China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

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chola
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 16 Mar 2019 17:21

^^^ We'll get there. But the weight of products (and therefore sales) from the chini system is something to be aspired to IMHO.

It is not the pointy tip of the spear that is impressive with them. It is the long shaft behind the blade composed of the building blocks from piston cropdusters to regional jets.

The plethora of products (look at their rapid entry of the killer drone market) is more akin to chini Red Capitalism that created their export engine than to the Soviet system.

Projects like the FC-1, FC-31 and FTC-2000 which are not part of the military indicate that the industry can develop prototypes organically and sell them too.

Yes, it is important to note they are far behind Khan for balance. But everyone is far behind Khan, let's be honest about that too.

The key is to be in the game and have something on the market. We are not in the game across most of the sectors that Cheen and Khan play in. I would like us to be there.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-14/boeing-737-max-8-troubles-could-help-china-s-comac-c919

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Karan M » 16 Mar 2019 19:17

Am not too bothered about how the PRC does things because they have the money to be profligate. Empty towns in the desert, while citizens sleep in crypts in their cities.. that sort of showpiece stuff will bankrupt India.

What I am bothered about is that the process that the current GOI started, private industry becoming a true partner to the Indian services, is continued. Our weak point is the rampant inefficiency at OFB which has throttled the Army's & AFs and to some extent the Navy's war fighting potential. If that is addressed & the land systems, ammunition, and small arms gap is covered, then we get conventional deterrence in place.

The next is to accelerate DRDO programs for smart munitions & sensors, where again private MSMEs are doing a great job, but we need to move that beyond just design & development to mass manufacture. This will again accelerate the warfighting potential of the AF, maximize their platform capability way beyond today & also build an ecosystem beyond the vertically integrated DPSUs, who when confronted with large orders, go shopping for imported subsystems, reducing the effort DRDO put into indigenization.

For instance, if VEM can assist DRDO in D&D of the MPATGM, they should have the rights to assemble it as well, as does BDL. This will give us multiple centers of competence & skill beyond 1-2 DPSUs.

The biggest advantage is the increase in QA/QC if we move production out of the OFB. They can deliver items where they have some competence like the Dhanush. Ammunition manufacture has been a disaster from OFB and it needs to be fixed, even if it goes out of their control.

Third, is to increase the budget on a consistent but not ad-hoc basis, because the latter is how the WW arms vendors price gouge us. I am certain if these basic steps are taken, the indian order pipeline will be enough to sustain the bread & butter ops for many firms, allowing them to strike out for exports on their own.

In terms of innovation, we are already coming up with stuff with minimum fuss purely based on our own analysis of our needs and requirements. Take a look at the radars for the QRSAM, multi-panel AESAs splitting away from the rotating radar set up taken by most WW OEMs. Or the the different modes on some of our munitions, again for maximal flexibility beyond what's available via import.
We'll do well enough if the basics are put in place.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Rakesh » 16 Mar 2019 22:35

So much for the Chinese build capacity!

https://twitter.com/China_SCS_info/stat ... 0178470912 ---> After only 7 years in the Chinese Navy, this female officer became the commander of a modern Type 52C air defense destroyer. Unprecedented, but that's how it is when 12 - 14 combat ships are produced each year & there isn't enough experienced officers.

Commander Wei Xiaohui to be Chinese Navy's first female warship captain
http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2019-03 ... 445034.htm

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 16 Mar 2019 22:38

Poor and weak

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby V_Raman » 17 Mar 2019 08:03

Why are all these chinese photos so shiny? the weapons look like toys! from what i understood, they have some fetish for super white and shiny cute things and effeminate men seem to be popular as well!

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/12/ch ... the-party/

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 09:40

if the captain herself is that young, one can wonder about the experience level of the other key officers and sailors....

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby abhik » 17 Mar 2019 13:29

I would have said this was a propagandu posting, but she no very err.. "Photogenic", which is the norm for CCP propagandu.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 17 Mar 2019 15:36

With the 55 biggies rolling in, all the boys would have moved on to the newest toys, including 52D.

A nice PR drive, probably will be deployed around China.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 17 Mar 2019 15:49

V_Raman wrote:Why are all these chinese photos so shiny? the weapons look like toys! from what i understood, they have some fetish for super white and shiny cute things and effeminate men seem to be popular as well!

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/12/ch ... the-party/


Effeminate men is a growing trend in Cheen (and across the Far East.) I had to study their entertainment business for an analysis piece. "Flower boys" or "little fresh meat" are their most profilic stars, especially in their music industry. These are very pale effeminate men with very thin physiques and very female features (beautiful in fact if they were on women.) They also wear make up and earrings.

This is Cai Xukun, a typical "flower boy", their top rated entertainer in their celebrity power index -- their Sonu Nigam:
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It is part of an expanding trend in chini/Far Eastern culture that is tied into plummeting marriage and birth rates as women choose weak effeminate men who share their make up and jewelry but put off accepting traditional marriage and family raising roles.

Combine this with the "little emperor" syndrome and you have an exceptionally weak base for military recruitment. This is not a martial society who eschew war, unlike their TFTA jackal.

Singha wrote:if the captain herself is that young, one can wonder about the experience level of the other key officers and sailors....


I have been writing this for years. The USN had reported years ago that Cheen cannot possibly crew the number of ships they produce. (The situation is probably even worse for pilots because we see satellite pictures of frontline fighters like the J-10 stacked up 20 deep on factory grounds.)

But why are they doing this?

1) it is an employment program. You can provide far more jobs building ships and aircraft than sailing or flying them. With Trump killing their export engine, their SOEs including their defense industry will need to provide even more jobs,

2) their military "fight" during peacetime by flooding gray zones and global commons. Here, it is far more important to have numbers than trained crews who can fight. The Japanese are highly trained but they are losing jurisdiction in the sea and air around them by a horde of chini machinery. The chinis are pitting their industrial might, not their military one, in these contests,

3) their massive numbers also deter war. Cheen hadn't fought in four decades even as their power grew. Few states would be willing to go to war with a growing behemoth, even a poorly trained one, unless absolutely forced to. And Cheen does not intend to force a fight but instead employ numbers in creating fait accompli in ways always short of war.

If it were about warfighting, this thread would have been dead years ago. There is nothing to report on their actual ability to fight. They simply don't fight.

Chini mil watching is about their MIC first and foremost. They are an industrial and trading power not a military one.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 17 Mar 2019 15:56

There will be some bush war to bring up the TFTA'ness.

Even the "lowly 3rd world India" has now bombed a nuclear weapon country, questions will be raised on how can the lord of the middle kingdom be left behind..

There will be lot of itchy finger generals in PLA, AF & N to have HD video of them directing the crew to press those shiny new buttons
Last edited by nam on 17 Mar 2019 16:18, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 17 Mar 2019 16:14

nam wrote:There will be some bush war to bring up the TFTA'ness.

Even the "lowly 3 world India" has now bombed a nuclear weapon country, questions will be raised on how can the lord of the middle kingdom be left behind..

There will be lot of itchy finger generals in PLA, AF & N to have HD video of them directing the crew to press those shiny new buttons


There was a "bush war" in South Sudan with chini blue helmets. After the first RPG hit, the entire chini battalion buggered off. It took an Indian unit to restore the situation. The chinis never fired their weapons and had in fact abandoned them.

https://theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/06/un-peacekeepers-refused-to-help-south-sudan-rebels-raped-aid-workers-report

During four days of fighting between the rival forces, artillery rounds and gunfire hit two UN bases, killing two Chinese peacekeepers.

The Chinese troops subsequently abandoned their posts, leaving weapons and ammunition behind, the report said.


When they wrangle with other great powers like Japan and Unkil in the air and seas, there is little chance of anyone firing. Some militia men in the bush? All bets are off. lol

Nah, you won't see much bush wars with them.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 17 Mar 2019 16:17

US,Russia,UK,France are having a go in Syria. Turkey,Iran are doing their bit. Even Saudis are now more experienced in a losing war. India, Pak also got to fire.

Only the Chinis are left with creating 4K vidoes of their jets flying around aimlessly for youtube.

Once Chinis start their bush war, we can officially say we are in the middle of WW(3) on Terror. The Chinis must be searching hard for their bush.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 17 Mar 2019 16:23

^^^ Their "bush" on the War on Terrorism is putting their entire muslim population under surveillance and into concentration camps. But that is police/internal security action not a military one.

That said, all the actions you mentioned involved chini weapons, including Saudi Arabia and their CH-4 armed drones.

They will profit from wars but won't fight them. Again, a historic industrial and trading power but not a warfighting one.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby nam » 17 Mar 2019 16:29

Which is why I also been thinking PLAAF might be send to bomb one of those remote places in Afghanistan( and paying off the Afghan gov) next to the border. It will be high impact TV event compared to any action in Africa.

Even empty mountains cave will do.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 18 Mar 2019 09:17

Their rapid entry into this new space smacks of free market enterprise. Slumbering SOEs/PSUs could never have turned so quickly on a new market. These are brand new lines of products that nobody outside the US had been building it.

This is something you expect from a South Korea or Germany not a nominally commie dictatorship like Cheen. The key word is nominal.

https://taskandpurpose.com/china-drone-superower-2631852998.html


A really big deal: China is a drone superpower


Michael Peck, The National Interest
March 16, 2019 at 03:12 PM


For years, drone warfare has been an essentially American pursuit. The new age of armed robots has been symbolized by Predators and Reapers spewing Hellfire missiles.

But guess who's the biggest exporter of combat drones? China.

"In 2014–18 China became the largest exporter in the niche market of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), with states in the Middle East among the main recipients," according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which compiles estimates of global military strength and arms spending.

...

"There is widespread discussion about the impact of UCAV proliferation on peace and security. China has become the primary exporter of UCAVs. Whereas China exported 10 UCAVs to 2 countries in 2009-13, in 2014-18 it exported 153 to 13 countries—5 of which are in the Middle East: Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In contrast, the United States delivered three UCAVs in 2009-13 and five in 2014-18. In both periods all the deliveries were to the United Kingdom. Iran delivered 10 UCAVs to Syria in 2014-18, while the UAE delivered 2 to Algeria."


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 18 Mar 2019 09:39

Supposedly the first detailed picture of the CATOBAR Type 003's modules being assembled in Shanghai.

Tweeted by a Japanese watcher:

https://twitter.com/OedoSoldier/status/1106279858294931458

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 18 Mar 2019 09:49

This is why the PLAN is promoting people with barely 7-years experience in the navy to destroyer captain.

Watchers counted 15 DDGs being built or outfitted in the Shanghai yard that is also building the afore-mentioned CATOBAR.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Cain Marko » 18 Mar 2019 10:06

would be great if we could send this thread to mod babus and cause some dhoti shiver perhaps that will get them moving

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 18 Mar 2019 12:38

perhaps their plan is a round the world "great white fleet" to make a big splash like theodore roosevelt or that eunuch admiral zheng he did to coast of africa?

a carrier, escorted by 10 DDGs and 3 n-subs and various transport ships, hotel ships etc.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby souravB » 18 Mar 2019 17:54

Most of their GDP growth comes from huge infrastructure and construction projects. With countries getting wiser to their trade policies, they do not have other ways to keep their GDP growth at an acceptable level other than churning out these military behemoths where they can employ quite a few people together or/& to keep building ghost cities.
Churning out these excessive military hardware is their necessity to keep the GDP level and attract FDI.
I won't be surprised if in a few years, Suriname gets a type 052 to operate.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chetak » 19 Mar 2019 14:57

twitter

Must watch video:

Joint Chiefs Chairman says Google refuses to work with US military but provides “direct benefit” to China’s military



https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1106247367177764865

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 19 Mar 2019 15:36

^^^ Fellow NRI Sundar Pichai had been working to get Google back into thr chini market since he became CEO. The numbers warrant it. Cheen has the largest digital market place on earth. Hollywood moguls (and Bollywood stars) have the same issue.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 19 Mar 2019 15:40

Close up shots of the production J-20 that some tagged as J-20A.

Toy-like fit and finish.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 19 Mar 2019 16:07

After 30 years of trying, they finally have an inducted copy of the Black Hawk.

A Z-20 Copy Hawk in PLA livery.
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The Z-20 is the one truly RE project of their big helo portfolio.

The vast majority of their production models are variants of their TOTs from France on the Dauphin and the Super Frelon, the Z-8 below:

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This is the latest Z-8 variant, the "L" in prototype testing. You can see the thing evolving into this from the "G" variant on the third picture above.
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby siqir » 21 Mar 2019 09:33

exercise footage of j15 to j15 mid air refueling

from 15:39 minute mark to 17:06

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ouV3pCC4zRc&t=939s

video is all in chinese

in another vid analyst says aircraft carriers do not support tankers and drop tanks are a drag

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 22 Mar 2019 07:07

Posting this in the China Military watch thread because It would be interesting to watch what the Chinese Military Media's response is to this...

Trump Aides Back Selling F-16 Fighter Planes to Taiwan, Sources Say


The Trump administration has given tacit approval to Taiwan’s request to buy more than 60 F-16 fighter jets, according to people familiar with the matter, a policy reversal likely to provoke China’s ire amid the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing.


President Donald Trump’s advisers encouraged Taiwan to submit a formal request for the jets, built by Lockheed Martin Corp., which it did this month, according to the people, who asked not be identified discussing internal discussions. Any such request would need to be converted into a formal proposal by the Defense and State Departments, and then Congress would have 30 days to decide whether to block the sale.

The Obama administration in 2011 rejected a similar Taiwanese request over concern about antagonizing China. But Trump has chosen a more aggressive approach at a time when the administration is locked in difficult negotiations with China over trade.

It’s unclear whether a potential F-16 sale could become a bargaining chip in those discussions or is solely an outgrowth of the administration’s renewed focus on Taiwan, a long-time U.S. ally that was once seen as a bulwark against Chinese expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.

The White House declined to comment on Taiwan’s F-16 request, which several of the people said also includes tanks.

In October, Vice President Mike Pence assailed China for moves to chip away at Taiwan’s diplomatic presence overseas, and its ramping up of pressure on private companies to refer to Taiwan as a province of China. The government in Beijing considers the island’s fate a “core interest” -- more important than almost any other issue.


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 22 Mar 2019 13:53

Selling to Taiwan is a double edge sword since many chini spies convicted in the US were Taiwanese and the country as a whole is a massive conduit of western level technology to Cheen with literally a million Taiwanese living and working in the PRC at any given time.

That said, the F-Solah is fairly safe since it would not be anything the Lizard hadn't gotten from Pakiland anyways.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 22 Mar 2019 14:18

siqir wrote:exercise footage of j15 to j15 mid air refueling

from 15:39 minute mark to 17:06

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ouV3pCC4zRc&t=939s

video is all in chinese

in another vid analyst says aircraft carriers do not support tankers and drop tanks are a drag


They will be stuck with the J-15 (and its flying coffin tendencies) for many years to come. Multiple variants are being developed in parallel for both the STOBARs and upcoming CATOBARs. We won't see a FC-31 carrier derivative for another decade at least.

Your basic STOBAR J-15 currently on the Liaoning:

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J-15T for CATOBAR:

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J-15S twin seater:

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J-15D EW variant:

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 22 Mar 2019 14:28

https://twitter.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1108340973761904640

@Rupprecht_A
@RupprechtDeino
A KQ-200 / Y-8GX-6 ASW with the number 82014 assigned to the 1. Naval Air Division / ETC was intercepted by the JASDF.

Image

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Prasad » 22 Mar 2019 14:49

What we need to lookout for, given rumours that their 3rd AC will be CATOBAR is for the wing-loon type drones on their land-based CATOBAR test facility. If they've chapa-maared predators, they will be doing that or developing their own naval variant of the MQ-25. Whether it is as good or not is immaterial. Any capability to put fuel in the air will be advantageous if you don't use up valuable fighter life to do buddy-refueling. The MQ-25 need is coming about because USN uses F-18s as tankers during recovery.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Singha » 22 Mar 2019 16:06

long endurance drones need to have long wings for high lift and flimsy legs to save weight. how does that gel with carrier ops?
has a reaper type drone ever operated from carriers?
the wingspan and size of a global hawk is like a early model 737

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Prasad » 22 Mar 2019 16:10

Well not a predator/reaper type drone but certainly the x-47b type ones.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby brar_w » 22 Mar 2019 19:48

chola wrote:Selling to Taiwan is a double edge sword since many chini spies convicted in the US were Taiwanese and the country as a whole is a massive conduit of western level technology to Cheen with literally a million Taiwanese living and working in the PRC at any given time.

That said, the F-Solah is fairly safe since it would not be anything the Lizard hadn't gotten from Pakiland anyways.


The F-16 block 70 is totally different from what the Pakis operate. This deal does not matter from the perspective of the points you raised because Taiwan has already been aproved for F-16V upgrades to 140 aircraft in its current fleet which they are in the process of doing (at about 2 dozen aircraft a year). New builds essentially just provide the same systems on a new airframes so the level and access to technology has not really changed. Moreoever, the F-16 is an outgoing type in the USAF so it is not really of much concern. The politics around the sale is likely to influence its success more as opposed to the technology involved which they already have.

Singha wrote:long endurance drones need to have long wings for high lift and flimsy legs to save weight. how does that gel with carrier ops?
has a reaper type drone ever operated from carriers?
the wingspan and size of a global hawk is like a early model 737


Prasad was referring to something akin to the USN MQ-25 where the "Predator" family proposal was based on the Avenger and the purpose was not for all out endurance but more influenced by the ability to offload fuel to strike fighters at 500 nm from the AC plus other missions.

I believe the Chinese have already claimed that they will be working to produce something similar to what GA bid for the MQ-25 but that eventually lost to the Boeing proposal.


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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 23 Mar 2019 17:01

Among the more well respected chini watchers, I tend to post from the French and German. Here are some intel tweets from a Japanese watcher. Google-translate is my friend:

After 21 years since first flight, the J-10C will get a mass produced WS-10B engine after four years of testing ended.
https://mobile.twitter.com/OedoSoldier/status/1109172349834805248

Y-20B with the WS-20 will make first flight this year. Current Y-20A uses WS-18(a rip-off of the Russian D-30KP):
https://mobile.twitter.com/OedoSoldier/status/1108772254974914562

Finally, Eleven will get new chicommie State Car (this supah cool new version looks like it is from 1970 instead of 1969!)
https://mobile.twitter.com/OedoSoldier/status/1109289918818324480

New XiMobile:
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Current XiMobile:
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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Austin » 23 Mar 2019 18:18

The build quality of Chinese fighter and choppers if they have not been PS's upon looks as good as any US fighter/helicopter and French Chopper that is is based on.

Looks like all the Tools and Automation stuff they build this with comes from Western companies out there , Imported as Civilian Machine Tool but routed to build the like of J-20

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 23 Mar 2019 19:18

Austin wrote:The build quality of Chinese fighter and choppers if they have not been PS's upon looks as good as any US fighter/helicopter and French Chopper that is is based on.

Looks like all the Tools and Automation stuff they build this with comes from Western companies out there , Imported as Civilian Machine Tool but routed to build the like of J-20


Not just Unkil/EU but Japan, South Korea and Taiwan too. The most sought after machine tools are from Germany, Japan and SoKo so acquisition shell companies (and honeytraps) are set up all over those places to funnel the stuff over. It is one of the major issues identified in Unkil's ongoing trade/technology war with the PRC.

How do you keep the allies from being sieves and profiting while the US block sales? The cost has to be higher than the possible profits. Hence warning tariff shots across their bows. People thought Trump was crazy to start trade wars with allies at the same time. No, those were calculated moves to strengthen the US hand against Cheen by warning off the allies.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Austin » 23 Mar 2019 20:10

Agree Soko , Japan , Germany are other major source of Machine and Equipment.

US allies are not uniform in their views and UK and Germany has openly revolved against Trump on Huawei affair .. The Europe have their own interest in Dealing with Chinese being the 2nd largest trading partner and most understand the game being played by Trump because Europe has been victim of tarrif barrier from US and the looming threat on auto tarrif etc plus the entire Energy issue via Nord Stream-2

Trump is doing the right thing for his country looking at his own interest but eventually the Allies too would do the same when it comes to their interest on China.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby SaiK » 23 Mar 2019 20:35

China's F-16: Meet the J-10 Fighter (Possibly Thanks to Israel)

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... rael-48727

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby Austin » 23 Mar 2019 20:48

I think J-10 will in next decade become a key fighter for PAF likely replacing the Mirage and other types .......... Quite a mature program by now in different variant and something PAF would be able to afford along with cheaper JF-17 that would the main stay.

Plus a squadron of J-31 beyond 2035 just to be on equal equal with IAF 5th gen program.

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Re: China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

Postby chola » 24 Mar 2019 00:06

Austin wrote:Trump is doing the right thing for his country looking at his own interest but eventually the Allies too would do the same when it comes to their interest on China.


In general, I agree. But Wall Street has a wait and see attitude because of institutional memory of two major turning points.

1) Lockheed Martin was on the cusp of dominating China's satellite market when Bush banned all space related exports and LockMart was fined $13M for helping Cheen solve a failed launch (of a LockMart sat.) Cheen ended up having to develop (copy) its own. Cheen is now the biggest satellite market in the world today with no US input,

2) Intel and NVidia were on the edge of dominating Cheen's super computer market when Obama banned a high end chips to Cheen. This forced Cheen to develop (copy) its own. It it now the largest HPC market on earth with 227 of the top 500 fastest computers. Again with diminishing American presence.

Old hands on Wall Street would say it is better hold leverage over a rival by making him use your products and your standards.

But Wall Street doesn't have to face chini weapons with Amreeki technology like the military so these bans would be supported by the USN/USAF if not LockMart or Intel.

So for the Street it is still wait and see how things will turn out. In general, having command of a major market, including a rival one, is better than not.


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