symontk wrote:Earlier Pakistan was backing on its nuclear status to prevent the attacks. Now that it is not giving them any security, they will look for other options. Here I am thinking like a Pak general who is really vengeful. Our GOI is thinking of war from Pakistan and so moving out people out of border areas (it might also happen). My take is that war is not what is going to happen next. I may be wrong, but reading from denial from Pakistan I am thinking that they are having a different plan
One of the downside of our surgical strike or hot pursuit or cross border attack, whatever you call it, is that it legitimize cross border attacks. In the same way, we should be expecting similar attacks from Pakistan in future actually near future from regular Pak army, not that it is going to make any difference
This is semantics, but I dislike the expression that our retaliation "legitimizes cross border attacks". This suggests that all attacks until now were illegitimate but one retaliation from us suddenly makes future attacks legitimate. This is precisely the logic put forward by Pakistan and their apologists in India. Whether I like the expression or not it will become 100% true if we fail to respond to future attacks.
I see a lot of cheering going on saying that things have changed forever. Forever is a long time. Unless we respond to each and every attack from the other side we will have to rationalize and console ourselves that our one solitary retaliatory action has now "legitimized" Pakistani attacks. We must legitimize retaliation and risk war.
Let me digress for a bit here. There was once an assumed paradigm that national militaries would fight national militaries. The Pakistan army, having no appetite for direct war chose to arm jihadis. But the jihadis have only small arms, not tanks and aircraft. But Pakistanis are still not using those weapons. they are saying "We will go straight to nuclear weapons if we the army are forced to fight
" The Pakistani army uses its tanks and aircraft to exert its dominance over its multiple jihadi militias. The only militias that the Paki army does not punish are "sarkari jihadis" like the LeT who act as echo chambers for the Pakistani army.
If the Pakistani army fails to support and protect the "sarkari jihadis" and give them superior weapons I do not believe they are going to lie back and die. They will exert pressure on the army. That in fact is happening as we speak. The army is getting jihadized. But this brings us to an old problem. Jihad is anti-Kafir - not specifically anti India. So a jihadized army+militia in Pakistan armed with tanks and aircraft are going to be a technical threat to more than just India, although in practice they can only threaten India and maybe Afghanistan. But once a group of properly jihadized people start controlling Paki tanks, ships, SAMs and aircraft they will also weasel their way into nuclear weapons.
Let me state what this means to me:
- Pakistan is well on its way to becoming a jihadized nuclear armed state
- While India is the most obvious target for nuclear weapons the fact is jihadis will want to dominate other nations including Europe and the US. In fact many technically trained jihadis in Pakistan manning nukes may appear from the UK and Europe
- Whatever is left of the Pakistani army that opposes jihad and Talibaniac sharia will be sidelined, retired, sent packing
- There is good news and bad news
- The good news is that the US is beginning to smell the coffee and may actually cut off sophisticated arms and financial aid
- The bad news is that I am beginning to suspect that the world somehow hopes that India will solve their Pakistan problem
What can India do?
1. We have to help Pakistan become a threat to the world before the world wakes up and stops helping them. Jihad in Pakistan is important for everyone and unstoppable
2. We really really must be ready to nuke them out of existence and get hurt in the process
3. People who don't like the idea need to come up with much better ideas by getting out of denial and imagining that Pakistan is somehow peace loving and moderate. The moderates such as existed are being squeezed out
4. Educated Indians are not doing enough reading about Pakistan, but talking too much about personal experiences with individuals or small groups of Pakistanis.