Pathankot AirForce base under attack

[Shankk]

I have a suspicion that this attack is to achieve combination of factor. Boosting morale, gauging response from new government, putting Modi in bind are obvious points but another aim to keep Saudis at bay. PakiSatan really does not want to get involved in middle east power struggle and particularly do not want o antagonize their neighbor Iran. Bad sharif meeting Saudi royal family tried to convey their compulsions and hoped to keep away from taking side but with growing tensions in the region Saudi will definitely ask return for their massive investments so far in the country and citing blood thirsty India is a very good way for pakis to avoid their responsibilities.

[shiv]

Just in: Fresh Firing and Explosions heard.

Meanwhile,People gather to pay respects to Lt.Col.Niranjan Kumar in BEL Grounds, Bengaluru.

I request folks here typing away from Bengaluru to just stop what they are doing and show your support by visiting the hero.

As long as there is no news of more terrorists, firing and explosions would IMO be par for the course. Combing parties searching dense undergrowth will lay on suppressing fire to allow someone to move ahead. Suspicious stuff will be blown up

[pushkar.bhat]

My take is that they are trying to get at least one of these boys alive and in a state to talk. Rest is a standard SOP now.

[Mihaylo]

I have a suspicion that this attack is to achieve combination of factor. Boosting morale, gauging response from new government, putting Modi in bind are obvious points but another aim to keep Saudis at bay. PakiSatan really does not want to get involved in middle east power struggle and particularly do not want o antagonize their neighbor Iran. Bad sharif meeting Saudi royal family tried to convey their compulsions and hoped to keep away from taking side but with growing tensions in the region Saudi will definitely ask return for their massive investments so far in the country and citing blood thirsty India is a very good way for pakis to avoid their responsibilities.

:roll:I have a suspicion that we are complicating a very simple concept here of Pakis being Pakis. It requires no trigger, catalyst, reaction, proaction, fuel, incite, provocation, opportunity, push, pressure or GUBO or any such other causes for Pakis to be Pakis.

Modi decided to hand cuff himself by visiting Pakistan. He deserves whatever 'bind' he is finding himself in. It is also an opportunity to unbind himself and keep it simple. I think he'd rather have Jaishanker exchange dosas than a show of swift military response.

-M

[Picklu]

I think the right attitude for India will be to resolve to continue the war forever and stop chasing a mythical peace

Agree, terrorism from pakistan is like sugar or cholesterol, won't go away - need to be managed effectively for all the time.

Talking to pakistan is like cleaning the toilet - not a pleasant task but need to be done periodically - terrorism(cholesterol) or not.

The idea is to continue to talk (no declaration or statement - absolutely no unilateral concession) but also take parallel unilateral action outside the ambit of talk to manage terrorism. Terrorism from pakistan is effectively unilateral and outside the ambit of talk anyway as PakGov won't recognize or control it and hence the the response of it should be similarly unilateral and outside while talk continues.

'Talk for talk AND kick for poke' should be the mantra.

Let me also be clear that this recommendation is for current govt only which has proved its 'kick for poke' mettle in border firing and Myanmar raid.

For UPA govt with 'kiss for poke' policy or at the most 'making face(via dossier) for poke' policy allows pak to escalate from poke to slap level hence 'talk for talk' isn't acceptable. We all know the difference of 'talk' part between sharm-el-sheikh vs ufa.

[SSridhar]

A few days back, when there were reports of desertions from LeT to IS, I said that that would be bad news for India because the strategy of the PA/ISI/LeT would be to mount an attack on India to capture the imagination of the jobless, rotting away LeT cadres and prevent them from seeking jihadi adventure with the IS.

I made two mistakes. One, I never took into account the JeM factor, having been thinking only about the LeT as JeM has been lying low for quite a long time now. It was precisely the reason why JeM should also have occurred in the mind. Traditionally, PA/ISI has always combined LeT & JeM cadres in attacks against us. JeM is equally vulnerable to desertions and have to employ therefore the same LeT strategy to retain its jihadists.

Secondly, the immediacy of the attack. I didn't expect the attack to materialize so quickly. Obviously, the news about desertions took time to filter out and the decision to stem the attrition would have been taken sufficiently earlier. The PA/ISI has always a ready list of plans for attacks as they have all been compiled as a ready reckoner with frequent updates wherever and whenever possible. It is relatively easy for them to launch an attack. All that takes time is to infiltrate the border.

The Deep State's resentment against talks catalyzed the actions.

[pratik]

I think the right attitude for India will be to resolve to continue the war forever and stop chasing a mythical peace

Agree, terrorism from pakistan is like sugar or cholesterol, won't go away - need to be managed effectively for all the time.

Talking to pakistan is like cleaning the toilet - not a pleasant task but need to be done periodically - terrorism(cholesterol) or not.

The idea is to continue to talk (no declaration or statement - absolutely no unilateral concession) but also take parallel unilateral action outside the ambit of talk to manage terrorism. Terrorism from pakistan is effectively unilateral and outside the ambit of talk anyway as PakGov won't recognize or control it and hence the the response of it should be similarly unilateral and outside while talk continues.

'Talk for talk AND kick for poke' should be the mantra.

Let me also be clear that this recommendation is for current govt only which has proved its 'kick for poke' mettle in border firing and Myanmar raid.

For UPA govt with 'kiss for poke' policy or at the most 'making face(via dossier) for poke' policy allows pak to escalate from poke to slap level hence 'talk for talk' isn't acceptable. We all know the difference of 'talk' part between sharm-el-sheikh vs ufa.

Lets have optimistic view that we will become an advance sophisticated state and destroy Pakistan along with their nuclear maal and then we will live peacefully. Given our size, money and mental power. We can achieve this.

[Karan M]

The one Pakistan policy that somewhat worked was PVN Raos who particularly followed the below policy. Until and unless we expand and develop this..

"Talk, talk, hit, hit".

Since 1997, India has been a pathetic victim of Pakistan's covert actions waged through different terrorist organisations. Pakistan has been using terrorism as a means of covert action against India since 1981. Between 1981 and 1997, India was retaliating in its own limited manner. The policy of covert retaliation was stopped in 1997 and has been totally discarded since then.

Between 1981 and 1997, the Prime Ministers in office followed a dual policy of "talk, talk, hit, hit" against Pakistan. They never fought shy of talking to Pakistani leaders and officials. At the same time, they never missed an opportunity to undermine the State of Pakistan covertly in retaliation against its covert actions against India.

Since 1997, our policy has been reduced to one of talk, talk and more talk with no retaliation even covertly. Our political leadership and large sections of our bureaucracy have no concept of the importance of covert action in an asymmetric proxy war. That is the tragedy of our country.

http://www.sify.com/news/talk-talk-hit- ... egdsi.html

[Sumeet]

Gujral gave away our deep assets that would help us in covert ops in Pukistan. Reestablishing this would take a long time. One should hope that it has at least started.

[Prem]

ABP News ‏@abpnewstv 17m17 minutes ago
Mortal remains of martyr Gursevak Singh reach Garnala village, Haryana . Watch: http://www.abplive.in/live-tv/

[Picklu]

The Deep State's resentment against talks catalyzed the actions.

Pak deep state may have resentment but GOI will have negative issues if talk is not happening. Something similar to our parliament where congress does halla-gulla but BJP gets flak.

[pushkar.bhat]

Gujral gave away our deep assets that would help us in covert ops in Pukistan. Reestablishing this would take a long time. One should hope that it has at least started.

Assets from Gujral's era would have retired by now. For heavens sake its been 25 year since they guy moved on and trust me if we have not been able to do anything to date then we are the only ones to blame. If BRF has been discussing this for so long what makes you think that the GoI has not acted on it.

[Picklu]

Gujral gave away our deep assets that would help us in covert ops in Pukistan. Reestablishing this would take a long time. One should hope that it has at least started.

17+ years IS a long time. IKG gone on mar'98.

[Picklu]

The one Pakistan policy that somewhat worked was PVN Raos who particularly followed the below policy. Until and unless we expand and develop this..

"Talk, talk, hit, hit".

Since 1997, India has been a pathetic victim of Pakistan's covert actions waged through different terrorist organisations. Pakistan has been using terrorism as a means of covert action against India since 1981. Between 1981 and 1997, India was retaliating in its own limited manner. The policy of covert retaliation was stopped in 1997 and has been totally discarded since then.

Between 1981 and 1997, the Prime Ministers in office followed a dual policy of "talk, talk, hit, hit" against Pakistan. They never fought shy of talking to Pakistani leaders and officials. At the same time, they never missed an opportunity to undermine the State of Pakistan covertly in retaliation against its covert actions against India.

Since 1997, our policy has been reduced to one of talk, talk and more talk with no retaliation even covertly. Our political leadership and large sections of our bureaucracy have no concept of the importance of covert action in an asymmetric proxy war. That is the tragedy of our country.

http://www.sify.com/news/talk-talk-hit- ... egdsi.html

Agree, however one thing to remember is 'talk for talk' part - it should not go to 'concession for talk' or worse 'surrender for talk'. PVNR, ABV et al maintained that, not so for IKG, MMS and such. Less said about 'kick for poke' part, the better

[sum]

Gujral gave away our deep assets that would help us in covert ops in Pukistan. Reestablishing this would take a long time. One should hope that it has at least started.

If 18 years isnt enough for it, god alone save us.

Edit: see that above post also mentions the same

[Shreeman]

shiv,

Been reading. Without distracting the conversation -- it would appear the australians have a lot to teach the rest of the world about managing vermin at a distance. Fascinating. Perhaps there are domestic developments too.

Re. IKG etc, once you lose the culture of operating a certain way its very hard to get it back.

As to possible motivation, it could be as simple as "just because we can" without any higher motivations related to saudi/yemen. There are no rocket scientists in charge of these vermin, and sadism is a terrible disease.

[chetak]

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 4840379392

Injured NSG jawan is taken to hospital in Pvt Car!!!Where is the ambulance and first aid??? Speaks volumes about local administration and Op Commander.

who is the op commander??, home ministry and punjab police don't report to the IA.

this is one right royal effup.

every dept seems to have it's own personal agenda and it's own axe to grind.

The IA has a GOC in the area and legitimately it is he who should be coordinating and controlling the ops including very specifically controlling the release of information and managing terse press briefings.

the NSG should never have been deployed. this is not their cup of tea.

Local infantry for perimeter control and special forces already available in the area should have been tasked for this.

where does the home secy fit in??

[Sumeet]

Pushkar, Karan, Sum and Picklu read this entire article (hope your BP does not boil).

Its from Oct 2013 but so relevant even today.

The Great Betrayal

“Spying is a secret business and not a pleasant one. No matter what someone has done, you have to protect him or her from outsiders. You can deal as harshly as you think fit with him or her inside the organisation. But to the outside world he or she must remain untouchable and, better yet, unaccountable and unknown” ─ Meir Amit, former Mossad chief.

Omerta is not just a word out of Mario Puzo. It is a pact of silence that exists within the exclusive club of men and women who wage war for their country in the shadows—the brotherhood of the intelligence community. It was cleaved apart last week when the long-standing political war between controversial former army chief General V K Singh and a section of the Army establishment in connivance with the government erupted again. The casualty was the Technical Support Division (TSD), one of India’s most clandestine and effective intelligence units, disbanded in July 2013 after General Bikram Singh took over as army chief in May 2012. Military Intelligence (MI) sources say that under severe interrogation to implicate General V K Singh in “anti-national operations,” some of its best officers who earned their stripes in Kashmir have become psychological wrecks. Their cover blown, facing hostile enquiry boards and fearing for the safety of their families, the former agents have written to Defence Minister A K Antony to provide them security. An excerpt from a letter by an officer’s wife notes that “For reasons best known to him probably because of his secretive nature of job he refuses to divulge organisational issues with me but has on numerous occasions in the last two months expressed death wish and suicidal thoughts due to organisational stress. He once did say that all this media hype has unnecessarily exposed him as a field operator. Therefore, he strongly believes that there is a chance of a threat to his life and to the life of his sources/informers who operate within inimical/terrorist organisations.” The Army’s response was to institute a court of enquiry against her to investigate the allegations. Ironically, she has not been summoned even once in spite of two sittings nor is she being discharged of the inquiry.



SPIES FEARED BY PAKISTAN

No doubt, the TSD woes would make Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) pop the champagne. The TSD’s job was counter-intelligence, covert-ops and surveillance that brought significant reverses to ISI. In the deceptive battlefield of Kashmir disguised by the serenity of ageless lakes and stately chinar trees, TSD’s secret soldiers have protected India’s interests. Army sources say it carried out retaliatory strikes deep within Pakistan reminding old timers in the spy business of the heady eighties when the ISI chief of the time was forced to call for an unprecedented secret palaver with India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) chief to discuss how hostilities could be scaled back. General Deepak Kapoor initiated the founding of TSD in the aftermath of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks to counter Pakistan terror groups. It had operational sanction of the Defence Minister, the National Security Advisor and top ministry officials. However, in July 2012, citing a spike in slush fund spending— from `49 crore in 2011-12 to `67 crore in 2010-11—the then Defence Secretary Sashikanth Sharma and current Army chief, General Bikram Singh asked the Director General Military Operations Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia to probe TSD’s activities and file a confidential report. Sharma became the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) in June 2013. In March 2013, copies of the handwritten report went to Sharma, the Vice chief, Director MI(FD) and the Joint Secretary (MoD). Coincidentally, the leaks began. However, the report had been submitted to the Ministry of Defence in March 2013, while the TSD itself had been disbanded in July 2013. “Why is the government not lodging an FIR under the Official Secrets Act?” asks a disillusioned former TSD operative.



THE MEDIA WEAPON

Army officers wonder whom the “leaks” benefit and what trouble lies ahead in Kashmir. “All gains made to ensure goodwill among the local population have been frittered away by one foolish act of some good-for-nothing officials in the government and Army,” rued a serving MI officer. He is doubtful if any of the allegations against General Singh would stick. Usually all intelligence exposes worldwide have been by whistleblowers, but with TSD, the government itself, helped by top echelons of the Army was responsible, says the officer. V K Singh’s enemies used a formidable weapon, the media. In July 2012, two months after his successor General Bikram Singh— whose antipathy towards the TSD is well known in military circles partly due to his belief that it conducted operations against him in the Valley—had taken over, Bhatia was asked to investigate “a sudden and unusual surge” in MI’s secret funds following a news report. By mid-2012 itself, it had become obvious that the TSD’s glory days were nearing an end. MI sources say the media was used to implicate the intelligence unit in the alleged bugging of Antony’s office in February 2012. Sharma asked Intelligence Bureau (IB) to launch a probe. The very fact that the civilian intelligence agency was roped in to inquire into an alleged covert army operation revealed which way the wind was blowing. Sections of the media kept the fusillade going against V K Singh. Reports alleged that he exploited TSD as “a personal Army” and gave J&K Agriculture Minister Ghulam Hassan Mir `1.19 crore to “topple” the Omar Abdullah government in January 2012. It also reported that `2.38 crore was given to an NGO to file a petition against General Bikram Singh, then Eastern Army Commander in a decade-old fake encounter case to prevent him from becoming Army chief. Both Mir and the NGO have denied reports. The irony that went unnoticed was that even if true, an intelligence unit would not conduct an operation against a state government without political approval. Strangely, the leak on the funds happened immediately after the General shared a stage with Narendra Modi in Haryana. As the Intelligence community watched in despair, the establishment pressed the attack further. The beleaguered general was forced to explain that the funding was for Sadbhavna (harmony).



SABOTAGING SECURITY

This was literally handing Kashmir politicians a big stick to beat the army with. As demands from Central and state ministers for a CBI probe grew louder, the anti-Singh lobby burst another media bombshell, saying the TSD had carried out nine covert operations abroad. The political slugfest now took an anti-national turn. For the first time in the history of Indian military intelligence, covert operations were being revealed. This threatened to embarrass India diplomatically, compromise foreign assets, and invite reprisals. Belatedly realising the implications, the government stepped in, but not before causing irreparable damage to gains India had made in Kashmir over the years. Jayadeva Ranade, former additional secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, says such leaks would compromise operations, as opponents would launch countermeasures to neutralise Indian assets cultivated over a period of time. “Intelligence units are considered our last resort for national security. If you continue hampering their effectiveness, you will realise they have lost their utility,” Ranade says. Retired Lieutenant General Prakash Katoch supports Ranade’s argument. He should know. Katoch is a former Special Forces officer. India’s Special Forces are tasked with carrying out specialist, and sometimes, clandestine operations behind enemy lines and also within Indian territory to destroy enemy assets, movable and immovable. “General V K Singh has been forced to respond in public. These issues deal with national security,” he says.



ESTABLISHMENT SUBVERSION

The present Army chief General Bikram Singh maintained a stoic silence, though it was his action of ordering a probe against TSD that stirred the Pandora’s box. A serving MI officer noted that the “leaks” would pose serious problems for the Army and the Indian government in J&K, as any politician or NGO talking pro-India would be branded as ones “who have sold themselves to the Indian Army”. He said it also posed a serious threat to democracy in the state, as the “leaks” questioned the 2011 elections to rural local bodies in the state as being influenced by the TSD. “If the (Bhatia) report had indicted General V K Singh or any other officer relating to TSD, the proper course would be to go for disciplinary proceedings. Or else the government ought to come clean,” says retired Brigadier V Mahalingam. “Instead, the government, or one of its senior officers chose to leak the whole or a part of the report to tarnish the General’s image.” A senior intelligence officer feels “the phase when intelligence agencies used to topple and build governments is long gone.”



POLITICAL CIRCUS

It is not just India’s military intelligence that is being jeopardised by the politics of reprisal. India’s intelligence community has for long been functioning under the shadow of partisan politics. On a scorching June morning, as the dapper Director of the Intelligence Bureau (DIB) Asif Ibrahim, was being driven to meet Shiv Shankar Menon, his mind was clouded over the future of his beloved agency. The CBI investigation into the Ishrat Jahan encounter had identified IB agents by name, a precedent that could jeopardise intelligence gathering and lives of operatives who have penetrated terror cells. The investigation and subsequent leaks exposed the blueprint of a highly covert IB terror operation involving payments to assets, logistics to moles and running interrogations in safe houses. It caused a political firestorm. The BJP accused the government of dragging the IB into the public domain to “fix” Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Several former chiefs raised concerns over the government’s move. Furious, the IB requested Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to intervene, threatening to stop producing actionable intelligence for persecuting its operative. As more details of the encounter hit the headlines, IB officers snapped all communication channels, bringing India’s security apparatus to a grinding halt. “It was a symbolic protest to remind the government that officers risking their lives to generate actionable intelligence cannot be crucified to exploit political interests,” an IB source says. The Ishrat case was the first instance in its history when intelligence dispatches were halted in protest against political plots. Earlier, in Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s time, the agency was asked to go slow on busting ISI espionage rings operating under diplomatic cover. On November 30, 1988, the IB, from a five star hotel, picked up senior ISI officer Brigadier Abbasi in New Delhi—doubling as a military attaché—as he was meeting his Indian contact. The government sharply rapped IB’s knuckles, asking it to restrict anti-Pak ops to just identifying and informing the Centre about ISI activities instead of arresting and interrogating Pak spies. A senior intelligence officer said the use of Intelligence agencies by the political establishment is nothing new, but dragging an officer through the mud as in the Ishrat Jahan encounter was very dangerous trend. “Since the early 1990s, the IB has penetrated several modules in Fatehjung and Murgikhana across the border and thwarted ISI’s terror attempts. But details of such operations are not talked about nor officers involved hounded. There are many things we do which are strictly not part of our duty to ensure that all information is properly elicited,” he adds.



COMPROMISING INTELLIGENCE

Former RAW officer R K Yadav says it is mostly middle level officers who cultivate sources to generate sensitive intelligence by risking their lives, particularly in a hostile country like Pakistan. He warns the government and VK Singh to be careful. “If they are exposed, intelligence gathering will be completely grounded. They are the foot soldiers, always willing to go beyond known territory to protect the nation’s security. It is no secret that the government is ploughing money into J&K and other insurgency-hit states but not as payoffs to ministers to topple governments but to cultivate assets. Although, no assets were exposed in the VK Singh controversy, it was an embarrassment to officers serving in the conflict zone,” Yadav adds.

Political masters have historically compromised Indian intelligence. In 1978, during a brief phone conversation with Pakistan ruler General Zia-ul-Haq, Indian prime minister Morarji Desai inadvertently mentioned that India was aware of Pakistan’s nuclear programme. The ruthless General immediately ordered RAW assets in Pakistan to be found and neutralised. Subsequently, Indian agents were eliminated as their helpless handlers watched. Yadav says whatever intelligence network was left in Pakistan after Zia’s bloody cleanup was further destroyed by I K Gujral when he was PM in 1997-98. “Gujral had a serious allergy to RAW and the first thing he did was to suspend all offensive ops within Pakistan. Even the IB was asked to go slow on Pakistani agents operating in India. In approximately 11 months, he systematically erased the organisation’s footprints in Pakistan to promote his peace doctrine,” Yadav reveals.

Interestingly, only few months after Gujral’s decision to suspend RAW’s Pak operation, the agency prevented a Pak-sponsored attack on his convoy in Jalandhar. A top secret A-category input from the RAW station in London had warned about five militants travelling to India to attack the prime minister’s convoy. Surveillance was mounted after their flight touched down at Delhi. A team of Indian intelligence agents apprehended the terrorists after they picked up their weapons from a pre-decided location in Punjab. Meanwhile, unhindered by any political influence, ISI continued to exploit the vacuum created by Indian politicians.

It successfully cultivated a strong network of agents in India and Nepal by targeting religious institutions. In a startling disclosure, a former IB officer confirmed that the ISI has infiltrated several institutions in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. He says an ISI agent was apprehended by the IB and Delhi Police in 1994 from UP but since he was politically connected, the PMO intervened; within few hours of his arrest, the politician’s followers attacked the police station where he was held and managed to rescue the Pakistani agent and his Indian contact. The same year when India’s Pakistan Counter Intelligence Unit was close to busting a module of ISI-trained operatives in West Bengal and Bihar, its officers were accused of harassing the minority community and ordered to stand down.



BETRAYAL AND CONSEQUENCES

The long arm of politics has damaged Indian intelligence operations abroad in some cases. A RAW officer who served during the P V Narasimha Rao regime recalls an incident of a colleague posted with the Indian Embassy in Tehran who was picked up by agents of VEVAK, the Iranian intelligence service despite having diplomatic immunity.

He was gathering intelligence on Kashmiri militants living at the religious centre at Qom, near Tehran. India chose not to take up the issue with Iran. The government woke up three days later, when RAW agents and their families threatened to stop work. Within hours of diplomatic efforts, the officer was released from a clandestine Iranian facility where third degree methods were used on him to garner information about RAW operations both in Tehran and the Middle East. He was also interrogated about the RAW setup in India. It was a serious setback to Indian intel operations in Iran; all secret missions were suspended. The officer was quietly transferred to New Delhi.

Sources say after the incident, most RAW officers in the Middle East and the Gulf region were transferred and all assets dismantled. “This was the reason we had no clue that the 1993 Mumbai bombers fleeing to the Gulf after the attacks. All our assets had been by then neutralised by the political establishment,” sources add.

However, the officer categorically says the Ishrat Jahan case and L’Affaire VK Singh may have embarrassed India’s intelligence agencies, but would not stop intelligence gathering operations. “In J&K and North-east, all intelligence activity is focused on insurgency, not on political parties. When we have an objective to achieve, there are so many ways to do it. There is always plan B, C, D ready, in case plan A backfires,” he elaborates.

But as the dirt flies and political conspiracies put national security in peril, the best-laid plans of India’s secret agents threaten to go awry.

[Karan M]

Gujral gave away our deep assets that would help us in covert ops in Pukistan. Reestablishing this would take a long time. One should hope that it has at least started.

Assets from Gujral's era would have retired by now. For heavens sake its been 25 year since they guy moved on and trust me if we have not been able to do anything to date then we are the only ones to blame. If BRF has been discussing this for so long what makes you think that the GoI has not acted on it.

Both Vajpayee and MMS were widely reported to have been laggards in this regard, covert ops. B Raman openly said this IIRC.
Vajpayee at least authorized cross border fire assaults.

[Karan M]

Sumeet, there is a reason I said (and continue to do so) that Gujral and MMS (especially latter) have been worst PMs India has ever had. Both were into appeasement politics and behaved more Pakjabi than the Paks themselves.

[Singha]

how serious would the INC be about ending the drug trade ?

Capt Amarinder Singh has today promised to end the drug issue in 4 weeks if given a chance to be CM again (and thrown in a word of praise for RaGa)

drug trade provides the corruption in local police, BSF , village leaders, smuggling logisitics on which JeM/LeT can piggyback. there must be atleast 30 large military bases in western front which can be similarly targeted within few hours of walk or drive from the border...so no need for sleeper cell logistics either....they can come in on suicide missions

[Shreeman]

singha,

look at the state of the western worlds war on drugs. short summary -- there is no cure. there is prevention. but once this seeps in, forget about ending/shutting down. you cant turn off tobacco or alcohol. this stuff? not a chance in hell or heaven.

doesnt matter which govermand comes in. the drug trade will only grow.

[Muppalla]

A few days back, when there were reports of desertions from LeT to IS, I said that that would be bad news for India because the strategy of the PA/ISI/LeT would be to mount an attack on India to capture the imagination of the jobless, rotting away LeT cadres and prevent them from seeking jihadi adventure with the IS.

I made two mistakes. One, I never took into account the JeM factor, having been thinking only about the LeT as JeM has been lying low for quite a long time now. It was precisely the reason why JeM should also have occurred in the mind. Traditionally, PA/ISI has always combined LeT & JeM cadres in attacks against us. JeM is equally vulnerable to desertions and have to employ therefore the same LeT strategy to retain its jihadists.

Secondly, the immediacy of the attack. I didn't expect the attack to materialize so quickly. Obviously, the news about desertions took time to filter out and the decision to stem the attrition would have been taken sufficiently earlier. The PA/ISI has always a ready list of plans for attacks as they have all been compiled as a ready reckoner with frequent updates wherever and whenever possible. It is relatively easy for them to launch an attack. All that takes time is to infiltrate the border.

The Deep State's resentment against talks catalyzed the actions.

That is where we can sense there is crisis in these folks. There is pressure from everywhere to relent but the pressure to react is far more than the pressure to relent. I think TSPA and ISI will unravel sometime very soon. They don't even have any more wherewithal to wait and react.

[chetak]

Gujral gave away our deep assets that would help us in covert ops in Pukistan. Reestablishing this would take a long time. One should hope that it has at least started.

Assets from Gujral's era would have retired by now. For heavens sake its been 25 year since they guy moved on and trust me if we have not been able to do anything to date then we are the only ones to blame. If BRF has been discussing this for so long what makes you think that the GoI has not acted on it.

the assets that IKG took out would have been nurtured and planted over two to three decades earlier.

who would have recruited more assets knowing that such assets could easily be burned by the very next creep who came along and how did IKG get his hands on the list of assets that were burned, did not the idiotic departmental bosses at that time not have the least sense of loyalty towards their assets??

the correct word for IKG's actions would be "traitorous". why are we pussy footing and not calling a spade a spade??

many deep cover assets would have been burned and all would have died very very painfully, cursing the name of the idiot who wantonly burned them.

these poor folks would have been actually more patriotic than the "leaders" grandstanding and preening for a few column inches. a pox on all their houses.

the congis did the very same to the TSG

[Sumeet]

Chetak read that article I posted above. Its relelvant to covert strike capabilities of India.

Yep Karan you are right. With respect to dealing with Pakistan, IG stands in her own league. MAD has chance to match or get closer or do something that can be considered close in current context. But lets see.

Karan read that article from Oct 2013 I posted above. It has good summary of what all we did.

[Gyan]

Regarding Pathankot attacks, it seems from News Reports, that we are looking at a heavily forested and Ravine area the size of Delhi for the airbase & adjoint areas required to be kept under surveillance. If we ask somebody, locate 2 persons in whole of Delhi, at night, in fog, in treacherous terrain, with heavy undergrowth, then can we imagine the difficulties? I think search operations can be Long drawn and sanitization operations even longer.

[Karan M]

Sumeet, I read it..That and the Sunday Guardian article which first broke the TSD story. The people who did what they did were hounded by MMS and his pliant puppets. That sort of stuff is what shows how compromised our leadership is. What a mess..

[Singha]

dont forget the gent who invented 'saffron terror' . MMS might have studiously ignored some things but got smeared with dung later, but this man escaped any blotch on his spotless white dhoti despite allegations of having links to many things.

I am not sure there is a "solution" to these kind of attacks given our vast asset holdings and infra setups. some amt of optimization wrt chain of command, comms networks can be done....even the mighty khan was hit by numerous attacks of this nature in his afghan bases - despite very clear easy to monitor terrain in comparison.

things like not having bomb disposal gear to check out dead rodents can be fixed by domestic industry making jugaad type gear derived from production robots.

[Karan M]

yeah, while india was getting hit by every islamist org worth a dime.. the veshti clad crook was busy trying to invent saffron terror and then made a dogs breakfast of the anti maoist ops (after grandiloquently advertising it in paid MSM months before)...

IMO, MMS was not studious ignorer but completely hand in glove with all this stuff. he pretty much admitted how he hated the opposition in a rare interview and LKA and co decided to run with the hares ..

the UPA gang was truly the most versatile bunch of crooks and fixers with to have ever got into power.. they are still waiting.

[Karan M]

>>things like not having bomb disposal gear to check out dead rodents can be fixed by domestic industry making jugaad type gear derived from production robots.

we already have bomb disposal gear like daksh which regular IA is using. if so. why not NSG?
its probably mix of usual best of best, endless tender stuff plus usual drip feed funding and babucracy mess which causes our disparate organizations to not even procure basics in coherent manner.

if your tender for BPJs has to be constantly reissued because of unrealistic SQRs - then there is a fundamental problem.
if babucracy prevents u from buying existing batteries for subs.. add another layer.
if wheeler dealers can be present at trials of paramil carbines and those carbines fail later.. add the next layer.

[pgbhat]

Relevant info for this thread.

Ajit Doval’s First Big Test as NSA Has Arrived

Instead, if Pakistan were to revert to bland denials even in the face of reasonably credible evidence, as they did about Ajmal Kasab, the prime accused in the 26/11, there will be a serious setback to the dialogue process. Going by my experience as the first leader of the India-Pakistan anti­-terror mechanism in 2006 – of which today’s NSA-level grouping is a clone at a higher level – the likelihood of a pro­-active response from Pakistan may be remote.

One inkling of that was the absence of the Pakistani National Security Adviser, Lt Gen Nasir Janjua from the Lahore gathering where the Indian NSA, Ajit Doval was present. The excuse that he did not have adequate notice is not credible because he would have had access to a helicopter. Moreover, it is unimaginable that Nawaz Sharif would not have kept the army in the loop about the imminent arrival of Modi. Perhaps Pakistan, or at least their army, didn’t want Janjua in Lahore as they wanted the focus not on terror but on the resumption of comprehensive bilateral dialogue – which the two foreign secretaries, both of whom were in Lahore, are tasked to do.

[johneeG]

Breaking news on TOI: Indian consulate in Afghan city Mazar-i-Sharif attacked, gunmen attempted to enter compound

Shiite. The ante has been upped further if this is true. Those Mi 25s to Afghan AF have really hurt.

A couple of things that should be kept in mind.

I read a news article somewhere that the helicopters India gifted to Afghanistan was from Pathankot. Also Indian consulate at Mazar-i-Sharif has been attacked today. Recall that previous indian consulate attack was traced back to ISI. This is a very clear op to attack India for India's actions in Afghanistan. It has nothing to do with recent uptick in relationship. I am afraid that next the Pakis are going to attack the Afghan parliament building (that India built).

We need some kind of leverage to deter this afghanistan nonsense that Pakis are upto.

This.

I think to understand what is happening, we need to see the timeline:
- India tries to get financial sanctions on Pakistan for its sponsoring 26/11. China blocks it. Ultimately, Russia, US, & China block it. And pressure India to bilaterally sort it out with Pakistan. Pakistan and China seem to have been successful in keep India out of Afghanistan. Afghanistan signs a pact to share intelligence with ISI. - Jun, 2015.
- India and Pakistan agree to talk on terrorism in Ufa, Russia. NSA meet on terrorism is scheduled. Pakistan tries to wriggle out of it. Gurdaspur terror attack follows. The idea of Gurdaspur attack seems to be to stop the NSA meet. - July, 2015.
- NSA meet is stalled when Pakistan doesn't show up. - Aug, 2015.
- sabre-rattling from both sides. Firing on LOC. Taliban takeover Kunduz, Afghanistan. - Sep, 2015.
- Janjua, a military man is appointed as NSA by Pakistan. Ostensibly, the heavy retaliation on LOC brought Pakistani army to its senses along with the pressure from global powers. Taliban retreat from Kunduz. (The retreat of Taliban from Kunduz seems to be connected to Indo-Pak in someway). PCB chief in India to get a cricket series. Shivsena protests. Doval visited Afghanistan. - Oct, 2015
- Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri in India to release his book on Kargil. Shiv sena protests by blackening the face of Kulkarni who was the organizer. Afghanistan NSA meets with Indian NSA Ajit Doval. India is back in Afghanistan. - Nov, 2015.
- Indo-Pak NSAs meet secretly in Bangkok. The talks are back on track and ostensibly Pakistani army is also onboard. - 6 Dec, 2015.
- Sushma Swaraj visits Pakistan for heart of Asia conference on the future of Afghanistan. - 9 Dec, 2015
- Taliban capture Sangin. - 21 Dec, 2015.
- Afghan forces regain Sangin with the help of NATO- 24 Dec, 2015.
- Indian PM visits Afghanistan to inaugurates Afghan Parliament built by India. India gifts Mi-25s to Afghanistan on this occasion. On the way back, Indian PM visits Pakistan's PM. 25 Dec, 2015.
- Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan. - 27 Dec, 2015.
- Attack on Indian air force base in Pathankot from where these Mi-25s were supposedly to be gifted to Afghanistan. - 2 Jan, 2015.
- Attack on Indian consulate in Mazar-e-Shareef in Afghanistan. - 3 Jan, 2015.

Most people including experts assumed that attack on Pathankot airbase was a pakistani army reaction to Indian PM's peace overtures to Pakistan.

But, what is not quite understood is: Why is there a need for Indian PM to visit Pakistan? Modi should have had good reasons to visit Pakistan. The talks were already on. So, there was no need for Modi to visit. The visit was mostly optics and yet it was a grave risk. Modi was taking a personal security risk apart from possible political ramifications. Even MMS who wanted peace with Pakistan a lot, didn't visit Pakistan and certainly not in an 'unscheduled' manner. What exactly was Modi doing when he decided to visit Pakistan?

In hindsight, it seems to me that Modi was doing the following:
Modi knew that Pakistan just didn't like Indian presence in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is seen as the strategic depth of Pakistan. Pakistan reacts in a paranoid fashion to even non-military presence of India in Afghanistan. So, when Modi decided to gift Mi-25s to Afghanistan, he knew it was going to get Pakistan quite paranoid. So, he followed it up by some 'peace overtures'. He was basically sugarcoating a bitter pill for Pakistan. In hindsight, he was quite successful in seizing the diplomatic space also apart from strategic depth.

The recent Indian agreement to talk with Pakistan seems to be based on two conditions:
- India will be part of Afghanistan's future.
- the talks will first focus on terrorism.

There was post in another thread from Paul:

IMO Kandahar loss during Mughal times, Afghanistan formation during post Mughal era and then Pakistan is all correlated from a geographical viewpoint. This was a trend when India was at its weakest and was stopped in 1965.

This trend intersected with the yearning of Ashrafs for a lebenstraum and led to formation of Pakistan. The Ashrafs provided the ideological basis for Pakistan but the prize was taken away from them by Ayub Khan who is a Pakhtunized Punjabi.

Afghan marauders Ghori, Mahmud, and Abdali are the role models for Pakis.

So IMO, if we frame Pakistan's formation on religious, ethnic, and geographical basis.

My opinion is from Geographical standpoint which I tend to focus on mostly, it is Afghanistan that makes Pakistan tick.

Link to post

It seems that Pakistani Army agrees with this assessment that Afghanistan is the key to Pakistan's existence. If India gains presence in Afghanistan, then it would be quite disastrous for Pakistan as a nation. 3 Mi-25s by themselves are not a big deal. But, the big deal is that India is now willing to give weapon systems to Afghanistan. If India gets military presence in Afghanistan, then Pakistan can be sandwiched. Further, India can use Afghanistan to support freedom movement in Balochistan.

So, Modi's gifting of Mi-25s to Afghanistan would have been the real punch. Modi seems to have tried to soften the blow by theatrics for Pakistani masses which further curbed the space for ISPR. The timeline also hints that perhaps Modi agreeing to talk to Pakistan may have an Afghanistan angle. The Afghan govt which was facing the Taliban in Kunduz may have requested that India agree to talks with Pak so that Pak can reign in the Taliban. By agreeing to talk with Pak(and perhaps promising a cricket series), India had gotten back into Afghanistan talks.

It seems Pakistan Army were very riled up with Modi's plan to gift Mi-25s and they want to draw a redline that India cannot enter Afghanistan. Modi's visit to Afghanistan seems to have riled up the Pakistani army in every way. And gifting Mi-25s seems to have been seen as opening a second front against Pakistan. And visit to Pakistan by Modi seems to have been seen as rubbing salt. So, it seems that this attack is mainly a reaction to India's involvement in Afghanistan(particularly the move to gift Mi-25s). Attacking an airforce base is definitely an escalation by Pakistan. Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan immediately after the visit of Indian PM and then following it up with attacks on Indian air force base and then further attack on Indian consulate in Afghanistan.

It seems to me that as soon as Pakistan feels like its losing Afghanistan, then its gut reaction is to destabilize or attack India(particularly Punjab and J&K) perhaps to gain some geographic space. In Oct 2001, when US invaded Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban. Pakistan's reaction to that setback of their puppet Taliban was to attack Indian parliament(using Jaish-e-Mohammad) in Dec, 2001. So, Pakistan seems to sponsor terror in India(particularly Punjab and J&K), when Pakistan feels that it is losing Afghanistan.

[Sabyasachi]

India to raise Pathankot attack issue with Pak today, wants action against Jaish-e-Mohammad within 72 hours: Sources

Can we call it ultimatum ?

[Yagnasri]

Is it real report or some useless media drama? Unless we are sure of such this was communicated, we can never speculate.

[LakshO]

Gujral gave away our deep assets that would help us in covert ops in Pukistan. Reestablishing this would take a long time. One should hope that it has at least started.

17+ years IS a long time. IKG gone on mar'98.

If we try to recruit fresh ones, between March 1998 and now, how many would sign up to help us? Please bear in mind that there were two PMs of India who gave away Indian assets within paki establishment: Morarji Desai and IKG . These assets risk everything and we had two worthies that either gave up identities or let them wither away

[Karan M]

LakshO, greed works wonders. Open the funding spigot and see what happens. The Baloch and MQM types are pretty much begging for moral and diplomatic support onlee. All we need to do is spread the largesse.
We are not talking of idealogical deep state assets which take years to cultivate or walk-ins. We are talking of existing freedome movements groaning under the yoke of Pakjabi brutality and also mercenaries.

[Raja Ram]

Reports quoting Govt sources claims that the terror group demonstrated even higher training than the terrorists involved in 26/11 that indicated clearly a professional training.

The operation is still on as there is no official announcement yet about closure. One thing is clear that there seems to be better coordination in media and communication management and a tightening of information flow.

What is also clear that this is not going to be wished away and that further response will be predicated on professional assessment of the attack, evidence collected on the ground and sifting of call records. If there is an established trail leading directly to Pakistan actors (state or non-state) talks can resume only based on compliance to demands. That seems to be the emerging direction as of now.

Technical questions remain in terms of action take on Intel provided; level of preparedness; response time, casualty prevention measures, adherence to SOP in clearing operations; information management, use of technology to name a few.

What I gather from chatter is that the MOD is likely to make a comprehensive review and forces too are expected to launch their own. This is just unsubstantiated chatter. Hope it is true though.

[schinnas]

Chetak read that article I posted above. Its relelvant to covert strike capabilities of India.

Yep Karan you are right. With respect to dealing with Pakistan, IG stands in her own league. MAD has chance to match or get closer or do something that can be considered close in current context. But lets see.

Karan read that article from Oct 2013 I posted above. It has good summary of what all we did.

When it comes to security matters (both internal and external security), India was punching above its weight during IG's time. IB and RAW capabilities were systematically strengthened by her. Kaoboys of RAW by B.V.Raman presents a glowing picture of IG. Anyways no one can say US arm twisted IG. She stood against the cunningness and aggression of Nixon and stared him down.

I have full faith in NaMo-Doval-Parikkar combo to deliver to the level of IG. Let us give them some tactical room here.

[chetak]

examples of our "free" press

Zakka Jacob ‏@Zakka_Jacob 4h4 hours ago
Why does it take us 3 days inside a Defence (not civilian) establishment to neutralize 2 terrorists? #PathankotAttack Day 3.
28 retweets 21 likes

SALAAR ‏@SalaarJUD 3h3 hours ago
SALAAR Retweeted India Today
#NSG - "Not So Good" Commandoes? #PathankotAttack SALAAR added,
Embedded image permalink
India Today @IndiaToday
#PathankotAttack: Highly trained commandos fail to kill all the terrorist
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/path ... 61655.html …
25 retweets 20 likes

[johneeG]

When it comes to security matters (both internal and external security), India was punching above its weight during IG's time. IB and RAW capabilities were systematically strengthened by her. Kaoboys of RAW by B.V.Raman presents a glowing picture of IG. Anyways no one can say US arm twisted IG. She stood against the cunningness and aggression of Nixon and stared him down.

I have full faith in NaMo-Doval-Parikkar combo to deliver to the level of IG. Let us give them some tactical room here.

It was soviet backing back then. Now, there is no backing, we are on our own mostly. A good opportunity to sandwich Pakistan was wasted from 1979 to 1989 when Soviets were in Afghanistan and when Pakistan was sponsoring Khalistani movement in full flow.