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Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 18 Oct 2016 11:15

Image

──── PROLOGUE ────

The bump on the road caused her to look up from her notes. The camouflaged faces of the soldiers sitting across from here were focused entirely on her. They didn’t say anything, of course. But the stared at her nonetheless. Apart from the intermittent radio communications that broke the monotony, the only other sound was the rumble and whine of the vehicle.

Ling ignored the stares and went back to her notes and maps. She had reviewed the numbers a dozen times, and they were always the same. There must be a solution to this problem somwhere. There had to be!

One of the soldiers sitting across from her removed his water bottle and unscrewed the top before taking a gulp. He then screwed the top back on and stowed it away. Ling stared at the soldier and then looked past him; past the metal wall of the armored personnel carrier and well past the dusty mountains beyond.

Water.

When available in quantity, it was the catalyst for the birth of human civilizations since millenia. Proud human civilizations had been built on the fundamental essence of water. Man’s hubris allowed him to think that the civilizations were his doing. All the accumulation of knowledge, culture, art and wars was built at some level on the presence of water. Whether it was ships that made their way to the far corners of the earth or the agriculture that fed the populace and allowed the luxury of art and culture. Water. It was behind it all. And when it dissipated away?

Proud armies and warriors simply fell on their knees for the lack of water. Civilizations crumbled. Art and culture dissipated and gave way to anarchy and the reduction of humanity back to the beasts...

A voice yelled at her from above the rumble of the vehicle: “lost in your thoughts again?!”

Ling looked up from her notes and saw Professor Honghui smiling at her from the seat to her left. Ling returned the smile. “Just reviewing the numbers again, sir!” Ling shouted back as the engine whine kept pace with her volume. “Perhaps we missed something!”

Honghui shook his head in dismissal: “No, you haven’t missed anything. The numbers are true. And you know they are true. You just don’t like where they lead us!”

Ling stared at Honghui and said nothing. Honghui had known Ling for a many years both as a graduate student and as a fellow academic at Beijing University. A man of fifty-three years, Honghui was the leading Chinese expert on Hydrology and had spent many years working for the Chinese government on the placement and impact analysis of hydroelectric projects across mainland China. In the last decade, he had spent his a vast majority of his research work in the Tibet Autonomous Region, or TAR, at the behest of Beijing. The latter had provided him plenty resources, both financial and logistical, to conduct strategic studies on what was now the most valuable resource of the twenty-first century...

“Don’t worry too much, Ling!” Honghui added reassuringly. “There is a solution yet! There always is! Once we get back to Lhasa, we will review the numbers toge...!”

The APC braked abruptly. Everyone inside the transport was jerked to one side by the inertia. Ling managed to catch her notes just before they slipped away from her lap. Honghui recovered his grip while holding the handle on the sideall above and behind his headrest.
He cursed beneath his breath.

“What now?!”

The radio communications from the driving compartment and the vehicle commander broke the silence over the cabin speakers: “Squad dismount!”
The soldiers sitting next to Honghui and Ling instantly got to work, grabbing their rifles and equipment. The soldier directly next to the two doors in the back of the vehicle unlocked and pushed them open. The cold evening wind swept through the cabin, causing the two civilians to shudder and reach for their jackets. Ling saw the dark blue skies outside and the bright floodlights of the vehicles in their convoy as soldiers began spreading out. A cacophony noises from a crowd of people and of orders and responses from the soldiers filled the air above the droning rumble of the idling vehicle engines.

As Ling watched in silence, Honghui unbuckled himself and moved over to the seat opposite her, immediately next to the entrance doors. He began stretching his head to either corner of the doors for a better glance of the situation...

“Now just what do you suppose that...”

“Halt!” A cold voice yelled at the old professor. “Get back inside the vehicle!” Honghui and Ling saw a young PLA Lieutenant walk up to them to block the view. Honghui was not easily intimidated by the soldiers. After all these years in Tibet, he had seen a great many things. Including a vicious rebellion by the ethnic Tibetans as well as a full-scale war with the Indians earlier in the decade.

“Listen, boy!” He shouted hoarsely, “I demand to know what is going on! Why have we stopped?”

The PLA Lieutenant was not accustomed to having his orders questioned. He scowled and began pushing Honghui by his shoulders back into the cabin.
Hey! Hey!” Ling shouted in defense of her colleague and leapt forward, dropping her notes and other papers. “Get your hands off! Who do you think you are?! Do you not know who this man is?! General Donghai will get a personal report on this misbehavior! What’s your name and unit?”

“General Donghai? I...well...” the young officer stumbled, not knowing whether the threat was a bluff or not. “this is for your own safety! I am under orders!”

“That’s not what I asked! I asked you your name and unit!” Ling demanded again as she swept the young man’s arm off of Honghui. This wasn’t the first time she and Honghui had had to use the General’s name to get some respect from the rank and file men of the PLA garrisons in Tibet.

“Just stay here!” the lieutenant continued in a much more subdued voice.

“Do you honestly think that I...” Ling’s sentence was cut short by a two quick bursts of rifle fire that cracked through the air. The cacophony of noises from the crowd turned to shrieks and yells and the sounds of a stampede. She let go of the young lieutenant’s arm and pushed herself up using the doors of the vehicle until her head was above the roof of the APC.

Chaos was everywhere. They were just outside the town of Xigaze, about one-hundred and fifty kilometers west of Lhasa. The town was lit up with lights against the black-blue skies above and bounded by the silhouettes of the massive Himalayan mountains all around. But more directly in front of her, she saw the rear ends of the two other ZBD09 wheeled armored vehicles with their floodlights on and soldiers armed with rifles on the ground next to the vehicles. Massive crowds of people were running past the vehicles. Ling thought she saw some shops on fire and riot police moving into action with their shields...

“Get back down!” A PLA army captain leapt up behind Ling, grabbed her diminutive form by both arms, manhandled her below the roof and pushed her back into her former seat. Before she could say a word, he slammed the doors closed on her and Honghui.

“So what is going on out there?” Honghui asked as Ling recovered from her abrupt return to the confines of her seat.
“Another water riot,” she answered matter-of-fact.
“Tibetans?”
“Probably, professor.” Ling said as she picked up her papers and pens from the floor of the vehicle. “Who else could it be?”

Honghui sighed and nodded agreement. Drinking water had become increasing scarce in the high-altitude desert regions of Tibet. There might have been enough water at one time for the ethnic Tibetans, but with the mass forced-migration of Han Chinese populations into Tibet, that was no longer the case. The massive artificial growth of the human population in the Tibetan mountains had rendered local water resources a preimium resource, both for drinking as well as for irrigation and power. And while the latter could be offset by the construction of nuclear power plants, you could not make up water in the desert by sheer willpower. And climate change had not helped. The increase in global temperatures in recent years was drying up the Tibetan landscape. Water now had to be resourced and distrbuted under guard, especially in the summer months of each year...

And that distribution never reached the actual inhabitants of the lands: the Tibetans. In a most agonising and tragic irony, the Tibetans were now dying of thirst in their own lands, while the mainland Chinese diverted the scarce water resources. Beijing was determined to extinguish the Tibetan culture. Wittingly or unwittingly, it was achieving its aim in the most brutal way possible.

“We have to do these things,” Honghui said apologetically, more to himself than to Ling. “We have our own countrymen to feed first. There just isn’t enough water to go around for everyone. But the misery of these people here breaks my heart.”

“Worse is yet to come professor,” Ling responded as more rifle shots and increased shrieks of hundreds of people filled the air outside. “And then, as now, we must do what we must to ensure that China is not deprived of something as essential as drinking water!”

“Even at the cost of other cultures and civilizations, Ling?” Honghui asked academically.

“Of course, professor!” Ling answered in surprise, as though the answer was so obvious. “this is the Chinese millenia! If history teaches us anything, weaker cultures have to step aside for a new power to rise in its place. And each new power needs resources. The last century was defined by oil. This one will be defined by drinking water. And we must control it wherever it exists! There is no other choice.”

“Of course,” Honghui said as he rubbed his tired eyes. He knew better than to argue against his idealistic former student. This was the generation that grew up on Chinese power and economic growth, he reminded himself. They will not be deprived. Ling was energetic and driven, typical of the new youth in China. She was intelligent and competant and drove that towards her research work in hydrology. Perhaps she really was the person to take over what needed to be done in the near future, Honghui thought as he rested his head back on the padded headrest of the seat and closed his eyes.

Honghui knew what the future held. And when they presented their results to General Donghai and the Tibet Hydrology and Water Resources Department in Lhasa, this misery would eventually and inevitably spread to hundreds of millions of people outside of China’s borders. With so many lives to be sacrificed for the sake of China’s citizens, perhaps fatalistic idealism really was the only characteristic that would give its carries the iron will to do what must be done.

And Dr. Ling Qi was clearly suited for that role.
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 19 Oct 2016 07:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Ajit.C » 18 Oct 2016 15:40

Welcome back Vivek!!!! :D :D :D

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby sarang » 18 Oct 2016 16:00

Lets start it, Vivek ji.

Welcome,

again.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby asinh » 18 Oct 2016 18:22

Awesome start.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby dipak » 18 Oct 2016 18:55

Welcome back, Vivek ...so nice to see you here, again!

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby sarabpal.s » 18 Oct 2016 19:56

Welcome ji :wink:

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby jahaju » 18 Oct 2016 20:20

Welcome backji.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby asbchakri » 18 Oct 2016 20:44

Welcome back Sirjii :D :D

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby GShankar » 18 Oct 2016 21:14

Vivek, I have both your books. Can't wait for the next one.

Question - do you think may be there should be an update or prequel for your 2nd book based on the unfolding events?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby hpatel » 19 Oct 2016 07:41

Have been waiting a long time .
When do you expect to publish the book?
:-)

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 19 Oct 2016 07:49

GShankar wrote:Question - do you think may be there should be an update or prequel for your 2nd book based on the unfolding events?


I am not sure I understand the question. Prequel for Fenix?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 19 Oct 2016 07:50

hpatel wrote:Have been waiting a long time .
When do you expect to publish the book?
:-)


Cerberus will be an open book like Chimera and Fenix was. BRF gets first look at it here on the forum pages. Then the final polished publication copy comes out. I am planning to push Cerberus into publication at the end of December 2016.

-Vivek

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 19 Oct 2016 07:57

Image

Wencang put the folder on the table and handed it back to the bureaucrat in the suit. He then walked back to where Chen was seated, sipping his tea.
“How many dead?” Chen asked as he leaned back in his chair.

“Fifteen. More or less.” Wencang grumbled and picked up a pack of cigarettes laying on the tea table. He lit it and pulled a strong puff, watching the bright sun already tilting towards the Mongolian landscape to their west.

“And more riots?” Chen asked without getting up. He received a grunt for an answer. “Donghai will handle it.”

A thunder ripped through the peaceful officer’s mess as a J-20 stealth fighter-bomber streaked across the blue skies above. The glass panes vibrated. Both men looked up instinctively as the silhouette of the aircraft disappeared towards the open desert ranges west of the airbase.

“Not what we flew decades ago!” Chen observed as a wave of nostalgia passed through the two men.
“Not at all!” Wencang agreed and then turned to face his old colleague: “have you seen the cockpits on these new jets? So many electronics and gadgets! I was struggling to keep pace with the acronyms Colonel Tao was using yesterday in his briefing!”

Chen chuckled and nodded: “just be glad they still have a flying stick in the cockpit. The new drones are doing away with even that remnant of the old days!”

Yet another grumble from the old General as he ruffled his white hairs. “Well,” Wencang added finally, “we need to leave that to the boys and go do what we are good at. By the way,” he pointed towards the folders in the hands of the bureaucrat standing further away, “I do need a resolution on this nonsense in Tibet. That place has been a thorn on our side for decades! And we still can’t resolve it! Now they are rioting over water. I want solutions. Preferably long term ones!”

Chen nodded: “I agree. Donghai is supposed to be meeting with some of the experts on water resources in Lhasa, and the folks from the interior ministry and energy departments,” he turned to look at his wrist watch and then back at Wencang, “in a few hours. He promises me that he will get us a on-the-ground status as soon as he has it.”

“And also the military status,” Wencang ordered.
“Of course,” Chen continued. “The riot...”

“Not just the riots.” Wencang interjected, “I mean the Indians too. This drought has hit them particularly hard as well, based on everything we hear. Plus the massive jolt they received in their quarrel with the Pakistanis has left them on their knees. I want to know what their status is on the border. I intend to take care of our Tibetan problem once and for all, but I want to know if the Indians will intervene or not.”

Chen thought silently but nodded as he lit up his own cigarette: “water. This is all going to be about water. Us. The Indians. Tibetans. Everything. The water-resources people told me last week that they have been reviewing the hydrological data for western China as a whole, including Tibet, and its all going dry over the next few years. And if the western borders are hit with a massive drought...”

“The Uighurs will start revolting next,” Wencang finished the thought. “And those damn Islamists over there will make the Tibetan revolt look like a schoolyard quarrel! What solutions did these experts have in mind?”

Chen raised and eyebrow and shook his head: “massive engineering projects. Lots of money. Lots of manpower. They are talking about diverting entire rivers! I told them they were insane.”

“That’s because they are!” Wencang added in bewilderment. “Where is the money going to come for all this?! Chen, are we absolutely sure about the competency of these experts?”

“Yes.” That answer left no room for doubt, so Chen continued after a few more seconds: “it is doable, Wencang. This is not magic. It is simply an engineering problem. In fact, we have done so in recent years on a number of internal waterways on the mainland.”

But...” Wencang egged on, expecting that to be in there someplace...
But,” Chen continued in a serious tone, “the waters of Tibet are not ours alone to do as we wish! They cross borders into many countries.”
“Like India, for example.” Wencang added and then looked at the dissipating cigarette in his fingers. “So?”

That caught Chen by surprise. He turned in his seat to face his commander: “So, the Indians might not be very happy that we are taking their water away. It might dry up the entire northeastern region of their country, devastate Bangladesh and Myanmar in the process as well. Hundreds of millions of people will be affected.”

“That’s not our problem,” Chen stated flatly and dismissed the thought entirely. He pointed downwards with his cigarette-holding fingers, jabbing the empty space for emphasis: “these rivers, originate in our lands. Here. In China. Not these other countries. We have first and foremost right on this water. Our people come first. Our population out there,” he gestured outside the window of the room towards the city of Urumqi, “are thirsty and want reassurances from their government –us– that they will have drinking water in the years to come. And we can’t fail them. Everyone else can go to hell. China first.”

He walked over to quash the remains of his cigarette butt into the ashtray.

“China first.”
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 19 Oct 2016 08:01, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 19 Oct 2016 08:00

Image
"They are denying our people the most essential ingredient of life, sir. We beg you to intervene!”

The desperate plea of the Tibetan government in exile was hard to dismiss. Ravoof listened silently as the ambassador handed him a written version of what he had just said. Ravoof took it silently and glanced at its contents. The room was silent as he did this. Finally he looked up from the document and sighed.

“Sir, I need to give this some thought, but this document here asks the Indian Government to lodge a stern protest with Beijing on their practices regarding water resources in Tibet.” Ravoof shook his head in dismissal. “Come now, sir. We can make the protest. We can make a hundred protests. But what will come off it? When has anything ever come off via diplomacy with Beijing? Haven’t we learnt that already after all these years?”

The Tibetan ambassador listened in silence.

“So you agree.” Ravoof concluded. “Good. I am relieved to see that, just like us, our Tibetan friends have grown out of the naivete on dealing with Beijing.” Ravoof looked across the room and shared quick glance with brigadier-general (retired) Ansari, the current National Security Advisor in Ravoof’s cabinet. Ansari maintained a stoic face, not letting any emotion slip by. Ravoof turned to face the Tibetans in his office: “So why don’t we save some time and have you tell us what it is you really want from us?”

“Off the record?” The Ambassador asked.
“Off the record.” Ravoof agreed and then leaned back into his chair. This ought to be good!

The Tibetan officials shared numerous looks and nods. The ambassador reluctanntly looked back at the Indian Prime Minister: “Dr. Ravoof, we are well aware of the tribulations that this country has undergone in the past decade. Both on our behalf and on account of the despicable actions of the Pakistanis. We are, of course, your most humble guests and we thank you for the hospitality over the decades. But the Tibet issue remains unsolved. Beijing still rules our lands with an iron fist, causing famine and drought across the once fertile valleys. There are many amongst our people who feel that with these latest actions of the past few months, we are rapidly approaching the threshold beyond which Beijing will finally eliminate the Tibetans from their own lands once and for all. The Han Chinese will replace the Tibetans.”

“Our people will not sit idly by, Mr. Prime Minister!” one of the other Tibetan officials blurted out in frustration. The ambassador shot him a withering glance that caused the man to melt back into his seats.

Ravoof nodded in agreement and then leaned forward to face the younger Tibetan official who had blurted what was in his heart: “and so your people will fight, won’t they?”

The Tibetan official stared at Ravoof in silence and then stole a glance from the ambassador, who was staring him down. He nodded as he looked to the floor.

“Understandable.” Ravoof concluded and looked at Ansari across the room, who added: “that’s what I would do if I had to face a death from thirst and starvation.”

The ambassador pointed towards the young man in his entourage and then turned to Ravoof: “And this young man’s beliefs are not his alone! There are many others who wish to fight for their land and culture. And if this continues, they will.”
“Are you asking for our assistance in this fight?” Ansari asked from where he sat.

The ambassador turned to face him: “assistance is perhaps too much to ask, but will you actively resist us?”
Ansari smiled but did not answer, instead staring back at Ravoof, who finished the thought: “ambassador, I think we understand your concerns. My office will be in touch with some actions soon.”

The ambassador took the cue and stood up from his seat, followed by the Indian officials as well. He bowed to Ravoof: “we look forward to your thoughts, sir.”


As the officials piled out a minute later, Ravoof waved for Ansari to hang back. Ansari in turn made sure to close the door behind him as the last of the officials walked out. Silence returned to the room.

“Well, that was a free-forming discussion!” Ansari said as Ravoof smiled back: “Can you blame them?”

“Not really,” Ansari agreed. “Their entire culture is being decimated by the Chinese. Their people are dying of thirst and the rivers are drying up. Not a happy future up ahead for them. Violence might not help, but it will certainly be understandable if they looked to it.”

“And some already are!” Ravoof stated as he thought about the briefings on the mass riots in the villages and towns of Tibet. “What did you think about their request?”

“For assistance? Rubbish! Our own country is on the knees right now from the fallout of the Pak war. One more war will finish us off!”
Ravoof nodded thoughtfully: “we certainly do need the time to recover, don’t we? Between our own cities just beginning to finally recover, this severe drought that just won’t stop and the Pakistani wasteland falling more and more into the hands of roving bands of jihadists, we have our hands full in the neighborhood. And the same appears to be true about Beijing as well, doesn’t it?”

“Climate change is killing us all equally,” Ansari muttered. “Mother nature doesn’t differentiate between Shia, Sunni, Hindu, Han or Tibetan. It will kill us all without mercy!” He smiled cruelly.

“Nice to see you in a good mood,” Ravoof said. “We need to lodge the complaint with Beijing on behalf of the Tibetans. Useless effort, but we have to take care of it. Wencang will get a good laugh from it, I bet.”

Ravoof glanced again at the document handed to him by the Tibetans and tossed it back on to the desk before leaning back. He tilted his head to face Ansari: “If this Tibetan revolt for water fans into something else, what will he do?”

“Wencang?”
“Yes. Is there any risk of Beijing repeating their actions under Wencang as they did when Peng was in charge?”

“Unlikely,” Ansari pondered. “Wencang is in a different class than Peng. A disciplined military commander in his day. He was also smart enough to stay out of the scum that is Pak lands today. No. I think his focus will remain on China for the time being. He will want to make sure that his population is happy. That they have enough water to drink and grow food on. I can’t see why that focus would change even if the Tibetan revolt expands. Their pitbull, General Donghai, is on the ground over there in Lhasa. He’s been sent there by Beijing to bring the revolts under control. And the Tibetans are struggling. They are on their last gasps and that bulldog Donghai will finish them off.

They won’t bother with us this time around.”

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby jamwal » 19 Oct 2016 10:42

Nice to see same people, in different roles

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby sudhan » 19 Oct 2016 13:17

Vivek ji, What is the time line for Cerberus compared to Fenix? Also could you give an overview of the fall out from the previous war and how Bharat and its citizens are coping with it?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby zoverian » 19 Oct 2016 14:23

is the book already out....please keep me posted with the link to purchase...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 21 Oct 2016 11:06

sudhan wrote:Vivek ji, What is the time line for Cerberus compared to Fenix? Also could you give an overview of the fall out from the previous war and how Bharat and its citizens are coping with it?


Cerberus is generally set a few years downstream of the Fenix timeline.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 21 Oct 2016 11:07

zoverian wrote:is the book already out....please keep me posted with the link to purchase...


Cerberus is not out yet. It will be out in end of December 2016.

Chimera and Fenix are already available for purchase.

-Vivek

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 21 Oct 2016 11:10

Image

The soldier returned to hand Ling her ID back and waved her on with a smile. She smiled back and accelerated her car off the gravel and through the now-open gate to the camp.

“Third checkpost today,” Honghui observed from the passenger’s seat next to her. “They are getting more paranoid with each passing day.”
“Can you blame them, professor?” Ling replied without taking her eyes off the gravel path. They passed by rows of parked ZBD09 wheeled armored personnel carriers and a even a few of the shiny-new Type-99A2 tanks in their splinter mountain camouflage. Hundreds of soldiers were moving about, servicing the vehicles or marching in formation past the barracks. A sign on the gravel road pointed to where Ling and Honghai were headed...

“The good general is well protected!” Ling observed as they passed around some parked trucks. “Ah, there we are.”

She parked the car near the entrace to a main building that bore the look of a military headquarters. Dozens of bright-red Chinese flags were fluttering against the white paint of the building. Officers were moving to and fro from its various entrances. Ling grabbed her files and papers and so did Honghui. They stepped out just as a Harbin Z-9 utility helicopter buzzed overhead, flaring for a landing somwhere nearby. Its escorts, a pair of Z-19 light-attack helicopters, circled the far side of the base...

“Looks like we are just in time,” Honghui noted as he put on his black coat. “Donghai doesn’t like to be kept waiting. Lead on, Ling!”

The two researchers briskly walked past the various people in the corridors of the building. It seemed that everyone had received a new jolt of energy after hearing the noise of the helicopters. So Donghai was indeed here. After a few pointers and directions, they were welcomed by the head of the Tibet Hydrology and Water Resources department, Dr. Wen.

Wen waved the rest of his group into the conference room and shook Honghui’s hand as he and Ling walked up: “I heard about the unfortunate incident with that young army officer last week. It was most...”

“Please,” Honghui cut Wen off with a smile. “No harm was done. Don’t give it another thought.”
“Well,” Wen offered, “that was an unfortunate event nonetheless. These riots over water have been spreading rapidly in the last few weeks. People are getting desperate, and the summer hasn’t even reached its peak!” Wen shook his head and then waved Honghui and Ling into the conference room: “the general offers his apologies for not having met us last week. As you can imagine, these riots are keeping him and his officers very busy. But he should be here any minute. What have you and Ling found? How bad is it?”

Honghui just raised his eyebrows and looked Ling, who shared a look with the two men.
“That bad?” Wen concluded and sighed.

“What is the general’s mood like?” Ling asked.

Wen’s face took a serious tone: “he’s looking for answers. As we all are! But he is under a lot of pressure to get this situation under control. So expect him to cut deep into the issues and look for sore solutions. I...”

The chatter in the room gave way to silence as General Donghai walked in along with his other commanders and field officers. The other uniformed men in the room instantly stood up in attention. Donghai waved them to sit. As everyone took their seats, the doors to the room closed. This was the first time Ling had met the man in charge of all of Tibet’s affairs. She knew he reported directly to the main party committee and to General Wencang and Chen. The reputation of Donghai as a bulldog preceded him, and looking at his short stubby features and grisly looks, Ling felt she knew why he had received that moniker. That caused her to smile inwardly. But she also knew that Donghai was no fool. The man was battle-hardened. He had commanded the overall task force that had entered Bhutan during the war with India. He was one of planners and proponents of the deep-strike into Bhutan to cut off the Indian northeast. And he and his men had almost succeeded. He had managed to survive that war despite three separate Indian airstrikes against his command posts and a strafing run from a Indian aircraft that had left him with nasty scars on his neck and shoulders as well as a limp. So now he walked with a stick to his side. But he had survived. Not many on his staff had managed the same...

Donghai took the seat at the head of the long table in the room and instantly got to business: “all right. You wanted to meet me, so here I am. Make this quick.”

The civilians at the table looked at Wen, who exhaled as he collected his thoughts and continued: “as tasked by Beijing, we have recently concluded our hydrological surveys of the Tibet region. Dr. Honghui and Dr. Qi here have prepared reports on the short term and long term consequences of the rapid climate change in the Himalayan mountain chains. I have forwarded the reports to your staff here as well as the Water Resources Department in...”

“I know about the reports,” Donghai interrupted. “Give me direct answers to my direct questions.” He leaned forward and rolled out one finger from his fist: “one, do we have enough water for this year?”

“Perhaps,” Wen responded.
“What are the probabilities?” Donghai asked.
“Hard to say. It depends on a lot of parameters.”
“Take a guess,” Donghai ordered.

Wen nodded to Honghui, who in turn looked at Donghai: “one chance in three that we will run out of water before the end of the summer if we don’t ration the water even more stringently than we are doing now.”

More rationing?!” One of the colonels in the room blurted out. “Do you know the levels we are at right now?! Any more and we will have a riot from our own people, let alone the Tibetans or the Uighurs!” That last statement started off a commotion amongst the uniformed people at the table.
Before Honghui could respond, Donghai stepped back in: “Enough.” He then looked back at Honghui and Ling: “and what is the long term forecast?”
“Even worse,” Ling answered bluntly. Donghai leaned back in his chair and pressed on: “but there is a solution.”

Ling nodded. “There is a solution.”
“Let’s hear it.”

Ling looked at Honghui, who didn’t display any emotion, and so she continued, staring Donghai in the face: “we divert the Yarlung-Zangbo further northwest, west of Xigaze.”

Donghai shared an incredulous look with his commanders and leaned forward to face Ling: “divert the river?” His tone implied mocking. But Ling was not swayed.
“Yes.”
“And that is possible?” Donghai pressed.
“We already have some candidate locations.”

One of the Colonels leaned forward to face Ling: “and how expensi...”
Very!” Ling shot back. “But if we don’t do this, and soon, western Tibet will be mostly dry in another five years. Diverting a good portion of the Zangbo is the only option to irrigate that region for decades to come.”

“I am sorry,” a white-haired brigadier-general stepped in, “but who are you again?”

“She works for me,” Honghui stated flatly, leaving no room for further comment from the officer. Donghai continued to stare at Ling while his officers bickerd. He cut that conversation short with a wave of his hand and then looked at Wen: “you agree with this?”

“Well,” Wen sounded unsure, “that is certainly one solution to the problem. But it is important to remember that diverting the Yarlung will lead to major reduction in the water levels entering India and Bangladesh from the southeast. Combined with the global warming estimates for these countries, this step on our part could devastate that entire region!”

“Good. Perhaps this will finish them off for good, this time around.” Donghai stated with something bordering deep satisfaction. The very tone of his voice caught all of the civilians off guard. Everyone except Ling, that is, who nodded with satisfaction. Honghui continued to stare at the paintings on the far wall of the room, having disconnected himself from where this was going...

Wen looked at Honghui for some support, but there wasn’t much resistance to be found there. Donghai put an end to the hesitation: “you have something else to add, Wen?”

Wen was now visibly on the defensive. “No general. However, there is a lot of factors to be considered for a project of this magnitude...”

“Oh, I am sure of that!” Donghai offered. “But I believe you will have all of the resources in manpower and skill that you will need. It will a project worthy of the power and determination of China. To be able to bend the very will of nature to comply with our demands! What I want is for you to confirm that this is doable. And that this will solve our problems in the future. I want assurances. I want timetables. And I want hard estimates. Get me something to send to Beijing within ten days.”

“Yes sir,” Ling, Wen and Honghui nodded agreement.

Donghai leaned back and looked at his field commanders: “all this may be all good for the future, but it doesn’t get rid of our current Tibetan problem. If what these academics here are telling me is true, things are going to get worse. I want some plans to counter the upcoming unrest. Deploy more troops if you have to. If we need more police or army units, make a list and send it to me for approval. Once we declare the further rationing of water, the discontent will increase. Let’s plan for it.”

The various commanders nodded and made notes. Donghai looked around and then got up to indicate that this short briefing was over. As he buttoned his coat, he turned to his officers: “and make sure to confirm the good doctor’s estimates and claims to verify if they are accurate!”

“They are accurate.” Ling said as she collected her files and documents.

That caused Donghai to give out an increasingly rare laugh as he walked out of the room. The staff officers piled out in short order as well. Wen and his colleagues began bickering over what had just happened and the chatter grew into an uncontrolled technical discussion.

Honghui looked to Ling: “well, looks like you put us on course to change the path of a river and the very destiny of hundreds of millions of people and perhaps all of south asia!”

“You are always too dramatic, professor!” Ling replied. Her voice betrayed her bubbling satisfaction, however. “Besides, you predicted this same outcome when you saw the numbers from our report. But you didn’t say anything to support my claims!”

Honghui nodded and then silently reviewed the ongoing technical discussions amongst his peers before facing Ling again: “I didn’t think you needed my support. You are very competent at what you do, Ling. You don’t need an old man like me slowing you down.”

Ling smiled mockingly: “Come now, professor. Is this another one of your pre-retirement talks?”

Honghui continued with a serious tone: “perhaps this time I mean it.” Ling lost her smile on that, so Honghui smiled instead: “I have been giving it some thought this past week. I have been at it for almost thirty years. Perhaps its time to let the youth take over from me.” He looked over to his colleagues bickering amongst each other and saw Wen waving him over. “Come,” he said to Ling, “our colleagues need us to participate in the planning.”

As Honghui walked off, leaving a stunned Ling standing in his wake, a brigadier-general walked up to Ling: “Dr. Qi?”
That shook Ling out of her daze. She turned to face this new man: “Yes?”

“I was reading your report...well, at least one of them,” the general continued, “and I notice that you are from the Qi family in Shanghai. Are you related by any chance to a Major Xiluan Qi?”

That caught Ling by surprise. “How...?”

The general nodded. I knew him personally. During the way with India he was in my staff. We were moved to Tibet during the last days as part of reinforcements to beef up the southeastern front. We were in the convoy when it was struck by Indian warplanes...” the voice trailed off. “I am so sorry for your loss. Major Qi was a fine officer.”

“I see,” Ling offered. “Thank you, general.”

The officer nodded in silence and walked off, trailed by his staff. Ling watched the man leave. A flood of memories overtook her. She had received the news of her brother’s death when she was out for research with Honghui near Manchuria. The war had taken its toll on her family. And it had scarred so many of the people in this room in so many ways. The humiliation of that war was not lost on Ling. She had cursed her chosen profession so many times in the wake of that war. To no avail. But now she had a chance to participate in a project of immense national prestige.

And if it devastated the lands and lives of the people that had brought sorrow to her family...well, then that was going to be her vengeance, wouldn’t it?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby zoverian » 21 Oct 2016 14:52

vivek_ahuja wrote:
zoverian wrote:is the book already out....please keep me posted with the link to purchase...


Cerberus is not out yet. It will be out in end of December 2016.

Chimera and Fenix are already available for purchase.

-Vivek


Many thanks

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby rkhanna » 21 Oct 2016 16:25

@Vivek, Thank you saar for obliging us. A couple of questions (i know i am being impatient lol)

Would Indian Intelligence already have a sense of the pulse of the situation on the ground in Tibet - I.e aside from HUMINT on PLA deployments, etc also doing its own "Academic" numbers on the Water Situation.

A Worse Case scenario - i.e PLA deployment, and PRC strategy with regards to Unrest and Future Water Requirements Plan (which is many years in the future from current "crises") must be being built up as we speak (in your narrative) - Is your story going to hold around a short term Indian Reaction to whats going to go down on the ground currently - or bring in policy discussion/planning (Political, Economic, Military) for the future event of Water Resource Disruption in South Asia.?

Thank you again.

PS. (If you have read Dragon Fire and Dragon Strike) - Hope the SFF is going to go Rogue right about now ;p

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vila » 21 Oct 2016 17:47

Vintage Vivek :D :D

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby ManuJ » 22 Oct 2016 02:24

Vivek, great start.

Small edit in the 2nd post:
“That’s not our problem,” Chen stated flatly

This should be Wencang I think.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby soumik » 22 Oct 2016 10:24

Fully expecting the 600km range Brahmos & S400 to make an entry in this scenario. As should Nirbhay.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Manish_Sharma » 22 Oct 2016 11:02

:twisted:
Tejas Mk 1A with 2052 radar too..... dropping Garuthma and Garuda glide bombs and Astra Mk 2 + SFDR will also be deployed.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 24 Oct 2016 02:12

A request from readers: If you have purchased and read Chimera or Fenix (or both) from Amazon (whether in India or elsewhere), can I ask you to leave some reviews of the books on the relevant pages?

Chimera currently has 93 reviews on amazon US. That is really awesome! But Fenix has barely 6 reviews. If you have read Fenix, but not reviewed it yet, can you please do so on either the Amazon India page or the worldwide pages:

Chimera amazon page

Chimera amazon India page

Fenix amazon page

Fenix amazon India page

If you prefer Goodreads for making a review, you can do that here:

Chimera Goodreads page

Fenix Goodreads page

Reviews are the only way for a new author to make himself visible, so the help is appreciated. Thanks in advance.

-Vivek
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 24 Oct 2016 02:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 24 Oct 2016 02:13

Image

Ansari stepped out of the vehicle and heard the rumble of smells of an operational airbase. The whining of the powerful turbofan engines of the massive C-17 transport aircraft drowned out everything else and the air had the smell of expended jet fuel. He turned to see his security personnel already standing around the three bullet-proof vehicles, scanning the landscape of Hindon airbase’s operations center. The weapons they held were neatly hidden away inside of their coats.

“Welcome, sir,” Air-Marshal Verma offered his hand to Ansari with a smile. Ansari cringed but shook his hand anyway. It had not been lost on him that had he stayed on in army special-operations, he would have been saluting Verma instead. But as it was, Ansari was now a civilian. And a very important one in the current Indian government.

“Thank you, air-marshal,” he replied finally and continued: “has he arrived yet?”
Verma nodded. “He’s here.”

“Good,” Ansari turned to face his security personnel: “let’s go, gentlemen.”

Ansari walked with Verma as they headed past the neat lawns and up the few steps of the building. They weren’t going to the underground operations center, the central node of the air-force’s air-mobility fleet. That would have been too obtrusive for what Ansari had in mind. He needed a quieter location. The office buildings above ground would do just fine...

“In here,” Verma pointed towards one of the rooms with the closed door.
Ansari nodded with satisfaction and turned to face Verma: “we will only need an hour. I appreciate the discretion.”
“Not a problem, sir.” Verma noted dryly and then added: “I am used to you cloak-and-dagger folks.”

“Fair enough, air-marshal.” Ansari noted with a smile.

As the air-marshal and his adjutant left him and his entourage and disappeared down the corridor, Ansari finally opened the door and walked inside to find a man in casual civilian clothes.

“Well, look who’s here!” Gephel said as he got up from one of the chairs in the room. “Ansari, you old dog! How the hell have you been?!” He shook Ansari’s outstretched hand with a violent grab and shake.

“Good to see you too, old friend,” Ansari said and looked around. “I hope this wasn’t too much of a hassle for you.” He waved for his security officers to close the door and leave them be. The men nodded and closed the door behind them.

“Now,” Ansari said as he took a chair and waved Gephel to a seat on the small couch in the corner. “Let’s get down to it.”

“Finally,” Gephel said with a smile as he took the seat, “I can learn why you dragged me from my comfortable living room and placed me here in the middle of a busy airbase!”

Ansari grunted in amusement: “you enjoying the comforts of the civilian world?” He pointed to Gephel’s casual shirt and jeans. “And why are you dressed like a kid?”

“What,” Gephel responded, “I am not allowed to be a carefree kid now? I am in my second childhood, dear sir! No more pre-dawn marathons with heavy backpacks, no more eating snakes and berries in the boonies and no hauling myself over snow and rocks gasping for breath. No sir, I am very content to be the recipient of news, instead of making it! You on the other hand,” he pointed to Ansari’s coat and tie and the military haircut, “you look like you are caught between two worlds. Wearing civilian clothes on the outside but still thinking of yourself as a soldier on the inside. Can’t make up your damn mind?” Gephel let out a burst of laughter.

Ansari smiled, sighed and then leaned back in his chair: “too much truth for one night, Gephel. Let’s dial it back, okay?”
Gephel made a gesture with his face that said “Okay”, and then his face turned deadly serious: “I hear Tibet is going down the gutters again. This time permanently.”

Ansari nodded as he unbuttoned his coat. “We spoke with the Tibetan government people a few days ago. They wanted us to make a protest with Beijing about it.”

“Yeah, I saw that on the news yesterday,” Gephel said, “whoopty-f**king-do.”

“Indeed,” Ansari continued. “It won’t matter a damn. Beijing is moving in for the kill. And this time it will stick because this time they have control on the one resource in shortest supply out there.”

“Water?” Gephel asked rhetorically.
“Water. The global climate change is killing us. The smaller rivers at those high altitudes are drying up on their side and drinkable water is now having to be transported on roads to the remote locations from the Yarlung. And guess who gets first dibs on that water?”

“The Han overlords?” Gephel said disgustedly.

Ansari nodded and continued: “they are basically killing the Tibetans by denying access to drinkable water. And its perfect because they are telling the whole world that its not in their control and that there is no water to be had. Just a natural catastrophy, you see?”

Bullshit!” Gephel replied, “but I guess it seems plausible enough for the world to accept it on face value.” He sighed in resignation and then looked at Ansari again: “so what do we do about it?”

Ansari smiled cruelly: “do? Didn’t you see the protest note we sent out?”

“Please tell me you are kidding!” Gephel pleaded.

“Well, what can we do about it?” Ansari retorted. “We can’t intervene deep inside Tibet like we did the last time. You saw how that turned out? Our citizens have not yet forgiven us for that little adventure! And half our cities and our most of our economy is still in ruin from that disasterous affair with Pakistan. Not to mention the drought that is killing most of the northern plains. Oh, and don’t get me started on the military situation either. Have you seen the massive rearmament that China has gone through? Our military is still dealing with the fallout from the last war. Simply put, there is no money or drive for a new confrontation with a powerful China. Not over Tibet. Not this time.”

Gephel stared at Ansari in silence for several seconds and then replied dryly: “I see.”

Don’t give me that look, Gephel!” Ansari said. “We tried to help you guys last time. It didn’t work. And India is in no state to go another round.”
“Is that what you called me here for?” Gephel asked.

Ansari bit his lip and shook his head: “No. What I want to know is what happens next. If New Delhi can’t go the extra mile for the Tibetans, what will they do?”

“We will fight, of course!” Gephel responded increduously. “What did you expect us to do?”
“Yes, but to what end?” Ansari prodded. “Every prediction on our side tells us how utterly hopeless this will be. Without something as essential as water, a rebellion will grind to a halt.”

“Perhaps,” Gephel conceded, “but not before a lot of Han blood has been split in vengence for their actions. You realize, Ansari, that you cannot stop these idealistic Tibetan boys from crossing over the Himalayas to join the fight to the bitter end. They will not sit idly by while Beijing massacres the proud Tibetan civilization.”

Ansari sighed and then pushed on: “part of our problem is the lack of people on the ground feeding us information on what is happening beyond the Himalayas. We can’t help with anything if we don’t know what is happening! And these Tibetan boys, as you call them, won’t cooperate with us if we are not materially assisting them in their fight.”

Aha!” Gephel exclaimed with a smile and sat straighter in his seat: “And you want me to be the one to get you that information! This is why you brought me out here, didn’t you?”

“Will you do it?” Ansari asked flatly but didn’t get a reply from Gephel, so he continued:

“look, a decade ago, you and know shared a common vision with the Pathfinder missions, but circumstances have changed. For the worse! A pathfinder-style operation just will not work anymore. The borders are too tightly sealed for that. Just last week we lost one of our high-altitude unmanned aerial drones just trying to sneak a peak across the mountains. The only data we have on what is happening out there is through some low-level Chinese operatives and the satellite imagery. None of which fill in the true picture on the streets of villages and towns in Tibet. Only when we know the ground realities will we ever be able to do something about it. Don’t you see that?”

Gephel stood up from the couch, forcing Ansari to do the same. “Look,” Gephel said in a quieter tone, “I will try and open a few family back-channels with the Tibetans to see what I can find out. But understand that they will not trust me fully, now that you guys have decided to simply stand and watch the genocide taking place up there. If they share something, I will let you know.”

“That’s fair enough,” Ansari nodded and then looked at his watch. “I need to get back to my lair. If you find out anything, just contact my office and ask to see me. Just make up some personal excuse to do so.”

“What’s with the secrecy?” Gephel asked. “We are not at war.”

“We are, but not in the way you think,” Ansari said. “the previous government revealed a lot about the Pathfinder missions in China. Just short of connecting us directly. Sure enough, Beijing has operatives on the ground keeping an eye on who comes and goes from South Block, especially Tibetans. The last thing we need is Beijing going off the deep end because they think a Pathfinder-II operation is being set up again.”

“If only they knew the truth, eh?” Gephel grunted with barely concealed disgust. Ansari spotted the tone but ignored it. As the two men stepped outside the office where Ansari’s security personnel were waiting, Ansari grabbed Gephel’s shoulder: “just remember, we are after information. Don’t make this personal, okay?”

“It is personal!” Gephel replied. “It always was for me.”

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Khalsa » 25 Oct 2016 01:03

Vivek, my friend I never realised Fenix is out on Amazon.
Will buy and do the deed, and will write an update for Chimera too which was purchased ages , ago.

Once again good luck for Cerebrus and god speed.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Khalsa » 26 Oct 2016 02:33

How relevant is Vivek's topic that he has chosen as the basis of cerebrus ?
How relevant is Siachen ?
How relevant is water to North India ?

Please share this article with those idiots who want to appease the alligator that is Pakistan and give all of Kashmir to Pakistan.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-37755985

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Yagnasri » 26 Oct 2016 10:48

This time it is flying fast. I got two of your books from Amezon sir. But never took time to write a review. I am sorry for that. Doing now.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 27 Oct 2016 08:43

Image

“Your tribesmen are rioting again.” The tone of the voice was a curious mix of mockery and contempt.

Jangchup looked up from his papers and looked at his two colleagues over the rim of his glasses, resting on the rim of his nose. He saw Ling condescendingly smiling at him from near the window of the office. From where she stood, the riots in the streets further down the slope were clearly visible.

Before Jangchup could respond, the window panes shuddered as the deep rumble of a helicopter passed over them. All three men instinctively looked at the roof as the noise passed on. Ling leaned out the window to see a black-painted police Harbin Z-9 helicopter circling over to the scene of riots. She could see the heavily-armed police in riot gear moving in for quashing the Tibetan protesters in the streets. The latter were throwing rocks and other items at the advancing phalanx of Chinese police officers. The sounds of the blaring police loudspeakers were echoing everywhere...

“All right,” Ling said as she lowered the glass panes and latched them in place. The external noise from the streets reducing dramatically. She then turned to face her colleagues and smiled: “time to get to work!”

“Okay,” Honghui said with a deep breath, “the preliminary numbers look credible to me. The location west of Xigaze is the most promising. The gradients, mass flow and general accessibility from an engineering standpoint. Don’t you agree, Wen?”

Wen nodded, but didn’t say anything. Honghui turned to Ling: “when can we expect the military to move in and take over from us?”
Ling frowned and turned to Jangchup, seated in the far corner of the room: “Jangchup, please leave the room.”

The room was instantly silenced and focus turned on Jangchup, who looked up from his desk at the Chinese faces staring at him in silence. He saw the cold look from Ling and instinctively looked for support from Wen and Honghui. The latter removed his glassed and nodded. Jangchup realized he had no support in this room at all. He silently picked up his papers and walked out of the room in shame, lighting his cigarette as he disappeared out the door...

“That was most unnecessary, Ling!” Wen said as soon as the door closed behind Jangchup. “Jangchup has been a part of our team for years! He is our liasion to the Tibetan community here and...”

Exactly!” Ling interjected harshly. “He is a Tibetan. And as such he cannot be trusted!”

Oh, what are you talking about?” Wen said incredulously and raised his hands in the air in amazement.

Ling stared him straight in the eye: “do you not see what is happening here?” She looked to the others in the room: “do you all still think that this is some kind of a research project?” The room remained silent.

Ling walked over to the window and opened the panes to bring in a gust of slightly cold fresh air followed by a barrage of shreiks, sirens, rifle fire and the buzzing noises of helicopters. “This!” Ling waved out the window, “This is what we are fighting! This is what China is fighting out there! This is supposed to be Lhasa, but it feels like we are in the middle of a third-world ruined battlefield city. This project that we have been entrusted to work on is the single most important project that will be the difference between Han domination of the Tibetan mountains and utter chaos and anarchy. We must approach this project with a military-like focus!”

“And with the utmost of secrecy,” Honghui added quietly as he wiped his reading glasses. “Not least of which is because of the massive misery it will inflict on the lower riparian states on the Yarlung.”

“Wait a second,” Wen added in shock, “are you insinuating that Jongchup is a spy?! That is absurd!”

Really?” Ling retorted. “Where is the Tibetan rebel government based? Where are the rebels themselves based? Don’t fool yourself, Dr. Wen! All of these Tibetans are the same scum that caused so much war and misery on us through their revolts. And now they are doing it again. We never should have educated them in the first place!”

“Enough,” Honghui said with a raised hand to Ling, who nodded and calmed herself down. He then turned to Wen: “my friend. we just can’t take the chance anymore with any of this,” he waved the papers in his hands that contained his hand calculations. “This is just too important in its implications to be let loose to the outside world. Besides, that is not our call to make. We are simply scientists, are we not? We do what the party expects from us and leave the rest to them to decide. We must not force their hand by treating this work casually.”

“You want us to get rid of all of our Tibetan workers and colleagues?” Wen asked in resignation. “Did you know that the water shortage has gotten so bad for the Tibetans that they are dying of thirst and hunger everyday in the villages and towns? The Tibetan workers in this department are only able to take care of their families because of the work they do here. What happens to them if we let them during a crisis such as this?”

Honghui exhaled but did not say a word. Ling saw that and said what her professor did not have the heart to say: “that’s not our problem, Wen! Get rid of these security threats right away.”

Wen looked at Ling and his face flushed red with anger. But Ling was not easily budged. She had long since decided that nothing and nobody was going to intervene with this prestigious project of hers. Wen was about to say something to her, but bit his tongue and let it go.

One of the other engineers in the room finally broke the silence: “Fine. We will purge the Tibetans in the department. Can we please get back to work now? Donghai will have our skins if we are not prepared with the engineering estimates by next week!”

“Fair enough,” Ling said and walked to her desk, “I...”

The sudden snap and crack caused everyone in the room to dive for cover. Papers flew off into the air and broken glass lay on the floor near their tables.

“What the ****** was that?!” One of the younger engineers said from behind the cover of his desk. Honghui looked up from his seat and saw a neatly-rounded hole on the glass pane, about the size of a rifle bullet. The cracked glass was glittering against the blue skies in the background.

“A stray bullet!”

The room returned to silence until someone in the room laughed as the tension released itself. “Is everyone okay?”

As others joined the conversation, Ling walked up to the place on the wooden wall where the bullet had hit the large mural on the wall. She saw the bullet still lodged in its place, warm to the touch...

She took out her small pocket knife and dug out the bullet remnant from the mural depicting the glorious arrival of Chinese soldiers into Tibet almost three-quarters of a century ago. The poetic aspect of this whole incident was much to rich to pass her unnoticed. She toyed with the bullet remnant in her palm and looked at its dented metallic shape: “you will need more than that to stop us now.”

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby zoverian » 27 Oct 2016 15:53

Reading Chimera now....

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby jamwal » 28 Oct 2016 20:55

I had written review for Chimera. Wrote one for Fenix too

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 01 Nov 2016 09:49

Image

“And it can be done?” Wencang asked as he turned away from the digital map on the wall.

“Yes sir,” the Engineer Colonel replied as he walked around Wencang and laid a finger on the red simulated lines on the wall. “You see these bifurcations here? They are designed to lead to valleys that have been marked as fertile candidates. The fresh water diverted from the Yarlung will be used to create these fertile valleys and enhance the vegetation dramatically over a period of two years. Then the corresponding changes in local ecological conditions will ensure the continuous fertile cycle for years to come.”

“And we will turn a desert into a green landscape,” Wencang added with satisfaction. He then turned to the rest of the politburo members in the room: “are we all in agreement with the analysis presented by General Donghai and the Hydrology and Water Resources department?”

He received nods from the old party members in the room. The plan to recover Tibet from being turned into a vast high-altitude wasteland was the highest priority item in the meeting today. Wencang walked over and flipped the front cover of the folder on his table and looked at some of the images and assessment notes on the first few pages. He was silent for several seconds. As others waited, he fished into his pocket for his habitual cheap cigarettes and popped one out of its packet.

“External repercussions?” He said as he lit the cigarette and a small puff of smoke rose above his head. The question was for everyone in the room. Some party members shuffled in their seats. Others shared glances. All of them waited for the first person to raise an objection...

“This will not sit well with the lower riparian states,” Yun, the foreign minister finally stated. “Taking away most of the water of this river will devastate their economies. They will take this to the United Nations and the world media.”

“India?” Wencang asked flatly. “Who else?”
“Bangladesh, Myanmar.” Yun replied. “Perhaps Bhutan and Nepal as well.”

Wencang nodded and let out a puff of air. Chen, the defense minister, leaned forward in his seat: “But can they actually do anything to stop us?”

“In a practical sense, no.” Yun conceded. “They will make lots of noises, lots of protest. Perhaps even attempt to get other ASEAN countries to lodge protests on their behalf. India will use the moment to squeeze together the Himalayan nations further into its sphere of influence, as it has been attempting to do under prime-minister Ravoof’s guidance for the last year. This sphere of influence is currently just that: a sphere of influence. There are no real treaties in place, except what India already has with Bhutan. But if we go ahead with this,” Yun waved an arm to the large digital map of Tibet on the wall, “then this sphere of influence might turn into formal treaty to unify a front against us.”

“A military treaty?” Chen asked with a raised eyebrow.
Yun shook his head. “Probably not. There are too many differences between them to allow a military alliance. More like an economic and political one.”

Bah,” Wencang scoffed. “What economy exists down there anyway compared to us! We can afford to get into a trade war with these midgets and we will crush them outright. This should not stop our plans.” He took another puff from his cigarette.

“And what if they do form a military alliance?” Yun countered. It was a genuine question on his part as this was outside his domain. His tone conveyed the question and Wencang looked to Chen: “well?”

Chen leaned back in his seat and exhaled as he collected his thoughts before looking at Wencang: “we should not underestimate the Indians.” Like last time...he didn’t add.

Wencang nodded silently on that one, his lips contorting as he focused his thoughts. “Ravoof is no fool,” he conceded quietly. “It would have been better if his predecessor was still in power. But how far will Ravoof go? What can he actually do to stop us?”

“Well, they can’t invade us, if that is what you are asking,” Chen answered. “Air-power. That will be something for us to worry. And nuclear weapons, of course.”

Wencang chuckled. “Do they even have any after their little war with Pakistan? I would have have thought their nuclear stockpile would have been depleted by now?”

“It has,” colonel-general Shan, the commander of the reconstituted 2ND Artillery Corps, answered. “They have a handful remaining, but that arsenal is mostly for self-defense at this point.”

“And we outnumber them by an order of magnitude on all fronts,” Chen stated flatly. Shan nodded in agreement: “They won’t intervene. They can’t intervene.”

“That is what your predecessor thought as well, General.” All heads at the table turned to face general Feng, commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. Feng embraced the attention and continued to face Shan: “and as we all know, that assumption killed him.”

Chen bit his lips and then faced down his fearless air-force commander: “Feng, are you suggesting that Ravoof will intervene?”

“You can count on it, sir.” Feng said quietly to his former commander.
“Why?”
“Because I would,” Feng replied quickly. “And because what we are proposing here will destroy the eastern quarter of his nation. Would we sit quietly if we were in their shoes?”

“But they will surely lose,” Shan countered.

Feng nodded. “Indeed they will. We will make sure of it this time around. But it will be a bitter struggle. Make no mistake about it.”

“Good,” Wencang answered as he flipped the pages of the folder in front of him. “Maybe this water project of ours,” he pointed at the papers on the desk with his cigarette holding fingers, “will finally allow us to sever the arm with the festering wound once and for all. There will only be one beneficiary of the water from this Tibetan river. China. Do any of you wish to challenge this fact?”

Wencang looked around the room and met only silence or nodding. “Good.”

He then turned to Donghai: “by unanimous vote, this committee approves the project to divert the Yarlung away from its course and into Chinese territory. Do what you have to do to get this project completed.” He turned to Chen, Shan and Feng: “you people figure out the best way to convince Ravoof that any military adventurism or military opposition to our plans will not be tolerated. Maybe we will be able to keep them down while we take their water away. And if we can’t keep this rabid dog under our feet, find a way for us to kill it with one blow.”

Wencang then turned to Yun: “make sure that Ravoof knows nothing about our plans for now. When the time comes, it will become apparent and will be too late to do anything. Deny whatever rumors and protests come up.”

“How long can we hide our intentions on the ground?” Chen asked Donghai. The latter just shook his head dismissively: “not long at all. The amount of manpower and resources that will go into this project will be stupendous. When the work starts, everyone in Tibet and the world will know about it.”

Chen frowned.

Feng leaned forward: “just disguise the true intention of the project! Call it whatever you want: canals, drains, whatever comes to your mind. Just keep the scale of the project away from prying eyes,” Feng pointed a finger to the ceiling.

“Indian satellites?” Donghai asked rhetorically.

Feng nodded: “indeed. That is the only true method that Ravoof will have of determining our intentions. We know exactly when and where the Indian satellites are at all times. Make sure that your engineering projects on the ground are well disguised whenever their satellites go over. Make it look like a dam project or something. Something innocuous. Something we have done a dozen times on the river already.”

“That will work for a while,” Donghai conceded, “but we can’t keep it hidden forever. They will figure the intentions out eventually.”
Feng leaned back in his seat: “then we just need to be prepared to stop them from interfering.” He looked at Wencang and Chen: “when can I get permission to move my air forces into Tibet for deterrent purposes?”

Chen raised a hand: “not at the moment. Any military surge from us will only tip our hand. Let the engineering work get underway. Once we know that Ravoof knows, surge away. Surge everything you need at that point. Prepare your plans in the meantime.”

“We have plans already in place.” Feng stated flatly and waved his adjutant over. The latter removed a folder from his suitcase and handed it to Feng, who then passed it on to Chen. Feng continued as Chen looked through the folder: “Shandian. That’s our contingency plan for a massive surge into pre-prepared locations and bases in Tibet. We have been preparing for this for some time. When the time comes, I can move my forces into Tibet in days. Shandian also comes in various grades of escalation, as you will see in that folder,” Feng nodded to the documents in Chen’s and Wencang’s hands, “depending onw what you need me to do, of course.”

Wencang was visibly surprised: “you have been planning this for while, Feng.”

Feng let out a cruel smile: “the PLAAF has a score to settle with the Indians, sir.”

“As we all do,” Chen said as he closed the folder. “But keep your enthusiasm in check. We will do this without war if we can. Maybe the Indians will simply roll over and die as we drain their rivers. But if they don’t, we will let you loose.”

vivek_ahuja
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vivek_ahuja » 02 Nov 2016 10:03

Image

Jongchup tried to avoid the main streets on his way to work. They were far too engulfed in the chaos of the ongoing riots to be a safe route to his office. Even when the streets were clear of the rioters, it was filled with rocks, pebbles, discharged tear gas canisters and expended rifle cartridges...and sometimes even puddles of blood.

Jangchup raised his slipping glasses back up the rim of his nose as he stepped around the rocks and other debris in the streets and cautiously made his way to the secure government complex buildings in the north of Lhasa. The air was alive with the distant sounds of mass protesters, loudspeakers and rifle shots.

The tension was in the air.

One hundred meters down the street he could see the highly reinforced barricades covering the entrance of the Chinese official complex and military headquarters. The grand Potala palace stood like a mountain to his left as he made his way down the ironically named Beijing Middle Road. He saw Chinese soldiers in desert camouflage and kevlar helmets taking cover behind the barricades. Their shiny-new QBZ rifles were glistening in the morning sun. A ZBD09 armored personnel carrier stood in the middle of the road, its wheels turned to allow it to swivel out of the way when required. Jangchup was very aware that the turret was tracking him as he made his way towards this military blockade...

Halt!” One of the officers shouted. The cold morning air carried his voice with an echo. Jangchup froze.

The officer then turned his head to two of his soldiers and motioned for them to go check this man out. They nodded, stood and moved out around their positions behind the concrete slabs and ran over to Jangchup. Their rifles were pointed at him at all times and their sounds of their boots clattered and echoed in the empty street.

One of the soldiers waved to Jangchup to raise his hands as they walked up to him. One of them kept his rifles aimed squarely at Jangchup’s head from two meters away. The other proceeded to pat him down and search him for explosives or other booby-traps. The soldier frisking him ordered Jangchup to open his suitcase. Jangchup complied. There was no resistance to be had from him.

Satisfied that he wasn’t a Tibetan resistance fighter, the soldier stopped his search and looked Jangchup in the eye: “what do you want here? Don’t you know the area is closed to all Tibetans?”

“I work here,” Jangchup offered.”

“Really?” The Chinese soldier laughed mockingly. He shared a look with his colleague who smiled as well. “A Tibetan still working for his Han masters after all that has happened here? How have your tribesmen not killed you already for this act?”

Jongchup stayed quiet. He knew better than to get into an argument with the boorish PLA soldiers in the city.
“Papers,” the soldier ordered, still smiling.

Jongchup reached inside his shirt pocket and removed the folded papers and ID cards. The soldier glanced through them and then raised an eyebrow. He then turned to his colleague and showed him the ID card: “Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Lhasa. Our friend here is a Doctor and scientist working with the department director.”

“Big deal,” the other soldier said flatly. “Just take him to the lieutenant.”
“Right,” the soldier said and turned to Jangchup. “Come with me. Let’s go.”

The three men began walking towards the barricade where the PLA officer was standing in front of the armored vehicle. His body language implied impatience. To soften the anger, the soldier in front of Jangchup waved his papers above his head to indicate all was in order.

After several long minutes of delay talking with the officer, he was finally let into the government complex. What would normally take him a few minutes had already taken him more than thirty minutes. Getting to work was no longer a trivial affair. Luckily, the office building of the Hydrology and Water Resources department was very close to the entrance of the complex. In fact, its upper floors overlooked the walled compounds of the complex. An obvious security risk and indicative of the past neglect and status of this ordinary government branch.

Jangchup entered the building and walked up the stairs to the upper levels where the main conference room was. He saw Wen standing near the shattered window panes that were now being replaced...

“They are finally replacing the bullet-hole in the glass?” Jangchup asked.

Wen turned to face him and smiled: “indeed they are.” He waved Jangchup towards his office. “Come, we have things to take care of.”
Jangchup wasn’t surprised. Over the last two weeks, his assigned roles had diminished gradually. Several other Tibetan employees of the department had not returned to work in the past few days. Since they were all colleagues and friends outside of work, they had confided in Jongchup that they had been relieved of their duties on account of Dr. Ling Qui’s demand that the department now work entirely with Chinese personnel. The number of military officials arriving and leaving from the building’s corridors had also quadrupled in the last few days...

Jongchup was no fool. He knew that Beijing was proceeding with something sinister. The Tibetans outside this complex had been rioting for weeks for water rights. And they hadn’t gotten anywhere. So now the riots were giving way to open resistance in the streets. Chinese soldiers in Lhasa had increased exponentially. It seemed that more troops arrived in the city each night, or so it seemed, since each morning brought an increased PLA presence.

Wen waved Jongchup into his office and then closed the door behind him. He motioned to his secretary to not interrupt the two men.
Wen walked around his desk and sighed: “You heard about the other Tibetan colleagues we have had to let go?”

Jongchup nodded as he took a seat. “Yes, sir.”

“Well,” Wen said in a sad tone, “you must know that I have very little choice in this matter. Orders have come in from Beijing that in light of the serious revolts happening in Tibet, we are to temporarily suspend all collaborative activities with our Tibetan friends. When peace returns, we will welcome them back to the fold...”

Wen’s voice trailed off, only to resurge again: “of course that’s part of the story. When the Chinese government lays off people, it is never temporary. So there is no point pretending otherwise. Your colleagues with their years of experience on the water resources of Tibet are being let into the mountains to roam free.”

“Or die of hunger and thirst,” Jongchup said finally, letting some emotion seep into his voice.
Wen cringed at that statement. Truth was bitter. “Yes.”

“We all trusted you, Dr. Wen,” Jongchup continued. “With the continued crisis over drinking water, where will our people go other than to their gods? We should be here helping to solve this problem! This is a betrayal.”

Wen nodded sympathetically. “Of course, you have learned to expect that from us Han people, haven’t you?”

Jongchup maintained his peace.

Wen looked at the wooden desk and then walked over to the tinted window overlooking the rooftops of Lhasa. He could see the PLA helicopters silently moving over the valley, far to the west of the city. He turned to face Jongchup: “you realize, as much as anyone here, that our sole focus in this department has been to find a source of water for all of us, Han and Tibetan, to live off of. Yes?”

Jongchup nodded, moving his glasses up his nose.

“Well,” Wen hesitated. He knew he was crossing a threshold here. But his conscience pushed him on: “we may have found a solution to that. Not just short term, but long term.”

Jongchup was visibly surprised. He sat up straighter in his seat. “But...that’s wonderful, Dr. Wen! When can we...”

Wen cut him off with a raised hand: “Not really. It is wonderful for us, but perhaps not so much for your people. Or millions of other peoples. You see, my friend, we have a solution that will fix the water resources limitation for Tibet once and for all. It will modify the local ecological conditions to support permanent regional, sustained water replenishment cycles despite the global climate changes. But resources are not free. What the Han people will gain will come from the bowls of other cultures. Hundreds of millions of people will be affected. Many millions will lose their livelihoods. Hundreds of thousands may lose their lives over the next few years.”

Jongchup faced Wen in the eye: “and what about us Tibetans?”

Wen shook his head. “This project will not save your people this year. Perhaps not even the next. It will save the Han people in Tibet for the foreseeable future. But your people will suffer greatly in the meantime. Many will die.”

Wen stood silent, letting all of that sink in. Jongchup finally removed his glasses and rubbed his eyes. “And why are you telling me all this? I am sure you are breaking multiple security proto...”

“Because I can’t, I won’t,” Wen jumped in, “I won’t have this indirect genocide on my hands. I won’t let this be the legacy of decades of my dedicated service to make people’s lives better. As a fellow scientist, I know you understand what I am saying.”

Jongchup contemplated his Chinese colleague as he wiped his glasses. He nodded in understanding.

“The party officials in Beijing has ordered us to begin work on this project right away. We will be beginning to lay out the locations within a week. And massive engineering and construction teams will move into gear within weeks. They will pave the way for the first stages of diverting the Yarlung away from its primary vector and further north into Tibet. This is not a secondary diversion. We are talking about most of the water it gathers. There won’t be any water left the Yarlung to take with it into the lower riparian states. Nobody knows the existence of the overall aims of the Beijing plan. Certainly no-one outside China. However, if word was to get out...”

“Do you realize what you are saying?” Jongchup snapped. “You could have us both arrested and shot for treason!”

“As I was saying,” Wen continued past the protest, “if word was to reach the outside world, perhaps the international pressure would force Beijing to change their plans. That is our only hope to stop this before it begins. Once it starts and reaches an advanced stage of completion, Beijing will not stop. Too much loss of face. It will be too late. The project will become a source of national pride and ego. At that point, we will go to war but not back down.”

“And war it will be!” Wongchup stated flatly.

Wen sighed. “Yes.”

“You realize, of course,” Wongchup said as he got up from his seat, “that even if word somehow reaches the outside world, the Tibetans will not be saved? You realize that we will fight for our survival?”

Wen nodded and waved at the military barricades near out on the streets outside the building: “as you can see, we are expecting nothing less from your people, my friend.” He walked across the desk and opened a drawer, withdrawing some papers. He handed them to Wongchup: “this is your final assignment for this department. You are to make a survey for us near the Chumba Yumco, a natural lake south of Gyangze and very near the Bhutanese border. A field trip.”

Jongchup took the papers and looked up at Wen, who continued: “if I were you, I would take the family along. Leave no one behind for the police or military to find later. Make your way south and try and escape from this godforsaken land altogether. You understand?”

“I do,” Wongchup said and lowered his arm to pick up his suitcase. He was about to walk out but turned to face Wen and put out his hand as a goodbye to an old colleague and friend. “What will you do, Wen?”

“I will be here,” Wen said with resignation. “Leaving this immensely important project now will blacklist me forever within China. They might even label me traitor for refusing to put my experience to work. And my family. No, I can’t risk leaving.”

“At least get somewhere safe,” Jongchup pointed to the windows overlooking Lhasa. “This place won’t survive an attack.”

Wen smiled. “They are moving us out to a secure military base next week. We are all the army’s servants now.”

“Goodbye, Dr. Wen,” Jongchup offered his hand and Wen took it. “Perhaps we will meet in better times.”

The door closed behind Jongchup as he left the office. Wen sighed and watched the serenity of Lhasa from the tinted window panes.

“Better times indeed.”

Atulya P
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Atulya P » 02 Nov 2016 16:29

Very pertinent scenario Vivekji. As were your last two works.
Indians have, as usual, refused to acknowledge (let alone confront the reality) this for years. The small run of the river projects that we keep reading about and many of those that we don't get to read about, all put together would rob us of Brahmaputra waters. It will be very interesting to see how this unfolds - Hope tibetans come good this time around, they have been left with no choice!

vila
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby vila » 04 Nov 2016 10:14

Vivek Sir, showing signs of withdrawal symptoms :wink: . Next dose urgently required. :D

dipak
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby dipak » 04 Nov 2016 15:37

vivek_ahuja wrote:Image

“And it can be done?” Wencang asked as he turned away from the digital map on the wall.

...
...
“As we all do,” Chen said as he closed the folder. “But keep your enthusiasm in check. We will do this without war if we can. Maybe the Indians will simply roll over and die as we drain their rivers. But if they don’t, we will let you loose.”

...

Vivek saar, in above latest scenario, Wongchup stands for Jongchup, right ...?

Rana S
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIV

Postby Rana S » 05 Nov 2016 07:05

Vivek saar, thank you for coming back after being away in the wilderness!


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