Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
Post Reply
Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

Philip wrote:So if we want the FGFA from now on,it will be more of buying the T-50 in much the same way that we bought the MKI,with some minor tweaks."Opportunity knocks but once".
The reasons may be whatever, the fact is ... FGFA = PAK FA. So then why not wait for it to complete and then test it against the F-35.

In either case, we can negotiate a deal that delivers two squadrons off-the-shelf to the IAF by 2020.
The LCA's birth pangs-the baby has been for so long in "confinement",with the definitive MK-2 still about 4-5 years away,is why the IAF is so desperate about the Rafale."A bird in the bush is worth two in the hand". If the defence budget is raised,then the Raffy will make the cut,but there could be a cut in the final numbers.120 may be the max.
That's where the MoD needs to step in and ensure that the Tejas program stands firm. Bolster it with additional orders for force multipliers if necessary.

Unlike the IN, the IAF is unfortunately not invested, truly invested, in the Tejas program. And since its got a fixed squadron strength rather than fixed budget authorized, the financial burden on the exchequer is not an issue for the IAF brass either.
Just as US allies are cutting down on JSF numbers,the US too,so too will we have to review the situ once the 120 are almost home.
You may not like the outcome Philip, but it doesn't change the fact that total orders for the F-35 have increased, despite cuts from Europe.
As far as the entire evaluation process goes,the Rafale has won fair and square.Plan "B"s or "C"s might require another round of byzantine bargaining,taking even more time.Nevertheless,the GOI must review the entire IAF's future force plans and modify them if required. With so many demands for economic growth ,etc.,the primary task of the new dispensation has clearly been spelt out as revitalising the economy.
Agreed.
Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21538
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Philip »

If JSF orders have increased,from where have they emerged,as all available info of late has shown reduced orders from potential clients,including the US.I've posted details time and again.Anyway,the US has no option other than to buy it in as many numbers as it can afford.So China,bad luck,as these birds will also have AWACS,tankers,Growlers and F-22s accompanying them-apart from the legacy SHs,etc.

As far as the FGFA/JSF comparison is concerned,the two are diff, in concept.The JSF "jack of all...",more heavily emphasised for the strike role,with not v.good dogfighting capabilities,and even doing close support replacing A-10s,while the T-50 clearly meant to counter the F-22 to dominate air space. I also doubt whether such a face-off would be possible. The IAF must setup its shop with its requirements/parameters and test each aircraft separately if poss. to evaluate the same.The US is so secretive about its stealth tech,that even the helmet is not being shown right now to some potential buyers. The IAF have already rejected the JSF when it was actively touted some time ago.

The true state of affairs in the IAF,aircraft capable of flying,those about to be retired,state of the LCA MK-1 and MK-2 development and production wise-a realistic estimate,and what residue capability the force possesses,will be the deciding factors.From the GOI's statement,it appears that it has decided that "there is no other option". Thus comes the next Q.Where is the moolah going to come from and what will be cut?
Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

Philip wrote:If JSF orders have increased,from where have they emerged,as all available info of late has shown reduced orders from potential clients,including the US.I've posted details time and again.
And time and again they've been rebutted. Reduced orders from JSF consortium member i.e. Italy and Netherlands. Offset by new customers in South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Israel.

Its quite clear total orders have increased.
Anyway,the US has no option other than to buy it in as many numbers as it can afford.So China,bad luck,as these birds will also have AWACS,tankers,Growlers and F-22s accompanying them-apart from the legacy SHs,etc.
The US very much had the option of continuing F-22 production. It was closed down as a deliberate and considered decision in favour of the F-35.
As far as the FGFA/JSF comparison is concerned,the two are diff, in concept.The JSF "jack of all...",more heavily emphasised for the strike role,with not v.good dogfighting capabilities,and even doing close support replacing A-10s,while the T-50 clearly meant to counter the F-22 to dominate air space.
Until its rivals can field an EO-DAS analogue (not any easy task) and mate it to a helmet comparable to the VSI HMDS, the F-35 will remain unrivaled at WVR combat.

How is the F-35 designed to replace the A-10? CAS is a task, that even the F-22 can do (though it lacks an LDP). As a matter of fact, the A-10's already being replaced by the F-16 and F-15E. So why do you keep mentioning it in the F-35's context?
I also doubt whether such a face-off would be possible. The IAF must setup its shop with its requirements/parameters and test each aircraft separately if poss. to evaluate the same.
Why not? The IAF's bound to have a set of missions and capabilities in mind for its future FGFA. Test both aircraft on the same set of parameters, have both sides put their 'best prices' forward and go with the better package.
The US is so secretive about its stealth tech,that even the helmet is not being shown right now to some potential buyers.
'Some potential buyers' like whom? Because there are plenty of journalists who have actually tested it (albeit on a simulator) and material on the equipment is in widespread circulation.
The IAF have already rejected the JSF when it was actively touted some time ago.
Was that before or after it trashed the PAK FA in that meeting with the MoD & HAL mandarins?
The true state of affairs in the IAF,aircraft capable of flying,those about to be retired,state of the LCA MK-1 and MK-2 development and production wise-a realistic estimate,and what residue capability the force possesses,will be the deciding factors.From the GOI's statement,it appears that it has decided that "there is no other option". Thus comes the next Q.Where is the moolah going to come from and what will be cut?
Looks that way yes. Though keep in mind the MoF is yet to weigh in. After all the main issue impeding the UPA govt on this particular deal was still same one that the current govt faces. Funds are tight and everyone has 'urgent' requirements that need to be met.
Last edited by Viv S on 04 Jun 2014 06:22, edited 2 times in total.
VishalJ
BRFite
Posts: 1034
Joined: 12 Feb 2009 06:40
Location: Mumbai
Contact:

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by VishalJ »

nik wrote:India signs up for Rafale and kisses good bye all home grown capability to build Aircrafts in future (no money left)
OR
India does not sign up for Rafale, France loses capability to build next generation fighters (and Rafale dies)

So will India or France win this Game of Thrones? Will the adolescent naive Indian lad fall for the dressed up old cougar 'Rafale'?
Image

:wink:
srin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2509
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:13

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by srin »

Philip wrote:The Russian in Q was part of the FGFA team who also said that we were dithering on what we wanted to do with our part of the co-share work.It is obvious now that HAL's inability to deliver (it can't even perfect an IJT,and it had handed over FGFA work to the very same IJT team!) the goods that has led us to reduce our share of the JV.So if we want the FGFA from now on,it will be more of buying the T-50 in much the same way that we bought the MKI,with some minor tweaks."Opportunity knocks but once".

Wrong thread but Govt has for whatever reason deliberately ring-fenced FGFA from other projects. That's why a manufactureer HAL is involved and not ADA, which is roughly our equivalent of Sukhoi design bureau.
brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10694
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

If JSF orders have increased,from where have they emerged,as all available info of late has shown reduced orders from potential clients,including the US.I've posted details time and again.
Those that are proposing to reduce the orders

Italy - No definite decision on halving the order, but their current economic state pretty much guarantees a reduction in order. Yet their partnership in the program and the fact that they are going to be assembling their own jets, and some for other european customers in addition to having a facility to support european F-35's for 4 decades will more than ensure that their long term commitment to the F-35 is unquestioned.
Spain - Major economic trouble, and that they have decided on a SLEP on their harriers
Canada- An open competition, nothing known as to whether they'll go for the F-35 YET. They are also yet to reduce the numbers of fighters required so if the F-35 goes ahead in 2015 (post elections) they will buy the amount they had originally planned.
Netherlands

New confirmed orders

Japan
South Korea
Israel

While the total US numbers have remained steady. These are long term order projections therefore customers matter more than numbers. Do you think that the ROKAF would not place further orders for the F-35? given their previous buying history? Or the Japanese and the IDF for that matter. Western europe defense budgets are shrinking, this has nothing to do with the JSF but everything to do with their economies. Pacific nations need better defense and as such the modernization market has shifted form NATO to ASIA in the recent years. Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia will buy plenty of F-35's between them.
Anyway,the US has no option other than to buy it in as many numbers as it can afford.
The US has options with the F-35 deliveries. They can for example:

Hasten the F-18E/F replacement program
Hasten the F-X fighter program
Buy more F-22's
Create ++ Versions of the F-15 Silent Eagle using demonstrated capabilities such as TVC, Weapons bay, IRST21, AESA (already operational and the apg-82 in development) and vastly upgraded engines

That they are not "desperately" moving to these options suggests that the original plan on the F-35 is more than adequate to take care of the projected threat
How is the F-35 designed to replace the A-10? CAS is a task, that even the F-22 can do (though it lacks an LDP). As a matter of fact, the A-10's already being replaced by the F-16 and F-15E. So why do you keep mentioning it in the F-35's context?
Stats of permissive CAS in Afghanistan are revealing. Even the B-1 B is a valuable CAS platform.
Just as US allies are cutting down on JSF numbers,the US too,so too will we have to review the situ once the 120 are almost home
Lets look at the US plans. 100 have been delivered, with a further 40-50 in some stage of production. Long lead items for 50+ more have been delivered and further parts for 50+ is being negotiated at the moment. Despite sequester there has been NO CHANGE in the JSF number projections.
The US is so secretive about its stealth tech,that even the helmet is not being shown right now to some potential buyers
Which current partner is complaining about a lack of access to the Helmet? British pilots are flying with the helmet at the moment. Which "potential buyers" would those be? Out of the Non partner nations, the IDF, ROKAF and the Japanese have picked the F-35. All three of these are FMS deals. I am not aware of any other program at the moment where the F-35 is offered as an FMS deal where the buyer can complain of a lack of openness on the HMD.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQkm8oLPb4c[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHbXjqeAYV4[/youtube]
nrshah
BRFite
Posts: 580
Joined: 10 Feb 2009 16:36

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by nrshah »

Good that the new government is fast tracking the Rafale purchase. One Of The Best multi role fighter operational in the world. Comes with operational freedom. Besides going by superb reliability and high availability of Mirages, it will surely take IAF Capability To Next Level. Operating alongside sukhoi and tejas, it will be a force to reckon with.
For the claims of what will 2 squadrons do by 2020, ready purchase can be increased. Also we can take France offer of two squadron s of immediate lease. Further it will get foc by then and the platform will be integrated with IAF operational structure and tactics.
Don't know of any alternative better then this in hand as of now.
member_20453
BRFite
Posts: 613
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_20453 »

Well reliability of both the Rafale/Mirages are not the best, they are at best similar to the F-16s. There have been crashes (specially Mirages often in short span consecutive crashes), emergency landings. So far none can match up to the availability/reliability of the super hornet.

Also Mirages today & upgraded ones armed with Mica are no match for the Paki Block 52s armed with Aim-120C-5s. Luckily with combos on Mkis and Mig-29s we can tak the fight to the F-16s. Mirage sadly will be at the recieving end of the turkey shoot. In BVR I am not even sure the Rafale will survive the F-16. When MKIs with R-77s could easily paint Rafale during BVR enegements even while BARS was in training mode, I don't see why F-16s won't have first shot againt the Rafale in a real engagement, unless SPECTRA jam the crap out of the F-16, sure the range of the Aim-120C5 would be degraded but I think not enough to squeeze off a first shot. A ripple fire on the Rafale would spell demise.

I don't know if IAF will get the Meteor, with Astra MK-2/AESA the Rafale can take on the Paki F-16s with confidence. Meteor though tempting is a waste of money.
nrshah
BRFite
Posts: 580
Joined: 10 Feb 2009 16:36

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by nrshah »

Well I am made to believe that reliability of MIRAGE 2K is among the best in IAF stable.
With respect to comparison to F 18, specs and operating envelope is to be considered.
As with respect to Rafale not being a match to F 16, Rafale was selected by IAF over F 16 (more advanced than with PAF). I will give more credibility to IAF assessment with respect to the envisaged role and over 600 parameters over which the platforms were assessed. And yes the super reliable hornet was part of it and could not even supposedly take off from a airbase in North.
brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10694
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

There is no F-16 Variant that can effectively match the performance of the Rafale in pretty much all mission scenarios. Where the F-16 holds the edge is in weapon costs and options.
Cosmo_R
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3407
Joined: 24 Apr 2010 01:24

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Cosmo_R »

RoyG wrote:Perhaps there are other deals tied with this order which we don't know about.
You mean really 'chankian' stuff? :)
Cosmo_R
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3407
Joined: 24 Apr 2010 01:24

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Cosmo_R »

brar_w wrote:There is no F-16 Variant that can effectively match the performance of the Rafale in pretty much all mission scenarios. Where the F-16 holds the edge is in weapon costs and options.
Two questions:

1. On a 'bang for the buck' basis, how many F-16 block 60s vs. 1 Rafale both fully loaded?

2. Rafale vs Chinese J-10/11 one on one?
Kartik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5722
Joined: 04 Feb 2004 12:31

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Kartik »

Septimus P. wrote:Well reliability of both the Rafale/Mirages are not the best, they are at best similar to the F-16s. There have been crashes (specially Mirages often in short span consecutive crashes), emergency landings. So far none can match up to the availability/reliability of the super hornet.
Source for this claim? Please don’t back this with generic claims- if you have a good source using which you can state that the Mirage-2000 in IAF service has lower up times than F-16s in other services, then post that. Please do the same for the Rafale in French AF service.
Also Mirages today & upgraded ones armed with Mica are no match for the Paki Block 52s armed with Aim-120C-5s. Luckily with combos on Mkis and Mig-29s we can tak the fight to the F-16s. Mirage sadly will be at the recieving end of the turkey shoot. In BVR I am not even sure the Rafale will survive the F-16. When MKIs with R-77s could easily paint Rafale during BVR enegements even while BARS was in training mode, I don't see why F-16s won't have first shot againt the Rafale in a real engagement, unless SPECTRA jam the crap out of the F-16, sure the range of the Aim-120C5 would be degraded but I think not enough to squeeze off a first shot. A ripple fire on the Rafale would spell demise.
No match huh? Based on what? Purely the slightly longer range of the AIM-120C? So just put a longer range missile on the Mirage and it’ll be more than a match for the F-16 Block 52?
I don't know if IAF will get the Meteor, with Astra MK-2/AESA the Rafale can take on the Paki F-16s with confidence. Meteor though tempting is a waste of money.
Why? Your entire argument is based on just one thing- missile range. So if the Meteor out-ranges the AIM-120C, won’t that automatically mean (by your logic) that the Rafale would beat any other fighter that doesn’t have the Meteor or a longer range BVR missile?

We’re not even going into the much better Pk of the Meteor thanks to its powered flight throughout..I’m afraid this emphasis on just the range is a very poor way of comparing the effectiveness of a fighter and its missiles..without even considering how and where the actual engagement happens or the ECM capability of the platform being painted on radar, both of which affect missile and radar performance tremendously or other tactics that may be used to render any BVR shot at long ranges basically useless.
member_20453
BRFite
Posts: 613
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_20453 »

Not just me, the fact that Metoer, R-77M, Aim-120D seem to have long range in common is the idea behind BVR warfare. Everyone is scrambling to develop missiles with longer ranges in order to have first shot capability. Offcourse, rcs of the enemy, radars ranges to detect enemy far enough also comes into play with BVR. The Mirage and F-16 are similar in terms of radar ranges but Mica's effective ranges is not little but a lot lower than the Aim-120C-5. In a war scernario with ECM/EW on, first shot launch ranges will be degraded but the Aim-120C-5 will still be launched first. The effective range difference between Aim-120C-5 and MICA is still big enough to allow the f-16 to have an advantage even in a degraded environment.

In case of the Rafale armed with Mica and F-16, the Rafale will detect it first, I am not sure of how effective the Spectra is in jamming the F-16 but at best launch envelope will be degraded but I doubt this will prevent the f-16 from getting the first shot off. Offcourse Meteor would allow Rafale to launch virtually on detection.
member_23694
BRFite
Posts: 732
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

Septimus P. wrote:I don't know if IAF will get the Meteor, with Astra MK-2/AESA the Rafale can take on the Paki F-16s with confidence. Meteor though tempting is a waste of money.
So can i conclude based on your opinion that the IAF did not do its job properly in identifying the top fighter among the 6 available in the MMRCA competition.
My understanding is that it chose the best from the rest.
brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10694
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

Cosmo_R wrote:
Two questions:

1. On a 'bang for the buck' basis, how many F-16 block 60s vs. 1 Rafale both fully loaded?

2. Rafale vs Chinese J-10/11 one on one?
The block 60 is not a very good aircraft to compare on cost. It involved massive R&D investments on the part of the UAE to develop unique capability (Something like what we did with the MKI) and at times develop (needlessly) equipment which could have been simply been added off the shelf (just because that was being used by the IDF). The block 60 is also rather dated in some of its components. The radar for example is quite capable yet the APG-81 TR modules are a couple of generations ahead of that now and those are the modules that Northrop Grumman has put on the newest F-16 AESA that it is selling to the USAF and Taiwan.

http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabili ... fault.aspx

The Viper is however the only aircraft I know that has 2 AESA option, both fully funded and both requiring ZERO development or integration cost on part of the buyer.

That being said, most of the USAF funded upgrades in electronic warfare (falcon edge that is on the UAE birds) and the AESA are designed without totally gutting the avionics innards of the jet. This would save on cost, complexity and allow for easy retrofits. As capable as that approach is it is not the BEST capability that MONEY can put on the aircraft as the components are designed around the cooling and power generating capacity that existed on the block 50/52 birds. All in all the best upgraded F-16 (Not the Block 60 which is a specialized version specific to the UAE) is not going to cut it against the Rafale when an all round combat capability is required. The rafale also starts off with much more room to grow as far as capability is concerned while the F-16 is on its last legs in that regard. The USAF will reduce its investments into the Viper gradually after the AESA upgrade program concludes and what we'll see is just service specific upgrades (data links etc). The rafale is much ahead from that point of view as its the no. 1 defense priority for the french.

As far as the cost is concerned, the price is going to differ depending upon what package you want and what support you ask for for the jet. Morocco for example paid something like 80-90 million per block 52 F-16 that included all sorts of targeting pods, support, HMS, CFTs and what not. Add a few million for IRST21, AESA and customization (Israeli stuff). Its not going to be cheap as buying F-16's off of the line (for those that already operate the F-16 for example). That was a small order (just 25). Given the way we are looking to structure the deal even the OLD F-16 is not going to come cheap (given that we are looking for complete TOT and setting up of a production line) and given that the ROI is going to be rather poor because of the fact that the "GROWTH" capability is limited because the major FUNDING for the growth capability is going to dry up as the US buys the JSF on a massive scale.
Rafale vs Chinese J-10/11 one on one?
Rafale has a lot of KNOWN performance and capability. J-10/11 has never been evaluated by a third party against tough competition from all sources. Even then the rafale and the typhoon are the best 4.5th ten aircraft from an affordability and performance point of view (i count the su-35 in the mix as well), with the typhoon being better at A2A while the Rafale being a much better more rounded multi-role fighter.
brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10694
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

Septimus P. wrote:Not just me, the fact that Metoer, R-77M, Aim-120D seem to have long range in common is the idea behind BVR warfare. Everyone is scrambling to develop missiles with longer ranges in order to have first shot capability. Offcourse, rcs of the enemy, radars ranges to detect enemy far enough also comes into play with BVR. The Mirage and F-16 are similar in terms of radar ranges but Mica's effective ranges is not little but a lot lower than the Aim-120C-5. In a war scernario with ECM/EW on, first shot launch ranges will be degraded but the Aim-120C-5 will still be launched first. The effective range difference between Aim-120C-5 and MICA is still big enough to allow the f-16 to have an advantage even in a degraded environment.

In case of the Rafale armed with Mica and F-16, the Rafale will detect it first, I am not sure of how effective the Spectra is in jamming the F-16 but at best launch envelope will be degraded but I doubt this will prevent the f-16 from getting the first shot off. Offcourse Meteor would allow Rafale to launch virtually on detection.
Even though the missiles are getting longer legged the BVR combat is still limited to the Medium range due to a number of factors. The goal for most of these missiles is to have better PK's at medium ranges rather then take combat to Long range.
Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

nrshah wrote:Good that the new government is fast tracking the Rafale purchase. One Of The Best multi role fighter operational in the world. Comes with operational freedom. Besides going by superb reliability and high availability of Mirages, it will surely take IAF Capability To Next Level. Operating alongside sukhoi and tejas, it will be a force to reckon with.
In the same time-frame, the PLAAF will start inducting the J-31 stealth fighter at a lower cost. Which means not only will it have numerical superiority, the PLAAF will also have qualitative superiority.
For the claims of what will 2 squadrons do by 2020, ready purchase can be increased. Also we can take France offer of two squadron s of immediate lease.
Any secondary purchase or lease will have to be negotiated separately. Which means funding for the same will have to be separately allocated in addition to the MMRCA funds. And given the financial demands on the state at the moment, that's simply not feasible.
brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10694
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

We would also have to act rather fast on giving to the french our requirement from their own production line. With UAE looking at the Rafale quite seriously they may take slots away from us over and above that we have already asked the french to provide us.
nrshah
BRFite
Posts: 580
Joined: 10 Feb 2009 16:36

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by nrshah »

On the pak fa and j 35 threads, I am made to believe that it is very difficult to develop an operational 5th generation fighter. Russian which have develop 100 s of aircraft is struggling to match the standards of the American ccounter parts as claimed. But when it comes to Rafale purchase, we are made to belive that the Chinese will be churning them out in hundreds by 2020. While we doubt Russian capability to provide the definitive 5th gen air craft despite huge experience, the pass is given to Chinese who have not developed even a single 3rd gen aircraft with combat experience.

Further, even the initial roll outs may take time to be integrated into the operational structure before sending them to fight IAF Rafale which will be well integrated in IAF by then.

Also, we are also looking at 5th gen fighters for IAF in firm of pak fa and AMCA. And not every plane of PLAAF will be gen next over night.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19226
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

While we doubt Russian capability to provide the definitive 5th gen air craft despite huge experience, the pass is given to Chinese who have not developed even a single 3rd gen aircraft with combat experience
A very, very valid point ......................... IMHO.

Based on my tours around the web, here is my thinking (could be wrong):

* China actually stole such technologies. Although they have substantial capabilities, they are not their own nor do they understand what are the next step - since they stole them - for the *most* parts
* IMHO, this is why (my claim) that their planes are "over engineered". Again, since they stole, they were able to copy things, but not everything. To compensate for their lack of knowledge they have provided technologies that do not conform to "stealth" - such as the ventral fins in the J-20 (this is one example where they break the "rules" of a "5th Gen" plane).
* So, IMHO, even though China will churn "5th Gen" planes, they - IMHO - will nto make progress beyond a certain limit
* We know precious little about the Chinese - that is a huge issue


* On Russia, difficult to pin point, but two items of interest (IMHO):
1) Russia - as I see it - is not going to send their planes to fight in virgin air space, they plan on conducting their fights close to their borders - where they have ample ground based systems to assist their planes (and other assets they may be planning)
2) That is perhaps why they did not invest in a complete/full "stealth" - by their own admission - they really do not *need* a "full" "stealth" machine. *UNLIKE* others I may add
3) To design a *real* "5th Gen" machine requires FUNDS. Such a plane is a mathematical model - nothing short of that - that requires a lot of computation power. I very much doubt that Russia has such funds (reading about the US it is out right crazy) and I am not too sure if they have the computational resources *currently* either
4) My *MAIN* reason - again IMVVVHO - the rub between the IAF and the PAK-FA team. IAF is expecting a "JSF" type result in a "PAK-FA" type cost. I seriously feel that this will not work, IAF will not and cannot get what they want - too much to expect IMHO



Here is my opinion:

US >>>>> China >> India > Russia and soon to be

US >>>>> India > China > Russia

Again, this should not be viewed as a knock on *any* nation. All are capable. What is driving the scenario - as in anything - is the "need*, which generate the funds, which support the ground up effort. Any leak anywhere and the entire project is a flop.
member_23694
BRFite
Posts: 732
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

NRao wrote:Here is my opinion:

US >>>>> China >> India > Russia and soon to be

US >>>>> India > China > Russia
My understanding for 5th Gen fighter
US >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Russia>>>>>>>>>>China>>>>>India (this too seems unjustified since we don't have anything to show right now and probably till 2022 )

By 2028
US >>>>>>>>>>>Russia>>>>>>>>>>>>>China(some additional help will be received from Russia for 5th gen by then) /India (subject to condition that we have a flying AMCA with IOC by 2025, Kaveri and stealth UCAV up and running , major aerospace industrialization thanks to Rafale and Tejas Mk.2 being churned out in 100s )
Cosmo_R
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3407
Joined: 24 Apr 2010 01:24

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Cosmo_R »

Well, here's an interesting situation:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns- ... 6368.story

The west is pressuring France to cancel the 2x Mistral order. If they do, it's akin to what the US does and we should think hard if the Rafale deal takes away our strategic space at the behest of others.
brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10694
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

No matter what the french end up doing (canceling is highly unlikely) they are likely going to be the most accommodating western source we are going to get. Therefore if a superior capability (compared to the mug-35) and diversification away from the Russians is important/valued, the Rafale should be purchased.
nrshah
BRFite
Posts: 580
Joined: 10 Feb 2009 16:36

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by nrshah »

^^^
Do we need to read the article to know as to know who is applying the pressure To Block the deal. :rotfl:
Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

nrshah wrote:On the pak fa and j 35 threads, I am made to believe that it is very difficult to develop an operational 5th generation fighter. Russian which have develop 100 s of aircraft is struggling to match the standards of the American ccounter parts as claimed. But when it comes to Rafale purchase, we are made to belive that the Chinese will be churning them out in hundreds by 2020. While we doubt Russian capability to provide the definitive 5th gen air craft despite huge experience, the pass is given to Chinese who have not developed even a single 3rd gen aircraft with combat experience.
We're not comparing the J-31 to the PAK FA, F-22 or F-35. Its being compared to the Rafale.

The Rafale entered service in 2001. Nearly fifteen years ago. Of course the Chinese have been late entrants to the race so yes an upgraded Rafale is definitely competitive if not dominant vis a vis the latest PLAAF fighter i.e. the J-10B.

The J-20 and J-31 are a different story. They've been designed from ground up with stealth in mind and are entering service two decades later i.e. when the Rafale production in France is coming to a close.

(On the matter of Russians vs Chinese industries, the 90s was the 'lost decade' for Russian aviation with their traditional foe bounding ahead with programs like the F-22 and B-2. In contrast, over the same period, the Chinese industry underwent arguably the greatest leap forward since the Sino-Soviet split. Within the span of a decade they went from building obsolete MiG-21 variants to a credible 4th gen aircraft in the J-10. Plenty of members here may assume that its a lot of hype, it would be foolish to act on that presumption.)
Further, even the initial roll outs may take time to be integrated into the operational structure before sending them to fight IAF Rafale which will be well integrated in IAF by then.
Its got a very similar time-frame for induction, as per most public sources. May lag by two or three years, not much more than that. By 2020, they'll comfortably have two squadrons worth of aircraft as well.
Also, we are also looking at 5th gen fighters for IAF in firm of pak fa and AMCA. And not every plane of PLAAF will be gen next over night.
If we go by the FGFA's proposed time-frame, the Chinese will have been operating stealth fighters for almost five years before we induct our first. Their fleet will therefore be correspondingly larger as well.
brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10694
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

The Chinese road to 5th ten won't be easy. They'll be lucky to get a decent working 5th gen platform that is at best inferior to the PAKFA and the F-22/F-35 by 5.5th ten timeframe. That is not the problem. The problem is that (and this is what the Japanese fear) even at 70% of the capability their intentions and budget (huge defense budgets) are for procuring hundreds if not 1000+ of these 5th gen fighters. They also have access to the latest russian tech in the Su-35 and the S-400. What is to stop them from acquiring technology for 5th gen from Russia or PAKFA's outright if their own 5th gen programs are delayed.
member_23694
BRFite
Posts: 732
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

Viv S wrote:Its got a very similar time-frame for induction, as per most public sources. May lag by two or three years, not much more than that. By 2020, they'll comfortably have two squadrons worth of aircraft as well.
The Chinese just flew a redesigned J 20 in 2014 and want to purchase Su-35. So I am not sure if 2 squadrons of war ready J 20 with all the
other bells and whistle will be ready by 2020. Probably Russian help for engine and avionics may help in some ways to expedite.
Further having a basic J 20 up and running at the earliest will be beneficial for the Russians in terms of PAK FA sale to India :wink:
Cosmo_R
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3407
Joined: 24 Apr 2010 01:24

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Cosmo_R »

brar_w wrote:No matter what the french end up doing (canceling is highly unlikely) they are likely going to be the most accommodating western source we are going to get. Therefore if a superior capability (compared to the mug-35) and diversification away from the Russians is important/valued, the Rafale should be purchased.
Agreed. The Frenchies have made a big to do about reliability and honoring contracts. If they cancel, I would suggest some harsh penalties in the contract for unilateral abrogation.
nrshah
BRFite
Posts: 580
Joined: 10 Feb 2009 16:36

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by nrshah »

Roa sir
With due respect to your assessment and opinion, I beg pardon to differ. My submission as below

1. You have rated India ahead of Russia as of now which does not reflect the reality. We are dependent on Russia for a large number of things and not the other way round.

2. China ahead of Russia is also not correct for the moment.

3. Even outside Mic theatre, Russia has more influence then India consider ing veto.

4. That USA will always be number 1 cannot be granted. Both India and China has potential to replace them. Our r new dispensation at New Delhi has already started working in that direction. More power to them, Amen.

5. By your own admission, PAK FA not being as stealthy as J SF is not because of technological gap, but the luxury of operating in world's most dense and advanced ADS environment.

6. With all the super advanced weapons from the United States of America, Pakistan has never been able to win any war against India. All the current super weapons remains unproven and wars don't always oblige by following the rules decided by pentagon and LM.

7. That IAF is expecting some thing on lines of JSF is another wish full thinking after IAF having rejected proposal ccouple of times.

8. However I agree with you completely on one point. Neither PAKFA more JSF are going to help us climb the ladder. We have to work on AMCA to move ahead of all- Chinese, the Russians and the Americans.
nrshah
BRFite
Posts: 580
Joined: 10 Feb 2009 16:36

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by nrshah »

Viv S,

I think I could not made words convey my intent. Let me try ag a in.
I am not comparing Rafale with J 31.....JXX. That is not the point. My question is faith that you have on J series getting inducted by 20 20 in utter disregard of your own views as to challenges to develop a gen 5 aircraft. Lost decade is a decade old thing and world has changed a lot after that. Very recently there were no dearth of people suspecting if PAK FA will ever fly. However, as we discuss, it had entered state acceptance testing. There is little or no information about state of the chinese babies. Besides, if at all they some how manage to get J 31 operational by 20 20, we can acquire both PAK FA or JSF to counter.
Ok let us also under stand what alternative apart from Rafale is available. I don't find any better alternative. Please suggest if you can think of any.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19226
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

My understanding for 5th Gen fighter
When I made those comparisons I was referring to only the design aspect of a "5th Gen" plane.



Having said that I have read in a few places that the "5th Gen" plane is dictated by the engine (so are other planes I would think), but I have no clue why that is so.
brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10694
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

NRao wrote:
My understanding for 5th Gen fighter
When I made those comparisons I was referring to only the design aspect of a "5th Gen" plane.



Having said that I have read in a few places that the "5th Gen" plane is dictated by the engine (so are other planes I would think), but I have no clue why that is so.

Almost every fighter design is dictated by propulsion availability and capability of a nation. Simply put, you cannot be ambitious with an aircraft design without knowing that you have a robust propulsion capability to make up for things like weight increase, power requirement increase etc. In terms of 5th gen engines, you need higher dry thrust as a proportion of overall thrust compared to previous engine designs, you need engines that can still run well within an airframe designs for LO, such as with S-ducts, blockers etc. IR signature management against brings the engines into play.
krishnan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7342
Joined: 07 Oct 2005 12:58
Location: 13° 04' N , 80° 17' E

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by krishnan »

something going on regarding this tender , tatas are scaling up , and are preparing to start assembling fighter aircraft
Retweeted by Mallikarjuna
Sanat Sankrityayan ‏@sanatsan 8m

Tata Advanced Systems Ltd scales up operations across its seven lines of mfg., prepares to bid for building full aircraft in the next 3-5 yr
Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

nrshah wrote:Viv S,

I think I could not made words convey my intent. Let me try ag a in.
I am not comparing Rafale with J 31.....JXX. That is not the point. My question is faith that you have on J series getting inducted by 20 20 in utter disregard of your own views as to challenges to develop a gen 5 aircraft.
The F-35 will achieve Block 3F capability some 6 months after the USAF IOC. In one stroke or rather software upgrade, well over 200 F-35s will achieve full spec combat capability.

In case of the J-31 and PAK FA they don't need to be at F-35 levels of technology or maturity to go into production or even enter service. By the end of the decade you can be sure the Chinese J-20/31 production will match HAL aircraft for aircraft (most likely exceed it). So by the time, IAF starts to induct 5th gen fighters, the RuAF and PLAAF will have operated them for several years.
Lost decade is a decade old thing and world has changed a lot after that. Very recently there were no dearth of people suspecting if PAK FA will ever fly. However, as we discuss, it had entered state acceptance testing. There is little or no information about state of the chinese babies.
The 'lost decade' brought Chinese into spitting distance of the Russian industry with the notable exception of propulsion tech.
Besides, if at all they some how manage to get J 31 operational by 20 20, we can acquire both PAK FA or JSF to counter.


There's a saying - hope for the best, plan for the worst.

Unfortunately, we'll never know how many they have operational and what manner of service. And if we wake up only in 2020, the ship will already have sailed with no catching up likely.
Ok let us also under stand what alternative apart from Rafale is available. I don't find any better alternative. Please suggest if you can think of any.
First, its foolishness to be manufacturing a 4.5G aircraft at 5G prices in 2025. Make no mistake, that's where our current plan takes us.

There are plenty of alternatives -

- Set up an additional Tejas production line and increase Mk1 orders.
- Order six to nine ERJ-145 based AEW&C units.
- Sanction the A-330 acquisition with options for another six units.
- Order additional Su-30MKIs off-the-shelf from Russia.
- Pursue second hand Mirage 2000s from Qatar and UAE.
- Pursue second hand Mig-29s from Hungary.
- Pursue second hand EF T1s from UK.
- Examine a limited number of MiG-35s from Russia if the price is right (though I doubt it will be).
- Examine a Gripen C/E lease from Sweden.
-

With the first three of the above being essential, that'll suffice for our immediate requirements.

To supplement that we can order six squadrons off-the-shelf of F-35s or PAK FAs with delivery starting 2018 or so. In the PAK FA's case we can opt for license assembly (if its likely to be significantly cheaper), though there's no need to splurge on ToT.

That'll still leave a boat load of capital left over from a Rafale cancellation to invest into the AMCA (and possibly even a Tejas Mk3).
Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

krishnan wrote:something going on regarding this tender , tatas are scaling up , and are preparing to start assembling fighter aircraft
Retweeted by Mallikarjuna
Sanat Sankrityayan ‏@sanatsan 8m

Tata Advanced Systems Ltd scales up operations across its seven lines of mfg., prepares to bid for building full aircraft in the next 3-5 yr
The reference is to the Sikorsky S-92 which Sikorsky is building in a JV with TASL.
abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3090
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by abhik »

^^^
I think it has got more to do with the light transport aircraft tender.
Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

abhik wrote:^^^
I think it has got more to do with the light transport aircraft tender.
prepares to bid for building full aircraft in the next 3-5 yr

You must be right.
member_23694
BRFite
Posts: 732
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

the latest image from Tarmak007 FB site for Rafale and Su-30 is really amazing . Su-30 looks likes an airliner while Rafale an executive jet :) .
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19226
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

Image


Image
Post Reply