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India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

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Aditya G
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India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist strikes

Postby Aditya G » 03 Jan 2016 18:23

We have seen this pattern previously. Every time a spectacular terror strike happens, there is outpouring of anger with suggestions that we need to "do something".

Can we on BRF crystallize the options India has?

Why do we need options? ref to this pertinent tweet from Gaurav Sawant.

GAURAV C SAWANT ‏@gauravcsawant 1h1 hour ago
Pak guns fell silent on LoC when India gave `befitting' reply at LoC & IB. Befitting reply to terror must, for talks to be successful

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Avinash R » 03 Jan 2016 18:52

Bakistan's soft underbelly is Balochistan which is its largest province and supplier of precious natural resources like gas from Sui.

Allow Balochi freedom fighters to acquire some much needed explosive long range hardware to light up the gas fields.

And finally dont forget to do an equal equal of saying we condemn the attack.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby VKumar » 03 Jan 2016 19:32

Balochistan, Northern territories, sind, pakhtuns, afghans, shias, Let, Jem, support them all to destroy each other.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby A Sharma » 03 Jan 2016 19:44

Response should be overt and should be on military targets or their families. Everything else listed above should be long term goals to support Baluchistan etc

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Supratik » 03 Jan 2016 19:58

We are missing someone like Indira Gandhi. Small retaliation could be cross-border strikes and unnamed strikes within Pakistan. Moderate retaliation could be to flare up the LOC and grab territory e.g. say that Pakistan launched an attack on Siachen and use that as an excuse to grab all the glaciers to the west of Saltoro ridge. Major retaliation will be balkanization and total destabilization of Pak through Balochistan and Pashtunistan, followed by separation of Karachi through MQM, Sindh be encouraged to go its own way perhaps even integrate with India, wresting POK and NA from rump Punjab, which leaves a Punjabi state that can be coerced to submission. Last strategy will require the entire might of the Indian state superpower scale and the possible fallout internationally which requires the balls of IG. Main opposition will come from nuke threats and western mainly American opposition. But first two are doable IMO. Doing nothing will invite more attacks with Modi looking like MMS. They basically took one year to game Modi. The kiss with Sharif for selfies send the wrong message that 56 inch info may not be correct.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby member_28990 » 03 Jan 2016 20:00

We have THE best weapon system to carry out surgical strikes - the Brahmos. Hit them hard, first with the missiles and then with a propaganda blitz. The only way forward is to call out Pak bluff that they have a low threshold nuclear umbrella.

Ofcourse, going by the endemic air of cowardice present in Delhi political-business circle and a fifth column media, this is a tall order indeed.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Avinash R » 03 Jan 2016 20:05

^birather missiles are weapons of war.

why use a sword when a well placed prick from a needle can puncture the energy artery of bakistan?

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby neeraj » 03 Jan 2016 20:18

Ruin them economically and abrogate the Indus Water Treaty.

8 ways India can hurt Pakistani economy

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby member_23370 » 03 Jan 2016 20:21

Sorry but you have to humiliate the PA, Their economy can be destroyed in parallel but the real ghapad must be like the GHQ or Mehran base attack. IMHO.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Supratik » 03 Jan 2016 20:41

Their economy is not much to write about. Bangladesh is going to pass their per capita GDP in a couple of years. The main entity is the PA and unless you can decisively hurt or defeat the PA these things will continue.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Aditya G » 03 Jan 2016 21:07

Our establishment has evaluated kinetic options in the past. One hopes that these are again evaluated:

Agencies : New Delhi, Wed May 27 2009, 18:20 hrs:

India had various options vis-a-vis Pakistan following the 26/11 Mumbai attacks and the force had "enough" intelligence to do what it wanted, Air Chief Fali Homi Major said on Wednesday.

"There were certain options, which were certainly discussed. Depending on the objective and the task given, IAF had enough intelligence to do what it wanted to do then," Major told reporters
here during a joint press conference with his successor and chief-designate Air Marshal P V Naik.

....

He refused to reveal what the government had discussed with the armed forces immediately after the Mumbai terror attacks that claimed nearly 200 lives, including NSG commandos and senior Maharastra police officers.

....

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Bihanga » 03 Jan 2016 22:26

India's retaliation to major Terror attack cannot be a direct aggression to Pakistan, because we do not posses overwhelming military might against any security branch of Pakistan other than their Navy.

Best we must do is exceeds every limits in improving internal survelliance and spaying. Identify gaps in our porous borders and arrange necessay resouces to stop cross border intrusions of any kind.

Pakistan is already paying heavy price for spread of terror against India, hence there are daily terror attacks, Suicide waves and controlled bomb explosion are everyday happening in pakistan.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 03 Jan 2016 22:38

Any overt action, and we give the impression of being an irresponsible state, because no one in their right mind will predict a swift, decisive conflict between the two states. Once we are perhaps a few more times their size and more capable from a technology point of view, this will become an option. Wars whose outcomes are difficult to predict should never be initiated. There is a lot of Capital, lives, the future of our entire nation at stake!

Any covert action and we dont get the satisfaction of seeing our enemy suffer for their misdeeds.

We also cant develop 'non state actors' for fear of losing control over our own state apparatus.

The only option open to us appears to be sponsoring insurgencies in Poak, specifically in Karachi and FATA areas. We may already be doing that, going by Sri Doval's emphasis on the internal stress line of Poak while in the think tank role. The only change I would make is to make our role a bit more official. Let an Indian minister of state get his pictures clicked with our Mohajir brothers. Let them hold hearings in RajyaSabha about the human rights violations and martial law in Karachi. We need to institutionalize this role and support. It should be setup such that another Gujaral can't destroy these human beings helping us out on a whim. One way to guarantee this wont happen in future is to hold hearings that reexamine his role and fix responsibility for the human cost his compromise cost us. No politician will dare do this in future and our partners in Pak will get the much needed confidence that this time, we wont abandon them.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby ramana » 03 Jan 2016 22:42

Need to close down criminal, police and politician (CPP) networks in India first.

Both Mumbai (1993, 2008) and Punjab (2015, 2016) attacks are due to these networks.

these are within Indian sphere of control.

When CPP starts impacting national security its no longer a crime issue.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby partha » 03 Jan 2016 22:44

ramana wrote:Need to close down criminal, police and politician (CPP) networks in India first.

It could be done in parallel, no? This is like saying "let's fix poverty first and then go to space".

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Aditya G » 03 Jan 2016 22:45

ramana wrote:Need to close down criminal, police and politician (CPP) networks in India first


You do realize that its not going happen (I.e. close down) anytime soon

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby ramana » 03 Jan 2016 22:47

partha it sort of making your self secure for next step.

Aditya G, Lets see. One should do what is in ones sphere of influence. Otherwise its who will bell the cat?

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Aditya G » 03 Jan 2016 22:53

^ Last time a challenge was thrown at us by a cross border terror group, we went across and killed them using same tactics. Yes I am talking about Myanmar op.

We have the technical and human capability. We need to respond to this latest challenge just once using kinetic means. Our present leadership is capable too.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 03 Jan 2016 22:55

ramana wrote:Need to close down criminal, police and politician (CPP) networks in India first.

Both Mumbai (1993, 2008) and Punjab (2015, 2016) attacks are due to these networks.

these are within Indian sphere of control.

When CPP starts impacting national security its no longer a crime issue.


Thats a defensive action. Further, these nexus are present in all 'normal' democratic societies. The US is pretty corrupt as far as politicians go! China is 10 times as corrupt. These weaknesses create vulnerabilities, but the action exploiting these vulnerabilities is prevented by an equal and opposite vulnerability and capability!

The only country that will have 0 corruption, 0 crime is a totalitarian country, and we dont want India to be like that. (We like corruption! A slightly rotten fruit is more sweet. ) What is missing is a capability to VISIBLY exploit the fault lines across the border.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby partha » 03 Jan 2016 22:56

ramanaji, it's a war on multiple fronts. Internal and external enemies must be fought simultaneously.

One problem with covert ops - Pak will accuse India without any proof and bring them up every time Mumbai is mentioned. Overt response is both direct and tangible. There is considerable sympathy for India now with attack on Indian consulate following Pathankot. India should seize this opportunity and retaliate.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby sudeepj » 03 Jan 2016 23:04

partha wrote:One problem with covert ops - Pak will accuse India without any proof and bring them up every time Mumbai is mentioned.


So what? Let them accuse. We will brazen it out. What will happen? Pakistan's 'sikka' in the world has never been lower. Even regular people in the west are now familiar with the perfidy. This world will just rolls its eyes and move on. You didnt get Mumbai accused even though you acted with patience. You can only get these pigs when you have a long enough spear to stick them.

In fact, everytime the Paks accuse us, we will feel a satisfaction well up in our hearts. Of a job well done.
Last edited by sudeepj on 03 Jan 2016 23:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby member_23370 » 03 Jan 2016 23:05

An overt attack is fine. No one including UN will side with pakis. but covert ops with large scale PA deaths is preferable.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Aditya G » 03 Jan 2016 23:40

Ironically it seems an effective ceasefire on loc actually limits our ability to effect covert strikes under the fog of overt and routine skirmishes

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Y. Kanan » 04 Jan 2016 00:07

Without stealthy drones to drop precision guided bombs or stealthy cruise missiles I can't think of any way for India to actually target anything or anyone across the border without triggering a war.

As long as India's afraid to fight a total war with Pakistan there should be no military retaliation, IMO. We have to ready to go all the way and any "limited" war that doesn't include the deliberate targeting of all Paki population centers with nukes and the systematic extermination of their entire national structure is a crime against our armed forces who would be laying down their lives for nothing. The next IndoPak war should be the LAST IndoPak war. Anything less and it shouldn't be fought at all.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Aditya G » 04 Jan 2016 00:15

If Iaf bomb a jehadi terror camp and make a quick exit, do you think Pakistan will invade India? Or if I lob 155 mm shells or even rockets across the loc is it grounds for war? Or say use a Milan atgm to destroy 10 bunkers.

These are options and there could be others. We have to exercise what suits us

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Karan M » 04 Jan 2016 00:24

Covert ops using mercenaries or other groups against the ISI and jihadi groups.
Support for Baloch, Sindhi and Pakhtoon freedom fighters
Thorough revamp of internal law and order with reintroduction of POTA type law and draconian laws for law enforcement anti corruption in particular
Identify the key areas for dominance in COIN, CQB and train accordingly and ramp up forces
Similarly build up conventional forces with an emphasis on arty, can and should be used on the LoC.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby ramana » 04 Jan 2016 00:34

KaranM, List OVERT and COVERT moves and look at the forks in the road for each option.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby member_28990 » 04 Jan 2016 00:38

lets say, hypothetically, that we have eyes on ground intel that at 9:45 PM, Hafeez Saeed will be having dinner in some madrasa inside POK. Lets say, at 9:47, the eyes on ground confirm that Saeed is really consuming his naan gosht at the specified location. At 9:50, we launch three Bmos missiles from an undisclosed border location. By 9:53 latest, the bugger will be enjoying his 72 guaranteed.

Now, at 10:00 the PM can brief the nation with a fait accompli, saying that this was a strike against a non state actor, and not Pakistan.

There is no way in hell Pak starts a nuclear war over this. If they do, well its bye bye time for them.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby ramana » 04 Jan 2016 00:41

Maxratul, Most likely Hafiz Suar is in Rawalpindi along with Dawood Ibrahim for state protection. He wont venture out for quite sometime.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby ramana » 04 Jan 2016 00:57

X-post.....
Satya_anveshi wrote:Pakis requests for talks; Puki sponsors keep lecturing India about talks;

India gets defensive and says talks and terror cannot go on;

After predictable terror incidents, there is always pressure on India to stop talks and pressure on Puki civvies to keep the talks going;

Then there are expectations for talks to be uninterrupted / uninterrupt-able;

All this makes one wonder, what are talks really about?

The perception this definitely leaves is there is something India to lose/give and Pakis (at least a section of pukis) to gain from talks?


If that is so, what are the reasons behind such an expected outcome? How does talks lead to India giving/losing and Pukis gaining?
- Is it the J&K settlement?
- Is it some financial aid that must go thru India?
- Is it pukistan's international isolation (which is definitely not strong)?
- Is it release of military pressure that is too much for Pak to bear?
- or something else?

Now, only fools expect India to engage in one sided giving and not expecting in return - not even a total messed up resident non-indian will think along this line.

Nor India/Indians will shy away from talks for the talks sake - this is one area even worst critic of Indians will have to hand the championship trophy to Indians hands down.

So, what is to be given by Pukis in return that India wants?
- Is it CRE of Puki Nuclear Infra?
- Is it total elimination of non-state infra?
- Is it drastic reduction of Paki military industrial complex?
- Is it access to afghanistan and neutralization of the so called strategic depth?
- Is it MFN which has not much real value for Indian companies?


The stark reality is, if Pakistan isn't able to contain terror at its home, how will it guarantee the same to India and even more so how good is expecting any of the major items listed above in the give/take in talks?

With this background, what good are talks about and why even play that game?

However, we have to get out of the perception battle that talks are unfavorable to India and hence we object to it. We have nothing to lose or gain because Pakistan lacks credibility and even capability to honor the negotiated settlement.

We must open talks at all levels and say we are ready for it provided pukistan pays for all the expense at our designated place in our capital, follow our strict restrictions for people involved in it as with any international engagement, and continue this repeatedly week after week. While at it, increase the covert ops until the time pukistan starts feeling the pain and starts saying it does not want talks with India anymore.


So, what do we really gain out of this approach?

This approach will leave our H&D intact but at an elevated level of offensive engagements and may invite higher rate of reaction. In my view this will eventually lead to war and therefore settlement on our terms.

Question is whether we are ready to bear the increased costs and even be able to handle the settlement that will come with its own problems.

IMO, we can deal with the outcomes and they open up new possibilities.
If I were PM, I will take this new path and issue a "khabardaar"/"saawadhaan" to pukistan.



From experience, talking to a bad guy when you are in the right empowers the bad guy. You will end up giving something valuable.

Wastern powers want India to talk for that legitimizes the terrorist actions of Pakistan. In other words the thief is given equality with the victim.
They do this for their own reasons.

Normally the victim will ensure the thief wont succeed.
But for various reasons India, the victim, always leaves the door open for the thief to rob and kill Indians.

Example if the Police(Gill etc) or Military(Sunderji) take stern action to lock the door and cut off the thief's arms, the next government elected by peaceful folks will demonize them.
Worse they will turn on attack jackals like Coupta to demonize the military.
And come up with scams to prevent re-armament(AK Anthony).

So I suggest India should clean up inside first and then think of external action. Or else they will fight on multiple fronts with termites second guessing and undermining armed forces morale.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Rishirishi » 04 Jan 2016 01:11

The attacks were expected. Modhi has probably reached some kind og deal with Mr TSP. The militants and others feel thretnead and are acting. Initially India will probably show restraints. But the militants may pull off a Parliament type of stunt. All this was probably predicted in advance.

It remains to see of TSP will act sternly against the militants. Saudi Arabia and the Muslim world is increasingly realizing the need to purge militancy. Just last month they created a coalition against IS. TSP needs the militants to keep India on its toe and keep the K issue hot.

But Militancy also has a huge price for TSP, and it may be so that TSP wants to get rid of the militants. They may even have got a order from Saudi and the Chinese. If they are to fight the militancy head on, they have to be certain that India does not attack them.

You may call this high hopes or what ever. I am generally sceptical of peace initatives with TSP. But this time it may be different.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby RoyG » 04 Jan 2016 02:59

We won't be able to win against Pakistan if we target jihadi infra. It is simply too large and self sustaining.

We have to hit the PA directly while breaking Pakistan itself.

I've come up with the following options:

1) Work with Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Bhutan to isolate Pakistan economically and diplomatically. This should be our long term objective.

2) They continuously target our infra including consulates and embassies in Afghanistan. We should up the ante by targeting theirs in our neighborhood as well. (This is the lowest hanging fruit IMO). This option will deliver an immediate response and buy us some time to formulate effective options to hit the PA officer corp directly.

3) Begin a diplomatic offensive demanding freedom for Balochistan, Sindh, PoK, Shias, etc. Organize conferences, develop bodies to deal with HR violations in the region and make everyone in the neighborhood except Pak a stakeholder. Link violations to policy. This will help us foster greater cooperation with maligned groups and give them a voice internationally. We can then begin the process of arming them.

4) Have an effective strategy to battle narcotics. Decriminalization and legalization should be looked at to suck the revenue out of terror outfits.

5) Carry forward with intelligence reform. Combine R&AW with IB and significantly enhance the capability and reach of Military Intelligence. Police reform also a must.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby VikramS » 04 Jan 2016 03:00

India can specifically target the leaders & infra of the Non State Actors. You can not destroy the infra but at least make a point and increase the cost.

The challenge is that TSP will retaliate by targeting Indian leaders, political or military.

I am not sure however that the Indian decision makers have the stomach for putting a bulls-eye on themselves.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby RoyG » 04 Jan 2016 03:05

VikramS wrote:India can specifically target the leaders & infra of the Non State Actors. You can not destroy the infra but at least make a point and increase the cost.

The challenge is that TSP will retaliate by targeting Indian leaders, political or military.

I am not sure however that the Indian decision makers have the stomach for putting a bulls-eye on themselves.


This is like treating the symptom and not the problem. The problem is the PA and its ISI arm. If you want to target leaders, target the officers and higher ranks. Jihadi groups serve as insulation take the hits for them. This was the mistake the Americans made.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby SBajwa » 04 Jan 2016 03:36

Much of baki economy is unreported black money generated by drugs and donations to mullahs by pious. India is the biggest market to dump drugs and get black money. It would not be wrong to say that rich and elite in india's metropolitan areas are funding dawood and baki economy. So we should target this first.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby RoyG » 04 Jan 2016 03:41

SBajwa wrote:Much of baki economy is unreported black money generated by drugs and donations to mullahs by pious. India is the biggest market to dump drugs and get black money. It would not be wrong to say that rich and elite in india's metropolitan areas are funding dawood and baki economy. So we should target this first.


We should look at some sort of legalization scheme. Simply targeting people won't work. There is too much money in the trade and powerful players. We should start with marijuana legalization and decriminalize heroine and cocaine. What incentive would drug lords have to sell to us when it can be manufactured domestically and regulated?

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby ramana » 04 Jan 2016 04:18

RoyG, taking a leaf from Bajirao, hitting PA is core of Pak state and that will bring down Pak sultanate.

Vikrams, NSA is just shadows. Wont hurt core state.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby Screambowl » 04 Jan 2016 04:22

The best retaliation would be political turmoil in Pakistan. If Army gets into rift with the civilian government like always, that would affect the CPEC.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby VikramS » 04 Jan 2016 04:48

ramana wrote:RoyG, taking a leaf from Bajirao, hitting PA is core of Pak state and that will bring down Pak sultanate.

Vikrams, NSA is just shadows. Wont hurt core state.


The question here is of retaliation; i.e. a tactical response.

The bigger strategic question of how to deal with core state has been dealt with for so long; let them stew in their juices and isolate them.

Problem is the isolation from India is not working; too much of the Indian state is compromised.

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Re: India's Retaliation Options to significant terrorist str

Postby suryag » 04 Jan 2016 05:05

have we thought of dossiers ?


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