Avid wrote:Rakesh-ji...
Why the -ji?
And my apologies in advance for a long post.
Avid wrote:...with TEDBF slated to come in 12 years time; and LCA MK2 slated to arrive sooner...
TEDBF is not coming in 12 years. Despite all the well intentioned plans, TEDBF will be delayed. It exists only on the drawing board as of now and in scale models.
I am not an aviation guru, but we have not even reached PDR (Preliminary Design Review) stage with the TEDBF. I am sure there are stages even prior to this (i.e. wind tunnel tests, etc). After PDR, will come CDR (Critical Design Review), then fabrication of multiple prototypes, testing those prototypes on the ground in various situations, then taxi trials, then a first flight, then a few years of flight tests to reach IOC (Initial Operational Clearance) and then finally FOC (Final Operational Clearance). After all this is done, then only can the Navy place the order for the aircraft. And I have condensed this and I am sure I have missed a number of important steps between. Moral of the Story - TEDBF is going to take a minimum of 15 years and I am being optimistic. And production has to meet the numbers required. If the stakeholders hum & haw on production, then it will be even more delayed.
And in the middle of all this is another very important factor - FUNDING. See how delayed the Tejas Mk2 program is. It took the stakeholders from Nov 2009 till November 2021 (12 years) to reach the CDR stage. They spent Rs 2,500 crore to get there. Then in Aug 2022, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has sanctioned investment of Rs 6,500 crore for funding of prototypes. First flight is expected only in 2026/27 - which is around three to four years away. Then Air HQ has to place a order of the Mk2, which they keep repeatedly scaling back on ---> from 201 to 140 to 100+. And this will have a direct effect on the program and its successor i.e. AMCA.
Even if we assume that funding is miraculously present, there is another equally important factor - PRIORITIES. This Govt has Self Reliance as the goal. What is the guarantee that the opposition shares that same vision? In the middle of the TEDBF development path (15+ years), what will happen when the opposition comes to power and they take a different route? How long will the BJP continue to win elections?
Avid wrote:...wouldn't you think the compromise for accepting the FA-18SH serves the purpose?
In light of all this ambiguity with the TEDBF program, comes in the MRCBF (Multi Role Carrier Borne Fighter) acquisition in which the F-18SH and Rafale M are in competition. Both aircraft are great and are proven. Both aircraft can do the job that the Navy requires. The navy has evaluated both aircraft in a number of parameters and both aircraft have received a grade, based on those parameters. The rumour is that the Rafale M has scored higher than the F-18SH. That is not surprising and has nothing to do with the Rhino being an inferior platform, but more of the Vikrant being able to carry out effective carrier operations with the Rhino. Some of the issues that have come to light are;
1) The arresting gear on the Vikrant cannot handle the weight of the Rhino. The Rhino is the US Navy's premier carrier fighter. That APG-79 AESA radar is spectacular. She is a beautiful bomb truck and does her job with elan. She can also carry a plethora of weaponry. The jury is still out on how much of that weaponry, the Indian Navy will get her hands on. But that is a discussion for another day. But the issue remains that the Rhino is best suited for a CATOBAR vessel, which the Vikrant is not. The Rhino is handicapped on a STOBAR. While she can take off with a meaningful payload, how much of that payload she can bring back is debatable. See this --->
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7308&start=2440#p2571968
2) The F-18SH is BIG and that is a negative on an aircraft carrier the size of the Vikrant. Space is a paramount issue on any aircraft carrier, but it is really acute on the Vikrant. At ~45K tons, she is less than half the size of a Nimitz Class or Gerald R Ford Class supercarrier. And despite all the marketing hype that Boeing was doing to the Indian Navy, the reality is that the Rhino is longer than the Rafale M and that will play a factor in how many fighter aircraft the Vikrant's hangar can store.
3) The delta wing of the Rafale M is actually a positive for the Vikrant. Yes, she cannot fold her wings like the Rhino, but the Rafale M can be stacked like samosas. Do a google image search of how the Charles De Gaulle stores her Rafale Ms on board and you will see what I mean. More aircraft the Vikrant can carry = more aircraft available for carrier operations.
4) The Meteor has proven to be a game changer for the IAF and realizing this, Boeing was reportedly pushing for GOTUS clearance for Raytheon to sell the D variant of the AIM-120 AMRAAM. I am not aware of any clearance being given, but Meteor is being offered to the Indian Navy. That much I can confirm. And Meteor will outrange any missile that the PLAAF or PAF has. But the most important factor is that the Rafale M will be piloted by an Indian and I say that without jingoism and hyper nationalism. Our training is second to none.
None of this will be a deal killer for the Rhino IMVHO. The Indian Navy can certainly work with the Rhino, but it will not be ideal. The Rafale M is a different story. And yes, she too has her negatives (smaller airframe life, smaller payload capacity, etc when compared to the Rhino), but none of these are deal killers for the Rafale M. See the Indian Navy's doctrine and aircraft carrier usage, and it will make perfect sense as to why the Rafale M is better suited for the Indian Navy over the F-18SH.
Rafale also has another thing going for it. But whether it will actually be implemented (or publicized) remains to be seen. See this post of mine and check out the highlighted part in RED --->
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7266&start=4440#p2574478. The Rafale has already taken over the nuclear strike role from the Mirage 2000 in IAF service. The fact that the Indian Navy wants this capability is interesting. The Americans will never allow this on the F-18SH. Another positive for the Rafale M (and this is a BIG one) is this --->
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7266&start=4280#p2567609
Avid wrote:...Especially if -- a) the aircraft arrives much sooner than Rafale-M to plug the acute necessity;
Arriving quicker is the main USP of the Rhino. Her main Achilles Heel is that she is American in origin. The counter argument to that is that the entire offensive wing of the Indian Naval Air Arm is American in origin. From P-8I to MH-60R to Sea Guardian UAVs, the Indian Navy is fully invested in the American ecosystem. The Rhino is a perfect complement to that.
But there is a problem and it is a view that is shared by both the GOI and the IN, albeit unofficially. And it is this ---> nothing *SCREAMS* that you are firmly in the American camp, like operating an American origin fighter. And that is a perception that neither the GOI or the IN would prefer to entertain. That view stems from a result of 200+ years of being colonized by the British and has left a very bitter taste in the mouth. It is still very much alive today, even though it has seen some measurable scale back. India's Multi Polar Alignment doctrine is nothing more than Nehru's Non Alignment doctrine i.e. Old Wine in New Bottle.
I believe 2024 will bring some interesting news for the Rafale, the Indian Air Force and the Indian Navy. BJP will have to win the 2024 elections for this (which I do believe will happen), but it will spell the end of the MRFA contest for the IAF. And the MRCBF contest plays a key role in this. See this --->
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7634&start=2840#p2569743
Avid wrote:...and b) if it bring F-414 manufacturing to India which is central to the pipeline of aircrafts to come.
I believe F414 manufacturing is being treated as a separate, stand alone, issue by the GOI. Yes, she will power the Tejas Mk2, TEDBF and first two AMCA squadrons. But tying F414 production in India to the MRCBF and MRFA contests is not something the GOI will entertain. The US can certainly push it, but the GOI or the customer (IAF and IN) will not bite.
Avid wrote:What do you think is the probability that the current order will be expanded to include for both carriers (replace the Mig-29K)?
I don't believe there is room for anymore aircraft beyond the 26 MRCBF being acquired.
The Vikramaditya will be unable to carry the Rafale M or the F-18SH. The less said about the Vikramaditya the better.