VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

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Rakesh
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

@ Vips:

I did read that it would take three years for delivery, from the contract signature. I am unsure where I read it, so cannot provide the source.

If I come across it again, I will post it.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Vivek K »

While other industrialized nations deliver new generation weapons, we cannot even fully commit to those ready for show time. buying additional Rafales will keep India hooked on imports and unable to either fend for herself or implement a truly independent foreign policy. The economic benefits of domestic MIC were put up in plain terms in the Armored Vehicles thread.

This is now an interesting issue to watch (pocorn and chai biskoot out)! Will India grow up and believe in herself or keep begging other nations - building their industries while shuttering her own and condemning its population to poverty and backwardness. And this time the battle is not with an easy opponent like Pakistan! Its the big leagues. So Admiral sir - respectfully disagree. No more Rafales. Build the LCA MK2 in quick time. Make it a national priority.

Chicom is pulling away - India cannot just be a simple spectator funding the future of families of its top brass (politicos, generals, admirals et al).
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ldev »

Vips wrote:
shaun wrote:How true is this story of spectra blocking su35 Bars miles away and rendered 35s completely blind ?
Egypt had the choice to buy more Rafales or SU35 when it wanted additional 4.5++ jets. Now there has to be a very compelling reason why Egypt opted for Rafale's which are more expensive compared to the SU35 that were offered by Russia.

Egypt is the only country which has both the types in its fleet so any news coming from there has to be considered as credible.
Also consider that Egypt is getting the Rafale without it's two longest range weapons i.e. neither the Meteor AAM nor the SCALP AG cruise missile are part of either the first lot of 24 Rafales nor the second order of 30 Rafales. And it is more expensive vs the SU-35 but inspite of that Egypt has determined that the Rafale is superior to the SU-35.
MBDA will supply Egypt the Mica NG air-to-air missile, but the arms package excludes Meteor and Scalp missiles as these long-range weapons rely on US components covered by the international traffic in arms regulations, website La Tribune reported. Safran Electronics & Defense will supply its AASM powered smart bomb.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cain Marko »

ldev wrote:
Vips wrote:
Egypt had the choice to buy more Rafales or SU35 when it wanted additional 4.5++ jets. Now there has to be a very compelling reason why Egypt opted for Rafale's which are more expensive compared to the SU35 that were offered by Russia.

Egypt is the only country which has both the types in its fleet so any news coming from there has to be considered as credible.
And it is more expensive vs the SU-35 but inspite of that Egypt has determined that the Rafale is superior to the SU-35.
Err, these seem to be premature conclusions. It could simply be that the Rafales are cheaper to maintain and fly than the massive Su-35s. The MKIs have done quite well vs Rafales in a variety of exercises.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Vivek K wrote:While other industrialized nations deliver new generation weapons, we cannot even fully commit to those ready for show time. buying additional Rafales will keep India hooked on imports and unable to either fend for herself or implement a truly independent foreign policy. The economic benefits of domestic MIC were put up in plain terms in the Armored Vehicles thread.

This is now an interesting issue to watch (pocorn and chai biskoot out)! Will India grow up and believe in herself or keep begging other nations - building their industries while shuttering her own and condemning its population to poverty and backwardness. And this time the battle is not with an easy opponent like Pakistan! Its the big leagues. So Admiral sir - respectfully disagree. No more Rafales. Build the LCA MK2 in quick time. Make it a national priority.

Chicom is pulling away - India cannot just be a simple spectator funding the future of families of its top brass (politicos, generals, admirals et al).
Your opinion is valid. But unless you can alter reality, what I said in my post stands.

The laws of time apply to everyone and everything. Making anything a national priority will not alter reality.

You said it best below...and not just the red portion, but the entire paragraph...
Vivek K wrote:I50 Mirages would have kept Rafales out. The Rafale fleet therefore plus the M2K fleet size should be that much to counter two hostile neighbors. So another 36 Rafales should be purchased ASAP and delivered quickly. This would allow time for the Mk2 and AMCA to develop and mature without loss of capability. LCA Mk2 can definitely replace the Jag + Mig -27 fleets. IAF should be looking to grow to 45 squadrons. LCA can help with that enhancement.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

I have not been keeping track of the deliveries, but if the below tweet is true...it is quite amazing.

https://twitter.com/KiranKS/status/1417 ... 52608?s=20 ---> In just one year, nearly 28 Rafales have joined the Indian Air Force fighting lineup. The latest three joined today. Next week, the second Rafale squadron would be operational. Such speedy strengthening of IAF was unimaginable in India before Modi. Purchases took years/decades.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ldev »

Cain Marko wrote: Err, these seem to be premature conclusions. It could simply be that the Rafales are cheaper to maintain and fly than the massive Su-35s.
Operating cost differ widely among different countries e.g. at least according to one site, in the Indian context the operating cost of the MKI is USD 10,000 per hour, the Mirage 2000 is USD 3700 per hour, the Mig 29 is USD 6500 per hour and the Rafale is USD 12,000 per hour. If Egypt was hell bent and very keen on getting the F-15E and the F-35 from the US both of which which have higher operating costs e.g. than anything in the IAF fleet, I don't think that operating cost is a priority for Egypt.

There are reports that Egypt does not want this order of 30 F3R Rafales to be the last one either. Finances permitting they would like their Rafale fleet at somewhere between 72 and 100 including Rafales built to the F4 standard.
The MKIs have done quite well vs Rafales in a variety of exercises.
Which exercises? Reported where? I doubt that the IAF (which IMO has undoubtedly run those exercises) will ever divulge the true outcome specially sensor performance of one aircraft vs another. Why would the IAF expose potential vulnerabilities? A bland statement of "the aircraft performed well" is what is expected.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Manish_P »

Rakesh wrote:I have not been keeping track of the deliveries, but if the below tweet is true...it is quite amazing.

https://twitter.com/KiranKS/status/1417 ... 52608?s=20 ---> In just one year, nearly 28 Rafales have joined the Indian Air Force fighting lineup. The latest three joined today. Next week, the second Rafale squadron would be operational. Such speedy strengthening of IAF was unimaginable in India before Modi. Purchases took years/decades.
Jai Ganesha!

What's even more impressive is that this was in COVID times

If France can be so efficient, imagine King Khan going banzai mode :shock:
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Khalsa »

Purchase of the Rafale is the quickest way to ensure the sword arm of the IAF remains sharp and durrust (urdu punjabi word) for the coming 25 years.
It also ensure the speediest burial off the MRCA or MMRCA and Possibly the Naval MRCA (if there is one).
It also ensures the steady stand up of the strategic pathway to final independence from phoren fighters.

there is only problem .... the entire world can also simultaneously your game plan now .... and we still can't make engines.

There are two other big unspoken advantages of keeping the MMRCA alive.
Delays the American sanctions until MMRCA is not buried.
Allows for the purchasing of UN security council backing against China.

Welcome the strategic chequer board.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ArjunPandit »

Manish_P wrote:If France can be so efficient, imagine King Khan going banzai mode :shock:
that is exactly the problem that we need to manage khannate very well....inspite of all the challenges, and contrary to my love for Tejas/AMCA, I cant deny the value that american fighters bring on table
- clockwork precision delivery.
- larger base resulting in
* lower r&d costs
* well defined, reliable and lower cost maintenance estimates
* faster attrition replacement


of course all of this comes at the expense of loss of strategic autonomy and death of domestic MIC
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by fanne »

if Rafale 4 is offered (at not very high cost, we have cost of version 3 written in contract, it cannot go up, version 4 price can be anything, even unreasonable), we should go for it in place of version 3. This is what version4 offer - Network capability, SDR (the question would be what kind of SDR, the Israeli ones that is going in rest of the fleet?), some improvements (which perhaps we can ignore). The network capability will be worth it, Rafale beaming information from it sensors to other planes, to a centralized location....so a Rafale flying over LAC (Depsang) can beam where the PLAA armor is (when supposedly our other sensors have been knocked out in first strike by chinese) and help our ground forces, artillery, LCH to fire its anti-tank guns. Of course what then also needs is development and integration of a superb info sharing system (but that is the point of theater command). It will be one (but a very worthy) of the component in the system.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

ArjunPandit wrote:
Manish_P wrote:If France can be so efficient, imagine King Khan going banzai mode :shock:
that is exactly the problem that we need to manage khannate very well....inspite of all the challenges, and contrary to my love for Tejas/AMCA, I cant deny the value that american fighters bring on table
- clockwork precision delivery.
- larger base resulting in
* lower r&d costs
* well defined, reliable and lower cost maintenance estimates
* faster attrition replacement


of course all of this comes at the expense of loss of strategic autonomy and death of domestic MIC
What R&D costs are you referring to?

With regards to the faster attrition replacement, that is a myth. It has nothing to do with the manufacturing capacity of the American OEMs to churn out planes like pancakes, but no such agreement exists. It has been argued on BRF that in times of war, the US would replace their F-16s or F-18s on a one to one basis to keep up the strength of the squadrons. Nothing could be further from the truth.

1. We will be paying - like we would to any other OEM/nation - to replace any aircraft lost. The 12 Su-30MKIs and the one C-130 crash are examples that come to mind.
2. By the time the aircraft arrive - if it is in the midst of a war - the war will already be over. Win or lose, it would not matter.
3. If it is the F-21, we would be the sole customer of the aircraft with India Specific Enchancements. So borrowing F-16s from USAF stocks or some other friendly F-16 operating nation will not work.
4. The sensors and avionics on the F-21, along with the F-15EX and F-18 Super Hornet would be export grade, just like the P-8I Neptune is in relation to the P-8A Poseidon. Not going to be an easy fix to do, in the rapid pace of war.
5. And if the IAF is losing a large number of American origin planes in combat, then there is something seriously wrong with the aircraft or with the pilot who is operating the aircraft. An acceptable attrition level is to be expected, but a large number does not bode well. Refer to the attrition level at Ex Gagan Shakti.

Even in peacetime, this faster attrition replacement theory will not hold water either. But to the American’s credit, they have always delivered on time or even prior. Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin have proved that time and time again to India.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ArjunPandit »

apologies for bringing the same points again. At the same time please dont think i am batting for teens. My preference still remains
1. Tejas
2. Rafale+other planes existing in our inventory (Su 30/Mig 29)

That said i would still like to bring the points again..and have a Discussion on teens is regarding the value that they bring. Request you to please feel free to delete if you think it is adding to junk on thread.
Rakesh wrote:What R&D costs are you referring to?
R&D Costs for the plane itself, including that of continuous development..being developed over larger base, it could be amortized over larger base and per plane costs works out lower.
Rakesh wrote:With regards to the faster attrition replacement, that is a myth. It has nothing to do with the manufacturing capacity of the American OEMs to churn out planes like pancakes, but no such agreement exists. It has been argued on BRF that in times of war, the US would replace their F-16s or F-18s on a one to one basis to keep up the strength of the squadrons. Nothing could be further from the truth.
1. We will be paying - like we would to any other OEM/nation - to replace any aircraft lost. The 12 Su-30MKIs and the one C-130 crash are examples that come to mind.
2. By the time the aircraft arrive - if it is in the midst of a war - the war will already be over. Win or lose, it would not matter.
it's not just US, what you are referring to myth is a fact for our western neighbour that is a matter of life for paxtan..i dont want to go that route, but having that option is open..with france, which has such small no.s and that too for its use it does not seem possible, if not impossible. Again US it would be faster without dent in their capabilities yes costs would be there but it can be worked out. For a two front war that is helpful. Also, note that you are making a big assumption that war will be over in a matter of a few weeks. US can act fast (that too is an assumption i agree) but in absence of RECENT precedents we can both have our viewpoints.
Rakesh wrote: 3. If it is the F-21, we would be the sole customer of the aircraft with India Specific Enhancements. So borrowing F-16s from USAF stocks or some other friendly F-16 operating nation will not work.
4. The sensors and avionics on the F-21, along with the F-15EX and F-18 Super Hornet would be export grade, just like the P-8I Neptune is in relation to the P-8A Poseidon. Not going to be an easy fix to do, in the rapid pace of war.
I have assumed significant commonality for flying. Happy to be corrected on this..I would assume if someone has flown F16 can fly f21 too and can tap majority of the limits of the machine or
Rakesh wrote: 5. And if the IAF is losing a large number of American origin planes in combat, then there is something seriously wrong with the aircraft or with the pilot who is operating the aircraft. An acceptable attrition level is to be expected, but a large number does not bode well. Refer to the attrition level at Ex Gagan Shakti.
Even in peacetime, this faster attrition replacement theory will not hold water either. But to the American’s credit, they have always delivered on time or even prior. Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin have proved that time and time again to India.
That is not necessary, it depends upon what type of operations we conduct. IAF being an aggressive force will undertake high risk missions, our pilot to plane ratio is not bad either. At times we would have to take SEAD/DEAD or operate low in SAM or in defended areas. There would be ground attrition too due to terrorist..We should prevent it by all means, but I would prefer to keep that option open too.

Again in all cases tejas is the best bet..we should have increased gotten for higher production rate for both MK1 and Mk1A..
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Vivek K »

It would be great to know the current serviceability rates of all IAF and IN aircraft including the remaining bisons and the newly inducted Tejas.

No nation squanders its industrial opportunities like India has - and survives. We cannot expect foreign vendors to act as "Indians" when we ourselves run after bribes and green cards. The difference between imports (imported supply chain) and domestic systems is that in the case of the latter, you would expect to be able to support the weapons during crunch times without having to cannibalize.

A war with China would be short only if one side caves in to the other. Since that may not happen, India needs to build up both quantity and quality of weapon systems. But is that happening? Take the struggles of the IAF - a fleet that can lose an additional 125 bisons in the next 2-4 years. And it is quite something else that a force such as IAF is still flying bisons - design of the 60s with enhancements in the 90s and we expect it to perform well against the combined PLAAF and PAF. It is a testament to the skill and training of the IAF personnel that such obsolete aircraft are still flying. Replacing 125 bisons with 36 - 75 Rafales (or similar number of MKIs) introduces a qualitative leap though still far short of the required strength enhancement needed for the IAF to counter the enemy. And will we be able to support these in a 2-3 month war?

HAL cannot avoid criticism for its lackadaisical approach to national security and loose timelines. Things have gone so bad in the past year that they're perhaps at a breaking point. Unless clandestine deliveries are occurring, HAL's failure to perform would be cause enough to disband it in any industrialized nation or to re-structure it and monitor it weekly with the PMO and the IAF top Brass working daily with it. Such poor performance justifies IAF's distrust of HAL and domestic efforts. If Covid was the cause of HAL's failure, that is a direct indictment of its top brass for failing to keep their vital human resources protected in the interest of national security. If the chief of HAL was a military official, he should have been court martialed.

IMHO - Tejas is a good product and Mk1/1A are vital for IAF in large numbers (200+) delivered at the rate of 50 a/c per year - not the piddly 8-16 (even that is not being achieved so far). It is imperative that HAL be re-structured to improve its future performance in the national interest. Through its failures, HAL has indirectly made the case for the Rafale stronger. And the Rafale makes more sense than the teens because of the M2K infrastructure and investment.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

ArjunPandit wrote:R&D Costs for the plane itself, including that of continuous development..being developed over larger base, it could be amortized over larger base and per plane costs works out lower.
That only matters once the aircraft have passed the technical down select. That did not happen in MMRCA 1.0 and nothing in DPP 2016 indicates that it will change in the 114 MRFA deal, assuming that deal ever sees the light of day.

Please remember, India can only benefit from the large industrial American base if the deal is worth 100+ planes. None of the OEMs would be eager to transfer an entire production line for a mere 36 birds or two squadrons, as it was in the case of the Rafale. The Dassault CEO even said that he would transfer the entire line, if India signed a deal for 100+ aircraft. The reality is that the $10 billion that the IAF had set aside, was never going to be enough for 126 MMRCA. And neither do they have the $15 - $20 billion (at minimum) for 114 MRFA now.

The industrial base that Lockheed Martin and Boeing have is definitely larger than any of her Western or Eastern counterparts. However zeroing in on the defunct 126 MMRCA deal or the still alive 114 MRFA deal, the American teens would not have been significantly cheaper than any of the other contestants. Even the Russian offerings - MiG-35 and Su-35 - at 126 or 114 birds will run into tens of billions of dollars.

The Russians would have been the cheapest overall, but then the question arises...that would they have been - at minimum - on par with their Western counterparts? I would say no. That is my opinion. The F-teens would have been the next cheapest overall, but then the IAF is apprehensive - as indicated in the CAG report - about American fighters.

That leaves the Gripen, Rafale and Typhoon, with the latter two being the most expensive of the lot. And we are all aware of how that turned out. And none of them - at 126 or 114 birds - would have been cheap. But the technical downselect comes first. That is the way the DPP is set up.

Like the teens, the European three are all being further developed as well. However, the industrial base being smaller...the cost of the upgrades are higher. That is to be expected. I don't follow the Typhoon development, but the Rafale and Gripen both have defined developmental plans. It will be expensive to upgrade (as in the Mirage 2000 upgrade), but once upgraded these aircraft can stand toe-to-toe against their American counterparts. Some areas the F-teens will have the advantage and in some areas, the Euro birds will have the advantage. A Mirage 2000-9 is equally capable to a F-16 Block 50/52 and there will be areas which both aircraft have key advantages.

It is too late now for any new 4th generation phoren fighter to enter service with the IAF in triple digits. That ship has sailed and so has the industrial base advantages that the F-teens will bring.
ArjunPandit wrote:it's not just US, what you are referring to myth is a fact for our western neighbour that is a matter of life for paxtan..i dont want to go that route, but having that option is open..with france, which has such small no.s and that too for its use it does not seem possible, if not impossible. Again US it would be faster without dent in their capabilities yes costs would be there but it can be worked out. For a two front war that is helpful. Also, note that you are making a big assumption that war will be over in a matter of a few weeks. US can act fast (that too is an assumption i agree) but in absence of RECENT precedents we can both have our viewpoints.
Today's wars are not going to be slug fests like the 1965 Indo-Pak War or the 1962 Indo-China War. It will be over in a week, with one party being the winner and the other the loser. The sheer firepower that will be unleashed and the destruction of men & material will be on a massive scale. And it will be quick. Galwan will look like a picnic compared to an all out war between India and China. And the Chinese got the resources to go all in. Right now at the border, both sides are preparing for that very eventuality. And the Chinese are waiting for the first advantage to start it. They will commence when they truly believe they will end up as the clear winner. That has yet to occur, thanks to the Indian Armed Forces.

The export grade sensors and avionics on board an Indian F-teen (F-21, F-15EX or F-18SH) will not be at the same spec as their US counterparts. By the time these birds are downgraded and then shipped off/flown to India, the war will be over. In skirmishes (i.e. Balakot-style), the F-teens will prevail. There is nothing that the PLAAF currently has, that will win over the F-teens. And the same is true for Rafale. And if in these skirmishes, the PLAAF is going to get humiliated and mauled...why would they put more of the same resources into play?

And this is all assuming such an agreement actually exists and the GOI is actually willing to replenish the squadron strength after the massive cost incurred on the war. The number of variables at play here are numerous. Any one of them makes a wrong turn and nothing will arrive. Back in the late 90s, when I used to visit NaPaki forums for a good laugh, these two were the prevailing theories (bedtime stories) back then...

1) Pakistan and China have signed an agreement with the PAF's F-7PG fleet. For every F-7PG that would crash in PAF service, the Chinese would replenish them. Reportedly China had a number of F-7PGs in shipping crates ready to be sent to Pakistan for this very eventuality.

2) Pakistan and the Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia & others) have an "Ummah" agreement which will allow the PAF to use their Mirage 2000s, F-16s and Tornados in times of war against India. The Muslim Brotherhood against the evil Yindoos or as the NaPakis call it...Ghazwa-E-Hind :lol:

Reading what you have typed above, brings back that memory. Thank you for that.

The global economy will not permit long term war (for weeks or months) either. At the end of the day, money talks. India and China are deeply connected into the global economy. You cannot just shut the country down for weeks or months and go to war, as India and Pakistan did in 1947-48, 1965 and 1971. Or as India and China did in 1962. That will be a financial catastrophe, that the rest of the world just will not allow.

And if the F-teens are crashing in droves in peacetime, then are some serious design flaws at work, or pilot error or some other extenuating factor. Those have to be addressed first. Please look up the Luftwaffe's experience with the F-104 Starfighter. But to just borrow aircraft from Amreeki stocks is not going to work. There are a whole bunch of export restrictions that have to be ironed out and addressed. And those aircraft being exported to India have to be on the same spec as the ones in India.
ArjunPandit wrote:I have assumed significant commonality for flying. Happy to be corrected on this..I would assume if someone has flown F16 can fly f21 too and can tap majority of the limits of the machine
That is not the issue, as advised in my reply above.
Rakesh wrote:That is not necessary, it depends upon what type of operations we conduct. IAF being an aggressive force will undertake high risk missions, our pilot to plane ratio is not bad either. At times we would have to take SEAD/DEAD or operate low in SAM or in defended areas. There would be ground attrition too due to terrorist..We should prevent it by all means, but I would prefer to keep that option open too.

Again in all cases tejas is the best bet..we should have increased gotten for higher production rate for both MK1 and Mk1A..
Any air operations conducted in Chinese airspace will result in losses. The IAF has factored in what an acceptable loss will be. Exceeding those numbers would mean there is something doctrinally wrong in how the air operations are being conducted or the platforms being put into use are deeply flawed or the pilots operating these aircraft have been not properly trained on how to exploit the platform to its full potential. And these are issues that will be looked at post war, but not in the middle of it. Once the dust settles, then these issues can be looked at.

But in the middle of the conflict and in the face of massive loss, the question that needs to be asked is NOT how can I replenish these lost aircraft...but rather, why is the attrition rate of these aircraft so high? After all the F-teens (F-21, F-15EX and F-18SH) represent the best of Amreeki 4th generation technology. The enemy is the PLAAF. The AESA radar on all three F-teens are nothing short of spectacular and I could be wrong, but I believe these are second or third generation AESA radars. Something is obviously very wrong with this picture, if F-teens are going to get swatted like flies against the PLAAF. I fail to believe that Lockheed Martin and Boeing would sell India a bag of lima beans. But if the reverse is true, then what you are saying will not occur. My trust lies in that fact.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Vivek K wrote:It would be great to know the current serviceability rates of all IAF and IN aircraft including the remaining bisons and the newly inducted Tejas.
I am not sure if such info is released in those parliamentary questions that come up online. An average percentage stat may exist somewhere in public. But the actual percentage may not be revealed for security concerns.
Vivek K wrote:A war with China would be short only if one side caves in to the other. Since that may not happen, India needs to build up both quantity and quality of weapon systems. But is that happening? Take the struggles of the IAF - a fleet that can lose an additional 125 bisons in the next 2-4 years. And it is quite something else that a force such as IAF is still flying bisons - design of the 60s with enhancements in the 90s and we expect it to perform well against the combined PLAAF and PAF. It is a testament to the skill and training of the IAF personnel that such obsolete aircraft are still flying. Replacing 125 bisons with 36 - 75 Rafales (or similar number of MKIs) introduces a qualitative leap though still far short of the required strength enhancement needed for the IAF to counter the enemy. And will we be able to support these in a 2-3 month war?
First, we need to define what type of war. Border skirmishes or full out war or something in between?

1. There will be no two-three month all out war happening. I would seriously doubt anything that China claims about its military, if it is going to take them two to three months to achieve a decisive victory.

2. The next option are border skirmishes or air battles or naval battles. Based on what I am reading - not from you - on this forum, we are staring at 100% certain defeat. Now obviously that is not true.

3. It is not just 36 Rafales that will be replacing 100+ Bisons. It is 83 Tejas Mk1As + 36 Rafales + likely 21 MiG-29s + likely 12 attrition replacement Su-30MKIs. Not including the 12 attrition replacement Su-30MKIs, it works out to 140 aircraft. So obviously greater than 100+ Bisons. But look beyond the numbers and think of the capability leap that it brings to the IAF. What would take 3 - 4 Bisons to accomplish could be done by 1 - 2 Tejas Mk1As or one Rafale or 1 - 2 MiG-29s or one Su-30MKI. Raw numbers alone do not tell the whole story.
Vivek K wrote:HAL cannot avoid criticism for its lackadaisical approach to national security and loose timelines. Things have gone so bad in the past year that they're perhaps at a breaking point. Unless clandestine deliveries are occurring, HAL's failure to perform would be cause enough to disband it in any industrialized nation or to re-structure it and monitor it weekly with the PMO and the IAF top Brass working daily with it. Such poor performance justifies IAF's distrust of HAL and domestic efforts. If Covid was the cause of HAL's failure, that is a direct indictment of its top brass for failing to keep their vital human resources protected in the interest of national security. If the chief of HAL was a military official, he should have been court martialed.
While HAL has been lackadaisical in the past, the past year I honestly cannot blame HAL. The COVID-19 virus ravaged the country and I believe HAL lost over a number of employees due to COVID. 2020 and the first half of 2021 has not been a fun time for anyone in India, including HAL. As I mentioned to you earlier, everything is riding on the 83 Mk1A order. HAL has to deliver, otherwise Tejas is staring at a bleak future.
Vivek K wrote:IMHO - Tejas is a good product and Mk1/1A are vital for IAF in large numbers (200+) delivered at the rate of 50 a/c per year - not the piddly 8-16 (even that is not being achieved so far). It is imperative that HAL be re-structured to improve its future performance in the national interest. Through its failures, HAL has indirectly made the case for the Rafale stronger. And the Rafale makes more sense than the teens because of the M2K infrastructure and investment.
I truly believe additional Mk1As will come above the 83. Valid arguments have been made otherwise, but for some reason I do believe the IAF will end up with 1 - 2 units more of this bird. And that request will come from the IAF onlee. A production run of 160+ Tejas Mk1/Mk1As will be nice considering the hoops that this aircraft had to go through during her developmental cycle.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Vivek K »

Rakesh - failing to build on the LCA will be the beginning of the end of India's quest to be a power. The Marut, the Arjun then the Tejas - no one will touch Indian defense sector with a barge pole.

Your belief in the Rafale and its capabilities is good. However, every weapon's superiority over its competitors lasts only a while before alternatives come up. Funny, the MKI was sold as an air dominance fighter and now it is cast aside for the next super toy! The Rafale will go the same way unless domestic innovation is engaged to upgrade and come up with newer tech and add ons to defeat the enemy. By the time the much lusted for 72 rafales are delivered, the enemy will have come up with tech to counter them. That is why the LCA, MK2, AMCA are the answer - not additional imports.

China will not push over India. But India will be stretched. Any war that lasts longer will cause problems for India. There is no shortage of valor in the Indian armed forces - but they deserve better. Though the LCA and the Rafales bring in more capabilities than the Mig 21s, the air forces they will fight have improved their average fighter too.

HAL needs to get is act together - import vaccines, protect its staff because that is important to national security. If it cannot, then India must bite the bullet and re-structure it now.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cain Marko »

Rakesh wrote: It is not just 36 Rafales that will be replacing 100+ Bisons. It is 83 Tejas Mk1As + 36 Rafales + likely 21 MiG-29s + likely 12 attrition replacement Su-30MKIs. Not including the 12 attrition replacement Su-30MKIs, it works out to 140 aircraft. So obviously greater than 100+ Bisons.
Aah sir let's not forget to add the 40 mk1 Tejas to that tally. Altogether, IAF will likely get 36 raffle, 123 Tejas, 21 fulcrum in it's inventory around the time the bison disappear.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Barath »

Rakesh wrote: I truly believe additional Mk1As will come above the 83. Valid arguments have been made otherwise, but for some reason I do believe the IAF will end up with 1 - 2 units more of this bird. And that request will come from the IAF onlee.
Why additional Mk1A instead of (additional) Mk2 ? What's the thinking behind it ?
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ArjunPandit »

while we dither on different options of tejas ...35th rafale will be joining this year....and 36th next year...
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 58804.html

while this would do great to the short term security of the nation...there should be some introspection in MOD, HAL, and IAF as to why we ended up in a place that we ended up with more rafale than tejas and more importantly what can be done to avoid this in future. Yes there will be arguments like there are 200+rafale already and it has been in some form since 1986 and has joined force in 2001 but still we knew our situation and the fact that we didnt order Mk1/Mk1a earlier or no additional production lines even though a lot of stuff is inhouse is something a lesson we must apply to avoid making same mistake for AMCA

I would be very surprised if this slow pace of delivery is not used to beat tejas as a stick and call for imports.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

I believe that solo fighter is RB008 - a twin seater that is currently undergoing flight tests in France with all the ISE upgrades. The remaining 35 aircraft will all complete their upgrades in 2022. The entire order of 36 birds is expected to be completed in 18+ months, at a statistical average of 2 birds per month. The first batch of Rafales arrived at Ambala AFS on 29 July 2020.

France to deliver 35 Rafales by 2021-end, a solo fighter will join in Jan 2022
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 58804.html
27 July 2021
Given the reliability of strategic ally France, the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Indian Navy have evinced keen interest in Rafale platform due to its weight to power ratio and maritime strike capabilities. Apparently, the IAF leadership wants to acquire another 36 Rafales in future and the Navy is looking at Rafale-M as a fighter option onboard INS Vikrant (Indigenous aircraft carrier-1), to be commissioned next year.
A couple of points to note above;

1) Eyebrows were raised when Vice Admiral G Ashok Kumar, the VCNS attended a Rafale event in France, in relation to the IAF's Rafale. The buzz was that what is *HE* doing here? ,

2) In Oct 2019, Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria at a press conference clearly stated that there are *NO* plans to acquire another 36 Rafales and the 114 MRFA contest is underway. A year later (Oct 2020), he stated that the IAF is looking at another 36 Rafales.

The GOI may merge the two contests into one. Probably 36 Rafales for the IAF and 36 Rafales for the IN. The IN number has been reduced from 57 to 36. The Rafale M can operate alongside the IAF Rafales, just as the IN MiG-29Ks are doing, assisting the IAF against the PLAAF in the north east. The French have offered another 36 Rafales + six A330 MRTTs + the Panther production line as a package deal.

Additional Rafales are not guaranteed to come though. All eyes are right now on the French judge who is investigating the deal. Any negative news comes out from there and additional Rafales will not happen.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Mort Walker »

In 2032, we'll be talking about when the contract for the 36 additional Rafales will be signed when GoI has verbally committed to it in 2028. In 2029, GoI will also be planning to begin discussions on the Rafale-M for the IN. Hopefully, the contract is signed by 2034 with deliveries starting by 2036.

PM Priyanka Gandhi was informed by Minister of Defence Rahul Gandhi that as an offset, Dassault has offered to build a potato factory in eastern Maharashtra.
:rotfl:
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

:D Rafale will be obsolete by 2036. It won’t matter then.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by nachiket »

Rakesh wrote::D Rafale will be obsolete by 2036. It won’t matter then.
The F-16 is a contender for the 114 MRCA in 2021 (and likely several more years). I won't be surprised if we send out an RFP for the same in 2026 with bidding, technical and financial evaluations, choosing L1 and negotiations taking till 2036 before the government of the day says dekho no money and cancels the whole thing or worse still orders 36 F-16's off the shelf for $20 billion. Meanwhile MoD baboos will be negotiating with HAL to reduce the price for a 15 aircraft order for the LCA Mk2 with IAF refusing to buy more till ADA works on 73 specified improvements without making the aircraft too heavy to be useful.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Well said nachiket! Although this Rafale being obsolete by 2036 was meant as a joke to Mort-ji. I was just repeating verbatim what BRF's risk assessor said about the Rafale. The same standard does not apply to the F-teens :lol:

Mort-ji is just being tongue-in-cheek :)
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by LakshmanPST »

Additional Rafales are not guaranteed to come though. All eyes are right now on the French judge who is investigating the deal. Any negative news comes out from there and additional Rafales will not happen.
I feel GOI should have ordered 72 Rafales in one go instead of ordering only 36 jets...
Ordering Rafales in a G2G deal was a political risk... If GOI was taking a political risk, they should have atleast ordered good enough numbers...
One can not keep taking political risks again and again...

One can say that GOI planned to buy 114 additional Rafales via MRFA deal... I'd disagree because when the deal for 36 Rafales was signed, the plan was to buy 114 single engine birds... At the same time, they built base facilities enough for 72 Rafales... They were definitely planning to buy 36 more Rafales separately via a follow on deal...
Plans seem to have changed with the exit of Parrikar... They probably shelved the 36 follow-on deal and instead converted 114 single engine jet to 114 MRFA deal with the hope of getting 114 Rafales...

Now we're staring at a situation where we might end up with just 36 Rafales... Rest assured, once Modi Govt. exits, I'm pretty sure we'll not buy any more Rafales...
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Aditya_V »

36 Rafales brought so much controversy, 72 Rafales would be politically indefensible. Clearly INC wanted to weaken the Indian Military so Pakis can enjoy Mumbai and Pulwama without fear and just a few Dosas
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by LakshmanPST »

Aditya_V wrote:36 Rafales brought so much controversy, 72 Rafales would be politically indefensible. Clearly INC wanted to weaken the Indian Military so Pakis can enjoy Mumbai and Pulwama without fear and just a few Dosas
Actually, the numbers wouldn't have mattered back in 2015/16 coz. we cancelled 126 and ordered 36... Even if we had ordered 72, the amount of controversy and political circus would have been the same then... Numbers wouldn't have mattered...

Now, if we go for additional 36, the same political circus would repeat again and Govt. has to fight it out all over again... And now to order 36 more, they need to cancel the 114 MRFA tender... Any person will now ask why an open tender is cancelled and G2G deal is being signed...
In a way GoI pushed itself to a corner and they either have to face the circus again or go ahead with 114 MRFA process and wait for it to die a natural death as its elder brother before ordering 36...

GoI has a small oppurtunity now though... They can cite Corona as a reason to cancel MRFA tender... They can even cite MIG21 retirement & the standard reason of "falling squadron numbers" to 'urgently' order 36 more Rafales...
But I fear they have time only till 2022 to make a decision & start implementing it....
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Aditya_V »

GOI can do that only if they order more Tejas, this decesion cannot be taken earlier than 2023
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by LakshmanPST »

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1420380548048986113?s=19
Induction of the second squadron of Rafale fighter aircraft at the Hashimara air base in West Bengal. The 101 squadron is starting with around half a dozen Rafale aircraft. Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria was present at the airbase on the occasion.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

In the last picture below, notice the Su-30MKI patch on the pilot shaking hands with Air Chief Marshal Bhadauria Sir. Rambha pilots are among the roster of Katrina pilots.

https://twitter.com/SpokespersonMoD/sta ... 57416?s=20 ---> Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria presided over the formal induction ceremony of Rafale aircraft into No. 101 Squadron at Hasimara AFS in Eastern Air Command today.

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Induction ceremony of Rafale aircraft into 101 Squadron on 28 July 2021
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1740021
28 July 2021

The Indian Air Force formally inducted Rafale aircraft into No. 101 Squadron at Air Force Station Hasimara in Eastern Air Command (EAC) on 28 Jul 21. Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria PVSM AVSM VM ADC, Chief of the Air Staff presided over the induction ceremony. On arrival, CAS was received by Air Marshal Amit Dev AVSM VSM, Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Eastern Air Command. The event also included a fly-past heralding the arrival of Rafale aircraft to Hasimara followed by a traditional water cannon salute.

Addressing the personnel during the induction ceremony, CAS said that the induction of Rafale had been carefully planned at Hasimara; keeping in mind the importance of strengthening IAF's capability in the Eastern Sector. Recalling the glorious history of 101 Squadron which bestowed upon them the title of 'Falcons of Chamb and Akhnoor', CAS urged the personnel to combine their zeal and commitment with the unmatched potential of the newly inducted platform. He said that he had no doubt that the Squadron would dominate whenever and wherever required and ensure that the adversary would always be intimidated by their sheer presence.

101 Squadron is the second IAF Squadron to be equipped with Rafale aircraft. The Squadron was formed on 01 May 1949 at Palam and has operated Harvard, Spitfire, Vampire, Su-7 and MiG-21M aircraft in the past. The glorious history of this Squadron includes active participation in 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pak Wars.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ramana »

Since when did this water cannon salute become tradition of IAF?
It's traditional to USAF.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by viveks »

The first time I saw that tradition was when they acquired the Boeing - 777.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Vivek K »

IMHO this is a standard practice the world over when inducting new aircraft - civilian or military.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ldev »

Qatar to base military aircraft including Rafales in Turkey
According to Qatari and Turkish press reports, some 12 Qatari Rafale fighters and 10 Mirage 2000 warplanes, along with C-130J Super Hercules and C-17 transporters, will be deployed in Turkey under the agreement (There is no clear information on when Qatar intends to deploy its planes to Turkey.) Its a strengthening of the relationship between the two countries; Turkey has a military base in Doha with some 5,000 troops stationed there.
Looking down the road, the basing of the fighter jets could become permanent, and Doha might even consider donating them to Ankara as a token of appreciation, if approval is granted from Paris.
Great, so some Rafales will be donated to Turkey and then will become part of the Turkey-Pakistan-Qatar Anatolian airforce exercises!!
Breaking Defense reached out via email to the French Ministry of Defense (MoD) seeking comments on the Turkish-Qatari pact. The French MoD acknowledged its awareness of the agreement and pointed out that “only paragraph 15 of article 4 concerns fighter planes and that it is only mentioned that in the event of the flight of (Qatari) fighter planes a Turkish plane must be part of the flight.”
According to Justine Mazonier, a French independent security consultant, this agreement could give the French defense industry a step towards penetrating the Turkish market — a long sought goal.
NIce, so the French having sold Rafales to Greece now want to sell the same plane to Turkey!!
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

ldev wrote:NIce, so the French having sold Rafales to Greece now want to sell the same plane to Turkey!!
So the Americans having sold F-16s to Greece, sold the same to Turkey. So the Americans having sold F-16s to Israel, sold the same to the UAE. So the Americans having sold F-15s to Israel, sold the same to the Saudis. So the Americans having sold F-16s to Pakistan, now want to sell the same to India. So the AIM-120s that Greece has, are the same that Turkey has. The AIM-120s that Pakistan has, will be more or less the same that we will get...assuming we buy an American plane. Same logic no? The French learn from the best ;)

Or are we to now understand that when the French do it, they are being evil and sneaky. But when the Americans do it, they are doing it out of larger global peace initiatives. Maintain the regional parity and all that wonderful crap that GOTUS loves to lecture about.

When you come up with astute gems like this, please remember that America does the exact same thing. But obviously, you conveniently overlooked that fact.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ArjunPandit »

anyone can have a rafale(provided they can afford to)..all boils down to who uses it and how ..they can know all about the weaknesses of rafale but still on that day they dont know..its an old game...but yes american do it not just for peace but also for freedom, liberty and democracy and in the interests of their allies
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ldev »

The US ensures that it's allies retain a qualitative edge when similar weapons are supplied e.g. Egypt never got either the AMRAAM or JASSM on it's F-16s inspite of having the 4th largest F-16 fleet in the world to ensure that Israel would retain it's qualitative edge over Egypt. Numerous other examples of this policy, the latest being those countries which the US has offered to sell the F-35. US policy is to ensure that it's allies will always retain a technology advantage vs their rivals/enemies.

In contrast France sells equipment to those who can pay with little sensitivity regarding the impact of their subsequent sales on their earlier customers.

French sales are guided by money/funding to keep their domestic military industrial complex going.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

ldev wrote:The US ensures that it's allies retain a qualitative edge when similar weapons are supplied e.g. Egypt never got either the AMRAAM or JASSM on it's F-16s inspite of having the 4th largest F-16 fleet in the world to ensure that Israel would retain it's qualitative edge over Egypt. Numerous other examples of this policy, the latest being those countries which the US has offered to sell the F-35. US policy is to ensure that it's allies will always retain a technology advantage vs their rivals/enemies.

In contrast France sells equipment to those who can pay with little sensitivity regarding the impact of their subsequent sales on their earlier customers.

French sales are guided by money/funding to keep their domestic military industrial complex going.
I never brought up Egypt, but rather Turkey and Greece. They both have AMRAAMs. So the qualitative edge lecture you are now giving is a moot point. And the Saudis and the UAE also have AMRAAMs in their inventory. Pakistan has the AMRAAM and if we end up purchasing an American plane, we will get the AMRAAM as well.

And if you want to talk about the qualitative edge, then the IAF Rafale (barring the under development F4 variant) is the most advanced Rafale variant of all Rafales currently in service. A fact confirmed by the Indian Air Force. Like all export Rafales, the only missile she cannot fire is the ASMP-A air launched nuclear missile. That is reserved for the French onlee.

And America has never had allies, but only poodles. We in India are seeing the benefits of the relationship i.e. regular CAATSA reminders.
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