Project 75I - It Begins

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Rakesh
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 30 Jul 2020 22:51

Vips wrote:Admiral i doubt if new kilos are available for $300 Million a pop. I know this figure has been quoted a lot citing purchases by Vietnam and others.
The reason is if the new ones were available for $300 Million then how come Russia offered us refurbished Kilos (30 year old Kilos from its feet) at about the same price?

The offer was for 3 used (and modernized) Kilos from Russian Navy + Modernization of 3 Kilos in the Indian fleet at $1.82 Billion.

Kilos indeed hover around that price. That is a fact. Even Comrade Philip will tell you the same thing :)

You will have to ask Russia why they are offloading used Kilos to us.

I get the part of modernizing the Kilos we have now, but used Russian Kilos are definitely not a good option. We have no idea of the material state of these vessels. No amount of visual inspection is going to solve that.

Remember the Gorshkov episode? That vessel was also inspected. How did that turn out?

The Navy is currently studying the proposal of the three used Kilos. I hope they reject it.

I am not against Project 75I, but if the IN needs submarines right away...the Type 636 is your best bet. Otherwise, like I said, wait till post 2030 for the IN to get her hands on the first P-75I.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby V_Raman » 31 Jul 2020 02:15

Even Indonesia is getting HDW subs with ToT - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang_Bog ... _submarine

We wasted our HDW ToT :-(

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby fanne » 31 Jul 2020 02:45

There were rumors that we have full HDW ToT - Meaning we can make all and any number. Can anyone confirm?

I don't know what we have with scorpion, perhaps another screw-driver giri.

The corner stone of any ToT is simple - Can you make the next one all on your own and can you make any number of them?

You can still take HDW ToT - put DRDO AIP, ability to shoot Brahmos (original HDW had missile firing capability), augment with whatever we got from Scorpion (I assume that with all things French we do not have full ToT). That could solve our problem of future submarine. The point to note is, one of the contender for Project 75i is Korean derivative of HDW.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Ankit Desai » 09 Aug 2020 23:52

Import Embargo Sr No 80 - Conventional Submarines !!!!! Starting Dec 2021.

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2020/08 ... -list.html

-Ankit

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby abhik » 10 Aug 2020 00:33

^^^
That 1+ year (Dec 2021) window is to import some kilos?

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Ankit Desai » 10 Aug 2020 02:54

or add 3-6 more Scorpène ?

-Ankit

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby John » 10 Aug 2020 03:05

Rakesh wrote:Kilos indeed hover around that price. That is a fact. Even Comrade Philip will tell you the same thing

You will have to ask Russia why they are offloading used Kilos to us.

Simple it is pure Profit and with cheap oil Putin needs $$, what better way than spend few hundred million (or less ) and upgrade some rusting submarines. Then dump it on us for full price of a new submarine were profit margins are much lower.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Cain Marko » 10 Aug 2020 09:26

Rakesh wrote:[
Kilos indeed hover around that price. That is a fact. Even Comrade Philip will tell you the same thing :)You will have to ask Russia why they are offloading used Kilos to us.
.

Perhaps 3 used kilos will come faster than brand new boats? Maybe the hulls are in similar/incomplete shape like the new krivaks or fulcrums? Dem russkis probly have a boat load of such stock mothballed away that can be brought out and quickly put into play.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Pratyush » 10 Aug 2020 09:39

Cain Marko wrote:
Rakesh wrote:[
Kilos indeed hover around that price. That is a fact. Even Comrade Philip will tell you the same thing :)You will have to ask Russia why they are offloading used Kilos to us.
.

Perhaps 3 used kilos will come faster than brand new boats? Maybe the hulls are in similar/incomplete shape like the new krivaks or fulcrums? Dem russkis probly have a boat load of such stock mothballed away that can be brought out and quickly put into play.



Why the need to buy a used kilo. Knowing Russians, they will underbid refurbishment cost and once India is on the hook, charge 150% the cost of scorpean made by MDL. India will pay like the suckers that we are.

Remember the Vikramaditya.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Cain Marko » 10 Aug 2020 09:48

Pratyush wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Perhaps 3 used kilos will come faster than brand new boats? Maybe the hulls are in similar/incomplete shape like the new krivaks or fulcrums? Dem russkis probly have a boat load of such stock mothballed away that can be brought out and quickly put into play.



Why the need to buy a used kilo. Knowing Russians, they will underbid refurbishment cost and once India is on the hook, charge 150% the cost of scorpean made by MDL. India will pay like the suckers that we are.

Remember the Vikramaditya.

This is the result of the dithering idiots who man India's decision making posts in defence procurement. At this point it is beyond criminal... It's like they wait until process becomes exorbitant and then order asinine piecemeal amounts.

An order for stretched scorpene via MII was a no brainier but did it happen? Ditto with rafale, ditto with mirage, ditto with netra, ditto with Arjun, the list goes on. Ba#tards.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 10 Aug 2020 18:10

The proposal for 3 used Kilos is under consideration at Naval HQ. I hope, truly hope, that deal never goes through.

Refurbishing three of our Kilo boats makes more sense, but not used Kilos from Russia. A ticking time bomb.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Vips » 10 Aug 2020 18:45

Admiral think of this as a Hafta payment to keep the Russians on our side (or at least neutral when yellow material hits the fan).

Just think why would Russia supply us spares of armaments already in service when they know India is moving away towards western systems? Our only hope is that we get at least some value out of what ever Russia would supply us for these payments.

If new Kilos are available for around $350 Million each then we should just buy them unless of course Russian wants $300 Million as Hafta payment from us for each of their 30 year old Subs.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby nachiket » 11 Aug 2020 01:38

That embargo does not apply to anything that is license produced in India. So the Scorpenes are exempt. Also it means that any sub selected for P-75I will have to be made in India like the Scorpenes were. That's all.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Ankit Desai » 11 Aug 2020 08:03

Ankit Desai wrote:Import Embargo Sr No 80 - Conventional Submarines !!!!! Starting Dec 2021.

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2020/08 ... -list.html

-Ankit


Here it comes

Rs 42k crore stealth sub plan to finally kick off

India is now finally getting set to issue the formal tender for the long-pending over Rs 42,000 crore project to make six new-generation stealth submarines domestically with foreign collaboration.

Defence ministry (MoD) sources on Monday said the tender or RFP (request for proposal) “should be issued by next month” to defence shipyard Mazagon Docks (MDL) and private ship-builder L&T for the submarine programme, called Project-75 India (P-75I).

It will be the first project to be launched under the strategic partnership (SP) policy promulgated by the NDA government in May 2017 to boost indigenous production under the overall “Make in India” platform. The submarine or other SP projects will not be impacted by the negative arms import list issued by MoD on Sunday, as was reported.

The two Indian shipyards or SPs will have to submit their technical and commercial bids in response to the RFP after they tie up with their preferred original equipment manufacturer (OEM) from the five short-listed by the MoD earlier.

The five OEMs are Rubin Design Bureau (Russia), Naval Group-DCNS (France), ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (Germany), Navantia (Spain) and Daewoo (South Korea).

The Navy, grappling with an ageing and fast-depleting underwater combat arm, hopes to induct the first new submarine seven years after the P-75I contract is finally inked by 2021-2022.

.......

India’s P-75I for six new submarines, with both land-attack cruise missiles and AIP, was first granted “acceptance of necessity (AoN)” way back in November 2007 but is yet to be finalized.

.......

The MoD says P-75I, which can be finalised by December 2021 at the earliest, will bring in key technologies to ensure the next submarine-building project (P-76) is completely indigenous in design and technology.

Under the approved plans, the Navy should get 18 conventional submarines as well as six nuclear-powered attack submarines (called SSNs) and four nuclear-powered submarines with long-range nuclear-tipped missiles (SSBNs) for effective deterrence against China and Pakistan, as earlier reported.


-Ankit

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby sum » 11 Aug 2020 09:34

nachiket wrote:That embargo does not apply to anything that is license produced in India. So the Scorpenes are exempt. Also it means that any sub selected for P-75I will have to be made in India like the Scorpenes were. That's all.

Cannot believe that am seeing the same HDW story repeat with paying through nose for Scorpene "ToT", finishing it after huge delays and then throwing it all away instead of follow on orders in search of some mythical unicorn P-75I which anyone can guess will not happen before another decade or 2 atleast.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby nachiket » 11 Aug 2020 13:21

sum wrote:Cannot believe that am seeing the same HDW story repeat with paying through nose for Scorpene "ToT", finishing it after huge delays and then throwing it all away instead of follow on orders in search of some mythical unicorn P-75I which anyone can guess will not happen before another decade or 2 atleast.

At least in the HDW case we had the excuse of a scam which derailed the whole thing. There is no scam this time yet the result is the same. Usually it is the MoD and the political establishment that is responsible for fiascoes like this, but in this case I will blame the Navy and the DRDO. The Navy for their unfathomable insistence of Brahmos VLS capability in the P-75I (which I'm still not sure they've given up on) and the DRDO for the delays in the desi AIP system. At least if the AIP system was available to be tried on the final couple of Scorpenes a case could be made to scrap P-75I and go for a repeat order of Scorpenes with desi AIP.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby sum » 11 Aug 2020 14:16

Watching train wrecks happening in front of own eyes is really painful.

Same happened with the AWACs/Netra story where everyone knew the day the order numbers stopped at 3 ( instead of pushing through with 8-10 at one shot) and it was obvious that these would be the last AWACs we would induct for a looong time since any new tender is a non-starter

And yet we did it and the predictable story is known. I can bet that even in 2030, we will be having this thread on BRF about the impending P-75I/<whatever it is called at that time> tendering about to complete

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby nachiket » 11 Aug 2020 23:09

sum wrote:And yet we did it and the predictable story is known. I can bet that even in 2030, we will be having this thread on BRF about the impending P-75I/<whatever it is called at that time> tendering about to complete

True. P-75I is the Navy's MMRCA. However at least the IAF had tried to go the common-sense route and order M2k's before being turned down and forced to go through the MMRCA process.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 11 Aug 2020 23:26

Ankit Desai wrote:Rs 42k crore stealth sub plan to finally kick off

The Navy, grappling with an ageing and fast-depleting underwater combat arm, hopes to induct the first new submarine seven years after the P-75I contract is finally inked by 2021-2022.

So assuming the contract is signed by 2021, the first boat will arrive by 2028. A sign date in 2022, will take delivery of the first one by 2029. That is the Navy's own estimate. I will add another three years (at minimum) delay to that --> 2031 or 2032 delivery date of the first boat.

Hard to believe? The first Scorpene (INS Kalvari) was due to arrive in 2012 and arrived only in 2017, a delay of five years. The Project 75I build will be way more complex than the Scorpene Class build. So the IN will wait - at minimum - 10 years for unobtanium i.e. BrahMos VLS cell on P-75I.

And this is assuming from RFI stage (which is where it is now), the MoD gets to contract signing by 2021/2022 - a timeline of 1 to 2 years. Fantastic! Great Going!

How about continuing with the Scorpene build (2 - 3 boats more) and get half a dozen Type 636.3 Kilo Class boats (new build) from Russia? All of which can be delivered before 2030 and will be cheaper than six Project 75I boats. Substitute Project 75I for the six nuclear boats, which is on the design board right now. I guess that would be too much to ask of our MoD! I guess the PLAN will wait for the IN to get the first P75I vessel to engage us in the Indian Ocean.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby nachiket » 11 Aug 2020 23:30

Rakesh wrote:And this is assuming from RFI stage (which is where it is now), the MoD gets to contract signing by 2021/2022 - a timeline of 1 to 2 years. Fantastic! Great Going!

Admiral saab, perhaps it is time for another Mithai bet? :D

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 11 Aug 2020 23:31

nachiket wrote:
Rakesh wrote:And this is assuming from RFI stage (which is where it is now), the MoD gets to contract signing by 2021/2022 - a timeline of 1 to 2 years. Fantastic! Great Going!

Admiral saab, perhaps it is time for another Mithai bet? :D

Sir, I am game. And this time...I will win :mrgreen:

My bet - no contract will be signed by 2022.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Vips » 12 Aug 2020 05:02

Rakesh wrote:
Ankit Desai wrote:Rs 42k crore stealth sub plan to finally kick off

The Navy, grappling with an ageing and fast-depleting underwater combat arm, hopes to induct the first new submarine seven years after the P-75I contract is finally inked by 2021-2022.

So assuming the contract is signed by 2021, the first boat will arrive by 2028. A sign date in 2022, will take delivery of the first one by 2029. That is the Navy's own estimate. I will add another three years (at minimum) delay to that --> 2031 or 2032 delivery date of the first boat.

Hard to believe? The first Scorpene (INS Kalvari) was due to arrive in 2012 and arrived only in 2017, a delay of five years. The Project 75I build will be way more complex than the Scorpene Class build. So the IN will wait - at minimum - 10 years for unobtanium i.e. BrahMos VLS cell on P-75I.

And this is assuming from RFI stage (which is where it is now), the MoD gets to contract signing by 2021/2022 - a timeline of 1 to 2 years. Fantastic! Great Going!

How about continuing with the Scorpene build (2 - 3 boats more) and get half a dozen Type 636.3 Kilo Class boats (new build) from Russia? All of which can be delivered before 2030 and will be cheaper than six Project 75I boats. Substitute Project 75I for the six nuclear boats, which is on the design board right now. I guess that would be too much to ask of our MoD! I guess the PLAN will wait for the IN to get the first P75I vessel to engage us in the Indian Ocean.


Heck by the time the first of 75i subs come in all our old Kilos and HDW will be retired or retiring.

Silly me now on second thoughts i welcome any or all old/used/reconditoned/unconditioned/ 'any condition' Kilos of Russia. $300 Million/350 Million? Please take the cheque in advance....

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 12 Aug 2020 05:05

Saar, please do not wish that boondoggle on the Indian Navy.

After the Sindhurakshak and Scorpene episodes, let the submarine arm be smooth sailing ahead.

Heaven only knows in what material state those three used ex-Russian Navy Kilos are. Must the IN go through the Gorshkov episode again?

SNaik Sir had mentioned the names of three possible used Kilos. Wish he was here now to provide more clarity.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 12 Aug 2020 05:53

From Wiki Chacha....why used Kilo boats are a *BAD* idea....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine

The Indonesian Navy was interested in purchasing about 2 Kilo-class submarines. But in 2014, the Chief of Staff of the Indonesian Navy Laksamana Marsetio after a visit to Russia with the team from Indonesian Navy to inspect the said submarines decided to cancel the plans. He said, "The submarines looks good on the outside, but the inside is filled with broken equipment, and the 2 submarines have been in storage for 2 years." Indonesia chose to buy 6 Improved Chang Bogo-class submarines instead including a transfer of technology, where Indonesia will eventually build four of six of the Submarines with South Korea.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 12 Aug 2020 05:58

See the build time of the Type 636.3 Class....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-clas ... 36.3_units

From the above link you can see that the first Type 636.3 boat took four years from keel laying to commissioning. Subsequent Type 636.3 boats are now averaging at 2 - 3 years from keel laying to commissioning. Order six now and the IN can have all six in service before 2030. Otherwise wait till post 2030 - and that is a conservative date stamp - for the first P-75I boat to arrive.

Order another 2 more Scorpenes as well. All eight boats will be cheaper than the Rs 42,000 crore (US $5.6+ billion) that Project 75I is estimated to cost. And that cost is only going to go higher from there. We are only in RFI stage. Good Luck!

I got mithai riding on this.... :mrgreen:


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