shiv wrote:
People who act in this manner can be expected to behave irrationally. That is why their actions need to be gamed out. If someone does it in public I have no issue with it because I do it all the time.
I personally suspect that they don't have much wiggle room but I like to think like a Paki and I would expect a border provocation and a brief conflict at the end of which they could declare victory. The importance of gaming out this and other possibilities is to deny them that victory by making them lose.
JMT
Shiv,
Thinking like a Paki this is what I would do.
1) Wait a few days. Let the euphoria in India subside. Right now, activating proxy mouthpieces (Thapars, Burkhas, Turdesais of the world) will only cause blowback as their views will be intensely unpopular.
2) Thereafter, begin a push (through these mouthpieces and Track-II channels) to advance the following narrative: "OK, army did what it had to do. Uri, Pathankot, 26/11, 26/7/2006, Parliament, Kaluchak, IC814, 26/3/93, EVERYTHING has been avenged. NOW let us stop the circle of violence. Violence begets violence onlee no? Why be irrational. It is time to make moves towards pi$$." Basically... try to embarrass the Babus (if not Modi himself) towards Vajpayee-giri. Say "OK, now that you have given a slap, extend your hand in friendship, don't talk of revising IWT, overflights, MFN, SAARC, Baluchistan govt-in-exile etc."
3) The next step depends on the reaction of Modi sarkar to the advanced narrative (which will be sustained, and conveyed day after day in a long-drawn out propaganda bombardment to appeal to the "best intentions" of Indian aam admi).
3A) If Modi sarkar begins turning the other cheek and does Vajpayee-giri, pulling back on other means to isolate and harm Pakistan: business as usual will resume. Kashmir's "internal" disturbances go back to center stage. More Uri/Pathankot style attacks follow with the media Trojan Horses saying "look, even after the 28/9 op, nothing changed... these kinds of ops are good only for feeding the appetites of Hindutva bhakts and don't affect situation on the ground...nothing will change unless you resolve core issue and listen to the Kashmiri beebul" etc.
3B) OTOH if Modi sarkar keeps up the momentum and stays on the offensive, that will be interesting. I am 400% sure another massive terrorist attack on a soft-target, 26/11 scale or worse, and potentially on an economic target (like BSE, Bangalore Whitefields, BARC) designed to create massive public despair will be attempted. Perhaps a radiological weapon. BEFORE the attack, The Track-Thoo Trojan Horses will be activated to create an atmosphere such that, when the attack happens, the blame will fall on Modi sarkar. See, even after avenging "all previous terrorism" on 28/9 you still went ahead with pressing Pakistan. We said violence will beget violence, and see what happened?
Basically as a Paki ISI chief I have four priorities:
1) Within India, reclaim the momentum of public opinion so that it is once again divided on how to deal with Pakistan. Do this by showing that soft targets and economic interests can be hurt, and by using my mouthpieces to advance a narrative that blames Modi sarkar's "reckless, aggressive adventurism" when that happens.
2) Do not provoke further jhaapads like 28/9 by hitting IA installations or even cross border firing/incursions. It is clear that IA has a free hand to give jhaapad now, and that they can do it effectively. We cannot keep denying these kinds of ops forever.
3) Appease the jihadis by letting them carry out some very high-visibility, high-casualty terrorist attack on a soft target within India. This is the only thing that can keep them on side after so many of their best goatf***ers were shaheedized on 28/9.
4) Redouble my efforts to recruit, train, and equip relatively more deniable proxies within India to carry out terrorist strikes that will not be so easily traced back to my doorstep. Reactivate Indian Mujahedin/SIMI cells using politco-criminal Islamist nexuses wherever they have a foothold, e.g. Kerala, Bihar, Assam. Make the Indians feel pain that cannot be easily attributed to Pakistan. Use ISIS and other global Islamist organizations to do so, letting them take the lead while giving them all possible facilities to help in operations.
