'Make in India' Single engined fighter

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 22 Jan 2018 10:49

Not just this thread it is the same story with all the threads related to Indian systems. LCA, Arjun, Arty, LCA. We keep going in circles for decades. A reflection of how our own MoD works along with the entire MIC. Yawn inducing circle of comedy.

srai · Post by **srai** » 22 Jan 2018 16:28

Rakesh wrote:...
I would have bought that argument until the day the GoI ordered 83 Mk1As. Mk1A is nothing more than an upgraded Mk1. The Mk1A does not go need to go through IOC or FOC certification all over again. The upgraded components will be tested and certified before it enters production. The GOI would not have placed the order for the bird, if they were unsure it will happen.
...

Admiral Saab, I would be cautious about the above statement. The changes in Mk1A are quite significant and no one can be certain about the date it will be ready for production at this point in time. Timelines are often missed and hence need to be padded up. While development of new variant is going on, more orders for Mk1 would have been the real guarantee IMO. Long ways to go.

My concern derived from the whole Arjun Mk1 to Mk2 saga. Lessons haven’t been learnt it seems.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 22 Jan 2018 17:54

Saar, delay will likely come. But does that mean you should spend $20 billion of YOUR money to have a significant chunk of your air power beholden to the tantrums of Amreeka? LM’s own executive is saying that will be unable to honour the contract, if the US Govt tells them not to. That is like saying I am not going to take a LIC policy, because I know I am not gonna die during my working years.

I have said this before, America is NOT the great Satan that the Jihadis claim it to be. This is just America protecting her geopolitical interests and that is fine by me. It is our policy & decision makers in the MoD that is entertaining the foolishness that is the SEF competition. And then you have a few Brown Sahibs (aka Desh Drohis) in India - in the media to be specific - who gladly endorse the American view. Endorse sacrificing the further development of your own program just so that you can have Apple pie.

Of course development will have delays and cost overruns. Which military program does not? Is America running out to buy PAK-FA because only 187 F-22s exist and F-35 is delayed? Obviously not. They are pouring even more money into the F-35 program, because they realize you cannot put a cost to national security, of which having your own MIC is a key foundation. This needs to be explained - at a kindergarten level - to our decision & policy makers in India? Like really?

srai · Post by **srai** » 22 Jan 2018 18:44

^^^
Order more Tejas Mk.1 to help tide things over

Current 20+20 Mk1 order is below the minimum viability quantity for the Indian aerospace industry to flourish. Just as they are beginning it will end as quickly with the attainment of 16/year capacity in two years. Need more orders for this fully developed multi-role platform.

Indian bureaucracy is such that it won't allow for switching Mk1A to Mk1 if the delays occur. Even if it were to allow, it is too slow. Better to order more Mk.1 (at least 40 more) to keep the lines busy and then gradually switch over to Mk1A when it becomes ready. These extra birds could undergo MLU to Mk1A standard down the road or could be exported (if the user doesn't want them when new planes come). No gaps in production and the whole Indian ecosystem matures with good ROI. Recipe for success!

srai · Post by **srai** » 22 Jan 2018 19:24

^^^
Think of it as how Boeing built 10 more (or something like that) C-17s before the line closed in anticipation of demands for it. All have been picked up quickly and some like India have missed out on their desired quantities as part of options in the original deal.

Similarly, GoI could pay for 40 more Tejas Mk1 production in anticipation of domestic needs or potential exports. I'm quite sure once they roll off the lines the IAF will be the first ones to pick them up ... all of them!

Will · Post by **Will** » 22 Jan 2018 21:56

vimal wrote:Not just this thread it is the same story with all the threads related to Indian systems. LCA, Arjun, Arty, LCA. We keep going in circles for decades. A reflection of how our own MoD works along with the entire MIC. Yawn inducing circle of comedy.

Maybe we should have members post a timeline for these threads. Like

1990 - I was in school when I heard of this project.
2000- I joined college
2005 - I got married
2007- I had a kid
2012- I had my third kid.
2033- I became a grandfather and we are still discussing the SEF and Arjun and LCA.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 22 Jan 2018 22:08

^^^

Cybaru · Post by **Cybaru** » 23 Jan 2018 01:21

Will wrote: 2005 - I got married
2007- I had a kid
2012- I had my third kid.

Well managed production line and supply chain! bravo sir!

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 23 Jan 2018 01:37

Rakesh wrote:
KrishnaK wrote:And what do the IAF fight with if the Tejas (MK1A and/or MK2) can't be scaled up to deliver numbers in time ? At that point Tata/Adani will be too little too late.
So let us take that scenario to its logical conclusion.
...
So here lies the logical conclusion --> What happens when China comes knocking between now and December 2022? What are we going to do then? Now if China decides to wait till 25 December 2022, will one squadron of 18 F-16 Block 70 aircraft be enough to keep the PLAAF at bay? Or better yet, let me turn your question right back at you ---> And what do the IAF fight with if the F-16 can't be scaled up to deliver numbers in time? At that point Tata/Adani will be too little, too late. Would you agree? Beautifully phrased by the way.

I believe the SEF is being talked about to reduce IAF's dependence on the MK2 being delivered in requisite numbers on time. The LCA MK1A acquisition continues apace AND an SEF is ordered as well. Why does it need to be one or the other ?

In the words of the late Democratic Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan from New York, "Sir, you are entitled to your opinion. But Sir, you are not entitled to your own facts." And the confirmed facts of the matter are;

1) The SEF is nowhere near induction in the IAF and will never address the squadron shortage in the timelines required.
2) The Mk1 is better than the MiG-21 it is destined to replace - IN EVERY RESPECT.
3) Tejas Mk1 production is continuing and will only scale up in 2018 and 2019.
4) The MoD has placed an order for 83 Tejas Mk1As in December 2017.

By 2019, Tejas will be produced at the rate of 16 per year. SEF will still be in negotiation at that time. Even if I halve that number - from 16 to 8 - it will still beat the SEF. I say again, the Tejas is India's SINGLE ENGINE FIGHTER. To induct yet another single engine, foreign fighter is the height of stupidity on behalf of the GOI.

Boss you've jumped from MK1 production which does seem to be coming along to the MK1A where the radar's yet to be nailed down all the way to the SEF. I believe IAFs insistence on an SEF is to reduce the dependence on MK2 being developed and delivered on time. There is substantial risk there. If that is indeed the case, then we must compare the chances of (or the risk of not) getting the MK2 delivered at say 8/16 per year vs the F16s delivered at 8/16 per year. Lockheed's made ~2.5k F16s and has successfully manufactured them in other countries. How many LCAs has the HAL made so far ?

KrishnaK wrote:But that's precisely what you're saying w.r.t. Tejas MK1A/MK2. Neither have been born yet.
No. I would have bought that argument until the day the GoI ordered 83 Mk1As. Mk1A is nothing more than an upgraded Mk1. The Mk1A does not go need to go through IOC or FOC certification all over again. The upgraded components will be tested and certified before it enters production. The GOI would not have placed the order for the bird, if they were unsure it will happen.

The GOI could well be sure that it will happen but still uncertain about the exact when. A major subsystem is still up in the air.

Mk2 development has been confirmed already, along with AMCA. So much for that half baked theory that ADA would not be able to do AMCA and Mk2 together. I would rather invest money in a local product and take the risk, then waste my valuable FOREX on a proven platform, but from a country whose foreign policy is unstable.

When do you think the MK2 will start flying ? The F16V flew in 2015 for the first time ? Their radars are only minor variants of versions already in service.

The risk in linking replenishing IAFs dwindling numbers on the MK2 is something the IAF seems to balk at. We might have other opinions, but that risk isn't negligible and should not be dismissed lightly. The SEF solution isn't ideal - it isn't supposed to be.

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 23 Jan 2018 01:45

for those who are skipping over the beauty of Admiral's detailed and effective response.
Salient Points taken to help the twitter generation.

Rakesh wrote: - The SEF is nowhere near induction in the IAF and will never address the squadron shortage in the timelines required.
- The Mk1 is better than the MiG-21 it is destined to replace - IN EVERY RESPECT.
- Tejas Mk1 production is continuing and will only scale up in 2018 and 2019.
- The MoD has placed an order for 83 Tejas Mk1As in December 2017.
- By 2019, Tejas will be produced at the rate of 16 per year.
- I say again, the Tejas is India's SINGLE ENGINE FIGHTER.
- To induct yet another single engine, foreign fighter is the height of stupidity on behalf of the GOI.
- Make in India has been an utter sham.
- Mk1A is nothing more than an upgraded Mk1.
- The Mk1A does not go need to go through IOC or FOC certification all over again.
- Mk2 development has been confirmed already, along with AMCA.
- I would rather invest money in a local product and take the risk, then waste my valuable FOREX on a proven platform, but from a country whose foreign policy is unstable.

Cybaru · Post by **Cybaru** » 23 Jan 2018 01:48

+1 Good points Admiral!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jan 2018 01:57

Khalsa, What is that "Ghar ke murgh....

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 23 Jan 2018 02:01

Ramana-ji: I believe House Chicken.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jan 2018 02:13

No I want the whole saying! My point is F35 etc are unusable fancy Cornish hens.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 23 Jan 2018 02:30

ramana wrote:No I want the whole saying! My point is F35 etc are unusable fancy Cornish hens.

And if the Pakis and the Americans improve their relationship at some point, there will no doubt be attempts to 'restore the balance' by giving them advanced weaponry that they can actually use, like WLRs/Artillery/TOW/Harpoons/P-3 and other force multipliers that have been donated to them in the past.

Cybaru · Post by **Cybaru** » 23 Jan 2018 02:36

ramana wrote:No I want the whole saying! My point is F35 etc are unusable fancy Cornish hens.

Isn't that true for anything we buy? Whether from americans or russians? I am not sure, I follow.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 23 Jan 2018 02:40

KrishnaK wrote:I believe the SEF is being talked about to reduce IAF's dependence on the MK2 being delivered in requisite numbers on time. The LCA MK1A acquisition continues apace AND an SEF is ordered as well. Why does it need to be one or the other ?

Wrong Sir. SEF acquisition is to shore up the depleting squadron strength in the IAF - currently at ~ 30 squadrons. As I mentioned in my earlier post, SEF cannot meet the timelines that the IAF requires these fighters. By 2025, the two remaining MiG-27UPG squadrons and the MiG-21 Bison squadrons will be retired as well.

KrishnaK wrote:Boss you've jumped from MK1 production which does seem to be coming along to the MK1A where the radar's yet to be nailed down all the way to the SEF. I believe IAFs insistence on an SEF is to reduce the dependence on MK2 being developed and delivered on time. There is substantial risk there. If that is indeed the case, then we must compare the chances of (or the risk of not) getting the MK2 delivered at say 8/16 per year vs the F16s delivered at 8/16 per year. Lockheed's made ~2.5k F16s and has successfully manufactured them in other countries. How many LCAs has the HAL made so far?

Can you guarantee that Tata can mimic what LM does so beautifully at Fort Worth, Texas? Now we are back at square one again - where is Tata going to find the people to assemble these aircraft? This is not bicycle assembly, rather a state-of-the-art 4th++ generation fighter. You can't take a kamati (labourer) off the road and give him a screwdriver and tell him to assemble. We are in RFI stage. No training - of any assembly personnel - can happen until a confirmed order is signed with LM. I repeat...we are in RFI stage. So the same conundrum exists - how is SEF going to deliver the planes to the IAF in the timeline required by the IAF?

What would make better sense, would be to adopt the following strategy;

- Invest the Rs 1300 crore (~ 200 million) into additional Tejas lines. Let us assume with bureaucratic inefficiencies, it ends up costing the GOI around $600 million for each line. So basically three times the cost. It is still cheaper than investing $20 billion into a platform with zero return.
- The IAF gets a quicker influx of modern aircraft in a respectable timeframe. Yes, not fancy (i.e. sensor fusion for one) like the Block 70 or Gripen E, but still a generation or two ahead than the MiG-21 and also safer.
- For fancy, get another 36 - 44 Rafales which will be cheaper, than the first set of 36 Rafales...because the initial investment has already been made at Halawara and Ambala AFS - simulators, weapons, spares, tools, etc.
- If I am not mistaken, an option for a repeat order of 36 birds is already present in the first contract.
- Sign the repeat order for Rafales in 2018 and the first batch of the second lot can start deliveries in 2021.
- The GOI will still be in negotiation stage in 2021, with SEF.

The goal is to get combat aircraft delivered to the IAF, in a quick turnaround. The SEF acquisition does not provide the IAF that luxury.

KrishnaK wrote:The GOI could well be sure that it will happen but still uncertain about the exact when. A major subsystem is still up in the air.

So churn out Mk1s till then. 83 Mk1As have been ordered. Those 83 Mk1s can be converted into Mk1A as per HAL Chief. Not a big problem.

KrishnaK wrote:When do you think the MK2 will start flying ? The F16V flew in 2015 for the first time ? Their radars are only minor variants of versions already in service. The risk in linking replenishing IAFs dwindling numbers on the MK2 is something the IAF seems to balk at. We might have other opinions, but that risk isn't negligible and should not be dismissed lightly. The SEF solution isn't ideal - it isn't supposed to be.

- When do you think the first F-16V squadron will join the IAF and make any meaningful contribution to the IAF's force structure? Please keep in mind our MoD before answering.
- The money saved from SEF acquisition ($20 billion) can be poured into Mk2 and AMCA development.
- The SEF acquisition isn't ideal. SEF acquisition is stupid.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 23 Jan 2018 03:16

ramana wrote:No I want the whole saying! My point is F35 etc are unusable fancy Cornish hens.

Ramana-ji, that is a good one. You should patent that.

Saying: Ghar Ki Murgi, Dal Barabar
English Meaning (for all my fellow NRIs): Self possessions are always undermined and other's possessions seem better

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jan 2018 04:38

There you go.
Realistically with ghar ki murgh you have flexibility.
Can be any thing you need.

srai · Post by **srai** » 23 Jan 2018 04:41

^^^

Similar phrase: The grass looks greener on the other side.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jan 2018 04:41

Also Rakesh I had tweeted today morning that the huge NPA of Indian PSU banks is from the very same private sector industries. If trusting them, we shut down our DPSU and OFB we will be really nanga nach.
So how can we have different results from same people?

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 23 Jan 2018 05:18

You may use another adage. 'Raita failana'. With right guidance of the figurative fire and forget missile called F35, enough confusion can be created everywhere.

In addition to SEF, make a mess out of Navy's requirement for fighters. Let the Swedes, French, Russians, Americans supported by brown sahibs fight over SEF, TEF, XEF. And have Tejas fly quietly under the radar. SP 7 has already flown. Would be in squadron duties by now.

Let GOI deliberately seed interest groups that fight each other. I would say, have articles placed in media mentioning JF Thunder as being offered to India under Belt Road Initiative. Discredit SEF completely. Let's see how creative our government gets.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 23 Jan 2018 06:10

Rakesh wrote:
KrishnaK wrote:I believe the SEF is being talked about to reduce IAF's dependence on the MK2 being delivered in requisite numbers on time. The LCA MK1A acquisition continues apace AND an SEF is ordered as well. Why does it need to be one or the other ?
Wrong Sir. SEF acquisition is to shore up the depleting squadron strength in the IAF - currently at ~ 30 squadrons. As I mentioned in my earlier post, SEF cannot meet the timelines that the IAF requires these fighters. By 2025, the two remaining MiG-27UPG squadrons and the MiG-21 Bison squadrons will be retired as well.

Yes, the SEF is required to shore up depleting squadron strength. The IAF is looking for fighters with certain capacity at a certain cost (lifetime) as replacements. When MK1, the only LCA being manufactured and flying now, was deemed insufficient in terms of capacity, Parrikar cut the gordian knot with the MK1A, which the IAF has ordered. The MK1A however only partially satisfies what the IAF wants. The MK2 is expected to provide the capacity & cost, however there is a lot of risk involving the timeline. The IAF would like a lot more certainty - hence a western single engine bird. This is my understanding of the situation. It's certainly consistent - the IAF wanted M2Ks to begin with.

Can you guarantee that Tata can mimic what LM does so beautifully at Fort Worth, Texas? Now we are back at square one again - where is Tata going to find the people to assemble these aircraft? This is not bicycle assembly, rather a state-of-the-art 4th++ generation fighter. You can't take a kamati (labourer) off the road and give him a screwdriver and tell him to assemble. We are in RFI stage. No training, of any assembly personnel, can happen until a confirmed order is signed with LM. I repeat...we are in RFI stage. So the same conundrum exists - how is SEF going to deliver the planes to the IAF in the timeline required by the IAF?

Can I ? No, i'm pretty uninformed - all of what I know, very little admittedly, is from BRF. That said, I have some belief that the IAF is correctly capable of identifying risks in a long winded development process and estimating the cost to itself should the worst case pan out. I am also somewhat confident in Lockheed Martin's capacity at estimating whether they can build this in India or not. They've done it twice before in Korea and Turkey. Of all the mil vendors, the ones in the US are the only ones constrained by anti corruption laws. The SEF is not some outlandish idea that should be laughed out of the door. It certainly seems like a viable alternative, even if it feels too late.

- Invest the Rs 1300 crore (~ 200 million) into additional Tejas lines. Let us assume with bureaucratic inefficiencies, it ends up costing the GOI around $600 million for each line. So basically three times the cost. It is still cheaper than investing $20 billion into a platform with zero return.
- The IAF gets a quicker influx of modern aircraft in a respectable timeframe. Yes, not fancy (i.e. sensor fusion for one) like the Block 70 or Gripen E, but still a generation or two ahead than the MiG-21 and also safer.
- For fancy, get another 36 - 44 Rafales which will be cheaper, than the first set of 36 Rafales...because the initial investment has already been made at Halawara and Ambala AFS - simulators, weapons, spares, tools, etc.
- If I am not mistaken, a repeat order of 36 birds is already present in the first contract.
- Sign the repeat order for Rafales in 2018 and the first batch of the second lot can start deliveries in 2021.
- The GOI will still be in negotiation stage in 2021, with SEF.

I think more Rafales & SU 30s is certainly an easier alternative and has a higher chance of coming to a pass. I'm sure everyone else gets that too. Operating costs could well be the reason the SEF's still being talked about. Rafale's operating cost per hour is 16,500 and F16s is 7,000 and Gripen's is 4700 - from FAST JET OPERATING COSTS.

I wonder if the problem can be posed as some sort of an optimization problem - cost (acquisition, operating) vs capacity - like a knapsack problem.

KrishnaK wrote:The GOI could well be sure that it will happen but still uncertain about the exact when. A major subsystem is still up in the air.
So churn out Mk1s till then. 83 Mk1As have been ordered. Those 83 Mk1s can be converted into Mk1A as per HAL Chief. Not a big problem.

My argument is that there's some logic to the SEF idea being floated - not what you or I would do. The IAF hasn't ordered 200 MK1As for example - it certainly could. The capacity it offers at the price point might not dovetail with its plans.

- When do you think the first F-16V squadron will join the IAF and make any meaningful contribution to the IAF's force structure? Please keep in mind our MoD before answering.

The MOD can be worked around if Modi decides to do another G2G deal. If not, the SEF idea will die a quiet death in the due course of time.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jan 2018 07:22

There are two.requirements of IAF

- Mig 21 replacement Mk1A fills thst
- MMRCA residual of the 126-36 ++

Argument is for these 100 planes

F16 vs Gripen2 vs Tejas Mk2.

For IN it's the 55 planes.

Here could be a curve ball

srai · Post by **srai** » 23 Jan 2018 07:26

KrishnaK wrote:Yes, the SEF is required to shore up depleting squadron strength.

That's a red herring.

With new acquisitions coming in totaling 12 squadrons (2 Rafale, 2 Su-30MKI (existing orders), 2 Su-30MKI (new), 1+1+4 Tejas Mk1/1A) by 2025, the IAF will actually be gaining couple of more squadron that it has today. Retiring by 2025 are 10 squadrons (8 MiG-21 Bis/Bison and 2 MiG-27UPG). Plus, other types remaining in service are all being upgraded and will be around well after 2030. The IAF, 33 squadron at present, will have around 35 squadrons by 2025 given the projection at hand.

LCA Mk2 will become available by 2027 with funding for the next phase approved recently. So where does the SEF F-16/Gripen-E fit in? Total waste of money, IMO.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 23 Jan 2018 07:41

ramana wrote:There you go.
Realistically with ghar ki murgh you have flexibility.
Can be any thing you need.

Can't resist> IT is called
Ghar Ka Yogi Jogna, Baahar Da Yogi Siddh.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 23 Jan 2018 12:00

ghar ki murgh that lays the sunahare ande (golden eggs).

Trikaal · Post by **Trikaal** » 23 Jan 2018 12:07

When u make tandoori chicken, it doesn't matter if it is ghar kii murghi or not. Similarly, we need to make our ghar kaa Tejas into delicious Tandoori chicken and that will only happen with time, effort and ingredients.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Jan 2018 17:50

It would be nice though if the delicious chicken Tejas , cooked by cafe HAL arrives on the table before the flyboys die of hunger! That's why some are lusting after American " fast food" or Scandinavian smorgasbord.

srai · Post by **srai** » 23 Jan 2018 21:17

Philip wrote:It would be nice though if the delicious chicken Tejas , cooked by cafe HAL arrives on the table before the flyboys die of hunger! That's why some are lusting after American " fast food" or Scandinavian smorgasbord.

What hunger? I thought they had already been served some fancy French appetizers to satiate their hunger for a bit while longer

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 23 Jan 2018 23:42

Calm down everyone, there’s no plan to put an F-35 production line in India

Over the weekend, multiple news outlets ran stories based on a Press Trust of India report stating that Lockheed Martin had proposed to manufacture a “custom-built F-35” in India.

However, it appears that the story was the result of confusion between discussion on the F-35 and the company’s well-publicized bid to move its F-16 line to India. Lockheed has no intention of building an F-35 line in India at this time.

“F-35 production is based [in] Fort Worth, Texas, and Final Assembly and Checkout Operations (FACO) facilities are located in Cameri, Italy, and Nagoya, Japan. The article referencing F-35 production in India was misreported and incorrect. The conversation was in regards to F-16 production,” Lockheed spokesman Michael Friedman said Monday.

A top Indian Ministry of Defence official told Defense News that “there is no such plan, and no official proposal has come from U.S. government and Lockheed Martin” to produce F-35s in India in the future.

I guess THIS reporter will be really disappointed

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 24 Jan 2018 04:46

Told you so. It was the same proposal as before, but some dumb idiot DDM interpreted that as an offer to build F-35s in India and this whole tamasha started. They're hawking F-16 Block 70s and now want us to believe that it will lead to commonality with any future order for F-35s, assuming that the IAF ever orders F-35.

As things stand, we still have very high hopes of our MoD and our babus to be able to delay the release of any RFP to LM and Saab or even further contenders into 2019 at the very least. Let the whole thing keep sliding till the Tejas Mk1A flies and the Tejas Mk2 development is in full swing and hopefully on a path of guaranteed service entry.

srai · Post by **srai** » 24 Jan 2018 05:10

^^^
Kinda of like Raytheon submitting its ancient Hawk SAM for the Indian QRSAM/SRSAM requirements a few years ago. The articles at the time talked about how it is inter-operable with the more advanced Patriot etc. Same tactics being used here. Sell old stuff with a bait of latest tech down the road. Two home runs instead of just one.

Pretty much sums up where the US thinks India is from technological and strategic partner level point of view.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 24 Jan 2018 05:15

You submit something you think you have a possibility of succeeding in or if it is the only thing you can offer in that space as specified in the request you have received. If the RFI was tailored towards a more advanced 5th generation fighter (as in there was room for a higher end, more capable and more expensive fighter to be selected) they would have offered the F-35 just like they are doing elsewhere. I am not sure which version of the Hawk Raytheon offered and when but if one looks at SRSAM side there isn't really anything else in their portfolio that they can offer by themselves besides the NASAMS which one would assume would be led by Kongsberg since they market the system outside the US (which as per THIS was being discussed as a potential as well). OEMs are there to make money so are expected to look after their interests.

Pretty much sums up where the US thinks India is from technological and strategic partner level point of view.

It really does not imho. EMALS is a cutting edge US technology which has only recently been commissioned in use (not even operational yet). The P-8I was being produced concurrent to USN P-8 acquisition and no old P-3s were offered instead. The AH-64s that the IAF is getting are the Echo variants which are of the same generation as the latest being acquired by the US Army. There was a deal being worked on for the GE-F414 which is the most advanced engine in its class operational with the US armed forces.

If the IAF or MOD was interested in a more capable and expensive SEF and communicated that to the OEMs around the world I'm sure Lockheed will change course and pursue a track to get other industrial partners and government agencies to get together and propose something around that aircraft just like they are doing in sales campaigns around the world. But one must know what that entails, a much higher price tag, a much longer acquisition timelines simply on account of TOT and manufacturing and license production G2G deals etc etc. As a for profit company responding to a global tender you go by what you can comfortably accommodate within the terms of the deal and not choose to instead offer something that sets you up for failure.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 24 Jan 2018 05:21

^^At least for once we should be thankful of MoD and pray that no rabbit is pulled from the hat at the last minute. Their silence is scarier than their slow actions.

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 24 Jan 2018 05:47

ramana wrote:There you go.
Realistically with ghar ki murgh you have flexibility.
Can be any thing you need.

Thank you sir.
Tejas will be the aircraft and the platform upon which our entire ecosystem will flourish.

I still have a vegetable garden in my backyard and teach my kids to to grow their vegetables
this increases their interest in cooking too and looking after the backyard.
My older one now helps me manage the earthworms in the composting bin.

Soch badal nee hai.
Soch.

Aj tak sock yeh hai ke
American Burgers or Swedish smorgassboard humare health ke liye aache hai.
its all bakwaas.

Buy second hand Jags, Mig-29, order another 2 Squadrons of MKIs, another squadrons of Rafaels.
Do not build a phoren SEF in india.

Tejas is a single engined fighter is the single engined fighter for India.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 24 Jan 2018 09:34

KrishnaK wrote:Yes, the SEF is required to shore up depleting squadron strength. The IAF is looking for fighters with certain capacity at a certain cost (lifetime) as replacements. When MK1, the only LCA being manufactured and flying now, was deemed insufficient in terms of capacity, Parrikar cut the gordian knot with the MK1A, which the IAF has ordered. The MK1A however only partially satisfies what the IAF wants. The MK2 is expected to provide the capacity & cost, however there is a lot of risk involving the timeline. The IAF would like a lot more certainty - hence a western single engine bird. This is my understanding of the situation. It's certainly consistent - the IAF wanted M2Ks to begin with.

All fine and dandy. But I ask again, how is the SEF going to meet the deadlines that the IAF needs?

You said the IAF wanted M2Ks. And that is correct. Tejas has a FCS better than M2K. Proven fact and confirmed even by IAF test pilots who have flown her extensively. All the more reason to induct the platform. Tejas is India's M2K, only better...much better.

The IAF likes certainty, but neither of the aircraft in the SEF competition offer that. The Gripen E is vaporware and the F-16 - while a proven platform - comes from a nation whose foreign policy changes from one administration to the next. There is no stability with the United States of America. LM's own executive has said that they can only honour the contract, as long as the US Govt allows them to. Where is the certainty in that?

I don't hear Dassault executives saying that about the Rafale. I don't hear Sukhoi executives saying that about the Su-30MKI.

KrishnaK wrote:Can I ? No, i'm pretty uninformed - all of what I know, very little admittedly, is from BRF. That said, I have some belief that the IAF is correctly capable of identifying risks in a long winded development process and estimating the cost to itself should the worst case pan out. I am also somewhat confident in Lockheed Martin's capacity at estimating whether they can build this in India or not. They've done it twice before in Korea and Turkey. Of all the mil vendors, the ones in the US are the only ones constrained by anti corruption laws. The SEF is not some outlandish idea that should be laughed out of the door. It certainly seems like a viable alternative, even if it feels too late.

The issue does not lie with LM. It lies with setting up a factory, training the personnel and churning out the planes to meet the timelines required by the IAF. The fact of the matter is, the SEF will not meet those timelines. RFP was supposed to be issued by the end of 2017. Where is it?

KrishnaK wrote:I think more Rafales & SU 30s is certainly an easier alternative and has a higher chance of coming to a pass. I'm sure everyone else gets that too. Operating costs could well be the reason the SEF's still being talked about. Rafale's operating cost per hour is 16,500 and F16s is 7,000 and Gripen's is 4700 - from FAST JET OPERATING COSTS.

- Going by that yardstick, the Tejas should be equally competitive to the Gripen E. On a simple cost per flight hour basis, the Tejas will easily win over the F-16. So then operating costs (CPFH) is a strong point to make the case for inducting even more Tejas aircraft

- To spend upwards of $20 billion to save on flight operating costs of the Rafale vis-a-viv the F-16 or Gripen E, is not a wise comparison at all. If that was the case, the then F-16IN or the Gripen NG should have won the initial MMRCA contest. All the twin engine planes should have lost, no?

KrishnaK wrote:My argument is that there's some logic to the SEF idea being floated - not what you or I would do. The IAF hasn't ordered 200 MK1As for example - it certainly could. The capacity it offers at the price point might not dovetail with its plans.

The logic is simple - make up the numbers within a specific time period. There is no other logic or formula present. So no point in spinning it. The irony is that the SEF cannot meet the timelines. And I will admit, neither will likely the Tejas.

But it is still wiser to go down the Tejas route, because of the following reasons;

- A good portion of the money (FOREX) spent on the platform stays within the country. Tejas - 1, SEF - 0
- To quote Air Commodore KA Muthanna, "Our Plane. We can do whatever we want with it." Tejas - 1, SEF - 0
- Tejas Mk1 is being inducted now. SEF, while more advanced than Mk1, is not. Not even a single nut or bolt. Tejas - 1, SEF - 0
- Tejas is more safer than MiG-21 and so is SEF. But Tejas - even in Mk1 form - is available now. Where is SEF? Tejas - 1, SEF - 0
- Tejas will carry Indian made weapons i.e. Astra. SEF, while technically possible, will require clearance from OEM. Tejas - 1, SEF - 0
- Tejas already employs hundreds of Indian citizens. SEF does not employ even one right now. Tejas - 1, SEF - 0

What use is the F-16 or Gripen's capacity, if it is always under the danger of Unkil's All Seeing Eye? That is like saying, I have a Ferrari parked in my garage...but my Daddy will not let me drive it, because he is the real owner. Daddy tells me what to do.

KrishnaK wrote:The MOD can be worked around if Modi decides to do another G2G deal. If not, the SEF idea will die a quiet death in the due course of time.

But we can only go by with what is known. And as of now, the SEF competition has yet to take off. There is no G2G deal.

I recently posted an article in the Indian Navy thread about the Vishaal ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7293&p=2246548#p2246548

The sub-heading in that article states ---> 'Vishal' makes more sense as a jobs program.

Which is what the true purpose of Make in India is and same is true with SEF. The problem is MII for Defence is mired in the archaic bureaucracy of the Ministry of Defence. And I for one, am truly happy that it has. The SEF offers no advantages for India, not ONE.

- Transfer of Technology? Not happening!
- Offer independence of the platform? Nope!
- Germinate a new aerospace industry? Never!
- Deliver 100 planes in a respectable timeframe? No Way!

The only things that SEF does for India is;

- Lose $20 billion of taxpayer money
- Be forever beholden to Amreeki tantrums
- Learn nothing of value from screwdrivergiri
- Stop further development of the Tejas platform i.e. Mk2

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 24 Jan 2018 09:58

Will the U.S. & India finally talk about the F-35?
https://www.stratpost.com/will-u-s-indi ... talk-f-35/

So why haven’t the two countries discussed this? Ask U.S government officials and they say, “India hasn’t asked for it.”

Indian officials say, “It hasn’t been offered to us for consideration.”

The possibility continues to remain imponderable.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 24 Jan 2018 10:02

^^^To play devil's mistress, What F16 or F18 can do is if we have a reasonable trained pool of pilots, in wartime if khan is allied with us (against china) we MAY get number of planes just like that.

Coming to reality, obviously for that we have to eat their leftovers and drink from their shoes like pukis. An idea that makes me throw out.
Another thing, a MK2 based evolution should further ease out pressure on AMCA if there are delays.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 24 Jan 2018 10:03

Rakesh wrote:That is the beauty of this thread. Same discussion, over & over & over & over....

Apart from Tejas, ATAGS, GSLV, missiles time seems to have not moved on BRF for last so many years.