Su-30MKI: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Karthik S »

Saurabh Joshi‏ @SaurabhJoshi 10m10 minutes ago
Ground search & rescue party has reached the crash site of missing IAF Sukhoi 30MKI and recovered the black box. No word on the pilots yet.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Singha »

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

Was reading of this a330 crash over atlantic in icing conditions. In high altitude and with confusing instrument readings the two veteran pilots failed to detect the creeping approach to stall and to apply subsequent recovery procedures......shows how even highly rated gear and veteran pilots can end in strange situations
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by shiv »

A MiG 29 had simply vanished over the Himalayas - discussed on here in 2011
- found after 8 days
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/iaf ... aDuZO.html
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by rohitvats »

shiv wrote:A MiG 29 had simply vanished over the Himalayas - discussed on here in 2011
- found after 8 days
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/iaf ... aDuZO.html
Slightly OT - Crashed into a mountain side at 15,000+ feet. I happened to bump into the guy from IA who led the search ops and actually managed to retrieve some bits & pieces of the pilot. He had pics of the area on his camera. Simply put - but for dedicated effort of an organized and determined organization like IAF and with the kind of manpower deployed, the wreckage was next to impossible to locate. Let alone retrieve. Developed renewed respect for guys like him who expertise in mountain warfare. What strength, what stamina!
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Singha »

A jaguar had also flown into terrain amidst clouds. Was part of a multi unit formation that got separated by bad weather

Methinks given our hostile terrain and weather a gcas type system would help?
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by vasu raya »

if one is flying that low, the radar contact would be patchy...maybe they were commencing a dive or not if the weather was bad

An incident where a Indian chopper landed on a paki helipad in the mountains due to GPS issues, here the 2nd MKI in formation flight might notice such glitch as well
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Gagan »

Su was probably flying low and fast to avoid Chinese Radar sites just north of the Mc Mohan line. It maybe got caught in a downdraft and has crashed on a slope of a hillside. Hope the pilots had time to eject, since the plane didn't have the time to send out even a distress signal.

Chinese radar sites in the NE sector:
Near Sikkim: 27°50'5.30"N, 89° 8'13.52"E
New site near Sikkim: 27°44'30.90"N, 89°12'1.34"E This site is literally 2KM from the Tibet-Bhutan Border
Near Tawang / Bum-La: 28° 3'18.38"N, 91°57'6.18"E
Near Tuting: 29°37'26.73"N, 94°40'35.74"E
Near Lahsa: 29°12'9.03"N, 90°39'19.07"E

Radar site north of Tawang/Bum-la is at an altitude of 4650-4700m
Bum-la is at ~4500m, the highest peaks are ~4900m, the average peaks are 4300m or so. All back of the envelope calculations

Tezpur, located in the brahmaputra plains is at 72m altitude
Last edited by Gagan on 29 May 2017 01:34, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Gagan »

India needs to deploy such high altitude Radar stations to keep an eye on Chinese planes in the area, something that India does not do yet.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Cain Marko »

If it was due to low altitude flight, does the mki or jag have a terrain following mode, if not would it help to have it?
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by sudeepj »

A completely passive, standalone terrain warning system could be built, that uses a GPS+INS in addition to a Geographical Information System (essentially a digital terrain map). Our fly boys could fly in zero vis. with no emissions from the radar. The recently launched RISAT should be able to help us build a world wide GIS.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by tsarkar »

kit wrote:To add to the medley of explanations. . The plane seem to have went down without any distress call means that almost all eletronics could have been jammed ??? .. unlikely given that it would need literally an EMP pulse wAve to interfere with ALL the electronics .. if it was only fbw the comms would still be operable ? .. did the pilots bail out before the crash ? ..
When fighters fly low and meet with an accident, then reaction time to eject and make distress calls is significantly reduced. There was a Gorakhpur Jaguar crash where the pilot was flying low and didn't get the chance to eject. I've seen Jaguar IMs routinely flying at frigate bridge height. There are photos of IAF and Oman Air Force Jaguars flying inside Wadi's (Canyons) in Oman.

Image

Too short a reaction time to make a distress call and ejection sequence incase a wing touches the canyon walls and flips. Pilots fly HOTAS, not with hands on ejection handles.

The Adampur MiG-29 hit a cliff. The Air France A330 couldn't make a single radio call.

Let's go easy on conspiracy theories and understand the harsh Indian flying environment - whether civilian or military. The Gorakhpur based Jaguar, An-12 Chandrabhaga glacier crash, & Adampur based MiG-29 crashes happened during extreme flight manoeuvering or environmental conditions.

Karan - the MiG-29 Ground Control commands were very rudimentary commands for very specific scenarios, the full set of VOR, ADF and other airfield instrumentation required to make them work cannot be set up inside Indian Territory. At long range, our navigation sensors at airfields and other flying aircraft would detect spurious signals.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Karan M »

tsarkar wrote:Karan - the MiG-29 Ground Control commands were very rudimentary commands for very specific scenarios, the full set of VOR, ADF and other airfield instrumentation required to make them work cannot be set up inside Indian Territory. At long range, our navigation sensors at airfields and other flying aircraft would detect spurious signals.
There are actually 3 ways to passively hijack our systems

1. If the design somehow can get info of the wrong kind fed into its nav system - variants of this theory will exist
2. If during patterns when its dependent on external sensors, those are spoofed (we can rule this one out for this event)
3. If the system is shut down by some sort of targeted attack (EMP type, DEW weapon etc - I find this very unlikely)

Coming to 1, now the PRC has access to similar systems as ours. I wager several of the systems in their Su-30 MKs are similar to ours. The question I had was a) Can they spoof the GPS - well, the Su-30 has backup INS and b ) Is there any sort of automated datalink which can (say) feed information to the Nav system and hence control the FBW.

MiG-29
`On the plane of the unit for instrument guidance BIRJUZOVA / designation of the system is E502-20" Biryoza "command data link and should not be confused with the famous SPO-15LM Bereza`negde` and `` Berjoza / which is used to specify the target plane automatic, semi-automatic or based on commands from whom. place on earth or in Russian AWACS A-50. This device allows the plane to fly and return it to the base without affecting pilots and even to automatically land with visibility of 60 / 800m .`
Now the MiG-29 datalink stuff allowed the GCI to control the aircraft, even set its radar modes, basically the pilots were along for the ride. Given the soviet luvv for standardization, there is a chance the MiG-31, Su-27 datalink would allow similar (at least) capabilities plus more. And hence Mr Nalapat may have been indicated this as a possible direction to hand over to the IAF. Assuming all this is serious.. ok, lets go with that line of thought.

But, its been two decades flying the Sukhoi now (or thereabouts). The IAF would know of this, and what guarantee would any PRC saboteur team have of this capability being "on" all the time (if something like this even exists), and then they would have to mimick the exact signals and somehow spoof the onboard system with what, handheld radio sets with which they infiltrated many km deep into indian territory.. and not only that, this is a huge advantage and secret toy you have. Now will you risk exposure by using it, if you are sure it works? And if a person like Nalapat is being told by St Petersburg sources (lets assume they are actually serious folks with ties to the Russian MIC), then clearly the russians are concerned about this, and why would you tip your hand?

All this versus the simpler explanation of bad weather or visual issues flying at low level.

The simpler version hence is likely more plausible.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Karan M »

chetak wrote:I'm not thinking data link or EMP, Karan M ji.

Data link in the Indian scenario is more for sensor data transmission and highly unlikely that it would/could be linked to the FCS. May possibly also take a feed from nav data / air data for location purposes.

unless you are suggesting that the data link stream itself was some how compromised and insufficient or ineffective EMI/EMC interfered or was made to interfere with the FCS??
Yes, I was exploring datalink compromise sirji... given the fact that Russian fighters often had a rudimentary but quite automated system wherein GCI could control the fighter to navigate to specific headings, have its avionics do specific tasks and even RTB with minimal pilot input.. so if the nav system is controlled by a rogue datalink stream. then it can be concerning..the site quotes a Finnish fighter pilots blog who was very familiar with the MiG-29, so its credible.

http://www.combatsim.com/cgi-bin/ubbcgi ... 0&t=001419

See how the datalink process works from this document from 1977.
https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom ... 969825.pdf

Page 18.

I was actually just going by your thought process, explore all possibilities. But to be honest, I find the possibility quite implausible.. though it may be a point of concern (theoretically if at that) but for that I need to dig out what the TKS-2 datalink is capable of. And even there, if the system is OFF, you cannot technically (AFAIK) force it to activate & so that you can feed the wrong data. Unless there is a switch etc by which it is on semi-automatic mode and can be activated from the ground by an automated message.

Well, I hope my thought process is completely wrong. And I do think the scenario is a bit far-fetched.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Karan M »

If this information is right, I would have to state Nalapat sir is wrong.
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4191802

Basically Lazur-M, the newer Su-27/30 datalinks only exchange targeting information & it was the earlier ones linked directly to the autopilot. Makes sense because the radar capabilities, plus second crew member on the larger Sukhois reduces the need for GCI. Plus these fighters would range far and GCI was LOS limited.

In fact Su-30 MKIs dont seem to have A2G datalinks of Russia, and are flight only.. the PRC ones (if they have the Su-30 MK2) may differ.
https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by chetak »

Karan M wrote:If this information is right, I would have to state Nalapat sir is wrong.
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4191802

Basically Lazur-M, the newer Su-27/30 datalinks only exchange targeting information & it was the earlier ones linked directly to the autopilot. Makes sense because the radar capabilities, plus second crew member on the larger Sukhois reduces the need for GCI. Plus these fighters would range far and GCI was LOS limited.

In fact Su-30 MKIs dont seem to have A2G datalinks of Russia, and are flight only.. the PRC ones (if they have the Su-30 MK2) may differ.
https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=
Also I don't think that we are as gung ho about GCI as the russians were/are(?)
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Karan M »

Yes, absolutely. But AFM many years ago noted IAF was operationalizing its Lazur datalinks on its Su-30Ks at the time.

Anyway Millers tour de force on Su-27 clearly states it has G2A datalinking and control. Not sure whether it carried over into the newer variants and Su-30MKI.

If anyone has the time to pull up the relevant section from the Su-27SK manual and tramslate it, we will have more info.

At any rate, any incorrect deviation in flight path, nav system change should hopefully be captured by the black box and IAF will havd enough data to fix things. They can record 100 parameters plus.
http://science.howstuffworks.com/transp ... k-box1.htm

So I think the IAF will fix any gaps found.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Philip »

Since the pilots weren't found with the debris,they must've ejected and one can still hope that they're alive. The aircraft's location now known,would also determine approx. where they ejected from,narrowing down the search area for the search teams. However,it is peculiar that we've not had any luck with the pilots,as pilots are supposed to have distress beacons
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by tsarkar »

^^ ELT beacons don't have long ranges nor do they have infinite batteries. Scott O' Grady's position was fixed only after an aircraft flying directly overhead picked up his signal. And fancy Brietling watches are gimmicks.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Guddu »

tsarkar wrote:^^ ELT beacons don't have long ranges nor do they have infinite batteries. Scott O' Grady's position was fixed only after an aircraft flying directly overhead picked up his signal. And fancy Brietling watches are gimmicks.
I think one should spend some time investigating how the watch functions before labeling it as a gimmick. Each of these beacon watches need to be registered with the appropriate govt authorities. The beacon part of the watch is made by Dassault, maker of the Rafale. Its currently marketed to civilians, so the watch would need to be adjusted to work with Indian military satellites. To those unfamiliar with the watch, the 406 MHz signal is picked up by Low earth orbiting satellites within 2 hrs from anywhere in the world as the satellites pass overhead, signal from the satellite is transmitted to a ground station, which then transmits a recovery vehicle (helicopter) to the approximate location, which is fine tuned using the 121.5 MHz signal. https://youtu.be/GcYYHQWnkas

The way that the watch differs from other beacons is that it has the ability to communicate and initiate a distress signal via satellite, so that help can be dispatched. This ability is lacking in standard beacons, which are effective only if someone comes looking for you, the problem ofcourse being one has to know where to look for the downed aircraft.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by tsarkar »

Guddu wrote:
tsarkar wrote:^^ ELT beacons don't have long ranges nor do they have infinite batteries. Scott O' Grady's position was fixed only after an aircraft flying directly overhead picked up his signal. And fancy Brietling watches are gimmicks.
I think one should spend some time investigating how the watch functions before labeling it as a gimmick. Each of these beacon watches need to be registered with the appropriate govt authorities. The beacon part of the watch is made by Dassault, maker of the Rafale. Its currently marketed to civilians, so the watch would need to be adjusted to work with Indian military satellites. To those unfamiliar with the watch, the 406 MHz signal is picked up by Low earth orbiting satellites within 2 hrs from anywhere in the world as the satellites pass overhead, signal from the satellite is transmitted to a ground station, which then transmits a recovery vehicle (helicopter) to the approximate location, which is fine tuned using the 121.5 MHz signal. https://youtu.be/GcYYHQWnkas

The way that the watch differs from other beacons is that it has the ability to communicate and initiate a distress signal via satellite, so that help can be dispatched. This ability is lacking in standard beacons, which are effective only if someone comes looking for you, the problem ofcourse being one has to know where to look for the downed aircraft.
Being a sailor myself, I did look up that watch in detail long back. Steve Fossett was supposed to be wearing one too.

Infact you would help yourself cure your brochuritis if you tried to amplify your statement,"the watch would need to be adjusted to work with Indian military satellites". Which Indian military satellite?

The Cospas-Sarsat system that the watch is supposed to use, does the LEO segment offer full global coverage?

Has the MEO segment achieved FOC? Again, does it offer full global coverage?

How many local user terminal and ground segments providers are there? Does it offer full global coverage?

Lastly, how long do the batteries last while transmitting to the satellite?

Beacon in a watch is like calculator in a watch. Not suitable for professional use.

Added later http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Release ... -677A1.pdf
The RTCM PLB standard requires a non-rechargeable battery with sufficient charge for the PLB to function for a minimum of twenty-four hours, but the Emergency2 uses a rechargeable battery sufficient to provide eighteen hours of continuous operation. SARSAT is concerned that any further reduction in operating time below eighteen hours “may significantly decrease the likelihood of a successful rescue of the user,” and notes that the capacity of rechargeable batteries tends to diminish over time.
The FCC allowed its sale provided customers sign conditions of use with warning language explaining limitations.
SARSAT requests that the information provided to Emergency2 purchasers clearly explain how the Emergency2 differs from fully-compliant PLBs regarding these (and other) specifications, and the difference between the Letter of Compatibility and a COSPAS-SARSAT Type Approval. Breitling agrees to use SARSAT’s requested language in the document to be signed before purchase by U.S. consumers.
Request for Waiver filed by Breitling U.S.A., Inc.on October 2, 2014, IS GRANTED ON THE CONDITION that Breitling include in the Conditions of Use to be signed by consumers before purchase the warning language set forth on page 7
Coming to the larger issue of personal locator beacons, they're supposed to operate continuously for 24 hours. Assuming pilots adopt rigorous battery discipline like Scott O Grady did, it will definitely last a few days longer.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Guddu »

My information is only based on study of brochures...a few points.
The transmitter is guaranteed to work for 18 hrs at -20 C, per the specs, its 24 hrs at 20 C. Theoretically, signal should be transmitted within 2 hrs when the satellites pass overhead, one would be rescued within a few hours after that (in The Indian context). Any device for consumer use in the USA has a lot of disclaimers for legal reasons. If India went with it, some work would be needed to be done together with Dassault. To reemphasize, there is no other beacon that can transmit its location and seek help. But lets not discuss this beacon anymore, before the mods get upset about derailing the thread...so my last on this topic.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Cybaru »

chetak wrote: I would not have believed this either and all this is out on the public domain.

What's not out in the public domain is a matter of complete conjecture.
Not the same thing man. For them to take over a sukhoi is a different matter altogether. Lets wait for blackbox analysis.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Zynda »

Sukhoi-30 Crash: Pilot's Blood Stained Shoe, Other Belongings Found
GUWAHATI: Search and rescue teams on Tuesday found a blood stained shoe, half-burnt PAN card and a wallet of one of the two pilots of the Air Force's Sukhoi-30 fighter jet that crashed near the Assam-Arunachal Pradesh border last week, officials said.

The teams comprising the Army, the Air Force and civil administration personnel had recovered the jet's blackbox on May 28 from the crash site, located in a dense forest.

"Search operations are continuing despite bad weather conditions. However, there is still no trace of the two pilots," Army sources said.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Singha »

the mystery deepens. a parachute or ejection seat not found nearby is strange. the ejection seat is supposed to release the pilot and parachute by doing its own computations of height and speed.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by tsarkar »

^^ While on one hand I appreciate Breitling and Dassault's effort in putting a beacon in a watch, practically it isn't a substitute for for proper PLB.

I'm not sure of IAF policy on ELB/PLB, when AM Ajit Bhavnani ejected, he used a villager's mobile phone to call his son in law. Ideally both the aircraft and the pilot(s) should have separate beacons.

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2014/10 ... arsha.html
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by ramana »

Guddu, How does Brietling watch discussion help this thread?
tsarkar already said its ineffective.
And you want to go by brochure rather than someone who has explored its usage?
All no more of those posts.
Stick to the SU-30 crash.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Rishi_Tri »

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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Marten »

Rishi_Tri wrote:Pilots didnt survive. Sad.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 931422.cms
Condolences to the families, and deep regret at the accident. May they find peace.

The report says the pilots were unable to eject. Does this mean the wreckage was irretrievably scattered in a manner that piecing together the informaton itself took so many days? Disheartened and sad that the matter could not reach closure in a more definitive or positive manner.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Karthik S »

If wreckage is scattered in that big area, can we rule out mid air disintegration of the plane. From the few air crash investigation episodes I saw, when the plane is shot down, the wreckage will be scattered across large area. Not suggesting that, need wait till black box is analyzed.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Rishi_Tri »

Karthik S wrote:If wreckage is scattered in that big area, can we rule out mid air disintegration of the plane. From the few air crash investigation episodes I saw, when the plane is shot down, the wreckage will be scattered across large area. Not suggesting that, need wait till black box is analyzed.
Cannot be ruled out given Chinese assertiveness though shall be a massive departure from current situation. They are more into close fly bys as seen over SCS.

Assuming it was, must have been a catastrophic failure with no missile warning. After all the Russian pilots did survive shooting down of their SU 24 and at good altitude.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by ramana »

Sorry for the loss of the pilots and plane.

Court of Inquiry will also be held.

Lets hear from them.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by tsarkar »

My respects for these youth of India who put their lives at stake so that we live in peace. My heart goes out to their parents who raised such fine young men for the nation and their spouses who sacrificed the love of their lives.

The causes will be no doubt analysed in detail. The IAF Flight Safety magazine often contains these findings - though it takes a year or two to be published.

I checked - apparently for short range sorties - PLB & radios are not carried. On one occasion, a Sukhoi pilot called his wife from his mobile to tell her he ejected safely.

Ramana - the fault is mine and not Guddu's for bringing up ELB/PLB/Watches and I apologise for the OT earlier.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Cosmo_R »

^^^"I checked - apparently for short range sorties - PLB & radios are not carried. On one occasion, a Sukhoi pilot called his wife from his mobile to tell her he ejected safely."

The lack of a safety culture borders on criminal negligence. Really disappointed that the approach is so cavalier. What does it cost to carry ELB/PLBs on every flight?
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by ramana »

tsarkar,
Was weather a factor in this instance?
Now that the site was located and bodies recovered we can discuss this.
And what are the rules of flight on training sorties?

The PLBs etc., are after the crash.

What could have been feasibly to avoid this loss of valuable lives?

There was another aircraft along this one that made it back safely.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by brar_w »

Sad to here about the pilots. Condolences to their family and the IAF.
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by ManSingh »

Rishi_Tri wrote:
Karthik S wrote:If wreckage is scattered in that big area, can we rule out mid air disintegration of the plane. From the few air crash investigation episodes I saw, when the plane is shot down, the wreckage will be scattered across large area. Not suggesting that, need wait till black box is analyzed.
Cannot be ruled out given Chinese assertiveness though shall be a massive departure from current situation. They are more into close fly bys as seen over SCS.

Assuming it was, must have been a catastrophic failure with no missile warning. After all the Russian pilots did survive shooting down of their SU 24 and at good altitude.
Not exactly. I remember vaguely recall an IAF transport aircraft being shot down in arunachal pradesh quite some years ago. Funny that couldn't find out any major link now about that incident except a very brief one below:

http://www.c3sindia.org/india/1894

and
http://www.rediff.com/news/report/wreck ... 090610.htm
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Gagan »

I find the SAM story a bit difficult to believe.

The first article says, HQ-9 SAM with a range of 200 Kms. There is one such SAM battery located in Lhasa, exactly 200 Km from the McMohan's line.
Heat Seeker or Mobile Radar Guided SAM is possible, but, if the plane was about 100 Km south of the McMohan's line, the SAM theory is bogus.

The weather was bad in the area, I suspect high winds, intense cloud cover, rain and very very poor visibility. The plane might have run into a downdraft or a sudden change in wind, across a hill and could easily lose control.
If the plane was at a low enough altitude, there would have been no time to even eject!
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by nirav »

^thats probably what happened.
It took just one click bait article from "defensenews.in" to start the China emp to cyber warfare responsible for the tragedy.

The only panga China takes with us militarily is the border jousting.. pushing and pulling and shouting matches which is available for everyone's viewing on YouTube.

Them downing our 'Air dominance fighter' without any provocation is wayy too much of an escalatory step.
This is something even the Pakis wouldn't dare.
The Chinese aren't that stupid.
shiv
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by shiv »

Could people please stop speculating on causes. Let the vayusena do its job and conduct a court if enquiry. "cyberweapon", "missile" only indicate an absence of knowledge of a score of other causes of accidents and a deep seated fear of China.
Karan M
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014

Post by Karan M »

Gagan wrote:I find the SAM story a bit difficult to believe.

The first article says, HQ-9 SAM with a range of 200 Kms. There is one such SAM battery located in Lhasa, exactly 200 Km from the McMohan's line.
Heat Seeker or Mobile Radar Guided SAM is possible, but, if the plane was about 100 Km south of the McMohan's line, the SAM theory is bogus.

The weather was bad in the area, I suspect high winds, intense cloud cover, rain and very very poor visibility. The plane might have run into a downdraft or a sudden change in wind, across a hill and could easily lose control.
If the plane was at a low enough altitude, there would have been no time to even eject!
The aircraft was in all likelihood flying low, fast, and in such a circumstance a crash is all too possible.

SAM attack and all is out of way speculation.
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