost and on schedule..what has changed since then? I don't recall this level of panic on BRF back then..the J-20's emergence has suddenly made everything else that isn't designed with some level of stealth obsolete? Why then is the PLAAF itself expending resources on the J-10B and J-11B as well as the J-15 instead of just pouring more resources into the J-20 and getting multiple variants of that into service asap ?

Most people talk like they think that a change in equipment in the armed forces is like change of horses every 25 miles in days of yore. You stop galloping, dismount, hand your horse over to a stable hand, pick a fresh horse, remount and start galloping again.

But that is not what its like. There can be no stopping and dismounting. The armed forces have to stay ready at all times. It is more like a 4X400 meter relay where the person who gets the baton stands far behind the line and accelerates and runs alongside the earlier baton bearer to take the baton just before the line so there is no break. Both are running full zip alongside each other.

An existing weapons system has to be fully inducted and ready to fight war by the time the old system retires. That means MMRCA has to come in, infrastructure established and pilots trained in tactics, technician trained in maintenance and repair and IAF incorporates MMRCA into its war plans. Does not sound like the last time I changed cars. Naturally. It's not

MiG 23s are retired. MiG 21s are half retired. LCA is not yet ready. The MMRCA has been fast tracked to fill the gaps that will be there as MiG 21s retire and as the LCA starts finding its feet. If war is fought anytime from 2011 to 2015, it will be with MiG 21, MiG 27, jaguar, Su-30. From 2013 to 2018 or thereabouts any war will have MMRCA and MiG 21 fighting side by side. After 2018 or so the MiG 21s will retire. If there was no MMRCA there would be NO replacement for Mig 21. We would never get the F-35 before the MiG 21s retire leaving the IAF even more toothless.

The MMRCA is a requirement for "operational readiness" very quickly and not some glint in the eye "aspiration" for tomorrow's technology. That is different and that is being addressed with AMCA and FGFA. The disadvantage of having a dozen MMRCA threads and ten thousand messages about MMRCA is that people have forgotten what it is about.

[Philip]

Shiv and Kartik are right,the Chinese will when their stealth bird arrives have mostly 4th-gen aircraft in their inventory,and we will have our FGFA to counter and flying dragon that might appear then! Moreover,as Shiv has said,the MMRCA is needed to" fill the gap" which is widening by the day.

In the MMRCA deal,an "Immediate" acquisition doesn't mean tomorrow morning! Neither should it mean half a decade hence.The sensible way forward whichever aircraft is chosen is to get at least one sqd. of existing aircraft in service transferred from the manufacturer to be replaced by the new fighters when built,just as was done with the SU-30s.In our scenario,the number of legacy MIG-21sto be pensioned off within the next few years, which are nearing the end of their lifespan,of which we are reminded of from time to time when they crash,will be considerable and represent a good % of the IAF's total strength.During this period whne we are losing aircraft,the PAF will be steadily increasing its numbers and quality.Local built JF-17s ,future J-10s will be inducted at regular intervals given the huge production capability of the PRC.While it was very heartening to see the first SU-30MKI built entirely from Indian raw material a few days ago take to the skies,even the full order of 270+ Flankers and future Super-Flankers,Brahmos and LR AAM equipped,will take at least upto 2015 to be largely completed.The increasing threat from the Sino-Pak combine which is growing more menacing by the day requires a fast-track solution to the MMRCA acquisitions.Whatever the merits..and I see few,in acquiring the JSF,arriving at the end of the decade at horrendous cost,25% more than an FGFA,which will be in IAF colours before 2020-as it is supposed to be indcuted into Russian service by 2015-16,s ludicrous.

[vivek_v]

Sticking with the MMRCA , how come the Rafale is within the 5% the cost of the EF if the news reports are to be believed. Are the french adding a huge margin for TOT or is the jet this costly ? Guess we will never know.

With the EF2000 , would the entire end production for the Indian airframes be allowed to be moved for India (for the tranche of birds which needs to be produced for the IAF) without causing a huge amount of outcry from the partners of the EF program who would try to keep as much of production possible within their own countries.

[kmc_chacko]

Chances of EF winning is more since Finance Minister has spoke about bailouting EU from Economic melt down

India may consider financing EU bailout: FM

NEW DELHI: Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on Wednesday hinted at financing for sorting out Eurozone crisis after a credible assessment of solvency problem is made.

"Our assessment of the situation is let them (Eurozone) make a credible assessment of solvency issue, try to sort out those problems and then after supplementary financing could be considered. Let us see what the leaders decide," he told reporters.

He was replying to a query on the Greece government's decision to seek referendum on a proposed EU rescue package which has created a fresh turmoil in the financial markets.

Mukherjee said at even at the G-20 finance ministers meeting in Paris, India had maintained that the European solvency issue should be sorted out by the European nations themselves.

"Let us see what the leaders decide (at the Cannes G20 meeting beginning tomorrow)," he said. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has left for France to participate in the two-day Summit of world's 20 leading economies (G20) to signal a "strong and coordinated approach" to put the global economy back on track, while addressing medium term structural issues.

Several European nations, including Greece, Portugal and Spain, are facing financial problems and a sovereign default is expected to have a severe impact on the whole region.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 586354.cms

[Pogula]

It is a waste of time and forum space discussing the F35 in the MMRCA context. The same goes for "alternatives" to the MMRCA tender. The purchase will go through for sure and the country is well past the "Point Of No Return." And people who feel India is spending way too much on 4++ jets need to remember that 50% of the money is expected to be spent back in India itself. So, technically the country is spending only half of the advertized amount. (What happens in reality is a totally different ball game).

Now, what really bothers me is the close margin on overall cost of these jets. I wonder how EADS got the Eurofighter's cost down so much, as to match that of the Rafale!!!

[Christopher Sidor]

This is a problem sentence. It sets the stage or what is to be said later.

You have forgotten why the MMRCA requirement exists. It does not exist to "aspire for tomorrow's tech". It exists only to quickly get today's tech in place to meet the force level requirements of the IAF which are falling to new lows as we still have not managed to get yesterdays technology in place.

Once you ignore a basic fact, anything can be stated with confidence.

couldn't have put it better. Its amazing that with this F-35 carrot dangled in front of us (and it is that- just a carrot), some of our BRFites are forgetting just how bad the numbers and technology situation is TODAY and will be till the MRCA arrives and the Su-30MKIs are inducted in full numbers (which isn't going to be till 2017). With all MiG-21s due to retire shortly except for the Bisons, the numbers are only going to drop further.

There is no way on earth that the US will allow India to set up a dedicated F-35 assembly line here itself that will eventually manufacture them from raw material phase itself. At best there will be transfer of some technology and source codes, but never to the level to which any of the MRCA companies would be willing to give. So that is one fundamental aspect of the MRCA that we will get next to nothing from going with the F-35.

F-35 is not a carrot. The F-35 program is running critically low on cash. Under a deal done in congress recently, the US DoD has to find cuts of approximately 400 billion USD. If those cuts cannot be found, automatic cuts of approximately 600 billion USD will occur over a period of a decade. Add to this UK has pulled out of F-35B program again due to funding cuts. US needs money to fund the F-35 program. Now consider the fact that we are going to spend approximately 10-11 billion USD on a 4th generation fighter. We have ample leverage to get what we want namely
1) Only 18-20 fighters to come in fly away condition. Rest to be manufactured in India
2) Complete hand over of source codes. If not available we ditch the American avianoics and weapon systems for other sources without in any way impairing its ability. Some thing similar was done for some of our other air assets.

Funny thing is, we had many posters ask why the F-35 was not looked, at even as far as a year ago- and it was brushed aside, citing the huge issues the F-35 has had in staying on cost and on schedule..what has changed since then? I don't recall this level of panic on BRF back then..the J-20's emergence has suddenly made everything else that isn't designed with some level of stealth obsolete? Why then is the PLAAF itself expending resources on the J-10B and J-11B as well as the J-15 instead of just pouring more resources into the J-20 and getting multiple variants of that into service asap ?

F-35 was not on offer for various reasons. The reasons were valid prior to 2008 lehman fiasco. Now they are not.
J-20 is a work in progress. But if we do not cater for its eventual arrival we will be loosing some very important time.
Just because China is doing something does not mean that we should ape or follow in their foot steps. China has always tried to overwhelm its opponents by numbers. We have followed a different path. It is a path of brain. Chinese path has been that of brawn.

Till date none of the posters who have argued against F-35 have ever refuted some plain facts
1) F-35 is more than a match for any of the Chinese fighters in inventory, excluding J-20.
2) F-35 is more than capable of handling most of the Chinese air defense systems. The same cannot be said of EFT of Rafael.
F-35 as an option is beyond anything that MMRCA competitors have on offer.

I do not deny that F-35 has some critical drawbacks. Chief among them being the ability to adhere to timelines of the current MMRCA tender. i.e. It is known that F-35 will not be able to join by 2015 and with 2015 I being very very optimistic.

[shiv]

Till date none of the posters who have argued against F-35 have ever refuted some plain facts
1) F-35 is more than a match for any of the Chinese fighters in inventory, excluding J-20.
2) F-35 is more than capable of handling most of the Chinese air defense systems. The same cannot be said of EFT of Rafael.
F-35 as an option is beyond anything that MMRCA competitors have on offer.

Come come Sidorji. You are making points that are unsupportable.

The F-35 is not going to a a standalone system. It will be part of a networked system where AWACS and space based assets will work alongside the F-35. Without that this business of being "more than a match for the Chinese" is plain bluster. What if Singapore gets 10 F-35s. Would that be more than a match for the Chinese? What if Taiwan get 40 of them? Would that take on the might of 300 or 500 Chinese J-10, 11, 12, 13.5, 14.7 whatever they have?

Until the F-35 came one of the strongest arguments made on here was "Numbers have a quality of their own". Has that suddenly become untrue now?

[Rahul M]

>> J-20 is a work in progress. But if we do not cater for its eventual arrival we will be loosing some very important time.

we already have.

[Pogula]

Till date none of the posters who have argued against F-35 have ever refuted some plain facts
1) F-35 is more than a match for any of the Chinese fighters in inventory, excluding J-20.
2) F-35 is more than capable of handling most of the Chinese air defense systems. The same cannot be said of EFT of Rafael.
F-35 as an option is beyond anything that MMRCA competitors have on offer.

Adding to what Shiv said in response to these baseless points you made, I would like to remind you that America (apart from the ridiculous "conditions" it forces its customers to agree to) has a tendency to block aid and technologies when its interests sieze to align with ours'. Buying a few transport crafts and such is fine, but buying critical assets from an unpredictable nation is suicide.

Also, last time I checked, America still opposes India's "Non-Alignment" agenda. That will surely play on their insecurities when dealing with India in the future.

[member_20029]

Good evening all, Tay.

not going to lie, that picture's hawt.

[Christopher Sidor]

Till date none of the posters who have argued against F-35 have ever refuted some plain facts
1) F-35 is more than a match for any of the Chinese fighters in inventory, excluding J-20.
2) F-35 is more than capable of handling most of the Chinese air defense systems. The same cannot be said of EFT of Rafael.
F-35 as an option is beyond anything that MMRCA competitors have on offer.

Adding to what Shiv said in response to these baseless points you made, I would like to remind you that America (apart from the ridiculous "conditions" it forces its customers to agree to) has a tendency to block aid and technologies when its interests sieze to align with ours'. Buying a few transport crafts and such is fine, but buying critical assets from an unpredictable nation is suicide.

Also, last time I checked, America still opposes India's "Non-Alignment" agenda. That will surely play on their insecurities when dealing with India in the future.

America on a back foot as far as F-35 is concerned. And Americans will try to block technologies, like they blocked via NSG access to nuclear enrichment technology. That is why we have to be cautious but we need not reject this fighter out of hand due to this. Unlike the nuclear deal, which according to me is basically a gift wrapped shit, we can be smarter.

We are "Non-Aligned" against whom? Non-Alignment was applicable when the cold war was going on. This is more than 2 decades past that. We should not get entangled with US in its adventures, like Taiwan or Iraq and possibly Iran. But what has that got to do with buying a fighter from US and possibly become one of the partners of this project? We take what we want from the yanks rest is all indifference or better still apathy.

[Will]

>> J-20 is a work in progress. But if we do not cater for its eventual arrival we will be loosing some very important time.

we already have.

Not if the PAK-FA/FGFA comes in reasonable time. You cant tell me that the Chinese can build a better plane than our friends the Russians.

[Taygibay]

Agreed with Kartik & Shiv too, which should be thanked
for replacing the thread on its rails. Ajatshatru too BTW.

Agreed with Singha and Kashi also & Philip & Saik.
( To AmitG, apologies accepted )

As for particulars :

by Kartik

There is no way on earth that the US will allow India to set up a dedicated F-35 assembly line here itself that will eventually manufacture them from raw material phase itself. At best there will be transfer of some technology and source codes, but never to the level to which any of the MRCA companies would be willing to give. So that is one fundamental aspect of the MRCA that we will get next to nothing from going with the F-35.

Thank you, buddy! Very few people here seem to understand that the US refused
full source codes to the United Kingdom which was their best support since WWII.
That is why the Franco-British cooperation resurrected since. So, if the yanks do
NOT share with their tier one partners, how much will they share with India?

by GeorgeWelch

And let's be honest, availability for the F-35 isn't THAT far behind the EF and Rafale.

Simply not true or even possible to calculate right now especially if one refers to
that link I posted. Not all EO systems are down pat right now and the famed F-35
"first no HUD plane" does not at present have a HMCS onboard, LM having asked
BAe to come up with a temporary solution until the main projected one gets done.
nor in this view

why not wait a little more and get a truly substantial leap in capability?

since a) a little more may be a lot more which urgency forbids
b) agreed to leap if not to substantial until proven
but c) darn ToT and liberty of use.


by AmitG

if Libya had S-300 batteries, would the Rafale/EFT been able to dominate Libyan airspace so easily?

Of course not so easily and yet, the EF did nothing at the SA-3 BTW
Libyan assets : S-75 (SA-2 GUIDELINE), S-125 (SA-3 GOA), and S-200 (SA-5 GAMMON)
From : http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=23841

The Rafale is at present the only fighter to provide its own SEAD in an omnirole fashion
meaning without having to equip the plane in dedicated role for that given mission.
Further, SPECTRA's librairy of threats needs to be built for a specific AntiAir system by
flying at it and then compute it in the future which the IAF is very capable of doing

from Singha

my interpretation of the cancelled meeting could sarkozy sir too busy with european bank crisis,

Yup, mine too, sorry for my ultraIndiacentric mates here but the Greek crisis
takes precedence over the MMRCA at least at that G20 summit ( not J-20 )


Allow me to reverse the order of apparition of these two posts
so that Singha ( latter ) can answer kmc_chacko ( former ) :

Chances of EF winning is more since Finance Minister has spoke about bailouting EU from Economic melt down

well um but since its generally agreed that EF needs more investment to be omni-role, even if the costs were ==, the EF might end up needing more money. I certainly do not see germany , italy or spain lining up to spend hard earned $$ on EF anytime soon....its UK vs France now.

How would the fact that Spain and Italy are next inline behind Portugal
to default at their debts like Greece help Eurofighter Gmbh.
Singha is correct : France vs UK for funding ( Deutschland may help ).
The question falls to commitment on devlopment and France leads there.

by Cain_Marko

If Saab could have an NG ready for demo,

But? They did not, mate? They sent the DEMO NG, not an NG yet and even
then the AESA trials had your evaluators move to Sweden.

I won't dispute the fact that complex alternatives exist as you suggested BUT
the ToT disappears mostly and your estimates are a bit off as in the M2000-5

Not completely accurate. M2k-5s will carry much of what Rafale can carry.

type of weapons yes, payload half that of the Raffy, no omnirole possible
and the availability still depends on those Qatari & UAE getting replaced by
the incoming Rafale first so no real timeline gains there.

That one though :

Lost a golden opportunity there - showing the mockup in Aero India was really pathetic - reflects the gap in US-India thinking. The US ought to have known that the IAF is v.professional, and offering it something like the blk60 or existing shornet vs. souped up Ecanards would be in poor taste. Probly smacked of Master-poodle attitude to the decision makers.

is sadly very true and explains why India is a bit wary of the US
as a realistic partner, needed acquisitions are fine but trust ......

As vivek_g and Pogula, I wonder about the EF being so close in price
to the Rafale when there was but one tender between the two where
the EF was mentioned as lower priced, the others going the Raffy's way?
Are the EF nations desperate enough to dump their profits on the EF?
But as dismayed for my favorite as that may make me, let's point out
that it is very good news for India which should be primary concern.

Finally from ChristopherSidor :

Till date none of the posters who have argued against F-35 have ever refuted some plain facts
1) F-35 is more than a match for any of the Chinese fighters in inventory, excluding J-20.
2) F-35 is more than capable of handling most of the Chinese air defense systems. The same cannot be said of EFT of Rafael.
F-35 as an option is beyond anything that MMRCA competitors have on offer.

Wow, a litany of errors man!
1)The F-35 is not a match to anything until it gets FOC and its Blocks done i.e. 2016+ minimum.

2)The F-35 may have a better capacity of air defenses handling but the point is moot ...
as I for one won't trust you not only because the Rafale can as of now but mostly
because I wont give credibility to someone who still cannot spell the name of a plane ...
that has been in service for over ten years, very sorry Qristougher,

Good day all, Tay.

PS Glad you liked it param.k

[Victor]

You cant tell me that the *deleted* can build a better plane than our friends the Ruskies.

They can't. The J-20 is a Ruskie plane, designed and built by Ruskies in China. Chengdu has a colony of expat Russian engineers from defunct Russian aircraft firms. It is fanciful to expect a country that has (badly) copied every Russian design to suddenly design its own 5th Gen fighter out of the blue. Doesn't happen in the real world. What is important is that china has gobs of money. Russia doesn't.

..we need the MMRCA planes urgently...

The leisurely, sloth-like MMRCA exercise should have buried this fallacy. Likewise the absurd Mirage upgrade. The message from the babus, including those in the IAF: "what we have is more than enough to take care of you for now". There is no reason to disbelieve this. If our pants were really on fire, we would have done a C-17 on the MMRCA.

[shiv]

If our pants were really on fire, we would have done a C-17 on the MMRCA.

And the nation would have done a Bofors on those who took the decision.

[Will]

You cant tell me that the *deleted* can build a better plane than our friends the Ruskies.

They can't. The J-20 is a Ruskie plane, designed and built by Ruskies in China. Chengdu has a colony of expat Russian engineers from defunct Russian aircraft firms. It is fanciful to expect a country that has (badly) copied every Russian design to suddenly design its own 5th Gen fighter out of the blue. Doesn't happen in the real world. What is important is that china has gobs of money. Russia doesn't.

Well maybe... but you aint going to see that thing in numbers anytime soon thats for sure. If you see it in numbers it will be just another one of their ripoffs not capable of much.