China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

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chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 25 Jun 2020 19:15



Is that a Z-10? Not a chini camo and looks more like a Hind with the long wing stubs though.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby idan » 25 Jun 2020 19:20

It is Z-10

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Prasad » 25 Jun 2020 21:27

Irrespective of american willingness to deploy hypersonic systems, either scramjet powered or bgv, the japanese seem eager to have their own programs for these. They most likely will deploy them.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 25 Jun 2020 21:39

Prasad wrote:Irrespective of american willingness to deploy hypersonic systems, either scramjet powered or bgv, the japanese seem eager to have their own programs for these. They most likely will deploy them.


No one (in the public) really knows of how committed the Japanese are to both funding the complete development of, and then acquiring these systems in a quantity that creates the sort of deterrent (conventional) effect that is required. There have been media reports that say they want to develop this capability. But that is very different from a 10-12 year political and budgetary support that will be required to follow through on all of that and then set up a capability to produce them at scale (or at least enough scale for them to be something beyond silver bullet force that can't be "decoy'd away). Plus it is not just about building and fielding these very fast and potentially highly accurate weapons. If they are going to be designed around anything besides a large and well known fixed target (which then gets into the economics vis-a-vis purely ballistic missiles) then you need giant leaps in your long range ISR capabilities to do the sort of target-generation and post impact assessment in a dynamic situation. This conundrum ( need for survivability+ multiple order of magnitude improvements in decision cycle and time + ubiquitous high fidelity SA) and the challenges it poses to traditional F2T2EA is what has led the USAF to finally ditch a like for like AWACS or JSTARS replacement in favor of something radically different, and technically much complex from developmental perspective (lack of tech maturity) and a doctrinal perspective (how and how much authority to delegate at what level and how much authority to delegate to AI). Those programs and efforts would have to move concurrently. This is no less of a challenge and actually worthy of being dubbed Assault Breaker 2.0.

Even China's dog and pony parade where they rolled out a bunch of hypersonic weapons, was coupled with a few sprinklings of unknown (at the time) high speed, and/or penetrating ISR systems. Who knows what real capability they have (besides just propaganda props for 11) but had they just rolled out missiles without addressing the ISR piece then their claims would have been far less credible even for existing DF-21/26 systems. Now they are still getting their AWACS programs so they are a bit away something that shifts to a new C2 architecture.

Its one thing to say you are moving form a 800 km Mach 0.9- Mach 2 capability to 2000 km Mach 10-20 capability but then in reality you have to be able to generate those targets, verify that they are the right targets (discrmination challenges), develop fire control solutions and then do battle assessment at range. Otherwise no point in having a 3000 km ranged Mach 17 BGV that is nothing but just merely a better version of a lower cost ballistic missile in terms of the type of targets it can engage. I don't see a lot of evidence of that happening in Japan just yet. Though it is tough to read their strategy. If you're just taking out man made island instalations then you are probably better off investing that money in fielding multiple types of cheaper, subsonic or low supersonic weapons and just saturating the air-defenses (little or no magazine impact given ground deployment). Or just more of what you already have.

Politics in Japan around long range offensive strike capability is shaky at best (even when it comes to buying cheaper and much less escalatory systems like hte JASSM-ER) and the jury is still out on whether there is broad political support for this capability, or at least enough support to follow through on some of the early work. If they field ground based intermediate ranged weapons (which is controversial at the best of times) then that would naturally solve a lot of the political problems the US has (internally) of deploying these systems in the region. Naval and Air Launched systems have broad support in the US and limited Conventional Prompt Strike capability probably already exists, with larger scale capability a couple of years away.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Prasad » 26 Jun 2020 00:09

All True. They might be banking on utilising co-working with american capabilities in whatever theatre they want to use these weapons. My guess about their development and deployment is based on the political noises being made now (yeah 10 years is a long time still) as well as their mo when it came to their own next gen fighter.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 26 Jun 2020 01:50

That is one possibility thought I suspected that sort of deep cooperation on offensive capability will itself come with its own set of cultural and political challenges in both nations. Their short term plans will be a good barometer on their long term ambitions. In the short term, they want to introduce stealthy cruise missiles and extend the range of their supersonic anti ship missiles. If and how that materializes will likely be a good proxy for how politically invested they are in acquiring this capability as opposed to circling on the fringes or the technology and not really going the last mile in producing and deploying it. Elon Musk likes to say that it is very easy to design a rocket but multiple orders of magnitude harder to design Its mass production capacity. I think that can also be said on hypersonics - what will likely separate the big players from the small players is going to be the capacity to field these systems at scale and then to, through building survivable and reliable ISR and C2 capability, employ it across a wide mission set (everything from relocatable or moving targets to generating targets through obscurity and decoy operations).

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 26 Jun 2020 15:18

Another Type 056 corvette commissioned. So many that watchers have lost precise count. At least 50 in service and about another 20 in fitting and trials.

1500tons and pretty well packed with weapons -- 76mm gun, 2x30mm cannons, 4xAShM and 2x3 torpedos. Towed sonar in A version for anti-sub role. Half the size of our Kamorta (of which we have just 4) but not much less armed. Missing a helo hangar but has a helipad.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/chinese-navy-commissions-another-type-056-class-corvette


22 JUNE 2020 00:00 GMT+0

Chinese navy commissions another Type 056-class corvette
by Andrew Tate

Another Type 056 (Jiangdao)-class corvette has entered service with China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), as reflected in photographs posted on the Chinese Weibo social media platform.

The ship has been given pennant number 617 and named Jingdezhen after a prefecture-level city in China’s northeastern Jiangxi Province. The commissioning ceremony appears to have taken place on 17 June at a naval facility in the eastern coastal city of Xiamen.

The Type 056 design may also be classed as a light frigate, and the latest ship is thought to have joined the 16th frigate squadron, which already operates four Type 056 and two anti-submarine warfare (ASW)-capable Type 056A corvettes.

It is not entirely clear how many Type 056s are now in service, although it is more than 50. Four of the class were commissioned in January but unconfirmed sources suggest that a further six may subsequently have been commissioned this year, prior to Jingdezhen.

Although unconfirmed, the number of commissionings is quite plausible. In January it was assessed that there were at least 20 more of the class that had been launched and were fitting out or undergoing sea trials.



Multiple iterations. Over 8 ships per years
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ramana
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby ramana » 27 Jun 2020 10:36

Any map of PLAF airfields in Tibet? And nearby airbases.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Rs_singh » 27 Jun 2020 10:51

ramana wrote:Any map of PLAF airfields in Tibet? And nearby airbases.


The map posted here is quite telling. Dated 2017:

I am not sure how to post a picture so posting the link instead:


https://jamestown.org/program/snapshot- ... r-command/

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nishant.gupta » 27 Jun 2020 12:53

Rs_singh wrote:
ramana wrote:Any map of PLAF airfields in Tibet? And nearby airbases.


The map posted here is quite telling. Dated 2017:

I am not sure how to post a picture so posting the link instead:


https://jamestown.org/program/snapshot- ... r-command/


Here you go sir. You can use Imgur.com for loading images in future.

Image


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 27 Jun 2020 21:13



The Chinese carrier is operational and just sent the global economy into a recession and shaved hundreds of billions of dollars. So its batman 1, and CVN 0.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 27 Jun 2020 23:42

brar_w wrote:


The Chinese carrier is operational and just sent the global economy into a recession and shaved hundreds of billions of dollars. So its batman 1, and CVN 0.


What good is a carrier that they can't target with and causes collateral damage to everyone including themselves? lol

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby NRao » 29 Jun 2020 08:14

There is major floodingin China. It, along with the virus, has got to take some wind out of their military sail.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby NRao » 29 Jun 2020 10:52


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby vimal » 29 Jun 2020 10:58

NRao wrote:There is major floodingin China. It, along with the virus, has got to take some wind out of their military sail.


Now we are the mercy of rain gods to help us. Next earthquake gods.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 29 Jun 2020 11:43



This and their Beidou constellation. They outlaunched the rest of the world by a wide margin last year and will do so again probably by a bigger margin this year.

People outside Wall Street don't remember how close the US came to dominating the chini satellite market. Then Bush punished LockMart and embargoed Cheen -- basically wiping out American competition by choice and that was it.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby NRao » 29 Jun 2020 11:44

Russia Accuses China Of Spying, Stealing Submarine Research Papers

Russian authorities have found Valery Mitko, President of its St Petersburg Arctic Social Sciences Academy, guilty of handing over ‘classified documents’ to the Chinese intelligence, TASS reported.

An investigation into the matter further revealed that Mitko handed over classified data during his visit to China.


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 29 Jun 2020 14:19

NRao wrote:There is major floodingin China. It, along with the virus, has got to take some wind out of their military sail.


BS that dam will never collapse.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 30 Jun 2020 14:04

Aditya_V wrote:
NRao wrote:There is major floodingin China. It, along with the virus, has got to take some wind out of their military sail.


BS that dam will never collapse.


No but bigger issue is it is being choked with silt and vast islands of garbage.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 30 Jun 2020 14:17

They make really nice models. Chini watchers can order anything from Taobao or Aliexpress including these barely known prototype variants.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KushigumoAkane/status/1276582312889577473

蜜柑Tangerine
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A model of Z-8L (Z-8 wide body variant)
This model was first seen in late 2018

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 30 Jun 2020 14:33

New helo mockup spotted on their 075 LHA:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1277614772205375493

@Rupprecht_A
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Back to that new rotorcraft UAV spotted on board the first Type 075: My feeling tells me its a new clean sheet design but given its shape it seems to be similar to an enlarged CHRDI (Chinese Helicopter Research and Development Institute) AV500C.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/dafengcao/status/1277488248055611392

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The size of the new drone, made by 白玮

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 30 Jun 2020 18:23

^^ Interesting that the Chinese propoganda account on twitter wanted to compare it to the MQ-8B but not the C.
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chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 30 Jun 2020 19:30

brar_w wrote:^^ Interesting that the Chinese propoganda account on twitter wanted to compare it to the MQ-8B but not the C.
Image


Whoa! Big difference between MQ-8B and C. Obviously the chinis wanted to be bigger and badder comparing against the "B" but to be truthful I didn't know much about the "C" myself.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 30 Jun 2020 19:35

The MQ-8C was declared operational (ioc) last year and will go on its first full length deployment later this year. At FOC they intend on having an AESA radar and potentially even weapons (APKWS, Hellfire etc) in the future. About 40 are planned for the USN small surface combatant fleet to work alongside the MH-60R and the smaller MQ-8B.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby NRao » 30 Jun 2020 19:47

I would take any fully functional battlefield automated system.

chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 30 Jun 2020 19:52

brar_w wrote:The MQ-8C was declared operational (ioc) last year and will go on its first full length deployment later this year. At FOC they intend on having an AESA radar and potentially even weapons (APKWS, Hellfire etc) in the future. About 40 are planned for the USN small surface combatant fleet to work alongside the MH-60R and the smaller MQ-8B.

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That looks more like a full-fledge helicopter than an UAV! Obviously without worrying about a human compartment you can pack the thing with far more sensors (and weapons.)

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 30 Jun 2020 20:03

Bell 407 is the parent design for the MQ-8C. When you take the human, and the associated sub-systems required to support crew, out you can increase range, endurance and payload. A UAV is just an unmanned craft. Size doesn't really matter and is dictated by mission needs. Most rotary winged UAV's are based on some sort of manned parent design (though unmanned concepts based on clean sheet design are now emerging - like the Bell V-247 Vigilant). The MQ-8B is based on the Schweizer 333.

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Schweizer 333:

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chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 01 Jul 2020 13:25

^^^ Interesting. I've always thought the MQ-8B was a clean sheet design. But it makes sense to use a trusted and tested design.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 02 Jul 2020 13:15

Chini carrier numba three is coming. They'll probably cobble this thing together the next six months or so.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1278350220217192448

@Rupprecht_A
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And so it begins:

As it seems this is the first confirmed image of one of the Type 003 aircraft carrier's mega-modules in dry dock no. 4 at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 02 Jul 2020 19:13

Regarding that earlier discussion on the number of Chinese J-20's produced till date - Aviation Week has that # at 38. One thing not noted in the AvWeek's "narrowing combat aircraft gap" narrative is the fact that the US 5th Generation fighter fleet is growing at around 90-100 aircraft (presently) annually which is expected to climb up to around 120-130 aircraft annually by 2025. Overall, the US will add about 120 fighters (or more) in its 2021 budget with the 5Gen to 4Gen ratio heavily skewed towards 5th gen. So while the %ages for growth may be small given the sheer size of the overall force structure (between USAF, USN, USMC) the raw number of new aircraft being added is not something the Chinese can ignore.

Long term, I suspect this gap will be narrower if not be in favor of the Chinese. I see the USAF (in particular) pivot away from fighter aircraft in favor of longer ranged bombers, and unmanned ISR. Whether that is just an increase in the topline for the B-21, or a very different looking next gen. air dominance platform. China will probably continue to be a fighter dominant force. USAF will have to make that cultural and force structure pivot away from traditional fighters to confront China.

What Is The Ratio Of U.S. And Chinese Military Aircraft?


When it comes to combat aircraft, the ratio is more narrow: The U.S. operates 3,435 aircraft while China operates 1,943. For now, the U.S. has a qualitative edge—with 586 fifth-generation combat aircraft to China’s 38.


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chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 02 Jul 2020 20:46

^^^ 518 third gen fighters! Still a lot of MiG-21s. lol

Most surprising is a huge lack of transports especially among rotary. Cheen is considered strong with its logistics but I guess that is mostly roads and ships.

Added: 500+ rotary transports, maybe lacking only relative to the US.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 06 Jul 2020 07:02

2 CVN's and their associated air-wing, and a nuclear capable bomber in/over the South China Sea -

JOINT BASE PEARL HARBOR-HICKAM, Hawaii --
One B-52 Stratofortress bomber from the 96th Bomb Squadron, 2nd Bomb Wing, Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, took off from home station and participated in a maritime integration exercise with the USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike groups in the South China Sea before landing at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. LINK


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 06 Jul 2020 14:16

chola wrote:So it seems both of their carriers are out at sea. CV-16 had been tooling around the Pacifuc for a few weeks. CV-17 left port yesterday.

Story is that they will converge on Taiwan for "war games."

Seven of 11 USN carriers are out at sea too. The USS Reagan has left homeport Yokosuka, Japan. USS Reagan has sailed from Guam. USS Nimitz and Lincoln has departed San Diego. A lot of carriers in or heading towards the Western Pacific.

This should be fun.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8356113/China-plans-deploy-two-new-aircraft-carriers-Taiwan-sparking-fears-invasion.html


China plans to deploy two aircraft carriers off Taiwan for war games to stoke tensions with Washington as Beijing warns of a 'new Cold War' amid virus blame game

By Ralph R. Ortega For Dailymail.com
22:49 EDT 25 May 2020 , updated 02:32 EDT 26 May 2020

China is reportedly sending its two new aircraft carriers into war games near the Pratas Islands, playing into fears that a Taiwan invasion could be next as tensions with the US continue to worsen.

The aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong are currently in Bohai Bay in the Yellow Sea on a combat readiness mission before the massive ships head into the war games. The move comes after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang expressed Beijing's desire to 'reunify' with self-ruled Taiwan, an apparent policy shift.

...


I posted the above five weeks ago :D

With action in Galwan receding, my warmongering self is hoping to see some fireworks in the SCS.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 06 Jul 2020 14:36

2 CVN's in the SCS for a dual carrier ops is a very different thing. 2 carriers in a region is not atypical there. But dual ops is something the USN has done relatively rarely given global deployments (though they have of late picked this competency up). That 7 US CVN's out at sea was a rare event but something that is expected due to COVID with deployments changing around and some being extended to record breaking duration. Dual carrier ops is a rare event by itself and even rarer in the SCS. Furthermore, dynamic bomber deployments concurrent to a dual op and that two with a nuclear capable bomber is totally at a different level in terms of posturing. The USN and USAF are buttoning down their force projection in case the CPC tries to tests the waters and do something in the region which is possible in case it faces internal political resistance to XI.

And this is playing out even in the social media trolling world -

https://twitter.com/chinfo/status/1279779741415833601


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