China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

[Prasad]

Chola,
right idea, wrong country. Khan has a massive MIC that needs to be fed for a lot of purposes. The Next Big Threat always needs to be there to get appropriations passed. Obama was pilloried for reducing funding so much so that USAF had to cut down on presence at many airshows in 2013. Guess how popular that was with both the military and the general public. Here, it only gives ammunition to the idiots who jump 'Imports onlee' at the drop of a hat. Velvet glove, iron hand needed onlee. Drumming up the big bad wolf image is needed, but needs to be carefully calibrated at important times to ensure proper pressure applications. For all his bluster, did you notice doorknob didnt go ballistic during doklam?

[Prasad]

To give you another example of why our media is worthless. After the Nepal earthquake, our media ensured we lost all goodwill by being utter idiots. Food for thought.

[Singha]

it even has a cloth over the glass canopy to protect from heat as real fighters do.

imo a PLAAF pilot has defected to USA via some intermediate hop just as viktor belenko brought the Mig25 to japan.

[chola]

Chola,
right idea, wrong country. Khan has a massive MIC that needs to be fed for a lot of purposes. The Next Big Threat always needs to be there to get appropriations passed. Obama was pilloried for reducing funding so much so that USAF had to cut down on presence at many airshows in 2013. Guess how popular that was with both the military and the general public. Here, it only gives ammunition to the idiots who jump 'Imports onlee' at the drop of a hat. Velvet glove, iron hand needed onlee. Drumming up the big bad wolf image is needed, but needs to be carefully calibrated at important times to ensure proper pressure applications. For all his bluster, did you notice doorknob didnt go ballistic during doklam?

Drumming up the right pressure points is needed indeed but that must be done by getting the threat assessment correctly. The correct threat assessment of Cheen is that the danger comes from their MIC not their military.

Cheen cannot fight and does not want to fight. See their reactions to Sudanese guerillas for the former and their complete lack of war experience from the past 40 years for the latter.

It is NOT a serious threat military to India. Not in any likely force on force scenario. At Doklam, we owned 15 to 1 manpower advantages along the entire goddam border and should have annihilated them the second they mouthed off.

The real danger comes from their MIC pumping out ships and aircraft to flood the gray zones and global commons during every day of the year when we are NOT at war.

Their position had strengthened to monstrous levels by NOT fighting.

So the proper thought process should be:

1) Cheen has shitty warfighting ability so we do NOT need to spend like $30B on new firangi gear (57 RFI, 36 MMRCA 1.0, 124 MMRCA 2.0) to compliment the overwhelming advantages we already have in quantity and quality against an opponent who doesn’t fight anyways,

2) We can and must use that $30B on Tejas, AMCA and our own MIC because in the long one we need a MIC to keep up with Cheen not in war but during peace.

So being blunt about the crappiness of chini systems versus our firangi gear does nothing to help our situation. It only exacerbates it by fooling people into thinking that we need phoren systems. We do not. We can and should spend every available rupee on domestic products because we ALREADY own overwhelming advantages versus a failed religious state in Pak and a non-warrior militarily-handicapped one in Cheen.

We should treat the chini challenge just like Khan does. Use it to hype up the need to build out the MIC.

[Karan M]

Yes, well said. The Khan MIC has a vested interest in playing up PRC capabilities as does the military, but both will know the real state of affairs given HUMINT and TECHINT analysis of PRC programs. Only that the IAF Chief was blunt enough to point out issues with the J-20 configuration, but it's not as if Unkil of all places wouldn't know.

In my opinion, we should have the same vested interest as Khan in playing up PRC capabilities for the sake of our MIC.

In fact, we have a greater need as our budget is smaller as a percentage of GDP than the US’s.

The IAF chief being blunt about the capabilities of our foreign gear (Bars and Rafale) over the J-20 points to us yet again using imports to match any perceived threat. It is an own goal by the IAF on the local MIC against the bean counters in the GOI. It will justify spending many multiples of billions on 57 RFI and MMRCA 2.0 over what will be spent on Tejas and AMCA.

I like Khan’s reaction more than ours. The US MIC is in hyperdrive right now and practically giddy that there is a national focus on a main rival. It will mean greater budgets, more R&D and newer systems. They and the PRC will drive themselves in an ever expanding frenzy that will separate them from the rest of the world.

Errmm the IAF Chief was not blunt about foreign gear. He was blunt about the capabilities of the opponent and that there was no need for panic.

He of course did that after getting his 36x Rafale, 83x Tejas Mk1A, and 5xsquadrons of S-400 cleared.

You clearly don't read about the amount of advancement being made in both domestic/imported capabilities regarding our core requirements, so there is no point in repeating the obvious.. that we don't need to behave as the Khan does, while our actions on the ground speak for themselves.

[Karan M]

1) Cheen has shitty warfighting ability so we do NOT need to spend like $30B on new firangi gear (57 RFI, 36 MMRCA 1.0, 124 MMRCA 2.0) to compliment the overwhelming advantages we already have in quantity and quality against an opponent who doesn’t fight anyways,

2) We can and must use that $30B on Tejas, AMCA and our own MIC because in the long one we need a MIC to keep up with Cheen not in war but during peace. .

I do wish you read more and spent less time harping on the wrong details when the basic information has been provided already.

It does seem you selectively cherry pick data to suit your pre-decided worldview.

That $30Bn mentioned in the prior page was for ALL acquisitions. Not merely imported. And clearly included production orders for $16Bn of domestic acquisitions, with $14Bn of DRDO developed items alone. Given the huge cost differential between domestic production and imported items, especially for DRDO developed gear (compare the cost of an Akash SAM unit to an OTS import of a comparable system), India is actually getting far more bang for the buck for its domestic items.

Just go through the e-book. Its straightforward.
https://mod.gov.in/ebook-2018/mod-ebook.html#p=26

India is also extremely thrifty and seeks to indigenize every item it can, in contrast to your non-factual harping around TOT and what not, to the point of indigenizing even when it saves $400K per tank engine (http://www.sainiksamachar.nic.in/Latest ... ish/h1.htm).
http://www.sainiksamachar.nic.in/Latest ... ish/h1.htm

If you must post, please stick to facts. The existing orders (108 MMRCA 2.0 has not even been tendered yet) show an equal split (with a slight advantage to domestic systems) between imports and domestic orders & the quantum of orders placed on domestic systems dwarfs imports (140 domestic vs 60 imported radars for instance). As those 108 MMRCA 2.0's come in, it must be equally tempered with the realization of MOD support for an equal number of Tejas Mk2s (likely double judging by AM Nambiar's plans) and the AMCA.

Yes, there are still legacy muddles to deal with - e.g. small arms, but they are peanuts compared to the overall quantum of progress.

We don't need to hype up the opponent or panic when it comes to building up our own capabilities. We'll just plan for it.

[chola]

it even has a cloth over the glass canopy to protect from heat as real fighters do.

imo a PLAAF pilot has defected to USA via some intermediate hop just as viktor belenko brought the Mig25 to japan.

Lol. Fun fact: the Japanese (and USAF) returned the Foxbat (with a few missing pieces) after taking it apart. The “super fighter” turned turned out to be a surprisingly primitive rocket-like aircraft that most likely wrecked its engines after a trip or two at high speed.

The US might keep this one though since it includes Amreeki tech from hacking.

[Karan M]

And that surprisingly primitive rocket-like aircraft shot through carefully staged F-15 ambushes in Desert Storm, shot down a F-18 and then returned to base unharmed.

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/who-sh ... 55bb966df5

[chola]

Karan ji, you are trying to convince me that our MIC is in a good place but what harm is using this challenge from the chinis to make it even bigger and better? Are we where we need to be already? Even the US, with its huge MIC is making use of this challenge.

In my opinion, we do not need to be spending those billions for firangi gear against an opponent that cannot fight but whose MIC is the only reason we even have this chini mil thread in the first place (certainly the thread is not to talk about any chini mil actions — they haven’t done anything properly “military” in the lifetime of most of us!)

[Karan M]

it even has a cloth over the glass canopy to protect from heat as real fighters do.

imo a PLAAF pilot has defected to USA via some intermediate hop just as viktor belenko brought the Mig25 to japan.

Or the PRC copied a US AFB down to the roof.

[Karan M]

Karan ji, you are trying to convince me that our MIC is in a good place but what harm is using this challenge from the chinis to make it even bigger and better? Are we where need to be already? Even the US, with its huge MIC is making use of this challenge.

Chola, if you want to use this forum as a propaganda group to hype the PRC up claiming it is somehow beneficial to India, sorry that won't be allowed to occur and nor is it necessary.
India does not need to act like a chicken little about the PRC.
If Unkil wants to do it, its their wont, India need not ape the US mindlessly everytime.
Next, you'll want us to buy TSP off as Unkil did in Afghanistan.

People have already explained the risks in manufacturing a fake scare and then becoming victim to that hype. If you won't understand it or choose not to, we can't do much about the matter.

[chola]

Karan ji, you are trying to convince me that our MIC is in a good place but what harm is using this challenge from the chinis to make it even bigger and better? Are we where need to be already? Even the US, with its huge MIC is making use of this challenge.

Chola, if you want to use this forum as a propaganda group to hype the PRC up claiming it is somehow beneficial to India, sorry that won't be allowed to occur and nor is it necessary.
India does not need to act like a chicken little about the PRC.
If Unkil wants to do it, its their wont, India need not ape the US mindlessly everytime.
Next, you'll want us to buy TSP off as Unkil did in Afghanistan.

People have already explained the risks in manufacturing a fake scare and then becoming victim to that hype. If you won't understand it or choose not to, we can't do much about the matter.

Actually Karan, that is a mis-characterization of my POV and I think you know it.

My thoughts are well stated in this thread and elsewhere that the PRC is not a viable threat militarily. We will win a fight handily in any realistic scenario — far from the chicken little allegory. It is the chicken little mindset leading to the single engine fighter (as the good Admiral puts it) that I dislike most of all.

I want us to use the chini challenge to further our own MIC and not use it to further the MIC of others. The fact we are getting better bang for the buck for our own systems is even more of a reason to not spend thise billions offshore.

That’s it from my point of view.

[Karan M]

Actually I don't know it. I am struggling to understand what is your basic issue and why you insist we should ape the Khan in whatever manner, when we don't need to and it is a completely unscientific way to build up our own capability.

What do you mean by "using" the China MIC threat? Why do you constantly keep harping on "using" some fake threat or whatever, when we are more mature and use a capability based planning in our services?
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 288_1.html

Asked about the IAF's long-pending modernisation initiative, Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa said his force has a capability-driven modernisation plan with an aim to achieve full spectrum capabilities.

"It is the IAF's endeavour to achieve self-sufficiency through a focused, sustained and evolved indigenisation programmes by supporting the Make in India' initiative. Rest assured, IAF is prepared to respond to future challenges and safeguard the Indian skies," he said.

The IAF chief said the government was pursuing multiple initiatives to achieve higher levels of indigenisation and self-reliance in the defence sector.

This, he said, was sought to be achieved by harnessing the capabilities of both the public and the private sector industries, thus increasing the defence industrial base in the country.

"Self-reliance is a major cornerstone on which the military capability of any nation must rest. Our country has immense potential to leverage the manpower and engineering capability within the country for attaining self-reliance in design, development & manufacturing in defence sector," he said.

Prasad already pointed out that by hyping up China unnecessarily, a case will be made for urgent imports which will actually prevent India's MIC from developing.

India is not rolling in excess cash to throw around wastefully and right now the focus is on sensible spending.

We import what we must and the last thing we want to do, is remake it into the import everything and anything candy shop that existed before 2014.

Capability based planning takes into account what the opponent has but is not driven by it.

[Karan M]

And read up on what's happening in India before constantly worrying about PRC. On the forum are the 3 perspectives on military modernization and domestic MIC from the 3 services, multiple links have been posted. If you still keep harping on using the PRC threat or this threat after that, we really can't do anything more to make you understand.

[chola]

^^^ Forget it, Karan. We fundamentally do not understand one another.

I do not worry about the PRC, I find it to be a nice, fairly safe non-warrior rival that can challenge us to build things.

Fortunately it matters little either way. Cheen is not a serious military threat and our own MIC is going the right direction.

Just use this thread the way you see fit, Saar. I see little use for a “Chinese Military Watch” myself if the chini MIC is not considered a meaningful challenge because the PRC’s war-making ability or even will to make actual war is certainly not!

[Karan M]

The Chini MIC is most certainly a threat. Its not a 60 feet tall monster as some would like to portray it but at the same time it would be silly of BRF to dismiss it.

I just don't agree to any attempt to throw objectivity out of the window by either hyping them (or ignoring them entirely).

Their war making ability may end up being tested if little 11 decides that his ego is under threat.

Second, all this warrior race stuff is also meaningless. The PRC threw division after division into the Korean meatgrinder. They supplied nukes to TSP. It doesn't matter if they are not as sophisticated as LNL designs. As long as they work, India is under threat.

They don't need to win a war to hurt us, and even if we fight them to a stalemate they can set our development story back by a huge margin.

[Prasad]

I think I get but I think you're wrong on where to focus that hype Chola. See, bluster can be used to cover-up either deficiencies or capability buildup elsewhere. In China's case it is and always has been economic capacity. Military strength flows from it, atleast per my understanding of their thought process. Economy -scientific advancement -middle kingdom military in that order with suitable overlaps etc.

That is why I think while your enthu is appreciated, it is focused on the wrong thing. We don't need and/or can't afford greater mil spending at our current state. Forget 5%of GDP talk. Again, focus where poohbear doesn't want you to - Tibet, Xinjiang, access to our market for their electronic & other goods, our own scientific research funding, edu etc etc. That is where this fear mongering is useful. Same with getting concessions at international realpolitik, especially in trade with africa using ODOR threat. Our MIC will improve if we don't draw too much attention to it imvvo. No hard feelings.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1070992481242644481 ---> Judging by past comments and the timelines for the induction of a fifth generation fighter aircraft by the Indian Air Force, I don't think they are particularly impressed by the People's Liberation Army Air Force's J-20.

[Kengsley]

.....

Again, you resort to a strawman argument to prove your point. How is the USN topping up F/A-18E/F wings to address depot backlog issues and over utilization analogous to the Chinese importing a completely new fighter type into their Air Force? Notice that nowhere in my comment did I mention Chinese acquisition or development around the J-10? Is the USN importing the Rafale or MiG-29K during the development and operationalization of the F-35C?

The Russians are having trouble finishing the T-50 program and have cut procurement of the Su-57 program in the short term. It is well documented and India most recently put its plans to fund its share on hold forcing Russia to go it alone at least in the short term. These things aren't a secret, they have been reported by Russian, and Western media. They are also buying Su-35 and Su-30s which they have in production and they are mature allowing them breathing room till such time that the Su-57 is fully developed and industrial capacity is created to begin rate production.

China has the J-10 and a Flanker clone and based on their PR they seem to be world class producers of AESA radars fitting it right down to their smallest fighter. So why in the world, would they in this late stage of the game introduce a completely new Flanker type, an imported one at that, when they themselves have 2 flanker clones of their own?

3 flanker clones. A naval flanker(J15), a multi-role flanker(J16) and an air-superiority flanker(J11B). Their main long range air-superiority asset (For both the PLAAF and PLANAF), ie the J11B is out dated vis-a-vis the rest of the armed forces in East Asia. Out dated avionics, out dated PD radar and air to air armament dating back to the late 2000's. The J10 is not designed for persistent air-dominance, just as is the case with F16's vs F15's.

The import of SU35's is a consequence of the delays in Shengyang's program to upgrade the J11B. As I've already pointed out, the J11D's first flight was in 2015, but the program has reportedly ran into issues with its radar and fly-by-wire systems. Recent images of J11B flying test-beds from Zhuhai and CFTE suggest that an MLU program to upgrade the J11B is in the offing. A further order for SU35's past the 24 already on the PLAAF's order book would also be a sign of the J11D being dead altogether.

You are implying that the PLAAF's SU35 order indicates a lack of confidence in the J20. That's your decision to make. Having followed the development of the J11B then the J11D, I believe otherwise.

I thought the Chinese were using LRIP in the standard meaning of the phrase as in a production process, final assembly process exists and they are just producing at an initial low rate level. This is how LRIP is generally defined in the western world with pre LRIP being prototypes not using the established production process that will go into production. Only difference here b/w LRIP and FRP is the production rate.

I think we both know that the term "serial production" refers to full rate production... The J20 is not in full rate production. The latest prototype was built just over a year ago.

The J20 has never been "advertised".

There are multiple ways to bring to attention capabilities besides just putting out a white paper about them. Selective leaking, information at trade shows and using social media is one way of course unless one believes that there are just random people sitting behind shrubbery taking pictures of highly sensitive Chinese hardware.

I'd love to discuss it's shortcomings, but we know 0 about the actual radar and I've never claimed to.

And there in lies the problem. In the absence of any transparency, Chinese fanboys expect the world to believe that the capability can be bench-marked with the best western and non-western systems. That is a pretty big leap for most to take without anything substantial to back it up.

If you're waiting for the PLAAF to publish detailed exposes on their weapons programs, I'd advise you not to hold your breath. There is a huge community that follows the Chinese MIC and publishes well researched information on the history of PLA programmes and the latest tech being developed. There are many instances of annual Pentagon reports on PLA modernisation regularly referencing such material and imagery.

Posting images of the J20's optical sensors or the J10B test-bed's thrust vectoring WS10 variant or any CHinese military development doesn't imply that they are better than or even equivalent to US or European systems. I am not suggesting that the J20 is the best fighter in the world or that its capabilities are at the same level as the F22 or the F35.

What's the point of a "China Military Watch" thread if people insist on taking offence at the very thought of Chinese companies producing advanced weaponry? Yes, said platforms/weapons probably lag behind world leaders in those areas, but they do exist, no? Or are we back to the idea that all Chinese weapons are "smoke and mirrors" and "propaganda"?

[brar_w]

3 flanker clones.

Yet they clearly felt a need to introduce another flanker variant are likely going to attempt to clone it in the long term. This says quite a bit if one is able to read between the lines and not blindly accept their propoganda machine.

I think we both know that the term "serial production" refers to full rate production... The J20 is not in full rate production. The latest prototype was built just over a year ago.

Speak for yourself, because I for sure do not know this. In most A&D manufacturing Full-Rate Production usually refers to the "Rate" i.e. it is the ramp up to the optimal/maximum production rate for a given production process. For example, both the Rafale and F-35 are in "serial production" though both are nowhere close to their Ful-Rate production capability.

[Rakesh]

If you're waiting for the PLAAF to publish detailed exposes on their weapons programs, I'd advise you not to hold your breath. There is a huge community that follows the Chinese MIC and publishes well researched information on the history of PLA programmes and the latest tech being developed. There are many instances of annual Pentagon reports on PLA modernisation regularly referencing such material and imagery.

Why don't you tell us the name of that huge community?

However if this community happens to be the Propaganda Department of the PRC, we will take a pass.

What's the point of a "China Military Watch" thread if people insist on taking offence at the very thought of Chinese companies producing advanced weaponry? Yes, said platforms/weapons probably lag behind world leaders in those areas, but they do exist, no? Or are we back to the idea that all Chinese weapons are "smoke and mirrors" and "propaganda"?

No one is taking any offense. On the contrary, you are the one getting offended because we are questioning the validity of the statements that come from the PRC's Propaganda Department....which are you regurgitating.

Again, that is what people in "open societies" do. We question everything. That is what democracies do Kengsley.

[Kengsley]

If you're waiting for the PLAAF to publish detailed exposes on their weapons programs, I'd advise you not to hold your breath. There is a huge community that follows the Chinese MIC and publishes well researched information on the history of PLA programmes and the latest tech being developed. There are many instances of annual Pentagon reports on PLA modernisation regularly referencing such material and imagery.

Why don't you tell us the name of that huge community?

However if this community happens to be the Propaganda Department of the PRC, we will take a pass..

Andreas Rupprecht is German. Henri Kenhmann from Eastpendulum is French, Tyler Rogoway from the Drive is American, Jeff Head is American. One of the biggest China Watchers on Twitter is Oedosoldier, from japan. So yeah, it is an international community.

And despite the insinuations of many here, I'm not Chinese, I'm from Botswana.. it is possible to take an interest in the Chinese MIC without being Chinese...

What's the point of a "China Military Watch" thread if people insist on taking offence at the very thought of Chinese companies producing advanced weaponry? Yes, said platforms/weapons probably lag behind world leaders in those areas, but they do exist, no? Or are we back to the idea that all Chinese weapons are "smoke and mirrors" and "propaganda"?

No one is taking any offense. On the contrary, you are the one getting offended because we are questioning the validity of the statements that come from the PRC's Propaganda Department....which are you regurgitating.

Again, that is what people in "open societies" do. We question everything. That is what democracies do Kengsley.

Question it all you like mate, I don't take offence. However, theres reasonable scepticism and flat a out naivete. Claiming that programs which obviously cost in the billions and spanned over decades are all just vaporware to scare unwitting internet users is ridiculous to say the least.

[Rakesh]

Andreas Rupprecht is German. Henri Kenhmann from Eastpendulum is French, Tyler Rogoway from the Drive is American, Jeff Head is American. One of the biggest China Watchers on Twitter is Oedosoldier, from japan. So yeah, it is an international community.

So this is your "community" of the followers of the Chinese MIC?

These individuals you mentioned are all in the same boat as you. None of them can verify *ANYTHING*, beyond what the PRC puts out. The rest is based on pure speculation. But threat analysis are not based on speculations. There is significant intelligence gathered - from a variety of sources and means - to make an educated analysis on what China is really capable of. None of those tools are available to you or even your fellow community members. However, if you have access to such tools, then provide an in-depth analysis on why you believe what you say you believe. Till that point, you are just wasting everyone's time.

A good example of an educated threat analysis can be summed up in one sentence from Admiral Sunil Lanba, the present Indian Naval Chief, who recently said this ===> "We can match what forces China can bring to bear in the IOR. But in the South China Sea, the dice is loaded in their favour." The Admiral is not playing a game of battleship where he is counting the # of ships that the PLAN has versus the number of ships the IN has. That is what fan boys do, military professionals play it a lot differently. He did not make up the statement out of thin air without any facts.

And just like the Admiral above, no one here is undermining the threat of the Dragon. However to overestimate the threat leads to wasteful expenditure on platforms that have little or zero value. And that leads to folks (not you) who come in here, use that tactic to fear monger and then justify their argument to acquire phoren (actually only American!) platforms to counter the Chinese. Other phoren platforms are useless and Indian platforms are pathetic! Only America can save us from the Chinese invasion!

And despite the insinuations of many here, I'm not Chinese, I'm from Botswana.. it is possible to take an interest in the Chinese MIC without being Chinese...

I could care less whether you are from Timbuktu. That is not the issue here.

Question it all you like mate, I don't take offence. However, theres reasonable scepticism and flat a out naivete. Claiming that programs which obviously cost in the billions and spanned over decades are all just vaporware to scare unwitting internet users is ridiculous to say the least.

I am amazed how you can accuse people in here of being flat out naive and then in the very next sentence talk about programs that cost billions of dollars. Do you even think before you type? What cost analysis can you provide - with any certainty - on what the Chinese spend on their military R&D? And we are naive! WOW!

[Kengsley]

3 flanker clones.

Yet they clearly felt a need to introduce another flanker variant are likely going to attempt to clone it in the long term. This says quite a bit if one is able to read between the lines and not blindly accept their propoganda machine.

What propaganda machine? The PLAAF hasn't released any propaganda about the J20 outside of a few pictures of the Jet flying in exercises and doing 2 demos at Airshow China.,. The rest of the pics on the net have been taken by litteraly "wall climbers", who were so prolific CAC built a huge wall to block prying eyes at their airfield.

Dude, you keep disregarding the J11D program to justify your "read between the lines" argument. The PLAAF needs a 4.5 gen long range air dominance fighter. Shenyang has been unable to provide the platform they need in the required timeframe. As a result, 24 SU35s have been ordered as a stop gap or as a base to get TOT or steal tech for the J11D or J11B MLU program.

I think we both know that the term "serial production" refers to full rate production... The J20 is not in full rate production. The latest prototype was built just over a year ago.

Speak for yourself, because I for sure do not know this. In most A&D manufacturing Full-Rate Production usually refers to the "Rate" i.e. it is the ramp up to the optimal/maximum production rate for a given production process. For example, both the Rafale and F-35 are in "serial production" though both are nowhere close to their Ful-Rate production capability.

That's exactly my point. As far as serial numbers go, only roughly 10 J20 LRIP airframes have been built in 2 YEARS. That is not "serial production" in the same vein as the Rafale or F35 that have been built in the hundreds.

[brar_w]

What propaganda machine? The PLAAF hasn't released any propaganda about the J20 outside of a few pictures of the Jet flying in exercises and doing 2 demos at Airshow China.,. The rest of the pics on the net have been taken by litteraly "wall climbers", who were so prolific CAC built a huge wall to block prying eyes at their airfield.

Talk about accusing others of being naive.

Let us all drink to those brave Chinese "wall climbers" who risk "free vocational training" to provide us with glimpses into the great Military advances made by the dragon.

[Mihir]

I'm from Botswana

[nam]

I am all for 10 feet tall Chinese syndrome, as long as it results in GoI increasing DRDO's budget!

[Kengsley]

Andreas Rupprecht is German. Henri Kenhmann from Eastpendulum is French, Tyler Rogoway from the Drive is American, Jeff Head is American. One of the biggest China Watchers on Twitter is Oedosoldier, from japan. So yeah, it is an international community.

So this is your "community" of the followers of the Chinese MIC?

These individuals you mentioned are all in the same boat as you. None of them can verify *ANYTHING*, beyond what the PRC puts out. The rest is based on pure speculation. But threat analysis are not based on speculations. There is significant intelligence gathered - from a variety of sources and means - to make an educated analysis on what China is really capable of. None of those tools are available to you or even your fellow community members. However, if you have access to such tools, then provide an in-depth analysis on why you believe what you say you believe. Till that point, you are just wasting everyone's time.

A good example of an educated threat analysis can be summed up in one sentence from Admiral Sunil Lanba, the present Indian Naval Chief, who recently said this ===> "We can match what forces China can bring to bear in the IOR. But in the South China Sea, the dice is loaded in their favour." The Admiral is not playing a game of battleship where he is counting the # of ships that the PLAN has versus the number of ships the IN has. That is what fan boys do, military professionals play it a lot differently. He did not make up the statement out of thin air without any facts.

And just like the Admiral above, no one here is undermining the threat of the Dragon. However to overestimate the threat leads to wasteful expenditure on platforms that have little or zero value. And that leads to folks (not you) who come in here, use that tactic to fear monger and then justify their argument to acquire phoren (actually only American!) platforms to counter the Chinese. Other phoren platforms are useless and Indian platforms are pathetic! Only America can save us from the Chinese invasion!

You asked me who made up the China Military watcher community and I named some of the most prominent. Scoff if you wish, but some of the people on that list have been publishing imagery and reports on Chinese military programs since the 90's.

Did you want people who release military grade, classified information on Chinese military programs regularly on the inrernet? Thats just not realistic, especially for a country like the PRC. Not even the annual Pentagon report on Chinese military modernization goes into that much detail, and not even they dismiss Chinese tech as much as the "it's all propaganda" crowd here.

The Admiral is absolutely right. To date, all the PLAN has been able to deploy into the IOR at any one time has been a few Anti Piracy patrols amounting to a few destroyers, frigates and replenishment ships. Or a sub or two from time to time. Of course the Indian Navy can match and annihilate such a tiny force with ease, did I ever imply otherwise?

Question it all you like mate, I don't take offence. However, theres reasonable scepticism and flat a out naivete. Claiming that programs which obviously cost in the billions and spanned over decades are all just vaporware to scare unwitting internet users is ridiculous to say the least.

I am amazed how you can accuse people in here of being flat out naive and then in the very next sentence talk about programs that cost billions of dollars. Do you even think before you type? What cost analysis can you provide - with any certainty - on what the Chinese spend on their military R&D? And we are naive! WOW!

Yeah, i did think. Just from the overall reports and footage on/of the J20 program alone we can say with certainty that they have most definately crossed a billion dollars in expenditure.

1. The funds allocated to both CAC and SAC to design, test and produce competing airframes
2. The R&D put into the JXX program since it was first reported on by the ONI in 1997 and before then
3. 1 avionics test bed based on a TU204C airliner
4. At least 8 prototypes
5. At least 10 LRIP aircraft identified via different serial numbers based at CFTE, Cangzhou and CACs own airfield
6. The cost of flight hours put in by said aircraft since the J20s first flight in 2011
7. The funds allocated to producing the engines being tested on Prototype number 2021, including the flight hours put in on the CFTE's engine test bed.

And probably a hundred other cost centers I dont know about. What's naive is assuming that the Chinese MIC could develop the J20 program to this point at anything less than billions of dollars?... Who's attributing mythical abilities to the Chinese now? Did you assume it was just knocked together in some warehouse overnight? Same goes for the J10A/B/C, J11B/BS, J15/D/T, J16/D, FC31, Y20, H6K, KJ500, Y8Q etc etc.

Developing a military aerial platform, testing and modifying it and getting it through IOC to FOC then building up a production line and the supply chain associated with serial production costs BILLIONS of dollars in any country. Even China. Unless you have evidence to the contrary good Sir?

I do agree with you. China just isnt a big enough threat to warrant most of the Indian's military's multi-billion dollar deals for foreign jets. The threat environment around India just doesn't justify that amount of money being pumped into already developed foreign MICs.

I'm going to just end this long back and forth here.

[hnair]

I'm going to just end this long back and forth here.

Yes, you should.

[Prem]

https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/11/china ... 12_2635111
China's Military Has No Combat Experience: Does It Matter?

Today, China's military has an increasingly impressive high-tech arsenal, but its ability to use these weapons and equipment remains unclear. There are reasons to be skeptical. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) struggles under the legacy of an obsolete command system, rampant corruption, and training of debatable realism, among other issues. President Xi Jinping, the chairman of the Central Military Commission, has directed major efforts to address each of these defects and improve the military's ability to fight and win wars. Since 2016, these organizational and other reforms have gained momentum.Yet the one asset that the PLA conspicuously lacks is combat experience, and Xi can do little about it short of waging war. But there is no consensus—either within Chinese military circles or among foreign analysts—on how much it matter.Although it engaged in a minor naval skirmish with Vietnam over the Johnson South Reef in 1988, the PLA last fought a major conflict nearly 40 years ago, when a seasoned Vietnamese military demolished a bungled Chinese invasion in 1979. The ghost of that defeat still hovers over the PLA. In China, authorities have largely chosen to ignore an embarrassing conflict that fits awkwardly with Beijing's narrative of a peaceful rise, but the official silence has left many PLA veterans disillusioned about their participation in the war. The few combat veterans who remain in service will all retire within the next few years, which means the military will soon have no personnel with firsthand combat experience.Without the test of combat, the PLA's war-fighting prowess remains unproven. Chinese authorities acknowledged this point earlier this year when the military's official newspaper, the PLA Daily, criticized what it described as “peace disease.” Decades of peace and prosperity, the newspaper warned, have exacerbated corruption and undermined readiness.Likewise, Chinese Lt. Gen. He Lei said in June that his biggest regret before retiring is that he never fought a war—a remark that some American and Indian commentators seized on to argue that inexperience remains China's biggest military weakness. Others have gone further, claiming inexperience and other ills render the PLA a “paper tiger.” A more sober analysis by longtime PLA-watcher Dennis Blasko concluded that “book learning or even [the PLA's] gradually improving training programs cannot compare to the stress of an extended deployment in a combat zone.”

[ArjunPandit]

^^dont they participate in UN peace keeping missions?Anyways, they might be the ones keen to step into Afghanistan.

[chola]

^^dont they participate in UN peace keeping missions?Anyways, they might be the ones keen to step into Afghanistan.

And I already posted many times on how that turned out. The PLA needed to be saved by our jawans. They won’t be going into Afghanistan. They’d rather negotiate and buy off the Taliban. That is their MO. They don’t go into warzones.

They like gray areas and global commons like the SCS where their machines can go in numbers that can’t be easily challenged by less industrialized competitors. Not heavily contested land where every bearded cave dweller has an Ak-47.

The only reason to have this thread is for the developments coming out of their MIC. Their actual military hadn’t done anything “military” in decades.

[Singha]

They like gray areas and global commons like the SCS where their machines can go in numbers that can’t be easily challenged by less industrialized competitors. Not heavily contested land where every bearded cave dweller has an Ak-47.

^^^ nicely put. even a member of dawoods gang was lamenting its much harder to make money in karachi vs mumbai - there even a street vendor has a knife and is willing to put up a fight.

[UlanBatori]

[url=ttps://abcnews.go.com/International/china-confirms-missing-canadians-including-associate-dennis-rodman/story?id=59792239&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_heads_hero_live_headlines_hed]Bissing Contest heats up: TWO Canadastanis arrested in China.[/url]

[Singha]

they are trying to browbeat canada instead of arresting a couple of miscreant americans.

a sign they want to modulate their posture.

[nam]

The Chinis may not want to trigger a "travel warning" from US or Canada for top guys, which will then cause a fear factor for big honchos. They might think twice before going down to China or investing there. You don't want to get stuck in a Commie state, even if they are paying well.

[Singha]

it seems a dual seater carrier borne J15 has been seen.

could be of some use in CTOL carrier when it comes as a growlerski.

[chola]

it seems a dual seater carrier borne J15 has been seen.

could be of some use in CTOL carrier when it comes as a growlerski.

The regular dual seater is the J-15S. I posted that before:



The growlerxi is the J-15D:



The difference is the WS-10 engine on the J-15S while the J-15D has Al-31s and built-in wingtip pods.

In their aping of all things Amreeki, it looks like they are experimenting with the two-man config like F-14 with the WSO in back for J-15S.

[chola]

Something we rarely look into (being plane- and ship-centric as we are), the PLA’s main rifle — the QBZ-95.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... anet-38667

[Singha]

It looks like a drum mag russian weapon of ww2