PAK-FA and FGFA: News & Discussion - June 2014

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 23 Feb 2016 00:37

Unless you use a sharp object, you can't remove a thorn from your body. A corrective system if it happens, make it so! be it PAKFA turning AMCA->AHCA, is all we care! possibility .99 , probability as of now is 0.1

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 23 Feb 2016 01:08

Chakra.in wrote:2017 will bring 2 T-50-11 prototypes, which will be very close to the initial Limited Serial Production of PakFA for Russian induction (minimum of 12 by 2020).

That's looks very dubious at this point. If they're to be delivered between 2019 & 2020, long lead production on those LSPs needs to start right away. And given that the program still needs to deliver another five prototypes, the earliest that's likely to happen is late 2017, which would push the delivery date for the production units past 2020.

As far as India is concerned, we need to plan for our variant of the bird (with the new engine) to arrive no earlier than 2025. The trouble of course is that the Chinese program (no doubt far better funded) is running ahead of the PAK FA with serial production already having commenced.

China appears ready to begin mass production of first stealth fighter jet, state media suggest

srai · Post by **srai** » 23 Feb 2016 04:58

Given the progress of PAK-FA, India can wait for finalizing its FGFA variant of it. FGFA is designed to occupy the same slot in the heavy category as its Su-30MKIs and so would be a replacement for them down the road. Probably a good idea to let PAK-FA mature quite a bit and then use that as a baseline for FGFA customization. Target in-service date post 2030. By then, the oldest Flankers would be around 30 years old and would need to be replaced.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Feb 2016 05:06

to let PAK-FA mature quite a bit

Everyone seems to agree on that point (outside of sputnik and a few others). The real question is what needs to "mature". We know one item: engine. What else is on that list? Clearly (again) the RuAF itself seems to be ordering only 12 (one squadron) and the IAF has a list of things against it. So, the list for maturing techs seem to be a serious matter, certainly not something related to older gen planes. If they were related to older gen planes then there would be good amount of confidence all around - Su-27/30s are an example, a lot of confidence in pretty much anything associated with them.

I just do not think this is a small problem. For sure it is big enough to ask for $8 billion, on TOP of what is already spent. And India has waited this long to put her toes into the water. Serious stuff. Just that we do not know how serious.

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 23 Feb 2016 05:30

Viv S wrote:
Chakra.in wrote:2017 will bring 2 T-50-11 prototypes, which will be very close to the initial Limited Serial Production of PakFA for Russian induction (minimum of 12 by 2020).
That's looks very dubious at this point. If they're to be delivered between 2019 & 2020, long lead production on those LSPs needs to start right away. And given that the program still needs to deliver another five prototypes, the earliest that's likely to happen is late 2017, which would push the delivery date for the production units past 2020.

PakFA initial variant will be done with state testing this year.

From head of RuAF:

“I am 100 percent sure that we will finish joint state tests this year. This aircraft should be batch produced the following year,” Bondarev told reporters.
“Today, the 11th and last of the T-50 series is 60-70 percent ready.”

http://sputniknews.com/military/2016012 ... ak-fa.html
https://www.rt.com/news/329964-pak-jet- ... on-russia/

So PakFA is going into limited serial production by 2017.

However, there will be a 'stage 2' variant coming in 2018, with new engines and some other small changes.

http://in.rbth.com/economics/defence/20 ... 018_547005

This is very similar to what is being done with Tejas. Initial 20 order of Mk1, then +100 Mk1a. It is the new engine type variants that IAF even wants. Russia formerly offered 50 some fighters of this initial production batch variant without new engines, but IAF declined stating they were not satisfied due to uncertainties about capabilities.

NRao wrote:
2017 will bring 2 T-50-11 prototypes, which will be very close to the initial Limited Serial Production of PakFA for Russian induction (minimum of 12 by 2020). Going by some rumors it may be that 1 of the T-50-11 prototypes in 2017 might be going to India. It would explain the new push by MoD and HAL for negotiations along with the newer, cheaper contract. However, this means buying into the PakFA before the new supercruise-capable engines, izdeliye 30 , are ready and certified. Instead, India is just taking Russia's word that new engines will be finished by 2019-20 as a 'drop-in' replacement.
What rumors? IF they are true, then it is worse than what we think it to be. The $4 billion R&D was expected to produce 3 prototypes, starting 3 years from now, at one per year. No? Has that changed to send a prototype - one not associated with the R&D and India pays $4 billion?

Also, I was under the impression that the RuAF was supposed to get a bunch starting this year.

It comes from another forum, and I don't know exactly where he gets his information but he has been reporting on prototype development, not speculation, for quite some time with a very high level of accuracy and unusual level of detail.

We have an update:

T-50-3 - Completion of work on the engine control unit.
T-50-4 - Completion of work on the airconditioning unit and the information-control system.

The decision has been made to cancel the T-50-12 static unit and instead make two T-50-11 type planes in 2017.

http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthre ... a974d2ea58

From statements made by the head of RuAF posted above, the T-50-11 will be the final prototype, and the second one made later in the year is strongly hinted at going to India. Because batch production would have started by then, and there will be no need for another duplicate prototype for Russian testing.

The $3.7Billion will go into R&D for Sukhoi, but it will also mean getting some 'ToT' on the manufacturing process and 3 initial prototypes. Just like how some Su-30 were produced, flown, and tested before the specific Su-30MKI came up, it makes sense that IAF would be able to fly the PakFA and HAL get a closer look at it before the FGFA variant comes along. IAF will have to give inputs on design, capabilities, and user interface on current PakFA that will of course factor into the FGFA. The whole gripe with IAF on the whole deal has been that they still have not been able to fly the plane and give inputs on capabilities. If PakFA cannot be inspected and tested, I don't even see how it would be possible to make FGFA in the first place. What would they be using to benchmark and improve upon?

So one would expect the prototypes:

1. Initial batch PakFA prototype coming in 2017 to test and fly, inputs from IAF given
2. A second prototype with changes in 2018-2020, hopefully with new engines.
3. A final prototype very close to the final production variant sometime 2020-2022

Then HAL can setup the assembly lines in the few years following once FGFA is finalized to have production up and running by no later than 2025. Considering the quoted 7 year development, this would fit nicely as well. 2016-17+7=2023-24. Of course, as I mentioned this is a leap of faith about whether or not engines will be finished on time and everything else goes smoothly. It is a huge risk no matter how you look at it. It also assumes that IAF will be satisfied with less changes to PakFA and single seater, as there is no way $3.7B will be able to fund a major redesign.

This is of course if the new contract is signed. Other option is to sit and wait on it until platform is fully mature with mature engines and avionics, however long that may take, and then purchase it. This would mean a 2030 induction without ToT that could help AMCA program, risking J-20 or J-31 being mature and exported to Paki on soft loans, and the possibility that 6th generation jets prototypes will be out in America, Eurofighter consortium, and Chine. No, I think MoD is making the right decision here trying to negotiations restarted and a contract signed.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 23 Feb 2016 06:02

Chakra.in wrote:PakFA initial variant will be done with state testing this year.

From head of RuAF:
“I am 100 percent sure that we will finish joint state tests this year. This aircraft should be batch produced the following year,” Bondarev told reporters.
“Today, the 11th and last of the T-50 series is 60-70 percent ready.”
http://sputniknews.com/military/2016012 ... ak-fa.html
https://www.rt.com/news/329964-pak-jet- ... on-russia/

He's being (excessively) optimistic. The first PAK FA prototype flew in Jan 2010. Its been over six years, and the program has delivered just four prototypes in the interim (plus one replacement). If one now predicts that all the remaining five prototypes will be delivered within the next 12-18 months, it would be prudent to remain at least moderately sceptical.

So PakFA is going into limited serial production by 2017.

However, there will be a 'stage 2' variant coming in 2018, with new engines and some other small changes.

If all goes well, they'll start series production in 2017-18 with deliveries starting in 2020 (unless they wish to adopt an F-35-style concurrency program and commit to a major retrofit program).

With regard to the second-stage variant, keep in mind, bench-testing of the new engine is to begin in 2018 (assuming there aren't any further delays). The actual aircraft integration isn't likely to complete before 2025.

Edit: Just read the article you linked. It says the same thing -

Vladimir Prokhvatilov, expert at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, said the engines “will be brought to a fully operational state no earlier than 2025”.

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 23 Feb 2016 06:27

Viv S wrote: He's being (excessively) optimistic. The first PAK FA prototype flew in Jan 2010. Its been over six years, and the program has delivered just four prototypes in the interim (plus one replacement). If one now predicts that all the remaining five prototypes will be delivered within the next 12-18 months, it would be prudent to remain at least moderately sceptical.

Where are u getting the 'remaining five prototypes' from? The initial batch with at least 1 squad, or 12 fighters, based on last prototypes are starting production in 2017. This has been confirmed multiple times at the highest level. When the head of the RuAF says

“I am 100 percent sure that we will finish joint state tests this year. This aircraft should be batch produced the following year,”

So there will be batch production of PakFA with current design and engine types. If the contract with India is signed, 1 of these production types will probably be headed off to India for analysis and testing to prep for FGFA changes.

Viv S wrote:
So PakFA is going into limited serial production by 2017.
However, there will be a 'stage 2' variant coming in 2018, with new engines and some other small changes.
If all goes well, they'll start series production in 2017-18 with deliveries starting in 2020 (unless they wish to adopt an F-35-style concurrency program and commit to a major retrofit program).

With regard to the second-stage variant, keep in mind, bench-testing of the new engine is to begin in 2018 (assuming there aren't any further delays). The actual aircraft integration isn't likely to complete before 2025.

Edit: Just read the article you linked. It says the same thing -

Vladimir Prokhvatilov, expert at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, said the engines “will be brought to a fully operational state no earlier than 2025”.

Full operational state != Aircraft integration.

Those are two entirely different levels. Aircraft can have engines integrated but not in 'Full Operational State'. Russians are claiming that engines will be integrated with the air-frame and flying for 'Stage 2' of prototypes and testing by 2018. If FGFA contract is signed by then, the new engines would also be integrated and tested on a prototype for FGFA a short time after. However, whether or not Russia can truly deliver on time is unknown. It is a gamble either way. Either betting J-20 and J-31 will not be ready anytime soon and are not capable, and so MoD has plenty of time to spare. Or betting that FGFA will be ready and completed in a timely manner with proper capabilities to counter J-20 and J-31 which are rumored to be entering production soon.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Feb 2016 06:52

Chakra.in,

Thanks!! I *think* I have a better picture based on your two posts.

So, here is my thinking. The "prototype" supposedly being sent to India (let us assume it is being sent) is purely for evaluation by he IAF. This is as a result of the IAF complaining they have not had access to a T-50 - ever. And, the Russians claiming their current law does no permit foreign pilots flying such planes in Russian air space (posted link earlier).

IF this happens, this is a very good first step. The IAF gets to take it apart and make sure things are in place.

However, this could *also* be a bad move for Sukhoi/FGFA. IF the IAF finds it is an inferior plane - as some within the IAF have suggested, then something unpleasant will hit the fan.

So, may I venture to propose that this Russia pre-production prototype could make or break this deal?

IAF evaluates it. Then they have to determine if the plane can form the foundation for what the IAF wants + needs. IF it does not meet then that is the end of that story. IF it is capable of meeting then they will focus on the time and cost. Only then will or will not India sign the deal.

Personally, and I am not paid - before anyone makes such a claim - I think this is not going through. It will be pretty much like the Rafale deal. Flounder around for a few more years and the case closed.

My gut feel is that the techs will not wow the IAF and the engine nowhere in sight will break the deal.

BUT, if the deal does go through, then the eval of the T-50 prototype will feed into the R&D, which will then produce 3 prototypes as a result of the R&D phase. Heck, these T-50 prototypes have NOT EVEN considered the efforts of the $295 mill pre-design!!!!

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 23 Feb 2016 08:01

^

While there is a huge risk in MoD signing away the contract and having the IAF find out the plane is not to their liking and needs some major redesign, I think the FGFA will, one way or another, be developed into the heavy A2A fighter to replace Su-30MKI. Even if it means pumping more money and delaying orders to alter the PakFA airframe in a major way, which would be the worst case scenario.

I say this because I do not see an alternative on the market. While there are many engines suitable for low and medium class fighter jets. This class of engines for heavy fighter jets is currently only being made by 3 countries. US, Chine, and Russia. And here only Russia will be willing to sell, assemble, and indigenize the engines in India.

So even if AMCA is re-purposed as an AHCA to replace Su-30MKI, nobody will be willing to supply engines. Least of all the Russians. And no one knows when indigenous engines of this class could be developed, but I doubt they could materialize for bench testing before 2035. Far too late, and far more expensive than just repurposing the PakFA into something the IAF wants.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Feb 2016 19:12

Chakra.in,

So, what you are saying is something new (to me), that India cannot field a heavy A/F without a Russian based engine. That in a sentence. ??????

So, I did a little bit of research. I hate the way Russians name their projects, add and delete a single alpha and the product is something else (but anyways, I have to live with it):

Wiki wrote: Related to the 117S is the izdeliye 117 (AL-41F1), a highly improved AL-31F derivative designed for the Sukhoi T-50 fighter. The engine features an increased diameter fan, new high and low pressure turbines, and a digital control system (FADEC). According to Sukhoi director Mikhail Pogosyan, the 117 is a new fifth generation engine built specifically for the PAK FA. Though the specifics of the 117 engine remain classified, the engine's thrust was increased by 24.5 kN (5,500 lbs) over the AL-31 while the engine weight was reduced by 150 kg (330 lb). The new engine produces 147 kN (33,067 lbf) of thrust in afterburner and has a dry weight of 1,420 kg (3,130 lb) and thrust-to-weight ratio of 10.5:1.[16] Like the AL-31F, the 117 has 4 low-pressure compressor (fan) and 9 high-pressure compressor stages.[17] Mikhail Pogosyan further mentioned that the 117 engine meets the Russian Air Force requirements and will be installed in production PAK-FA fighter which will be supplied to the Russian Air Force and prospective foreign clients.[18]

The 117 is an interim engine meant for prototype and initial production batches of the T-50. The definitive second stage for the aircraft is designated izdeliye 30 and will eventually replace the 117 after 2020. The new engine has increased thrust and fuel efficiency as well as improved reliability and lower costs. Bench testing of the new engine will start in 2014 according to the general designer-director of the NPO Saturn Eugeny Marchuk

(And I love how people interchangeably use lbf, Kn, kg, lb, etc - portraying a deep understanding of these units, when all they had to do is use just one of them throughout!!!!!! Science for you. Confuse people)

So, back to the topic: AL-31F ---> AL-41F1 ---> izdeliye 30? Is that the path? The 31 is already in planes. Is the 41 installed or is it the one supposed to come out in 2018? And the I-30 comes out after 2020?

Question:

As I understand it (I do not follow these engines closely), for this 41 and I-30 effort the Russians have actually pooled all the resources from every engine shop in Russia. Granted they have funding issues - that they have had for some time now, pre oil price drop. They also offered to co-develop with India (I assume the I-30 engine). So, what gives? Just trying to figure out why are they having problems that they cannot solve internally, with all the brain power (and they have plenty of that for sure)?

And, what makes anyone think that India can actually rely on Russia for such an important item? When it seems that the Russians are relying on India for something? Again, trying to gather data points and learn.

From what I have read in open source, my conclusion has been that they have plenty of brains, but lack in PM and funds. As a result they are way behind what they claim to have achieved. Forget in comparison to others. Comments?

{BTW, my "T" key is broken, as a result some of my words may lack a "t", sorry}

Added later:

Compilation:

GE F414 Enhanced - 26,000lb (116kN)
Saturn AL-31F/AL-31FN - 27,998lb (124.5kN)
Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-229 - 29,160lb (129.7kN)
GE F110-GE-129 - 29,500lb (131kN)
Saturn AL-31F (42 Series) M1 - 29,762lb (132kN)
Saturn AL-31FN Series 3 - 30,800lb (137kN)
Saturn-Lyulka 117S - 31,967lb (142kN)
GE F110-GE-132 - 32,500lb (144.5kN)
Pratt & Whitney F119-PW-100 - 35,000lb (156kN)
Pratt & Whitney F135 - 43,000lb (191.3kN)

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 23 Feb 2016 19:37

Chakra.in wrote:Where are u getting the 'remaining five prototypes' from? The initial batch with at least 1 squad, or 12 fighters, based on last prototypes are starting production in 2017. This has been confirmed multiple times at the highest level.

List of prototypes:

T-50-1 - first flight Jan 2010
T-50-2 - first flight Mar 2011
T-50-3 - first flight Aug 2012
T-50-4 - first flight Dec 2012
T-50-5 - first flight Oct 2013
T-50-6 - first flight Feb 2016 (re-designated T-50-5)

Further prototypes planned:

T-50-6-2
T-50-7 (static testing),
T-50-8
T-50-9
T-50-10
T-50-11

Batch production with the current design (T-50-6) is untenable since plenty of development is still pending. Its more likely that they'll base the LSPs off the T-50-8, which will likely start flight testing in 2017. With the batch production being sanctioned in late 2017, deliveries should commence in 2020, barring further delays, with the first batch of 12 RuAF fighters becoming operational in 2021.

I was assuming that the remaining three prototypes will probably be used in the development of the second stage variant delivered for India after 2025. If however the RuAF's aircraft are to be based off the T-50-11 (as Bondarev's statement suggests), then the acceptance could be further delayed to 2018, and deliveries would almost certainly begin post-2020.

When the head of the RuAF says
“I am 100 percent sure that we will finish joint state tests this year. This aircraft should be batch produced the following year,”
So there will be batch production of PakFA with current design and engine types. If the contract with India is signed, 1 of these production types will probably be headed off to India for analysis and testing to prep for FGFA changes.

Its best not to take these statements at face value. Case in point -

The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian air forces added that all the PAK FA prototypes will be moved to the State Proving Flying Center named after Chkalov (Astrakhan Region) in March 2013 in order to take part in the state testing. The fighter’s serial production should be launched in 2015. - Dec 2012

Prototypes for India (and Russia) i.e. the second stage variant will probably be funded and built from the $8 bn joint R&D budget.

Vladimir Prokhvatilov, expert at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, said the engines “will be brought to a fully operational state no earlier than 2025”.

Full operational state != Aircraft integration.

Semantics. By 'complete aircraft integration' I obviously meant 'bring to operational status'.

Those are two entirely different levels. Aircraft can have engines integrated but not in 'Full Operational State'. Russians are claiming that engines will be integrated with the air-frame and flying for 'Stage 2' of prototypes and testing by 2018.

Nope. They're saying bench-testing will begin in 'late 2018'. Typically it would take another two or three years to go from that to the first flight. And thereafter another three to four years of testing to be certified for operational flights.

If FGFA contract is signed by then, the new engines would also be integrated and tested on a prototype for FGFA a short time after. However, whether or not Russia can truly deliver on time is unknown. It is a gamble either way. Either betting J-20 and J-31 will not be ready anytime soon and are not capable, and so MoD has plenty of time to spare. Or betting that FGFA will be ready and completed in a timely manner with proper capabilities to counter J-20 and J-31 which are rumored to be entering production soon.

With the FGFA slated to be powered by the new Article 30 engine, induction will happen only after 2025. A batch of interim variant PAK FAs might be acquired but it will inevitably face serviceability/induction issues and the IAF would be looking to avoid such hassles.

As far as the Chinese are concerned, the J-31's progress has been very patchy but the J-20 has finally gone into series production. They'll also face inevitable teething problems over the next few years, but the advantage for them is that they can induct it very significant quantities to offset such issues (the J-10 program providing an apt example).

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 24 Feb 2016 08:02

^
I guess we will have to just wait and see, information about the program future is unclear. I am expecting 1-2 first batch PakFAs role out in 2017 and continue to 2020 from their comments, not production fund sanctioning. But perhaps I am being overly optimistic taking their statements at face value.

NRao wrote:Chakra.in,
So, what you are saying is something new (to me), that India cannot field a heavy A/F without a Russian based engine. That in a sentence. ??????

No.

What I am saying is that no nation (US or Russia) is going to give a proper engine in the +150KN class for an indigenous heavy fighter aircraft. So even if AMCA was re-purposed into AHCA ('Advanced Heavy Combat Aircraft') to be the replacement for Su-30MKI, nobody who makes these engine types would be willing to supply them. India will need to make their own indigenous engines for these types of heavy indigenous fighters, just like Chine did for J-20. I don't see this happening until 2030 minimum.

So IAF and MoD are almost forced into either scrapping any ideal replacement for Su-30MKI in the future for heavy fighter class or just accept FGFA program as the replacement. If IAF wants to keep their Low-Med-High doctrine of fighters, I don't see there being any alternative right now for the the 'High' fighters apart from FGFA. That is why I have high confidence in FGFA coming through.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Feb 2016 10:13

The pressure will mount within the IAF when the J-20 arrives in whatever form in PLAAF colours. The IAF will not want to be left out of the stealth stakes. At that point of time,the IAF/MOD might decide that acquiring a number of T-50s,built to Russian stds but with a few desi tweaks as was done with the MKI,a couple of sqds perhaps,may suffice. Developing and building our own version will take not less than 5 years given our LCA track record and production stats,how many/yr? Anyone's guess,but certainly not enough to meet our requirements.

The news in the SU-30 td about the extra 40 MKIs coming,decided after Mr.Modi's Moscow visit, apart from whatever happens to the Rafale,plus the DM's statement about how far India can go costwise,shows that Plan B has already been put into action. The quest now is for the second "cheap" fighter to replace the hundreds of MIG types being pensioned off.

member_28700 · Post by **member_28700** » 24 Feb 2016 14:29

The quest now is for the second "cheap" fighter to replace the hundreds of MIG types being pensioned off.

I dont quite understand how these 2nd "cheap" fighters would help replace the hundreds of Migs. It would take India at least an year or 2 before it decided it wants which fighter. Next our quest for TOT and MII will lead to long and never-ending negotiations. Although the supplier base for these fighters is created, India would want supplies to be sourced out of India which these companies have promised but boy were it that easy to set up a supplier base, HAL would not have struggled so much.

All in all even if we go for a 2nd cheap fighter, it would be 4-5 years by the time we get our first deliveries and by then HAL's LCA rates would have been streamlined. Seems better either ways to invest in LCA supply chain and increase delivery rates.
Also, these so-called cheap fighters with TOT and MII conditions would not be coming for any less than $100m a pop compared to less than $50m for our LCA even including setting up assembly lines.

srai · Post by **srai** » 24 Feb 2016 18:28

^^^

Cheap fighters

:

LCA Mk.1/1A/2 -> 200+
Combat Hawk -> 150+
Combat IJT -> 100+
Combat HTT-40 -> 100+

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Feb 2016 19:26

What I am saying is that no nation (US or Russia) is going to give a proper engine in the +150KN class for an indigenous heavy fighter aircraft.

Why? IF India were to opt for a F-16IN line in India, you would get a GE F110-GE-132 - 32,500lb (144.5kN). The UAE Block 60 is powered by this engine.

Besides, the DTTI based Jet Engine JWG has something up their sleeve. Do not know exactly what, bu there is something there.

--------------------

Yup. Just googled. The MMRCA F-16IN proposal did have that engine.

So, that problem is solved.

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 25 Feb 2016 00:07

NRao wrote:
What I am saying is that no nation (US or Russia) is going to give a proper engine in the +150KN class for an indigenous heavy fighter aircraft.
Why? IF India were to opt for a F-16IN line in India, you would get a GE F110-GE-132 - 32,500lb (144.5kN). The UAE Block 60 is powered by this engine.

Besides, the DTTI based Jet Engine JWG has something up their sleeve. Do not know exactly what, bu there is something there.

--------------------

Yup. Just googled. The MMRCA F-16IN proposal did have that engine.

So, that problem is solved.

I am talking about indigenous fighter jets, like Tejas.

US only offered GE 414 engines to Tejas and AMCA because there were many competing options with Eurojet, Snecma, and Saturn all offering competing bids.

For an indigenous heavy fighter, no one will offer a cutting edge engine. Russia will say no, just buy PakFA instead. America will also outright refuse and say buy F-15A, in fact Americans don't even offer their F-22s to their closest allies anymore like they did with the F-15 when it was cutting edge. There is much less leverage in the heavy fighter class.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 25 Feb 2016 04:22

Chakra.in wrote:
NRao wrote:
Why? IF India were to opt for a F-16IN line in India, you would get a GE F110-GE-132 - 32,500lb (144.5kN). The UAE Block 60 is powered by this engine.

Besides, the DTTI based Jet Engine JWG has something up their sleeve. Do not know exactly what, bu there is something there.

--------------------

Yup. Just googled. The MMRCA F-16IN proposal did have that engine.

So, that problem is solved.
I am talking about indigenous fighter jets, like Tejas.

US only offered GE 414 engines to Tejas and AMCA because there were many competing options with Eurojet, Snecma, and Saturn all offering competing bids.

For an indigenous heavy fighter, no one will offer a cutting edge engine. Russia will say no, just buy PakFA instead. America will also outright refuse and say buy F-15A, in fact Americans don't even offer their F-22s to their closest allies anymore like they did with the F-15 when it was cutting edge. There is much less leverage in the heavy fighter class.

It was nearly 20 years ago I said that India and the US will grow closer. Today:

That the U.S has reportedly offered to rewrite its laws so that India could gain access to classified technical information related to the GE F414 jet engines ............................

things are way different, close enough, IMHO, to work on an Indian Heavy.

The US had a chance to offer the F-15 and did not. I am sure the US would love for India to seriously talk about the F-35, but I think that ship has sailed. Only because none of the planes the US has are of long term strategic value to India. As fillers? Sure. Get a line of F/A-18E/F, etc, great. But none to fill the true role of an Indian heavy. I very much doubt even the FGFA can - for the simple reason I bet the AMCA will be "superior". And, just as a reminder, the AMCA will actually have an engine!!!! How nice to build a plane around an engine. I understand the urge to extrapolate, but in your case the data points are too old and therefore the extrapolation really does not provide a good picture of the future, although it is understandable.

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 25 Feb 2016 23:25

@Chakra.In

F22 is off limits to anyone. I believe they passed some bill around this so as to avoid second thoughts in the mind of future presidents (govts).
Despite knowing this the only country that asked for the F-22 was Japan.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 26 Feb 2016 03:51

Interesting. This may support the theory that Russia may send a prototype to India.

Indian Test Pilots to now fly the PAK-FA fighter

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 26 Feb 2016 03:53

Boy, they are falling out of the sky.

Indian Air Force pilots will be allowed to test PAK-FA: UAC Chief

Bharadwaj · Post by **Bharadwaj** » 26 Feb 2016 03:59

NRao Sir the IAF pilots flying pakfa is old news that seems to be based on the Force article from earlier this month.... The claims of a two seater appear to have little credibility given the timeline and financials being talked about.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 26 Feb 2016 04:11

Well, you need to post such imp news items. We were relying on a post from another web site.

This is a tectonic shift.

So, what else did it say? Dates?

Bharadwaj · Post by **Bharadwaj** » 26 Feb 2016 04:20

The complete force article is only available to subscribers I guess. But the free part of it had the quote from the Russian official who suggested the IAF pilot test flying issue could be discussed as part of the larger deal. The dates and financial aspects are available from the PTI report of last week. I seriously doubt that a two seater variant can be designed for "just" 3.7 billion.

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 26 Feb 2016 06:06

Another Section of Senior ofﬁcial in IAF consider Joint venture on FGFA a customised Pak-fa variant for India will not lead to any
local technical know how of complex 5th generation ﬁghter aircraft technology nor it will help Indian Scientist develop AMCA a
5th generation ﬁghter aircraft program which India plans to develop after work on Tejas MK-2 is over

Interesting point by some senior iaf officials and also hypocritical

Pakfa project will not help India in learning but

Rafale will help India learn and will have spin-offs for amca

What a joke

In fact rafale mfg will just give us screwdriver tech

While due to developmental work share of pakfa it will help us learn

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Feb 2016 07:13

Agreed hypocritical but both programs will mostly be screwdriver giri. What use has the Su-30 mfg TOT been for the LCA? Similarly by the time we "absorb" PAKFA TOT, MCA would have to be already flying and in LSP.

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 26 Feb 2016 07:49

NRao wrote:
to let PAK-FA mature quite a bit
Everyone seems to agree on that point (outside of sputnik and a few others). The real question is what needs to "mature". We know one item: engine. What else is on that list? Clearly (again) the RuAF itself seems to be ordering only 12 (one squadron) and the IAF has a list of things against it. So, the list for maturing techs seem to be a serious matter, certainly not something related to older gen planes. If they were related to older gen planes then there would be good amount of confidence all around - Su-27/30s are an example, a lot of confidence in pretty much anything associated with them.

I just do not think this is a small problem. For sure it is big enough to ask for $8 billion, on TOP of what is already spent. And India has waited this long to put her toes into the water. Serious stuff. Just that we do not know how serious.

The confidence around su27/30 is there now or a couple of years before today

But it was not there when India ordered them in 1896

The same can be the case with fgfa today

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 26 Feb 2016 07:55

I don't understand the hooplah over work share

On the negative side

1 if we have the expertise to develop things and ask for more work share why jointly develop ?

Why not go the whole hog and develop it independently ?

There is a down side too what if there are delays in our work share. Due to associated tech / materials / knowledge / experience - it will delay the whole programme

Remember lrsam with Israel - barak 8 ?

If got delayed due to delay at our side - in our work share

On the positive side

Our work share gives us IP and deep knowledge & experience
Eg the dual pulse motor developed for barak 8/ by us can now be employed on Astra versions and also be used to develop qrsam srsam etc

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 26 Feb 2016 08:01

NRao wrote:
to let PAK-FA mature quite a bit
Everyone seems to agree on that point (outside of sputnik and a few others). The real question is what needs to "mature". We know one item: engine. What else is on that list? Clearly (again) the RuAF itself seems to be ordering only 12 (one squadron) and the IAF has a list of things against it. So, the list for maturing techs seem to be a serious matter, certainly not something related to older gen planes. If they were related to older gen planes then there would be good amount of confidence all around - Su-27/30s are an example, a lot of confidence in pretty much anything associated with them.

I just do not think this is a small problem. For sure it is big enough to ask for $8 billion, on TOP of what is already spent. And India has waited this long to put her toes into the water. Serious stuff. Just that we do not know how serious.

What nneds to mature ?

How many systems need to mature ?

Well

Engine is one sure, radars ?

India is expected to choose Israeli / french / western avionics so count them out

Other smaller systems India us expected to fit Indian systems so count them out too

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 26 Feb 2016 08:04

Viv S wrote:
Chakra.in wrote:2017 will bring 2 T-50-11 prototypes, which will be very close to the initial Limited Serial Production of PakFA for Russian induction (minimum of 12 by 2020).
That's looks very dubious at this point. If they're to be delivered between 2019 & 2020, long lead production on those LSPs needs to start right away. And given that the program still needs to deliver another five prototypes, the earliest that's likely to happen is late 2017, which would push the delivery date for the production units past 2020.

As far as India is concerned, we need to plan for our variant of the bird (with the new engine) to arrive no earlier than 2025. The trouble of course is that the Chinese program (no doubt far better funded) is running ahead of the PAK FA with serial production already having commenced.

China appears ready to begin mass production of first stealth fighter jet, state media suggest

Developing stealth in response to Chinese stealth is one response but not the only one

We could & should consider assymetric response such as investing / buying anti stealth radar / radar tech from Russia

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Feb 2016 08:25

Harin wrote:Remember lrsam with Israel - barak 8 ?

If got delayed due to delay at our side - in our work share

It got delayed due to MFSTAR, design issues with the overall missile and dual pulse motor. All 3 not just "our work share".

srai · Post by **srai** » 26 Feb 2016 09:40

Harin wrote:I don't understand the hooplah over work share

On the negative side

1 if we have the expertise to develop things and ask for more work share why jointly develop ?

Why not go the whole hog and develop it independently ?

...

One of the chief benefits of JV with work share arrangement is the sharing of R&D costs and better utilization of each partner's skill/knowledge set while returning a bigger revenue in production--total numbers ordered will be higher (instead of 100 it may be 200+ for two or more AF orders lumped together). Downside is that each partner would want to control its own work share and expertise, such as IPs, as much as possible, especially if the partners are direct competitors (or future competitors).

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 26 Feb 2016 09:55

Please let us not fool ourselves by calling this a JV. There is a vast assymetry between the research contributions of Russians vs Indians. This is a going to be an off the shelf purchase with with MKI-zation of LRU with our won or western import components. When engines, radars, external shape & skin, flight control laws, tvc are all from Russia, why call this a JV at all?

The bird is already flying with no inputs or knowledge of the insides from IAF or ADA/DRDO/HAL. Russians are on a contract to design and develop something for us. We are paying them >80% towards an already build product and <20% for the IP or help to integrate western/indian tech onto this platform.

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 26 Feb 2016 12:42

^
The time for this to be a JV has long since passed. At this point it will either be strictly an export variant like T-90S, or an MKI-zation.

Why should India waste precious time and human resources into developing a Russian-owned plane? Better to use those for AMCA and Tejas Mk2.

$3.7B will only buy an 'MKI-lite' where the FGFA will be the basic PakFA with some extra indigenous/foreign avionics and weapons to meet IAF needs.

habal · Post by **habal** » 26 Feb 2016 14:17

russians will be interested in JV only if India has something game-changing to offer. Like in case of engine technology or radar. We really need to adopt some tech and put so much money & talent into it that we become global leaders in that tech. Absorb all employable manpower in country into our technology and starve as far as possible, americans from benefiting from Indian manpower.

Now that gravitational waves has been put up as a fact, we need to work on anti-gravity propulsion so that we will only be 20 yrs behind west instead of the 50 yrs behind as we are in gas turbine tech. Mettalurgy and nano-technology are other game changing areas where we can innovate and jump ahead of the queue instead of following somebody.

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 26 Feb 2016 14:42

^Actually, they just announced a plan to set up a gravitational wave research facility in India.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 26 Feb 2016 23:44

Harin wrote:<SNIP>

What nneds to mature ?

How many systems need to mature ?

Well

Engine is one sure, radars ?

India is expected to choose Israeli / french / western avionics so count them out

Other smaller systems India us expected to fit Indian systems so count them out too

Su-30MKI has Russian engines+RADAR which is also part of what makes it out of any effects of western sanctions/alphabet-soup-treaties. It is therefore the best to get the Russian RADARs+engines as it is. To put western avionics will put it at the mercy of western geopolitical games, and clearly not dependent on western logistical supply chain. A breath of fresh air without undefined and unclear strategic headwinds as defined/decided per alphabet soup treaties, which were not offered when weapons systems were first offered.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 27 Feb 2016 06:22

Please let us not fool ourselves by calling this a JV. There is a vast assymetry between the research contributions of Russians vs Indians.

BrahMos also had an asymmetry. And yet we accept it as a cornerstone for JV.

This is a going to be an off the shelf purchase

Says who?

India did spend a cool $295 mil on the predesign phase. What was that for? (I do not expect an answer because no one has answered it yet, so I suspect no one knows).

with with MKI-zation of LRU with our won or western import components. When engines, radars, external shape & skin, flight control laws, tvc are all from Russia, why call this a JV at all?

There is plenty of confusion here.

The Su-30 "integration" was totally done by Sukhoi, BUT, the specs were provided by Indians.

Here both are doing the "integration" and since the R&D effort will produce two totally different planes, I very much doubt that the Indians will be relegated to providing specs and will be idle or even sidelined.

The %age of work I think is due to IP and not do much because the Russians are that far ahead in this phase of the development.

On:
Engine, it is India that has insisted on the new engine, not Russia.
Radar, again, India has insisted, from day one, on a 360 degree radar, not Russians.
External shape, IMHO, is TBD
Skin, India has wanted a LOT more composite than Russia, so they are not the same
Avionics, they are diff, totally

??????

Eric Leiderman · Post by **Eric Leiderman** » 27 Feb 2016 07:57

Most probably we will get an insight into the design effort of the t-50 to date. As Kash is King, we are seeing a lot more flexibility on this project, We are no more the India of a few decades past when we opted for the MKI. We will be able to dictate some terms , as we are seeing right now.
At this stage we need the defence expertise of Russian, as no body else can even come close to the tech transfer that we can get from them. (strings attached)
The Americian initiatives are still at a nascent stage , lets see how they pan out over the next few years.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 27 Feb 2016 11:44

The Americian initiatives are still at a nascent stage , lets see how they pan out over the next few years.

I don't know how it is related here, but surely on American initiatives about alphabet soup treaties are not worth signing if they are not worth even discussing. Americans, like stealth feature of 5th Gen fighter, didn't show off these alphabet soup treaties while selling wares in the first place so what is the point after buying machines with hard cash. Makes no sense.