Pathankot AirForce base under attack

[rajanb]

Watched Arun Jaitley press conf 60 seconds ago.

When I watched Obama (also Bush and Reagan earlier) after an attack, watching a Brit PM, watching a French PM I saw passion and anger and a warning that the attackers will have to pay.

With Jaitley - total disappointment. No passion. No anger. If I had the sound turned down his demeanour and his body language might have been him talking about a new tax that is proposed or the measures taken to reduce loss of power transmission by increasing efficiency. Even Paki jernails speak with anger and firmness and say that someone will pay. But not our leaders

This is a total sell out. I have not heard one leader say with passion and anger that the perpetrators will be punished. Indian governments are up to something that I do not understand. Maybe it is true that we have been warned by powers like the US to keep our hands off Pakistan. Only that can explain this funereal calm and soporific tone.

In order to comfort myself (cry myself to sleep?) I have to imagine that something is coming. But that has gone on so long that I know that my tears will be dry tomorrow, but we will bow before Pakistan. Not giving in, but simply giving up

I have just one point to make.

We have to allow leaders to display leadership. We as a forum also make an impact in this. Now, since this forum is majoritarian right-wing nationalist and forum members opinion is considered to be jingo opinion. This jingo opinion is shared in some aspect by entire right-wing organisations across India. Any leader can play it safe by saying that I am not going down that route, because that route is taken by some countrymen who want to settle scores with Pakistan and I am not going there. But I am doing this, this & this as response ... which may be covert and may only be shared in NSC and MI & 'international community' (read spies) but rest have to settle at his word without any overt symbols of retaliation.

So our noise, instead of enabling the Prime Minister actually gives him a safety route and acts as an escape valve for him to portray himself as a dove in front of international community.

I think we should not utter a word, let him make the harsh decisions and let him take ownership of his decisions. In our clamour for retaliation, he will feel that we will share in the glory of his decisions and he will not be the only one sitting pretty if it succeeds. But if something goes wrong, everyone will blame him, or past leadership. Our Noise will unwittingly help in making Modi petty, our stoic silence will help him firm his resolve, if he has one. But we have allow him that leadership space, since I feel he is genuine about doing certain things.

Habalji, Namaskar. You use the term "leaders" There is an irony to it.
When our polity has reached a stage, (and I AM NOT TAKING SIDES), where the opposition drags down the ruling Govt. so they cannot implement a plan which enhances their reputation, and which cries likes babies when they are paid back in the same coin.

But I digress. Let us remember the martyrs of the Parliament attack, of Kargil, of the continuing lack of basic stuff like bullet proof vests, of.... oh hell. I am emotional because today my feelings are with the families who have lost their loved ones. Of cold start and Operations Brasstacks.
Of sheer idiocy!

[ShauryaT]

Not giving in, but simply giving up

I do not have the words to console the anguish you feel. Can only say, let us hope and act in what we believe is right in whatever capacities we can.

[Picklu]

WTF? Looks like these cowardly rats didn't anticipate a serious fight on their hands and went to ground in different places and when cornered are now reacting.

They might have been waiting to ambush senior military officers and politicians visiting the site soon after the first "four" were taken care off. I can only guess that the four terrorists released the SP after carjacking his vehicle to spread a false impression they were the only ones. Indian security forces took that bait! The other cells were probably organized to sneak in and wait for afterwards when stand down happens and dignitaries take tour of the sites. They did that in Kashmir, albeit unplanned, and almost killed couple of generals in the process. This time it may have been the main goal.

This does appear more likely. Since at least one of them had the sense to create the booby trap in the dying moments and reap way more benefit than he would have got by throwing the grenade.

[shiv]

But I digress. Let us remember the martyrs of the Parliament attack, of Kargil, of the continuing lack of basic stuff like bullet proof vests, of.... oh hell. I am emotional because today my feelings are with the families who have lost their loved ones. Of cold start and Operations Brasstacks.
Of sheer idiocy!

Rajan at least one man has died of gunshot wounds to the chest. Surely a BO jacket could have saved him

[Gyan]

NSG would be good in static, hostage and police actions. But running, maneuvering power battles with Paki SF can only be handled by Ghatak or Paras. We need ATGMs, RPGs, HMGs, 120 mm mortars, armoured vehicles etc to counter such attacks which not really primary weapons of NSG

[SidSom]

SidSom, the mission may have been well planned but these jokers lost their nerve and hid. Its not part of some super plan IMHO. The pattern repeated in 26/11. Even though they have been trained enough & some may have been combat experienced (eg booby trapping bodies) the 26/11 incident also showed that when our troops entered the scene and put the pressure on, these guys refused to engage in constant combat and sought isolated portions of the hotels to hole up in.

Absolutely good point that these pigs fight like cowards, but I do believe that their refusal to engage is a plan. What is glaringly different this time is that we had multiple groups in the same site, and only one was active at one time (from what we know) the other hid until it was found. during 26/11 we knew the active groups and here we were not sure that there was a second one until they were combed out. Amazingly No civi casualties in an area so densely populated. Hats of to the forces.

[shiv]

Posting my own Tweet
https://twitter.com/bennedose/status/684023694008528897

My compliments to @NewsX for making a policy decision not to invite Paki "experts" to spout Paki Propagandu on Indian TV. Thanks

[Tejas.P]

Reports of the Gurdaspur SP who was carjacked giving a TV interview. It's baffling that he is allowed to talk to the media to present his case before his exact role and nature in this attack has not been determined. Has he been thoroughly debriefed by all relevant agencies police, IB,NIA,RAW, mil intelligence?? Why was he given a chance so early to speak to press before op is even over and intel has been gathered??

[Karan M]

^^

Why have we permitted ourselves to be subjected to Pakistan’s “thousand cut” policy? The answer perhaps lies in what veteran Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) officers have been hinting in their writings for some time; that sections of our polity are perhaps under ISI blackmail having used hawala, who have been advocating a soft approach or, should we say, a policy of drift. In addition, some of our media houses appear aligned or bribed by the ISI and this is not only about giving out explicit operational details during terror strikes that are of advantage to the Pakistani handlers during the operation and to the ISI in the long run.

http://www.firstpost.com/india/pathanko ... 70138.html

[Tamang]

What is the reason that our leaders develop cold feet over taking fierce action against Pak? How come they suddenly turn peaceniks? Baffles me!

[kulhari]

I dont know but something is not adding up for the premise that the attack was planned long ago: If yes Then why was SP used for ferrying terrorists (what is to be gained by porkis from exposing their link man). Surely the pigs realised the importance of beacon on car to know that occupants were some sort of high value (so that they can be used as hostage or atleast kill him)

The attack was planned at very short notice: most likely but releasing SP still does not addup. If true then this means that Desh has hurt the porkis badly. But 3 Mi25 is too little and we donot have financial / manufacturing base to give billions of dollars / or huge quantum of weapons, to AF army. So what is happening?

I cannot guess but based on what I have seen in last few days desh is certainly cooking something. Which sane / rational and emotional) PM talks about yoga during one of the biggest terror attacks of the day.

THe way I see it: This was expected and retribution for it is planned and perhaps already in motion. I cannot say when will it happen but my gut feeling is "The response is coming"

[BajKhedawal]

To all the fickle stalwarts breast beating "Rudali" style here, and passing snide remarks on 56" - I have only one thing to say to you, that guy is more gutsier than any one of the past PM's we EVER had (yes including that nymphomaniac).

You would all benefit greatly to take his advice on yoga, and get your mental bearing and some decorum; instead of taking up this Kejristyle rudalish spit and run.

[tsarkar]

SidSom,

Silent assets & multiple teams are a favourite Pakistani tactic since 90s.

In Kargil, during initial operations, only one set of Pakistani sangars would open fire on Indian. After the positions of these sangars had been fixed based on the fire coming from them + recce, and our troops would attack, they would be caught in murderous cross fire from previously silent and undetected Pakistani sangars. Many peaks & ridges captured would be lost again after these silent assets opened up. We finally got around this in later stages of that conflict by using saturation artillery fire and multi pronged attacks (up to 3-5 battalions attacking a single ridge/peak.

In Mumbai attacks, Karkhare, Kamte & Salaskar were killed by crossfire from silent asset. While Kasab opened fire, his partner stayed hidden & silent. When the policemen attacked him, they were flanked, enfiladed & killed by his partner who was silent and hidden until then.

Similar, the number of 10 attackers was confirmed only by the last days of the conflict. Initially it was thought only 2 men were there at the Taj instead of 4.

Unfortunately, while the institutional wisdom resides in RR & other Infantry Schools & Units, its quickly lost elsewhere.

One needs to be patient, like General S A Hasnain has been advising.

There is nothing one can do about lice in the woodwork unless they come out. These are sub-human wastrels on drugs whose handlers ensure on mobile phones that they're continuously dosed.

Remember how Somalis on khat took on the Americans in Mogadishu?

Question to all - how were the other 3 killed? One was killed by the gallant DSC guard. Did DSC/Garuds/NSG kill the other 3?

[abhijitm]

Watched Arun Jaitley press conf 60 seconds ago.
...

With Jaitley - total disappointment. No passion. No anger.

Some people take pride in staying calm and not give away via body language. But I understand the pain. In such situation a country needs a leader, not only to console but to emotionally connect with the citizens and give them hope. It is not the coincidence that in the event of national calamity, security the same politicians who in elections shout through their arse suddenly either disappear or give lame text book comments. It was the case with MMS, it is now Modi. There is a pattern and I don't believe it is a coincidence. Alas MMS never speaks but if Modi does MMS then something is wrong. It is possible that in such scenario powerful and experienced bureaucracy overwhelmingly influence the politicians and dictate the narrative.

[rajanb]

But I digress. Let us remember the martyrs of the Parliament attack, of Kargil, of the continuing lack of basic stuff like bullet proof vests, of.... oh hell. I am emotional because today my feelings are with the families who have lost their loved ones. Of cold start and Operations Brasstacks.
Of sheer idiocy!

Rajan at least one man has died of gunshot wounds to the chest. Surely a BO jacket could have saved him

Shades of Kargil. Coffins and bullet proof vests.

BTW, the post of yours, reflecting exactly my anguish on FB, is taking off. Time we got rid of the nexus of politicians we have currently. WE need and alternative

[sudeepj]

The key issue is the doctrine. India has been long following 'proportional response' and has eschewed offensive irregular warfare, where we make an issue of the attacks only after a significantly painful one. Wars and armed conflicts are unpredictable, and at the tactical level, even more so. Take for instance, the Afghan consulate attack. Because that attack was relatively unsuccessful, we have not seen that one even appear in the 'national consciousness' and there is much breast-beating because the Pathankot attack managed to create a media spectacle, even though it failed in its primary mission of damaging even a single high value asset! Had some high value assets been assassinated in the Afghan attack, that too would have seen much Had this attack been defeated at the gates as the attack on Avantipur was, http://www.rediff.com/news/2001/oct/22kash.htm , we (as in the media, forum, powers that be and the national consciousness) would have been , instead of making Pak pay for daring to attack us!

Today we likely do not have the capability to wage offensive irregular warfare on Pakistan. The powers that be understand this, as witnessed in the talks by our NSA before he became one. These capabilities take time to build up and operationalize. If people like Modi, Doval are appearing 'dovish', thats certainly not by choice! Its easy to be baat-bahadur on forums, very difficult to move, when you feel the hand of history on your shoulder.

**At such moments, the best we can do is to focus on the perfidy of the Pakistanis and not some operational mistakes by our own. They are trying their best in very trying circumstances.** If some of the people trying to manage this listened to what forum members are saying, they would likely hand over the gun/mike/whatever they are wielding and ask them to have a go at it!

Lets treat this as a matter of life-and-death as it is.

[VikramS]

Shukla just paying his dues to his masters.

He presumes the terrorists would not have attempted to take hostages or occupy critical buildings requiring close combat.

I am quite sure if they had not faced resistance they would have attempted to up the ante, instead of getting holed up.

There is no shortage of army men in that areas; however NSG with close combat type training need to be flown in.

[sudeepj]

To all the fickle stalwarts breast beating "Rudali" style here, and passing snide remarks on 56" - I have only one thing to say to you, that guy is more gutsier than any one of the past PM's we EVER had (yes including that nymphomaniac).

You would all benefit greatly to take his advice on yoga, and get your mental bearing and some decorum; instead of taking up this Kejristyle rudalish spit and run.

Hear Hear!! Disappointing to see long time forum members criticizing the leadership and officers at a time like this. The criticism is not constructive.

[Karan M]

The key issue is the doctrine. India has been long following 'proportional response' and has eschewed offensive irregular warfare, where we make an issue of the attacks only after a significantly painful one. Wars and armed conflicts are unpredictable, and at the tactical level, even more so. Take for instance, the Afghan consulate attack. Because that attack was relatively unsuccessful, we have not seen that one even appear in the 'national consciousness' and there is much breast-beating because the Pathankot attack managed to create a media spectacle, even though it failed in its primary mission of damaging even a single high value asset! Had some high value assets been assassinated in the Afghan attack, that too would have seen much Had this attack been defeated at the gates as the attack on Avantipur was, http://www.rediff.com/news/2001/oct/22kash.htm , we (as in the media, forum, powers that be and the national consciousness) would have been , instead of making Pak pay for daring to attack us!

Today we likely do not have the capability to wage offensive irregular warfare on Pakistan. The powers that be understand this, as witnessed in the talks by our NSA before he became one. These capabilities take time to build up and operationalize. If people like Modi, Doval are appearing 'dovish', thats certainly not by choice! Its easy to be baat-bahadur on forums, very difficult to move, when you feel the hand of history on your shoulder.

**At such moments, the best we can do is to focus on the perfidy of the Pakistanis and not some operational mistakes by our own. They are trying their best in very trying circumstances.** If some of the people trying to manage this listened to what forum members are saying, they would likely hand over the gun/mike/whatever they are wielding and ask them to have a go at it!

Lets treat this as a matter of life-and-death as it is.

+100

Easy to curse Doval, Modi etc - we all know the time taken to even build up basic things like WWR (18 months per one report), let alone covert ops.

[Sid]

It's day 4 with 5 piggies confirmed killed and sixth missing.

No group can survive for so long without being in numbers. IMHO they are working in a group of 2, where one group rests and other draws fire. Similar tactics were employed during prolonged ops like Mumbai.

If air base attacks in Pakiland and Afganistan are any indication, then they must have attacked in numbers not less then 12-16. Others must have retreated or trying to get back.

[Karan M]

To all the fickle stalwarts breast beating "Rudali" style here, and passing snide remarks on 56" - I have only one thing to say to you, that guy is more gutsier than any one of the past PM's we EVER had (yes including that nymphomaniac).

You would all benefit greatly to take his advice on yoga, and get your mental bearing and some decorum; instead of taking up this Kejristyle rudalish spit and run.

Hear Hear!! Disappointing to see long time forum members criticizing the leadership and officers at a time like this. The criticism is not constructive.

There are also individuals who disappeared for a long time, were busy attacking "56" "feku" etc elsewhere and such events give a good handle to bash the current GOI. The pattern is evident.

[manjgu]

kulhari ji....if ur words come true.i will host lunch for delhi BR members in Imperial hotel...

[rajanb]

Posting my own Tweet
https://twitter.com/bennedose/status/684023694008528897

My compliments to @NewsX for making a policy decision not to invite Paki "experts" to spout Paki Propagandu on Indian TV. Thanks

I second that. I never watch news channels. Balls to their TRPs

[vivek.rao]

http://www.firstpost.com/india/pathanko ... 70138.html

Why this strike at the IAF base? There could be multiple reasons. The Pakistani military may have been stung by the recent Modi-Nawaz hug at Lahore and wanted to immediately assert its supremacy overnight. It was more of a repeat of Musharraf backstabbing Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee after his bus trip to Lahore, with the Kargil intrusions. This time Army Chief Raheel Sharif has orchestrated the terror strike in Pathankot, for the involvement of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is implicit.
Next, Islamic State has been endeavouring to rekindle militancy in Punjab for the past five-six years, prelude to which has been the mass infusion of narcotics into Punjab, particularly in the youth and rural areas and establishing conduits on the Indian side. The well-oiled smuggling routes facilitate infiltration when required, as in the case of Gurdaspur terror attack and now Pathankot. The ease with which a vehicle was arranged from the Indian side using a Pakistani telephone indicates the nexus (which the drug mafia will deny).

Will Pakistan ever end the proxy war? The straight answer is no, unless the Pakistani army is ‘forced’ to do so. Unfortunately, both US and China continue to support the Pakistani military in their own national interests. US, which forced Pakistan to join the Global War On Terror (GWOT) under threat of “bombing it into stone age” can easily put enough pressure on Pakistan to end her proxy wars on India and Afghanistan, but does not do so. Even in the case of the Pathankot strike, where there is clear evidence of Pakistani handlers, US has made the routine perfunctory statement including that all countries in the region should cooperate in curbing

China, in any case is hand-in-glove with Pakistan even at the sub-conventional level against India. The Pakistani military holds all the cards in Pakistan and defines the country’s foreign and defence policies. Her private business-corporate empire was reportedly to the tune of US$ 20.7 billion way back in 2007. There is no way it will let go of such power and finances. Hence, it must continue to have confrontation with India and Afghanistan. That is why Musharraf sang: “Even if the Kashmir issue is resolved, jihad against India will continue.”

The recruitment base of the military and terrorist organisations are common and latter are also supported by cross-section of Pakistani administration and polity. More significantly in the current era, where even big powers are using proxies in conflict, Pakistani proxies are of use both to US and China for playing the Great Game.

Do we continue the Indo-Pak dialogue? This perhaps is the easiest to answer; perhaps we can continue the dialogue because nations talk even while at war. However, the strike at the Pathankot IAF base and simultaneous targeting of the Indian Consulate at Mazar-e-Sharif holds a clear message from the Pakistani military – you can talk as you like but we will continue the proxy war. So it is for the Indian government to decide.

The answer perhaps lies in what veteran Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) officers have been hinting in their writings for some time; that sections of our polity are perhaps under ISI blackmail having used hawala, who have been advocating a soft approach or, should we say, a policy of drift. In addition, some of our media houses appear aligned or bribed by the ISI and this is not only about giving out explicit operational details during terror strikes that are of advantage to the Pakistani handlers during the operation and to the ISI in the long run.

Where do we go from here? Many questions are being raised about our response to the Pathankot terror strike, which will be addressed once the operation ends. However, the bottom-line is that despite battling terror for decades India has failed to acknowledge that conventional force and diplomacy by itself is no match to sub-conventional war.

Both Pakistan and China have advanced sub-conventional capabilities that they are employing proactively against us while we have failed to do so. This is a great strategic asymmetry because of which we have been constantly at the receiving end; no forward movement despite similar terror strikes a decade back at Kaluchak, Tanda and elsewhere. There is urgent need to develop credible deterrence against the proxy wars waged against us, which will need to be demonstrated to establish the required credibility.

Very Depressing.

I hope Modji addresses the nation after they figure out all the plan.

We need a war footing strategy to defeat drug problem in Punjab.

Involve civilians,high profile people all over to start a war of drug issue

[Aditya G]

A couple of thoughts:

1. We are introspecting and doubting our own training and capabilities. We have to understand these jehadis are practically SF grade compared to the average kashmiri jehadi. If I may note their 'achievements':

- Infiltrate through guarded border undetected
- Procure motor transport behind enemy lines
- Navigate in alien land for 30+ Km to objective (I bet half of us would get lost on those roads)
- Take advantage of night and terrain
- Retain element of surprise despite enemy on lookout
- cause casualty in enemy ranks
- employ multiple tactics in relation to above, including suicide grennde
- engage specialist enemy troops in night and day

Time and again we have seen jehadi's honing theis skills and tactics in India's proving grounds. Recall IC814 and 26/11. This lot was clearly from the cream and was well trained, probably by SSG.

Every now and then we see a jehadi strike of similar calibre. Well trained, well fed, motivated and well armed. Is there a pattern?

2. Compared to 26/11, we cut down on reaction time. However there are lacunas in other areas:

- Bombay Police was first responders and engaged terrorists on all locations, albeit with mixed results
(Pathankot: Police failed to engage)

- Maha Home Secy dialled Navy for help soon enough. MARCOS came in and made immediate contact at primary site. Unfortunately this team was only 8 men strong and could not barricade the terrorists in any corner - and they were on unfamiliar ground.
(Pathankot: Garuds made contact on their own turf, but got casualties)

- NSG called in as escalation. They come in and MARCOS withdraw.
(Pathankot: Home Minister -> NSG tasked with locating the terrorists.)

- NSG IG JK Dutt was on site and in command of ops.
(Pathankot: multiple commanders across ministrys)

[sudeepj]

A couple of thoughts:

1. We are introspecting and doubting our own training and capabilities. We have to understand these jehadis are practically SF grade compared to the average kashmiri jehadi. If I may note their 'achievements':

- Infiltrate through guarded border undetected
- Procure motor transport behind enemy lines
- Navigate in alien land for 30+ Km to objective (I bet half of us would get lost on those roads)
- Take advantage of night and terrain
- Retain element of surprise despite enemy on lookout
- cause casualty in enemy ranks
- employ multiple tactics in relation to above, including suicide grennde
- engage specialist enemy troops in night and day

Time and again we have seen jehadi's honing theis skills and tactics in India's proving grounds. Recall IC814 and 26/11. This lot was clearly from the cream and was well trained, probably by SSG.

Every now and then we see a jehadi strike of similar calibre. Well trained, well fed, motivated and well armed. Is there a pattern?

2. Compared to 26/11, we cut down on reaction time. However there are lacunas in other areas:

- Bombay Police was first responders and engaged terrorists on all locations, albeit with mixed results
(Pathankot: Police failed to engage)

- Maha Home Secy dialled Navy for help soon enough. MARCOS came in and made immediate contact at primary site. Unfortunately this team was only 8 men strong and could not barricade the terrorists in any corner - and they were on unfamiliar ground.
(Pathankot: Garuds made contact on their own turf, but got casualties)

- NSG called in as escalation. They come in and MARCOS withdraw.
(Pathankot: Home Minister -> NSG tasked with locating the terrorists.)

- NSG IG JK Dutt was on site and in command of ops.
(Pathankot: multiple commanders across ministrys)

I have a slightly different take. Shut enough monkeys in a room with a type writer and they will eventually produce a Hamlet. Given the number of attacks and the planning that goes behind them, one or the other attacks will result in a spectacular success. Its impossible to fight a defensive irregular war in a country as large as India. If the pigs were shot down before they could do anything, they would eventually learn and shift to a softer target, such as an office Christmas party. The only thing that matters to them is pain among the disbelievers and attention from the media. If you give all your soldiers bullet proof jackets, they will move to armor piercing rounds. If you station tanks everywhere, they will bring an RPG.

The only solution is to adhere to Kshatriya dharm, and not decline the battle that is being offered. We must develop an offensive irregular warfare capability to inflict pain not on Pak populace, but on PakMil, ISI officers and Jihadis.

[rkirankr]

A question and not criticism. India , I have read invested lot in night vision capabilities. After 26/11, I read about many things which NSG supposed to have bought including incredibly some device in which you could look through the walls.

Now why those not being used here. Why stop Ops at night?

[ramana]

X-Posts...

Let the smoke and fog clear; till then restraint is advised. United Jihad Council claim does not seen credible for the following reason

1. The Kashmiri terror machine almost exclusively operates in the valley and never steps out
2. They kind of weapons carried and tactics deployed indicate a far more professional adversary. This is as per our dork media reports from "sources" but supported by HS Presser reference
3. The extent of operation suggests that the conspiracy was far too big to be done by UJC. It had to have local network to support. Extent of weapons suggests that the terror team was provided logistics support. Maybe a drop of heavy weapons was done prior or in parallel through drug network with or without local player's knowledge
4. Fact that aerial assets were engaged to ascertain whereabouts indicate that this mission had a specific target of hitting high profile air assets

All of the above indicate a level of planning and training that is beyond UJC or even JeM (this group has been groping in the dark for a while and LeT was the chosen ones). I suspect both are false flags to give deniability for a direct covert attack by Paki SSG or some such unit. If they had got through and destroyed a few aircraft, the real identity would have been leaked. Now the attempt is to cover up and blame it on first internal groups in India and if that does not stick lay it on UJC and say it was local Kashmiris and if that too fails lay it on Non-state actor in the shape of a near dormant JeM.

It looks like too early to come to conclusions but the hallmark of the usual tactical bravado and recklessness of PA brass is evident and the accompanying complete misreading of possible Indian response. The fifth column in India have been alerted to use this as a means to get at Ajit Doval as he is the most feared individual in Pakistan today.

It may have a lot to do with is happening in Baluchistan and Sindh and the fact that there is now an operational relationship in place on defence and intelligence sharing with Afghanistan. It could also be a pre-emptive strike to signal to MAD not to come after prized assets such as Hafiz Saeed or Dawood or Tiger or Lakhvi.

It is also clear that this was a response that has been planned well in advance and not linked to the PM's visit to Pakistan. It preceded that given the ever tightening space for the Pakistani Army that MAD doctrine was creating on them. They must have decided sometime post UAE visit to do something like this.

Looking back, the ISI and its masters might have put in motion several modules to do this activity and Gurdaspur was one such and this is the next. The fact that they were going after Punjab is to open a new front with drugs being used to soften the territory. MAD trio have their work cut out with a corrupt partner in a sensitive state, a completely compromised to foreign powers Opposition in the Congress and a sold out cabal of media and other Lutyens elite to do their bidding.

To make it worse there is a lot of lethargy that has been creeping into the Armed Forces as well with an over reliance on a bloated command structure that is also restrained by lack of resources and direction. The HM has been working hard on the para military structures instilling accountability, providing resources, improving discipline all of which have taken a beating for the last decade. They are still not on track.

This overall context must be pieced together here in this forum. I would recommend that we do that instead of getting over irritated by this statement or that or this talks or that. A nation state and a government has to move across a wide variety of options. What is more important is to see how national interests are being advanced and not so much if one move looks out of place.

I still maintain that in the trio of MAD that is supported by a fairly able and competent cabinet members such as Manohar Parrikar, Sushma Swaraj, Nirmala Seetharaman and the lot the overall strategic intent and direction will not let India down. Yes Pathankot has been to some extent a wake up call to them in that when it comes to Pakistan, there is no real chance of peace with that entity in the normal way of dispute resolution between nation states. But the larger question remains, Does this leadership have the clarity of thought in recognizing Pakistan and peace cannot co-exist, one has to go? Or are they still prisoners to the Twin Myths that has held Indian leadership in its thrall for more than six decades namely

1. A peaceful, stable united Pakistan is in the best interest of India
2. There is not alternative to talks with Pakistan as it is a nuclear neighbour

Only time will tell the answer to these questions. Just the usual ramble. Take it for what it is worth

Spurned and broken, Jaish was ISI’s trump card

New Delhi: As the ISI and Pak army escalated their attempts to target an Indian establishment outside J&K after PM Narendra Modi's stopover at Lahore, Jaish-e-Mohammed was not a surprise choice for them, say sources. At a time when movements of other groups like Lashkar-e--Toiba and Hafeez Saeed were being watched closely, Jaish proved to be ISI's trump card.

Not only was this a chance for the ageing outfit to prove themselves outside J&K, the outfit also had a personal agenda. Jaish's operations chief, Mufti Ashgar, was desperate to target India to avenge his brother's death, highly placed sources say. Ashgar's brother, Adil Pathan, abd his aide Chhota Burmi was gunned down by special operations group in south Kashmir mid October soon after which Ashgar had vowed to seek revenge, transcripts of conversations intercepted in the last two months, confirm.

After the killings of these two terrorists, Jaish had lost majority of its foothold in J&K and India. It was also under immense pressure from ISI and the Pak army to prove its worth. Sources say, the heads of the outfit viz Maulana Masood Azhar and Mufti Ashgar, were clearly instructed by ISI to execute a strike by first week of January.

Scores of intelligence sleuths have been tasked to re-analyze these conversations to understand what exactly transpired between ISI and Jaish -- two names which were presumed to be on different parallels in the past few years. ISI had literally withdrawn its support after Jaish aligned with al Qaida and even targeted Parvez Musharraf, twice. Musharraf had a close shave in both these attacks, sources recalled.

However, the outfit had been trying to mend bridges with ISI, of late, to co-exist. To prove that it was worth a second chance, Jaish had been trying to make its presence felt in J&K by carrying out multiple strikes this year. In one of the conversations, Azhar was apparently trying to reason with a major in ISI recalling how it had never failed the Pak army and the secret service right from the time it executed a strike at the Indian Parliament.

In the last week, there was a sudden surge in communications amongst Jaish members but J&K not Punjab was considered a possible target, sources say. Jaish members were apparently not willing to target Punjab and had instead offered to strike in Delhi. However, they were ready only when their objective was precisely briefed as the IAF base, its personnel and aircrafts.

Jaish's revival is being considered dangerous for Delhi and other metros. Unlike Lashkar and other outfits, Jaish's Fidayeens are far more organized, informed, equipped (e.g. they carry rations for days) and lethal. The agencies are hoping they can nip the outfit's fresh attempts in the bud.

Guys ops still on. Instead of rudaliing please post news reports. We have all the time in world to Monday Morning quarterback like presstitutes. I discount those for they have an agenda. Feedback is good but not back stabbing when the situation is bad.

[Anantha]

The way Govt ministers including PM are reacting in a laid back manner , it looks like a major crisis was averted. A full takeover of the Airforce base was probably planned, followed by a blow up. I have a feeling someone higher up in Pak leaked contours of that info to Doval/Modi resulting in full preparedness resulting in a minor operation as we see now.

[deejay]

sudeepj, with due respect, I agree with Aditya G's assessment here. This attack is SF grade. Just too many things happened to be called lucky.

[Singha]

there are probably more than one rodent in there. news is delayed as they dont want to repeat past mistake of declaring it over and then another one pops up.

but looking at the sheer effort that break-india forces have put in all these years with scant real movement on the ground, I feel the country is the Chosen One per the ancient prophesies and people will just end up frustrated yet again when their Nth tantri the mantri scheme deflates.

[Yagnasri]

We have to wait till this operation is over to see what is the full picture. Maybe this one is not an isolated and liked to Mazare Sharif attack ( and Kabul blasts?). So full plan takes some time to come out now. At best one or two days. It is possible that the response is being examined right now and will be taken once this set of attacks were stopped.

In case there is a response - I do think ( and hope) there will be a response, It will be disproportionate. That is what happened in the border firing/shellings earlier.

[Karan M]

And the turncoats are all showing their true colors. From jokers and paid MSM types

Here is the great Hartosh of Caravan

... retired personnel sent to detect possibly secondary intrusion on air force base, men set up for slaughter ...

So folks in the cooking house were men deliberately set up for slaughter.. this is what happens when idiots allow their political prejudice to overcome whatever limited appreciation they had (if they ever did) for the nation.

[sudeepj]

sudeepj, with due respect, I agree with Aditya G's assessment here. This attack is SF grade. Just too many things happened to be called lucky.

I assure you, not much respect is due. My rather simple point is to not over credit our attackers as being 'highly trained'. The attackers on PNS Mehran, now they were highly trained! Destroyed resources worth a quarter million dollars and vanished without a trace! Further, even those with little training (such as the Pak couple in SanB attacks) can cause major mayhem.

[kenop]

Posting here as it is parallel to the Pathankot attachk
NewsX reporting that in Indian Consulate attack one pig has been caught alive

[kenop]

Without comment:
CNN IBN reporting that India has provided input to Pakistan on Pathankot attack and they are assessing it.

Added:
India expects Pakistan to act on the input provided on JeM within 72 hours.

[member_23370]

If nothing happens in 72 hours then what? I hope TTP is provided enough ammo for a few more APS and mehran base attacks. The Afghan consulate attacker can be used to expose pakis (but at this stage every one already knows) and launch punitive strikes.

[kenop]

So, the unrelated minister of the union cabinet who briefed the media late afternoon did not use much of tough language expected of him from the aam janta.
Hitting out at Pakistan has been left to a more competent minister Nitin Gadkari. Does sound a bit better given the news of inputs shared with Pukistan along with a 72 hours ultimatum. One can do what one can do at any moment. The big hit should happen at the later time of our choosing not theirs of present.

[habal]

could these be the ISIS dudes Americans have lifted out of Ramadi ? If so, they can live for days on a high with captagon. Also would make some sense then, that the SP's driver didn't understand their language.

[kenop]

SP's friend was shown a while ago who understood their conversations. Maybe polyglot pigs.

NewsX reporting acknowledgement by Pak Foreign office of the evidence shared by India. Let it be another rounfd of dossiers to start with as long as the end is different from the last episode.