China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

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chetonzz
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chetonzz » 03 Jun 2020 09:31


chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 03 Jun 2020 18:34

chetonzz wrote:
Kartik wrote:FC-31 prototype is again up in the air.

Image
Image


More images

https://twitter.com/lealunno/status/126 ... 07298?s=20

https://twitter.com/dafengcao/status/12 ... 27264?s=20


It's like the generic Gen 5 manned fighter. The AMCA, KFX and TFX all look like it. It is the only one flying so they get props.

From what I read, the PLAAF is still not onboard. The chini navy wanted a lighter carrier fighter so the F-31 is a navy project onlee. Also much depends on the WS-19 engine.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 03 Jun 2020 18:35

What's the pace of their J-20 program? How many LRIP aircraft have they operationalized till date?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby DavidD » 04 Jun 2020 00:54

brar_w wrote:What's the pace of their J-20 program? How many LRIP aircraft have they operationalized till date?


Last verified number was 8, I believe. Seems like a lot of effort has been made to change the engine to an indigenous type lately, so not sure if they're continuing production right now.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 04 Jun 2020 01:24

These are the verified serials tracked by a well-known chini mil watch site.

http://chinese-military-aviation.blogspot.com/p/gallery-i.html?m=1

Code S/N
21* 78271
22 78272
23 78273
24 78274
25 78275
26 78276
27 78277
28 78278

20$ 78230
21 78231
22 78232
23 78233

01% 62001
02 62002
05 62005
07 62007
08 62008
09 62009

* J-20 in service with PLAAF Dingxin Flight Test & Training Base.
$ J-20 in service with PLAAF Cangzhou Flight Training Base.
% J-20 in service with the 9th Brigade, formerly the 3rd Division

Last Updated 1/25/20

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 04 Jun 2020 01:26

8 is the number of J-20 prototypes from what I remember. The last I remember seeing was something like 20 LRIP aircraft with operational units.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 04 Jun 2020 01:44

brar_w wrote:8 is the number of J-20 prototypes from what I remember. The last I remember seeing was something like 20 LRIP aircraft with operational units.


Sounds about right from the verified SN list. Unlikely every serial was photographed and verified. Operational units would include those at the training bases.

They re-engined the plane to the WS-10C around October last year (posted in this thread.)

Photos of prod J-20s with WS-10s are only those in yellow primer, not operational gray:
https://mobile.twitter.com/HenriKenhmann/status/1189551873537101824/photo/1

Maybe issues with mass producing the jet with the new engines.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Hari Nair » 04 Jun 2020 14:51

Does any member have inputs on the type(s) of Chinese helicopters seen during the ongoing events in Ladakh? Are their 'Copyhawks' being deployed?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby kit » 04 Jun 2020 22:06

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/e6a137ff-91e9-4098-bfc7-08b24caa99ba

Image

China’s FL-62 large-scale transonic wind tunnel has completed all its proving trials and commenced operations to generate data from test models, the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) announced on 26 May.

The wind tunnel, which had been under development and construction since 2012, is regarded as a strategic facility and has been a major state investment.

It is configured as a continuous loop with a 2.4 m chamber for the structure undergoing tests, with previous reports indicating that it is expected to give more accurate and consistently reliable test results than facilities previously available to Chinese aircraft designers.

The facility has been built at AVIC’s Aerodynamic Research Institute in Shenyang, which is also the city in which one of China’s two primary combat aircraft manufacturers, the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC), is located.

SAC makes China’s ‘Flanker’ derivatives and is currently developing the FC-31 low-observable combat aircraft, which persistent rumours suggest is the leading candidate for next carrier-borne aircraft for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

The successful completion of the wind tunnel project was also reported by the state-owned Global Times newspaper, which noted that the first operational use of the facility was to conduct a test for “an undisclosed new aircraft”.

It also referred to a statement made in 2019 by Wang Haifeng, who was involved in the design of the J-10 and J-20 aircraft built by China’s other major combat aircraft producer – the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation –, in which he said that “China is eyeing to develop a next-generation fighter jet by 2035 or earlier”

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 05 Jun 2020 00:41

^^^ Chinis are replicating the entire build chain from wind tunnels to engine factories to airliners assembly on their soil because they have no choice with the trade/tech war. It'll be interesting to see what they will come up with, more copies or originals.

Especially in their commercial space. A flight review of their Arj-21 by a non-resident chiniman. I envy him. Would love to see the day where someone can review a desi airliner:

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Prasad » 05 Jun 2020 16:22

Hari Nair wrote:Does any member have inputs on the type(s) of Chinese helicopters seen during the ongoing events in Ladakh? Are their 'Copyhawks' being deployed?

To add, where are their helis based out of ? Hotan seems to have a whole bunch of fighters but I can't seem to find a similar arrangement of helis on the ground.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 06 Jun 2020 14:45

I haven't seen any photos of helos in Tibet related to the recent "engagements." The Z-20 is supposed to be their high altitude helo but all we know is that it had trained there from reports. Who knows, but the chini helos noted in Indian reports could be actual Blackhawks that the chinis had husband for 4 decades for use in Tibet.

Hotan is in much lower altitude in Xinjiang not Tibet. They have very low availability of air assets in Tibet. The geography doesn't allow it.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 06 Jun 2020 15:07

Their latest turboprop MA700. Looks like an ATR but it actually a direct descendant of the AN-24. Chinis had been building and reworking their Y-7 ripoff for over 60 years:
Image

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Prasad » 06 Jun 2020 15:24

chola wrote:I haven't seen any photos of helos in Tibet related to the recent "engagements." The Z-20 is supposed to be their high altitude helo but all we know is that it had trained there from reports. Who knows, but the chini helos noted in Indian reports could be actual Blackhawks that the chinis had husband for 4 decades for use in Tibet.

Hotan is in much lower altitude in Xinjiang not Tibet. They have very low availability of air assets in Tibet. The geography doesn't allow it.

There have been multiple reports of helis sighted in the Sumdo area. The closest airfield is the Ngari airport. Haven't spotted any on the aprons there on google maps or other online maps and imagery.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 06 Jun 2020 15:37

The MA700 is derived from their MA600 which was derived from the Y-7.

Their propeller aircraft fascinate me. I think they really give Cheen a lot of experience that is missing from our side. That history allows them to get into large aircraft and the airliner business with the Y-20, ARJ-21, C-919 and C-929.

Obviously, they give the PLA a lot of mission flexibility -- they don't need to import platforms for AWACS, MPA, SAR, EW, VVIP. etc.

Y-12 (derived from their indigenous twin-piston Y-11)
Image

Y-7 (derived from AN-24)
Image

MA600 (derived from Y-7)
Image

Y-8 (derived from AN-12)
Image

Y-9 (derived from Y-8)
Image

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 07 Jun 2020 12:00

The Y-20 tanker is out it seems:

ImageImage
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https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffHwang_EntH/status/1269310227184119808


Jeffery
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Replying to
@RupprechtDeino
OK, Q30 declares that that thing is a extra external pod for refueling probe…

Image

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby NRao » 08 Jun 2020 10:44

Pressures increasing on Indonesia and Malaysia in the South China Sea

(CNN)Chinese and Malaysian vessels were locked in a high-stakes standoff for more than one month earlier this year, near the island of Borneo in the South China Sea.

The Malaysian-authorized drill ship, the West Capella, was looking for resources in waters also claimed by Beijing, when a Chinese survey vessel, accompanied by coast guard ships, sailed into the area and began conducting scans, according to satellite images analyzed by the Asia Maritime Transparency Institute (AMTI).

Malaysia deployed naval vessels to the area, which were later backed by US warships that had been on joint exercises in the South China Sea.
Beijing claimed it was conducting "normal activities in waters under Chinese jurisdiction," but for years Chinese vessels have been accused of hounding countries who try to explore for resources in waters that China claims as its own.

Now, experts say the Chinese ships are adopting increasingly forceful tactics, which risks sparking new conflicts with major regional powers such as Malaysia and Indonesia.


Greg Polling, director of the AMTI, said the countries are more important than ever as Chinese ships expand their reach in the region, mostly due to the advanced construction of Beijing's artificial islands in the South China Sea.

"(The islands) provide forward basing for Chinese ships, effectively turning Malaysia and Indonesia into front line states," Polling said. "On any given day, there about dozen coast guard ships buzzing around the Spratly Islands, and about a hundred fishing boats, ready to go."
An Indonesian air force pilot prepares for taking off in an F-16 at an air base in Pekanbaru, Riau on January 7, to deploy near the Natuna Islands.

An Indonesian air force pilot prepares for taking off in an F-16 at an air base in Pekanbaru, Riau on January 7, to deploy near the Natuna Islands.
Nine-dash line
The South China Sea is one of the most hotly contested regions in the world, with competing claims from China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan and Indonesia.

Beijing's territorial claims, known as the nine-dash line -- owing to the markings printed on Chinese maps of the region -- are by far the largest and encompass almost the entirety of the sea, from Hainan Island down to the top of Indonesia. China's claims have no basis under international law and were found to be invalid in a 2016 international court ruling.

Despite this, from about 2015 the Chinese government began to bolster its territorial ambitions by building artificial islands on reefs and shoals in the South China Sea, and then militarizing them with aircraft strips, harbors and radar facilities.

"These (islands) are bristling with radar and surveillance capabilities, they see everything that goes on in the South China Sea," Polling said. "In the past, China didn't know where you were drilling. Now they certainly do."
Experts say Beijing has created an armada of coast guard and Chinese fishing vessels that can be deployed in the South China Sea to harass other claimant's ships or sail in politically sensitive areas.
Growing aggression
The confrontation over the Malaysian drill ship wasn't the first act of aggression by the Chinese government in the region in 2020.

The year began with a standoff in the Natuna Islands on the far southern end of the South China Sea, territory claimed by China and Indonesia. Vessels from both countries were involved in the standoff, which began when Chinese fishing vessels started to operate inside Indonesia's exclusive economic zone.

Eventually, Indonesia deployed F-16 fighters and naval ships to the islands and President Joko Widodo personally flew to the area, in an unusual show of strength from the country.

In April, a Chinese maritime surveillance vessel rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing boat near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.

The act prompted Vietnam to send a diplomatic note to the United Nations restating its sovereignty over its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang responded by saying China would take "all measures necessary" to safeguard Beijing's interests in the region.

"I want to stress this: attempts by any country to negate in any means China's sovereignty, rights and interests in the South China Sea and to reinforce its own illegal claim are bound to be fruitless," Geng said.
China's push to modernize its military (2017)


China's push to modernize its military (2017) 02:26
Insecurity
Beijing has a long history of harassing other countries' vessels in the South China Sea, mostly from Vietnam and the Philippines and also occasionally from Malaysia and Indonesia.

In the past, Chinese diplomats have helped soothed aggrieved parties, but experts say the fallout from the coronavirus and the rise of so-called "wolf warrior" diplomacy in Beijing have removed any circuit breaker in the relationship between China and its regional rivals.
"What has changed is that they've really taken the glove off of the fist diplomatically. The statements are brash and unhelpful," said Polling.

Experts said Beijing's growing forcefulness in the region is partly driven by the global coronavirus pandemic, which has dealt a heavy blow to China's rapid economic growth and damaged the country's international reputation.

At the meeting of its parliament in May, the Chinese government didn't set a target for annual GDP growth for the first time in years, a sign that it is concerned about falling economic performance.

At the same time, tensions are rising with the United States and Europe over Beijing's role in containing the initial outbreak and whether it gave the world enough time to respond to the pandemic, which has killed more than 380,000 people.

China is embracing a new brand of foreign policy. Here's what wolf warrior diplomacy means
China is embracing a new brand of foreign policy. Here's what wolf warrior diplomacy means
Concerned about appearing like its grip on power is slipping, the ruling Communist Party is doubling down on its rhetoric and on its nationalistic agenda, which includes control of the South China Sea, experts said.
Beijing is keen to foster a narrative that the US is retreating as a global power to solidify its hold on the region, said Ian Storey, senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

"It will want to show Southeast Asian claimants that American military power is on the decline and its commitment to the region is waning," Storey said. "(It will want to show that) the economic problems that China is facing will not impact its policy on the South China Sea."
So far, Malaysia and Indonesia have tried to avoid letting South China Sea dominate their relationship with China, but with Beijing marking its territory in the region, the days of quiet diplomacy might not last forever.

"At what level of aggression does it become impossible to ignore? ... At what point do they add their voice to the criticism that you've been getting for years and years from Hanoi and Manila?" AMTI's Polling said.

Free-for-all
Facing an entrenched Chinese presence on their doorstep, now might seem like the time for Southeast Asian nations to band together and face down Beijing's presence in the region.
But Storey said with regional powers preoccupied with coronavirus as well as their own economic and political crises, any hope of unity in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was unlikely.
"No matter how hard China pushes I don't think we're going to see the ASEAN members coalesce and present that strong united front against China," he said.
"I think going forward in the next six months, towards the end of 2020, we can expect China to double down on its assertive behavior in the South China Sea."
Malaysia has long worked to balance the benefits of a close relationship with China with running its own independent foreign policy, AMTI's Polling said, which is why previous clashes with Chinese vessels in Malaysian waters were kept out of the media as much as possible.
Indonesia has in the past opened fire on Chinese fishing vessels that failed to leave its waters, and President Widodo's tough behavior in January showed he will not sit by while Beijing moves into the Natuna Islands.
But experts say China won't be easily deterred.
"Beijing believes it can wear down Indonesian opposition; and eventually Indonesia, much like Malaysia, will realize that it has little choice but to accommodate China's presence," Foreign Policy Research Institute senior fellow Felix Chang wrote in January.
Still, there is risk too for the Chinese government. The United States is already increasing its freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, holding half as many in the first five months of 2020 as it did in the whole of last year.

Washington is also working to directly support Southeast Asian nations in the South China Sea. The Malaysian Navy received its first batch of surveillance drones from the US in May.
And, during the West Capella's operations, US Navy warships performed what the US Navy called "presence operations" near the drill ship while it was being monitored by the Chinese vessels.
"The US supports the efforts of our allies and partners in the lawful pursuit of their economic interests," Vice Adm. Bill Merz, commander of the US 7th Fleet, said in a statement at the time.
Speaking in a public lecture in May, James Holmes, a professor at the US Naval War College and former Navy officer, said that as Beijing pushes harder in the South China Sea, the US may look like the better bet for a steady friend.

"I think China has actually seriously overplayed its hand by being so bullying and by being so aggressive," Holmes said.

"That starts driving together allies that are worried about Chinese aggression ... The more China pushes the more coalition partners are likely to unite and push back."
Any push back could cost Beijing economically.
China has close trade ties with many of its regional neighbors, such as the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, and needs them for parts of its international agenda such as its much trumpeted Belt and Road Initiative -- the country's interlinking web of regional trade deals and infrastructure projects.

"I think there's already been a lot of unease in the region about how China has used Covid-19 to push its claims in the South China Sea," said Storey, from ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

"China won't want to completely destroy its relations with Southeast Asia by pushing too hard."

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 08 Jun 2020 10:49

Indonesia and Malaysia must not allow this, they must sink 10-15 Chinese Naval ships to show the Chinese their place.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby AdityaM » 08 Jun 2020 12:21

Run for the hills, the Chinese are coming!

Oh wait that's where they are coming in from

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/sta ... 97601?s=21

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 09 Jun 2020 12:15

The second Type 055 will be named "Lhasa"

We can help celebrate the occasion by liberating said city!

https://mobile.twitter.com/HenriKenhmann/status/1270060826934665222



East Pendulum
@HenriKenhmann
Le 2e Type 055 de série, "Lhassa" (??), a quitté le chantier naval Changxing Jiangnan à Shanghai pour rejoindre son unité située dans le nord de la Chine.

Son entrée en service devrait avoir lieu avant la fin d'année.

------------- Translated -----------

The 2nd Type 055 DDH eventually to be named "Lhasa" has left the Changxing Jiangnan shipyard in Shanghai to join its unit located in the North of China.

Its service entry is expected to take place before the end of the year.

Image



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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby VinodTK » 10 Jun 2020 08:07


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 10 Jun 2020 14:30

^^^ With the spoiled single child generation, what do you expect the PLA to do? After the first day of basic training, half of the Little Emperors might quit without that spartan policy.

You are in Sparta! lol

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 10 Jun 2020 17:46

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 10 Jun 2020 17:46

Anyone can geo locate these Type15?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby NRao » 12 Jun 2020 23:13

I am unable to link the video, but, on cnn.com us, a Chinese military expert states that if the situation is not managed well that there could be an armed conflict between the US and China.

Create a problem, say that differences should not escalate to a conflict and take advantage of the situation. Typically Chinese.

Need to take them head on.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Kartik » 13 Jun 2020 03:08

J-10C is now being seen more regularly with dual rack pylons for the PL-12 (same as SD-10A) BVRAAM.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 13 Jun 2020 15:09

^^^ I followed the "Vigorous Dragon" (it's really good in bed?) since it began life as the evil twin of the LCA more than two decades ago. I called it vaporware back then in those legendary LCA/J-10 flamewars. It was easy to bash then because there were no pictures and all the chini posters could put up were easy to spot PS. lol

Ah, how things changed. I've grown quite fond of this chini Lavi over the years. They have perservered with it through crashes and all and now the plane is in the hundreds and being pumped out in its third major mark and with a new domestic engine.

There is a lesson here. Persistance.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 13 Jun 2020 15:24

Y-5 from their Western Theater SaR unit. Copy of the AN-2. Piston powered anacronism that had been built since the 1950s.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 15 Jun 2020 23:49

Their Type 003 carrier is missing!

https://mobile.twitter.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1272415557342633984

@Rupprecht_A
@RupprechtDeino
This most recent image showing the Type 003 aircraft carrier construction site at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai on 11th June ... and indeed, the carrier is gone.

Image


This area was packed with modules just a month ago:
Image

Optimistically, the chinis are giving up on carriers because their economy is wrecked by the wuhan virus and have scrapped the modules. Carriers are too expensive even for them.

Pessimistically, the chinis are clearing the construction site and getting ready for Type 004. They'll be assembling 003 in a nearby drydock while the superblocks for 004 are built here.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby DavidD » 17 Jun 2020 04:11

nam wrote:Anyone can geo locate these Type15?


On one of the signs it says "高岭" district, which based on a Google search appears to be in Changsha, Hunan.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 17 Jun 2020 13:38

DavidD wrote:
nam wrote:Anyone can geo locate these Type15?


On one of the signs it says "高岭" district, which based on a Google search appears to be in Changsha, Hunan.


Thanks. As I thought they are not in the high altitude areas.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby NRao » 17 Jun 2020 17:07

Russia accuses leading Arctic researcher of spying for China

Chinese are excellent at everything other than research.

Russia has accused one of its leading Arctic researchers of treason, alleging that he gave sensitive information to China. This is the latest in a string of cases where high-profile Russian scientists have found themselves in a standoff with the security services over suspected foreign contacts.

.........



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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 24 Jun 2020 13:17



Biz reports say their navigation industry had already generated $50B worth of business with earlier editions of Beidou (1 & 2) which were Asia-specific. This edition, 3, is global.

They are using their aerospace industry to kickstart their economy.
https://www.airway1.com/comac-wins-deal-to-sell-100-arj21-and-c919-jets-to-chinas-private-airline/


COMAC wins deal to sell 100 ARJ21 and C919 jets to China’s private airline

China Express Airlines, which only operates Western aircraft, will receive the first ARJ21 by the end of the year

BY RICARDO MEIER JUNE 11, 2020

Supported by China’s state-owned airlines, COMAC does not suffer from the same problem as other commercial aircraft manufacturers, which rely on lengthy discussions before concluding a sale.

Their jets have a numerous backlog almost entirely formed by orders from Chinese state-controlled companies. This week, however, COMAC secured an agreement to sell 100 units of the ARJ21 and C919 models to the airline China Express Airlines.

Unlike other companies, the Chongqing-based regional airline is privately owned and operates a fleet of 49 Western planes – 11 Airbus A320 and 38 CRJ900. The order is the largest ever received by COMAC from a private airline, but the two companies have not disclosed the division of units between the C919 and the ARJ21.


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 25 Jun 2020 00:00

The Post-INF pain is very much real -

Image

The problem with this particular campaign is that, in theory, if the US is resolute (and a political consensus has not been achieved but might just be if Chinese propoganda shops keep pushing it) on deploying intermediate ranged hypersonic systems (or even subsonic weapons) in the Pacific, having lackluster basing support may not matter all that much. Quite a significant conventional capability can be fielded with Air-Launched, and Guam based medium to intermediate ranged weapons. And of course if you build them you don't always have to deploy them all the time. Mere possession of that option is a deterrent.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby RKumar » 25 Jun 2020 15:01

^ So what Chene gonna do, increased deployment of their missiles as they they can't attack the other party? Bloody they are even reacting to defensive capabilities of other nations while they keep adding offensive as well as defensive capabilities. Truly, double standard and duplicate tongue.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 25 Jun 2020 16:12

RKumar wrote:^ So what Chene gonna do, increased deployment of their missiles as they they can't attack the other party? Bloody they are even reacting to defensive capabilities of other nations while they keep adding offensive as well as defensive capabilities. Truly, double standard and duplicate tongue.


Exactly that. It'll be an excuse for them to mass produce more. They ignored Unkil's plea to join arms control talks. The thing with Cheen under Deng and his successors is they never built a huge nuclear arsenal or navy even as their economy exploded because they were adamant that they don't spend themselves into collapse like the USSR. Weapons give no economic return. Under Xi, they've already built a navy as big as the Soviets. The mijjiles and nukes will come next.

Both good and bad. Bad because we'll be facing this mass of chit coming from their MIC. Good is they are becoming more and more like the USSR, especially with their export market collapsing and their MIC needing to grow even more to provide jobs.

A MIC is good and must have for any power like Cheen or India but a MIC that is like the USSR where it is was over 50% of the economy will lead to economic collapse. No nation can survive with an economy making a majority of things that provide no economic return.

brar_w
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 25 Jun 2020 18:44

RKumar wrote:^ So what Chene gonna do, increased deployment of their missiles as they they can't attack the other party? Bloody they are even reacting to defensive capabilities of other nations while they keep adding offensive as well as defensive capabilities. Truly, double standard and duplicate tongue.


They already have a substantial conventional capability in the region, as far as medium and intermediate ranged systems are concerned. In fact, much of their DF-XX is essentially a conventional Pershing II and continuation of the work had that effort stuck around (in a non INF world). I'm convinced that had that arsenal not existed the US would have probably preferred to stay within the INF framework even if it meant treaty disputes that lingered on.

Even then, it will not be hard for the US to field a small regionally focused (Pacific) arsenal of hypersonic boost glide systems with medium to intermediate range. Political will is a mixed bag. There are more than half a dozen hypersonic programs out there among US services and DARPA but the political will extends to just about completing their development (this was similar to what happened to supersonic/ramjet missile programs back in the 70s and 80s). A bi-partisan political consensus is yet to emerge on actually fielding the systems in large numbers (as opposed to developing the capability and industrial capacity) outside of one USAF medium ranged system and one US Navy IR system that is codified into law. They can start off with air and sea launched and then look at more compact and easily deployable ground based systems (as opposed to the rather large first gen HBGV capability the US Army is fielding). DARPA is pushing exactly that to the USMC (though USMC has not yet bought into it), and it is they, and not the US Army, who will be the best suited to exploit it given their ability to move things around in the Pacific using their amphibious capability and then take it deep inland if needed and if host nations agree during war or heightened tensions.

https://news.usni.org/2020/06/18/marine ... to-arsenal

RKumar wrote: Truly, double standard and duplicate tongue..


Having a double tongue is not really that big of a deal in geopolitical/strategic terms. It is in China's best interest to build up capability (of which they already have substantial amounts of DF-21/26) while applying maximum economic, political and military pressure to nations in the region to prevent, or at least delay, any deployment of a US IR system on their shores. I think where they've miscalculated is (and they did the same when they applied pressure on South Korea on THAAD which is now permanently deployed there) that their military actions don't align with that threat (they are bullying smaller nations while attempting to influence medium or larger regional powers via softer measures (for now) ). They are also, IMHO, underestimating the future of advanced missile / weapon production given how additive manufacturing of advanced materials and complex shapes is going to level a lot of the direct cost advantage that they may have with very high end weapons production at scale.

I mean Orbital ATK already build the entire HAWC scramjet engine using 100% additive manufacturing and that is the state of systems designed, maybe half a decade ago so the systems that come by 2030 are likely to utilize these things even more. I don't think we can look at PPP, or other relative economic indicators to judge, for sure, that if this comes down to a race to field a credible hypersonic deterrent in the region, that China can race ahead of the US or perhaps the US and Japan combined in this department. Whether the US and Japan has the political will (which the CPC surely does) and cover to actually build up an inventory and deploy it in the region, remains to be seen. It is my opinion that if these nations don't do that, then the conventional detterent, as it applies to the very specific region of the Pacific will, for the US and Japan, erode by 2030. Perhaps even sooner.
Last edited by brar_w on 25 Jun 2020 19:20, edited 5 times in total.

idan
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby idan » 25 Jun 2020 18:52




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