Manish_P wrote:Rakesh wrote:Dassault has proposed detachable wing tips to accommodate the Rafale M on the Vikrant. My personal opinion is that is not a good solution...
+1
Rakesh ji, have they asked (or are likely to demand) for a minimum number of units order towards offsetting the development (manufacturing, testing, certifying, maintenance & spares) costs?
I am wondering that if we are likely to be the sole operators of such a 'bespoke' platform then what is the ROI for them to develop it, unless they charge them very high (with justification given as being sanction-proof)?
Especially considering we are planning to build our own naval planes in the future...
With a confirmed order, they will tack on the developmental costs onto the aircraft. It is upto the IN to confirm the order.
The problem is primarily this ---> operating a stand alone fleet of F-18SHs will be prohibitively expensive for the Indian Navy. With the MiG-29K, there was always the MiG-29 in the IAF to fall back on for training and maintenance issues. Naval aviators also leaned on the IAF for their experience with the MiG-29. With the F-18, there is nothing "home grown" to fall back on. Everything will be what the OEM and the user (US Navy) says. Now with the Rafale M, there is the Rafale C to fall back on with the IAF. And Dassault is pushing the case of fleet commonality, which is quite frankly hard to overlook.
So, assuming the Rafale M makes it to the Indian Navy, issues like not fitting on lifts (as of now) will be resolved and the IN will pay the financial cost. There is no point in dealing with two OEMs - Dassault and Boeing - when you can deal with one (Dassault). And the Rafale M is no slouch and is eons better than the MiG-29K.
Remember, this entire deal of 57 (now 36) MRCBF aircraft was originally meant for the CATOBAR carrier. So while these fighters will be on the Vikrant and Vikramaditya, the IAC-2 vessel will be the real deal. Here is where the F-18 will outshine the Rafale M. She carries more ordnance than the Rafale M, she has a longer airframe life than the Rafale M, that APG-79 AESA on the F-18SH will be more than a match for the AESA on the Rafale M....among other plus points. Where Boeing will lose (assuming the contest ever sees the light of day) is in the overall deal.
How do you argue against fleet commonality when the sister service has 36 Rafales in service and is actively considering ordering more? What is the plus point in working with another OEM and investing upwards of $10 billion to acquire a naval fighter which has no counterpart in the IAF? At that stage, Rafale M not fitting on fitting on the lifts will not be a "deal killer" problem. Issues like bespoke platform are only meant for local maal i.e. HAL Dhruv does not have auto blade folding. But all sorts of leeway are given for phoren maal, because it is phoren. I never heard the IAF complain about the first batch of Mirage 2000s that came with a lesser powerful turbofan. Same with the first batch of SEPECAT Jaguars. But HAL Tejas Mk1 is not good enough, even though she is better than the Mirage 2000.
So while Rafale M cannot fit on the lifts, either they will adopt the detachable wingtips solution or have folding wings or even cut open the vessel (Vikrant) - to enlarge the lifts - during her midlife refit. Any delay and any cost is acceptable for phoren maal. The tentacles of the import lobby are deep.
The only saving grace is that this deal will likely never see the light of day, because the CDS is hell bent against a CATOBAR aircraft carrier. He is not interested in investing in a program that will take 15 years to arrive, when there are other more pressing military programs that need to be acquired. The IAF will not touch the F-18SH with a ten foot pole. They do not believe that it is an aircraft suited for air force operations. They have already invested in the Rafale and they will not invest any more money into another fourth generation fighter. So put yourself in the MoD shoes and ask yourself this question - two STOBAR aircraft carriers are there, MiG-29K is there, TEDBF development has commenced, we can replace the lost MiG-29K/KUBs with more from Russia........so what phor you need 36 new naval fighters? And had there been three aircraft carriers, the Indian Navy would have a far stronger case. But they don't.
Even Boeing has realized that with the F-18SH...they may not make it to the finish line in the 114 MRFA deal. So they have put the F-15EX into the mix, because with the F-15EX they have a clear winner. She carries a ridiculous amount of ordnance and has an awesome AESA radar...amongst various other strengths. She will outclass all the other fighters in the MRFA contest. But the IAF will not purchase the F-15EX. What will they do with the Rambha fleet that is less than 20 years old? They want only the Rafale. From their standpoint, it makes perfect sense. And the Navy has already said that they will go with whatever aircraft the IAF chooses. So Rafale M it will be, assuming they have the money for it. But they do not.
If another 36 Rafales do come for the IAF...it is all over in the MRFA deal and even in the MRCBF deal. Then get ready for the ride, because RaGa will have convulsions and fits. An additional 36 Rafales will have implications for India far greater than IAF squadron shortage. Everything is riding on phoren fighters - strategic partnerships, CATOBAR aircraft carrier, etc. Thus RaGa and his ilk will do everything in their power to kill the deal. I will celebrate only when all 36 Rafales of the second batch - assuming such a deal is ever signed - have arrived. Then it is really game over in the MRFA and MRCBF deals.
But no Govt in power can force a military platform onto a military service in India, because no Govt - BJP or Congress - has even an iota of a clue as to how and what these platforms are capable of. You cannot blame them really, as it is not their area of expertise. The service will tell the Govt what they want and the Govt will buy it. The only hurdles for the service are money and corruption, which is exactly what RaGa accused the Modi Govt of in the Rafale deal. But the way the procurement system is set up in India, is that the service has to first conduct the technical down-select. And what the service wants in the technical down-select, the service will get. Only after that, does the Govt come into the picture. Doing it any other way, will reek of corruption. And the opposition will take the ruling Govt to the cleaners if they ever attempted a stunt like that.
And like chetak rightfully said, with the arrival of the S-400...everything will be up in the air. The S-400 purchase is not going to go down well in US political circles. If not for anything else, the S-400 will be the litmus test for the India-US strategic partnership. But it is a political price that India will have to pay. But it is better to pay it now, then when we are deeply invested into the US military ecosystem. At that point, it will be too late. Our hands will be tied. Pay it now, whatever the cost.
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