China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

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chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 05 Jul 2018 13:24

Aditya_V wrote:
Singha wrote:The mig29k virus reached sinic shores


And now it is clear why the Russians abandoned the SU-33 in favour of the Mig 29K. Mig 29K has its share of problems but the Su-33/J-15 is even worse.


The Russians didn’t abandon the Su-33 nor did it adopt the 29K until after we paid for the MiG. The Russians actually chose the Su-33 over the MiG-29K the one time they competed in 1987 (yes the 29K is THAT old.)

With just one carrier and hundreds of backlogged Flanker orders, the Russians ended the Su-33 line. The MiG-29K stayed dormant until the Russians convinced us to but the “free” Gorshkov and throw MiG a lifeline. We wouldn’t have been able to fly a Su-33 off the Gorshkov so there was really no choice anyways.

The only reason we have no suffered casualities like the chinis might not be because we have better carrier planes but because we have better trained carrier pilots.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 05 Jul 2018 13:49

Austin wrote:
Neshant wrote:
Everything except stealth and maneuverability that is...

Their stealth claims are bogus.

Sticking an angled airframe over of a 3rd generation J8-II does not turn it into a 5th gen stealth aircraft.


How can we do such eye balling of stealth and come to conclusion , the design has every thing done to reduce RCS so LO wise it should be better than any thing that PLAN flies from the deck.


Also the J8II is a much longer delta-wing interceptor powered by two turbojets while the J-31 copies the F-35 in design and powered by two turbofans. Sorry Neshant, just making a flippant remark about chini quality without research doesn’t help further the discussion.

Austin wrote:The J-20 is more in Mig-31 class and not flanker , it is more around 42-45T MTOW class and to land that beast even on a USN class CBG would be a challange , J-31 is more in Rafale class and apt for carrier role.


I think the J-20’s exact specs are still in debate. But it is increasingly accepted that is about the size and weight of a flanker and uses the same Al-31/WS-10 class of engines.

Image

Also the J-31 is still not accepted into the PLA (just like the JF-17 is not) so we know it is in contention with some other aircraft for the next carrier plane. There is no other plane besides the J-20. (New variants of the J-10 and the J-15 can be discarded.)

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby dinesha » 05 Jul 2018 16:43

Why has China invited African army chiefs to Beijing?
https://www.dw.com/en/why-has-china-inv ... a-44462013

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Bart S » 05 Jul 2018 18:01

https://bigthink.com/news/we-call-bulls ... the-rounds?
https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/01/chine ... mile-away/

They should perhaps stick to taking fuzzy shots of planes obstructed by trees, and photoshop :rotfl:

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 05 Jul 2018 19:18

Bart S wrote:https://bigthink.com/news/we-call-bullshit-on-that-chinese-army-laser-gun-thats-making-the-rounds?
https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/01/chine ... mile-away/

They should perhaps stick to taking fuzzy shots of planes obstructed by trees, and photoshop :rotfl:


LoL. Would be funnier if it were a state lab.

But it looks like it is a private entity looking for funding from the commie gov.

The laser itself is less relevant than the fact they now have private firms coming up with these ideas. It reminds me of their drone industry. Now that is a concern. The advantage of a free-nation over something like the USSR includes the free market and the innovative ideas that come from it. The PRC is something like the USSR but also a free market. That is not so funny.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/laser-ak-47-developed-chinese-12856766.amp
The company behind a so-called 'laser AK-47' have released footage of the weapon being used on a firing range in a bid to dispel questions about the viability of the weapon.

The ZKZM-500 laser assault rifle is said to produce an energy beam that cannot be seen by naked eye but could cause "instant carbonation" of human skin and tissue.

...
Now, in response, the company developing the laser gun have released footage they claim shows the gun being tested on a rooftop in Xian, Shaanxi province, in May this year.
...
The company said the laser rifle will not be sold to individuals or organisations because it did not have a licence to produce weapons.

But it is seeking a partner with such a licence, or from the security or defence industries, to start mass producing its prototype at a cost of 100,000 yuan (US$15,000) a unit.

Given the potential for misuse, the design and production of the devices would be tightly monitored and sold only to China’s military and police, it said.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Bart S » 05 Jul 2018 19:58

chola wrote:
The laser itself is less relevant than the fact they now have private firms coming up with these ideas. It reminds me of their drone industry. Now that is a concern. The advantage of a free-nation over something like the USSR includes the free market and the innovative ideas that come from it. The PRC is something like the USSR but also a free market. That is not so funny.


True. They are an unprecedented monster that combines US style private enterprise, Soviet style state directed and funded programs on command, and adds in Korean/Japanese style Asian work ethic for good measure.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby SaiK » 05 Jul 2018 21:06

Can someone tell me the motivation behind this?

In a bid to devise confidence-building measures, India showcases Bofors gun system to Chinese delegation
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 38741.html

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby yensoy » 05 Jul 2018 22:03

SaiK wrote:Can someone tell me the motivation behind this?

In a bid to devise confidence-building measures, India showcases Bofors gun system to Chinese delegation
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 38741.html


This:
Image
you show them what you got so they back off... Few million years of evolution can't be wrong overnight, no?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 05 Jul 2018 22:08

Bart S wrote:They are an unprecedented monster that combines US style private enterprise, Soviet style state directed and funded programs on command, and adds in Korean/Japanese style Asian work ethic for good measure.

in its growth phase of 1950-1990 japan too was such a engine albeit the state did not use a very heavy hand, but stood in support of the congolomerates and still does.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Neshant » 06 Jul 2018 08:33

chola wrote:
Austin wrote:
How can we do such eye balling of stealth and come to conclusion , the design has every thing done to reduce RCS so LO wise it should be better than any thing that PLAN flies from the deck.


Also the J8II is a much longer delta-wing interceptor powered by two turbojets while the J-31 copies the F-35 in design and powered by two turbofans. Sorry Neshant, just making a flippant remark about chini quality without research doesn’t help further the discussion.


The J-31 is an angled airframe placed over an interceptor design and painted with a radar absorbant coating.
That's not how US builds the exterior skin of the F-35 nor F-22.
The exact process by which the material is built up for the skin of the aircraft is a secret.
Its way more than just a tile assembly and coating deposition operation.

J-31 is not a fighter either.
Its base design was that of an interceptor like the J-20.

They have claimed it is a 5th gen fighter equal to the F-35.
Nothing says their claims are true.

It should be easy enough to test these claims soon.
If indeed they are aiming to market the plane to middle eastern customers as an alternative to F-35, its performance or lack thereof will become known.

Finally if this plane is all its cracked up to be, why isn't Pakistan buying it?

Claims being a dime a dozen, now even Pakistan claims to be working on a 5th gen fighter :

Under “Project Azm” the PAF is seeking to develop its own 5th-generation fighter. Besides having a system to support its future requirements, Project Azm is envisaged to steer Pakistan towards greater autonomy in domestically sourcing big-ticket defence systems and expanding Pakistan’s aviation industry.


https://quwa.org/2017/12/07/pakistan-co ... n-fighter/

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby pankajs » 06 Jul 2018 10:30

SaiK wrote:Can someone tell me the motivation behind this?

In a bid to devise confidence-building measures, India showcases Bofors gun system to Chinese delegation
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 38741.html

Did we give them the design? Or were they allowed to measure and take notes?

If it was just eyeballing, heck they could get the same feel from some brochures on the internet or some Mil/fan site.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Jul 2018 10:39

yensoy wrote:
SaiK wrote:Can someone tell me the motivation behind this?

In a bid to devise confidence-building measures, India showcases Bofors gun system to Chinese delegation
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 38741.html


This:
Image
you show them what you got so they back off... Few million years of evolution can't be wrong overnight, no?



But Bofors is a pretty old system and Lieutenant General Kaul's firepower system in 1962 did not deter Chinese, so what is the point?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby tsarkar » 06 Jul 2018 11:38

Singha wrote:The mig29k virus reached sinic shores

Russia and Ukraine have profitably achieved universal disarmament :rotfl:

chola wrote:The Russians actually chose the Su-33 over the MiG-29K the one time they competed in 1987 (yes the 29K is THAT old.)

To add, the older MiG-29K, despite the same name, was much inferior to India funded MiG-29K.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby dinesha » 06 Jul 2018 11:47

China’s First AIP Submarine Unit Breaks Records
:roll: :roll:
https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.p ... cords.html

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Karan M » 06 Jul 2018 12:39

Bart S wrote:
chola wrote:
The laser itself is less relevant than the fact they now have private firms coming up with these ideas. It reminds me of their drone industry. Now that is a concern. The advantage of a free-nation over something like the USSR includes the free market and the innovative ideas that come from it. The PRC is something like the USSR but also a free market. That is not so funny.


True. They are an unprecedented monster that combines US style private enterprise, Soviet style state directed and funded programs on command, and adds in Korean/Japanese style Asian work ethic for good measure.


And a lot of hype that presumes we assume all the above is cent per cent working as we think it will be. Versus the reality, as in this SCMP article.

https://defenceupdate.in/chinas-j-15-ca ... w-fighter/

The need to develop a new fighter jet has become more pressing after a series of “unpardonable mechanical failures” that have killed one top PLA pilot and injured another.


My comment: Shows that they couldn't even fix the issue because they have no idea how to go about it, and want to develop an entirely new system. Speaks volumes about the BS of so called deep TOT they got and how great the PRC system of reverse engineering is. In contrast, HAL made dozens of fixes on the MiGs.

Two sources close to the military told the Post there had been at least four crashes involving the J-15, although only two of them have been reported by state media.


KM: And as usual, they are hiding the scale of the problem, by supressing information.

“The J-15 is a problematic aircraft – its unstable flight control system was the key factor behind the two fatal accidents two years ago,” one of the sources said.


KM: And here we go, for all the fancy talk of how quickly the PRC develops things, they rushed a fighter into service which did not have a proper and well tested FBW.

Pilot Zhang Chao, 29, died in a crash in April 2016 as he tried to save his J-15 fighter jet, whose flight control system was breaking down during a mock landing on an aircraft carrier, according to state media reports.

Three weeks later, his colleague Cao Xianjian, believed to be in his 40s, was seriously injured as he tried to deal with the same problem on a J-15. It took him more than a year to recover.



Two incidents back to back. What does this say about the PRC's QA/QC process?

All J-15s were grounded for three months after the crashes, which undermined morale in the air force and navy. The navy called for an investigation after Zhang’s death, the sources said.

“But the aviation experts at first refused to acknowledge that the J-15 has design problems,” one of the sources said. “They only agreed there were problems after Cao encountered the same trouble.”



KM: Here you go, unlike India, where the services have the first dibs on deciding whether they will or will not accept a platform after extensive trials, in PRC the state owned firms have well documented and deep ties to the Communist Party and hence can ignore and even run rough shod over what the PLAAF/PLA/PLAN say. The Chinese politburo/High Command is full of these state owned firms, former executives. One can guess the immense conflict of interest and their negotiating power.
Plus its in PRC's interest that their image of being a super fast supapawa is maintained by rushing platforms into service, even if they are flawed and don't work.


Many of China’s home-grown fighter jets have had problems with their engines, aircraft design and modifications. But a PLA Navy veteran said that instead of carrying out more test flights, pilots were pushed to fly the warplanes, even though they had faults.


Bingo! What did I just say.

“Of course it’s impossible to prevent any accident from ever happening during training. But unlike their counterparts in Western countries, Chinese air force pilots are asked to work around these mechanical errors,” the navy veteran said.

Although pilots are taught to eject from their fighter jets in the event of a mechanical failure, they are also told they have a duty to “save the valuable aircraft”.

“PLA Air Force pilots are trained that it’s their mission to save the aircraft, which is state property … but this needs to change because human lives are priceless,” the veteran said. “Aircraft can be rebuilt after a crash, but pilots are irreplaceable.”


KM: This is clearly for image building as well to prevent bad publicity of flawed equipment, because unlike India, the PRC has literally thrown money at mass producing and inducting huge numbers of platforms.

Earlier this year, state broadcaster CCTV aired a propaganda programme praising Zhang and Cao for trying to save their jets as they were going down.

Last week, Zhang was given a posthumous award for being “best party member”, while Cao was elected as the People’s Liberation Army representative at the Communist Party congress in October.


Repeating their mistakes and no corrective action in sight.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Karan M » 06 Jul 2018 12:43

Gentlemen, please stop worrying about Chinese "deep TOT" and "supapawa supa build times".. their kit is not as fancy or as well tested as you think it may be. India's kit is put through hundreds of trials & yet we face challenges which we do fix. The Chinese otoh are clearly very much into optics and messaging. Don't fall for it.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby pankajs » 06 Jul 2018 12:51

^^
How dare your saar try derailing the almost orgasmic view of the Chinese weepons and culpabilities?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Karan M » 06 Jul 2018 13:06

What to do saar, when our CAS says that even the plebe Su-30 radar can detect the much vaunted supa stealthy J-20 from Kms away (implying many & tactically useful range), our guys don't see the reality.

When he says the FGFA which IAF per reports is not happy with stealth wise, is still far better than J-20 and J-31, our guys don't see sense.

All hail the great PRC.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Karan M » 06 Jul 2018 13:38

PS: Some jokers mostly from the TSP side are busy waah-waahing about CASs comments, saying the J-20 flies with Luneberg reflectors and hence, Su-30s detected them.. err. CAS actually points to significant design flaw in J-20 vis a vis true stealthy aircraft, i.e. choice of canards and placement. But hey, lets not bring that up.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Prasad » 06 Jul 2018 15:53

“PLA Air Force pilots are trained that it’s their mission to save the aircraft, which is state property … but this needs to change because human lives are priceless,” the veteran said. “Aircraft can be rebuilt after a crash, but pilots are irreplaceable.”


Wow. Our pilots sometimes bail at the last minute or don't at all to prevent loss of life on the ground in case of trouble. These guys do 'image management' !

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 06 Jul 2018 15:57

Imagine 2 crashes on LCA, forget four. Every tom, dick and harry would baying for ADA's blood and there will be reams of articles and report on how India can never design a aircraft no matter what it does. Marut was shutdown on one crash.

A nation which already has a FBW jet in service is having major problems on another FBW jet. And our first attempt on shoe string budget, with no history at all... has 100% safety record (touchwood..).

People don't realize what we have achieved.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby anupmisra » 06 Jul 2018 16:57

dinesha wrote:China’s First AIP Submarine Unit Breaks Records
:roll: :roll:
https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.p ... cords.html


Load of crap. Paid for by the chinis. Even the write up smacks of 50 centers working on overdrive.

Records such as the longest sailing distance, maximum submergence depth and sinking target ships under boundary conditions were all broken by the unit.


:roll:

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 06 Jul 2018 18:10

Karan M wrote:Gentlemen, please stop worrying about Chinese "deep TOT" and "supapawa supa build times".. their kit is not as fancy or as well tested as you think it may be. India's kit is put through hundreds of trials & yet we face challenges which we do fix. The Chinese otoh are clearly very much into optics and messaging. Don't fall for it.



All these might be true:

1) we test more
2) chinis are into optics
3) their kits are not as fancy “as we think”

All the following statements are true too because we have recent pictures posted in this very thread:

a) they have launched four 13K tons DDGs in the past year and there are two more in advance stages of construction,
b) the J-20 can fly and some with WS-10 engines,
c) the FC-31 can fly,
d) the Y-20 can fly and there 7 new ones photographed on a patch of factory ground,
e) the J-15 can fly and land on a Kuznetsov class STOBAR carrier,
f) their homegrown copy of the Kutz/Varyag launched two years after the keel was photographed in 2015 and on sea trial a year after launch,
g) there are 6 strategic H-6K bombers on factory grounds in June

We can talk about optics AND we can talk about the fact they are not bragging about a prototype here and there but putting these things into service in great numbers. It makes sense to talk about how they are doing this and why.

Does it help us to just call it optics when their numbers are overrunning the SCS and creating a permanent presence for them in the IOR?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby prashantsharma » 07 Jul 2018 10:59

We can laugh and mock China’s progress at our own peril. The fact remains that they are a couple of decades ahead of us in most technologies and in industrialisation of that. Sure they have failures and some of their equipment is overhyped and rushed into service, but that is also an indication of their determination to succeed at all cost. Sooner rather than later they will fix the issues and what will we be doing - thumping our chests over how we do things perfectly?
And lets not forget that the most likely scenario for a fight between india and china is not going to be some MAD type fight to the end, it is going to be a short sneaky grab for territory with reliance by the chinese on surprise, local dominance and numerical superiority. In this kind of a battle, all these issues are not going to hamper the chinese much. They might not pick a fight with the americans till they iron out these problems, but that is no reason for India to take it easy.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2018 11:36

For a historical look in height of ww2 and cold war a lot of things were developed and rushed into mass pruduction quickly without long testing because it was needed both for function and for morale/optics

Cheen is trying to close the gap with usa fast so the rushed production and fine tuning later

Its not a unique chinese thing . Rus and usa have been on it long ago

Will be some troubles but overall scale of buildup is huge

Our mil bosses still half heartedly believe a full on conflict will not happen and limited nos of imported superior kit will save us

While our backsides are safe in usa ncr and blr think of tawand tezpur leh

I hope the ignominous retreat of civilians from tezpur is not seen my grandparents and 9 kids had to run away in a truck in 1962 from tezpur as pla reached bomdi la

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2018 11:46

Yes my grandparents and father and uncles as kids were there in this hour of shame

Wiki

The PLA penetrated close to the outskirts of Tezpur, Assam, a major frontier town nearly fifty kilometres from the Assam-North-East Frontier Agency border.[35] The local government ordered the evacuation of the civilians in Tezpur to the south of the Brahmaputra River, all prisons were thrown open, and government officials who stayed behind destroyed Tezpur's currency reserves in anticipation of a Chinese advance.[41]

—-
There was a famous radio bcast by banditji safe in his villa wishing his north east brothers well and saying he should habe done better

It is probably still in all india radio tape archives
My fathers generation used to remind us of that and spit on banditji and his team

Banditji was on the phone with porus begging for american bombers of sac to help

There were no prepared defence lines in the plains to stop a chinese swarm attack if it happened just isolated roadheafs and camps

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 07 Jul 2018 11:50

There was fear PLA coming to Tezpur. The PLA last clashed with IA at Rupa and did not get through and went back. PLA victory at Sela pass was a body blow

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Neshant » 07 Jul 2018 13:15

US has buried every contender to it's throne.

China is the latest contender to the throne.

One thing China lacks but which US has (at least until Trump took office) are a diverse array of strong economic and military allies. Western Europe (excluding Germany), UK, Japan, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, Canada, Singapore much rather have US as the global superpower rather than China. Not sure about Brazil and South Korea. But just that alone tips the scale in America's favor.

It may well be the deciding factor in which country emerges victorious this century.
Not sure if Trump has enough brains to realize this.

-----

Leaked Chinese Memo Warns Of "Thucydides Trap" With US, "War Is Unavoidable"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... navoidable

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby rkhanna » 07 Jul 2018 14:11

For what its worth



"China unveils laser “assault rifle”

https://sofrep.com/105341/china-unveils ... 00-meters/

"Technically speaking, the new ZKZM-500 laser assault rifle, designed and built by China’s Xian Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is classified as a non-lethal weapon, but don’t let that fool you. According to one researcher involved in the program, getting hit with the ZKZM-500 could certainly kill you by setting you and your clothing on fire"

" Although the platform itself was designed to be hand held, Xian Institute researchers point out that it would be well suited for mounting on cars, boats, or planes — likely because a larger external power supply would come in handy when trying to bullseye womp rats from your T-16… though if their claims can be believed, ammo capacity doesn’t seem to be lacking. They claim the ZKZM-500 can fire 1,000 two second shots using its on-board lithium battery pack (the same sort of batteries employed in modern smart phones)."

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 07 Jul 2018 16:34

Again, if the chinis are doing optics about some super duper prototypes here and there then we can laugh all we want and there will be no effect in the actual dynamics of the world.

But these “optics” come from the breadth and depth of their MIC that are impacting geo-strategic space with their numbers as we speak.

The problem is we always assume that once war starts then our quality will beat their quantity. This might or might not be the case but is absolutely irrelevant if we never fvcking fight.

What if war never happens? What if the chinis are shrewd enough and rational enough to never engage in a war in our lifetime even as their endless production of machines overruns the SCS, ECS and the IOR?

What the fvck good is testing a destroyer a thousand times more than the chinis when we never actually fight them and they have 60 plying the global commons to our six? The optics are no joke because those 60 could convince contestants to abort their claims and neutrals to acquiesce their presence without a shot fired.

If they are playing a game where their military overwhelms in peacetime not wartime then our strategy might need to change. We might need to push out aircraft and ships regardless of quality to keep ourselves in the contest.

During Doklam I wanted war. The chinis literally begged us to give them a beating at Doklam. When we punted despite overwhelming advantages along the border and in the IOR then what chances of it happening? We won’t see this war in our lifetime.

As for hoping the US will bury this pretender, let’s hope for a war over Taiwan which the chinis cannot avoid. But the chinis hadn’t fought a war in five decades what makes you think they will start one with Unkil? The numbers game is strategized against the US first and foremost. (With collateral effects on India and every other opponent.) The overrunning of the SCS and other areas with an endless array of ships and aircraft — their coast guard is growing as fast as their navy — are meant to salami slice which is a strategy to win territory without triggering war.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby souravB » 07 Jul 2018 19:23

Didn't knew where else to put this. This seemed more like strategic win than economical.
China gets IP license for Microprocessor
China's x86 processor
Chinese-designed "Dhyana" x86 processors based on AMD's Zen microarchitecture are beginning to surface from Chinese chip producer Hygon. The processors come as the fruit of AMD's x86 IP licensing agreements with its China-based partners and break the decades-long stranglehold on x86 held by the triumvirate of Intel, AMD and VIA Technologies.

In my opinion they are going to go behind AMDs back and produce on their own architecture which will be a rip off of x86. US loses one major strategic weapon. Won't be surprised if AMD is being barred in USA.
This is a strategic game plan and soon India might also be flooded with these Chinese microprocessors.
Kudos to China for playing the long game and supporting AMD when they were about to go under.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 07 Jul 2018 21:11

One chinese maker is also running to challenge the israeli dominated network processor industry the heart of routers/switches broadcoms dune unit and mellanox ate both israel

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chetak » 08 Jul 2018 00:44

Neshant wrote:US has buried every contender to it's throne.

China is the latest contender to the throne.

One thing China lacks but which US has (at least until Trump took office) are a diverse array of strong economic and military allies. Western Europe (excluding Germany), UK, Japan, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, Canada, Singapore much rather have US as the global superpower rather than China. Not sure about Brazil and South Korea. But just that alone tips the scale in America's favor.

It may well be the deciding factor in which country emerges victorious this century.
Not sure if Trump has enough brains to realize this.

-----

Leaked Chinese Memo Warns Of "Thucydides Trap" With US, "War Is Unavoidable"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... navoidable


Saar,

This is broadly how I would see it playing out.

There are a few battle hardened armies in the world today with recent and actual combat experience on a large scale.

The US and some of her NATO allies, Russia. India, Israel, pakis and some of the mid eastern countries.

China does not fall into this category. Her capabilities are largely untested, as is her weaponry, , personnel, naval systems, airforce, army etc. Her size is impressive and so is her nuke delivery systems but other than that, she has no war fighting capabilities against someone like the US.

She has quelled internal insurgencies only by sheer numbers and overwhelming force concentrations against poorly armed and ill trained muslims in china. So far her wars have been largely fought on the pages of The Global Times and her Xinhua News Agency or New China News Agency which is the official state-run press agency of the People's Republic of China

That said, she would be arrayed against the US and NATO for sure, with India tying up a very considerable chunk of her resources, the pakis would shout and scream but they would sit it out because a devasted china or US would not support them anymore in any way. CPEC/BRI/OBOR would have all gone for a toss.

Russia would benefit by staying out as would the gulf lot. Iran would weaponize rapidly as would japan and taiwan/korea/israel. Israel would keep the gulf quiet and also be ready to pay back the decades of ameriki aid.

China would be confined to the SCS, with a hostile malasia, wary singapore, confused australia and NZ and a very pugnacious japan at the other end.

If china launches, all of europe and the US would retaliate, taking out NOKO as well with very possible second strikes from India and israel as well as japan and from the US, NATO nuke submarines.

Russia will probably emerge untouched and will become the one very strong pole of the now bipolar world with a much weakened US being the other.

How does the Thucydides Trap enter into it?? Some officious and stupid stoned "journo" is having a drunken wet dream, is all.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 08 Jul 2018 01:14

chetak wrote:
Neshant wrote:US has buried every contender to it's throne.

China is the latest contender to the throne.

One thing China lacks but which US has (at least until Trump took office) are a diverse array of strong economic and military allies. Western Europe (excluding Germany), UK, Japan, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, Canada, Singapore much rather have US as the global superpower rather than China. Not sure about Brazil and South Korea. But just that alone tips the scale in America's favor.

It may well be the deciding factor in which country emerges victorious this century.
Not sure if Trump has enough brains to realize this.

-----

Leaked Chinese Memo Warns Of "Thucydides Trap" With US, "War Is Unavoidable"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... navoidable


Saar,

This is broadly how I would see it playing out.

There are a few battle hardened armies in the world today with recent and actual combat experience on a large scale.

The US and some of her NATO allies, Russia. India, Israel, pakis and some of the mid eastern countries.

China does not fall into this category. Her capabilities are largely untested, as is her weaponry, , personnel, naval systems, airforce, army etc. Her size is impressive and so is her nuke delivery systems but other than that, she has no war fighting capabilities against someone like the US.




Think of why their capabilities are untested. They certainly have infinitely more historical and formidable rivals than we do — the US, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Oz and at times Russia/USSR as well. But no wars for decades on end.

I don’t think it is by chance. IMHO, it is cultural. The chinis are NOT a warrior race. But the fact they are rational about this understanding makes them dangerous. If they thought of themselves as a “martial” people like the Pakis do then the PRC would have been put in its place a long time ago.

There is no doubt in a shooting war they would lose to the USA. There is also no doubt that they would lose to us in a shooting war along the borders and in the IOR. But unless democratic powers like the US and India are willing to be the “bad guys” and instigate war, the military competition stays an industrial production game between MICs and that is where Cheen is most competitive.

Both the US and India have a strategy of waiting for the tiny opportunity presented by war where our training and quality hold decisive advantages. Unkil, of course, go to war far more easily then we do but even they haven’t fought a large power like China since Korea. Wars between great powers simply don’t happen very often.

The chini strategy is to compete for territory and jurisdiction during all the fvcking days we are not shooting at each other.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chetak » 08 Jul 2018 01:56

@Chola

my remarks are to be seen in the background of The Thucydides Trap as forecasted.

I was just comenting that the conditions are not conducive to a chinese foray into war because all the odds and as well as the risk is against them.

Warfare has changed and given the vastness of china, population centers will be bypassed and infrastructure like dams, airports, harbours and munitions depots, rail infrastructure and fuel and power distribution will be targeted and destroyed even before the first US redneck soldier ties on his langote.

Considering that the chinese have gone in for an expensive defensive system like the S400 batteries, it may well indicate a change in their strategy.

I predict that soon, they will be turning out chinese copies of these S400 systems like sausages and the pakis will get their S400 system to counter India.

If they are going to sustain damage, they will not be the ones to precipitate any situation and will opt to wait it out. Their bluff so far has been like a poisonous cobra spreading its hood. They will strike in retaliation or when presented with a life threatening situation and they seem to prefer weaponized economics rather than the real warfighting thing. But with a king cobra like the US (and + NATO) and "Trump the unpredictable" wearing the crown, the chinese are better off threatening and muscling in on countries like SL and nepal.

Trump may be the first guy to actually scare the hans and he is not just crazy but crazy like a fox. The chinese know all about foxes and how not to tangle with them.

The chini strategy is to compete for territory and jurisdiction during all the fvcking days we are not shooting at each other.


Everybody has cottoned on to this too. There is already a pushback from countries like SL and malaysia and more will follow in the days to come.

I think that before Trump is done with the chinese, their aura of invincibility, whether economic or military, would have faded quite a bit as would their imagined clout worldwide.

He has certainly picked the right time to wade into them with his "trade" wars.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 08 Jul 2018 03:59

chetak wrote:@Chola

my remarks are to be seen in the background of The Thucydides Trap as forecasted.

I was just comenting that the conditions are not conducive to a chinese foray into war because all the odds and as well as the risk is against them.

Warfare has changed and given the vastness of china, population centers will be bypassed and infrastructure like dams, airports, harbours and munitions depots, rail infrastructure and fuel and power distribution will be targeted and destroyed even before the first US redneck soldier ties on his langote.

Considering that the chinese have gone in for an expensive defensive system like the S400 batteries, it may well indicate a change in their strategy.

I predict that soon, they will be turning out chinese copies of these S400 systems like sausages and the pakis will get their S400 system to counter India.

If they are going to sustain damage, they will not be the ones to precipitate any situation and will opt to wait it out. Their bluff so far has been like a poisonous cobra spreading its hood. They will strike in retaliation or when presented with a life threatening situation and they seem to prefer weaponized economics rather than the real warfighting thing. But with a king cobra like the US (and + NATO) and "Trump the unpredictable" wearing the crown, the chinese are better off threatening and muscling in on countries like SL and nepal.

Trump may be the first guy to actually scare the hans and he is not just crazy but crazy like a fox. The chinese know all about foxes and how not to tangle with them.

The chini strategy is to compete for territory and jurisdiction during all the fvcking days we are not shooting at each other.


Everybody has cottoned on to this too. There is already a pushback from countries like SL and malaysia and more will follow in the days to come.

I think that before Trump is done with the chinese, their aura of invincibility, whether economic or military, would have faded quite a bit as would their imagined clout worldwide.

He has certainly picked the right time to wade into them with his "trade" wars.


I think you are right on Trump. There is a possibility that before his term is over, we’ll wonder why we ever bothered with the PRC.

I don’t think there was ever an aura of invincibility for the Hans in the West or East Asia IMHO. In the West, they are for the lack of a better term “non-white” which connotes inferiority. In the Far East, they are simply too poor to generate any aura to people like the Japanese or Koreans who are see themselves as superior to anyone “nonwhite” as well.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby abhik » 08 Jul 2018 09:21

Singha wrote:One chinese maker is also running to challenge the israeli dominated network processor industry the heart of routers/switches broadcoms dune unit and mellanox ate both israel

The nightmare scenario for us will be if/when China reaches US level dominance on any field and we have no choice but to rely on them.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby yensoy » 08 Jul 2018 13:48

souravB wrote:Didn't knew where else to put this. This seemed more like strategic win than economical.
China gets IP license for Microprocessor
China's x86 processor
Chinese-designed "Dhyana" x86 processors based on AMD's Zen microarchitecture are beginning to surface from Chinese chip producer Hygon. The processors come as the fruit of AMD's x86 IP licensing agreements with its China-based partners and break the decades-long stranglehold on x86 held by the triumvirate of Intel, AMD and VIA Technologies.

In my opinion they are going to go behind AMDs back and produce on their own architecture which will be a rip off of x86. US loses one major strategic weapon. Won't be surprised if AMD is being barred in USA.
This is a strategic game plan and soon India might also be flooded with these Chinese microprocessors.
Kudos to China for playing the long game and supporting AMD when they were about to go under.


There is no strategic or economic value to a N-2 or worse generation x86 which is what they can produce with this IP (purely my guess). What makes you think Intel or AMD or whoever else will give them 14nm, 10nm or below technologies?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 08 Jul 2018 14:43

yensoy wrote:
souravB wrote:Didn't knew where else to put this. This seemed more like strategic win than economical.
China gets IP license for Microprocessor
China's x86 processor

In my opinion they are going to go behind AMDs back and produce on their own architecture which will be a rip off of x86. US loses one major strategic weapon. Won't be surprised if AMD is being barred in USA.
This is a strategic game plan and soon India might also be flooded with these Chinese microprocessors.
Kudos to China for playing the long game and supporting AMD when they were about to go under.


There is no strategic or economic value to a N-2 or worse generation x86 which is what they can produce with this IP (purely my guess). What makes you think Intel or AMD or whoever else will give them 14nm, 10nm or below technologies?



There is when the US plus Taiwan, SK and Japan own 80% of the chini market. Just like with jet engines, any generation helps because it lays the foundation for self-sufficiency which is by definition strategic.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby yensoy » 08 Jul 2018 15:24

^^^^ That would work when technology is static, but remember the target is always moving. New generation technology can run circles around the old, making the latter close to useless - whether for the consumer, industry or defence space. When you fighting for every 100g of extra payload, every km of range, every cm of RCS, all this matters.
Actually even Taiwan doesn't have any cutting edge tech - only the US and to lesser extents Korea (memory specifically) and Japan do, and they are not going to turn it over to the Chinese for love or money.


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