China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

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chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 10 Mar 2018 20:25

2018 review of the PLAN by Jeff Head, one of the lead chini watchers at Sinodefense. This is his 14th annual review on lizard’s navy. Well respected, Amreeki ex mil.

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/plan-2018-review-jeff-head.t8273/

Some points:

From this writer's perspective, and as a result of conversing with many others and listening to the chatter that is available on the internet, it is clear that the Chinese have a goal of developing at least a six carrier fleet. To begin with this fleet will consist of the carriers they are building incrementally to ultimately attain their goal of having larger, nuclear powered carriers similar to our own.
...

CV-16 STOBAR, Liaoning launched tested, commissioned, and fully operation. Displacing about 65,000 tons and cabable of carrying 24 strike fighters.

CV-17 STOBAR, Launched, ready to start trials, which is an improved version of the first carrier at about 70,000 tons displacement and capable of carrying about 28 strike fighters.

CV-18 CATOBAR, Conventional Power, building, 80-85,000 tons, capable of carrying 35-40 strike aircraft, probably to be launched in the 2021-2022 time frame

CV-19 CATOBAR, Conventional Power, 80-85,000 tons, capable of carrying 35-40 strike aircraft, probably to be launched in the 2023-2024 time frame

CV-20 CATOBAR, Nuclear powered design complete, with EMALS catapults and nuclear power, about 90,000 ton displacement and capable of 50-60 aircraft. Probably a 2026 launch time frame.

CV-21 COATOBAR, Nuclear powered, awaiting scheduling slot, , with EMALS catapults and nuclear power, about 90,000 ton displacement and capable of 50-60 aircraft. Probably a 2028 launch time frame.

...

So, right now, the Chinese are rapidly building four classes of modern surface warfare vessels, the Type 052D and Type 055 destoyers and the Type 054A and Type 056 frigates.

...

Between their destroyers and their larger blue water frigates, the Chinese are going to have a force of over 100 FFGs and DDGs (not including up to 80 of the smaller Type 056 vessels and 75 missile boats) by 2025.

...

The Type 095 will most probably achieve the US Los Angeles class capabilities, perhaps even the improved version of those vessels, in terms of quietness qnd capabilities overall. Their images of them would certainly make on think so.

But, despite appearances and that depiction, they are still two generations behind current US and UK capabilities. But in numbers they could still be dangerous. As it is right now, they have six operational SSNs, all of which are less capable than the US Navy LA Class boats.

...

This class has been upgraded with stealth features and an AIP capability. They have 14-16 of those boats (Yuan class), 12-14 Songs, and 12 kilos. All of these 40+ conventional subs can be dangerous in litttoral waters or at any choke point, like narrow straights.

Their intent would to use them to try and build a defensive ring around major operations they undertook in the vicinity of the mainland, or in the south China Sea and try and employ a screen to keep US SSNs out.



More stuff in the review like coastal patrol, expeditionary craft (LDP/LHD) and carrier aircraft but too much to put here.

My own observation from reading review is the PLAN is particular weak in nuclear subs and had been looking for a good enough design to reproduce in numbers like they have with surface fleet. Their conventional sub program is the polar opposite with large numbers of leading edge AIP boats. But they don’t concern us as they are littoral systems.

With rapid ramp up of our own SSN/SSBNs we can catch up in this space while they flail away at developing a quieter nuke boat.

Their surface and carrier fleets are growing too fast to catch up with in our life time. The long lead times makes it impossible unless we began ordering DDG/FFG classes by the dozens and set hard dates for 4 carrier construction starting today.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Mar 2018 21:50

Rakesh wrote:The strategic level
https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/cove ... 2018-03-08

By Sandeep Unnithan

MARITIME DIMENSION - French air force Rafales fly over the missile frigate INS Tarkash during the Indo-French naval exercise, Varuna, off France in May 2017

Image

Image

Chins seemingly have read WW2 a lot. Their reading is that using a sea only strategy on lines of Japan will lead to failure and that is where they are pushing CPEC/OBOR/BRI or wahtever is in fashion these days. They seem to be thinking that their debt trap machinations will offer them British empire like control of land & manpower to support their vast sea operations. To control the american propaganda in the name of freedom, they are also funding/influencing think tanks, & universities to do the preprocessing and laying a ground work so that when the red empire comes it is heralded as the equalizer and the empire that gives people dignity.
What they are missing again is that they dont have too many allies that can be counted in a war. Vast Indian & american resources may again scupper the vast resources of megalomaniac dictators

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby shiv » 12 Mar 2018 10:14

China's "String of Pearls"
https://youtu.be/UPWq32DP7u8

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Bart S » 12 Mar 2018 11:04

chola wrote:
Their surface and carrier fleets are growing too fast to catch up with in our life time. The long lead times makes it impossible unless we began ordering DDG/FFG classes by the dozens and set hard dates for 4 carrier construction starting today.


Right now, they beat us hands-down on both the money they can throw at the buildup and the sheer production and logistics capability. At this point of time we are not competitive in terms of matching their buildup (though the IN is still powerful enough to dominate the IOR).

We simply cannot afford to try a rapid buildup right now, but we don't need to either. We will be able to do so in about 10 years time when our economy has acquired enough heft.

The real danger is that we lag behind in technological capability and allow China to get a generation or two ahead in terms of tech. This is where we need to play it smart. We need to keep investing in cutting edge R&D and development of platforms, even if we deploy 2-3 to their 20. Just keep churning out improvements and iterations at low volume, and by the time we get to be a 6-7T economy, we will be ready to mass produce them. We can neither match the US/Japan model of high tech/high volume at the moment (and other countries who tried like UK/Germany have had endless problems because of funding and QA issues), nor the Cheeni model of low-medium tech/high volume. We need to be smart and try to be an Israel in this space, with access to all the critical tech (even if not productionized) and develop expertise in the more sophisticated systems including sensors and propulsion - mass producing hulls is great for industry/jobs but at the end of the day is just a factor of investment and scale and can be ramped up later even if we build at low volume, but in case we fall behind on sensors or propulsion it may be tough to catch up.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Neshant » 12 Mar 2018 11:30

ArjunPandit wrote:What they are missing again is that they dont have too many allies that can be counted in a war.


They don't have any large and powerful allies.
Only large and powerful enemies.
And a growing list of countries that do not trust them or their ambitions.

Another thing they lack is soft power.
Their cultural influence is almost zero on a global scale despite their size & wealth.

Nobody is interested in watching chinese movies.
Foreigners are not interested in learning chinese.
The anime, martial arts, cutesy stuff is the hallmark of Japanese culture and they can't claim that.
A few Hollywood movies like "The Last Emperor" (from the late 80s) showcased their rich culture well - but they have not been adept at doing it themselves globally.

The only soft power I can identify that they have is chinese food - which is pretty good!
We're gate crashing that turf with Indo-Chinese "Hakka" fusion restaurants however.
They also have China town which gives them a visible presence in all major cities.
I've never heard of an India town.

But overall, they don't have much in the way of soft power.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby shiv » 12 Mar 2018 14:11

Neshant wrote:I've never heard of an India town.

Only in America maybe. Not true of Britain, some cities of Kaneda and Singapore. There may be other places that I don't know of.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 Mar 2018 20:19

shiv wrote:
Neshant wrote:I've never heard of an India town.

Only in America maybe. Not true of Britain, some cities of Kaneda and Singapore. There may be other places that I don't know of.

Its another thing, that we have some truly "indian" areas but they are not called india town like chinese, coz there is no money from big industrialists (funded by chinese govt)
New york Queens has: Jackson heights which is truly a reflection of Indiannes: Today's Indian State, Nepalese, Beedis, tibetis. And yes there is a Kalpana chawla marg there. There used to be pakis, but 9/11 made them find pastures away from police gaze or hide under Indian/Beedi names. If compared to singapore, it is same or bigger. New Jersey too has indian street. Havent been to west coast, but considering the no. of indians I am sure there will be.
Correction: Jackson heights is in queens not in manhattan
Last edited by ArjunPandit on 12 Mar 2018 21:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby shiv » 12 Mar 2018 20:43

ArjunPandit wrote:
shiv wrote:Only in America maybe. Not true of Britain, some cities of Kaneda and Singapore. There may be other places that I don't know of.

Its another thing, that we have some truly "indian" areas but they are not called india town like chinese, coz there is no money from big industrialists (funded by chinese govt)
New york manhattan has: Jackson heights which is truly a reflection of Indiannes: Today's Indian State, Nepalese, Beedis, tibetis. And yes there is a Kalpana chawla marg there. There used to be pakis, but 9/11 made them find pastures away from police gaze or hide under Indian/Beedi names. If compared to singapore, it is same or bigger. New Jersey too has indian street. Havent been to west coast, but considering the no. of indians I am sure there will be.

There is another factor that has been discussed once in a while on BRF.

The Chinese are a "known" ethnic minority in the US. Indians were unknown till well after the 70s and more so after the 90s. There were Chinatowns in the US long ago - while Indians - as citizens of British colonies were simply not seen as separate at all. On the contrary we Indians constantly swallow English literature - which was UK dominated till the 60s but has now become US dominated. We quote western works but are blind where the west is blind. We quote Samuel Huntington but we do not understand the significance of something that Huntington himself admitted - that is ignorance of the Indian civilization.

Because of our own "western education" and "US/UK tinted glasses" even we Indians do not know where to slot a developing India in the world. We still speak of India as a sidekick to the western world - and underdeveloped ex-colony. We are unable to place ourselves in the world as a nation that matters because our minds are constructed not to see India as a separate entity with a separate identity of power and economy other than poverty, open shitting and disease

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby kit » 13 Mar 2018 03:13

Neshant wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:What they are missing again is that they dont have too many allies that can be counted in a war.


Another thing they lack is soft power.
Their cultural influence is almost zero on a global scale despite their size & wealth.

Nobody is interested in watching chinese movies. .

But overall, they don't have much in the way of soft power.


don't get gung-ho .. half of Hollywood studios are owned by Chinese and the rest have a significant investment from them .. just a matter of time !!

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby srai » 13 Mar 2018 05:37

Neshant wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:What they are missing again is that they dont have too many allies that can be counted in a war.


They don't have any large and powerful allies.
Only large and powerful enemies.
And a growing list of countries that do not trust them or their ambitions.

Another thing they lack is soft power.
Their cultural influence is almost zero on a global scale despite their size & wealth.

Nobody is interested in watching chinese movies.
Foreigners are not interested in learning chinese.
The anime, martial arts, cutesy stuff is the hallmark of Japanese culture and they can't claim that.
A few Hollywood movies like "The Last Emperor" (from the late 80s) showcased their rich culture well - but they have not been adept at doing it themselves globally.

The only soft power I can identify that they have is chinese food - which is pretty good!
We're gate crashing that turf with Indo-Chinese "Hakka" fusion restaurants however.
They also have China town which gives them a visible presence in all major cities.
I've never heard of an India town.

But overall, they don't have much in the way of soft power.


You need to read more ;)

They have reach everywhere - raw materials, manufacture, infrastructure development in third world countries, financial investments, FOREX etc. They are also the second largest economy (GDP) and third largest arms exporter. They are the largest economy by purchasing power parity.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Neshant » 13 Mar 2018 10:25

srai wrote:
Neshant wrote:
They don't have any large and powerful allies.
Only large and powerful enemies.
And a growing list of countries that do not trust them or their ambitions.

Another thing they lack is soft power.
Their cultural influence is almost zero on a global scale despite their size & wealth.

Nobody is interested in watching chinese movies.
Foreigners are not interested in learning chinese.
The anime, martial arts, cutesy stuff is the hallmark of Japanese culture and they can't claim that.
A few Hollywood movies like "The Last Emperor" (from the late 80s) showcased their rich culture well - but they have not been adept at doing it themselves globally.

The only soft power I can identify that they have is chinese food - which is pretty good!
We're gate crashing that turf with Indo-Chinese "Hakka" fusion restaurants however.
They also have China town which gives them a visible presence in all major cities.
I've never heard of an India town.

But overall, they don't have much in the way of soft power.


You need to read more ;)

They have reach everywhere - raw materials, manufacture, infrastructure development in third world countries, financial investments, FOREX etc. They are also the second largest economy (GDP) and third largest arms exporter. They are the largest economy by purchasing power parity.


Ironic you say "you should read more" but you didn't read (or understand) the meaning of the word soft power.

It has nothing o do with wealth.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby srai » 14 Mar 2018 02:37

^^^
Yes, soft power is gained with wealth and how it’s spent ;)

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2018 05:03

Did the chini fix their J-10 widowmaker by altering its Russian engine?

http://m.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2137373/china-irons-out-high-altitude-jet-fighter-engine-faults

Chinese military releases video of aircraft on smooth runs in country’s mountainous southwest, suggesting advances to problem-plagued AL-31F engines

...

The jets are part of China’s fleet of third-generation lightweight multi-role fighter aircraft and are powered by Russian AL-31F engines.

Military observers said the engines had previously lost power above 3,000 metres, leading to a string of accidents.

In September 2015, a J-10 from the former Shenyang Military Region crashed on a night patrol when the plane climbed above 3,350 metres, state-run China Central Television reported. The pilot ejected to safety.


So the Al-31 flames out at 3K meters? We have the same issues with the MKI?

It would suck if they fixed their russkie engines while we haven’t ours.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Indranil » 16 Mar 2018 06:28

chola wrote:So the Al-31 flames out at 3K meters? We have the same issues with the MKI?

It would suck if they fixed their russkie engines while we haven’t ours.

Thoda aaram pharmao yaar. Somebody wrote a crappy article that J-10 could not fly over 3000 mtrs and you believed it. Then you extrapolated it to the Su-30MKI as well. Learn to sift crap from the rest. 3,000 mtrs is really low for an aircraft.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2018 06:57

Indranil wrote:
chola wrote:So the Al-31 flames out at 3K meters? We have the same issues with the MKI?

It would suck if they fixed their russkie engines while we haven’t ours.

Thoda aaram pharmao yaar. Somebody wrote a crappy article that J-10 could not fly over 3000 mtrs and you believed it. Then you extrapolated it to the Su-30MKI as well. Learn to sift crap from the rest. 3,000 mtrs is really low for an aircraft.



Yeah, you’re right Saar. I’m Amreeki educated and can’t do metric system conversion. Mango brain just put two and two together — J-10 always crashing and our MKI also fly with Al-31.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Prithwiraj » 16 Mar 2018 06:59

chola wrote:
Indranil wrote:Thoda aaram pharmao yaar. Somebody wrote a crappy article that J-10 could not fly over 3000 mtrs and you believed it. Then you extrapolated it to the Su-30MKI as well. Learn to sift crap from the rest. 3,000 mtrs is really low for an aircraft.



Yeah, you’re right Saar. I’m Amreeki educated and can’t do metric system conversion. Mango brain just put two and two together — J-10 always crashing and our MKI also fly with Al-31.


Why so serious seriously

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby shiv » 16 Mar 2018 07:31

MKI at Leh. No sound. It is not possible to say if engines are running or not.
Image


J-10 in Lhasa. Engines not running
Image

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby shiv » 16 Mar 2018 07:39


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 16 Mar 2018 10:50

Chola- maybe the problem with the J-10 is not in the Russian Engine but the Chinese FBW and Chinese components are faulty but the PlAAF cant blame local Chinese Industry saying the J-10 is a crappy design.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Pratyush » 16 Mar 2018 17:04

Maybe the PRC pilot's can't fly above 3000 metres. The pictures posted by Shiv support my theory. As they're lined up on the tarmac. With no evidence of having flown to lahsa. :(( :((

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2018 19:08

Aditya_V wrote:Chola- maybe the problem with the J-10 is not in the Russian Engine but the Chinese FBW and Chinese components are faulty but the PlAAF cant blame local Chinese Industry saying the J-10 is a crappy design.


Very likely with the fbw since I read their one of their J-15s also crashed and killed a naval pilot because of the fbw. That said, we can’t ignore the Russkie engine issue because we see it in our MKIs as well though not specifically the “3000 meters” one. The J-10 is an Israeli not Chinese design so I have to assume some competency there.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 16 Mar 2018 19:28

If I take the article at face value, what was the Chini boast about defeating India at Dokhlam in a week's time?

What happens to all the dhoti shivering, about TFTA China overwhelming un-funded Indian forces with ... planes that don't fly above 3k meters.

According to the report, the Chini jokers forgot to test their jets about 3k mtrs and Indian soldiers grabing their bull dozers made them realize that. :rotfl:

For all we know, they might be bring their J10 on to Lhasa using transport aircrafts in pieces and put them together !

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby shiv » 20 Mar 2018 23:39

My take on China's plans in the Doklam area in 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yii-I6Ih1IY

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Neshant » 21 Mar 2018 13:07


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby shiv » 21 Mar 2018 14:26

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... JtNZK.html
China’s new J-20 fighter jet is not stealthy enough and the Indian Air Force (IAF) has the capability to tackle the threat posed by it, said a senior air force officer familiar with Beijing’s military modernisation plans.

“With the S-400 Triumf air defence missile systems being bought from Russia and our existing medium-range surface -to- air missile systems, we are quite capable of shooting down the J-20,” the officer said and added that the J-20 was not a true fifth-generation fighter as “neither is the aircraft’s design stealthy, nor can it supercruise with the existing WS-10 engines”.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 21 Mar 2018 16:20

Cheen seems to be enroute to building submerged arsenal ships with two concepts studied. my money is on the submarine type model

perhaps around 100-150 vl cells for medium sized missiles
https://www.popsci.com/futuristic-chine ... ves#page-6

makes sense for a land attack or third party cued anti-ship role where it does not need radar and should lie low(literally) and EM silent

Image

these submerged barges can be made quiet, have a low top speed and mainly for green water belt fighting , less vulernable than surface ships. they would undertake the TLAM barge role of the modified Ohio class.

the Type55 cruisers will anyway need to go active radar for fleet protection and would mostly cart the SAM payload.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 21 Mar 2018 16:21

the next move is up to you brar sahib?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 21 Mar 2018 16:22

Arsenal Ship? I wonder where I've heart that before :)

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 21 Mar 2018 16:24

^^ the modified ohio class? one of these is said to be fired 150 TLAMs into libya when the war started.
against medium power adversaries these could be devastating both in land attack and for overload of ASM salvo.

keeping things non-nuclear and cheap and austere, they could build a dozen of these.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby IndraD » 21 Mar 2018 16:29

shiv wrote:My take on China's plans in the Doklam area in 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yii-I6Ih1IY

your video on Doklam was excellent work & shared widely on SM by many, I suggest pls put water mark next time on videos so that you/Rohit Vats get credit.
Last edited by IndraD on 21 Mar 2018 16:34, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 21 Mar 2018 16:32

Singha wrote:^^ the modified ohio class? one of these is said to be fired 150 TLAMs into libya when the war started.
against medium power adversaries these could be devastating both in land attack and for overload of ASM salvo.

keeping things non-nuclear and cheap and austere, they could build a dozen of these.


That and others. The US Navy along with DARPA evaluated more than half a dozen Arsenal Ship proposals back in the 1990s, and the concept goes back even earlier. It still re-surfaces from time to time in discussions at the USNA organized events that I attend and through the its publications. Others have looked into this as well so it is most definitly not anything original. The Chinese have a strong affinity for basing a lot of their capabilities on US concepts of operations from the 1980s and 1990s including offensive fires given the similarities between the DF-21 and the Pershing-II.

Exceprts from a Jane's article from the mid-1990s -

Rear Admiral Daniel J. Murphy, director of the USN's surface‐warfare division, said the Arsenal Ship meets a real current requirement, and acts as a bridge to the SC‐21 future combatant (which he describes as "ill‐defined at present"), which is not expected to come under contract until Fiscal Year 2003. He said the Arsenal Ship is best defined as providing multifunctional support to the land battle in its role as the "battleship of the 21st century." Weapons are likely to include a 155mm gun firing extended‐range guided munitions out to 100nm (185km), probably the Tactical Missile System (TACM), and Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM), plus a Theater Ballistic Missile (TBM). Theater Air and Ballistic Missile Defense weapons launched from Arsenal Ships and controlled by Aegis cruisers and destroyers will extend a defensive umbrella from the sea well over the land, enabling US Marine Corps (USMC) forces to go ashore and, if necessary, "prepare the battlespace" for follow‐on army and land‐based US Air Force (USAF) units.

Future strike weapons and advanced guns could, as Rear Admiral Mike Mullen, head of the surface‐warfare plans, programs and requirements branch, explained, "reach out and `touch' in ways we're only beginning to imagine today." At least that is what advocates of the ship concept are saying. The various proposals are not without their detractors, however. "If stealth is what's needed," a retired senior USN submariner explained, "go with a submarine. We have submarines that can do all of the Arsenal Ship's missions today." Some traditionalists have called for resurrection of the four Iowa‐class battleships.

The Arsenal Ship has at least gained a momentum that (for the time being) cannot be turned aside. The late Admiral J.M. "Mike" Boorda, US Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), and a significant driving force behind the Arsenal Ship concept, said before his death in May 1996, that "battleships have seen their day... we need to think of another way to deliver ordnance ashore." In what some are describing as a marriage of convenience, the USN and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) have pooled their talents and ‐ more importantly ‐ their resources into the Arsenal Ship.


In the 2020s, when you have Tactical conventional HBGV systems that can cover 4000+ km (something the US has demonstrated with the CPGS program) you really don't need to think shorter range and dedicated platforms. Roll that capability throughout the DDG and even submarine fleet and you have more flexibility and distributed lethality and are not reliant on single points of failures which will be the primary focus of the adversary submarines every time they sail into the region.

Packing a ship with a hundred, multi-million $ ballistic missiles may sound really sweet but it may turn out be quite an expensive proposition when a torpedo strikes it given the offensive, not defensive, or even a balanced, mission focus. The main question for China is - How far from the mainland can their ships and submarines sail out before they begin loosing their ability to control the undersea domain against the entire spectrum of anti-submarine warfare capability that the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India or their other potential adversaries can bring to bear either individually or collectively? That is likely the biggest roadblock to their blue water ambitions.

Their problem isn't delivering fires at intermediate ranges, which they can using their rocket forces. Their problem is surviving a direct fight with an equal, superior or a more experienced Navy. From the USN's thinking perspective they don't foresee an Alfred Mahan style great Navy battle but more asymmetrical capabilities utilized by China to deny the US navy access into a theater that it may be operating in..i.e. keep the USN carriers, submarines and ships out while it executes whatever offensive action that it may in a region..This is easier done around the first island chain but the moment you step out, the burden to effectively execute such a denial strategy is significant especially against an adversary that always fights with an expeditionary capability and in instances when you really do not have capable allies as China does not in the region (they have disputes with virtually all of their neighbors).

Pratyush
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Pratyush » 21 Mar 2018 22:12

Brar what happens when Philippines totally lays down for the PRC.

pankajs
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby pankajs » 21 Mar 2018 22:28

5 US bases in Philippines and upgrade at one or two has recently been approved under the current Philippines admin. Doesn't look like US is leaving Philippines anytime soon. Hedging all around.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-phil ... SKBN15A18Z
Philippines says U.S. military to upgrade bases, defense deal intact

shiv
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby shiv » 21 Mar 2018 22:59

IndraD wrote:your video on Doklam was excellent work & shared widely on SM by many, I suggest pls put water mark next time on videos so that you/Rohit Vats get credit.

Thank you IndraD - I really must get down to doing that. YouTube has a feature for that IIRC

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 21 Mar 2018 23:08

Pratyush wrote:Brar what happens when Philippines totally lays down for the PRC.


This is the strategic game and will be played over the decades that come. Decoupling would actively be pursued just as it was during the Cold War. For the US's part, it has to ensure that its conventional capability can exist and maneuver in the region amidst the ever and rapidly increasing Chinese conventional capability.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 22 Mar 2018 08:32

if cheen gets hold of philippines as a military ally, its game over for usn in west pacific....it has 7000 islands and a wide coverage. there will be no bases and no areas to sneak around. with SCS and ECS as a controlled bastion and pearl harbour type PLAN base in subic bay, the game would move to the middle & south pacific as in WW2 . PLANAF heavy bombers would be prowling all over the rim of indonesia, new guinea, australia, polynesia, aleutians ....

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 22 Mar 2018 09:20

Variety, the trade magazine for the Amreeki film industry, reported that the Chini war pic “Operation Red Sea” had just reached $580 which made it, along with “Wolf Warrior 2” from last year, the two top grossing films in PRC’s history. Looks like the CCP propaganda arm has gone Hollywood.

That said, the chini public inexplicably (no intense sense of hate or rivalry with desis?) pays out more for hindi films opening there than even India. Bajrangi Bhaijaan has made $37M so far and is projected to cross $50M which would be more than it had made in India (and BB is the top grossing B’wood film in India of all time — second to Tamil Baahubali.) “Dangal” and “Secret Superstar” both made $100M more in Cheen than in Bharat.

Posting here because the chini war movies point to nationalistic population but one which is pretty rational and cosmopolitan — par for course given how they imported music and film from the US, Japan and SoKorea as well.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 22 Mar 2018 15:10

Singha wrote:if cheen gets hold of philippines as a military ally, its game over for usn in west pacific....it has 7000 islands and a wide coverage. there will be no bases and no areas to sneak around. with SCS and ECS as a controlled bastion and pearl harbour type PLAN base in subic bay, the game would move to the middle & south pacific as in WW2 . PLANAF heavy bombers would be prowling all over the rim of indonesia, new guinea, australia, polynesia, aleutians ....


Highly unlikely, PRC is already caused a lot of Miltary takleef to the Philipines. The Chinese look at Philipines through the same lens as the Japanese did before WW2 and No less than President Xi himself has stated either Philipines agrees to sprately's and Nine dash line or they will be invaded.

It is more likely of PRC invasion of Philipines rather than the these 2 becoming allies. Remember the religious affiliation of Philipines also will matter.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-philippines-china/duterte-says-chinas-xi-threatened-war-if-philippines-drills-for-oil-idUSKCN18F1DJ

http://www.atimes.com/article/china-threaten-war-philippines/

“[Xi] replied to me, ‘We are friends. We do not want to quarrel with you…We want to maintain the present warm relationship. But if you force the issue, we’ll go to war.’” Duterte said in comments to the local press.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Philip » 22 Mar 2018 18:23

China's relentless pursuit of building subs,far outstripping its Asian rivals including India.

https://www.newstimes.com/technology/bu ... 768502.php

China's growing submarine force is 'armed to the teeth' — and the rest of the Pacific is racing to keep up
Christopher Woody, provided by
Published 4:52 pm, Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Countries in East Asia, led by China, have been pursuing a military buildup for years.
Submarines, flexible platforms with strategic uses, have been a particular focus.
Uncertainty about the balance of power in the region has stoked countries' pursuit of military hardware.

In October 2006, a Chinese Song-class diesel-electric submarine capable of carrying torpedoes and antiship missiles surfaced within firing range of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk.

"Some navy officers interpreted it as a 'Gotcha!' move," journalist Michael Fabey wrote in his 2017 book, "Crashback." It was "a warning from China that US carrier groups could no longer expect to operate with impunity."

Almost exactly nine years later, China again demonstrated its growing naval prowess, when a Kilo-class diesel-electric attack sub shadowed the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan near southern Japan.

One defense official told The Washington Free Beacon that the sub's appearance "set off alarm bells on the Reagan," though there was no sign of threatening behavior.

The US still "owns the undersea realm in the western Pacific right now and is determined" to maintain it, Fabey told Business Insider in a February interview. But "China has grown — in terms of maritime power, maritime projection — more quickly than any country in the region," he added. "The growth has been incredible."

That expansion has prompted similar moves by its neighbors, who are asking whether China will abide by or remake the rules of the road.

'Armed to the teeth'
USS North Dakota Virginia Class SubmarineUS Navy photo

Since 2002, China has built 10 nuclear subs: six Shang I- and II-class nuclear-powered attack subs — capable of firing antiship and land-attack missiles — and four Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile subs, according to a 2017 US Defense Department assessment.

*(almost one N-boat a year,a tremendous feat and capability,which China is going to double by 2020).

"China’s four operational JIN-class SSBNs represent China’s first credible, seabased nuclear deterrent," the assessment notes. Documents accidentally posted online by a Chinese shipbuilder also revealed plans for a new, quieter nuclear-powered attack submarine as well as a separate "quiet" submarine project.

The brunt of China's undersea force, however, is its diesel-electric subs. It has access to 54 diesel-electric subs, but it's not clear if all of them are in service, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which said China's current operational diesel-electric fleet was likely 48 subs.

The Defense Department believes China could have about 70 subs by 2020. While it looks unlikely to build more nuclear subs by then, adding 20 Yuan-class diesel-electric subs "seems to be entirely reasonable," IISS says. :eek:

That expansion would require more investment in training and maintenance, but diesel-electric subs are potent, Fabey said.

PLA China naval submarine navyReuters

"The submarine force [China is] putting out there is substantial, and partly because they have a lot of diesel-electrics and nuclear forces," he told Business Insider. "Those diesel-electrics especially are ... armed to the teeth. They're armed with antiship missiles that really can give anyone, including the US forces, serious pause."

China's subs are also stretching their legs.

In May 2016, a Chinese nuclear-powered attack sub docked in Karachi, Pakistan — the first port call in South Asia by a Chinese nuclear attack sub, according to the Defense Department. (Chinese subs previously made port calls in Sri Lanka, much to India's chagrin.)

In January 2017, a Chinese attack sub returning from anti-piracy patrols in the western Indian Ocean stopped in a Malaysian port on the South China Sea, over which Beijing has made expansive and contested claims. A Malaysian official said it was the first time a Chinese sub had visited the country.

In January 2018, a Chinese Shang-class nuclear-powered attack sub was detected in the contiguous zone around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea — the first confirmed identification of a Chinese sub that area. That wasn't the first unannounced maneuver by Chinese subs in the East China Sea, but those islands are disputed, and Japan protested the sub's presence in that zone.

"You're seeing Chinese submarines farther and farther and farther away" from China, Fabey said. "Chinese subs now make routine patrols into the Indian Ocean ... This is a very big deal, just in terms of what you have to think is out there."

'Driving the Chinese absolutely crazy'
Chinese submarine in Senkaku watersJapanese Ministry of Defense

The US Navy has roughly 50 nuclear-powered attack subs. But many are aging, and the Navy's most recent force-structure analysis said 66 attack subs were needed.

US Navy Adm. Harry Harris, head of Pacific Command, has said his command has half the subs it needs to meet its peacetime requirements. Adm. John Richardson, chief of naval operations, has also said maintenance backlogs could hinder efforts to deploy additional subs in the event of a conflict.

A sub shortfall was expected in the mid-2020s, as production of new Virginia-class attack subs was reduced after production of new Colombia-class ballistic-missile subs started in 2021. But the Navy has said US industry can continue to build two Virginia-class subs a year, even after starting to build one Columbia-class sub a year in 2021.

The 2018 budget included also money for increased production of Virginia-class subs — which are "the creme de la creme," Fabey said.

China's neighbors are also racing to add subs, looking not only for a military edge, but also to keep an eye on their turf.

Diesel-electrics are relatively cheap, and countries like Russia and China are willing to sell them, Fabey said. "So you have this big proliferation of diesel-electric subs, because with just the purchase of a few diesel-electric subs, a nation can develop a strategic force."

USS John Warner submarineDaniel Brown/Business Insider

"All those countries, they're the home team, so they don't need to have nuclear subs necessarily to go anywhere [and] project power," he said. "They want to just project power in their little neighborhoods, and that's why diesel-electrics are so amazingly good."

"When you go and you go down to the thermals, the different layers of the ocean, it becomes very hard to detect subs ... and you shut off everything except for electric power — it puts out less of a signal than a light bulb would," Fabey added.

Between 2009 and 2016, Vietnam bought six Russian-made Kilo-class subs. That force "is driving the Chinese absolutely crazy," Fabey said, "because China can no longer just operate in the Gulf of Tonkin, for example, at will." :mrgreen:
*(India should further engage with Vietnam so thta we too have access to theri naval bases and regularly operate our subs in the Indo-China Sea (ICS)

Japan is also growing its navy, which had 18 subs in early 2016. In November, it launched its 10th Soryu-class diesel-electric sub, and in March it commissioned its ninth Soryu-class sub. Those subs have air-independent propulsion systems that allow them to remain submerged for up to two weeks. They also have quieting technology, can carry torpedoes and antiship missiles, and excel at navigating tough seascapes.

Indonesia, which had two subs as of spring 2017, is looking to add subs that can operate in shallow coastal waters. In August 2017, it commissioned its first attack sub in 34 years — a diesel-electric capable of carrying torpedoes and guided missiles and of performing anti-surface and anti-sub warfare.

In early 2017, Indonesia was working with or in talks with South Korean, French, and Russian shipbuilders to acquire more subs. (Jakarta has since reduced its original requirement for 12 new subs by 2024 to eight.)

Japan Maritime diesel electric submarine SoryuReuters/Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force

Taiwan, whose efforts to buy foreign subs to join its four aging subs have been thwarted by China, announced a domestic sub-building program in spring 2017.

India already more than a dozen subs in active service. The country's first domestic nuclear-powered ballistic-missile sub, INS Arihant, was commissioned in late 2016, after a seven-year development process. The next Arihant-class sub, INS Aridaman, was poised for launch in late 2017. India's latest sub, the diesel-electric, first-in-class INS Kalvari, was commissioned in December 2017.
The next two Kalvari-class subs, built by a French firm, have already arrived. The six and last Kalvari-class sub is due to join the fleet in 2020. In July 2017, New Dehli contacted foreign shipyards with a request for information about building its next six nonnuclear subs.

India's efforts have been plagued by delays, however. The Kalvari was supposed to be delivered in 2012 but was four years late. Mistakes have also set India back — the Arihant, for example, has been out of service since early 2017, when it flooded because a hatch was left open as it submerged.

India has expressed considerable concern about Chinese naval activity in the Indian Ocean, which includes submarine patrols, as well as its efforts to court countries in the region.

India navy Kalvari submarineIndian navy

Beijing has sold subs to Bangladesh, which has bought two, Pakistan, which has bought eight, and Thailand, which may buy up to four.
Countries buying Chinese subs rely on China's naval officers and technicians for support and maintenance — which extends Beijing's influence.
"I believe that's a counter to the increasing encroachment by Chinese forces," Fabey said of India's naval activity

"What the two countries have established on land, they're now looking to establish in the ocean, India especially," he added. "It's not about to let China encroach just willy-nilly."

All these countries are likely to face challenges developing and maintaining a sub force, Fabey said, pointing to the case of Argentina's ARA San Juan, a diesel-electric sub lost with all hands in the South Atlantic last year. But subs are not the only military hardware in demand in East Asia, and the buildup comes alongside uncertainty about the balance of power in the region.

Apprehension about China's growth has been tempered by increasing economic reliance on Beijing. And the current and previous US administration have left countries in the region, including longtime allies, unsure about what role the US is willing to play there.

"Everyone out in Asia is on one hand scared of China, and the other hand, they need China for trade," Fabey said. "Also there's a real sense of, 'China's right here, America's on the other side of the world.'"

"And there's a sense of reevaluating China," he added, "because if you don't have the 500-pound gorilla from the West, then you've got to worry about the 500-pound dragon in the East a little bit more."


shiv
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby shiv » 22 Mar 2018 23:09

I hope those diesel electric subs can sail 8000 km under the sea - so they can surface off Vishakapatnam. They need to be careful not to scrape their bottoms in Malacca strait with a 25 meter depth..


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