India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

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Comer
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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Comer » 05 Jan 2016 18:02

^^ It's the leaders call to go for a fight and the population follows their action. Has their been any indication of cowardice exhibited by population at large for no war effort ever in India?
Blame the leadership and not the people.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Philip » 05 Jan 2016 18:28

Tx Aditya for posting that quote.It is almost exactly what I've been saying all along. Handing over info to Pak is ludicrous! What did they do with the Kasab evidence? Nothing whatsoever.
Clearly,Mr.Modi is being ill-advised by babudom,and the leadership appears to be all at sea.The only "message" that we need to "hand over" to Pak is of the explosive kind.Nothing else works.

We are sorely unprepared right now for mil action,shortages of ammo,eqpt.etc,so for the moment strong diplomatic action is required.Look at the Saudis.They've broken off diplomatic relations with Iran on the excuse that their embassy was attacked! Other countries allied to them have followed them.Compare that with what India has done.F*ck all.
The immediate booting out fo the Paki envoy,,plus a number of their diplomats/ISI staffers,banning intervisitation by citizens,eco embargo,overflights cancelled,sporting ties snapped,should be the bare minimum to start with.If further attacks happen,closing down of the consulates and downgrading dpl ties.This will give us time to hasten mil efforts on a war footing,building up our mil capability as if we are at war already.DPSUs to work/production 24X7X365 days. Imprt oin an emergency basis S-400s,whatever missile defecnes,radars and other air-defence systems reqd. for the major cities.mil establishments. Get from Russia,Israel,and other reliable friends extra numbers of aircraft,naval eqpt.,missiles,ordnance,eqpt.,etc to wage a long war.

Unless we prepare for war right now,we will be taken by shock when Pak attacks. Pak is preparing to launch a surprise attack in this window of opportunity which will close within a few years as our re-equipment plans spurred on by the NDA-2 regime gathers momentum.Pak plans to make lightning advances spearheaded by these jihadi pigs who will tie down a goodly portion of our forces at our bases,etc.Pathankot is a dress rehearsal for their next act of folly,like Kargil.
If just 6-8 jihadis can cause so much confusion and chaos,imagine what sev. thousands of them will do once they infiltrate across the LOC/border?

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby nawabs » 05 Jan 2016 18:38

Comer wrote:^^ It's the leaders call to go for a fight and the population follows their action. Has their been any indication of cowardice exhibited by population at large for no war effort ever in India?
Blame the leadership and not the people.


True. Each and everyone, even people at my village were angry when our soldiers were decapitated some time back. Everyone is looking at what the present gov. is gonna do. And dossiers are not going to cut it. And though I know the various reasons which may tie down the gov. hands to various degrees, including the abuse of power and responsibilities by the previous gov. But has this gov. made any effort to inform the people about the same? You don't want to inform the people and then you complain when they make decisions based on incomplete info. On top of that, you allow the media to further muddy the water.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Jan 2016 18:55

PM is doing an excellent job of isolating TSP and forcing their sponsors (US) to go along with demand for actual action to close down the terrorist gangs. The strategy I see is to establish gubermand-gubermand direct chai-biskoot and treat the pigs as common criminals, not as military, war, jehad etc. IOW, strictly law enforcement problem.

Trouble is that neither history nor Indian reality is on PM's side. By Indian legal system standards, Pakistan has been moving with lightning speed against the terrorists.

But... I suspect that Shri Doval knows what he is doing, and what he is going to do.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Vikas » 05 Jan 2016 19:01

Or maybe unlike others, GoI takes Paki threat of using Nooks even at the slightest pretext very seriously and still has found no way to overcome this nook gauntlet thrown by Paki establishment.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby habal » 05 Jan 2016 19:05

no, this does not make it into calculus for any right-minded govt.
pakistan and it's dirty nukes have scared no country in it's neighbourhood, let alone India.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Aditya G » 05 Jan 2016 19:20

Deja Vu:

‘Army’s secret Division would have prevented Samba-like encounters’
MADHAV NALAPAT New Delhi | 28th Sep 2013

The Samba attack by Pakistan-based elements could have been avoided if the Technical Services Division (TSD) had not been shut down a year ago, claim senior military officers who wish to remain unnamed. Speaking to them, it becomes clear that the decision by incoming Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Bikram Singh to shut down the TSD of the Army immediately upon taking charge from General V.K. Singh a year ago has been greeted with dismay by his own officers, especially those on the frontline of Pakistan terror. These officers say that the scrapping of the TSD is a major reason why there has been a spurt in cross-border intrusions over the past year, and warn that unless the organisation gets re-established, counter-insurgency operations will suffer.

"The decision to finish off TSD was political and not military. It was done to show (former COAS) General V.K. Singh in a bad light," a senior officer commented, while another claimed that "the TSD enabled our boys to get prior information on the movements of terror groups, so that these were caught before sneaking into India". He claimed that "despite the effort by the ISI to create a Kashmir Intifada by motivating youngsters to pelt stones at security forces, the situation was quickly brought under control." An officer claimed that the TSD was able to use technical means to operate deep within Pakistan and find out the trajectories of terror plots against targets in India. "At a cost of just Rs 20-30 crore annually, the Army was able to finally reach the actual sources of terror operations and not just tackle the symptoms," a former officer claimed.

The 26/11 Mumbai terror attack of 2008 showed the need for the army to go beyond its focus on the Line of Control and run sources deep inside Pakistan. In March 2009, a meeting took place to discuss this need, and then COAS General Deepak Kapoor asked Military Intelligence to work on a position paper, which was approved by Defence Minister A.K. Antony soon after its submission in October. The proposed TSD was to function under the Director-General of Military Intelligence, who would audit its funds and give operational directives. However, although the proposal had been cleared, it was not implemented until General V.K. Singh took over as COAS in April 2010. Among the tasks of the new unit were to keep a watch on separatists and other pro-Pakistan elements, as well as identify and record the groups and individuals seeking to destabilise the Kashmir valley. The getting of sources from within Pakistan was a high priority. The 2010 Intifada, which was countered less by standard police procedure than by an "information war" (Infowar) pointing out the harm the movement was doing to the physical and financial well-being of residents of the valley. A senior officer then in J&K admitted that "some NGOs which promoted peace and conciliation were funded by the TSD, but such expenditure was nothing compared to ISI cash pouring into the valley".

Among the examples of Infowar carried out by the TSD were the securing of numerous videos showing the maltreatment of locals in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir by Pakistan army personnel, and the humiliation that locals had to daily endure, besides their economic hardship. "We showed the valley that life was hell on the other side, and this hurt the pro-Pakistan groups who painted a rosy picture of the other side," an officer claimed. His colleague claimed that "at least three dozen terror plots against targets in India were discovered because of the TSD, and foiled". He added that the (26 September 2013) Samba attack "showed the problem created by removing the TSD 'eye' from the armoury of the army". He added that the attack showed that "military intelligence needed to operate not only just across the LoC but deep within Pakistan to be effective". He warned that the "peace group (now running policy) had taken away from the army the right to a robust response to provocations after first draining it of Infowar capability". Another claimed that "these days, only officers who are more adept in cultivating superiors rather than in fighting get ahead" and warned that this would "affect the success of war operations, where courage and improvisation are key to victory".

The officers claimed to have no knowledge of any TSD connection with an NGO that filed a complaint against the present COAS, General Bikram Singh, over the 2001 Janglath Mandi encounter, in which a 70-year-old local resident (who seems to have been indigent) has been identified by the army as a dangerous militant, who shot and killed the commanding officer of a unit as well as injuring then Lt Gen Bikram Singh. The NGO claimed that the alleged militant was only a bystander and that he was killed in the crossfire between two units of the army, one of which mistook the other to be terrorists. A source close to the present COAS says that Gen Bikram Singh "is a very bold officer and just because a man is 70 years old, does not mean he cannot be a threat". The military has consistently taken Gen Bikram Singh's side of the story, even while Gen V.K. Singh was COAS, and has refused to conduct any fresh investigations into the encounter that left both the alleged terrorist as well as an army officer dead and the present COAS injured.

About news reports that Gen V.K. Singh snooped on officials and politicians using off-air interceptors ordered by Military Intelligence, a source pointed out that only one of the interceptors was in army use, "and that on the LoC and not Delhi". He said that the other vehicles were in the possession of the NTRO. When then Defence Secretary (and now Comptroller and Auditor General) Sashikant Sharma ordered an inquiry into all such matters in July 2012, the Board of Officers concluded that there was no evidence of any wrongdoing. Interestingly, the role of the officer who actually ordered the purchase of the off-air interceptors has never been probed. This has, however, not prevented a spate of reports from coming out about the TSD, thereby obscuring its utility as a low-budget instrument both for collection of information about hostile elements and for the conduct of Infowar in sensitive theatres.


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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby RoyG » 05 Jan 2016 19:55

The reason it was shut down was because they probably intercepted communications between ISI and their assets (drug dealers, hawala, etc) and Indian politicians. IB and R&AW should be combined and MI should be given a boost. This program seems to have performed rather well given the small budget and resources.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Karan M » 05 Jan 2016 20:44

They should just restart TSD and get it up and running. If the bad blood between current IA chief and predecessor is an issue, run it as a separate unit rolling upto the Cabinet Secretariat with inputs from NSA and PMO.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 05 Jan 2016 23:40

Bottomline is, India needs a sub-conventional offensive capability against Pakistan that can be used without scaring domestic and foreign capitalists that the conflict could damage their assets within India. Every attack needs to be paid back to:

(a) The actors that planned/executed those acts.
(b) If (a) is not possible, against softer targets such as clerics, propaganda artists, retired personnel, extended families and so on.

In the aftermath of Munich attacks, Israeli action was on the lines of (b) because they realized their inabilities to execute (a).

Economic warfare can only degrade the conventional capabilities of Pak and its not their conventional capabilities that can cause us any harm. So it can only be a 'very long term' measure.

As an additional measure tries to cut off the conventional arms pipeline to Pakistan. The Indian Parliament should hold hearings examining the evidence against Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism, specifically, the 26/11 and the latest attacks. These hearings should be open to media as much as possible. The outcome of the hearings should be sanctions against the Pakistani Armed forces. Specifically, any company that wants to sell arms to Pakistan shall not do any business with India for the next 25 years. 'Business' will be defined as act of selling spares also. The CEO of the company will have to submit himself to Indian jurisdiction and before selling anything to India, provide a security guarantee and provide an affidavit declaring that this firm would not do any business with the Pakis.

You will immediately see the Lockheed Martins, the BAEs, the dassaults, the DCNs of the world fall in line. Many of these western companies also have significant civilian market share and they will immediately bow out. For China, perhaps countrywide sanctions will have to be imposed. No more huawei junk if you want to sell the Pakis JF-Tatti.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Nikhil T » 06 Jan 2016 04:10

The defence sanctions above only work if
1) companies want to sell to TSP and, 2) TSP can afford them. I'm not sure either of this is true - and hence, these sanctions wouldn't work.

Second, TSP's major arms source is not companies but rather governments - such as US who sells them older but lethal equipment. We dont have a leverage over these governments to stop them from selling.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sum » 06 Jan 2016 04:16

Karan M wrote:They should just restart TSD and get it up and running. If the bad blood between current IA chief and predecessor is an issue, run it as a separate unit rolling upto the Cabinet Secretariat with inputs from NSA and PMO.

Am 400% sure this would have been one of the 1st files Doval and RM would have signed off when they assumed office....maybe not running as TSD but definitely in some other name.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 06 Jan 2016 05:22

Nikhil T wrote:The defence sanctions above only work if
1) companies want to sell to TSP and, 2) TSP can afford them. I'm not sure either of this is true - and hence, these sanctions wouldn't work.

Second, TSP's major arms source is not companies but rather governments - such as US who sells them older but lethal equipment. We dont have a leverage over these governments to stop them from selling.


In the case of United States, the FMS route is indeed a govt. to govt. transaction. But I think it'll be extremely difficult for a USG to force LM or Boeing to enter into a contract that bars it from any participation in a much larger market. The howls of protest will make ears ring in all of DC.

In any case, it will bar operators like DCN and Erieye which have entered into commercial sales.

Its India's prerogative to do business with whichever company we want to (as long as we are abiding by WTO rules). If we dont want to buy anything from LM/Boeing for the next 25 years, there isnt much these companies can do.

The one huge advantage India has over Pakistan is the legitimacy of its democracy and actions derived by its Parliament. Passing laws that operate within India, but make life very difficult for Pakistan is a key economic weapon and will be more potent in the coming years if Indian economy manages to hang onto its current trajectory. For instance, in the next 25 years, India can expect to have ~5% share in World Bank from its current 2.9%. This economic power must be made to bear on the costs to Pakis.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby devesh » 06 Jan 2016 05:49

our incessant fear of "capital assets" will be our undoing. we are not the first losers in history who were worried about "economic growth" in the face of a relentless enemy. right from Carthage down to all the catastrophic defeats faced by us in the last 1200 years, all of them were committed by forces of inferior economy on forces with significantly greater "economic influence". in every case, "economy first" has always been destroyed by "land and culture first".

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 06 Jan 2016 06:11

We need to get real. In a multiparty democracy, capital sits pretty much at the head of the table. You can see capitalists in each and every political party, even the ones who came to power promising to sic an all powerful no-appeal-no-daleel agent on crony capitalists. This is the case in virtually every multi party democracy where very large interests clash (ignore tiny, homogeneous countries). The arrangement gets upset only in case of major, very destructive upheavals. Given that we are not at such a stage yet, we need to think in real terms. Otherwise, itll be a case of 'zor kamti, gussa ghana' for many members.

*Taking historical examples from India-Pak wars, 48 was a time of tremendous upheaval and that war was thrust upon us. So was 65. In 71, we had a bit more choice, but at the time, the economy was controlled by the govt.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby SwamyG » 06 Jan 2016 08:27

Arnab (Times Now) and Rahul (India Today) are championing against Pakistan. The experts seem to agree that Pakistan betrayed India - Modi's outreach in Lahore. I think something that is happening is a slow build up of public support. Congress is forced to up the ante and show BJP in poor light. This gives Modi a free hand, to instrument India's retaliation in the time, place and type, and not many in media will be able to question or ask for track-2 diplomacy.

India will retaliate within six months.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby skaranam » 06 Jan 2016 09:30

SwamyG wrote:Arnab (Times Now) and Rahul (India Today) are championing against Pakistan. The experts seem to agree that Pakistan betrayed India - Modi's outreach in Lahore. I think something that is happening is a slow build up of public support. Congress is forced to up the ante and show BJP in poor light. This gives Modi a free hand, to instrument India's retaliation in the time, place and type, and not many in media will be able to question or ask for track-2 diplomacy.

India will retaliate within six months.


Whatever be the action, it need not be spectacular...but it should be visible, credible and be given wide coverage. It should increase the pride in the country among the non BRF populance (media management) also putting the lid on Pakistaniyat.

I have started circulating in my Whatsapp circles of NewsX move and expose Bdutt opportunism to sell her wares whatever is left that is unsold..

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sum » 06 Jan 2016 09:43

SwamyG wrote:Arnab (Times Now) and Rahul (India Today) are championing against Pakistan. The experts seem to agree that Pakistan betrayed India - Modi's outreach in Lahore. I think something that is happening is a slow build up of public support. Congress is forced to up the ante and show BJP in poor light. This gives Modi a free hand, to instrument India's retaliation in the time, place and type, and not many in media will be able to question or ask for track-2 diplomacy.

India will retaliate within six months.

If this govt and its thinking in past 1 year is a indication, there will be action ( and will be in not too distant future)

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Philip » 06 Jan 2016 09:43

First the mindset has to change,that poor Nawaz,Imran,whoever is the titular head of Pak ,has little to do with the Paki mil/ISI,etc. They will also say that they are victims of terror,blah,blah,and somehow these non-sate actors are misusing Paki territory,blah,blah. However,should India dare to cross over and deal with them it will be nuclear war! Effing crap.

Once the mindest has changed,then retaliatory measures covert,overt,diplomatic can be worked out and planned in detail. They can then be put in motion at the appropriate timing. The Paki uniformed scumbags will then get the message and it will be upto them to either back down or get royally "backfired"!

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby SwamyG » 06 Jan 2016 09:53

Either Sharif will do something symbolic, or India will cross the border by a distance that the military and government think is appropriate to signal intention. Or something else that the government cannot take credit publicly :rotfl:

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby partha » 06 Jan 2016 10:05

btw while Pathankot attack was in progress the first day, this happened :wink:
http://www.dawn.com/news/1230480
TTP claims IED attack on army truck near Islamabad-Peshawar Motorway toll plaza

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sum » 06 Jan 2016 10:55

^^ Eerie coincidence!!

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby member_20292 » 06 Jan 2016 11:04

sudeepj wrote:
Economic warfare can only degrade the conventional capabilities of Pak and its not their conventional capabilities that can cause us any harm. So it can only be a 'very long term' measure.

As an additional measure tries to cut off the conventional arms pipeline to Pakistan. The Indian Parliament should hold hearings examining the evidence against Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism, specifically, the 26/11 and the latest attacks. These hearings should be open to media as much as possible. The outcome of the hearings should be sanctions against the Pakistani Armed forces. Specifically, any company that wants to sell arms to Pakistan shall not do any business with India for the next 25 years. 'Business' will be defined as act of selling spares also. The CEO of the company will have to submit himself to Indian jurisdiction and before selling anything to India, provide a security guarantee and provide an affidavit declaring that this firm would not do any business with the Pakis.

You will immediately see the Lockheed Martins, the BAEs, the dassaults, the DCNs of the world fall in line. Many of these western companies also have significant civilian market share and they will immediately bow out. For China, perhaps countrywide sanctions will have to be imposed. No more huawei junk if you want to sell the Pakis JF-Tatti.


Very good post. Economic sanctions have to be applied to Pakistan in this precise manner.
They will subsist on their own internally produced stuff and be unable to import anything from abroad.

They will become another Cuba. There is no other way.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby BharadwajV » 06 Jan 2016 11:45

1)A strike on JNB(Ormara) to take out their 90Bs and damage RADAR installations beyond repair.
2)Then use an unmanned fishing vessel to lure the PNS Barber and kaboom it to the shallow depths of the Arabian Sea.
3)Harass Pakistanis with regular shelling on the disputed Durand Line (Maybe we use smart shells to play cruel knock knock jokes on forward outposts :twisted: )
4) Light up their encampments on the Saltoro with our 105mm Guns from atop.
5)Regular Friday after prayer specials would also be welcome.

*If only wishes were horses

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Philip » 06 Jan 2016 12:00

A simple message to Nawaz."Deal with it to our satisfaction,or we will deal with it and make you pay in blood many times over".

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Jan 2016 14:38

I would much prefer lulling the Pakis into believing we are sending them Dosas and catching them unawares.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby soumik » 06 Jan 2016 15:20

Complete Economic Warfare should be undertaken. In Bengali Village Parlance "AK Ghora".
1)Any Company operating in Pakistan will not be granted a business license in India.
2)PIA will not be allowed to Overfly India.
3)Ships originating at Pakistani Ports will not be granted Docking Rights
4)No Medical Tourism Visas/otherwise
5)Blanket Ban on telecast of Media involving Pakistan.
6)No Indian Exports to or Imports from Pakistan.
7)Get Ambani to drill sideways and suck up that Sindh Gas Deposit they so Love.
8)Capture Pakistani Fishing boats at will

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby abhijitm » 06 Jan 2016 19:06

Another attack on paki airbase and at least half dozen solahs meet 72. That will do for now.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Jan 2016 19:20

At some point Indians have to decide that the cost of achieving a State of Pakistanlessness is worth the very high price to be paid. Can't go on with these damn terrorists attacking every couple of months or weeks.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby prahaar » 06 Jan 2016 20:13

General Indian government response and buddhijivi public thinking reminds me of Star Trek episode of "A Taste of Armageddon", or the well known MB story of Bakasur. Let us not get into a messy war manage losses to a "tolerable" level, while the rest of the country progresses. It is difficult to quantify and convince based on numbers that this is not a sustainable solution.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 06 Jan 2016 20:59

UlanBatori wrote:At some point Indians have to decide that the cost of achieving a State of Pakistanlessness is worth the very high price to be paid. Can't go on with these damn terrorists attacking every couple of months or weeks.


Who pays this price, you and I, who are sitting in the US?

A one off raid that does nothing to degrade the potential of the Pak forces is something that will likely be paid back in kind. We are just as vulnerable to low level intrusions/missiles/what have you. What if in response to a token air raid Paks launch a 'token' of their own? Do we escalate then? Or suffer in the psychological war? Lets say, we escalate. Matter goes to security council. Who wins there?

Somehow, several thousand soldiers dead and economy that is in shambles does not sound like a win to me. Even Op Parakram, which was just a mobilization, not a shooting war, cost us several hundred lives. The accident while mining the border in Rajasthan alone cost 100+ lives.. A shooting match will likely cost many times over.

The levity with which some talk of full scale hostilities is deeply disappointing. Every strategy book will tell you, once the sword arm is unleashed, it must be to kill, not to scratch or poke your opponent, but that is exactly what is being proposed.

Exactly what will 6 Sukhois tossing a few thousand pounders achieve? This is Paki thinking.. They lost all wars, but think that a raid by amphetamine crazed jihadis is a 'win'.

Our only realistic option is to develop an offensive sub-conventional war capacity to reach out and touch the generals, jihadi leaders, journalists and politicians who are waging this war on us. Virtually every Indian politician is behind a cordon of Z+, but Sheikh Rasheed walks around freely.. How come?

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby deejay » 06 Jan 2016 21:06

sudeepj wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:At some point Indians have to decide that the cost of achieving a State of Pakistanlessness is worth the very high price to be paid. Can't go on with these damn terrorists attacking every couple of months or weeks.


Who pays this price, you and I, who are sitting in the US?

A one off raid that does nothing to degrade the potential of the Pak forces is something that will likely be paid back in kind. We are just as vulnerable to low level intrusions/missiles/what have you. What if in response to a token air raid Paks launch a 'token' of their own? Do we escalate then? Or suffer in the psychological war? Lets say, we escalate. Matter goes to security council. Who wins there?

Somehow, several thousand soldiers dead and economy that is in shambles does not sound like a win to me. Even Op Parakram, which was just a mobilization, not a shooting war, cost us several hundred lives. The mining accident in Rajasthan alone cost 100+ lives.. A shooting match will likely cost many times over.

The levity with which some talk of full scale hostilities is deeply disappointing. Every strategy book will tell you, once the sword arm is unleashed, it must be to kill, not to scratch or poke your opponent, but that is exactly what is being proposed.

Exactly what will 6 Sukhois tossing a few thousand pounders achieve? This is Paki thinking.. They lost all wars, but think that a raid by amphetamine crazed jihadis is a 'win'.

Our only realistic option is to develop an offensive sub-conventional war capacity to reach out and touch the generals, jihadi leaders, journalists and politicians who are waging this war on us. Virtually every Indian politician is behind a cordon of Z+, but Sheikh Rasheed walks around freely.. How come?


No sudeepj, we pay. Those sitting in India.

IMO, our folks are dying anyway - 30 yrs+ now. Thousands dead. What about widows, orphans, cripples? What about the cost of large scale military deployment in Indian territory? What about economic losses due to this constant state of alert?

There is a cost of not fighting? War - why is an Indian response only a war? Pakis have attacked us so many times and there has been no war. Why will our retaliation lead to war?

How about publicly going after Pakis in Balochistan and Gilgit Baltistan like US does in Syria? Should not the pain be for Pakistan?

Economy - pasia - paisa aur paisa - kitna paisa? Any nos?

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Chinmayanand » 06 Jan 2016 21:10

Philip wrote:A simple message to Nawaz."Deal with it to our satisfaction,or we will deal with it and make you pay in blood many times over".


Nawaz will grin & say ,"Please , go ahead and tame the Army & ISI."

Goi should be grateful that pakis keep denying their hand at cross-border terror. Now , they have moved onto non-state actors. Few years down the line , they will say ," Yes , we did it. So what, you did same in 1971. Do what you can."

IAF will rue over lack of 7th gen planes. IA will rue over lack of Armatas and politicos will talk of how India is about to take over China economically. Let the economy grow.

Paki state has a will to fight to till grass in mouth, Indian state lacks the stomach to fight and that's about it.

Pak is waging war on all fronts, fake currency, running drugs , brainwashing desi peacefuls, buying off elite in media,forces & politics, helping insurgencies. What is the Indian reply ? Dossiers . Congress sent it to US and BJP has sent it to pak. Thats the difference.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 06 Jan 2016 21:24

deejay wrote:
sudeepj wrote:Who pays this price, you and I, who are sitting in the US?

A one off raid that does nothing to degrade the potential of the Pak forces is something that will likely be paid back in kind. We are just as vulnerable to low level intrusions/missiles/what have you. What if in response to a token air raid Paks launch a 'token' of their own? Do we escalate then? Or suffer in the psychological war? Lets say, we escalate. Matter goes to security council. Who wins there?

Somehow, several thousand soldiers dead and economy that is in shambles does not sound like a win to me. Even Op Parakram, which was just a mobilization, not a shooting war, cost us several hundred lives. The mining accident in Rajasthan alone cost 100+ lives.. A shooting match will likely cost many times over.

The levity with which some talk of full scale hostilities is deeply disappointing. Every strategy book will tell you, once the sword arm is unleashed, it must be to kill, not to scratch or poke your opponent, but that is exactly what is being proposed.

Exactly what will 6 Sukhois tossing a few thousand pounders achieve? This is Paki thinking.. They lost all wars, but think that a raid by amphetamine crazed jihadis is a 'win'.

Our only realistic option is to develop an offensive sub-conventional war capacity to reach out and touch the generals, jihadi leaders, journalists and politicians who are waging this war on us. Virtually every Indian politician is behind a cordon of Z+, but Sheikh Rasheed walks around freely.. How come?


No sudeepj, we pay. Those sitting in India.

IMO, our folks are dying anyway - 30 yrs+ now. Thousands dead. What about widows, orphans, cripples? What about the cost of large scale military deployment in Indian territory? What about economic losses due to this constant state of alert?


The number of our dead due to Pak terrorism is way down into the low 100+ number. If it goes up to thousands per year, I would agree that we are getting close to the threshold for the cost paid in a limited war.

There is a cost of not fighting? War - why is an Indian response only a war? Pakis have attacked us so many times and there has been no war. Why will our retaliation lead to war?


Lets game this out. My point is that we are as vulnerable to an air strike as they are. If we send a couple dozen bombs into Sargodha, Pak armed forces will completely lose their legitimacy if they dont respond. Therefore, there will be a response of some kind, most likely missiles (they have to guard their assets for a full scale war). We dont have a deployed ABM yet, so these missiles will land. Next Paks will immediately rattle their nuclear sabre. What is the next move our leadership makes?
(a) Do nothing? lose the psych war, lose face (and btw. also the next election. Vajapayee and Jaswant Singh had to pay a huge price for their rhetoric, that they were unable to translate into action. We still hear taunts about Op Parakram, even though we achieved a lot through that mobilization!)
(b) Escalate? now you are climbing the escalatory ladder. Where do you stop?

How about publicly going after Pakis in Balochistan and Gilgit Baltistan like US does in Syria? Should not the pain be for Pakistan?


Absolutely there needs to be pain. I am saying, the way to inflict this pain is not to use the IAF/Navy/Armed forces in an offensive role, but to use them as shields behind which we wage irregular warfare. Pay the Paks back in the same coin.

Economy - pasia - paisa aur paisa - kitna paisa? Any nos?


Current nominal GDP in PPP terms = $8 Trillion, ($2.x Trillion in nominal). Growth rate = 7%. Say it comes down to 5%. 2% of $8T = $160B PPP ($40B nominal). Cost to upgrade our capabilities means an increase in defense budget to 4% of GDP from the current 2%, i.e. our defense budget will double. This is simply common sense as an economy that spends 2% on defense does not go to war, you need to spend much more to reach a ready state. So another $40B nominal in shifts in our budget priorities from welfare to defense. To spend this much to get rid of Pak is like trying to put a nada in your pajama using a sword.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby deejay » 06 Jan 2016 21:31

Seriously - you are arguing that unless it is 1000 dead soldiers per annum - do not retalliate?

And why Sargodha example? Why not Muridke?

Isn't today's economy double of 1999 or somewhere close? What is % of GDP spend for an economy that goes to war?

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby member_20292 » 06 Jan 2016 21:45

sudeepj wrote:Absolutely there needs to be pain. I am saying, the way to inflict this pain is not to use the IAF/Navy/Armed forces in an offensive role, but to use them as shields behind which we wage irregular warfare. Pay the Paks back in the same coin.

To spend this much to get rid of Pak is like trying to put a nada in your pajama using a sword.


1. Irregular warfare is already being done by India. This should definitely be stepped up.

2. Sword and naadas - it is cheaper to go to war TODAY, than to go to war with Pakistan in 2025. It is definitely going to be a thorn in our sides, like it has been for a lot of time. The way to deal with it is to reduce it and to do it cheaply. 1971 was a one off. Balochistan and Sindh are contiguous entities to the main geography of Pakjab. Better to fund their insurgencies today more.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby ManjaM » 06 Jan 2016 21:47

The solution to this issue is not to strengthen the civilian govt. It might be a better option to destabilize Nawaz Sharif and when the inevitable coup happens, he should be given asylum in India along with his government in exile. It will give a good reason for more direct military action without the goodsharif-bad sharif conundrum. Once the good sharif is running his govt in exile in India, every person in Pak is badsharif and be treated as such.
I am not convinced about doing to Pak what is being done to us. There is not enough unconventional action that can be done to Pak that it has not already seen. Heck Pakis are doing that to Pak already. What is another pinprick worth.
Last edited by ManjaM on 06 Jan 2016 21:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 06 Jan 2016 21:50

deejay wrote:Seriously - you are arguing that unless it is 1000 dead soldiers per annum - do not retalliate?


Uhh no. Read the whole thing again. The argument is that an overt conventional response deep within Pak will likely cost us more than it can achieve. As evidence I cite the number of security personnel deaths in Op Pkm (~800). (Compare with the number of Security forces deaths in 2015 in Kashmir at less than 100)

deejay wrote:And why Sargodha example? Why not Muridke?


The same argument applies to Muridke. If Pak forces do not react, they lose any legitimacy to rule and also to eat up the budget that they do. Ergo, they will react. (On the other hand, if you are in a position to make sure that their retaliation cant get off the ground, this may be a good way to make them lose legitimacy. IMHO, we are not there yet.)

deejay wrote:Isn't today's economy double of 1999 or somewhere close? What is % of GDP spend for an economy that goes to war?


Yes, but there was a post Kargil and post Parakram economic slow down that can be attributed at least partially to the war like conditions then. You can also recall that the def. budget grew by double digit percentages for over 5 years in that time frame.

Edit: My motivation in posting this is not to prevent anyone from going on imaginary wars, but to cast some light on the necessary cost-benefits analysis that any leadership/bureaucracy must do before it takes action. This overly jingoistic, innumerate thought process is exactly how we convert even success stories like Op Parakram into debacles and defeats for ourselves. The question we repeatedly pose is: "Why arent we doing SOMETHING to Pakis?", and conclude it must be because either the leadership is incompetent or they are cowards or even worse. But this is one of the purposes of these attacks.. to undermine the faith Indians have in their leadership and their state. I leave it to you to reach a conclusion about how desirable this line of thinking is.

Any leadership would have to look at these same numbers. No leadership in a democracy would go to war unless it was absolutely sure that it was going to win and win at a reasonable cost.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 06 Jan 2016 22:05

mahadevbhu wrote:
sudeepj wrote:Absolutely there needs to be pain. I am saying, the way to inflict this pain is not to use the IAF/Navy/Armed forces in an offensive role, but to use them as shields behind which we wage irregular warfare. Pay the Paks back in the same coin.

To spend this much to get rid of Pak is like trying to put a nada in your pajama using a sword.


1. Irregular warfare is already being done by India. This should definitely be stepped up.

2. Sword and naadas - it is cheaper to go to war TODAY, than to go to war with Pakistan in 2025. It is definitely going to be a thorn in our sides, like it has been for a lot of time. The way to deal with it is to reduce it and to do it cheaply. 1971 was a one off. Balochistan and Sindh are contiguous entities to the main geography of Pakjab. Better to fund their insurgencies today more.


Disagree.. Fighting a limited war with Pak is going to be far cheaper when we can guarantee by our technological superiority that not many of Pak attacks will reach Indian civilians and even soldiers. I dont think we will ever fight an "aar paar ki ladai", when nukes come into play, with Pak. At best it will be a 65 redux with Indians occupying the outskirts of Lahore and Sialkote and there it will stop.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby member_23370 » 06 Jan 2016 22:14

There will be no pakistan in 2020 period, it would be pakjabistan and the 3 neighboring countries of pakhtunistan, Balochistan and Sindhudesh.


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