India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 3

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 16 Jan 2012 18:03

Raf Khan wrote:Concerning Gripen, its price is lower, but the gripenNG is only paper aircraft, half technology is US made (so no transfer to be awaited), they do not have AESA yet, and SAAB industry may not last many years (they won't produce cars in few months).

Why is transfer of technology important? IOW why tie ToT to MMRCA purchase which will only drive up the costs?

Is it not possible to only procure the minimum of fabrication/assembly and consumables production know how to be impervious to sanctions? Stockpile enough of the other stuff we can't produce ourselves (critical engine components etc). Build local overhaul and maintenance facilities and be done with it. This will still be half the overall upfront and overall program cost of the Tiffy or the Rafale.

For MLU two decades hence upgrade the Gripen with the LCA MLU upgrade elements. Is this scheme even remotely possible or sensible? Or will US torpedo even this lower level of tech transfer to India?

Or buy Gripen with the existing non-AESA radar and upgrade it with elements from the PAK-FA radar in another 15 years. Surely all the Russo-Indo bhai bhai funding deals and "co-development" will allow us to do that wont it? Or will it?

if fund is the issue; reduce the #'s... why to cancel the whole deal..?

If MMRCA ends up with say 70 Rafales what does it really do for our original problem that MMRCA was supposed to address - falling squadron numbers? This is the real and acute problem that MMRCA program is meant to solve, ToT, HiTech etc all got tacked on later.

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 16 Jan 2012 18:25

uddu wrote:Yes one option is to cut it to 60 aircrafts and have around 66 Tejas added to the current order of 40. But some say that if the number is reduced then the chances of technological transfer etc gets reduced and the benefits are going to be lesser and the cost of each system will go up substantially. If that's the case completely cancel the deal and go for Tejas Mk.1.

Serious question, if 66 Tejas are good enough for IAF, why aren't 126?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 16 Jan 2012 19:05

? where did you all hear it is 66 tejas? and what is ToTing on tejas means?

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 16 Jan 2012 19:12

SaiK wrote: ? where did you all hear it is 66 tejas? and what is ToTing on tejas means?

Here "Yes one option is to cut it to 60 aircrafts and have around 66 Tejas added to the current order of 40." quoth uddu. A conjecture on what to do in the MMRCA deal proves too costly.

Where did you hear about ToT'ing for Teja?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 16 Jan 2012 19:14

People have got so used to hear and using the TOT word that they ended up using it with LCA

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Jan 2012 19:32

10 years ago, our domestic industry was more backward, our defence production ambitions more limited, our threat perceptions from Sinic lands less. in that context the 126 x M2000-5 with local production made sense. if it had been followed through, the matter would have ended there.

in these intervening 10 years
- the M2k line closed and would cost a lot to reopen
- further developments have made it a bit dated and bit iffy against late model F-16 which have continued to receive block upgrades. TSP will continue to get batches of these per crisis it engineers
- China has made great strides in technology and production...the fruits of 1990s investment are appearing enmasse now...the J10 and J11 will keep improving
- we are also trying to climb the tech curve and bootstrap high tech products made domestically
- people are generally not willing to share technology unless there is a payoff in a huge deal....and even then some secrets will be retained by OEM
- costs have increased so much a fighter platform must remain in service for 40 years
- we got some more money and hence "needs/lifestyle" expanded to fill our "salary/savings"
- Tejas still needs lot of tech inputs like AESA radar and engine which inevitably involve foreign help
- for AMCA also it is critical we absorb technology now. a AMCA airframe built to Jag std is not on.

all this led to the current MRCA and why the "TOT" and manufacturing offsets came in - to plug gaps and fill needs to build a base for the next jump to the AMCA level.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 16 Jan 2012 19:50

Singha wrote:all this led to the current MRCA and why the "TOT" and manufacturing offsets came in - to plug gaps and fill needs to build a base for the next jump to the AMCA level.

But I thought we are getting all this and more through the Pakfa - better tech (AMCA level), collaboration, and co-development of critical tech.

Badar wrote:If MMRCA ends up with say 70 Rafales what does it really do for our original problem that MMRCA was supposed to address - falling squadron numbers? This is the real and acute problem that MMRCA program is meant to solve, ToT, HiTech etc all got tacked on later.

Precisely. If the primary purpose of the MRCA is to arrest falling numbers, which I believe it is, then may this stoopid circus stop. Buy all available M2k-5s off the market, esp. since so much has already been invested in keeping this venerable bird in condition, second, get a sqd or two of MiG-29s brought to SMT/K standards, third, get another sqd of MKI, four, get the Tejas up and running with decent A2A (BVR/WVR) and strike capabilities . Don't see why IAF can't get 40-60 birds in double quick time - by the time the first sqds of the MRCA arrive, and that at much cheaper prices.

I don't buy the idea that the IAF needs the uber eurocanards to manage PAF+PLAAF numbers superiority; the Pakfa is set to come in pretty soon, and the MKI continues to be well ahead of anything these AFs can muster. So, the IAF already has a distinct tech advantage, which will only increase once the Pakfa comes in. Invest $$s into making the LCA competitive with the Ecanards such as the Gripen NG, and buy in large quantities.

THis whole MRCA circus got out of hand the moment the new DPP came into being and all these a/c with varying weights/capabilities came on to the same playing field - ridiculous. What the **** did they want? A gripenesque, single engined bird OR a fat ass Shornet?

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 16 Jan 2012 19:54

Badar wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:No thanks, rather see the monies go into the Tejas. The Gripen will likely make the IAF orphan the LCA.
Why?

Why is there no one to kick IAF babu's ass and make them take bitter medicine? Everyone else other than India seems to manage this. Why is India so special here?

Because this sort of thing has been institutionalized and to some extent even justified thanks largely to a) the GOI's historical indifference in terms of indigenous tech and R&D, b) technocrats aiming for the moon and consequently not delivering reqd. products, c) an attitude that phoren is better might have also played a role to some extent.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 16 Jan 2012 20:03

Yogi_G wrote:Cain ji,there was a reason I put in "high performance",the Russians may rule the roost in PESA but they are starters in AESA tech and cannot match the number of T/R modules the west puts into a given space, with unkil leading the way, not to talk of efficiency of these individual modules.If i remember right tere was talk of quality issues with the t/r modules delivered which seem to have been rectified only now.if we get Roosi tech the whole point of getting up to date western tech is lost which we hoped to acquire through MMRCA.

And about elta,with all the contrasting info coming in of cooperation and then showstoppers put in by yanks, its a big risk betting on it. I wouldnt.

Yogi garu, Unkil is not in play anymore. It is between Thales/Selex vs. NIIP/NIIR, and even though it might seem as though the former have a lead of sorts, this is not clearly established. The Pakfa radar seems quite crammed with TRMs. Re. Israeli tech, irrespective of contrasting information via media outlets, it remains that India has certainly gained some experience in radar tech by collaborating with Israel - MFSTAR, PHalcon, Greenpine, and even MMR. Cannot see why the EL-2052 can't be a factor for LCA or other upgrades.

Furthermore, western tech, if it is so damned important could be acquired through myriad other ways - setup JVs with SAAB for the AMCA if needed. Work with Dassault on the UCAV project; hell, even Raytheon might be interested. Surely, if AESA tech was such an important issue, the same could've been had via a slightly more expensive M2k upgrade - a scaled version of the RBE-2 might have been sought. The M2k as it is, has a bigger nose and should not offer too much trouble.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Jan 2012 20:42

> the Pakfa is set to come in pretty soon

thats where we can agree to disagree. imho the FOC of Pakfa with useful new weapons and full spec new aesa radar and 5th gen fuel sipping engine will happen only around 2025. the MRCA FOC in the spec we want would be 2015 with less unknowns barring the aesa radar.

wrt to the EL-2052 it seems khan has barred its export to other nations aka India. its a evolutionary dead end for Israel as well, because US does not permit them to mount israeli radar on US made aircraft.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ia-351666/

kelesis · Post by **kelesis** » 16 Jan 2012 20:58

Good for Rafale : disagreements and rivality between EADS and BAE...

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... 05039.html

European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. (EAD.FR) has snubbed a last-minute approach by its Eurofighter Typhoon partner BAE Systems PLC (BA.LN) to become a joint prime bidder for an estimated $10-billion Indian air-force jet deal, a person familiar with the matter said.

The british NAO and french Cour des Comptes are probably right when they say that multinational consortium in defense industry with more than two partners are too costly and ineffective (Typhoon, F-35, A400M).

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 16 Jan 2012 21:41

European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. (EAD.FR) has snubbed a last-minute approach by its Eurofighter Typhoon partner BAE Systems PLC (BA.LN) to become a joint prime bidder for an estimated $10-billion Indian air-force jet deal, a person familiar with the matter said.

Forgive this noob question, but err ... what? Isn't BAE part of EF Gmbh? I am not sure what is going on here.

Also, simply out of mischief to stir the pot

, what does BAE know that they want to jump in at this late hour?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 16 Jan 2012 21:49

well, I think a joint r&d setup could thrash up unkill ban on 2052.. whatever that unkill supplied, software and hardware can be developed. joint force means better product. however, if there is a ban towards that, then AoA: need to work it all alone.

kelesis · Post by **kelesis** » 16 Jan 2012 22:07

Dassault has just hired an Indian PR firm for MMRCA. This is not something you do a few days before losing a 4 year long tender.

I think the BAE move and EADS refusal reveals a problem with the Typhoon. They feel they are about to lose and BAE needs this deal far more than EADS. Remember EADS is half french... The major part of the top management is also french and very linked to the french gov. It can explain why BAE suddenly wants to be in charge of the file.

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 16 Jan 2012 22:19

kelesis wrote:Dassault has just hired an Indian PR firm for MMRCA. This is not something you do a few days before losing a 4 year long tender.

I think the BAE move and EADS refusal reveals a problem with the Typhoon. They feel they are about to lose and BAE needs this deal far more than EADS. Remember EADS is half french... The major part of the top management is also french and very linked to the french gov. It can explain why BAE suddenly wants to be in charge of the file.

So EADS has a conflict of interest regarding the success of EF (company objective) verses Rafale (national objective)? This company holdings spaghetti mess makes my head hurt.

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 16 Jan 2012 23:44

BAE wanting to become prime bidder may have more to do with the UK wanting to reduce its commitment to purchase EF.

As for EADS being half-french, it is important to look at ownership of Eurofighter and not EADS. Eurofighter is managed through a holding company Eurofight GmbH, and is not directly entirely under EADS control.

Lastly, involvement of BAE should concern us more because technically the firm is under US jurisdiction and so deeply engaged economically with Pentagon that even without jurisdiction issues, US has huge leverage on the firm. (This is only an argument for those who find US items more sanctions prone and eye them suspiciously).

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 16 Jan 2012 23:48

As for the speculation and suggestion about reduced numbers of MRCA or terms for ToT etc. -- sorry to burst your bubbles. Not going to happen!

Simple reason: any change in numbers and ToT etc. will invalidate the commercial bids that have been submitted.

In the event MRCA does get scrapped, then purchase will likely be made through FMS to avoid any undue delays -- i.e. it will be F-16 or SH.

kelesis · Post by **kelesis** » 17 Jan 2012 00:20

So EADS has a conflict of interest regarding the success of EF (company objective) verses Rafale (national objective)? This company holdings spaghetti mess makes my head hurt.

The situation is even worst... EADS is not a pure private company like BAE, Boeing or LM. EADS holds 46% Dassault Aviation because the french state decided to use EADS as an holding for its stake in Dassault and MBDA. France is also one of the biggest cutomer of EADS's space and military branch (it is also the case for MBDA).
For that reason, among others, EADS has huge governance issues. The top management was supposed to change this year but negociations between france and germany are turning bad and everything has been frozen yet.

BAE is probably wary about EADS issues and they want to act and lead the negociations. That's why last December Louis Galois, EADS's Big Boss (he is french), learnt the Typhoon offer to UAE by the press!

The most important is that, for many reasons (political, strategical, economical), Germany and UK are moving away from each other, and very fast. Consequently, each believes the other is plotting against him... with the French : on one hand BAE/Dassault with Telemos or rumors of possible orders for Rafale M, is not in favor of EADS (not to mention the historical defense treaty between france and UK for a very deep "military" and "industrial" cooperation signed in 2010). Last year Dassault called publicly France and Britain to work on a 5 gen european fighter. On the other hand, EADS is already 40% french... so the Brits fear is that France may decide to return to the good old cooperation franco-allemande and merger all its industry : Safran, Thales, Dassault, DCNS etc... with EADS or another continental structure.

Things are not so complicated on the Rafale side :

Dassault Aviation : held by Dassault family and the French State (via EADS)
Thales : controled by Dassault and the french State
DCNS : held by Thales and the French State
Safran : controled by french state and... its own employees (16%)

The coherence of the offer and the cohesion of the consortium for the 20 years to come is probably a concern for IAF and Indian gov.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 17 Jan 2012 00:27

Hmm, remember this update from Shiv Aroor:

The sense I get is the government has until Republic Day (Jan 26) to declare the lowest bidder -- if it wants to, that is. After that, the country enters a phase of an elaborate series of crucial state elections that bring with them their own political sensitivities and code of conduct guidelines. The sense I get, therefore, is that if the government intends to make an announcement this month, it has to be in the next 10-odd days. Otherwise, it could drift for months as the establishment's mind gets diverted. As always, stay tuned.

And now we have these "news reports" that a decision is to be announced in 10 days. Methinks someone read Shiv's comment and turned that into a "decision imminent in 10 days" news story.

I won't be surprised at all if the only thing that we'll have after 10 more days will be 10 more pages of this thread.

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 17 Jan 2012 01:23

Thanks avid and kelesis, appreciate your input on making the incomprehensible setup a little more comprehensible.

nachiket, I wonder if a defense acquisition has any impact what so ever on a election result.

PS: Unless the EF wins. Then it was an inside Italian job to benefit Italy etc etc.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 17 Jan 2012 02:03

Badar wrote:
European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. (EAD.FR) has snubbed a last-minute approach by its Eurofighter Typhoon partner BAE Systems PLC (BA.LN) to become a joint prime bidder for an estimated $10-billion Indian air-force jet deal, a person familiar with the matter said.
Forgive this noob question, but err ... what? Isn't BAE part of EF Gmbh? I am not sure what is going on here.

Also, simply out of mischief to stir the pot , what does BAE know that they want to jump in at this late hour?

The pitch to India is German-led and the only development here is that BAE would like a bigger role in the final contract negotiations (which I agree would suggest that they believe a EF victory is the offing). The aircraft on the other hand is still produced by Eurofighter Gmbh under the existing MoU and acquisitions will still be managed through NETMA.

On the broader issue of how the dispersed EF program would impact the Indian order - it wouldn't. As the A-330 and Eurocopter Fennec's pole position in other competitions (ahead of the single nation Boeing, Ilyushin and Bell offers) would suggest, the Indian MoD isn't averse to mature multinational products.

The aim here would be to indigenize production to the maximum possible extent. For example, the BAE's closing down of the Hawk production at Warton has no impact on the HAL's line at Bangalore (aside from looking to become a future supplier to BAE). Similarly, if Sukhoi were to shut down or shift its Su-30/35 line to say... Kazakhstan, it would make little difference to HAL which has been building MKIs completely in-house since 2010.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Jan 2012 02:53

What are the possibilities of having French RB2E AESA radar, stores and other avionics of choice for EF2K? With Ef2K, we get those retractable fuel pods, decoys, and other A2A aspects. With French radar and stores, we get to advance on the ground attack role that is not yet mature with EFs.

Such an a/c would also mean Raytheon missiles could be ported in, and in addition home grown varieties - brahmos, 172 and astra.
?

so that France gets the M2K upgrade $2b, and about 35% share from the MMRCA share. IAF gets the bang, and strategists gets the most boost!

unkill will have the dhoti shiver. dhoti exports will increase from India, so double thumbs up!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jan 2012 08:09

after suffering nosebleed from just 450 Mica purchase you still want french munitions pkgs? to me, local stuff and few from israel and usa seem to be the best among several bad options. either way we better have $5b in the bank to properly kit up the MRCA as a warfighting machine.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Jan 2012 08:17

. taken!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Jan 2012 10:01

Whichever way the decision goes,there will be a significant bite of the cherry for France.The big Q is whether Sarko can arrange for the large French contingent in EADS to sing the Marseillaise.Might get them a gong or two back in Paris! It's why BAe seem to be panicking.

member_20296 · Post by **member_20296** » 17 Jan 2012 10:23

The only way to bargain with these people now is start negotiating with both of them and tell them their negotiations will fruit into what order they will take home

Any ways guys we are buying both A/Cs

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 17 Jan 2012 10:33

What negotiations? The price bids have been submitted already.

member_20296 · Post by **member_20296** » 17 Jan 2012 10:41

Hey Avid
We need discount

me a poor tax payer don't have such money, plus my brothers in engineering colleges do need jobs when they come out so a 5 taka more in local investment will make me tad happier.

MarcH · Post by **MarcH** » 17 Jan 2012 10:46

I think you guys should get around your idea of involvement of EADS as a whole. The partner in the Typhoon programme is Cassidian, or EADS's German military aviation division. They missed a huge opportunity, when they picked a new name. I would have gone for the old one, Messerschmitt.
Of course they don't want BAe to take away potential work from them. A bit internal competition isn't all that bad, when it comes to upgrade deals and support contracts. At least from the view of a customer.
Eurofighter offers multiple choices, Dassault offers simple decisions: Take it, or leave it. Obviously the IAF prefers simple decisions. Imagine the choice is Eurofighter. and HAL would become 5th consortium member. Therefore, five potential sources for a MLU. A nightmare ! Indian beaurocracy would spend ten years to identify the best choice.

koti · Post by **koti** » 17 Jan 2012 11:59

MarcH wrote:I think you guys should get around your idea of involvement of EADS as a whole. The partner in the Typhoon programme is Cassidian, or EADS's German military aviation division. They missed a huge opportunity, when they picked a new name. I would have gone for the old one, Messerschmitt.
Of course they don't want BAe to take away potential work from them. A bit internal competition isn't all that bad, when it comes to upgrade deals and support contracts. At least from the view of a customer.
Eurofighter offers multiple choices, Dassault offers simple decisions: Take it, or leave it. Obviously the IAF prefers simple decisions. Imagine the choice is Eurofighter. and HAL would become 5th consortium member. Therefore, five potential sources for a MLU. A nightmare ! Indian beaurocracy would spend ten years to identify the best choice

That is ok, but what is the point that you want to put ahead in the above post apart from ridiculing Indian bureaucracy?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Jan 2012 14:14

AWST reports that the LCA is delayed yet again,technical reasons,and will be inducted only by late 2013/2014.The IAF has reluctantly agreed to this rescheduling.NLCA also delayed-technical reasons.The IAF is willing tobuy 80+ MK-2s if it meets "performance requirements,smaller maintenance footprint,shorter takeoffand better turn rate".MK-2 will fly with a new engine only by 2014 and to perfect it will take at least another two to three years of flight testing.In fact,as I predicted,MK-2 might arrive at the same time as the FGFA!

In view of this factor,the MMRCA deal becomes even more significant,as there is no guarantee that the LCA MK-2 will also deliver on time. The 42 extra "upgraded" Super Flankers will ease the shortage of aircraft to some extent,but numbers still do matter as the Sino-Pak combine is producing their common aircraft at very fast rates.A holistic review of the entire IAF inventory to meet the future challenges is required,as looking at the scenario as of today,the number of MMRCAs required will be difficult to cut,unless aditional cheaper options are also acquired.

The interesting part is that we have been depending upon ,guess who,.......none other than EADS to "optimise systems and speed up flight test and certification"! Is there a connection wiht LCA developmental delays and the award of the MMRCA? It would be truly ironic if the Raffy wins the day and EADS is left holding the wooden spoon!

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 17 Jan 2012 14:38

Reuters: India may choose winner of fighter jet contract in 2 weeks

NEW DELHI: India may announce the lowest bidder for a contract worth about $10 billion to buy fighter jets for the country's airforce in the next two weeks, N A K Browne, chief of the Indian Air Force said.

The Eurofighter, a four-nation consortium, and France's Dassault are left in the race to sell India 126 fighter jets and help revamp the country's defence industry in line with its rising global clout. American, Russian and Swedish bids were rejected in April.

"I am hopeful that in another two weeks' time we will be able to shortlist the name," Browne told Reuters on the sidelines of an event.

Eurofighter, which makes the Typhoon fighter jet, is a four-nation consortium of EADS, representing Germany and Spain, Britain's BAE Systems and Italy's Finmeccanica.

Their competitor is France's Dassault, which makes the Rafale plane.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Jan 2012 14:51

It does looki like an announcement to coincide with Republic Day.By the way,who is the Ch.Guest this year?

Sriman · Post by **Sriman** » 17 Jan 2012 14:54

Philip wrote:By the way,who is the Ch.Guest this year?

Ms Yingluck Shinawatra, PM of Thailand.

VinayG · Post by **VinayG** » 17 Jan 2012 16:35

member_22516 · Post by **member_22516** » 17 Jan 2012 17:45

Philip wrote:The interesting part is that we have been depending upon ,guess who,.......none other than EADS to "optimise systems and speed up flight test and certification"! Is there a connection wiht LCA developmental delays and the award of the MMRCA? It would be truly ironic if the Raffy wins the day and EADS is left holding the wooden spoon!

I hadn't catch that EADS was kind of a 'technical advisor' to LCA flight tests. Contract was to take place in 2009, so in 2011 there should have been visible effects. I don't think that lowering down LCA by EADS would have occurred on purpose : it's always better to show that your cooperation on a program is benefit, to help to secure future contract as MMRCA.
Well, we're not in LCA flight test team, so we cannot judge if it was an improvement or if it had no significant impact.
But i've not really heard 'special thanks' to EADS for their help on LCA. Have you ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jan 2012 19:40

EADS was asked to review the entire flight test program and use their experience to optimize the testing and cut out wasteful or redundant tests. I believe they were also asked to help on making the Naval Tejas undercarriage lighter because it was over engineered and too heavy.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jan 2012 20:49

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6okVNJ6 ... re=related

Rafale's over the med....very nice music....there is a certain sadness and emotion about this noble beast that cannot be expressed in a dry formula...its hard to let her go if we let her go...marriage is done for many reasons....but first love is always first love...damn she's beautiful!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Jan 2012 21:29

Singha,take solace from this immortal love song..."Parlez-moi d'amour" (Speak to me of love) .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3KbZhYCqk0

MarcH · Post by **MarcH** » 17 Jan 2012 22:10

koti wrote:That is ok, but what is the point that you want to put ahead in the above post apart from ridiculing Indian bureaucracy?

Point is, even if Eurofighter is identified as L1, there are good reasons to go for Rafale. It is as programme way easier to handle.