YashG wrote:Geography maybe on our side but numbers are not. It is wishful thinking that if need be China will not deploy numbers against us.
A. Tibet is too sparse to support heavy troop deployment & India can match china soldier for soldier - nearly.
B. Any Chinese navy flotilla will never get past our permanent naval ship - andamans ( subs may - bt with US intel, they are a roast)
C. So brief, ultra short Airforce skirmish over Tibet is the only way we fight Chinese.
So we need numbers by all means and lots of them. China will ramp up on numbers from here, to make up for its economic weakness & alienation.
I fully expect China to start showing up in public a lot more weapon systems and appear stronger than it is.
1. Even if chinese dont intend to move assets across theaters, it would be foolish to plan that ways. I am sure that has been thought through by guys whose main job is to plan such contingencies. If they havent then we are doomed any which way and the discussion on BRF would matter little.
2. Very unlikely that India is going to undertake an offensive operation in Tibet, even though we are preparing and will be prepared for that in coming years. The point is not just what each side can deploy, but what each side can support. I do not disagree that they have an advantage in aerial no.s but remember their pilots will be coming from far from the mainland possibly after refuelling or with much reduced pay load due to height of airfields. There was a video that Shiv did on this. Please dont pounce this hypothesis. I am aware that we do have T72s and T90s deployed somewhere up in the sky.
3. I dont think air fight would be our preferred way. Also, with chinese you have to look at their history and pattern of wars. Not being racist, however they are not very creative (unlike pakis) and they are very consistent in their behavior. Look into their previous wars or skirmishes.Unlike pakis, they are calculating and sequential. In my opinion, with India, they'll start like Dokalam or like '62 and dynamically check how's our overall prep. if we do not measure up to them, they'll proceed and open other fronts, else they'll squat, and then in diplomatic circles blame it on PLA ask for face saving measures and concessions.
This is not to say that i am advocating against keeping our powder dry. I am all for more desi masala and barood and more tejas, ATAGS, OFB guns, but deep inside i have this hunch that they will not take direct panga with India anymore even with a MMS type of leader as the army has enough credibility and capability.
IMHO, Air skirmish is way up the escalation ladder with chinese. Not to say this is not possible but very less probable. A single JF17, J10 or J20 kill by IAF would dent their sales prospects in the entire world. Right now the word in market about their maal is poor quality, but then it will also have the additional tag of not battle worthy or proven poorly in war. That narrative will be lapped by western media and russian media for different reasons.
So in my opinion, whatever value that holds, it will be all or nothing..