India Border Watch: Security and Operations

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Karna
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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Karna » 01 Jun 2020 22:50

ldev wrote:
Karna wrote:Doklham showed that we would react to any threat to our border security.

And that is the problem. Reactive and not proactive as the following explains.

Ajai Shukla and Abjhijit Iyer Mitra are 2 extreme ends of a spectrum. Shukla says the sky is falling and China has invaded India. Iyer-Mitra says via this article that, at least in the Pangong Tso Lake area it was nothing more than a "drive by" done by China and now they have retreated/been pushed back. So nothing to see here, move on. It is business as usual. If that was indeed the case there would not be the massive mobilization by India. This article by Iyer-Mitra is about the Pangong Tso lake situation. Other areas such as Galwan and Hot Springs have not been covered as yet. So we will see.

However what is clear is that through good and bad times in the relationship with Xi and Modi having chai biskoot, China has remained unwavering in it's objectives and that is to assert control over territory that it feels belongs to it. Prior to Kargil, Indian soldiers used to patrol up to Finger 8 at the Pangong Tso Lake. And during the Kargil distraction, China built a road upto Finger 5. After that Indian soldiers have apparently been unable to patrol beyond that point. And now Chinese soldiers have intruded west of Finger 4, almost upto the ITBP camp. So China has gained control all the way upto Finger 4 and is now threatening India's control west of Finger 4. And realize this, that the Pangong Tso Lake is 135 kms from east to west. So China moving it's control from Finger 8 pre Kargil to Finger 4 is likely to be 35-50 kms of additional shoreline control. That is the degree of control that China has gained in Pangong Tso and it is still not satisfied but is pushing further west as the current confrontations show. China has been consistently proactive for the last 20+ years. India has been consistenly reactive.

Having said that I have no doubt that in the event of full scale border hostilities the Indian armed forces will be able to hold on to the border and could also make minor gains in territory, due to local superiority in numbers. But that is not a long term strategy. India has to impose costs on China elsewhere as has been repeated on this threat numerous times. Without those punitive costs elsewhere this border issue will fester and the problem is that China is the more consistent in it's border objectives. On the Indian side, public sentiment and support varies with how warm or cool the latest chai biskoot session is.


Idev - Very well articulated. And I agree there doesn't seems to be a coherent strategy against China and till that time we will be reactive.

There is a need for a defensive offensive strategy. Today we cannot hurt China through economically and diplomatically we are very shy to confront them.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby arshyam » 01 Jun 2020 23:05

ldev wrote:Prior to Kargil, Indian soldiers used to patrol up to Finger 8 at the Pangong Tso Lake. And during the Kargil distraction, China built a road upto Finger 5. After that Indian soldiers have apparently been unable to patrol beyond that point.

Any sources for this?

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby abhik » 01 Jun 2020 23:20

FACE-OFFS - THE MATRIX AHEAD BY LT GEN PR SHANKAR (R)

There are viable offensive options available in Eastern Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. However any option in Arunachal Pradesh needs large force levels to achieve political objectives. Hence the choice is Eastern Ladakh and Sikkim.


The first target in Ladakh is the Road from Darbuk to DBO. The road recently completed (after 18 years) connects to Karakoram Pass (see map above). This gives direct access to Xinjiang. Access to Xinjiang poses real destabilizing threat to China in the sensitive Uighur Area which is bordered with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. It has a long-term threat to destabilize the CPEC also since Karakoram Pass is close to the area ceded by Pakistan to China. So if this road is interfered with/ cutoff, India will be heavily disadvantaged.


The second target in Sikkim is the Gurudongmar Road, North of Thangu Valley. It can be approached through Naku La and the parallel Muguthang Valley (see map). There are some passes on the intervening ridge between the Muguthang and Thangu Valleys to enable an indirect approach to the Gurudongmar Road. A block on this Road will cut off Indian Forces in the North, cut off access to the Tibetan Plateau, open Chinese offensive options into Sikkim, It broadens the base and reduces vulnerability of the Chumbi Valley. it will be an ideal answer to the Doklam Face-off.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby ldev » 01 Jun 2020 23:30

arshyam wrote:
ldev wrote:Prior to Kargil, Indian soldiers used to patrol up to Finger 8 at the Pangong Tso Lake. And during the Kargil distraction, China built a road upto Finger 5. After that Indian soldiers have apparently been unable to patrol beyond that point.

Any sources for this?


The most recent that I can recall is probably a twitter exchange between General Panag and somebody responding to his recent article. As you know General Panag's viewpoints are not very complimentary on India's handling of the current situation and he had insisted that India lost control of the Finger 4 to 8 region in the recent past i.e. post 2014. The other person responded that India has not patrolled to Finger 8 for the last 21 years i.e. from the time of Kargil, 1999. Look for that twitter exchange. If I find it I will post it.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby ldev » 01 Jun 2020 23:42

abhik wrote:FACE-OFFS - THE MATRIX AHEAD BY LT GEN PR SHANKAR (R)

There are viable offensive options available in Eastern Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. However any option in Arunachal Pradesh needs large force levels to achieve political objectives. Hence the choice is Eastern Ladakh and Sikkim.


The first target in Ladakh is the Road from Darbuk to DBO. The road recently completed (after 18 years) connects to Karakoram Pass (see map above). This gives direct access to Xinjiang. Access to Xinjiang poses real destabilizing threat to China in the sensitive Uighur Area which is bordered with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. It has a long-term threat to destabilize the CPEC also since Karakoram Pass is close to the area ceded by Pakistan to China. So if this road is interfered with/ cutoff, India will be heavily disadvantaged.


The second target in Sikkim is the Gurudongmar Road, North of Thangu Valley. It can be approached through Naku La and the parallel Muguthang Valley (see map). There are some passes on the intervening ridge between the Muguthang and Thangu Valleys to enable an indirect approach to the Gurudongmar Road. A block on this Road will cut off Indian Forces in the North, cut off access to the Tibetan Plateau, open Chinese offensive options into Sikkim, It broadens the base and reduces vulnerability of the Chumbi Valley. it will be an ideal answer to the Doklam Face-off.

Yet another example from a retired General of a permanently defensive and reactive mindset. This entire article is about China can move on to this sector and China can attack in that sector and China can pressurize India by such and such pincer movement. And thereby India will be permanently dis-advantaged if China does this or that and China will gain a permanent advantage.

How about retired Generals for a change coming up with plans and writing about what India can do to dis-advantage China? I think that General Sundarji was the last Indian General who thought about offensive operations.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby fanne » 02 Jun 2020 00:47

ldev wrote:

Yet another example from a retired General of a permanently defensive and reactive mindset. This entire article is about China can move on to this sector and China can attack in that sector and China can pressurize India by such and such pincer movement. And thereby India will be permanently dis-advantaged if China does this or that and China will gain a permanent advantage.

How about retired Generals for a change coming up with plans and writing about what India can do to dis-advantage China? I think that General Sundarji was the last Indian General who thought about offensive operations.


This is just wow!! Now you want a retired general to tell what our plans could be? And that is because in our web world we can feel good about it (the one serving already know, and so would Chinese to a good degree). If you have noticed, all retired folks (including Shri B. Raman, Om shanti to him) talk about what the other side can do and would never present a conclusion. It is not because they don't know or lack imagination, it is the best way.

If you read along, the non military people (like dean or sjha or …) have presented many options if you are looking. There are only so many places for a fight, 31 passes, 8 general area of conflict. Few we have advantages in, few they have. Few like current Ladhak one is indefensible for either side, no distinct natural feature to fortify yourself

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 02 Jun 2020 01:02

fanne wrote:
ldev wrote:Yet another example from a retired General of a permanently defensive and reactive mindset. This entire article is about China can move on to this sector and China can attack in that sector and China can pressurize India by such and such pincer movement. And thereby India will be permanently dis-advantaged if China does this or that and China will gain a permanent advantage.

How about retired Generals for a change coming up with plans and writing about what India can do to dis-advantage China? I think that General Sundarji was the last Indian General who thought about offensive operations.


This is just wow!! Now you want a retired general to tell what our plans could be? And that is because in our web world we can feel good about it (the one serving already know, and so would Chinese to a good degree). If you have noticed, all retired folks (including Shri B. Raman, Om shanti to him) talk about what the other side can do and would never present a conclusion. It is not because they don't know or lack imagination, it is the best way.

If you read along, the non military people (like dean or sjha or …) have presented many options if you are looking. There are only so many places for a fight, 31 passes, 8 general area of conflict. Few we have advantages in, few they have. Few like current Ladhak one is indefensible for either side, no distinct natural feature to fortify yourself


Don't troll. There is a difference between what you say and how you posture. No one is asking the Generals to divulge secrets. However, what is wrong with saying, if you mess with Ladakh, we will poke Taiwan. That's an ideological posture.

Are you saying we are too timid to maintain such a posture out in the wild? What ldev is saying is in reference to the mindset of the defense professionals and the obsession with status quo. If our end goal is status quo, and the enemy's end goal is to implode India, you are setting yourself up for failure. If the enemy has the intention to harm and decapitate a limb of India, maintaining a status quo posture is suicide. You have to call a spade and spade, and outwardly identify an enemy as an enemy.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby abhik » 02 Jun 2020 01:05

ldev wrote:

Yet another example from a retired General of a permanently defensive and reactive mindset. This entire article is about China can move on to this sector and China can attack in that sector and China can pressurize India by such and such pincer movement. And thereby India will be permanently dis-advantaged if China does this or that and China will gain a permanent advantage.

How about retired Generals for a change coming up with plans and writing about what India can do to dis-advantage China? I think that General Sundarji was the last Indian General who thought about offensive operations.


Maybe I'm not old enough (or don't know my history), but the likes of General Sundarji came up the ranks with 1962, 65, 71 wars moulding their career and view points. Our current crop have come up experiencing 30 years of non stop insurgency, low intensity conflict with the pakies on the LoC, one limited war (where we went out of our way to put restrictive RoE), contracting defence budgets, and restricting our response with the Chinese to wrestling and throwing stones. It's clear the government (regardless of whichever party is ruling), isn't interested in spending a lot of money to build defence capability nor do they want to precipitate any situation into a full scale war. Armed forces leadership outlook will only reflect that background, how can we expect any different?

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby fanne » 02 Jun 2020 01:07

I would strongly urge people to read this. My take (upon being a arm chair analyst for 2 weeks and reading a lot) it could be in Sikkim that the Chinese make their move (if they do). The Ladhak one is a stalemate, both side will loose many men with little to gain (if there is a fight). A grab and hold in and near chumbi valley is one of the viable options. Are they coming? Long term solution if Tibet being free (and act as true buffer, as it has for the past 5000 years). The dharmic people there have long been suppressed by an unGodly and brutal regime. Yes not our war perhaps but a worthy war.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 02 Jun 2020 01:10

abhik wrote:
ldev wrote:Yet another example from a retired General of a permanently defensive and reactive mindset. This entire article is about China can move on to this sector and China can attack in that sector and China can pressurize India by such and such pincer movement. And thereby India will be permanently dis-advantaged if China does this or that and China will gain a permanent advantage.

How about retired Generals for a change coming up with plans and writing about what India can do to dis-advantage China? I think that General Sundarji was the last Indian General who thought about offensive operations.


Maybe I'm not old enough (or don't know my history), but the likes of General Sundarji came up the ranks with 1962, 65, 71 wars moulding their career and view points. Our current crop have come up experiencing 30 years of non stop insurgency, low intensity conflict with the pakies on the LoC, one limited war (where we went out of our way to put restrictive RoE), contracting defence budgets, and restricting our response with the Chinese to wrestling and throwing stones. It's clear the government (regardless of whichever party is ruling), isn't interested in spending a lot of money to build defence capability nor do they want to precipitate any situation into a full scale war. Armed forces leadership outlook will only reflect that background, how can we expect any different?


How do you explain this? Full scale war deployment is already happening. I don't doubt that India is capable of dislodging the Chinese back to Status Quo. The argument I am making is that we cannot stop there and we have to impose a serious cost + loss of face to the Chinese by pushing them further than the LoC, perhaps taking all of Aksai Chin. Otherwise they will come back and repeat the same cycle.


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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 02 Jun 2020 01:19

It is from last year...


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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 02 Jun 2020 01:22

nam wrote:It is from last year...



Ahh I see. My point still stands. We need to mobilize more. Defensive posture is a bad strategy long term.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chetak » 02 Jun 2020 01:31

maybe this is how xi is warning off India from opposing them

Us imports from China already 50% down as compared to the last two years figures,

and what, if Indian imports from china also reduce by 50%

china should be worried about its own economy instead of India's.


Global Times@globaltimesnews
It’s advisable for #India not to engage in US-China confrontation. If India becomes a US pawn attacking China in a #newcoldwar, the economic blow would be too much for the Indian economy to take amid #pandemic. https://bit.ly/2TQ24xp
1:10 AM · Jun 1, 2020
Last edited by chetak on 02 Jun 2020 01:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Manish_Sharma » 02 Jun 2020 01:33

Sravan wrote:[
Recognizing the relationship is beyond repair and taking your losses is the first step. Unless the CCP is out of power, India cannot have friendly relations or any meaningful relationship with China. We should internalize that, believe it and act on it. Otherwise we are ******.



You are so mistaken, even without CCP commie rulers, chinese will still behave like this, Even non-communist Taiwan declares that Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh belong to China.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby abhik » 02 Jun 2020 01:42

Sravan wrote:How do you explain this? Full scale war deployment is already happening.

No offence but lets not take things OTT using this video - this does not really prove anything, All we have to go by in the media is a nominal amount of build up (and not chola saars legendary 10 divisions with 1:10 superiority :wink: )
I don't doubt that India is capable of dislodging the Chinese back to Status Quo. The argument I am making is that we cannot stop there and we have to impose a serious cost + loss of face to the Chinese by pushing them further than the LoC, perhaps taking all of Aksai Chin. Otherwise they will come back and repeat the same cycle.

Sorry I don't watch much news, but have the political class said much about this situation, apart of standard all iz well, we are prepared for all contingency etc. statements? I'm under the impression that they are trying to downplay it. Does that not mean they are not looking for anything more than going back to status quo? It feels like only BRFites and some twits on the interwebs and news are getting excited.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 02 Jun 2020 01:45

The unfortunate part is because of our lack of technological mass, our decision maker and military can employ what seems like a defensive posture.

The simple fact is we want the capability to come to a decisive state in a war, in the shortest time possible. If the Chini attack, we should have the capability to degrade their forces rapidly along the LAC. Unfortunately we don't have that capability.

Take this example: Chinis will launch a massive first wave attack of BM, CM, artillery & standoff air attacks. Will it defeat us? No.

Now the question is can we respond back with a similar scale of attack? We lack in numbers: 155MM, fighters, long range SAM, production of 155MM rounds, standoff A2G weapons, BM, cheap CM. modern ATGM, tank Sabot rounds, AWACS, sensors, drones etc.. We lack technological depth across the offensive spectrum.

We can launch all of these, but the scale will be no where required to decimate Chinese forces along the LAC. Unless our political & millitary leaders have confidence in responding back with such a scale, we will hear "defensive sentiments" and all efforts will be made to prevent a escalation.

So this means, we cannot prevent an adversary from attacking us. This also means, we cannot fire the first bullet, unless the adversary is of the scale of Pakistan. 1/10 our GDP.
Last edited by nam on 02 Jun 2020 01:54, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 02 Jun 2020 01:52

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Sravan wrote:[
Recognizing the relationship is beyond repair and taking your losses is the first step. Unless the CCP is out of power, India cannot have friendly relations or any meaningful relationship with China. We should internalize that, believe it and act on it. Otherwise we are ******.



You are so mistaken, even without CCP commie rulers, chinese will still behave like this, Even non-communist Taiwan declares that Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh belong to China.


AFAIK, Taiwan supports Tibet. If we liberate Tibet, we can set the boundary on our terms. My main concern is adding a buffer state between China and India. It's better to have Tibet in between vs having China 500km from Delhi.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3841302
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB955649252558331290

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby abhik » 02 Jun 2020 01:56

Sravan wrote:
nam wrote:It is from last year...



Ahh I see. My point still stands. We need to mobilize more. Defensive posture is a bad strategy long term.


BTW IA has about ~50k of those stallion trucks, if we really mobilises fully, you will start seeing many 4 digit long convoys snaking through those roads.


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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby eklavya » 02 Jun 2020 03:33

^^^^^
They mean to occupy the Galwan Valley. It’s a decision from the top. The other stuff may be reminders that they can make trouble elsewhere. They don’t intend to withdraw either. It leaves India with two options: (a) do nothing, (b) fight. They are preparing for (b): Modi is not to be underestimated. So are we. US can help with munitions, intelligence, etc. But fight doesn’t mean fight tomorrow morning or next week. It means fight when we are ready.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby bkswarti » 02 Jun 2020 07:53

I love how I am still getting harassed for saying something against Modi; and while I haven't commented in a while, I am still being issued warnings from the moderator. This is hilarious. Why have a forum if you can't hear criticism towards Modi's policies.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby arshyam » 02 Jun 2020 08:12

ldev wrote:
arshyam wrote:Any sources for this?


The most recent that I can recall is probably a twitter exchange between General Panag and somebody responding to his recent article. As you know General Panag's viewpoints are not very complimentary on India's handling of the current situation and he had insisted that India lost control of the Finger 4 to 8 region in the recent past i.e. post 2014. The other person responded that India has not patrolled to Finger 8 for the last 21 years i.e. from the time of Kargil, 1999. Look for that twitter exchange. If I find it I will post it.

Thanks.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 02 Jun 2020 08:21

Looks like the timing of the US protests and the destabilization of South Asia is coordinated. US resources are being tied up with law and order problems while Asian power dynamics are being changed.

The timing of Pak China movements seems circumspect when looking at the US law and order being destabilized.
Last edited by Sravan on 02 Jun 2020 09:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby pushkar.bhat » 02 Jun 2020 08:54

chetak wrote:maybe this is how xi is warning off India from opposing them

Us imports from China already 50% down as compared to the last two years figures,

and what, if Indian imports from china also reduce by 50%

china should be worried about its own economy instead of India's.


Global Times@globaltimesnews
It’s advisable for #India not to engage in US-China confrontation. If India becomes a US pawn attacking China in a #newcoldwar, the economic blow would be too much for the Indian economy to take amid #pandemic. https://bit.ly/2TQ24xp
1:10 AM · Jun 1, 2020


China now has a consumption led economy unlike may be 20 years ago. US trade cuts hurt but are little more then a scratch. Even if we cut imports they are not going to hurt real bad. On the other hand Chinese imports do hurt MSME in India and reduce our capablity to generate employment for consumption goods. So we must do everything to cut our dependence on China or any other country.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby yensoy » 02 Jun 2020 09:26

^^^^ China has an economy subsidized by its housing bubble. I could explain more but that be outside the scope of this thread. Let's understand that its meteoric growth is coming from somewhere and that is under threat the day house prices stop their exponential growth, and that day isn't far off.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Philip » 02 Jun 2020 11:42

I hate to say I told you so,but some may remember my highlighting the need for a light tank for the mountains over a year ago, precisely for the actions of the duplicitous Chinese. I questioned the huge extravaganza trotted out to XI at Mahabalipuram,saying that Modiji would be betrayed and that XI
was lining him up as a latter-day Nehru and India for another " lesson" '62 style .

Now in the reports coming out we're told that the Chins have bolstered their forces with heavy arty., light tanks,attack helos and are patrolling the skies with their aircraft. On the ground armour would play a decisive role. Their light tank, the T-15 has a 105mm main gun and weighs 33t. In 2016 we were supposed to have moved 100 T-72 MBTs to this sector to beef up our forces.A T-72 easily outguns a Chin T-15. While this was very commendable, and one is sure that some T-72s are certainly in the fray, one wonders whether a T-72 is navigable in most areas . The IA's need for a light tank in the mountains was officially stated as far back as Sept.2017,anticipating Chin mischief! It had to be light for easy transportability,etc. A hunt for such a tank was to have started over 2 years ago.Readily available is the Ru Sprut,often mentioned,with a 125mm gun which would outgun the Chin T-15.However,the Sprut's armour is inadequate ,needs better protection and would have to have ERA tiles adding to weight,etc.

In the debate about the OFB being given an order for around 140 new BMP-2s,while pvt. entities were astonishingly left out, there are even better versions than the vintage BMP-2 available since 2004 in large number like the air-portable BMP-4,which can be air-dropped ,weighing less than 15t with a 100mm gun. The Q is, is the quest for a light tank being accelerated in the light of current developments? The Chins have acted when we were least expecting it. Fighting CV on one front and the economy on the other,plus the clever tactic of increased terror activity from Pak in Kashmir and the new impasse with Nepal!

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 02 Jun 2020 11:53

Philip wrote:I hate to say I told you so,but some may remember my highlighting the need for a light tank for the mountains over a year ago, precisely for the actions of the duplicitous Chinese. I questioned the huge extravaganza trotted out to XI at Mahabalipuram,saying that Modiji would be betrayed and that XI
was lining him up as a latter-day Nehru and India for another " lesson" '62 style .

Now in the reports coming out we're told that the Chins have bolstered their forces with heavy arty., light tanks,attack helos and are patrolling the skies with their aircraft. On the ground armour would play a decisive role. Their light tank, the T-15 has a 105mm main gun and weighs 33t. In 2016 we were supposed to have moved 100 T-72 MBTs to this sector to beef up our forces.A T-72 easily outguns a Chin T-15. While this was very commendable, and one is sure that some T-72s are certainly in the fray, one wonders whether a T-72 is navigable in most areas . The IA's need for a light tank in the mountains was officially stated as far back as Sept.2017,anticipating Chin mischief! It had to be light for easy transportability,etc. A hunt for such a tank was to have started over 2 years ago.Readily available is the Ru Sprut,often mentioned,with a 125mm gun which would outgun the Chin T-15.However,the Sprut's armour is inadequate ,needs better protection and would have to have ERA tiles adding to weight,etc.

In the debate about the OFB being given an order for around 140 new BMP-2s,while pvt. entities were astonishingly left out, there are even better versions than the vintage BMP-2 available since 2004 in large number like the air-portable BMP-4,which can be air-dropped ,weighing less than 15t with a 100mm gun. The Q is, is the quest for a light tank being accelerated in the light of current developments? The Chins have acted when we were least expecting it. Fighting CV on one front and the economy on the other,plus the clever tactic of increased terror activity from Pak in Kashmir and the new impasse with Nepal!


That’s why we need to escalate the war and shore up relations with the US, Australia and Japan. We can’t be non-aligned anymore. India has to pick sides and get partners or we will get jumped by the Chini-Pak alliance. Gentlemen, this is a precursor to the next global conflict and we have to decide which camp we are in. Allied or Axis powers.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jun 2020 12:18

Thats a no-brainer when you have democratic countries on one side and other side is dictatorship or pseudo-democracies. Also beyond a certain point this rona-dhona gets tiring, especially when it is all scare-mongering. Had we employed a 105mm 33 ton tank, forum would have laughed off as stupid and suicidal, but if Chinese depliy then these tin cans suddenly get magical powers. We deployed fighters, and then China deployed in response, but if anyone reads this forum, the impression will be that achinese aircraft are swarming all over. Again as I had asked earlier, why do we assume that India is only panicking, it maybe that our rapid deployment has unnerved and panicked Chinese ? We are picking up some random tweets where there is no way to validate it's veracity and intent and then get into doom-and-gloom mode. One poster said that unrest in US is engineered by China. What are we smoking ?? China cannot control protest in HK but has mythical powers to create riots in US. And US a hyperpower will get bogged down and loose q conflict because some dope heads decided to indulge in anarchy ?? This is getting seriously tiring and underwhelming.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 02 Jun 2020 12:40

Larry Walker wrote:Thats a no-brainer when you have democratic countries on one side and other side is dictatorship or pseudo-democracies. Also beyond a certain point this rona-dhona gets tiring, especially when it is all scare-mongering. Had we employed a 105mm 33 ton tank, forum would have laughed off as stupid and suicidal, but if Chinese depliy then these tin cans suddenly get magical powers. We deployed fighters, and then China deployed in response, but if anyone reads this forum, the impression will be that achinese aircraft are swarming all over. Again as I had asked earlier, why do we assume that India is only panicking, it maybe that our rapid deployment has unnerved and panicked Chinese ? We are picking up some random tweets where there is no way to validate it's veracity and intent and then get into doom-and-gloom mode. One poster said that unrest in US is engineered by China. What are we smoking ?? China cannot control protest in HK but has mythical powers to create riots in US. And US a hyperpower will get bogged down and loose q conflict because some dope heads decided to indulge in anarchy ?? This is getting seriously tiring and underwhelming.


Larry it’s called social media manipulation. Let me paraphrase how it works. You find a fissure in a society and then you invest into scaling up that fissure by adding fuel to the fire.

Pakistan tested this with the Khalistani movement.

US did it with Arab Spring.

Russians did it during US elections.

Chinese are doing it through social media. They are instigating more people by pumping resources into one narrative over the other. If you think it’s crazy, you are uninformed. Look up Cambridge Analytica and you will understand what I’m talking about.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby srin » 02 Jun 2020 12:54

I don't really see the usecase for a "light tank". We already have MBTs in the high altitude plains of ladakh. If we can get an MBT up there and we have sufficient numbers, why settle for a measly 105mm gun. Also, what's the efficacy of a 105mm on an MBT ?
The defense against a light tank is not another light tank, it is a vehicle mounted ATGM. We have BMPs (with ATGMs presumably) already deployed.
Don't see why we suddenly need to have light tanks just because the Chinese do.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chandrasekaran » 02 Jun 2020 13:06

arshyam wrote:
ldev wrote:
The most recent that I can recall is probably a twitter exchange between General Panag and somebody responding to his recent article. As you know General Panag's viewpoints are not very complimentary on India's handling of the current situation and he had insisted that India lost control of the Finger 4 to 8 region in the recent past i.e. post 2014. The other person responded that India has not patrolled to Finger 8 for the last 21 years i.e. from the time of Kargil, 1999. Look for that twitter exchange. If I find it I will post it.

Thanks.


This thread debunks this notion that "lost control in the recent past - aka since 2014"

https://twitter.com/Iyervval/status/1267500765993529344

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 02 Jun 2020 13:17

srin wrote:I don't really see the usecase for a "light tank". We already have MBTs in the high altitude plains of ladakh. If we can get an MBT up there and we have sufficient numbers, why settle for a measly 105mm gun. Also, what's the efficacy of a 105mm on an MBT ?
The defense against a light tank is not another light tank, it is a vehicle mounted ATGM. We have BMPs (with ATGMs presumably) already deployed.
Don't see why we suddenly need to have light tanks just because the Chinese do.


Exactly, Nag missiles, rocket launchers, air support should be the focus. Anything that is slow moving, bulky and big is a sitting duck.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 02 Jun 2020 13:18

If we were controlling till Finger 8, we would have had a post there. Do we have one?

Does anyone know who controls the southern banks?

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Aditya_V » 02 Jun 2020 14:19

Southern Bank is the Chushul town, former airstrip and Chinese Spangur area , upto Former Chushul airstip we control , immediately east is the Chinese Spangur complex connected to Rutog.

Funnily on google maps I see a Road going from Merak to the Chinese flag at Spangur.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby arshyam » 02 Jun 2020 14:34

Aditya_V wrote:Funnily on google maps I see a Road going from Merak to the Chinese flag at Spangur.

Wikimapia has it marked as a flag meeting point, iirc. Does the satellite view show kachcha road, at least? I wouldn't be surprised if we have a road to this point.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 02 Jun 2020 14:39

Aditya_V wrote:Southern Bank is the Chushul town, former airstrip and Chinese Spangur area , upto Former Chushul airstip we control , immediately east is the Chinese Spangur complex connected to Rutog.

Funnily on google maps I see a Road going from Merak to the Chinese flag at Spangur.


What about the Southern banks near the Finger 8 area?

The area around Finger 8 is the narrowest point on the lake. If we are on the southern banks, IA could mount an ops to gain foot on the Finger 8 area, behind the Chinese position.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 02 Jun 2020 14:43

Can any GE expert id this position on the lake? Is it in the North or South banks? These are our boys.

Image

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chetak » 02 Jun 2020 15:28

Barring 1962, when the neighbours went to war, not a single bullet has been fired across the Sino-Indian border since 1975. Yet the disputed, un-demarcated LAC is not considered a ‘hot border’ like the one with Pakistan.

however, sticks and stones have broken many a bone on either side.

the rapid build up of Indian infrastructure in the border regions have seriously upset the chinese calculations and the perceived need to "protect" the CPEC is grievously queering the pitch for them.

Also, they may not have enough troops without denuding the PLA set up on other fronts, like the russian one for example.


the article is dated 08 june.

obviously, some inadvertent mistake has been made by some proofreading person.


How Posturing, Transgressions Along Line of Actual Control Impact India-China Relations

Barring 1962, when the neighbours went to war, not a single bullet has been fired across the Sino-Indian border since 1975

Pranay Sharma
08 June 2020

How Posturing, Transgressions Along Line of Actual Control Impact India-China Relations

Three years ago, a prolonged stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops on Bhutan’s Doklam plateau had sparked alarming speculation about the proximity of an armed conflict between the two Asian giants, and how such a frightening possibility would destabilise the sub-continent and the region beyond. That crisis, however, was resolved in 73 days without a shot being fired.

But similar worries have started clouding minds of policy planners as Indian and Chinese soldiers have over the past week begun to pitch tents and enforce their respective positions along strategic points in Ladakh, in the western sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The build-up at the border—triggered by aggressive posturing and ‘transgressions’ by soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into the Indian side of the LAC—coincides with a marked rise in anti-China feelings in India as sections make common cause with the anger against the Chinese leadership across the world in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis.

The question arises if the two developments are linked. “This seems to be a coincidence; there is no connection between the two,” says Srinath Raghavan, Professor of History and International Relations, Ashoka University. “The LAC has its own seasonal dynamic and this is part of it. Though both sides seem to have gone farther than usual,” he adds. Raghavan refers to incidents that started from May 5-6, when Indian and Chinese soldiers were injured while trading punches and throwing stones at each other in a departure from past norms underlining the avoidance of physical violence.

Barring 1962, when the neighbours went to war over their disputed boundary, not a single bullet has been fired across the Sino-Indian border since 1975. In the intervening period, there have been skirmishes and face-offs. But they were all peacefully resolved.

The 3448-km Line of Actual Control, behind which soldiers of the two countries stand, remains disputed and un-demarcated, yet is not considered a ‘hot border’ like the one between India and Pakistan. Moreover, despite their simultaneous rise within the same geographical space, Indian and Chinese leadership have so far skilfully managed to avoid situations that could lead to another armed confrontation. But heightened tension in the past weeks, following hectic activities of patrolling soldiers of India and China in key points along the LAC, has increased unease.

Recent summits between PM Modi and President Xi have sought to iron out fissures in Sino-India ties.

Indian officials have recorded ‘transgressions’ along the LAC in Pangong Tso Lake, Trig Heights, Burtse, the Doletango area and the Galwan river valley in Ladakh and also at strategic points in Sikkim.

“Better infrastructure, enhanced transportation and communication facilities have increased the probability of Indian and Chinese patrols coming face-to-face,” explains Gautam Bambawale, former ambassador to China. Coupled with aggressive patrolling, this could lead to the kind of situation we now witness, he explains.

Bambawale reminds that there are standard operation procedures that the two sides have agreed to and if their soldiers adhere to them the border could be relatively peaceful. But if there are attempts to change the ‘status quo ante’, it could lead to trouble, he warns.

India’s building of access roads to the Karakoram highway is being vehemently and unfairly opposed by China.

Experts say the stand-off in strategic points at Ladakh, like Galwan, is connected to Indian construction activities, including building a road from Dharchuk via Shyok to Daulat Beg Oldie, which is now the revamped advance landing ground that would allow C-130J aircraft to land and boost strategic airlift capabilities. In addition, a series of roads are being built in the area to enhance India’s access to the Karakoram highway—an area of immense strategic importance for both Pakistan and China.


It is the building of this access road that is being vehemently opposed by China but India seem determined not to abandon its plans of building the required infrastructure—as the Chinese have done on their side—to enhance better access to the armed forces.

Away from the border, the mood in political circles in New Delhi and elsewhere has undergone a significant change. Political leaders, including those from the ruling BJP, like its national general secretary Ram Madhav and Union minister Nitin Gadkari, made critical remarks about China in public.

“I don’t see any special change in India’s approach towards China,” says C. Raja Mohan, director of the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. “The worldwide concern is about China getting assertive in its responses to questions on its handling of the COVID-19 crisis,” he adds. Raja Mohan points out that in India the public debate, especially from the political class, has always been free-flowing; there have been voices that have always been critical of China and those who resolutely supported Beijing irrespective of the merits involved.

“But the section that is responsible for the China policy, especially the MEA, remains careful and measured in its response,” he says, indicating that Beijing should look through the clutter to make sense of the Indian government’s stance in this prevailing international mood.

Raghavan feels joining a Western chorus of criticism of China makes it easier for some in India to express displeasure at China’s handling of the pandemic. “At a time when many others are talking tough with China, it’ll be difficult for Beijing to target India,” he says.

Hardliners, however, are disappointed with the government’s stand. “India is not adopting a policy that is assertive enough towards China,” says former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. “China’s provocations that touch our core interests continue,” he adds. According to Sibal, China has not only repeatedly attempted to put Kashmir on the UN Security Council agenda, but also challenged India’s sovereignty in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh.

“On the latest provocations in Sikkim and Ladakh, our initial reaction was mild and even apologetic,” feels Sibal. “But the MEA spokesperson corrected the earlier mistake by accusing the Chinese side of hindering normal patrolling patterns, affirming that all Indian activity is on the Indian side and that India was committed to protect its sovereignty and security.”

Bambawale, who has been part of crafting the China policy, makes it clear that there was nothing new about India’s stand. “India has for many decades taken strong positions vis-a-vis China where our fundamental interests were involved,” says the former envoy. He cites examples to explain the Indian stand—referring to the 2017 Doklam stand-off, the Sumdorong Chu incident in the late 1980s or the 1998 decision to test a nuclear device. “India has always taken strong, difficult decisions when its fundamental interests were involved. I think this continues to be true today,” he adds.

Bambawale also refers to the recent guidelines India announced for investment from China, saying, “The recent change in FDI flows from China is in India’s basic interest. Even then, we will continue to welcome Chinese investment but through the government route.” Stressing his initial point, he says, “I believe there is more continuity than change in India’s policy toward China.”

But the current developments play out at a time when the US and China are locked in a major battle for supremacy and influence at the global stage. How will it affect India, whose ties with Washington have been growing steadily over the years? “The US affects all major bilateral relations in the world,” says Raja Mohan. “As the second most important power, China does the same today.” Referring to developments of the 1970s, when the US engaged China diplomatically, Raja Mohan points out how it forced New Delhi to lean more towards Moscow.

According to him, after four decades of deepening economic integration, America and China are drifting apart. Domestic politics in the US, awaiting a presidential election, has certainly complicated the dynamic. It can also be presumed that domestic political considerations make it ever more important for President Xi Jinping to be seen as standing up to American pressure. “All countries will now have to cope with worsening ties between US and China,” says Raja Mohan.

“Better infrastructure and communications have increased chances of opposing patrols coming face-to-face,” says Gautam Bambawale.
Indian ties with China must navigate these choppy waters, with India ensuring that much-needed investment from China continues to pour in. “The step to change the approval route for Chinese investments was necessary to prevent China’s predatory economic policies,” says Sibal. He points out that there is no bar to Chinese investments per se, the intent is to prevent China’s acquiring assets on the cheap as a result of their fall in value owing to the pandemic.

Raghavan is sceptical whether future ties between the two neighbours will be smooth. “I think New Delhi needs to be clear about the kind of relationship it wants with China,” says Raghavan. On one hand, he points out, there is a desire to call out Chinese handling of COVID-19 and try to position India as an alternative destination for global value chains. On the other, there seems to be an awareness of the need for continued investment flows from China and the importance of not getting into a hostile fracas with a stronger neighbour. “The tensions between these competing imperatives needs to be managed better,” adds Raghavan.

So far, India and China have done well to manage the contradictions in their relations. As Raja Mohan indicates, border tensions have steadily risen over the past decades, while the economic relationship has become unbalanced, with a massive trade deficit against India that has been difficult to overcome. “But the stakes for both countries are only higher now,” he says. “One hopes the current tensions will not escalate into a major crisis.”

Former foreign secretary Sibal has no illusions about the future of Sino-Indian ties. “The impact of China’s hegemonic ambitions on India will remain a serious problem, requiring, as before, engagement and hedging,” he observes in an opinion piece.

Bambawale is more pragmatic. “India-China relations have been complex. It is likely to get more so now”. He feels India needs to keep its relation with China on track while furthering its national interest. He points out the need for a new template, as the underlying realities have changed. “This was the effort made at the Wuhan Informal Summit. But it is still a work in progress,” says the former envoy to China. That work, it is to be hoped, must never be hostage to border tensions.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby manjgu » 02 Jun 2020 16:07

nam wrote:If we were controlling till Finger 8, we would have had a post there. Do we have one?

Does anyone know who controls the southern banks?


southern bank has villages ...spangmik maan merak.... and then on the extreme end is chushul...

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby manjgu » 02 Jun 2020 16:09

Sravan wrote:
srin wrote:I don't really see the usecase for a "light tank". We already have MBTs in the high altitude plains of ladakh. If we can get an MBT up there and we have sufficient numbers, why settle for a measly 105mm gun. Also, what's the efficacy of a 105mm on an MBT ?
The defense against a light tank is not another light tank, it is a vehicle mounted ATGM. We have BMPs (with ATGMs presumably) already deployed.
Don't see why we suddenly need to have light tanks just because the Chinese do.


Exactly, Nag missiles, rocket launchers, air support should be the focus. Anything that is slow moving, bulky and big is a sitting duck.


light tank is not slow moving...not too bulky ..and not big ....


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