Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

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Rien
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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rien » 25 Aug 2014 08:02

shiv wrote:On second thoughts..
One action
11. Direct Action (DA) day minus 1: Pakistani village attacked, 6 people beheaded by "Indian" soldiers and videos recorded. 4 hours of intense shelling to destroy houses and mosque. ISPR and TV channels including BBC and CNN given footage. 18 hours before "retaliation"


Beheading and video recording will be a total success. Unopposed. But shelling!

Con: Shelling will attract attention and local reports by COs. Patrolling will be stepped up.
Con: We have UAVs monitoring the border.
http://www.ipsnews.net/2011/10/india-ka ... ats-crops/
The fencing is actually part of a surveillance grid which makes use of detection sensors as well.
Con: FLIR sensors are deployed extensively, even at unit level.
Con: Weapon Locating Radars will give location and pinpoint source of shelling.

Con: We have radio surveillance and listen for chatter. Multiple jehadis/soldiers means more chance of a slipup.
500 troops are involved. Chance of leakage is proportional to no of troops involved. 500 should mean roll is loaded
in my favour.

Con: RAW has informers in Pakistan. Multiple soldiers/jehadis are involved in the generals action. Therefore, 100% chance of leakage to a RAW informant. 2 people can keep a secret if 1 of them are dead.
Con: Local villagers have suffered from shelling in the past. They have taken action against PA in the past.
Con: Chaotic situation with Pakistani government distracted by protests.
http://www.ryot.org/pakistani-protester ... rif/790485
Con: Army will be called on to deal with protesters.
Con: We have exchanged artillery fire in the past. Therefore, both sides know where guns are located.
Con: MoD has a TV. I will know about the General's actions at that point.

Note: None of these will prevent General from executing his action *EXCEPT* being called back to deal with protestors. However! I will be able to take an action as a result of early notification as MoD. At this point I still know nothing.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 25 Aug 2014 09:17

shiv wrote:On second thoughts..
One action
11. Direct Action (DA) day minus 1: Pakistani village attacked, 6 people beheaded by "Indian" soldiers and videos recorded. 4 hours of intense shelling to destroy houses and mosque. ISPR and TV channels including BBC and CNN given footage. 18 hours before "retaliation"


Shiv, you have condensed to one action (which is appropriate for one move) but not provided the Intended Result nor any Pros/Cons of WHY the action will lead to the intended result.

Is it fair to say:

Intended Result: The international community will see this as an act of Indian terrorism (beheading) against innocent Pakistani civilians, as well as an act of Indian military aggression (shelling) against Pakistan, giving us a causus belli and giving our allies the opportunity to fuel India-Pakistan equal-equal propaganda.


?

The reason it is important to specify your intended result is that the crux of the sim... PRO/CON arguments... can be offered about whether the Action leads to Intended Result or not. Otherwise you are going ahead with an action and not specifying the intended result. In real life Gen Pakhan has some intended result in mind for every action at the time he takes that action.

Gen Pakhan may claim later on that his intended result was different than the intended result you state now, if the consequences of his action turn out differently than planned (that would require another "action" in the game later on). But for sim purposes you, the player (NOT Gen Pakhan the character) have to say what the action was intended to achieve at the time you carried it out.

If the Intended Result is what I have spelled out above, then Rien's CONs are all very valid objections. Meanwhile you have not provided any PROs. You can include in your PROs, for example, "I provoke an artillery duel with India in the ____ sector 10 hours ahead of time, so that it is well known that Indian artillery is targeting villages on this side of the sector, at the time the incident happens."

Otherwise the question is begged: Where did you fire your artillery from? If intense barrages of shells landing on the village were fired from your side, and the Indians can prove with imaging data that they had no significant artillery within range on their side when the incident occurred, then what does it do the credibility of your gambit? That could in fact be another CON.

Please specify an Intended Result for your action (you can just agree to use the one I suggested if you want), as well as some PROs why you think the Action you stated will give the Intended Result. If you give no PROs, and agree to the Intended Result I suggested, then your chances of success are less than 0%!

***

Jamwal, thanks. Your mention of coordination between Amir of LeT and Gen Pakhan suggests a thought: for a full-fledged game, some coordination behind the scenes between "allied" parties would be a good idea (either by email, or on a team thread separate from the main sim thread). Anyway, for now let's see if Shiv's action succeeds or fails, and then have Rien take his turn as MOD India.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby shiv » 25 Aug 2014 09:43

Rudradev wrote:
shiv wrote:On second thoughts..
One action
11. Direct Action (DA) day minus 1: Pakistani village attacked, 6 people beheaded by "Indian" soldiers and videos recorded. 4 hours of intense shelling to destroy houses and mosque. ISPR and TV channels including BBC and CNN given footage. 18 hours before "retaliation"


Shiv, you have condensed to one action (which is appropriate for one move) but not provided the Intended Result nor any Pros/Cons of WHY the action will lead to the intended result.

Is it fair to say:

Intended Result: The international community will see this as an act of Indian terrorism (beheading) against innocent Pakistani civilians, as well as an act of Indian military aggression (shelling) against Pakistan, giving us a causus belli and giving our allies the opportunity to fuel India-Pakistan equal-equal propaganda.


?


No

The intended end result is "To set the stage for the next step to be undertaken 18 hours later" which will be:
12.DA day 0: From 4 AM: Intense, continuous, day long shelling of India and Indian positions.


Whether the international community believes Pakistan's ploy or not is immaterial. It is a flimsy cover up that will keep the story alive as Indian aggression among Pakistanis, even if no one else believes it

So PROs for the action:
1.No one can stop it, we are killing our own
2.No one will believe that we would kill our own especially when we have video footage of men in Indian army uniforms
3. We make the first move and hold the initiative with our version
4. Indians (and others) may suspect a conspiracy, but tthey will get no time to do anything as we move on to the next step

CON: Indians will not believe that it is true

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 25 Aug 2014 10:19

Ok, that changes things! Rien would you like to revise your CONs accordingly? I will add some of my own PROS and CONs too. Others please add yours as well.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby member_27164 » 25 Aug 2014 14:58

shiv wrote:On second thoughts..
One action
11. Direct Action (DA) day minus 1: Pakistani village attacked, 6 people beheaded by "Indian" soldiers and videos recorded. 4 hours of intense shelling to destroy houses and mosque. ISPR and TV channels including BBC and CNN given footage. 18 hours before "retaliation"


Con:
1) It will be necessary to target village that is/are neat to border/LOC considering range of indian artillery. This will increase chances of indian WLRs pick up the action and sound may be heard across border. and they may get alert.
2) Also the shelling should be done in such a way that the seems to be coming from indian side. This may require re positioning current deployment and this may be caught by indians as they will sense increased activity along border.
2) As result of 1 and 2 there are chances they will increase their patrols/ surveillance. If that happens then infiltration will be more difficult.
3) There is possibility that they will start reinforcing themselves for possible pakistani strike although they will get very few hours.
4) at diplomatic level india will deny the village attack and say something like "are we so stupid to send uniformed soldiers do such things?"
5) India may deploy 2-3 ships in arebian sea to pressurize pakistan (cannot really rely on anti-pakistani indian govt.) They have done this recently in iraq.

P.S. Umpire and others, this is my first ever attempt in such game/ simulations so please ignore if i have posted something stupid.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby shiv » 25 Aug 2014 19:06

Ultimately, the direction from which the shells land on the village are immaterial as long as they don't come from the western side. Mortars have a range of 4-5 km. A village that is 5 km from the border can simply be shelled from any spot between LoC and village and no one will know.

There will be no time for explanations or analysis. The "village attack" is a lie from the word go.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 26 Aug 2014 12:22

Ok, we are all still learning to use this system, including myself :)
So what I'm going to do as Umpire is take Shiv's "preparatory" moves as included in his action:
"
1. Identification of 17 locations where LOC fencing is to be targeted for breaching. Sabotage and earth moving teams readied if necessary.
2. Location and marking of Indian positions relevant to these areas
3. Reinforcement of mortar and artillery along these areas and ensuring adequate stocks for 7 days of shelling
4. Coordination with LeT to select 500 of the most dedicated Fidayeen, to be split into groups of 30 and transported to 17 locations where LoC fencing is to be breached
5. Arms and supplies, comm sets, NVGs for Fidayeen provided to LeT ,
6. Identification of suitable Pakistani village near LoC which can be shelled from a direction that makes it appear like shells are from India. Indian munitions to be used.
7. Identification of crowded spot at which Pakistani civilians will be beheaded by commandos in Indian army uniform.
8. Soldiers in civilian clothes to act as "witnesses" of killing, to be recorded on cellphones and security camera
9. Readying of Nasr missiles with tactical nuclear warheads under Lt Gen Pakhan's command
10. Information fed to Chinese Intel that India is planning an attack, requesting further info if they have any."


This is because Lt. Gen Pakhan can specify taking all these measures in advance of his Action, which is:

Direct Action (DA) day minus 1: Pakistani village attacked, 6 people beheaded by "Indian" soldiers and videos recorded. 4 hours of intense shelling to destroy houses and mosque. ISPR and TV channels including BBC and CNN given footage. 18 hours before "retaliation".


All the steps 1-10 are preparatory to the Action itself, so we can include them in the Matrix since Shiv has specified them. Fair enough.

***

Now the Intended Result. Shiv has said the Intended Result of Gen. Pakhan's action is:
"To set the stage for the next step to be undertaken 18 hours later"


This can be rephrased as the following three (correct me if I am wrong Shiv)
INTENDED RESULT(s):

1) MILITARY PREPARATION for FUTURE MOVES: Preparatory positioning of X Corps elements across 17 LOC locations selected for breaching. Provision of said elements with mortar and artillery reinforcement and stocks for 7 days of shelling. Positioning of 30 groups of LeT fidayeen at each of the 17 locations, in preparation for infiltration. Provision of equipment such as NVGs, arms, comm sets to the fidayeen groups. Readying of Nasr missiles with TNWs.

2) MILITARY ASSAULT on UNDEFENDED TARGET in one's OWN TERRITORY: Targeting of a selected village on Pakistan side of LOC with the following: attack by Border Action Teams elements wearing Indian commando uniforms, beheading of 6 inhabitants by these elements in a public area, video recording of the beheading by cell phone cameras, followed by shelling the village with Indian munitions and from a direction that appears to come from India.

3) DISINFORMATION WARFARE: Information about impending Indian attack, and request for further information, conveyed to PLA. Cell phone videos of beheading are sent to ISPR, CNN, and BBC.

All these three goals are part of "setting the stage", which Shiv has cited as his Intended Result. Therefore we must weigh the PROs and CONs separately around each of these goals.

Goal 1) PREPARATION FOR FUTURE MOVES

PRO: All the actions described fall within the purview and capacity of the Pakistan Army and are approved for Lt. Gen. Pakhan to take. Weight +1

CON: (Paraphrased, based on RIEN's input) When news (or even rumors) of Pakhan's forces shelling/beheading in a Pakistani village get out within Pakistan itself... and they very well might given RAW presence and/or the large numbers of PA and LeT personnel involved in this op... the results may include protests, will be counterproductive for future moves, and hence diminish the effectiveness of preparation.

This is based on Rien's following CONS which I have rolled into one as described above.

Con: We have radio surveillance and listen for chatter. Multiple jehadis/soldiers means more chance of a slipup.
500 troops are involved. Chance of leakage is proportional to no of troops involved. 500 should mean roll is loaded
in my favour.
Con: RAW has informers in Pakistan. Multiple soldiers/jehadis are involved in the generals action. Therefore, 100% chance of leakage to a RAW informant. 2 people can keep a secret if 1 of them are dead.
Con: Local villagers have suffered from shelling in the past. They have taken action against PA in the past.
Con: Chaotic situation with Pakistani government distracted by protests.
http://www.ryot.org/pakistani-protester ... rif/790485
Con: Army will be called on to deal with protesters.


However, I make the ruling as Umpire that the possibility of leaks, plus the actual protests if any occur, would not be large enough IN TIME to significantly impact the results of the move described in THIS action. So while most CONs are weighted -2, I will weight this CON as -1.

Target Roll: 10 + 1 -1= 10 or less on 3d6. Actual Roll: 10.

RESULT: Success.

The process of positioning the PA units and is a little hurried and slipshod, largely because of the slack response of the logistics corps which are badly trained/out of practice in conducting an operation of this size. However, in general the preparatory goals are more or less accomplished. LeT is by far the most competent element involved in the preparatory phase: one gets the feeling they've been waiting, and drilling, for something like this for a long time.
Anyway, at the end of this move your forces are positioned across from 17 locations on the LOC which, to the best of your knowledge, are suitable for breaching and infiltration following sustained artillery barrage. Teams of 25-30 Fidayeen are in place at each location. Every team has at least one comm set and between 8-15 functioning NVGs, plus small arms and ammunition; also water and packets of dried fruits sufficient to survive in wilderness for up to 3 days.

The 17 positions are fortified with elements of X Corps' Independent Artillery Brigade (48 105- and 155-mm guns divided to cover 17 LOC positions with interlacing fields of fire wherever possible) plus mortar teams from X Corps' infantry divisions.

The only sketchy factor from the PA side has been the transfer of Nasr missiles with TNW to Gen. Pakhan's command. The missile batteries are available, but Raheel Shareef and SFC-in-charge Gen Obaidullah Khattak are not comfortable giving over the arming and launch codes at this time.

There are all kinds of rumors circulating in the nearby towns and villages, but as yet the shock and building anger have overpowered any urge among the people to protest against Islamabad or disrupt law and order. Compliance is the way things are going, for now anyway.

Goal 2) MILITARY ASSAULT on UNDEFENDED TARGET in one's OWN TERRITORY.

PRO: There is no military opposition: nothing to stop Gen Pakhan's forces from conducting the beheading and video recording it, or from shelling the village. "No one can stop it, we are killing our own".

PRO: Total advantage of initiative/element of surprise." We make the first move and hold the initiative with our version".

CON: None. There is nothing to stop this military assault from succeeding except random chance (black swan event).

Target Roll: 10 + 2 = 12 or less on 3d6.
Actual Roll: 5.

RESULT: Success.

The village is attacked by a squad of "Indian commandos" at 0600 hours. Several inhabitants are killed in the assault but about a dozen are allowed to flee with bullet or grenade injuries. Others are rounded up and taken to the market square. At least 50 locals witness the family of 6 being beheaded in the market square at 0715. Cell phone video recordings are taken of the beheading, and the speech by one Indian commando who swears in the name of Modi that Akhand Bharat will be restored, Muslims will be killed wherever they are, let this be a warning etc.

The commandos withdraw by 0800 and the shelling begins from X Corps IAB positions north and south of the village. It continues for the next three hours. No dwellings, people or animals survive.

GOAL 3: DISINFORMATION WAR

PRO: No one will believe that we would kill our own especially when we have video footage of men in Indian army uniforms.

PRO: Indians (and others) may suspect a conspiracy, but tthey will get no time to do anything as we move on to the next step.

And some CONs by Rien and Aditya Dange. These, too, I will paraphrase and modify without giving individual credit:

CON: India will collect UAV evidence regarding the beheading/commando assault.

CON: Indian WLRs will track and establish the origin of the Pakistani shells.

CON: Between the large number of TSPA/LeT personnel involved, the large number of witnesses, and the presence of RAW agents in the region... it is possible that more evidence will be collected (cell phone photos, videos, intercepted transmissions) that will inhibit the capacity of Pakistan to use the incident in a disinformation war.

CON (by me): Nobody trusts the Pakistanis. Seriously. At the time of Chittisinghpora the whole "Indian Army Uniform" gambit may have worked but by now nobody is going to take such a report at face value and start publishing it without lots of verification. Which is not going to happen in the next 18 hours, therefore it will not be of any help to Gen Pakhan's disinformation war attempt.

(NOTE: Aditya Dange's and Rien's points about FLIRs, Intensified Patrolling, Detection of preparatory PA troop movements, surveillance, etc. are all VERY VALID, YET they cannot possibly affect Shiv's goal of starting a disinformation war in THIS move. They can only be of value to the Indians when making THEIR subsequent move... not immediately affecting the success or failure of Shiv's attempt to start spreading FUD. They can be used as PRO arguments by Rien when he makes a move as MOD of India, to argue that he is likely to have received quick and relatively accurate reports about the PA action... but they cannot be used in the PROCON evaluation for THIS move).

Target Roll: 10 + 2 - 8 = 4 or less on 3d6. Actual Roll: 11.

RESULT: Failure.

At least in the short term, there is no widespread international condemnation of India (or in fact, anyone else except faceless "terrorist groups"/"extremist elements") for the attack on the village. News reports are conflicting and confused. The Urdu Press takes up the preferred line, calling it an "Indian Attack" in the afternoon papers. The English press is baffled and makes an on-camera circus out of waiting tensely by the phone for imminently-expected "latest official updates" throughout the evening. The buzz is that the Indians did it, but in the cities and towns of Pakistan it still has not risen to the sort of mass outrage that (for example) India experienced following 26/11.

ISPR gives its comments dutifully to BBC and CNN saying "we are still investigating but we believe it to be an Indian military aggression and we will retaliate if that is the case". The cell phone video of beheading is also sent to BBC, CNN, New York Times, Washington Post, Al Jazeera etc. but most of these outlets sit on it without broadcasting it, claiming a need for "further verification."

Only in India, The Hindu writes a "Truth Must Be Found" editorial, and NDTV invites a few kurta-clad guests on the evening shows to ask the "brave questions"... is Modi a Mad Dog, Are We Now Like Pakistan, Is RSS = LeT, etc. But on the whole there is only skepticism. Social Media is where you are getting the only decent traction for your version of the story... ISIS guys are forwarding the beheading video to each other and making snide tweets about the Kaffir's effeminate machete technique.

The phones are ringing off the hook in the MOD and PMO with requests to comment on what happened, from both the Indian and the International press.

FINAL RESULT: Two of the three INTENDED RESULTS of Shiv's second MOVE were achieved. The third one failed. Thus Shiv has lost the initiative and has to give up his conch to the next player.


Rien, as MOD of India... it's your turn now.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby jamwal » 26 Aug 2014 12:39

One thing:

Gen Pakhan's and Amir's plans don't exactly tally.

CON
Coordination with LeT to select 500 of the most dedicated Fidayeen, to be split into groups of 30 and transported to 17 locations where LoC fencing is to be breached


Trained fidayeens are to be sent from IB or Nepal and Bangladesh. The ones sent through LoC in J&K will just be canon fodder for distraction and false intelligence. Granted, LeT is nowhere near ISI/PA in terms of planning, intelligence , strategy etc, but at the end of the day, it's LeT which will be operating inside enemy territory.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rien » 28 Aug 2014 12:09

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

MoD - As previously discussed, because we have sensors on LoC and MoD has a TV, will have received media reports and relatively accurate information from BSF/IA.

Action: After discussion with BSF/IA generals, call for mini Cold Start.

Result: Mini Cold Start is supposed to result in strike groups being ready for action in 72-96 hours. The MoD will now have the ablity to order a reverse Kargil or respond to one at will.Or any other border contingency, including responce to infiltrators. We are mobilizing just 2 strike groups. Should complete under 72 hours.

Rudra, can you start the clock before the media reports, because I would have received accurate info about shelling prior to media.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby member_27164 » 28 Aug 2014 15:17

Rien, your action does not makes it clear at which place strike groups would mobilize.
Let me take liberty of place for following points:

Place: LOC/ IB where shelling is going to take place
Con 1: Mobilizing strike group at the same place where shelling is going to happen will fuel pak's lies that india is about to attack. international opinion can tilt in pakistan's favour and indian action will be condemned.
Con 2: NDA govt is anyways considered as anti-pakistani. Dialogue between india and pakistan was recently called off by india due to ceasefire violation incidents. mobilizing troops will further strengthen the western belief and blame will be put on india for purposefully halting peace process.
Con 3: possibility of sanctions by other nations.
Con 4: Human rights groups will start crying against india louder.
Con 5: Indian pro-pakistani muslims will start feeling unsecure and may start riots, rallies hence domestic stability can be shaken.
Con 6: UN (USA) will look at this as another opportunity to present themselves as big brother to both india and pakistan.

Pro 1: domestic opinion (barring pro-pakistani groups) will be in favor as from past 2 -3 years there have been many demoralizing incidents like chinese incursions, beheading of soldiers, cross border tunnels etc.
Pro 2: as intel indicates some 500 terrorists are about to enter and if even 50% of them can be killed and if majority of the remaining could be pushed back in pakistan there will be massive blow to paki (both LeT and PA) morale. Even few of their top/middle level leaders can be captured/killed. Hence their network can be weaken for at least few months.
Pro 3: good chance to weaken paki infrastructure at LOC/border.

I personally think this action will be like falling in the trap of gen. Pakhan.

Place: IB in rajasthan, punjab
Pro 1: domestic opinion (barring pro-pakistani groups) will be in favor as from past 2 -3 years there have been many demoralizing incidents like chinese incursions, beheading of soldiers, cross border tunnels etc.
Pro 2: as intel indicates some 500 terrorists are about to enter and if even 50% of them can be killed and if majority of the remaining could be pushed back in pakistan there will be massive blow to paki (both LeT and PA) morale. Even few of their top/middle level leaders can be captured/killed. Hence their network can be weaken for at least few months.
Pro 3: Pakistan govt/army will be pressurized by the indian mobilization and may deter.

Con 1: Other countries will become curious and suspicious as they wont know why india is gearing up without any reason.

Umpire, please consider appropriate set of pro-cons for evaluation once MoD reveals its place of action in press conf held on BR :)

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby ramana » 28 Aug 2014 20:09

jamwal, that is called wild card. As far as I know the current play has to be localized to Lt. Gen Pakhan's domain. So no changing the extent of the game. We still are in learning mode.

PS: If I understand Lt Gen Pakhan's (the real ones and not our players) mind set he will have Hafeez Suar roasted and served as barbecue for deviating from playbook.

Data point:
- During Kargil Lt Gen Aziz told Mushy "We have them by the scruff of the neck and they will do what we want!"

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rien » 31 Aug 2014 18:34

Ramana quoted real Paki general, he wins this one. Thanks Aditya. Can you take over as IA general and command a strike corps?

I agree that this is falling into trap of the Pakistani general, but in Kargil we also "fell into the trap" of a Pakistani general. Even if you fall in a trap, can they successfully execute their plan or not? That plan was, after all, tactically brilliant. I think Aditya's clarification is good, and if Rudradev agrees we can add him as participant IA general.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby shiv » 02 Sep 2014 08:55

What I find difficult to understand about this game is that it requires one move to be analysed at a time. But war does not work that way. The plan that I had posted was as follows

Pakis simply kill a few villagers on their own side, blame India and within one day start heavy shelling of the border based on the excuse that Indian had shelled border village.

The likely Indian response would be massive shelling in retaliation (or WKK/Kongress/MMS restraint?) causing much damage on the Pakistani side.

But in the process of this clearly cooked up mess, the idea would be to try and push in hundreds of infiltrators. Chances are that only 20 will get across and the rest will be stopped or killed, and Pakistan will suffer heavy damage at the border, many posts destroyed, many killed

At this stage Pakis will call a halt to the operation and claim victory, knowing that
1. India will stop when they stop, having done much more damage than they did
2. They have successfully internationalized the Kashmir conflict and shown it to be a nuclear flashpoint
3. They have shown India's murderous intent (the destroyed village and mosque)
4. They have assuaged the sagging morale of their forces by allowing them to shoot at Indians and be martyred doing Allah's work
5. They have managed to help 20 (out of a planned 500) terrorists into India
6. They have a whole list of LeT and Paki army martyrs to prove to Pakistanis that India is the real enemy
7. Pakistan has survived yet another vicious attack by India

This operation will be called a success by both India and Pakistan. This is exactly how the India-Pakistan equation has worked for many decades.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 02 Sep 2014 09:07

Sorry all- just got back from a long weekend out of town. Will resume analysis with Rien's move tomorrow. Thanks for your patience.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rien » 02 Sep 2014 17:33

shiv wrote:What I find difficult to understand about this game is that it requires one move to be analysed at a time. But war does not work that way. The plan that I had posted was as follows

Pakis simply kill a few villagers on their own side, blame India and within one day start heavy shelling of the border based on the excuse that Indian had shelled border village.

The likely Indian response would be massive shelling in retaliation (or WKK/Kongress/MMS restraint?) causing much damage on the Pakistani side.

But in the process of this clearly cooked up mess, the idea would be to try and push in hundreds of infiltrators. Chances are that only 20 will get across and the rest will be stopped or killed, and Pakistan will suffer heavy damage at the border, many posts destroyed, many killed

At this stage Pakis will call a halt to the operation and claim victory, knowing that
1. India will stop when they stop, having done much more damage than they did
2. They have successfully internationalized the Kashmir conflict and shown it to be a nuclear flashpoint
3. They have shown India's murderous intent (the destroyed village and mosque)
4. They have assuaged the sagging morale of their forces by allowing them to shoot at Indians and be martyred doing Allah's work
5. They have managed to help 20 (out of a planned 500) terrorists into India
6. They have a whole list of LeT and Paki army martyrs to prove to Pakistanis that India is the real enemy
7. Pakistan has survived yet another vicious attack by India

This operation will be called a success by both India and Pakistan. This is exactly how the India-Pakistan equation has worked for many decades.


I agree that the real life equation has worked that way for many decades. It's hard to simulate a real war. Have to accept tradeoffs. But the recent real life equation has changed.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 874090.cms

A total of 12 Indian soldiers were killed through 2013 by Pakistan forces. This year there has been only one casualty — of a BSF jawan — due to sniper firing a month ago.

READ ALSO: Truce violations on LoC at same level as last year's, but up along International Border

"Ever since mid-August ceasefire violations, we have gone on complete offensive, firing both guns and area weapons. We are thrice in strength of Pakistan Rangers and thus have as many weapons. This has resulted in heavy casualties on the other side even though Pakistan Rangers are being supported by their Army. We will continue to retaliate fiercely until Pakistan stops firing," said a senior BSF officer.



Also the fence works. Infiltration has almost been stopped.So as compared to earlier, we are having more success stopping infiltrators. Note that insurgency has almost died out. Before, Pakistan could point to real damage done by infiltrators. But now, that's no longer the case. It matters if the exchange ratio is a lot in our side. Even jehadis don't want to die for no apparent gain.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby shiv » 02 Sep 2014 20:35

Don't want to digress but it is a myth to say that infiltraion has nearly stopped. reduced yes. Stopped no. See this news from 6 hours ago
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/jk-3-terrori ... 3-245.html

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 03 Sep 2014 07:37

Ok, Rien's move #1 as MOD India.
MoD - As previously discussed, because we have sensors on LoC and MoD has a TV, will have received media reports and relatively accurate information from BSF/IA.

Action: After discussion with BSF/IA generals, call for mini Cold Start.

Result: Mini Cold Start is supposed to result in strike groups being ready for action in 72-96 hours. The MoD will now have the ablity to order a reverse Kargil or respond to one at will.Or any other border contingency, including responce to infiltrators. We are mobilizing just 2 strike groups. Should complete under 72 hours.


PROs/CONs

PRO1: A combination of UAV/FLIR/WLR ELINT and radio chatter SIGINT alerts Delhi to the fact that Pakistan shelled its own village along the LOC, hours before the first controversial reports of beheading begin to appear in the media. (Rien) Therefore something is afoot and it's best to be prepared for some Paki stunt, which may be deterred pre-emptively by rapid deployment of strike groups (Aditya Dange).

PRO2: Separately, HUMINT sources have intimated that a large number of jihadis have moved into infiltration positions at a dozen or more locations along the LOC. (Rien & Aditya Dange) Therefore, best to be prepared to retaliate forcefully in case there is another major terrorist attack.

PRO3: After years of humiliating incursions and atrocities by both Pakistan and China meeting a weak response from New Delhi, a quick, sharp blow to Pakistan in response to any incursion attempt would signal (both internally and externally) that India is not to be messed with under the new dispensation. (Aditya Dange)

CON1: Cabinet secretary objects: This move could very well escalate to all-out conflict, i.e. war. Such an eventuality will drastically affect every single ministry and all the plans for development and restructuring that they have been working on since the new govt. took office. Not to mention the numerous foreign policy initiatives the PM has undertaken... including China, Japan, and in September the US. No way this should be risked without a cabinet vote, for which a quorum will be possible to convene 36 hours from now at the earliest.

CON2: Service chiefs caution: In case of escalation we are not ready for all out war. Thanks to ten years of mismanagement, neglect and delayed acquisitions...equipment is in a shambles, readiness is way below par, and IAF in particular is down to fewer than 32 airworthy fighter squadrons. If we are provoked into escalation and a joint riposte by China and Pakistan is sprung, we cannot guarantee the outcome. We should wait to gather more intel on what the Pakis are up to, and also to ascertain what the Chinese might be putting together on the LAC (at least 72 hours). Until then, better for the BSF and in-theater IA units along LOC to handle this the usual way... absorb the infiltration attempt, retaliate massively but locally to artillery fire, finish the jihadis who come through within our borders.

Target Roll: 10 (base chance) + 3 -4 = 9 or less on 3d6. Actual Roll = 14.

RESULT: Failure.

New Delhi DA Day-1 2030 IST.

The PMO determines that there is no justification for the risk of preparing a Cold Start at this moment. We cannot afford an escalation that could spiral out of control so soon after we have taken charge of the government and begun to heal the many ravages of the past decade. Not only that, we cannot afford another "hool" like Parakram... if we are seen to be readying strike groups for action and then fail to follow through yet again, we will acquire a reputation for making empty threats, which is worse than not making the gesture at all.

The PM is not against Cold Start in principle, but requests that you wait until a Cabinet meeting is convened, and come up with some convincing arguments and intel based on emerging facts at that time. He orders the Cabinet Secretary to assemble a quorum for the meeting within 24 hours-- "drag them out of their beds if you have to". At that time you can present your case again.

It is now LeT Amir (jamwal)'s move.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 03 Sep 2014 07:55

shiv wrote:What I find difficult to understand about this game is that it requires one move to be analysed at a time. But war does not work that way.


It doesn't, but the breaking down of real-life situations into one-move increments is at the heart of any wargame, or indeed any analysis. It is the only way one can reasonably posit alternative outcomes if specific moves were not made as expected, or if they led to unexpected outcomes. Of course one can argue in favor of "gestalt analysis" but in practice, that often amounts to presenting a wholesale scenario with little room for hypothesis testing at any of the many variable levels.


The plan that I had posted was as follows

Pakis simply kill a few villagers on their own side, blame India and within one day start heavy shelling of the border based on the excuse that Indian had shelled border village.

The likely Indian response would be massive shelling in retaliation (or WKK/Kongress/MMS restraint?) causing much damage on the Pakistani side.

But in the process of this clearly cooked up mess, the idea would be to try and push in hundreds of infiltrators. Chances are that only 20 will get across and the rest will be stopped or killed, and Pakistan will suffer heavy damage at the border, many posts destroyed, many killed

At this stage Pakis will call a halt to the operation and claim victory, knowing that
1. India will stop when they stop, having done much more damage than they did
2. They have successfully internationalized the Kashmir conflict and shown it to be a nuclear flashpoint
3. They have shown India's murderous intent (the destroyed village and mosque)
4. They have assuaged the sagging morale of their forces by allowing them to shoot at Indians and be martyred doing Allah's work
5. They have managed to help 20 (out of a planned 500) terrorists into India
6. They have a whole list of LeT and Paki army martyrs to prove to Pakistanis that India is the real enemy
7. Pakistan has survived yet another vicious attack by India

This operation will be called a success by both India and Pakistan. This is exactly how the India-Pakistan equation has worked for many decades.


I don't disagree that you may very well be right. But having jumped right into a trial game, let's see how this plays out with the additional degrees of freedom afforded by other players, plus the PROCON system, plus random chance. Maybe there is room to think about moves that the other side might not expect. The Matrix will resist changes to the status quo, as in real life, which is what we saw with Rien's move. Still, with enough PROs put forward to overcome the inevitable CONs, there is good reason to believe a move will occur/succeed, and the Matrix itself will be changed. This, arguably, is not an unfair approximation of real life situations.

One issue we're encountering as we learn the Engle Matrix system is how to define a "move" for any particular Sim.

Obviously the whole scale/time-frame/multi-faceted nature of a single "move", i.e. a single proposed ACTION-INTENDED RESULT-PROCON event, will differ vastly depending on whether the Sim is for a squad-level CI engagement within a few square kms, or for a strategic level contest between nations.

Thus for example, during your previous move I tried to include all the preparatory steps you had described into the ACTION, and broke the RESULT out into three categorized outcomes.

I look forward to more thoughts from everybody as to how the rules of The Open Ended Machine/ Engle Matrix could themselves be modified for better application to our field of interest.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby jamwal » 05 Sep 2014 00:07

Sorry, wasn't able to post much due to work and personal matters. Will do so ASAP.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby jamwal » 05 Sep 2014 20:49

So far, LeT's plans are slightly divergent to that of PA.
Anyhow, posting the relevant moves:

MOVE 1

If General Pakhan wants the border to be hot, LeT will send small teams of disposable cannon fodder mujahids for infiltration attempts in certain sectors in Jammu divisionand Kashmir. The team size will be between 4 to 6. These mujahids will be a mix of Kashmiris from occupied Kashmir who wish to go back to their homes and other assorted less trained or useful mujahids which we can sacrifice for sake of diversion.
We will not send our mujahids trained in urban war across LoC.



MOVE 2
These highly trained mujahids will be sent across the border along less guarded southern sectors of Jammu, Punjab and Rajasthan. With support fo ISI and LeT sleeper cells, they will reach some significant Indian border towns and rain hell like in Mumbai. This will ensure that the terror strikes deep in the hearts of Indian populace. Comparatively laxer security in these towns will also mean that we have greater chance of success. Some of the targets we have in mind are Amritsar, Ferozepur, ShriGanganagar, Jammu, Pathankot.



Points that PA, ISI should know:

Sending our mujahids along well guarded J&K LoC is a wastage of the effort we put in training them. If they die on the fence, everything goes to waste. We need to get them inside Indian cities with minimum casualities, not waste ammunition, time and lives fighting Indian border guards.

General Pakhan will need to modify his plan a bit.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby member_27164 » 06 Sep 2014 12:09

jamwal wrote:So far, LeT's plans are slightly divergent to that of PA.
Anyhow, posting the relevant moves:

MOVE 1

If General Pakhan wants the border to be hot, LeT will send small teams of disposable cannon fodder mujahids for infiltration attempts in certain sectors in Jammu divisionand Kashmir. The team size will be between 4 to 6. These mujahids will be a mix of Kashmiris from occupied Kashmir who wish to go back to their homes and other assorted less trained or useful mujahids which we can sacrifice for sake of diversion.
We will not send our mujahids trained in urban war across LoC.


MOVE 2
These highly trained mujahids will be sent across the border along less guarded southern sectors of Jammu, Punjab and Rajasthan. With support fo ISI and LeT sleeper cells, they will reach some significant Indian border towns and rain hell like in Mumbai. This will ensure that the terror strikes deep in the hearts of Indian populace. Comparatively laxer security in these towns will also mean that we have greater chance of success. Some of the targets we have in mind are Amritsar, Ferozepur, ShriGanganagar, Jammu, Pathankot.



Points that PA, ISI should know:

Sending our mujahids along well guarded J&K LoC is a wastage of the effort we put in training them. If they die on the fence, everything goes to waste. We need to get them inside Indian cities with minimum casualities, not waste ammunition, time and lives fighting Indian border guards.

General Pakhan will need to modify his plan a bit.


Pros:
1. indians can be kept busy with the bait so that their focus might become less on actual infiltration.
2. due to heavy rains and floods in indian j&k IA is already busy in rescue operations so there are more chances of successful infiltration (the same reason is a con also. mentioned below in cons section)
3. those who escaped from indian forces can then either become sleeper cells or asked to carry out terror activities. (note: Amir's plan does not mention what 'cannon fodder' will do if escaped so i am assuming they are up to his disposal at will. anyways, lo loss for sure) so they can be used to strengthen network across india.
4. Hujur-e-ala i.e. Lt. gen. Pakhan will be happy and LeT may hope for bigger role in further plans.


Cons:
1. due to floods and rains it is more difficult to cross LOC as terrain has became more hostile.
1a) risk of landslides, cloud burst is more
1b) tunnels arent helping much. (recently a tunnel is exposed) no time to dig new ones.
2. sleeper cells in flood affected area might not be contacted as communication is hit.
3. it is more difficult to insert mujahids deep inside india for one, indians have become more vigilant on nepal border (tunda, yasin bhatkal, abu jundal arrested in recent years). second, sea routes are dangerous due to monsoon, increased naval and coast guards policing (compared to mumbai 2008 incident). that leaves bangladesh as more promising option.
4. if someone gets caught again like kasab,
4a) pakistan will be highly condemned again.
4b) sleeper cells survived/ created after 26/11 will be exposed.
4c) loss of trained personnel will hamper for short term ahead.
5. lt. gen. pakhan may not change his plan and ask to proceed with given one. This may result in mis-communication between PA and LeT resulting into inadequate covering fire/ fire support required for infiltration
6. if india senses connection between move 1 and move 2 AND/OR in case of con 4, situation may suddenly escalate to at least cold start. or worse, full blown war. UPA no longer rules india. (note: this point may not be suitable if we are analyzing only Amir's perspective however at Pakhan's level it will be huge setback as PA chief has made it clear that Pakhan will not get help from other commanders so i am assuming they may be unprepared for war.)

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rien » 07 Sep 2014 17:12

Pro: Indian troops will be on high alert after border incident.
Pro: As previously discussed, sensors all along border on fence, so bait diversion likely successful.

Con: After Kargil, more likely to suspect action at other places than Kashmir.
Con: Radio chatter is monitored
Con: RAW has humint

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby jamwal » 08 Sep 2014 12:59

Con: After Kargil, more likely to suspect action at other places than Kashmir.

Not enough manpower to guard everyplace. Most attention is on J&K LoC.

Con: Radio chatter is monitored
Con: RAW has humint

Same for local ops too


aditya_dange wrote:




Cons:
1. due to floods and rains it is more difficult to cross LOC as terrain has became more hostile.
1a) risk of landslides, cloud burst is more
1b) tunnels arent helping much. (recently a tunnel is exposed) no time to dig new ones.

Supply lines of army are disrupted, infrastructure damages, coms damaged. Infiltration is easier during natural disasters. Tunnels are just one of numerous ways to get in. Local smugglers can be paid to get people in.

2. sleeper cells in flood affected area might not be contacted as communication is hit.

Minor annoyance that has to be encountered evertywhere. True for everyplace.

3. it is more difficult to insert mujahids deep inside india for one, indians have become more vigilant on nepal border (tunda, yasin bhatkal, abu jundal arrested in recent years). second, sea routes are dangerous due to monsoon, increased naval and coast guards policing (compared to mumbai 2008 incident). that leaves bangladesh as more promising option.


Rewards are much greater. Beats getting most mujahids killed by border guards.

4. if someone gets caught again like kasab,
4a) pakistan will be highly condemned again.
4b) sleeper cells survived/ created after 26/11 will be exposed.
4c) loss of trained personnel will hamper for short term ahead.

Mujahids will not be told everything, no more than what's absolutely necessary. They will carry a poison capsule at all times to kill themselves if caught. They will not stay in India for long.

5. lt. gen. pakhan may not change his plan and ask to proceed with given one. This may result in mis-communication between PA and LeT resulting into inadequate covering fire/ fire support required for infiltration

Valid concern

6. if india senses connection between move 1 and move 2 AND/OR in case of con 4, situation may suddenly escalate to at least cold start. or worse, full blown war. UPA no longer rules india. (note: this point may not be suitable if we are analyzing only Amir's perspective however at Pakhan's level it will be huge setback as PA chief has made it clear that Pakhan will not get help from other commanders so i am assuming they may be unprepared for war.)
[/quote]

Past record of successive Indian govt proves that they don't have stomach for any kind of invasion.


The mujahids sent for diversion under covering fire will most likely die. If any of them survive, they will do small hit and run attacks in isolated places but keep low. Indian forces will spend their resources hunting these low value targets down, while they are distracted from our primary objectives. As these mujahids wouldn't know anything about our game plan, their capture wouldn't affect anything.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 09 Sep 2014 09:03

Apologies again for the delay in progressing.
Jamwal's Move as Amir of LeT.

MOVE 1

If General Pakhan wants the border to be hot, LeT will send small teams of disposable cannon fodder mujahids for infiltration attempts in certain sectors in Jammu divisionand Kashmir. The team size will be between 4 to 6. These mujahids will be a mix of Kashmiris from occupied Kashmir who wish to go back to their homes and other assorted less trained or useful mujahids which we can sacrifice for sake of diversion.
We will not send our mujahids trained in urban war across LoC.



MOVE 2
These highly trained mujahids will be sent across the border along less guarded southern sectors of Jammu, Punjab and Rajasthan. With support fo ISI and LeT sleeper cells, they will reach some significant Indian border towns and rain hell like in Mumbai. This will ensure that the terror strikes deep in the hearts of Indian populace. Comparatively laxer security in these towns will also mean that we have greater chance of success. Some of the targets we have in mind are Amritsar, Ferozepur, ShriGanganagar, Jammu, Pathankot.


The Amir has written this out as two moves, but just as we did with Shiv's second move, we will consider these as a single action with separate intended results and gauge each intended result per its own pros/cons.

ACTION: LeT selects 100 mujahids for Gen. Pakhan's infiltration ops. Some of these are dedicated but incompetent and inexperienced farmboys of Bahwalpur (the ones with peachy-bottom wives are given preference for some reason). Others of this cohort are selected from the volunteers who came from Indian-Occupied Kashmir, and have been growing increasingly restless and inconvenient over the last couple of years. The equipment (NVGs, comm sets) they are given is serviceable... some of it... but not the best in the LeT's armory by far. Note that Gen Pakhan DOES NOT KNOW that LeT has assigned him second-rate infiltrators, and will not know this unless LeT Amir, the ISI, or someone else tips him off.

Meanwhile, LeT attempts to infiltrate 30 crack fidayeen, trained in urban warfare and well-equipped, in teams of 6 across the IB to the following targets: Amritsar, Ferozepur, Shri Ganganagar, Jammu, Pathankot. They are ordered to cross via established wilderness routes, seek assistance from jihadi or khalistani sympathizers in the villages en route, and finally establish themselves at ISI safehouses in these cities. This operation (since Jamwal has not specified otherwise) is going ahead without waiting for Gen Pakhan's infiltration attempt across the LoC. Once in place the LeT urban fidayeen will await the order to create mayhem, kill the maximum number of civilians, destroy the maximum value of government/infrastructure targets of opportunity. The leaders of these cells have had extensive urban warfare experience in Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Iraq or Somalia.

INTENDED RESULTS:

GOAL 1) Do not waste valuable LeT assets in Gen Pakhan's LoC Crossing, because many of those who attempt to infiltrate in Gen Pakhan's gambit are likely to get killed. Send 2nd-rate mujahids to LoC instead.

PRO/CON
PRO: Gen Pakhan isn't directly linked to the ISI, and has no way of knowing how well-trained the mujahids sent to him by Amir LeT might be. So the Amir can get away with selecting whoever he wants for Gen Pakhan's mission.

PRO: (Aditya Dange) Amir LeT will come off looking very cooperative for his willingness to send 100 mujahids to infiltrate LoC under Gen Pakhan's orders. The PA is always worried about which Tanzeems are loyal to GHQ. The readiness of LeT to cooperate with the op will stand Amir Sahab in good stead and guarantee both his future security (value to the state of Pakistan) and generous flow of funds.

CON: None. There is nothing to stop Amir of LeT from doing this.

Target Roll: 10 + 2 = 12 or less on 3d6. Actual Roll = 8.

RESULT FOR GOAL 1: Success.

The 100 mujahids sent to coordinate with Gen Pakhan and infiltrate during the artillery exchange are basically dummies. With luck they might kill a few Indian soldiers or civilians on the other side of LoC, but it is most likely that they will meet a swift end.

For clarification: There are, as I wrote in this post viewtopic.php?p=1707401#p1707401 a total of 500 mujahids waiting to infiltrate at 17 points along the LoC, per Gen Pakhan's preparations. Amir LeT has supplied 100 of them. The others in this cohort will therefore be from various other Tanzeems beholden to the ISI: Al Badr, JeM, HuJI etc.

GOAL 2) Infiltrate 5 teams of 6 highly trained fidayeen each across the IB while attention is focused on LoC because of the shelling/beheading incident.

PRO: (Jamwal, Rien, Aditya Dange) The incident of shelling and beheading has diverted the attention of security forces to the LoC. So security forces are relatively less watchful at Punjab border.

PRO: (myself) There is a thriving drug trade across the Punjab border. Disguised as Sikhs, the fidayeen would be able to follow narco-trails, take advantage of existing "arrangements", and cross the wilderness.

PRO: (Jamwal) There are severe floods in Punjab at the moment. This actually makes infiltration easier at the Punjab border because of relatively lax security.

CON: (Rien) There is a possibility of Indian security forces getting wind of the Punjab infilitration via humint or radio chatter. However, I consider this a relatively weak CON (-1 rather than -2) because the infiltration team sizes are very small, because they are highly trained, and because of diversion to the LoC.

CON: (Aditya Dange) If Gen Pakhan or his superiors (COAS, etc.) find out that LeT has taken its own initiative to provoke a war with India by sending fidayeen teams into Indian cities, separate and apart from Gen Pakhan's approved plan of shelling/infiltration across LoC, things could go badly for the Amir. The TSPA/ISI may insist that the Fidayeen teams (even if they successfully infiltrate Punjab) must be recalled or ordered to desist, because GHQ wants to exercise sole control over the escalation ladder.

Target Roll: 10 +3 -3 = 10 or less on 3d6. Actual Roll: 12

RESULT FOR GOAL 2: Failure.

Fidayeen teams headed for Jammu and Pathankot are intercepted by Indian security forces in northern Punjab. Firefights break out in the heavy rain and the 12 members of these 2 teams are killed, with concomitant loss of three Indian jawans. Indian security forces report back to Delhi that this may be evidence of a concerted Khalistani terrorist initiative; however, some of the dead "Khalistanis" look more like Pathans than like Sardars!

The other three teams, headed for Ferozepur, Amritsar and Shri Ganganagar:

As far as Amir of LeT knows: All communication has been lost. This could be because they are deliberately maintaining radio silence, but that in turn could indicate that they are under pressure from heightened Indian vigilance.

As far as Gen Pakhan and TSPA know: Some Tanzeem has attempted a crossing into Indian Punjab without prior authorization from COAS. The infiltration attempt has led to firefights and set alarm bells ringing in New Delhi.

As far as MOD India knows: Reports arrive of coordinated terrorist infiltration attempts being foiled across the Punjab border.

What really happened:
The team intended for Ferozepur arrived at a small village 25 km from the city, but their contact at first refused to let them inside his hut, claiming that the firefights had made things too dangerous. They forced entry at gunpoint and are now holding the contact and his family hostage as the storms lash the dark night sky outside.

The team intended for Amritsar is still in the wilderness, trekking through the rain, and may be caught in the open at any time.

The team intended for Shri Ganganagar has found shelter at an abandoned hut about 50 km from the city. Their contact was not present when they arrived. They do not know anyone else in the village where they have taken refuge.

Since Jamwal's Goal 2 did not meet with success, he loses the initiative and Shiv (Gen Pakhan) once again becomes the conch-holder.



Note: Jamwal and Aditya Dange, I have NOT considered the following as a PROCON factor for THIS particular move:
jamwal wrote:
aditya_dange wrote:6. if india senses connection between move 1 and move 2 AND/OR in case of con 4, situation may suddenly escalate to at least cold start. or worse, full blown war. UPA no longer rules india. (note: this point may not be suitable if we are analyzing only Amir's perspective however at Pakhan's level it will be huge setback as PA chief has made it clear that Pakhan will not get help from other commanders so i am assuming they may be unprepared for war.)


Past record of successive Indian govt proves that they don't have stomach for any kind of invasion.


The mujahids sent for diversion under covering fire will most likely die. If any of them survive, they will do small hit and run attacks in isolated places but keep low. Indian forces will spend their resources hunting these low value targets down, while they are distracted from our primary objectives. As these mujahids wouldn't know anything about our game plan, their capture wouldn't affect anything.


Because it is all still speculative, and it does not relate to the success or failure of the INTENDED RESULT of THIS particular move. Besides, Amir of LeT may have his own plans to provoke a war that do not necessarily coincide with what COAS/Gen Pakhan etc. might think is in Pakistan's best interest!

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby jamwal » 09 Sep 2014 21:28

Sorry, I wasn't detailed enough with last post. But in my previous post, I had mentioned asking for support from ISI. Any LeT offensive inside India will definitely need support from ISI. LeT by itself would't have any significant intelligence network inside India which can be used in such attacks. Whatever information we have from open sources, the sleeper cells, smugglers, agents etc. are always controlled by ISI. LeT is providing food soldiers only.
The local contacts in India will be ISI agents and General Pakhan will know that there will be other infiltration attempts from other sectors. I had not considered it earlier, but not telling General of quality of mujahids sent as canon fodder is an option, not necessity.

You may need to edit the post or leave according to your discretion.

Added later:

Teams sent in in Jammu sector will infiltrate from Akhnoor, Samba, Kathua, RS Pura, away from Punjab border. It has been done before with varying amount of success.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 11 Sep 2014 10:08

Jamwal ji, I believe there are two ways in which LeT could undertake the operation (ACTION) you specified in your post:

MOVE 1

If General Pakhan wants the border to be hot, LeT will send small teams of disposable cannon fodder mujahids for infiltration attempts in certain sectors in Jammu divisionand Kashmir. The team size will be between 4 to 6. These mujahids will be a mix of Kashmiris from occupied Kashmir who wish to go back to their homes and other assorted less trained or useful mujahids which we can sacrifice for sake of diversion.
We will not send our mujahids trained in urban war across LoC.



MOVE 2
These highly trained mujahids will be sent across the border along less guarded southern sectors of Jammu, Punjab and Rajasthan. With support fo ISI and LeT sleeper cells, they will reach some significant Indian border towns and rain hell like in Mumbai. This will ensure that the terror strikes deep in the hearts of Indian populace. Comparatively laxer security in these towns will also mean that we have greater chance of success. Some of the targets we have in mind are Amritsar, Ferozepur, ShriGanganagar, Jammu, Pathankot.


The two ways are:

A ) LeT can take the request to DGISI for clearance all the way at the top level (PA COAS and Corps Commanders). In this case, of course, it would be up to the CC/COAS and Gen Pakhan to agree with your action or disagree to it. So your ACTION would have been "Amir of LeT attempts to persuade the CC/COAS and Gen Pakhan to go with the above plan, etc".

B ) I firmly believe that LeT could undertake such an op (sending cannon fodder to Gen Pakhan's crossing points, while infiltrating well-trained ultras across the IB) WITHOUT taking the request all the way to the top, IF they wanted.

Yes of course, ISI is very much involved in the operational support, intelligence infrastructure etc. for any such initiative. But for the moves you have described, ISI would only need to be involved up to the operational level (Colonel/Major rank officers) and not necessarily at the strategic level (DG, COAS etc.) At this operational level, there are no firm boundaries between LeT and ISI S-wing; many of the S-wing Colonels/Majors have spent much of their careers as de-facto members of LeT and vice versa. So if the Amir of LeT (yourself) ordered them to assist with the logistics of infiltrating small squads of jihadis across the IB into Indian border towns, the operational-level ISI officers would cooperate without necessarily cross-checking for orders from the DG's desk.

(B ) is the scenario that I thought you wanted to go with. If this is not the case then we can replay your ACTION as (A)... where the ACTION does not consist of LeT conducting the ops autonomously, but rather of LeT Amir trying to convince CC/COAS/DGISI to modify Gen Pakhan's plan in accordance with your own suggestions.

In turn, Gen Pakhan's player (Shiv) would be given the opportunity to agree or disagree with your suggestions.

Let me know if you want to replay your ACTION as scenario (A), or should we just keep it as (B = autonomous operation) and continue the simulation.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby jamwal » 12 Sep 2014 12:50

I wrote a post last night just before the daily backup. :\

Anyhow, Amir should share details of his plans with Pakhan privately. It's the general's prerogative about how much information he shares with his superior officers.

That being said, both plans are tempting, but continued support from PA is vital for LeT's survival. Going behind their back wouldn't win LeT any favours.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 19 Sep 2014 08:12

Thanks Jamwal ji. What you have described is indeed a third option: you will share the plan with Gen Pakhan but you will not take it all the way to DGISI/COAS level yourself. As long as Gen Pakhan is amenable to it you will go ahead with the ACTION you have stated previously:

MOVE 1

If General Pakhan wants the border to be hot, LeT will send small teams of disposable cannon fodder mujahids for infiltration attempts in certain sectors in Jammu divisionand Kashmir. The team size will be between 4 to 6. These mujahids will be a mix of Kashmiris from occupied Kashmir who wish to go back to their homes and other assorted less trained or useful mujahids which we can sacrifice for sake of diversion.
We will not send our mujahids trained in urban war across LoC.



MOVE 2
These highly trained mujahids will be sent across the border along less guarded southern sectors of Jammu, Punjab and Rajasthan. With support fo ISI and LeT sleeper cells, they will reach some significant Indian border towns and rain hell like in Mumbai. This will ensure that the terror strikes deep in the hearts of Indian populace. Comparatively laxer security in these towns will also mean that we have greater chance of success. Some of the targets we have in mind are Amritsar, Ferozepur, ShriGanganagar, Jammu, Pathankot. {Also, added after your more recent post: Akhnur, Samba, Kathua, RS Pura}


Shiv, as Gen Pakhan you have to respond.

If you give the full go-ahead, then we will play Amir of LeT's action as a PROCON round. This will be done with the assumption that the plan for secondary infiltrations across the IB stays between Gen Pakhan and Amir of LeT, and has not been officially approved at the level of DGISI/COAS.

If you insist that Amir of LeT must share his plan at the top levels then we will play Amir of LeT's action as "proposal to DGISI/Corps Commanders/COAS" as a PROCON round. Success will mean that the top brass allows this secondary IB infiltration to go ahead, failure will mean that they forbid it.

If you as Gen Pakhan oppose Amir of LeT's plan, then Amir can either decide to go behind everyone's back with the secondary IB infiltration, or try to go over your head and propose his plan to DGISI/Corps Commanders/COAS.

Please provide your input.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby MN Kumar » 19 Sep 2014 17:00

Very good initiative. Just have a suggestion. Can we make this thread available only to the registered users?

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby member_27164 » 19 Sep 2014 19:51

@rudradev,
"proposal to DGISI/Corps Commanders/COAS"
isnt gen pakhan himself is corpse commander?

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 22 Sep 2014 06:31

aditya_dange wrote:@rudradev,
"proposal to DGISI/Corps Commanders/COAS"
isnt gen pakhan himself is corpse commander?

He is the commander of X Corps so yes, he is one of the CCs.
But when Amir of LeT shares the plan with him (to position cannon fodder infiltrators at LoC while sending crack LeT squads across the IB) Gen Pakhan has 3 choices:

-He can agree to go ahead with LeT's plan without informing DGISI/COAS/other Corps Commanders. Keep the knowledge between himself and Amir of LeT.

-He can insist that Amir of LeT must table this plan before DGISI/COAS/CCs and secure their approval before going ahead.

-He can refuse the Amir of LeT. In this case the Amir can either accept the refusal, OR try to go over Gen Pakhan's head and table the plan before DGISI/COAS/CCs himself to secure their approval directly, OR go ahead all by himself behind Gen Pakhan/ISI/TSPA's back.

Each one of those choices has different risks/benefits for the players involved and will influence the matrix in a different way depending on outcome.

We are currently waiting for Shiv as Gen Pakhan to choose one of the above options w.r.t. Amir of LeT's proposal. Shiv, please give your input at earliest convenience.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby shiv » 23 Sep 2014 19:06

Rudradev wrote:Thanks Jamwal ji. What you have described is indeed a third option: you will share the plan with Gen Pakhan but you will not take it all the way to DGISI/COAS level yourself. As long as Gen Pakhan is amenable to it you will go ahead with the ACTION you have stated previously:

MOVE 1

If General Pakhan wants the border to be hot, LeT will send small teams of disposable cannon fodder mujahids for infiltration attempts in certain sectors in Jammu divisionand Kashmir. The team size will be between 4 to 6. These mujahids will be a mix of Kashmiris from occupied Kashmir who wish to go back to their homes and other assorted less trained or useful mujahids which we can sacrifice for sake of diversion.
We will not send our mujahids trained in urban war across LoC.



MOVE 2
These highly trained mujahids will be sent across the border along less guarded southern sectors of Jammu, Punjab and Rajasthan. With support fo ISI and LeT sleeper cells, they will reach some significant Indian border towns and rain hell like in Mumbai. This will ensure that the terror strikes deep in the hearts of Indian populace. Comparatively laxer security in these towns will also mean that we have greater chance of success. Some of the targets we have in mind are Amritsar, Ferozepur, ShriGanganagar, Jammu, Pathankot. {Also, added after your more recent post: Akhnur, Samba, Kathua, RS Pura}


Shiv, as Gen Pakhan you have to respond.

If you give the full go-ahead, then we will play Amir of LeT's action as a PROCON round. This will be done with the assumption that the plan for secondary infiltrations across the IB stays between Gen Pakhan and Amir of LeT, and has not been officially approved at the level of DGISI/COAS.

If you insist that Amir of LeT must share his plan at the top levels then we will play Amir of LeT's action as "proposal to DGISI/Corps Commanders/COAS" as a PROCON round. Success will mean that the top brass allows this secondary IB infiltration to go ahead, failure will mean that they forbid it.

If you as Gen Pakhan oppose Amir of LeT's plan, then Amir can either decide to go behind everyone's back with the secondary IB infiltration, or try to go over your head and propose his plan to DGISI/Corps Commanders/COAS.

Please provide your input.


As Gen Pakhan

Move 1: What's in it for me as Corpse commander? I have to provide supporting fire, logistics and communication and the retaliation will hit my men and the LeT loses only its cannon fodder.

Move 2: In my view this is also destined to fail especially without the support of my logistics and covering fire. What is the Emir of LeT offering me that will ensure that there is no blowback on my position and that my men do not get hit for some future glory of the emir.

It is better if the emir and I are in this together. If the emir is able to go ahead without Pakistan army support that is his outlook and my men will keep off. The entire idea of the exercise is not merely to inflitrate - which we are doing constantly but to try and brand India as an aggressor so that my men, who are weary of fighting their own on the western border can get a real taste of fighting kafirs in a battle that escalates to heavy weaponry including heavy mortar and artillery and a movement of short range missiles in what can bee seen as an "international incident". With the new Indian government signing deals with Japan and China and Australia, we must shake investor confidence in India - especially China needs to read the signal. Simply infiltrating men has been a plan that is continuously on a downhill path.

An international incident will bring India's image down, give my men a chance to fight the real enemy even if we take losses. the emirs men will have a chance as usual to infiltrate. We will de escalate at a time of our choosing.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby jamwal » 25 Sep 2014 14:42

As mentioned earlier pushing in mujahids via LoC is just a wastage of trained manpower. LeT & ISI spends years training these people and sending them over a hot border with Indian army on full alert is just a waste.

Blowback from Indian army is something he has to factor in all scenarios. If Indians observe large number of infiltrators from sectors under his control, they will be much more inclined to hit back harder there. More covert infiltration attempts will stretch their resources and have a much greater chance of success.

As we are all working for the same objectives, I'd leave the matter of informing senior commanders to his discretion though I reserve the right to take them in to loop if absolutely needed. Deteriorating security situation in India will scare away investors quicker than any border incident.

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 11 Oct 2014 07:40

Sorry I let the ball drop with this thread... things got extremely busy IRL and I could not post. But WOW... just think about what we were modeling in Mid September, and what is actually happening right now in Mid October on the IB!

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Re: Engle Matrix Simulations: A BRF Wargaming Proposal

Postby Rudradev » 11 Oct 2014 07:51

Moving forward then, we will make the following assumptions.

Gen Pakhan's position:
It is better if the emir and I are in this together. If the emir is able to go ahead without Pakistan army support that is his outlook and my men will keep off. The entire idea of the exercise is not merely to inflitrate - which we are doing constantly but to try and brand India as an aggressor so that my men, who are weary of fighting their own on the western border can get a real taste of fighting kafirs in a battle that escalates to heavy weaponry including heavy mortar and artillery and a movement of short range missiles in what can bee seen as an "international incident". With the new Indian government signing deals with Japan and China and Australia, we must shake investor confidence in India - especially China needs to read the signal. Simply infiltrating men has been a plan that is continuously on a downhill path.

An international incident will bring India's image down, give my men a chance to fight the real enemy even if we take losses. the emirs men will have a chance as usual to infiltrate. We will de escalate at a time of our choosing.



Amir of LeT's position:

As mentioned earlier pushing in mujahids via LoC is just a wastage of trained manpower. LeT & ISI spends years training these people and sending them over a hot border with Indian army on full alert is just a waste.

Blowback from Indian army is something he has to factor in all scenarios. If Indians observe large number of infiltrators from sectors under his control, they will be much more inclined to hit back harder there. More covert infiltration attempts will stretch their resources and have a much greater chance of success.

As we are all working for the same objectives, I'd leave the matter of informing senior commanders to his discretion though I reserve the right to take them in to loop if absolutely needed. Deteriorating security situation in India will scare away investors quicker than any border incident.


Therefore, for now: Amir of LeT has shared his plan for secondary infiltrations across the IB with Gen Pakhan and Gen Pakhan only. Unless otherwise specified (in the event that CC/COAS/DGISI happen to find out independently, or are specifically informed by Gen Pakhan or Amir of LeT in a subsequent move).... knowledge of the secondary infiltrations will remain between Gen Pakhan and Amir of LeT, and has not been officially approved at the level of DGISI/COAS.


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