China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

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Singha
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 11 Oct 2018 14:25

A bomber of b2 size and elo systems will be 500-1000 mil even made in china when cost of r&d and ip theft is counted
A more democratic system like usa could afford 20

Question is how many could ussr have built and china will build

Will there be a smaller cheaper tactical platform to build in numbers and 5t internal payload (4 missiles) i think so and that will be made in numbers thats the one most useful to support the j20 in day1 anti carrier strikes and punish the yindu plan

nam
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 11 Oct 2018 15:26

The difference between USSR & China is the economic size. USSR was never the GDP size what China is today. The issue with China is West has never faced an adversary with a powerful economy and large human population. Icing on the cake, it is a manufacturing powerhouse.

So even if tech wise Chini may not have the sharp edge of the sword, they can produce in numbers. Their defence budge is 1/4 of US. If they get o 50%, that is sizeable resource for putting in numbers.

Despite being smaller economy, USSR was able to roll out enormous numbers. Even if Chinis do 50% of what Soviet did, that is quite huge.

The fact is we now need numbers. We are going for shiny end expensive toys with no numbers. Behaving like Germany in WW2.


A khan B2 may never be detected. A Chini B2 would probably be detected at 20-30KM. At that distance it can fire off tons of PGM and scoot off. Having lower tech, does not reduce the threat.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 11 Oct 2018 17:12

Singha wrote:A bomber of b2 size and elo systems will be 500-1000 mil even made in china when cost of r&d and ip theft is counted
A more democratic system like usa could afford 20


It wasn't like the US could only afford 20. The US bought 20. The B-2 was designed to replace a large legacy bomber fleet but the decision to scale back was taken because the threat went away. Much of the ballooning Unit cost (a measurement metric) was a result of that decision i.e. the policy makers traded away overall spend for a higher unit spend. Had the cold-war not ended, and the B-2 would have been put into rate production you would have had the same learning curve efficiencies and economies of scale impact its unit cost resulting in a more reasonable Program Acquisition Unit Cost of more traditional programs of the scale and capability.

Imagine if the JSF was terminated at Lot-2, you would have had a URF of 250 Million per aircraft, and an R&D spend of tens of Billions resulting in a hyperinflated PAUC. Fast forward to today, you have produced nearly 350 aircraft and URF has dropped down to 89 Million and is on the way to 80 Million by 2020. Produce 3000 aircraft and the PAUC will be closer to predicted cost because the huge R&D sum got spread over 3000 production aircraft.

When you hold demand constant you can drive prices down - One reason that Northrop Grumman agreed to a fixed price contract for the first batches of B-21's @ or below $550 Million (2010 dollars) per copy was because they were guaranteed an order size at the time of contract signing which clearly was not the case with the B-2. Essentially, the US Government signed a contract agreeing to purchase a set no of LRIP and FRP aircraft upfront along with the development contract and are bound by it under penalty.

A khan B2 may never be detected. A Chini B2 would probably be detected at 20-30KM. At that distance it can fire off tons of PGM and scoot off. Having lower tech, does not reduce the threat.


Things are more dynamic in real life though, as in China has to face a different type (quantitative and qualitative) threat compared to the US. The US ability to detect-target a stealth bomber may be very different from China's given the former's decades long experience of pioneering low-observable technologies and getting real-world experience of using it since the early 1990s.

Singha
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 11 Oct 2018 18:06

I think he was referring to china punishing india scenario.

when you cannot thrash the #1, why not beat up the next biggest enemy?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 11 Oct 2018 18:30

My point was in reference to the capability that their new bomber is likely to possess as in they will likely also lol at other aspects such as perhaps speed or keep it as a long range high speed munition delivery platform

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Prasad » 11 Oct 2018 19:29

They might most likely put it in use in the East first and move the older bombers to the west. SCS is their main threat area.

chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 12 Oct 2018 14:40

Singha wrote:I think he was referring to china punishing india scenario.

when you cannot thrash the #1, why not beat up the next biggest enemy?


We can only hope that happens. Because never mind our superiority in gori equipment and training, we own MASSIVE and OVERWHELMING numerical advantages across the whole chini border and the IOR. Yes, please come punish us with two brigades (14000 men) and two dozen J-11s and J-10s in Tibet versus our 250000 on the border with 6 divisions (72000) in Arunchal Pradesh alone.
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/india-slowly-building-military-muscle-from-ladakh-to-arunachal-on-the-china-front/amp_articleshow/63560844.cms
Four infantry mountain divisions (each with over 12,000 soldiers) under the 3 Corps (Dimapur) and 4 Corps (Tezpur), with two more divisions in reserve, are for example tasked for the defence of Arunachal Pradesh alone.


I lost all hope of war after Doklam though. We had simply overwhelming advantages everywhere — up to 20-1 in manpower along most of the border and hundreds of IAF aircraft versus literally a handful of PLAAF fighters. But no war after all that talk. We could have and should have rolled into Tibet.

Anyhoo.

All this dhoti shaking fear and preparation regarding the next cheen attack is a punishing thing. While the chini MIC pumps ships and aircraft into its eastern seas to face off Unkil and its allies, we gut our own MIC by spending billions (and we are the poorer nation to begin with) on firang gear because of this fear of imminent action by two pissant PLA brigades versus our countless divisions and corps situated on highly advantageous grounds (at breathable altitudes) on the border.

So please come and punish us, Lizard. With your underwhelming forces.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby AdityaM » 13 Oct 2018 13:17

HOW THE US FORCED CHINA TO QUIT STEALING—USING A CHINESE SPY


Longish article but talks of how China leapfrogged to making its latest stealth plane and C17 ripoff

chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 13 Oct 2018 13:54

AdityaM wrote:HOW THE US FORCED CHINA TO QUIT STEALING—USING A CHINESE SPY


Longish article but talks of how China leapfrogged to making its latest stealth plane and C17 ripoff


We like to disparage Cheen as a Xerox copier. But the reason they are half-way successful while the rest of the turd world is mired in aerospace turd-worlddom is the bloody determination and effectiveness of their intelligence arm.

They steal chit because the gori will NEVER give them or anyone else their jewels willingly.

Right now, there are only the whites (with their honorary white members the Japanese) — and chinis — who hold the crowning jewels of production turbofans, stealth fighters and large aircraft.

But the chinis were not allowed willing into the club. They broke into it.

Copy, cheat, steal.

Being a gentleman does nothing for your national security.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 13 Oct 2018 14:05

AdityaM wrote:HOW THE US FORCED CHINA TO QUIT STEALING—USING A CHINESE SPY


Longish article but talks of how China leapfrogged to making its latest stealth plane and C17 ripoff


Stealing some industrial secrets is not going to help anyone build a C17 or F35 ripoffs. It just reduces design decisions.

The Chinis are here today, because they put the money where their mouth is. Investment of Hard Currency and determination to get a version, no matter how bad it is, in to a production variant. It is by "showing the money".

The Chinese had Blackhawk chopper for decades. How long did it take them to reverse it? Wouldn't it be much easier to clone a chopper on hand versus a F35 by stealing it's secrets? Yet it took them decades.

Same with the engine. They put money on the design, used their manufacturing base, steal, beg and brought a inferior engine. Worked on it, poured more money and got a decent version out.

Meanwhile we pass hot air, begging the Americans and French and being delusional they will share their crown jewels. To top it all up... we spend peanuts and spend the remaining time blaming GTRE.


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 19 Oct 2018 11:23

I like chini mil watching. But the carrier race is really damn painful to observe. Because I grew up with the Vikrant and Viraat as the sole carriers in Asia. It was the one thing we always owned over them in a big way.

They have a plan for carrier aviation. We? Not so much. Cheen can possibly have four carriers by 2022 while we’ll be lucky to see the (new) Vikrant inducted then. Even if we had started IAC 2 yesterday it would have taken until 2030 to see commission. But we haven’t even agree on a plan yet.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-navy-verge-becoming-aircraft-carrier-superpower-33131

China's Navy: On the Verge of Becoming an Aircraft Carrier Superpower?

Coming soon: 4 PLAN carriers?

Kyle Mizokami

...

Today, China has two aircraft carriers: the ex-Soviet carrier Liaoning, and a second unnamed ship, Type 002, currently undergoing sea trials. Liaoning is expected to function strictly as a training carrier, establishing training, techniques, and procedures for Chinese sailors in one of the most dangerous aspects of naval warfare: naval aviation. Despite this, Liaoning’s three transits of the Taiwan Strait and visit to Hong Kong show the PLAN considers it perfectly capable of showing the flag.

...

Type 002 will be the first combat-capable carrier, although the lack of a catapult means its aircraft must sacrifice range and striking power in order to take off from the flight deck.

...

A third ship of yet another class is under construction at the Jiangnan Shipyard at Shanghai, with credible reports of a fourth ship of the same class under construction at Dalian. This new class, designated Type 003, is the first Chinese carrier constructed using a modern, modular construction method. The modules, known as “superlifts” each weigh hundreds of tons, are assembled on land and then hoisted onto the ship in drydock.

...

Although there are few hard details on Type 003, we do know some things. The new carrier will forgo the ski ramp method for CATOBAR, or Catapult-Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery. The use of catapults will allow the carrier to launch heavier aircraft with great fuel and weapons loads, making the carrier more effective as a power projection platform. China has reportedly conducted “thousands” of test launches of a new electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS).

...

At the same time, Chinese designers are believed to be hard at work on a fourth class of carrier, Type 004. According to Popular Science, a leak by the shipbuilder claims the new class, “will displace between ninety thousand and one hundred thousand tons and have electromagnetically assisted launch system (EMALS) catapults for getting aircrafts off the deck. It'll likely carry a large air wing of J-15 fighters, J-31 stealth fighters, KJ-600 airborne early warning and control aircraft, anti-submarine warfare helicopters, and stealth attack drones.”

...

Meanwhile, the PLAN is looking forward a next-generation carrier aircraft. The PLAN has twenty-four J-15 multirole fighters, with at least two aircraft lost and two damaged during accidents attributed to the J-15 itself. That’s not enough aircraft to equip two carriers, land-based training units and carriers currently under construction. A future aircraft could be a carrier-based version of the Chengdu J-20 or the J-31/FC-31 , China’s two new fifth-generation fighters. An interim solution could be the so-called J-17, an improved J-15 roughly comparable to the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and the EA-18G Growler.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy carrier fleet is a rapidly growing force shaping up to be a powerful, flexible tool of statecraft and war. Beijing could realistically have four aircraft carriers by 2022—a remarkable feat of military construction.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 21 Oct 2018 11:54

Chini spruce goose taking off from water.

Looks a bit wobbly pulling its arse from the grip of water.


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2018 12:42

beautiful and useful for their new island bases. note the crossed swords welcome by the fire tenders.

was Bereiv involved via track2? how is your first effort a 4 engine heavy amphibian?

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby AGI » 21 Oct 2018 14:34

Singha wrote:beautiful and useful for their new island bases. note the crossed swords welcome by the fire tenders.

was Bereiv involved via track2? how is your first effort a 4 engine heavy amphibian?


First effort was actually the 25 000 Ton MTOW Harbin SH5 which first flew in 1976 and introduced to PLAN service in 1986. It was biult to replace the Be-6's the PLAN service and will be replaced by the AG600

Image

Image

kit
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby kit » 21 Oct 2018 14:39

AdityaM wrote:HOW THE US FORCED CHINA TO QUIT STEALING—USING A CHINESE SPY


Longish article but talks of how China leapfrogged to making its latest stealth plane and C17 ripoff


So they quit stealing ? :mrgreen:

chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 21 Oct 2018 17:06

Singha wrote:beautiful and useful for their new island bases. note the crossed swords welcome by the fire tenders.

was Bereiv involved via track2? how is your first effort a 4 engine heavy amphibian?



Not first as AGI pointed out. But still seems fairly slow in development compared to many of their other projects:

According to wiki, it’ll be 13 years by the time it goes into production. Long execution probably means less help on this one.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AVIC_AG600

The AVIC AG600 (Kunlong, 鲲龙) is a large amphibious aircraft designed by AVIC and assembled by CAIGA. Powered by four WJ-6 turboprops, it is one of the largest flying boats with a 53.5 t (118,000 lb) MTOW. After five years of development, assembly started in August 2014, it was rolled out on 23 July 2016 and it made its first flight from Zhuhai Airport on 24 December 2017; it should be certificated in 2021, with deliveries starting in 2022.



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