India Border Watch: Security and Operations

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khan
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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby khan » 29 May 2020 22:34

veejey wrote:https://twitter.com/ajaishukla/status/1266398081458700288?s=19


manjgu wrote:https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/1266402675807191043


Two very different narratives:
(a) based on civilian satellite images, interpreted by amateur’s (remember hole in roof fiasco), “Nothing to worry about”
(b) Former military people, with experience and connections saying “be very worried”

I am going with (b).

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Manish_Sharma » 29 May 2020 23:01

Roop wrote:

The problem is, I think that there are still large numbers of Indians in the decision-making class (neta / babu / mantri types, internet bloggers etc.) who feel deeply insulted at the very notion that India needs allies to achieve its goals.



UK/US won't be allies ever, through cismoa type treaties they tie us up and make us indirect colony. Remember how Ally Pakistan's f16 were sanctioned in 80s? Any Kerry, Bernie, sleeping joe, Chelsea clinton become president and sanction or threaten to sanction us if we don't do as they COMMAND us to.

French are just expensive sellers not allies, they're lobbying hard in EU & NATO to lift ban on selling arms to China. Germany already ToT sold MAN submarine engines to China.

Putin is already a bitch of Xi.

We are on our own. Only mass production of indigenous platforms and weapons can save us. Mort Walker is right.

Last decade UAE bought f16 for 145million per fighter.

Is ally USA going to sell us same f16 for 20 million dollars per plane, so we can buy 189 of them?

West is an albino white snake and is nobody's friend or ally.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby fanne » 29 May 2020 23:06

Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER
________________________

@SJha1618
China's 'semi-official' media is again talking about how China's GDP is 5 times that of India etc. while blaming India for the confrontation. They think they can win without firing a shot. This is perhaps what they need to be disabused of once and for all.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/126 ... 67904?s=19

Given the nature of the Himalayan frontier, contact warfare between infantry units is a given. Here China's great GDP, progress etc. will matter much much less than whose soldiers are more battle-hardened, better acclimatized & more experienced in mountain operations.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/126 ... 38050?s=19



I believe Indian GDP is 10 times of of Pakistan GDP. Can the tallel than sea and deepel than mountain friend ask Pakistani to surrender to India? If not then chinis can write chini gdp is 5 times of Indian GDP, fold the paper, make a batti and shove it where the sun doesn't shine. If that also does not take away their fear then go and hide under their momma skirt OR be a man and come fight!! We have 1962 to avenge!!

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chetonzz » 29 May 2020 23:17

khan wrote:
veejey wrote:https://twitter.com/ajaishukla/status/1266398081458700288?s=19


manjgu wrote:https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/1266402675807191043


Two very different narratives:
(a) based on civilian satellite images, interpreted by amateur’s (remember hole in roof fiasco), “Nothing to worry about”
(b) Former military people, with experience and connections saying “be very worried”

I am going with (b).


May we should wait for adgpi statement and nothing more...

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby khan » 30 May 2020 00:00

^ Don’t think there will be any ADGPI statement unless the balloon goes up. We will just have to read tea leaves until then.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby fanne » 30 May 2020 00:08

khan wrote:
veejey wrote:https://twitter.com/ajaishukla/status/1266398081458700288?s=19


manjgu wrote:https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/1266402675807191043


Two very different narratives:
(a) based on civilian satellite images, interpreted by amateur’s (remember hole in roof fiasco), “Nothing to worry about”
(b) Former military people, with experience and connections saying “be very worried”

I am going with (b).


Khan sahib - I have learned the hard way but a truth in Gold - When hearing from someone, the foremost thing that matter is the intent, the niyat and then the message (though there are many I have heard would say, listen to the message, what's with the messenger). If the Niyat does not pass the dharma test, no point going ahead, is that person knowledgeable or skilled or intelligent or logical ……
If the Niyat is bad, the same knowledge/experience etc. is in the wrong direction, just opposite of where it should be. It does not matter, it is WRONG!!

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Raveen » 30 May 2020 00:16

fanne wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER
________________________

@SJha1618
China's 'semi-official' media is again talking about how China's GDP is 5 times that of India etc. while blaming India for the confrontation. They think they can win without firing a shot. This is perhaps what they need to be disabused of once and for all.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/126 ... 67904?s=19

Given the nature of the Himalayan frontier, contact warfare between infantry units is a given. Here China's great GDP, progress etc. will matter much much less than whose soldiers are more battle-hardened, better acclimatized & more experienced in mountain operations.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/126 ... 38050?s=19



I believe Indian GDP is 10 times of of Pakistan GDP. Can the tallel than sea and deepel than mountain friend ask Pakistani to surrender to India? If not then chinis can write chini gdp is 5 times of Indian GDP, fold the paper, make a batti and shove it where the sun doesn't shine. If that also does not take away their fear then go and hide under their momma skirt OR be a man and come fight!! We have 1962 to avenge!!



and 1967 to repeat

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Mort Walker » 30 May 2020 00:54

You have to use PPP GDP instead of nominal GDP which is subject to artificial exchange rates. The difference between India and China is nearly 3 times. What the Chinese have is a vast manufacturing base where they can put material and significant logistics chain up for a prolonged conflict or war. India can do the same to TSP, but has deliberately crippled itself.

GDPs in trillions:
India = $10
China = $27
TSP = $1.2

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Manish_Sharma » 30 May 2020 01:01

hs panag is same way as ajay shukla both hate BJP and Modi. panag is aap supporter, while shukla congi.... take them with truckload of salt.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 30 May 2020 01:04

My assessment is that we should hold firm on Chinese side and beat the crap out of Pak army to reclaim PoK. This has greater strategic value since we would effectively block CPEC and keep China at bay while we do this. Also creating a separation between China and Pakistan (potentially create the state of Balochistan) could be hugely useful to India. Have Central Asia access, create a friendly neighbor for Afghanistan, cut Pakistan in half and maintain enough troop presence to keep China at ay. Once this is resolved, we can move our attention to China and start to push them back on the Tibet and Taiwan front. I had a chance to sleep on the current tactical moves and this makes sense.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 30 May 2020 01:09

It doesn't matter if 10K troops are inside or outside. Our job was to make the Chini a "global bully", which seems to have worked like a charm.

Chinese invasion was all over the news and SM. Now this is the point. Either the Chinese fight us with no surety of a good result (& loose face) OR withdraw (& loose face). If they are inside, we will fight. If they are outside, we will tell everyone the Chinis went back with their tail..

Our useful idiots in the media have managed to create a wonderful firestorm with "5000", then with "10000" etc.

Even the Time fell in it reported about "Chinese invasion with 5000 troops"..

It is bash CCP season.. we just added our litre or kerosene..

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby ldev » 30 May 2020 01:40

fanne wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER
________________________

@SJha1618
China's 'semi-official' media is again talking about how China's GDP is 5 times that of India etc. while blaming India for the confrontation. They think they can win without firing a shot. This is perhaps what they need to be disabused of once and for all.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/126 ... 67904?s=19

Given the nature of the Himalayan frontier, contact warfare between infantry units is a given. Here China's great GDP, progress etc. will matter much much less than whose soldiers are more battle-hardened, better acclimatized & more experienced in mountain operations.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/126 ... 38050?s=19



I believe Indian GDP is 10 times of of Pakistan GDP. Can the tallel than sea and deepel than mountain friend ask Pakistani to surrender to India? If not then chinis can write chini gdp is 5 times of Indian GDP, fold the paper, make a batti and shove it where the sun doesn't shine. If that also does not take away their fear then go and hide under their momma skirt OR be a man and come fight!! We have 1962 to avenge!!


Not strictly relevant for this thread but cutting through clutter, India's bugbear has been lack of money to buy new equipment, whether for the Air Force, Army or Navy. Of the Rs 470,000 crore defence budget, Rs 113,000 crores has been earmarked for capital purchases i.e. roughly $ 15 billion. By comparison China has a defence budget of ~$180 billion. 40% of that, $70 billion is for capital purchases. So China's capital purchase budget is more than India's total defence budget.

Second, no other major country in the world spends as much on armed forces pay and pensions as India as a percentage of it's defence budget. China spends 30% of it's total defence budget on armed forces pay, 40% on new equipment and 30% on training and maintenance. India by contrast spends 50% of it's total defence budget on pay and pension and only 25% on new equipment. That is why there is a constant shortage of funds to buy new fighters, air tankers, AEWCs, navy warships etc.

China is trying to actively reduce it's armed forces headcount to make it a leaner and more modernized force. The Chinese armed forces which were traditionally PLA heavy in terms of the headcount has for the first time got more airmen and sailors in the PLAN and PLAAF. The PLA now accounts for less than 50% of the total headcount. This reduction has enabled them to devote ever more funds to buy more fighters, bombers, aircraft carriers, missiles etc.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby abhik » 30 May 2020 02:11

nam wrote:It doesn't matter if 10K troops are inside or outside. Our job was to make the Chini a "global bully", which seems to have worked like a charm.

Chinese invasion was all over the news and SM. Now this is the point. Either the Chinese fight us with no surety of a good result (& loose face) OR withdraw (& loose face). If they are inside, we will fight. If they are outside, we will tell everyone the Chinis went back with their tail..

Our useful idiots in the media have managed to create a wonderful firestorm with "5000", then with "10000" etc.

Even the Time fell in it reported about "Chinese invasion with 5000 troops"..

It is bash CCP season.. we just added our litre or kerosene..

True that, project the image of chicom hordes invading from mountains overrunning allies, forcing them to plan operation chromite 2 :) .

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Suresh S » 30 May 2020 03:09

Manish sharma,s analysis is on the money. Fanne sahib absolutely right. if the intent or ethics are wrong than intelligence/knowledge/skills are all useless they will go in the wrong direction always.Speaking from up/close and personal experience

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby fanne » 30 May 2020 03:38

The point being that money is needed to buy equipment and fight is correct, right, logical. No one is pointing against it. It was just a rhetorical answer to equally rhetorical question of some people who were saying since our PPP is 1/3rd of China, lets shiver and surrender, I merely pointed out, on the same logic we are 10 times bigger than paki, you do not see them shivering and surrendering. Our when the Chinese fought American in the Korean war, American GDP was perhaps 50 times of Chinese, and these single babies of their mama and papa did not go around arguing, surrender!!

Our defense budget is very less compared to China. But the analysis that is posted above is at best superficial. Let's make some deeper dives (and I am no army men, mere a oracle wala sitting in front of computer with some time on a Friday evening and access to internet). So TFWIW.

China higher budget goes against many things - Army, Air, Navy, missiles.....Most of it is in the eastern seaboard, and not all of it can be transferred to Tibet even if wanted. Certainly not the Navy (and what will happen in IOR, we will discuss a little later), fixed air defenses in east, many tanks and artillery, bridge laying equipment etc.

The only thing that matters is what equipment and men (and at what cost) can the two countries bring in the Himalayas. From Indian side I will assume that it is a 2 front war.
There are apparently 9 places where we can clash, 31 passes along the Himalayan border and some other features where a airborne assult can be launched.
It is not like Indo-Pak Border, where we can perhaps clash at 1000 places and here having a big army makes a difference. In theory if we had 10 million army and paki's only the current .7 million, we can start fight at any of these 1000 places and be defensive against the fronts that have these .7 million Paki army. But if suppose there was only 1 front possible, the advantage of having 10 million to .7 million would be meaningless. All paki have to do is defend that one front with their .7 million men. Depending on how big the front is, India could at best use a fraction of its 10 million in theory army.
In the same way, 3 times higher GDP and 'rich' Chinese army can deploy only so many men and material at these limited fronts (even if it fights simultaneously at all 31 passes and some other opportunities that it can generate).
In theory China can deploy 32 divisions in Tibet (32*25,000 = 8 lakh soldiers). Tibet population is 31 Lakh distributed over a decent land size. That land is a desert, high altitude, it cannot support 25% more population, even if these 32 division did not move with civilians supporting them. They all will be mostly near the border (say border and some 50 KM back), which perhaps currently would have 1 lakh population (because that is how much the land and river could support). That part cannot support 8 times its population. If the PLA sits in Lhasa, what good is that to tehm. Now if they come just with guns, what good is their 3 times high GDP and big defense budget? If they bring the many tanks and artillery and BMPs, where will they place them? How will they get the fuel and other supplies? The road to Doklam is one narrow one, so is the one in Tawang. The tanks will be stacked one over the other? And what will the IA and IAF be doing - Dhoti shibbering or running excel model of GDP numbers and then again dhoti shibbering some more?

Lets get the real strength of Chinese and Indian forces. The mountainous region, our communication lines are numerous plus very short, few 100s of kilometer. The Chinese have to haul everything from 2000 km to Arunachal and 4000 km to Leh. Their stuff is already 4-5 times costly, gun for gun and bullet for bullet. Plus they have one major highway connecting Arunachal to Leh, running laterally few 100 km from border. I am sure that mountainous road would have many bridges and choke points, that we can destroy to complicate their logistics. Similarly they have limited road and rail (one) that gets material from mainland to its colony. Yes they can definitely fight with what they have stored, but if they move a bigger army it had to be supplied year around, even in winters when the passes become unpassable. Their richness will show up in higher artillery or tanks, then other wise possible, but we have also put equivalent number and only 1-2 places can have armored clashes, I am no expert, do not know how big is the front, but if it is not wide, then having 200 or 2000 tanks will make very marginal difference. Artillery should be game changer and you can perhaps put many around and concentrate. We shelled quarter million shells in Kargil to kill 800 TSP troops (and many died from air action and other reasons), What will it do to well dug up, defensive positions (and we will be countering it). Supporting artillery will be logistic nightmare and small numbers are expected to be in play (but yes a much richer army can afford to field more).
MRBMs and SRBMs just deploy a didly 500 kg to 1000 kg warhead (A Jaguar will carry 2-3 times that number), we did 3 1000kg in Balakot. The missiles have high CEP for a hardened target. The IAF hangers are made to with stand direct hit from 2000 kg warhead. They will cause damage, and a 3 times more GDP will give them the ability to perhaps fire many of them. It will make little difference to bunkers or hardened hangers, but will be effective against open targets like fuel dumps, ammo dumps, hangers etc. To counter them we have our highly accurate Brahmos. We both can perhaps field equal numbers of precise cruise/ballistic missiles to target each other.

They only have 6 air bases, few of them within 50 km of Border (or all within Brahmos range). At least the sat pic shows none of these have hardened hangers (please correct). At most these can field some 150-200 planes. Yes a 3 times higher GDP PLAF can perhaps put their best 200 planes (and keep on replacing them when it loses them). In Air to air fight, I guess they may not need any extra training, but their pilots will need training in interdiction in mountainous regions (we have been doing it since Kargil) and operating from high altitude airfields. I would assume each side will have a go at each other airfields using BM/CM, we have many, hardened. I would expect IAF to gain air superiority and then make mincemeat of Chinese fabled 3 times higher GDP tanks and artillery (the intent has been shown by using the planes).

PLAAN has to travel 7000 km to reach Andman Nicobar. Some 6-7 days of sailing. It can do through only 3 points, one that is nearest that we can choke. Against this, we may have lesser number of ships (if PLAAN decides to send all its ships). I am sure to get intelligence related help from USA and these ships will be within IAF reach (remember the loan SU 30 MKI squardron in south with Brahmos?). Between a ship and a plane, it is no contest, even the mighty Bismark was sunk by a very obsolete plane during ww2. Currently PLAAN air asset that can come till Andman is 0.

Overall, their 3 times GDP doesn't look very scary. And war does not get won or lost by GDP and the equipment that GDP can buy (though yes equipments count and we have no reason to neglect the forces). In the last few years we have stocked on war reserves, and added quite a number of mountain divisions in the last 15 years.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby darshan » 30 May 2020 04:03

Chinese can generate lot of internal threats, espionage, sabotage, etc. within India. Probably India can do something similar to a degree using Tibet natives.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Suresh S » 30 May 2020 04:12

Ultimately wars are won by men not machines. That south shore of pangong tso is sacred ground for Indian army. Major shaitan singh and 13th Kumaon and charlie company,s soul is resting there.Man simply the memory of the major,s name brings tears and goose bumps .

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby suryag » 30 May 2020 06:14

Was searching for info on 22 special group as they were ringing in my mind given the current situation

https://elitepredators.wordpress.com/2016/08/24/special-group-or-22-sf-or-the-mavericks-2/ - not sure how much of this is true

The thing is quite strange that why one of the most secret special operation units of the world agreed to train a newly formed unit of other nation which can cause damage to their covert game capabilities, the answer lies in the history when the heroic rescue by Mossad and Israeli Special Forces in Entebbe, Uganda where terrorist hijacked an Air France aircraft, at that it is believed that R&AW helped Mossad to get precise and precious intelligence to base the operation but the involvement of India remain a secret cause that time India don’t want to upset its Arab Allies and in the gratitude of the support provided by India in the operation Entebbe they trained our officers in various counter-terrorist and espionage skills they were trained for 22 days in various counter-terror ops, in different environments.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby arshyam » 30 May 2020 08:18

fanne-ji, excellent post. I just wanted to point out one thing about the naval threat - we are not that dependent on the US for naval intel - our own satellites can do a lot of tracking over open ocean, and then we have all that MPA equipment for choke points like the Malacca (the MAD on the P8I can be very effective to look for subs in such areas). When it comes to dependencies, sure, US inputs would help, and so would Singapore's, Vietnam's, etc. The latter countries sit astride the shortest path to India, and we have close relations with these countries. But while any such inputs would not be publicly disclosed by either them or us, we seem to have to some active engagement mechanisms that hopefully could yield something.

Having said that, I feel that in situations like this the IN has a point about needing more carriers - deploying a group near the southern Indian ocean would help us project force, not to mention showing the flag in other places like the Indo-China Sea (ICS). Though I am not a fan of the US style super-carriers the IN has been hankering after of late, I think a couple more of Vikrant sized carriers wouldn't do any harm.

But I don't stop there - IN needs more subs also, though, strangely, they don't seem to be asking. The reason for this is that we cannot discount the Chinese sub threat - all it would take is a single sub that somehow manages to sneak into the BoB area and our Navy would have to fully focus on hunting it down. Same goes for the reverse - one nuke boat of ours can play cat-and-mouse with their ICS fleet very effectively. At the end of the day, if we want to poke the dragon, we need assets that could go into the ICS to balance the threat asymmetry - they can't keep needling us in the border that is relatively closer to our economic centers, while their own cities are very far away. Subs during such times could play an effective role, even if on the quiet.

So, while our Army and Air Force are relatively well equipped to defend our territory, without a corresponding Naval strength, we cannot deter the Chinese from repeatedly playing this game. We need the ability to impose cost on them, and if need be, cause public loss of face. Modi has to the find the money for this, there are no two ways about it.

fanne wrote:And what will the IA and IAF be doing - Dhoti shibbering or running excel model of GDP numbers and then again dhoti shibbering some more?
:rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby YashG » 30 May 2020 09:19

khan wrote:Couple of news articles indicate that this is still a serious issue:

China believes India wants Aksai Chin back. PLA has likely secured 40-60 sq km in Ladakh - LT GEN H S PANAG (RETD)

At the outset, let me be very categoric — just like in 1962, 1965, and 1999, we have once again been surprised both at the strategic and tactical levels. The manner in which we had to rush reinforcements from other sectors gives a clear indication that we were surprised. At the strategic level, it was the failure of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) to detect the build-up of the PLA formations from the rear bases to replace the border defence units. Our tactical surveillance with UAVs and patrols has been inadequate to detect this large-scale movement close to the LAC.


No de-escalation in China stand-off

NEW DELHI: There are no signs of any de-escalation in the almost month-long confrontation between Indian and Chinese troops in eastern Ladakh, even as the top Army brass took stock of the "ground situation" with fresh inputs from the military operations and intelligence directorates here on Thursday.


To me it seems like all the nice things the Chinese Ambassador was saying was just a way to settle things down and let China consolidate their new claim line.


Happy to take this with a gunny bag of salt. But verifying or debunking it with satellite photos shouldn't be much of a problem? Between various people who have done satellite analysis - raj47, nr008 and others - someone should have a clear answer. Its not like this is unverifiable.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Deans » 30 May 2020 09:38

Lt Gen. Panang has become another Ajai Shukla, once his daughter joined AAP. The only useful info from him, in this context, is because he served in Ladakh and did pioneering work in the deployment of mechanised forces there.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby manjgu » 30 May 2020 09:55

YashG wrote:
khan wrote:Couple of news articles indicate that this is still a serious issue:

China believes India wants Aksai Chin back. PLA has likely secured 40-60 sq km in Ladakh - LT GEN H S PANAG (RETD)



No de-escalation in China stand-off



To me it seems like all the nice things the Chinese Ambassador was saying was just a way to settle things down and let China consolidate their new claim line.


Happy to take this with a gunny bag of salt. But verifying or debunking it with satellite photos shouldn't be much of a problem? Between various people who have done satellite analysis - raj47, nr008 and others - someone should have a clear answer. Its not like this is unverifiable.



What i have understood is the following: there is a indian claim line there is a chini claim line and so there is a area which is claimed by both..the chinis at best are in this intersecting/claimed by both sides area. So technically its "ashwathama ( haathi) is dead' situation. Pappu, shooklaw is claiming ingress into india ( correct is one sense) and also untrue in one sense. a good friend of mine staying in a village enroute Pangong tells me of stupendous movement of forces ( he is himself an ex Ladhak scouts chap) and lot of air activity. Sir ji ( as he addresses me) kal to 2 bada pankha wala heli bhi dekha ...

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chola » 30 May 2020 10:30

https://theprint.in/opinion/china-believes-india-wants-aksai-chin-back-thats-why-it-has-crossed-lac-in-ladakh/430899/


China believes India wants Aksai Chin back. PLA has likely secured 40-60 sq km in Ladakh

Ladakh is the only area where physical military collusion can take place between Pakistan and China.


LT GEN H S PANAG (RETD)
28 May, 2020 12:57 pm IST

...

The likely military aim of China is to stop the development of our border infrastructure in Ladakh that threatens Aksai Chin and National Highway (NH) 219, particularly in Galwan , Hot Springs and Pangong Tso sectors, and depending on our reaction, to be prepared for a limited border skirmish.

...


If this is correct then we have to muster there. They are scared that we will take Aksai Chin? Well they f-ing should anyways because it belongs to India.

And this is also where any collusion with the pakis will take place. Any chance of the pigs and lizards linking up must be sundered.

The crux is this. No matter what we do now, they will suspect things anyways. And I would be upset if the IA didn't plan, not only for the eventual recovery of Aksai Chin, but to annihilate this threat of collusion between Pakistan and Cheen.

We have to speed up infrastructure in Ladakh and mass enough troops to make it happen. The chinis might fight if they think NH219 might be cut off. If they fight then we have to cut that very road off, recover Aksai Chin and separate Cheen from Pakistan. It has to be done. If we don't the two front war scenario centering on Ladakh remains too dangerous for us.

This article made things absolutely clear to me.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby anupamd » 30 May 2020 11:00

http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2020/05 ... o.html?m=1

This article has a picture of Indian Army transporting Arjun Mk1 MBT near Indo China LAC. If true, this is a good boost for Arjun.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby arshyam » 30 May 2020 11:11

https://theprint.in/opinion/china-believes-india-wants-aksai-chin-back-thats-why-it-has-crossed-lac-in-ladakh/430899/


China believes India wants Aksai Chin back. PLA has likely secured 40-60 sq km in Ladakh

Ladakh is the only area where physical military collusion can take place between Pakistan and China.


LT GEN H S PANAG (RETD)
28 May, 2020 12:57 pm IST

...

The likely military aim of China is to stop the development of our border infrastructure in Ladakh that threatens Aksai Chin and National Highway (NH) 219, particularly in Galwan , Hot Springs and Pangong Tso sectors, and depending on our reaction, to be prepared for a limited border skirmish.

...

NH-219, really? Since when did NHAI take ownership of Chinese-built roads? This may seem like nit-picking, but usually military chaps are more precise about details - to the extent of writing a two-digit 05 instead of just 5 - so calling the Chinese-build highway G-219 as NH-219 - not once, but multiple times in the article definitely sounds odd. Also, there actually is an NH-219 - between Bihar and UP.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby arshyam » 30 May 2020 11:12

chola wrote:The crux is this. No matter what we do now, they will suspect things anyways. And I would be upset if the IA didn't plan, not only for the eventual recovery of Aksai Chin, but to annihilate this threat of collusion between Pakistan and Cheen.

Exactly - so what is different this time?

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby arshyam » 30 May 2020 11:18

Had posted this in the politics thread, but forgot to cross-post here and get some opinions...

arshyam wrote:<snip>
why did Nepal suddenly start a border issue, which was quickly followed by the chinese doing their nautanki? Has it got anything to do with the fact that the Lipulekh pass on the India-Nepal-Tibet tri-junction is a mere 70km from the vital G-219 highway in Tibet (as the crow flies), and hardly 15km from the S-207 highway which links Tibet and Nepal? (15km is well within artillery range, and a well developed road enables us to move units and ammo that much more effectively). So are the Chinese feeling a reverse Doklam here, and as is usual with them, start a fire elsewhere to distract us? <snip>

Any thoughts on the highlighted part - ? In the eyes of the Chinese, would Nepal laying claim to Lipulekh pass and occupying it at some point* secure their routes in the area from Indian threat..?

* Not that we'll allow it since it is our territory and we possess it, but am trying to think from the Chinese PoV.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sridhar K » 30 May 2020 11:49

@Arshyam exactly the same thought especially having travelled by S207 after crossing over from Hilsa in Nepal by foot. Unlike the Tibet side where China has a perfect road to the border, the Hilsa border was reachable only by Heli ( as we did) or 2 day Trek from Simikot in Nepal. Similar story on Lipuleh side until now. The new road changes the equation.It also opens up possibility of future armoured thrust into Tibet from UK. Gurus may correct

On a different note, As per the local Nepali tour operator, China wanted to extend the all weather road inside Nepal and India was not allowing it. He was angrily asking us why India was doing it as it will improve quality of life in these area of Nepal. The all weather road to Lipuleh will impact NepalI Tourism industry as huge number of pilgrims visit Kailash Manasarovar via Nepal than through the official India channel via Lipuleh and or Nathu La

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby YashG » 30 May 2020 12:08

Manish_Sharma wrote:hs panag is same way as ajay shukla both hate BJP and Modi. panag is aap supporter, while shukla congi.... take them with truckload of salt.


So much salt and so little satellite analysis based facts.
Sorry do not take it otherwise. I really wish to see objective sat analysis.

And if it is Kargil2.0 then let's go ahead full fire. Cost of war is high for India but nearly unaffordable for China.
After a war with us China will be thoroughly bent by US. They will never go full hog with us.

Loads of powerful indian Americans will be our wildcard, bringing help during And post war. In all strategic calculations, we need to bring into calculations that when a push comes to a shove how will our powerful diaspora come into play.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Yagnasri » 30 May 2020 12:11

darshan wrote:What was Genghis' GDP vs Chinese doll dynasty?


I raised almost the same point earlier sirji. But dhothi shivers do not stop. What to do.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby manjgu » 30 May 2020 12:18

Sridhar K wrote:@Arshyam exactly the same thought especially having travelled by S207 after crossing over from Hilsa in Nepal by foot. Unlike the Tibet side where China has a perfect road to the border, the Hilsa border was reachable only by Heli ( as we did) or 2 day Trek from Simikot in Nepal. Similar story on Lipuleh side until now. The new road changes the equation.It also opens up possibility of future armoured thrust into Tibet from UK. Gurus may correct

On a different note, As per the local Nepali tour operator, China wanted to extend the all weather road inside Nepal and India was not allowing it. He was angrily asking us why India was doing it as it will improve quality of life in these area of Nepal. The all weather road to Lipuleh will impact NepalI Tourism industry as huge number of pilgrims visit Kailash Manasarovar via Nepal than through the official India channel via Lipuleh and or Nathu La


how can india protest a road between Nepal And china reaching Hilsa ( nepal) ? further, if there is not a road ahead of Lipulekh connecting to the chini highway , how will it impact Nepali tourism ( unless people will trek from lipukekh pass onwards towards Mansarovar?) confused....

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Mort Walker » 30 May 2020 12:21

fanne wrote:The point being that money is needed to buy equipment and fight is correct, right, logical. No one is pointing against it. It was just a rhetorical answer to equally rhetorical question of some people who were saying since our PPP is 1/3rd of China, lets shiver and surrender, I merely pointed out, on the same logic we are 10 times bigger than paki, you do not see them shivering and surrendering. Our when the Chinese fought American in the Korean war, American GDP was perhaps 50 times of Chinese, and these single babies of their mama and papa did not go around arguing, surrender!!


The GDP comparison is only relevant when your enemy has invested in their MIC like the Chinese. Arms sanctions actually helped the Chinese as they reformed their economy and ramped up their MIC in the last 30 years. In 1950, the Soviets provided the nuclear and strategic umbrella to the Chinese, so your analogy is not relevant in this instance.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chetak » 30 May 2020 12:34

Deans wrote:Lt Gen. Panang has become another Ajai Shukla, once his daughter joined AAP. The only useful info from him, in this context, is because he served in Ladakh and did pioneering work in the deployment of mechanised forces there.


I had posted this earlier in the political thread.

I think that the hans were expecting some sort of a walkover once again.

this time, they have coordinated with the pakis and nepalese to coerce India on virtually three fronts.

Does anyone have any idea of what is the nepalese army view of this land grab effort against India.

The nepalese commie cadres were inducted into the nepalese army in large numbers when pushpa kamal dahal grabbed power and used these cadres to termite his way into the power ecosystem. He had large numbers of his cadres in the army, being fed, clothed, sheltered and paid for by the state and also he kept a close watch on the army itself to insure against coup attempts against himself.


IANS Tweets@ians_india
Even as the Central government has never admitted it, #China had occupied 640 sq km of Indian territory in Eastern #Ladakh during the second term of the #UPA regime under Prime Minister #ManmohanSingh.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chetak » 30 May 2020 12:41

Mort Walker wrote:
fanne wrote:The point being that money is needed to buy equipment and fight is correct, right, logical. No one is pointing against it. It was just a rhetorical answer to equally rhetorical question of some people who were saying since our PPP is 1/3rd of China, lets shiver and surrender, I merely pointed out, on the same logic we are 10 times bigger than paki, you do not see them shivering and surrendering. Our when the Chinese fought American in the Korean war, American GDP was perhaps 50 times of Chinese, and these single babies of their mama and papa did not go around arguing, surrender!!


The GDP comparison is only relevant when your enemy has invested in their MIC like the Chinese. Arms sanctions actually helped the Chinese as they reformed their economy and ramped up their MIC in the last 30 years. In 1950, the Soviets provided the nuclear and strategic umbrella to the Chinese, so your analogy is not relevant in this instance.


It is not so much the weapon itself as it is the man behind it.

are you really expecting India to keep quiet now like they did all through the congi years

short or long war, the hans will pay a much bigger price with the post war scenario of the larger part of the world polarized against the chinese and the hans being squeezed from every direction.

or do you think that the hans will insist and continue to access global markets under the threat of their han guns.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sridhar K » 30 May 2020 13:01

@manjgu
1. Per them India was armtwisting the Nepali Govt. through various levers ( this was in 2015) in not allowing China to build roads into Nepal while China has been offering help. Currently S207 runs till the Nepal border till Hilsa. There is a foot overbridge to cross the Mandakini river to Hilsa. Post Hilsa to Simikot or Nepalgunj is all mountains with no major motorable road. These guys visit Tibet every year and is in touch with the Chinese establishment and Nepali Govt. Either they are peddling CCP propaganda or typical hidden Indian hand in all of Nepal's problems.

I brought the example here to show the nature of the terrain and infra on our side of the border vs the one on the Tibetan side using the example on the Nepal side which is similar. A motorable road to the border from our side changes the threat to the Chinese as they need much more stronger defences here than before.
2. There are 2x the pilgrims who visit Kailash via Nepal than the ones via Lipuleh/Nathu La as it is much shorter and comfortable. Lipuleh trek is quite tough and Nathu much longer. The air route via Nepalgunj-Simikot-Hilsa feeds the local economy of those areas. From May to Sept there is continuous flow of pilgrims from India. With the opening of motorable Lipuleh pass, people will prefer to directly go from India instead of Nepal..I was not surprised with Nepal's reaction to opening of the road.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 30 May 2020 13:14

Thank you for answering my prayers!!!


Australia and India to create military base in Andaman and cocoS islands.

Changing the theater to the East is a must.

https://eurasiantimes.com/india-australia-could-sign-pact-for-a-military-base-in-andamans-and-cocos-islands-experts/

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby manjgu » 30 May 2020 14:29

Sridhar K wrote:@manjgu
1. Per them India was armtwisting the Nepali Govt. through various levers ( this was in 2015) in not allowing China to build roads into Nepal while China has been offering help. Currently S207 runs till the Nepal border till Hilsa. There is a foot overbridge to cross the Mandakini river to Hilsa. Post Hilsa to Simikot or Nepalgunj is all mountains with no major motorable road. These guys visit Tibet every year and is in touch with the Chinese establishment and Nepali Govt. Either they are peddling CCP propaganda or typical hidden Indian hand in all of Nepal's problems.

I brought the example here to show the nature of the terrain and infra on our side of the border vs the one on the Tibetan side using the example on the Nepal side which is similar. A motorable road to the border from our side changes the threat to the Chinese as they need much more stronger defences here than before.
2. There are 2x the pilgrims who visit Kailash via Nepal than the ones via Lipuleh/Nathu La as it is much shorter and comfortable. Lipuleh trek is quite tough and Nathu much longer. The air route via Nepalgunj-Simikot-Hilsa feeds the local economy of those areas. From May to Sept there is continuous flow of pilgrims from India. With the opening of motorable Lipuleh pass, people will prefer to directly go from India instead of Nepal..I was not surprised with Nepal's reaction to opening of the road.


thanks.... i understood the military aspect of our road till lipulekh ...was confused about the tourist angle... but if china refuses to take tourists thru Lipulekh then perforce people will have to go thru Nepal?

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 30 May 2020 14:41

Gen sahib is now claiming that Chinis have positioned themselves on the mountains above the Galwan valley.

It is 3-4 KM from LAC towards the Shyok river junction. How does PLAN provide supplies to these positions without a proper road? that is not visible in satellite images? 4 KM is not near.

Where are the tents or bunkers for these positions?

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sridhar K » 30 May 2020 14:47

Yes they can but on normal days when China is behaving well, it will have an impact on Nepal while China continues to make money either way through tourist. China being unhappy with the Lipulekh road, also triggered an unhappy Nepal to lay claim on the region.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby yensoy » 30 May 2020 15:36

manjgu wrote:how can india protest a road between Nepal And china reaching Hilsa ( nepal) ? further, if there is not a road ahead of Lipulekh connecting to the chini highway , how will it impact Nepali tourism ( unless people will trek from lipukekh pass onwards towards Mansarovar?) confused....


India "protesting" would be basically not letting Indian yatris connect via Nepal to China. Without Indian tourists & traffic, that road may be shiny and smooth and will remain so due to lack of use.

The Indian position would have been to tell China that the road will go thru Lipulekh directly to Tibet; China would have said no, use the road via Nepal (why? to further Nepal's interest in that area, as well as actively discourage continued Indian use of Lipulekh); then India would have told them "no way, we are neighbours so we aren't going to route our people through a third country. You want to bring your road to Lipulekh, that's great. Otherwise our yatris are happy to trek the 10 odd km to S-207."

Just to be clear, this is my reading of the scenario. I have no idea what actually transpired.


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