LCA News and Discussions, 22-Oct-2013

member_28677 · Post by **member_28677** » 24 Jul 2014 22:28

Deleted

jahaju · Post by **jahaju** » 24 Jul 2014 23:03

From:
2623th flight on 28 June
TD1 : 233,PV1: 242,PV3: 382,LSP1: 74,LSP3: 202,LSP5: 270
TD2 : 305,PV2: 222,PV5: 49,LSP2: 294,LSP4: 125,LSP7: 112
NP1: 25,LSP8 : 88

To
2654th flight on 22 July
TD1 : 233,PV1: 242,PV3: 383,LSP1: 74,LSP3: 213,LSP5: 276
TD2 : 305,PV2: 222,PV5: 51,LSP2: 294,LSP4: 128,LSP7: 115
NP1: 25,LSP8 : 93

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 24 Jul 2014 23:07

Cosmo_R wrote:My two cents starts with a basic question:

In several other threads, the SU30MKI availability/up time or more specifically the below normal figures, has come up. If it's not engine MTBO's being reduced from 1000 hours to 700 hours due to unexplained flame outs and single engine landings, it seems to involve spare parts which we don't have the capacity to manufacture either at all or not in sufficient quantity.

So the question: if MKI availability was at international norms, would we really need the Rafale to take on the pakis? If we got to certain stage where we are kicking their butt, they'll threaten to go nuclear.

WRT to PRC, the Rafale is not going to make a difference in the outcome. They will have the edge in quantity, availability and strategic location (our cities are closer to their perimeter).

Whether we admit it or not, our strategy WRT to PRC has to be the same redline Pakis type: Go beyond a certain line, and we will nuke you and you have more to lose—the US and Japan will laugh up their sleeves, than we do—your great power dreams will be dealt a severe blow.

This means taking the $20bn for Rafales and putting it into Arihants Mk2 with 16+ mirved K4s or whatever.

While getting the SU30s to be more dependable.

This whole two front war and squadron strength is delusional IMVVVHO. We are a status quo power and all we need is to have credible deterrence and that means different things against different enemies.

The Rafale deal no longer makes any sense and we don't have the money for it.

asprinzl the israeli was making a similar argument many moons back. he and you are both right.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 24 Jul 2014 23:09

MahaKaal wrote:Ask Subramanian Swamy. He has equally great things to say about the man(overhyped by Vajpayee for muslim votebank).

But SS didn't come here and post about the "overhyped" status of Dr. Kalam, you did that. So cut the crap and tell us why is Dr. Kalam overhyped according to you ???

MahaKaal wrote:Sorry admins, will try to act civilized now. I forgot this is not USA where you can question founding fathers.

Oh please don't take the burden of teaching the dirty poor banias about civilization. Many have come before you and failed.

I as a dirty poor bania release you, a child of America of the burden of having to teach us civility. I hope this helps.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 24 Jul 2014 23:10

<snip> Indian R&D scene will take its own time to ramp up in capability - and while that is happening, the threat on India's borders will always be there. And which will not wait for Indian R&D scene to mature before springing a surprise... <snip>

indian rnd will take its own time, given enough support, to ramp up and reach good levels.

OTOH, do not give indian rnd any support and watch it slack as compared to the best.

RnD needs GREAT FUNDING AND INSTITUTIONAL support AND time; BOTH.

Not one OR the other. BOTH.

vic · Post by **vic** » 25 Jul 2014 00:08

Importing arms is like selling your daughter to protect family home with equipment which is required to be serviced by thieves.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Jul 2014 04:43

Guys,let's take a sip of some cool fizz ! Let me just mention what the article said.

HAL prefers to be "hand-held" by foreign companies,the licensing partner in manufacturing aircraft.The MMRCA cost will be $30B including setting up the manufacturing capability."HAL will be comfortable,as always for the licensor to provide all methodology and tech support for processing and producing the aircraft to the quality and interoperability stds. extant."

HAL has only one main customer,the IAF.Its experience with HAL designed and built has been poor.The IAF have expressed their dissatisfaction the the GOI at the highest levels.Grounding of the HPT-32.The IAF repeatedly rejecting its paper plane the HTT-40,resulted in the fast track import of the PC-7 MK2,which has furhter disillusioned a reluctant customer.

Tejas's long term future:
Will be dictated by HAL's ability to deliver this fighter to the highest stds. of industry,on time and cost.The IAF reluctantly agreed to the first batch of 20 MK1s which should be delivered to the ASTE in the second half of 2014 for operational trials before handing them over to No.45 Sqd. in 2015/16.

The LCA's final FOC will practically follow only 4 yrs, later by when the IAF would've recd. new gen aircraft from Europe (MMRCA),and 270 Flanker MKIs would've gone into service. If as is being argued,the LCA is already considered obsolescent now by some,what will it be 10 yrs. later on?

The second tranche of MK1s was cleared "politically" again to a very reluctant customer.Compounding the "usefulness" of the LCA in its LTP (Long Term Planning),is the time and cost aspect. HAL currently estimate that they cannot build more than 8 aircraft/yr/,at a cost of $48M each,more than the cost of a Gripen offered to the IAF in the MMRCA contest.

When series production starts,HAL would've produced just 15 LCAs.2 TDs,4 prototypes,and 8 LSPs,plus 1 NLCA all "virtually hand built"! HAL's production planning and execution has been hampered owing to inadequate or incorrect assembly tooling,perhaps also owing to delayed delivery of manufactured parts from outsourced vendors.The std. kit marshalling procedures are not being followed leading to severe hold ups.

The LCA's structure is primarily made up of composites.90% by surface and 45% by weight.The single vertical fin of advanced composites has been developed by NAL,which delivered the first set of (hand built) wings.As HAL is still not ready,NAL has been asked to build the fins or the first series of 20.It is a dev. lab not equipped to be a production facility.

Mk2 development far away.The F-414 will require much redesign of the fuselage,which will add weight to the already overweight MK1.,negating the very reason for a higher thrust engine.Thisis essential for the NLCA as well as the also planned 5th-gen AMCA to follow after the LCA.

In the IAF's planning,a successful LCA could be inducted in quantity for another 100 MK-2s,plus the 40MK1s,delivered during the 12th and 13th plan periods (2012-2022),about the same number as HF-24s built.Can HAL deliver 140 aircraft in 7 years time?

PS:AM Anil Chopra (retd) in another article,Depleting air assets,'Time for Full Throttle",quotes former chief ACM Browne,2 months before retiring worrying about the rapidly depleting numbers of the IAF's aircraft.

Fighter Sqd. strength is now down to just 34 sqds. from 42,and MIG-21 (M and Bis variants) pensioning off has been delayed to 2016! Bisons will continue to 2025,"8 years beyond planned"!

The article should be read in full,but here are his estimates of the future IAF fighter strength in 2020.a total of 36.

MIG-21 Bison X 4 sqds.

SU-30MKIs X 12

Mirage-2000 X 3

MIG-29 X 3

Jaguar X 4

MIG-27 X 2

MMRCA X 4

LCA X 3

FGFA X 1

Some of even these seem a trifle optimistic.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 25 Jul 2014 08:48

Sigh!! Pay $20 billion to the French for this, $10 bill per yr to Russians for that and so on.....! Does money grow on trees in India?

sankum · Post by **sankum** » 25 Jul 2014 08:55

My estimate of IAF Sq strength in 2020 at 34 sq. IAF will maintain a minimum 34sq by ordering additional Su30. Su 30 will form 14sq @19 nos/sq.

MIG-21 Bison X 5 sqds.

SU-30MKIs X 14

Mirage-2000 X 2

MIG-29 X 3

Jaguar X 6

MMRCA X 2

LCA X 2

vic · Post by **vic** » 25 Jul 2014 09:21

Can somebody give details of advertisements of Rafales appearing in Vayu?

vic · Post by **vic** » 25 Jul 2014 09:22

So IAF is ok with 1960s MIG 21s but LCA MARK 1 is unsatisfactory?

vic · Post by **vic** » 25 Jul 2014 09:44

As per public information from Brazil tender the cost of each Rafale will be USD 300 MILLION each plus escalation.

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 25 Jul 2014 09:45

Sagar G wrote:
MahaKaal wrote:I trust DRDO more than what some high-level officer APJ(overhyped by media into some kind of Godfather) says
Pray tell us why do his highness thinks that APJ is overhyped when on the ground level he is respected across the scientific class. How much do you know about Dr. Kalam to claim that he is "overhyped" and that too by none other than our own pressitutes !!!!!

Too bad the original poster got banned. However, he's right about APJ being overhyped by media somewhat. One thing about the man himself is he's rather modest (and doesn't claim anything that he is not), but the media portrays his skills as a lot more than reality. My info is based upon conversations with some of the real scientific types who have actually worked with him very closely for several years. His real best talent is that he's very good at herding cats and that is a very valuable skill when dealing with the real scientific types. Probably not the forum to discuss this though, so I won't go any further.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 25 Jul 2014 09:56

Philip wrote:The LCA's final FOC will practically follow only 4 yrs, later by when the IAF would've recd. new gen aircraft from Europe (MMRCA),and 270 Flanker MKIs would've gone into service.

The Rafale will also require years to get FoC and LCA is the same generation as the Rafale.

If as is being argued,the LCA is already considered obsolescent now by some,what will it be 10 yrs. later on?

Not much more outdated than the Rafale.

The second tranche of MK1s was cleared "politically" again to a very reluctant customer.Compounding the "usefulness" of the LCA in its LTP (Long Term Planning),is the time and cost aspect.

More or less every other fighter it has inducted till now was cleared "politically".

HAL currently estimate that they cannot build more than 8 aircraft/yr/,

Where did it claim that?

at a cost of $48M each,

HAL is asking for $26M each.

more than the cost of a Gripen offered to the IAF in the MMRCA contest.

How do you know what price the Gripen was quoted in the MRCA contest? AFAIK the SAAB's bid (and the other who didn't make the cut) was never opned.

When series production starts,HAL would've produced just 15 LCAs.2 TDs,4 prototypes,and 8 LSPs,plus 1 NLCA all "virtually hand built"!

Some time back people were cribbing that OFB's Dhanush production rate of a couple dozen guns per year was too slow, after the govt changed the new target becane 100 guns/year. Give HAL larger orders, remove the MRCA distraction and make it earn its keep, we will see a much better performance.

PS:AM Anil Chopra (retd) in another article,Depleting air assets,'Time for Full Throttle",quotes former chief ACM Browne,2 months before retiring worrying about the rapidly depleting numbers of the IAF's aircraft.

Fighter Sqd. strength is now down to just 34 sqds. from 42,and MIG-21 (M and Bis variants) pensioning off has been delayed to 2016! Bisons will continue to 2025,"8 years beyond planned"!

The article should be read in full,but here are his estimates of the future IAF fighter strength in 2020.a total of 36.

MIG-21 Bison X 4 sqds.

SU-30MKIs X 12

Mirage-2000 X 3

MIG-29 X 3

Jaguar X 4

MIG-27 X 2

MMRCA X 4

LCA X 3

FGFA X 1

Some of even these seem a trifle optimistic.

There will be 0 FGFAs (its production was stated to start only in 2022), 0 Mig-27s (to be retired by 2018), no more than 2 MRCA squadrons and likely no more than 2 suadonns of LCA if they decide not to buy anymore MK1s.

member_26622 · Post by **member_26622** » 25 Jul 2014 10:32

Bottom line - where is the order for 500 LCA MK1 from IAF/MOD? Can we pool cash and put up this hoarding outside IAF/MOD offices.

Why the minuscule 40 units? Are we planning to take on (defend is only real choice) PRC or Republic of Singapore? Someone in IAF needs to read up wiki on PRC Air Force. Does anyone in India believe that this magical french 100 Rafale planes will even move the needle during conflict with PRC. Why empty our pockets and put on handcuffs for 40 years then?

Imported Air Force 'IAF' leadership is on some kind of dope to even imagine going on the offensive with PRC with or without old hag Rafale( PRC comparison - 4 x economy, planes, ships, missiles, nuke warheads, 10x FOREX reserves ..... everything except population). We are now thinking like Pakistan nut-case mullahs.

For 500 LCA MK1 jet order, we can 'force' GE to make and refurbish F414 engines in India. No one will dance for 20 or 40 order units.

At the end of the day, all airplanes are just platforms (aka pizza dough). It's the toppings which matter in today's world (radar, munitions....). So spending so much on the Rafale dough is insanity^infinity. We get 500 LCA MK1 for say 10 billion and 500 LCA MK2 for another 10 billion (volume will drive down costs). 1000 LCA-avatars is some serious firepower to walk in to for anyone.

Save the bucks and invest in 5th gen plus + unmanned vehicles is kind of common sense. The lengths on which common sense has to be debated is admirable though. Only in India this can happen

vic · Post by **vic** » 25 Jul 2014 11:39

USD 30 Billion means 1000 LCAs, how can it be worse than 126 Rafales. Upfront 15% payment means Rs 30,000 crores in one go to Dassault. And how much have we spent on LCA TILL date around Rs. 5000 crore. Give 30,000 crore to a TATA, BIRLA, AMBANI and magic of indigenisation will happen pronto.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 25 Jul 2014 11:54

nik wrote:Bottom line - where is the order for 500 LCA MK1 from IAF/MOD? Can we pool cash and put up this hoarding outside IAF/MOD offices.

Where is LCA FOC which was promised by ADA/DRDO/HAL last year?

Where are 73 IJTs for which IAF have placed confirmed orders for? This order is supposed to grow to 200 after FOC.

Where are 200+ LCH/Armed ALH for which IAF have placed confirmed orders for?

At some point we have to admit that the pace at which production/development happens in our PSUs (i.e. HAL) is low and does not meet the expectations of its customers.

At this rate how do you expect them to commit such huge cash for a product whos time to market is a known unknown.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Jul 2014 12:03

FOC cannot be delivered by the ADA/DRDO/HAL. It is a function of the end user developing sufficient confidence in the platform. So that he can use it to the fullest.

In this respect, the delay could well be on account of the IAF conducting tests and developing tactics, that make the full use of the Aircraft and its performance envelop.

Also note, that as the end user, they would be as cautious as they can be. Cause I shudder to think, what would the reactions of the desi rudalies be, if one happens to crash during tests.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 25 Jul 2014 12:40

It's a mixed problem. Poor procurement process + inefficient PSU system + lack of a competitive university system + lack of strategic planning in both military and political circles. I think GoI is working hard behind the scenes to address all of these issues but it will take a decade or more in order to create a healthy defense sector. Jaitely has the right idea in bringing in private sector. This will help speed things along.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 25 Jul 2014 12:41

Sid wrote:At some point we have to admit that the pace at which production/development happens in our PSUs (i.e. HAL) is low and does not meet the expectations of its customers.

Its the very same HAL that's going to be manufacturing the Rafales. Its absurd to claim that the Tejas cannot be built in numbers but somehow Rafales will come pouring out of HAL's facilities.

At this rate how do you expect them to commit such huge cash for a product whos time to market is a known unknown.

The Tejas Mk1 is available here and now and the scale of production is a function of the size of the order book.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 25 Jul 2014 12:41

Just to reiterate - the MMRCA contract stipulates delivery of one squadron off-the-shelf between 36 months and 48 months of its signing. So, assuming the contract is signed in 2015, the IAF will have its first full squadron only by 2019.

This includes time taken for integration of India specific equipment - IFF, datalinks, HMDS, etc, factors that also make a temporary lease of in-service aircraft non-viable.

And while the hope is that HAL deliveries can begin by 2019, I wouldn't be surprised if the second squadron comes to full strength only after 2020.

Point is, for all the complaining about the LCA program running behind schedule, the Rafale is no panacea for the IAF's falling squadron strength either.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 25 Jul 2014 13:18

Viv S wrote:
Sid wrote:At some point we have to admit that the pace at which production/development happens in our PSUs (i.e. HAL) is low and does not meet the expectations of its customers.
Its the very same HAL that's going to be manufacturing the Rafales. Its absurd to claim that the Tejas cannot be built in numbers but somehow Rafales will come pouring out of HAL's facilities.

And wasn't that the reason why Dassult was dragging its feet on work share with HAL? Because they didn't wanted to be liable to delay caused at HAL end?

Viv S wrote:
At this rate how do you expect them to commit such huge cash for a product whos time to market is a known unknown.
The Tejas Mk1 is available here and now and the scale of production is a function of the size of the order book.

Incorrect, problem is not scale of production but speed of production. How much time is it taking a product to reach its stipulated market? That's what matters the most.

Even if the production line is setup for 40 fighter plane, does not mean that each plane should take 3-4 years to roll out. I can understand that warm up time in setting up the processes and assembly line might take some initial time, but that's a one time process.

Does lower order means you have to work in slow motion? We still haven't seen SP1 roll out.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 25 Jul 2014 14:04

IMVHO, Armed forces does not have the mandate to indigenise weapon systems in India. They should be part of the process so that they can own the weapon system as whole, but not the initiation of all things.

Their mandate is to protect the country no matter what the cost is.

Indigenization must a national goal, sanctioned and pushed from top down. Do that and everyone will follow.

If LCA program is this nation's mission then it must be supported whole heartily (and by law), not with mere lip service.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 25 Jul 2014 15:58

Sid wrote:
Viv S wrote:Its the very same HAL that's going to be manufacturing the Rafales. Its absurd to claim that the Tejas cannot be built in numbers but somehow Rafales will come pouring out of HAL's facilities.
And wasn't that the reason why Dassult was dragging its feet on work share with HAL? Because they didn't wanted to be liable to delay caused at HAL end?

How does the issue of liability change the basic fact here i.e. the risk of delays applies to the Rafale as well?

Incorrect, problem is not scale of production but speed of production. How much time is it taking a product to reach its stipulated market? That's what matters the most.

The Tejas will have its FOC in 2015, the Rafale in IAF service will have the same only by 2018. So that's a three year gap in induction to start with. More than sufficient time to scale up production, if additional orders come through.

Even if the production line is setup for 40 fighter plane, does not mean that each plane should take 3-4 years to roll out. I can understand that warm up time in setting up the processes and assembly line might take some initial time, but that's a one time process.

A smaller order will always be delivered at a lower rate of production, otherwise the result will be a fast mothballing of a large production facility. Case in point: Arjun MBT -

Production Capacity: 50 tanks/yr
Actual Production: 0 tanks/yr

Does lower order means you have to work in slow motion? We still haven't seen SP1 roll out.

The first Rafale will be delivered only by 2018. The first HAL built Rafale will roll out earliest by 2019.

This is acceptable but an SP1 a few months late is not?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 25 Jul 2014 16:39

how 2018 ??? only when the deal is signed as soon as possible, what it they sign the deal in 2015, will they still deliver the first A/C in 2018 ???

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 25 Jul 2014 16:49

Viv S wrote: The first Rafale will be delivered only by 2018. The first HAL built Rafale will roll out earliest by 2019.

This is acceptable but an SP1 a few months late is not?

You are comparing apple Vs oranges. Speed of production at Rafale from Dassault plant will never be same as HAL. Despite 200+ MKI order, HAL cannot could not put more produce more planes in time and ultimately ended up assembling more CKD units of MKI.

They have process problem, which was also raised quite a few time by ADA and other people. AFAIK they also sought some consulting to optimize their assembly lines.

And judging by current speed LCA FOC in 2015 is still a pipe dream. Forget about MK-II.

Please don't think that I don't support LCA, I am a die hard fan of it. But your equation of dropping Rafael and ordering 200+ LCA just on the basis of timeline was not sitting well in my mind.

vic · Post by **vic** » 25 Jul 2014 18:11

If Hal is incompetent and could not get production line ready inspite of 30 yesr preparation time, then what's wrong in involving pvt sector?

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 25 Jul 2014 18:33

For those who crib about HAL ADA NAL etc - actually meeting a lot of them - they are hard working people.To put it into perspective how work their is jeopardized by poltiicians - one Raksha Mantri who was from UP actively stalled the LCA and other projects so that they could get foreign planes in etc etc.This has been going on for decades - active sabotage by our own people for other interests. as anothe example why did Canara Bank have to suddenly change its logo ? Guess whome all the orders for the revamp went to ? The list goes on and on.Similary IAF with ever changing targets and requirements refusing to freeze requirements for a particular version etc.I ahve seen these people working hard to reach targets and of course there will be some lazy people but most of them really want to work hard and see their babies they ahve developed flourish.No wonder Kalam gave them an impassioned speech during IOC of Tejas reminding them of all the difficulties they had to go through.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 25 Jul 2014 18:47

krishnan wrote:how 2018 ??? only when the deal is signed as soon as possible, what it they sign the deal in 2015, will they still deliver the first A/C in 2018 ???

The MMRCA RFP stipulates that the delivery of the first squadron is to take place starting 36 months after contract signing and ending within 48 months.

So for a deal signed in FY 2015-16, deliveries are to take place 2018-2019. If the IAF requests expediency it might get a small batch by late 2017 but that's about it.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 25 Jul 2014 18:56

ArmenT wrote:Too bad the original poster got banned. However, he's right about APJ being overhyped by media somewhat. One thing about the man himself is he's rather modest (and doesn't claim anything that he is not), but the media portrays his skills as a lot more than reality. My info is based upon conversations with some of the real scientific types who have actually worked with him very closely for several years. His real best talent is that he's very good at herding cats and that is a very valuable skill when dealing with the real scientific types. Probably not the forum to discuss this though, so I won't go any further.

I can accept the fact that the best technical mind rarely gets to be the head of an institution but that is not a necessity to be a good leader unlike popular perception, instead the best technical mind is rarely a good leader. Dr. Kalam's leadership is unquestionable, he got a lot of things done which is more important than debating about his technical prowess. Maybe he wasn't the best tech mind in DRDO at that point of time but how many question his leadership skills ??? Media paints a picture of each and everyone in a way that they think will get them more eyeballs so media portrayal of people isn't any gold standard to judge about anyone instead we must look into the legacy they have left to decide how capable the person was. I know of a person who headed an institution, was corrupt but delivered a great deal and ran that institution with utmost discipline. The next one who followed was a no show, a dhimmi (that's the picture I got) and fortunes of the institution went down with him.

So given a choice whom will you appoint as a head of an institution the first one or the second one ??? As in design so in real life there are always tradeoffs.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 25 Jul 2014 19:36

Sid wrote:You are comparing apple Vs oranges. Speed of production at Rafale from Dassault plant will never be same as HAL. Despite 200+ MKI order, HAL cannot could not put more produce more planes in time and ultimately ended up assembling more CKD units of MKI.

They have process problem, which was also raised quite a few time by ADA and other people. AFAIK they also sought some consulting to optimize their assembly lines.

There are absolutely no technical restrictions on the rate at which HAL builds aircraft as long as the orders are sufficient to justify the expense of augmenting capacity. If they can build a line that delivers 12 aircraft annually, they can build two that deliver 24 every year.

Of course, the relative lack of production experience might mean that expected cost efficiencies aren't completely achieved, which given the aircraft's already cheap cost shouldn't be an issue. Unfortunately, HAL is expected to watch every rupee (while billions are spent on imports), so delays become a possibility while it squeezes as much as it can from its existing facilities and resources.

Make the production rate instead of cost a priority (sanction funding for a second production line) and numbers will not be a problem.

And judging by current speed LCA FOC in 2015 is still a pipe dream. Forget about MK-II.

Are you aware of the level of progress made with the FOC specific requirements: R-77, Python 5 and gun integration, new radome, testing of new drop tanks, flight envelope expansion and so on? I'm not , so please share.

Please don't think that I don't support LCA, I am a die hard fan of it. But your equation of dropping Rafael and ordering 200+ LCA just on the basis of timeline was not sitting well in my mind.

The purpose of the aircraft was not to gain admirers, it was to provide the service with a cost effective but credible fighter to keep its numerical strength up. The LCA program has delivered on that.

With our finances already strained, a whopping $20 billion+ on new Rafales will reduce the Tejas to a lost opportunity. Unless one is satisfied by merely having a fighter with an Indian label flying somewhere, that is not acceptable. It should be ordered because it delivers amazing value, not just because it is an Indian product.

member_26622 · Post by **member_26622** » 25 Jul 2014 20:22

One cannot fail someone unless they are allowed an opportunity to sit and take the exam to begin with - So 500 LCA-MK1 in 5 years or HAL is history is the clear message which needs to emanate from MOD(I).

Checked wiki page on 'option' of importing Rafale from France -> even-though it will be as good as striking a death knell on Indian airplane design capability forever (aka need our generation to wipe out the financial debt)
So here is what I knew to begin with : Dassault is the farthest from mass production capability as one can imagine. Mass production is an American and Russian forte period - not our colonial masters british or self proclaiming revolutionary french, may be the warring german but not french for sure. Facts to back it are on wiki page of Rafale - pasted below

Produced 1986–present
Number built 130 (as of June 2014)[1][2]

This is less than 14 planes per year - that's how much HAL will ship in a bad month. Check order book and delivery from HAL newsletter - MKI, HAWK, PILATUS, DO 228, DHRUV, ...... and overhauling and upkeep of IAF harem of Aircraft+Engines types. (http://www.hal-india.com/Annual-Report- ... nglish.pdf)

Bottom line - HAL's baggage is like combining MIG+SUKHOI+BAE+DASSAULT... Not surprised if this behemoth cannot focus on any one thing. Give the marching order and then let's talk is my simple message. Let HAL know their survival depends on completing this order. Trust no one and monitor everyone in the supply chain. Deploy troops at manufacturing+management buildings - instill fear of repercussions - not joking here but need to administer bitter medicine

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 25 Jul 2014 21:04

^^^
Actually according to wiki production started in 1992, and till date they have around 130 thats a rate of 6 per year. OH MY GWAD!!

member_26622 · Post by **member_26622** » 25 Jul 2014 21:34

Sorry about my math error ! it's thirty years for 130 airframes. I counted 20 years - Positive gora bias crept in and affected counting here.

Did not expect French would be this bad (actually word is s***ty). I get why the Dassault-HAL partnership is not going anywhere. HAL knows that they will have to teach Dassault how to mass produce planes

vic · Post by **vic** » 25 Jul 2014 23:43

I think Mirage 2000 upgrade is also at a super rate of 5 planes per annum

John · Post by **John** » 26 Jul 2014 02:17

vic wrote:If Hal is incompetent and could not get production line ready inspite of 30 yesr preparation time, then what's wrong in involving pvt sector?

Involving private sector that is blasphemy lets go back to blaming things on import lobby, corruption and global conspiracy...

Make the production rate instead of cost a priority (sanction funding for a second production line) and numbers will not be a problem.

For any business Cost is always a priority but the key is being able to manage it while maximizing output. Increase revenue while reducing production costs. i have seen vendors using that excuse all the time but the true reason they don't have their act together and simply cannot scale their production lines without the practices falling apart. They want to enjoy juicy profit margins without taking the risks.

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 26 Jul 2014 07:04

With apologies for this inconsequential post, I have to say that this thread has been difficult to absorb lately. For the lack of better words, it seems like there is a LCA post-mortem analysis going on and I think that is very unfair. It would be fair to say that there is a virtual blackout of authoritative news regarding the LCA. The same is frequently the case for many other projects as well - like the Kaveri, Nirbhay, Saras, etc. It doesn't mean they're all dead. Schrödinger knew better than to assume the worst.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 26 Jul 2014 07:14

Sagar G wrote:
ArmenT wrote:Too bad the original poster got banned. However, he's right about APJ being overhyped by media somewhat. One thing about the man himself is he's rather modest (and doesn't claim anything that he is not), but the media portrays his skills as a lot more than reality. My info is based upon conversations with some of the real scientific types who have actually worked with him very closely for several years. His real best talent is that he's very good at herding cats and that is a very valuable skill when dealing with the real scientific types. Probably not the forum to discuss this though, so I won't go any further.
I can accept the fact that the best technical mind rarely gets to be the head of an institution but that is not a necessity to be a good leader unlike popular perception, instead the best technical mind is rarely a good leader. Dr. Kalam's leadership is unquestionable, he got a lot of things done which is more important than debating about his technical prowess. Maybe he wasn't the best tech mind in DRDO at that point of time but how many question his leadership skills ??? Media paints a picture of each and everyone in a way that they think will get them more eyeballs so media portrayal of people isn't any gold standard to judge about anyone instead we must look into the legacy they have left to decide how capable the person was. I know of a person who headed an institution, was corrupt but delivered a great deal and ran that institution with utmost discipline. The next one who followed was a no show, a dhimmi (that's the picture I got) and fortunes of the institution went down with him.

So given a choice whom will you appoint as a head of an institution the first one or the second one ??? As in design so in real life there are always tradeoffs.

IF at all India needs any person it is a project manager or a leader of sorts - to get things done.

What use are all these other people who are great scientists but cannot - for whatever reason - get things completed?

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 26 Jul 2014 11:04

Is there any article about how navy plans to use NLCA ?

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 26 Jul 2014 13:31

nik wrote:Produced 1986–present
Number built 130 (as of June 2014)[1][2]

This is less than 14 planes per year - that's how much HAL will ship in a bad month. Check order book and delivery from HAL newsletter - MKI, HAWK, PILATUS, DO 228, DHRUV, ...... and overhauling and upkeep of IAF harem of Aircraft+Engines types. (http://www.hal-india.com/Annual-Report- ... nglish.pdf)

To be fair it also built plenty of Mirages 1985-1995, and about 20 odd units post-2000. Dassault also has the civilian Falcon jet line and its supply chain probably also contracts for the thriving EADS/Airbus.

Of course, it doesn't change the fact that that military aircraft production in France is in a emaciated state right now and if export orders don't come through, Rafale production will likely end by 2019. Same for rest of Europe too; end of domestic fighter production with the only residual hope being the possibility of UCAV production after 2025 (exception being Sweden where Gripen-E production will carry on till 2022).