Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

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ParGha
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby ParGha » 08 Dec 2017 03:22

Rahul M wrote:ParGha, I am still waiting to know what happened next.


It was supposed to be a catalyst for a collaborative writing exercise (a la PIMS-I style) to engage the mujs flushed out from the GDF. Who knew real world events would catch up to my ball-of-yarn?

I will provide some more runway for the Cerberus H2 program this weekend, but I’m really hoping that the flyboys and fanboys will pick the H2 thread and run with it. H1 is more my area of comfort, and H3 is where India can really deter the Chinese.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby viveks » 08 Dec 2017 13:17

feel so compelled to write about this ... I dont know what to call it....but here goes... this is my first attempt.


Having witnessed the outcome of aggression towards an enemy, the pakistani army chief tells his family member....we have aggressed the lands of kashmir believing that they are one of us, a sacred muslim community who continue to hold and have deep regard for our beliefs in them for the several years post independence that we have given them shelter from the wicked and treacherous hindu culture and religion. That is something foreign, unknown and I classify them as abominable. This has justified my ancestors and leaders to hold fort against their possible wicked transgressions.

However, I believe that our approach in giving them shelter and fighting for them has resulted in the suffering of so many families from our side and theirs. As being assigned a leader and holding an office of leadership representing the highest traditions of valor based on human values in this rapidly changing world, I have been compelled to believe our goal is not to foresee a continuous upper hand against an enemy that has foreign beliefs but to forge an alliance with them for continuous co-existence based on the ethics of peace and prosperity. I am most numb to taking these drastic actions based on what I have seen but I think these will only lead to continuous improvement of my fellow citizens upbringing who strive to better themselves for themselves and a few others in their every way of their life.

I therefore, am compelled to and inclined to forego our occupation of the PoK and invite Indian assistance in doing so. I dont see we have and will ever have a cause in that region without their insight into the development of our social bodies and the kashmir Pok without their valuable assistance.

Reading this letter/dialogue ...the PMO decides that this is start of so many wonderful things. They immediately share this with Ratan Tata, RAW, NIA, IB, Indian Airforce, Indian Navy and last but not least most important...the Indian Army. Leaders of the Indian Army carry the greatest traditions of their ancestors...and decide for a meeting with the Chief of Army staff of Pakistan. Indian intelligence agencies then start going about their work about who they think will be more liberal and objective to this outlook, given their islamic background. A meeting is arranged where the fate of the "Great Union of Kashmir state" is discussed and under whom this state will fall under. Pakistani people in the negotiating table for the first time in their history come out right and say that the document of accessation is the only evidence of a direction under which administration the state should fall under. Their outlook, most indian experts believe is that their continuous occupation injured them as well as their families in the whole process and they would like to see reconciliation for that suffering, and so invite investment that would see better upbringing of their children....presenting them with greater opportunities.

On a beautiful winter morning...some time close to diwali Pakistani military chief declares de-occupation of PoK by bringing down the Pakistani flag in the Gilgit area. His movements and schedule closely shared and monitored by Indian Intelligence agencies...who have put their point defensive teams in position with Pakistani intelligence teams in position. Indian intelligence teams go an an over drive getting inputs from their own assets...and steadily bolstering the Pakistani army general and prime minister.

News breaks loose of the Pakistani action and several media individuals line up for interviews with the Pakistani General and Prime Minister.

Indian PMO, with consultation decides that the Pakistani Chief of Staff General has stepped into something unknown and needs a helping hand from the international community. He decides that the next noble peace prize and initiative should be to the Pakistani General. Kashmiri leaders, who witness this....decide to rename a newly constructed airport terminal after the name of the Pakistani general who decided to give up the ambitions of his fellow ancestor leaders. PM attend and the General attend the inauguration.

The Pakistani general flying into srinagar to inaugurate the new terminal is accompanied by 2 JF-17 fighters from the Pakistani elite protection unit. Indian defense ministry, who thinks this is actually, an "Indian Victory", decides to dispatch 2 LCAs to accompany and escort the general. Pakistani Air force unit directs the LCAs to the frontal halve of the escort, thereby, making Paki JF-17s in the 2 LCAs's 6. Both the LCA pilots, despite being armed with Python 5 missile, coming from north indian origin decide to think that they placing their lives in the hands of an adversary with whom their ancestors and fellow seniors have fought several wars with. They decide to stay objective and remain cool through out the engagement....they are escorted nicely into srinagar airport. This bolsters their new dynamic believe about the adversaries new ethics approach to combat.

As the border gates start to open from the Pakistani side, Indian convey vehicles start to roll into an unknown foreign lands manned by their adversary army. There is an expectable feeling that an adversary soldier would turn against what he has been instructed to him. Surprisingly, indian vehicles seem to get past past certain areas without any hold-up. This helps in bolstering a belief to attentively listen to the adversary soldier and believe in what he tells you to do.

C-130J and C-17 Goblemaster aircraft make landings in the Gilgit and scardu airport, deploying military personal. First to be the Boots on ground reporters, write about the welcoming committee. Locals are guarded about seeing foreign BMP armored personal carriers in their lands and are inquisitive about their intentions. India decides that the MBT Arjun should be shipped to these locations...and so it happens. Bofors guns are also shipped to these locations...as a measure of capitalism defense, when faced with a greater adversary, China, who now has more borders seeing Indian soldiers and ever before.

Once at Gilgit, Indian Army Border team along with senior BSF personal are taken beyond Gilgit to the areas where Indian border come into a zone facing.. Russian, China, Pakistan and Afganistan..in an area of the Hindukush Mountain Ranges. The Northern Light Infantry HQ get new higher personal, who get stationed by the Indian Army. They Indian Army stage a memorial for the troops from this memorial to honor their sacrifice in the Kargil conflicts...who were merely carrying out their orders and working towards their objectives.

Indian Army chief, overseeing this operation, decides to constitute a team of elite personal who would be tasked to get Gen. Musharaf into the country. A court setup to convene at Kargil town was setup to constitute his trial and give due punishment.

India, never sent its elite newly constituted Rafale squadron, the 2 Mirage 2000 squadrons and the 6 Jaguar attack aircraft squadrons into the process of earning control into the unification of Kashmir. Instead, the Mig-29, Mig-21 and LCA squadrons played a major role. Also, the Israeli Green pine radars were moved into northern Kashmir and big boat of sensor suites. These were put in place to check China.

Last, Indian business tycoons...who would only follow Ratan Tatas visions would venture into Pakistan, creating jobs and generating employment opportunities in Pakistan. It is the first time, in his life time, that Ratan Tata vouched and so vociferously led the Indian business campaign into Pakistan....and that region welcomed it with all the necessary infrastructure and environment, thereby creating a foundation for a very strong business and thriving relationship that had witnessed so many down trends in human history.

Thanks....ahaha.

In the years to follow...the Indian railways decide that there should a track all the way up to Gilgit from Baramullah. Also, Border road Organization, along with National Highway authority decide that there must be a road from Gilgit to Leh directly.

Moral of this Kalpinic vision --- we sing with words in a language of medium that holds us dear to give out a message...a message that has no political objectives....a message that portrays the joys of humanity and human co-operation to solve complex disputes that go on for years.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby ParGha » 10 Dec 2017 08:57

The re-armament program under the National Re-Construction Plan (External Security), code-named the Cerberus Program, consisted of three divisions -- H1 focused on the immediate mass-production and deployment of low-complexity armament; H2 focused on medium-term acquisition, indegenization and deployment of intermediate-complexity systems; and H3 focused on immediate- AND long-term special weapons projects.

Despite Raza's best efforts to breakdown the inter-services barriers and force the services to prioritize jointly, each of the three services had come to dominate a division -- army in H1, air-force in H2 and navy in H3. Of course, as a senior IAF officer, Rao knew that there were exceptions -- H1 was churning out the Junglee-Kukkurs by the hundreds for Project JACK, and H3 was on a hypersonic beg/borrow/steal race for Project LONGBOW. But it was H2's LCH-MkV, Spider-Silk, Wolf-Hound and NAICK projects that captured most of IAF attention and budget.

The slightest hint of a brewing Sino-Indian conflict would encourage the French to hike-up the cost of on-going Rafale sustainment and unbalance the negotiations for SNEMCA help on engines for the Networked Aerial Interceptor and Controller (NAICK) project. However if the Chinese SRBM and cruise-missile batteries had a even a moderately powerful counter-measure capable of bringing down the Junglee-Kukkur hunter-killer pack, it would render the whole fleet fit for nothing more than policing the Indus Valley Nature Reserve.

Full implications of an even more powerful jammer pushing back the Wolf-Hound project, designed to replace the depleted MiG-27 and Jaguar fleet, was too terrible to think, and thankfully above Rao's pay-grade. Nevertheless, neither those heavy worries nor the more pedestrian annoyance of a bawling infant two rows down kept the good soldier from catching as much sleep as the flight to London would allow.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Singha » 11 Dec 2017 16:21


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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby k prasad » 20 Dec 2017 17:17

Question from a few posts ago, Vivek

vivek_ahuja wrote:...However, if something of interest came up, they would then attempt to move to the “spot” mode and try to capture a high-resolution “snap” of the small region of interest. If they couldn’t do this with the aircraft maintaining an orthogonal heading, Nair would call up the flight-crew and they would break pattern for a more direct vector towards the “spot” and then “snap” it...


Do you mean that spotlight mode doesn't work as well when the aircraft flight vector perpendicular to the direction that the target 'spot' is in? Because my understanding is that its better when the target is broadside rather than forward looking.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Khalsa » 13 Mar 2019 15:37

I am kicking this back to the top ... Vivek where are you ?
Admins can you DM or email him ....

Vivek, would love to know the status of the third book.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 15 Mar 2019 11:11

Khalsa-saar: Thanks for kicking this to the top.

These post-Balakot days are interesting times where the scenarios of this thread are superseded by the events of the real world! Gone are the days of authors like myself writing cathartic military scenarios in the reign of spineless national leaders. Now we have a true leader and the real world military operations are utterly fascinating.

Since Modi came to power, I had paused my scenario writing, since all the underlying assumptions have changed fundamentally. The gaming equations have changed as well. My third scenario that dealt with the next round with China is paused, and will probably need a revision to keep current events behind it. 150+ pages of writing that has been rendered useless by Modi! :D

Brave new world out there in the Indian subcontinent!

In light of this, does this thread still serve a purpose? What can we write here that won't get overtaken by real news a day later? :twisted:

I will probably write a different scenario if there is interest here. Something that soaks in the new reality, perhaps?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Kashi » 15 Mar 2019 11:15

vivek_ahuja wrote:I will probably write a different scenario if there is interest here. Something that soaks in the new reality, perhaps?


Interest is sky-high sir!! :D

Missed your writings here.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby nachiket » 15 Mar 2019 13:36

Ahuja saar is alive! :D

Vivek there is always plenty of appetite at BR for your scenarios. So please do carry on. And I don't believe there is a need for you to rewrite your scenarios because of the changing political situation. Because it can easily change back to the way things were in the bad old days too depending on how the elections go, whether it is this one or the next. Your scenarios can remain in their own world and will be interesting regardless.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Khalsa » 15 Mar 2019 16:43

vivek_ahuja wrote:Khalsa-saar: Thanks for kicking this to the top.


My dearest Vivek

first of all the heart swells with happiness at your return my good friend.
Man I feel like his brother has returned from border ha ha ha.

I agree its a difference 5 years in the sub-continent however I would like you to continue because
1. Your third scenario is in context of China and not much has changed there. We still largely fail to anticipate the chinese moves. They feed us mithai one day and slap another day. Their overwhelming use of power disguises the frailty of their individual soldier as the mega Ninja warrior and we continue to avoid looking the dragon with bloody eyes.
2. You must finish what you started
3. I am about to Fenix (yes I know I know life intervened in my life as well and twitter and BRF is like drugs)
4. There is lot to learn about the detailed nature of writing.

I would urge you to continue with that scenario and if you still think no, then lets have another scenario that revolves around calling the Pak Nuclear Bluff.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby jamwal » 15 Mar 2019 23:38

vivek_ahuja wrote:Khalsa-saar: Thanks for kicking this to the top.

These post-Balakot days are interesting times where the scenarios of this thread are superseded by the events of the real world! Gone are the days of authors like myself writing cathartic military scenarios in the reign of spineless national leaders. Now we have a true leader and the real world military operations are utterly fascinating.

Since Modi came to power, I had paused my scenario writing, since all the underlying assumptions have changed fundamentally. The gaming equations have changed as well. My third scenario that dealt with the next round with China is paused, and will probably need a revision to keep current events behind it. 150+ pages of writing that has been rendered useless by Modi! :D

Brave new world out there in the Indian subcontinent!

In light of this, does this thread still serve a purpose? What can we write here that won't get overtaken by real news a day later? :twisted:

I will probably write a different scenario if there is interest here. Something that soaks in the new reality, perhaps?

Nice to see you back.
If you've already written so much, then it's better to finish and publish it. Almost everyone who read your previous books will buy those too. It's supposed to be realistic fiction, not prediction.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby BajKhedawal » 16 Mar 2019 00:05

vivek_ahuja wrote:.......

I will probably write a different scenario if there is interest here. Something that soaks in the new reality, perhaps?


Go for it Vivek, would love to read how you do justice to our awesome military backed by political lions (MAD).

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Ankit Desai » 16 Mar 2019 06:00

vivek_ahuja wrote:......
I will probably write a different scenario if there is interest here. Something that soaks in the new reality, perhaps?


Lots of interest sir.

-Ankit

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2019 12:26

vivek_ahuja wrote:
Since Modi came to power, I had paused my scenario writing, since all the underlying assumptions have changed fundamentally. The gaming equations have changed as well. My third scenario that dealt with the next round with China is paused, and will probably need a revision to keep current events behind it. 150+ pages of writing that has been rendered useless by Modi! :D
...
Something that soaks in the new reality, perhaps?


Doklam was so close. It would have been an overwhelming victory for us of it had kicked off, Vivek ji.

Please write what could have been. At the time of Doklam we had 10 divisions and 250K men to their three brigades (around 7K each.) And the PLAAF had only 8 fighters on the plateau at the time. (Only 32 most recently.)

https://theprint.in/opinion/china-doklam-buildup-bhutan-india-cannot-protect-you/39851

Do we just take back Aksai Chin and stop at defensible positions near the LOC or do we roll across the plains of Tibet to liberate Lhasa?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby nits » 18 Mar 2019 12:59

There was a scenario posted some months /year back where a IAF Tansport aircraft was going to UAE on mission and was intercepted by US F-16's which were from Carrier task force...

need link or name of that thread; i tried searching for almost a hour but was not able to find

Gurus / Mods - please help

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 18 Mar 2019 13:30

vivek_ahuja wrote:Khalsa-saar: Thanks for kicking this to the top.

These post-Balakot days are interesting times where the scenarios of this thread are superseded by the events of the real world! Gone are the days of authors like myself writing cathartic military scenarios in the reign of spineless national leaders. Now we have a true leader and the real world military operations are utterly fascinating.

Since Modi came to power, I had paused my scenario writing, since all the underlying assumptions have changed fundamentally. The gaming equations have changed as well. My third scenario that dealt with the next round with China is paused, and will probably need a revision to keep current events behind it. 150+ pages of writing that has been rendered useless by Modi! :D

Brave new world out there in the Indian subcontinent!

In light of this, does this thread still serve a purpose? What can we write here that won't get overtaken by real news a day later? :twisted:

I will probably write a different scenario if there is interest here. Something that soaks in the new reality, perhaps?


Vivek, great to have you back. I had thought that the goat-herders and Lizard-people had kidnapped you.

Understand the fast changing scenario's but then would be good to stretch the boundary. Who knows maybe the powers that be read your books for inspiration. Also, your books do great public service in helping ordinary junta get a perspective on life, creating a future batch of potential BRFites.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Dileep » 18 Mar 2019 13:53

The thread is lost in the 'great BRF crash'. But the ebook is available here: https://sites.google.com/site/brfspystories/files/The%20Cyst.pdf?attredirects=0&d=1

The main page with links to all my stories: https://sites.google.com/site/brfspystories/home

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Yagnasri » 18 Mar 2019 15:00

First Lungi dance, Lungi dance and more Lungi dance.

Vivekji, Happy to see you once again. After eeeevil mods closed political thread, BRF got limited to security and other all other kinds of geeks. :(( Mangos like myself are only limited to reading those geeks and improve our knowledge.

Now that you are back we are happy that some much needed josh is back in the site. Oooops - Eeevil Modi made that Josh work also political. :D

One humble request - Please don't discard the 150 pages you have already written. You can continue and it can be one book and there can be another one based on the present reality. As you know there are all sorts of stories and they all can live in the same timeline.

People whom I have suggested you books are already asking for the third part. So time to make us addicts once again. :mrgreen:

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby RKumar » 18 Mar 2019 15:14

Thanks Dileep for posting the pdf's and (I wish) if possible that vivek can also do the same.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby nits » 18 Mar 2019 20:28

Dileep wrote:The thread is lost in the 'great BRF crash'. But the ebook is available here: https://sites.google.com/site/brfspystories/files/The%20Cyst.pdf?attredirects=0&d=1

The main page with links to all my stories: https://sites.google.com/site/brfspystories/home


Thanks a lot; that made my day :D

Vivek / Dileep - BRF has lot of appetite and fan following for your scenarios; keep them coming please

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby BajKhedawal » 19 Mar 2019 20:33

Dileep wrote:The thread is lost in the 'great BRF crash'. But the ebook is available here: https://sites.google.com/site/brfspystories/files/The%20Cyst.pdf?attredirects=0&d=1

The main page with links to all my stories: https://sites.google.com/site/brfspystories/home


Thanks

Didnt you also write a historical spy story dating back couple of centuries? any links to that one?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Dileep » 20 Mar 2019 07:00

BajKhedawal wrote:
Dileep wrote:The thread is lost in the 'great BRF crash'. But the ebook is available here: https://sites.google.com/site/brfspystories/files/The%20Cyst.pdf?attredirects=0&d=1

The main page with links to all my stories: https://sites.google.com/site/brfspystories/home


Thanks

Didnt you also write a historical spy story dating back couple of centuries? any links to that one?


Available on the same page: Mirror to the Past

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Deans » 20 Mar 2019 20:14

I've just written my first book - in a similar genre as Vivek ji (see my separate thread). I've been a big fan and Vivek's work was one of the reasons I was inspired to quit my day job and do the things I've always wanted to. Good to see him back on BRF !

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby salaam » 20 Mar 2019 22:18

Deans wrote:I've just written my first book - in a similar genre as Vivek ji (see my separate thread). I've been a big fan and Vivek's work was one of the reasons I was inspired to quit my day job and do the things I've always wanted to. Good to see him back on BRF !


Congratulations on opting out of the rat race.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 20 Mar 2019 23:01

Deans wrote:I've just written my first book - in a similar genre as Vivek ji (see my separate thread). I've been a big fan and Vivek's work was one of the reasons I was inspired to quit my day job and do the things I've always wanted to. Good to see him back on BRF !


:shock:

Well then! The work done here has had real world impact. Hopefully in a good way too. All the best on your endeavour, Dean! I would love to read your book when it rolls out. Do send me a link to it.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 20 Mar 2019 23:06

chola wrote:Doklam was so close. It would have been an overwhelming victory for us of it had kicked off, Vivek ji.

Please write what could have been. At the time of Doklam we had 10 divisions and 250K men to their three brigades (around 7K each.) And the PLAAF had only 8 fighters on the plateau at the time. (Only 32 most recently.)

Do we just take back Aksai Chin and stop at defensible positions near the LOC or do we roll across the plains of Tibet to liberate Lhasa?


Right. Doklam is as close as we got to a shooting war with the Chinese. In recent years, I have come to the conclusion that there is no will to fight a serious war in Beijing. They are going to be (already are) an economic superpower where making money (and associated politics) is the only thing that matters to them. I doubt New Delhi has serious stomach to go proactively triggering a war either (Chimera scenario notwithstanding! :wink: ).

***

The Pakis, on the other hand, are far more emotionally volatile, irrational and armed to the teeth. Plus they are nearly bankrupt, have no scope for economic successes in the future and are fast running out of resources as their population booms. Expect a fight with the bearded goat-herders.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 20 Mar 2019 23:09

Khalsa wrote:I would urge you to continue with that scenario and if you still think no, then lets have another scenario that revolves around calling the Pak Nuclear Bluff.


I think there is much to be said for the scenario that I was pursuing with Cerberus. Since its already 150+ pages in, lets take it further to its original plan. I am dusting off the pages of this work this week, and picking up my notes to see where I left off. Hopefully I should be able to get started in a few days.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Khalsa » 21 Mar 2019 12:57

vivek_ahuja wrote:
Khalsa wrote:I would urge you to continue with that scenario and if you still think no, then lets have another scenario that revolves around calling the Pak Nuclear Bluff.


I think there is much to be said for the scenario that I was pursuing with Cerberus. Since its already 150+ pages in, lets take it further to its original plan. I am dusting off the pages of this work this week, and picking up my notes to see where I left off. Hopefully I should be able to get started in a few days.


Excellent sir. So good to have you back.

Guys (I mean newcomers only), by the way Vivek blogs at http://thebetacoefficient.blogspot.com/
He has done yeoman's work by doing extensive comparative based data analysis of many platforms that have been used as just basis of extensive discussions here at BR... and to be honest, I have seen them percolat to some uber self declared defence analysts.

Do check it out, read , review and promote.


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