VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Post Reply
ashthor
BRFite
Posts: 263
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 11:35

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ashthor »

Once the TEDBF starts arriving the M Rafale can be transferred to IAF 36+81=117
SidSoma
BRFite
Posts: 241
Joined: 16 Feb 2018 15:09

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by SidSoma »

ashthor wrote:Once the TEDBF starts arriving the M Rafale can be transferred to IAF 36+81=117
This will never happen. TEDBF numbers will be adjusted to work with Rafale M.

Noob Pooch: Between IN and IAF, has there ever been a case where assets were transferred from one service to another.?
Kersi
BRFite
Posts: 467
Joined: 31 May 2017 12:25

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Kersi »

SidSoma wrote:
ashthor wrote:Once the TEDBF starts arriving the M Rafale can be transferred to IAF 36+81=117
This will never happen. TEDBF numbers will be adjusted to work with Rafale M.

Noob Pooch: Between IN and IAF, has there ever been a case where assets were transferred from one service to another.?
When maritime reconnaissance was given over to IN from IAF, the MR Super Constellations L1049 were handed over to IN. After 1971 war probably in mid 1970s
KSingh
BRFite
Posts: 504
Joined: 16 Jun 2020 17:52

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:IF (huge if) IN is to order Rafales then it makes perfect sense to club this with another 2-3 squadrons for IAF, use economies of scale, get a good price and close the book forever on imported fighters for India
This is what is going to happen, assuming the Rafale M is ultimately chosen and the order is lumped along with an IAF order.

The IAF wants more Rafales, the Navy appears to have selected the Rafale Marine, the MoD prefers an assembly line to purchase any new fighters and the OEM wants a minimum 100 aircraft order to transfer any assembly line.

The only way to satisfy all the stakeholders above is to have the MRFA/MRCBF be the same.

There is no money for three separate programs i.e. 114 MRFA + 26/57 MRCBF + investment for turbofan development.

Lump it all together and award the contract to one OEM. Easier said than done, but it appears that is where the GOI is headed.
IF Rafale is selected for MRCBF then MRFA is even deader than it already is.

It still blows my mind that MRFA has been allowed to get this far considering all the benefits to just ordering more Rafales. Ordering any other type now would be bordering on traitorous behaviour.

GTG for more Rafales is the only way to go, looks like we will have to wait until after the 2024 elections though
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Kersi wrote:
SidSoma wrote:
This will never happen. TEDBF numbers will be adjusted to work with Rafale M.

Noob Pooch: Between IN and IAF, has there ever been a case where assets were transferred from one service to another.?
When maritime reconnaissance was given over to IN from IAF, the MR Super Constellations L1049 were handed over to IN. After 1971 war probably in mid 1970s
Resources - where possible - will be pooled together. Unlike the MiG-29s of the IAF and IN, the Rafale Marine is identical to her Air Force counterpart. Every weapon, every sensor and even the upgrades are the same across all Rafale variants.

That is how the French designed the aircraft from the get go. One aircraft to replace multiple types in French service. If need be, IN Rafales could easily be operated by IAF crew. No familiarization training required.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:IF Rafale is selected for MRCBF then MRFA is even deader than it already is.

It still blows my mind that MRFA has been allowed to get this far considering all the benefits to just ordering more Rafales. Ordering any other type now would be bordering on traitorous behaviour.

GTG for more Rafales is the only way to go, looks like we will have to wait until after the 2024 elections though
That is what this is KSingh - G2G deal.

Lump everything (additional Rafales for IAF + Rafales for Navy + engine contract for AMCA Mk2) into one G2G deal. It is the only way. Just recently the Air Chief made a statement that the IAF needs 4 - 5 squadrons (some reported it as 5 - 6) of the MRFA.

The Navy announcement is going to cause serious angst in the opposition and in the media. Get ready for all sorts of wild accusations i.e. NaMo is a shape shifter and a body snatcher (due to his RW Hindutva ideology). His tantric powers gives him the ability to spiritually enter another person's atma. He did that at Goa (when the Rafale M and F-18SH arrived for their trials). He alone changed the scoring marks for the aircraft -- all to help his poor friend Anil Ambani to manufacture the Rafale instead of HAL. NaMo stole jobs from the youth of Karnataka (where HAL is based) and gave it to Anil Ambani. Congress Ki Jai Ho!!

But jokes/sarcasm aside, such a G2G deal will be announced post 2024 elections, as you have indicated. Otherwise RaGa will have conniption fits during his election rallies. Saurav Jha had tweeted (and prophetically!) a few years back that France will become India's new Russia. From fighters to turbofans to pump jet propulsion (which the French have just offered to India), France has become India's strategic ally.
Avid
BRFite
Posts: 471
Joined: 21 Sep 2001 11:31
Location: Earth

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Avid »

If it is all combined into such a large number -- why not insist that the manufacturing be setup in India for the number with a private entity? Hold the private entity responsible for ToT and let them work it out with French partners?

Perhaps it will not be done that way because it makes way too much sense!
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Avid wrote:If it is all combined into such a large number -- why not insist that the manufacturing be setup in India for the number with a private entity? Hold the private entity responsible for ToT and let them work it out with French partners?

Perhaps it will not be done that way because it makes way too much sense!
There are plans to set up a second line in India which will eventually transition into a MROU (Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul & Upgrade) facility for Indian and International Rafale customers in the region. From the GOI's perspective, a parallel line assembling fighters ties into Make in India and Export to the World.

For Dassault, it is a win-win situation. Transition the line from Merignac, France to India. Any new orders will likely come from this line. There are rumours of Saudis planning a massive 100 to 200 Rafale order ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7625&start=2520#p2571822. But Dassault does require a minimum 100 aircraft order from India, to transition the line. This is why the MRCBF is so crucial. And the line in France will be used for SCAF (France's sixth generation fighter aircraft program).

For the IAF, it is a bonanza. Gwalior (or a similar base) could eventually become Rafale Fighter Town hosting not just a training base for IAF and IN pilots, but also a base for IAF and international air forces (France, Indonesia, Egypt, UAE, etc) that operate the Rafale to train together and learn from each other. Gwalior is also home to TACDE, India's Top Gun school.

But still too early to make any concrete conclusions. We have to wait for an official announcement from the MoD or Dassault.

As mentioned earlier ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7634&start=2840#p2569743
Right now, all eyes (especially Air HQ's) is on the MRCBF contest. 26 airframes will decide the future of MRFA + the indigenous turbofan. 26 airframes will also decide the future of India's geopolitical path. The Rafale M has to win the technical downselect, but that is easier said than done. The F-18SH is an excellent naval fighter. But the Rafale has a few aces up her sleeve ;)
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

Rafale mfg in Argenteuil site, sorry voice over only in French
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

It's no longer screwdriver giri if Rafales are manufactured in India instead of just putting together subassemblies. The digitalisation of design, mfg and QA seem to be pretty cutting edge at Dassault.

The Americans may still be a bit ahead given their huge volumes and budgets.

Does anyone know how does the mfg technologies for Tejas at HAL compare to what we see at Dassault in the video above, which is about 1 year old ie from 2021?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ramana »

The 90 Rafales put kabash on the 114 MRFA.
Also by making the order less than 100 there won't be any Dassault co-production and charges of scams etc. So it is a good decision for India.
Also, it takes schedule pressure on both MK2 and AMCA in case of technical issues.
Predictably CAS is now harping on engines from mk2 and AMCA even after knowing GE 414 are purchased.
He will make history.

SidSoma after TEDBF starts appearing the RafaleM will still be in IN control but deployed to islands as Jaguar Ms are.
I expect ORCA follow on once TEDBF is complete.
JTull
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3113
Joined: 18 Jul 2001 11:31

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by JTull »

ramana wrote: Predictably CAS is now harping on engines from mk2 and AMCA even after knowing GE 414 are purchased.
He will make history.
I don't understand this
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

From the official twitter account of the Indian Air Force (IAF). This is Serial # RB008, the first Rafale (twin seater) built for the IAF and the one with all the India Specific Enhancements (ISE).

https://twitter.com/IAF_MCC/status/1603 ... ytWZyr1ddw ----> FEET DRY!

'The Pack is Complete'

The last of the 36 IAF Rafales landed in India after a quick enroute sip from a UAE Air Force tanker. Shukran Jazeelan.

Image
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

Power projection exercise Shikra with Rafales and M2000 in Africa by Armée de l'Air et de l'espace. In collaboration with a private company Synapse which designed and conducted the exercises!
((In French)
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/RAFIndia_/status/15 ... R1WHH17Cog ---> Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) to commence the integration of Astra air-to-air missile and Smart Anti-Airfield Weapon (SAAW) on Dassault Rafale F3R fighter aircraft acquired by Indian Air Force.

https://twitter.com/RAFIndia_/status/15 ... R1WHH17Cog ---> In a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between BDL and Dassault Aviation during Defence Expo 2022 on Thursday, it is formally announced that integration of the indigenous systems is for both Indian Air Force and export customers of the Rafale aircraft.
https://twitter.com/NewsIADN/status/160 ... 4h-mwFf-lA ---> India is in talks with MBDA for the local production of SCALP cruise missiles. SCALP, also called Storm Shadow, is an Air-Launched Cruise Missile with a range of 250+ km. Currently IAF Rafales carry SCALP. It has plans to integrate SCALP with Tejas MK1A,MK2 and also AMCA.
KSingh
BRFite
Posts: 504
Joined: 16 Jun 2020 17:52

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:From the official twitter account of the Indian Air Force (IAF). This is Serial # RB008, the first Rafale (twin seater) built for the IAF and the one with all the India Specific Enhancements (ISE).

https://twitter.com/IAF_MCC/status/1603 ... ytWZyr1ddw ----> FEET DRY!

'The Pack is Complete'

The last of the 36 IAF Rafales landed in India after a quick enroute sip from a UAE Air Force tanker. Shukran Jazeelan.
Incredibly silly to allow inductions to stop at 36 but alas foreword thinking is not Indian mil’s strongpoint. Hopefully the next batch is ordered in the next 2 years but even then it’ll be a 5 year wait between the 36th and 37th Rafale for IAF, just crazy
Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 20772
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Karan M »

The Tejas Mk2, Mk1A induction plus Su-30 upgrade are bigger priorities than bankrupting the budget for another 36 Rafale. At current capex, ie 54K crores, even assuming 30% are for precommiitted liabilities, the IAF can go ahead and order all three of the above plus C-295, Netra Mk2, NGARM, Astra from 2024 onwards, as they come in, there will be periods of overlap too. If the 30% is available, then it can even add QRSAM, CIWS and a desi S-400 type system, repeat order for the Pechora upgrade (4 squadrons). However, if it adds 36 more Rafale, a lot of the above go until and unless GOI adds more funds. It's anyday more sensible to do the above first.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

French press saying Rafale M deal could be signed when Macron visits India in March.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Cyrano wrote:French press saying Rafale M deal could be signed when Macron visits India in March.
The Navy has yet to formally announce a winner. Perhaps they may do it this month. To sign any deal with no announcement from the Indian Navy - in an election year - is a sure fire recipe for disaster. The opposition will be up in arms.

But if any deal is signed this year, it would likely feature additional Rafales for the IAF. How much that would be remains to be seen, but Air HQ will be definitely pushing for it. It is their only hope to get phoren MRFAs in the near future.

The 114 MRFA contest is not going anywhere.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Cyrano wrote:French press saying Rafale M deal could be signed when Macron visits India in March.
After IAF, now Indian Navy to get Rafale fighter jets
https://www.firstpost.com/world/after-i ... 28432.html
04 Jan 2023

Reading the above article, it appears that the Rafale M pulled the rug from right under the F-18SH.

But apart from news articles stating this, there has been no statement from the Indian Navy over the MRCBF decision.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

The French newspaper - La Tribune - appears to be one who broke the story of a possible Rafale M contract in March 2023, during President Macron's visit. But the article below also made a surprising error. They posted a picture of a Rafale M on the deck of an aircraft carrier and claimed it to be a Rafale M appearing to land on INS Vikrant :) Click on the link below.

The article is stating that the Indian Navy will announce its decision in March 2023. So it answers that question!

India: the Rafale Marine close to embarking on the aircraft carrier INS Vikrant
https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-fi ... 45736.html
04 Jan 2023
KSingh
BRFite
Posts: 504
Joined: 16 Jun 2020 17:52

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by KSingh »

Cyrano wrote:French press saying Rafale M deal could be signed when Macron visits India in March.
For once can GoI/MoD show some dynamism and go for an off the shelf package deal? Rafales for IN, IAF and 3-4 A330 MRTT (leased if necessary) and knock multiple birds out with 1 stone


Anyway I feel like this side of the general election such a deal would be almost unthinkable
Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 1985
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Atmavik »

KSingh wrote:
Cyrano wrote:French press saying Rafale M deal could be signed when Macron visits India in March.
For once can GoI/MoD show some dynamism and go for an off the shelf package deal? Rafales for IN, IAF and 3-4 A330 MRTT (leased if necessary) and knock multiple birds out with 1 stone


Anyway I feel like this side of the general election such a deal would be almost unthinkable

I think we should just make a package deal for IN & IAF + engine tech if France is willing or get Airbus to setup manufacturing in India our civilian market is going to be huge
V_Raman
BRFite
Posts: 1379
Joined: 04 Sep 2008 22:25

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by V_Raman »

I dont think India is ready for civilian aircraft manufacturing in the league of boeing 737 like aircraft. If they are - even Russia has many options. I really thought India would buy Embraer by settting up some kind of sovereign wealth fund - but that never happened :(
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

The Rafale M and F18SH being very competent and proven fighters, there will be a thin margin of difference between the two. Ideally, Indian Navy's finally evaluation SHOULD NOT be made public. If both fighters have qualified for the essential requirements of IN which I assume they would, then the GoI should get into commercial and contractual negotiations with BOTH to align those terms as closely as possible between the two ie play off one against the other to extract the best possible price and terms. And after each has put in their best and final offer, select and announce the winner.

This is standard procurement process in any big mature firm in the private sector. If the Navy's top select is lets say Rafale and this is announced, then where is the incentive for Dassault/France to offer the best possible terms? They will play hard ball. Suppose those negotiations fail and GoI goes to the next best i.e. SH, then they will already know that they are the only option left and they too will play hardball.

For a fighter to be successful in its intended operational role, not just technical parameters but a host of other factors have to come together, and stay that way reliably for decades. This includes armaments, integration with other munitions we already have, interop with other aircraft in our inventory for better mission planning and execution, be able to integrate into a network centric approach à l'indienne, maintenance, spares, MRO, upgrades, lifecycle support etc.

The biggest worry I have with US maal is their propensity to influence and control how their sold wares will be used, where, when and against whom. While this is a risk we can live with for some transport, surveillance a/c and attack helis, when it comes to naval fighter a/c which means not just the a/c but the carrier and the carrier battle group - ALL could be potentially affected is a risk one simply cant ignore. On this aspect alone, we have a lot more comfort with the French who have a sell and forget approach than with the Amreekis who see weapons sales as a business but also as a tool for extending their sphere of influence. Any contract with Amreekis is only relevant in good times.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Cyrano-ji, fantastic post. I especially love the last paragraph :D :mrgreen:

It is my understanding that the DPP (Defence Procurement Policy) does not permit negotiations with multiple vendors. There is L1 and everyone else is set aside. The MoD sets up a PNC (Price Negotiating Committee) and consists of babus and in this instance, naval officers from the aviation branch. They will negotiate with the winner of the MRCBF i.e. Dassault or Boeing.

It is a great idea, but if the loser of the MRCBF contest feels that there is no real tangible value in continuing negotiations, then they will terminate contact. The only way to go to L2 is if negotiations with L1 are completely broken down. But even at the stage, I believe the contest is then reset and everything starts again.

It is an archaic system, but that is the system.

For Dassault it is a win-win situation (provided they win the MRCBF), but India too can negotiate favourable terms from Dassault.

* Transfer the production to line to eventually transition towards a MROU facility. To me, the latter is the most interesting aspect. No need to send any aircraft outside the country and conduct all MROU functions in-house.
* One aircraft across multiple services will result in lower overall cost of ownership. Imagine operating one MMRCA fleet (36 Rafales), one MRCBF fleet (26 F-18SHs) and one MRFA fleet (still to be chosen). That is a nightmare scenario best avoided by India.
* Integration of Indian weaponry aboard Rafale as per the recent MoU between BDL and MBDA. No need to purchase boutique French weaponry (i.e. Meteor), when the desi kit (follow-on Astra variants) can do the same thing for cheaper. Hopefully in the future, can integrate BrahMos-NG.
* A joint venture is being looked at for a 110kN turbofan for AMCA. That committee is being headed by Dr Kota Harinarayana. GE, Rolls Royce and Safran are all interested in joining this program, as the pay off for them is huge. But India will have to invest billions into such a JV. Offset from a Rafale deal would be a good way to mitigate a good portion of the cost.

I am sure Air HQ would breathe a huge sigh of relief, if the AMCA's 110kN turbofan is not US in origin.
JTull
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3113
Joined: 18 Jul 2001 11:31

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by JTull »

Rakesh wrote:Cyrano-ji, fantastic post. I especially love the last paragraph :D :mrgreen:

It is my understanding that the DPP (Defence Procurement Policy) does not permit negotiations with multiple vendors. There is L1 and everyone else is set aside. The MoD sets up a PNC (Price Negotiating Committee) and consists of babus and in this instance, naval officers from the aviation branch. They will negotiate with the winner of the MRCBF i.e. Dassault or Boeing.

It is a great idea, but if the loser of the MRCBF contest feels that there is no real tangible value in continuing negotiations, then they will terminate contact. The only way to go to L2 is if negotiations with L1 are completely broken down. But even at the stage, I believe the contest is then reset and everything starts again.

It is an archaic system, but that is the system.
IN has only completed technical evaluation. L1 procedure is not applicable here as RFQ hasn't taken place.

Prolonged negotiations aren't likely. Longer the delay, there is
...risk of IN dropping the process completely in favour of TEDBF (and LCA-Navy).
...risk of change in favourable dispensation (Indian govt)
...risk of IAF balking for its MRCF order
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

Thanks Rakesh garu, coming from you 8)
IN has only completed technical evaluation. L1 procedure is not applicable here as RFQ hasn't taken place.
If this is indeed the case, then GoI has every chance to playoff vendors against each other. Free market after all! :twisted:
Such a process however, needs extensive preparation, high degree of secrecy/confidentiality maintained, very mature negotiators who work as a team, and needs a lot of bandwidth. Nothing _this_ govt cannot put together given the stakes. If late Shri Parrikar were around, we could have broth easy. Not sure how the current RM Shri RS handles such things (or not!).
KSingh
BRFite
Posts: 504
Joined: 16 Jun 2020 17:52

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:Cyrano-ji, fantastic post. I especially love the last paragraph :D :mrgreen:

It is my understanding that the DPP (Defence Procurement Policy) does not permit negotiations with multiple vendors. There is L1 and everyone else is set aside. The MoD sets up a PNC (Price Negotiating Committee) and consists of babus and in this instance, naval officers from the aviation branch. They will negotiate with the winner of the MRCBF i.e. Dassault or Boeing.

It is a great idea, but if the loser of the MRCBF contest feels that there is no real tangible value in continuing negotiations, then they will terminate contact. The only way to go to L2 is if negotiations with L1 are completely broken down. But even at the stage, I believe the contest is then reset and everything starts again.

It is an archaic system, but that is the system.

For Dassault it is a win-win situation (provided they win the MRCBF), but India too can negotiate favourable terms from Dassault.

* Transfer the production to line to eventually transition towards a MROU facility. To me, the latter is the most interesting aspect. No need to send any aircraft outside the country and conduct all MROU functions in-house.
* One aircraft across multiple services will result in lower overall cost of ownership. Imagine operating one MMRCA fleet (36 Rafales), one MRCBF fleet (26 F-18SHs) and one MRFA fleet (still to be chosen). That is a nightmare scenario best avoided by India.
* Integration of Indian weaponry aboard Rafale as per the recent MoU between BDL and MBDA. No need to purchase boutique French weaponry (i.e. Meteor), when the desi kit (follow-on Astra variants) can do the same thing for cheaper. Hopefully in the future, can integrate BrahMos-NG.
* A joint venture is being looked at for a 110kN turbofan for AMCA. That committee is being headed by Dr Kota Harinarayana. GE, Rolls Royce and Safran are all interested in joining this program, as the pay off for them is huge. But India will have to invest billions into such a JV. Offset from a Rafale deal would be a good way to mitigate a good portion of the cost.

I am sure Air HQ would breathe a huge sigh of relief, if the AMCA's 110kN turbofan is not US in origin.
Setup a local assembly line for ~26 units? It’s not going to happen and I’m pretty sure Dassualt is positioning the DRAL facilities for long term MRO activities although the Rafale is quite a different beast to most fighters where in most of the servicing can’t be done at a squadron level itself and doesn’t need the same kind of intrusive specialist MRO activities over its life.


IF (still a huge if) MRCBF is awarded to Rafale then the MRFA is surely never even attempted (RFP won’t be issued) and within 2-3 years the IAF will be ordering more off the shelf

I really really hope all of the recent strategic dialogue going on between india and France are beyond just a single deal and laying out a very broad set of aggrements (the kind india and Russia used to) so in exchange for Rafales for IN and IAF (maybe some MRTT too) there will be help with SS(B)N, the 110-125KN JV (Safran is already forming a JV for IMRH engines afaik) etc.


Safe to say india is quickly ditching the Russians for the French and keeping the long tradition of maintaining the US at an arms length.
titash
BRFite
Posts: 606
Joined: 26 Aug 2011 18:44

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by titash »

KSingh wrote: Setup a local assembly line for ~26 units? It’s not going to happen and I’m pretty sure Dassualt is positioning the DRAL facilities for long term MRO activities although the Rafale is quite a different beast to most fighters where in most of the servicing can’t be done at a squadron level itself and doesn’t need the same kind of intrusive specialist MRO activities over its life.


IF (still a huge if) MRCBF is awarded to Rafale then the MRFA is surely never even attempted (RFP won’t be issued) and within 2-3 years the IAF will be ordering more off the shelf

I really really hope all of the recent strategic dialogue going on between india and France are beyond just a single deal and laying out a very broad set of aggrements (the kind india and Russia used to) so in exchange for Rafales for IN and IAF (maybe some MRTT too) there will be help with SS(B)N, the 110-125KN JV (Safran is already forming a JV for IMRH engines afaik) etc.


Safe to say india is quickly ditching the Russians for the French and keeping the long tradition of maintaining the US at an arms length.
There is no indication that India is ditching the Russians

In fact, there is no reason to ditch the Russians because:

1. They do not share borders with us
2. They are not an Islamic country
3. They do not have a history of screwing us or undermining our interests
4. They do not have a history of slaughtering or converting Hindus via fire/sword/NGO
5. They are rational players who understand that we are a big market, and that we do not seek to threaten them
-----------------
6. They are the world's foremost nuclear weapons and nuclear power state
7. They are a land, water, coal, oil, gas, titanium, and uranium powerhouse
8. They have been willing to sell weapons that NO ONE ELSE has (e.g. supersonic MiG-21s and Foxtrot submarines in the 60s, Styx anti-ship missiles in 70s, INS Chakra lease in the 80s, ISRO cryogenic engines in 90s, customized Su30MKI twin engine heavy fighters in 00s, S-400 complexes at present)
9. They have been willing to share technology and sub-components that NO ONE ELSE has (e.g. 50-50 workshare on BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, active radar seekers for Astra AAM, engines for Nirbhay cruise missiles, consultancy on Arihant's nuclear propulsion & safety training)
10. They are an MIC R&D + manufacturing powerhouse that can produce and sell the full spectrum of systems & munitions at scale and at reasonable cost

Conversely:
1. The Americans won't sell, or want end-user-monitoring, and will eventually sanction you
2. The French will charge an arm and a leg
3. The Germans will give you long lectures about human rights (but will willingly sell to China --> Pak)
4. The UK is overtly dependent on the Americans veto (e.g. SeaKing sanctions) and no longer makes the full spectrum of 100% indigenous products like Hunter/Vampire/Hawk (even the Jaguar was Anglo-French)
5. The Israelis don't make complete systems anyways except missile systems
6. We won't buy Chinese
KSingh
BRFite
Posts: 504
Joined: 16 Jun 2020 17:52

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by KSingh »

titash wrote:There is no indication that India is ditching the Russians

In fact, there is no reason to ditch the Russians because:

1. They do not share borders with us
2. They are not an Islamic country
3. They do not have a history of screwing us or undermining our interests
4. They do not have a history of slaughtering or converting Hindus via fire/sword/NGO
5. They are rational players who understand that we are a big market, and that we do not seek to threaten them
-----------------
6. They are the world's foremost nuclear weapons and nuclear power state
7. They are a land, water, coal, oil, gas, titanium, and uranium powerhouse
8. They have been willing to sell weapons that NO ONE ELSE has (e.g. supersonic MiG-21s and Foxtrot submarines in the 60s, Styx anti-ship missiles in 70s, INS Chakra lease in the 80s, ISRO cryogenic engines in 90s, customized Su30MKI twin engine heavy fighters in 00s, S-400 complexes at present)
9. They have been willing to share technology and sub-components that NO ONE ELSE has (e.g. 50-50 workshare on BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, active radar seekers for Astra AAM, engines for Nirbhay cruise missiles, consultancy on Arihant's nuclear propulsion & safety training)
10. They are an MIC R&D + manufacturing powerhouse that can produce and sell the full spectrum of systems & munitions at scale and at reasonable cost

Conversely:
1. The Americans won't sell, or want end-user-monitoring, and will eventually sanction you
2. The French will charge an arm and a leg
3. The Germans will give you long lectures about human rights (but will willingly sell to China --> Pak)
4. The UK is overtly dependent on the Americans veto (e.g. SeaKing sanctions) and no longer makes the full spectrum of 100% indigenous products like Hunter/Vampire/Hawk (even the Jaguar was Anglo-French)
5. The Israelis don't make complete systems anyways except missile systems
6. We won't buy Chinese
The Russians have been coasting off of USSR era developments ever since the latter collapsed, they are not at the bleeding edge in most tech any longer and don’t have the scale either. Their decline is certain and the trend is only in one direction

The writing has been on the wall between india and Russia in terms of defence ties for a while now

MTA
PAK-FA/FGFA
AK-203
Vikaramaditya/29K

All have left a bitter taste and since india started conducting open level playing field tenders the Russians haven’t won a single contest

Apache vs Mi-28
CH-47F vs Mi-26T2
A330 vs IL-78 (twice)
Rafale vs Mig-35
FENNEC vs KA-226


The French are a stable high tech country that will maintain their position indefinitely and it’s not a coincidence that the breadth and depth of strategic cooperation is increasing with every passing year with the French; AWACS(I), NETRA, DRDO SIGINT, MMMA will all be based on Airbus platforms and the adoption to the Rafale will only further accelerate this especially as Indian arms will be integrated on it. If the 110-125 KN JV goes to France this only cements this more

With an increasingly more wayward and isolated Russia that has to rely more and more on the Chinese the Russians are set to play an ever less relevant role in Indian strategic affairs
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

The French are a stable high tech country that will maintain their position indefinitely
After the recent revelations by ex Fr Prez Hollande about the Minsk accords, I'm no longer sure of even that.

The finger that India gave to the west regarding Russian oil purchases won't be forgotten anytime soon. Rafale or SH, the west could still take our money and sanction India, delay deliveries, or deliberately sell us a dud. Just out of sheer malice because India trods it's own course. It will take one good squeeze from Washington to make any French Prez fold over.

But right now we don't have a choice. If anyone in the forces/mod/cabinet/Modi is listening, this has to be the LAST big ticket hitech purchase from the west.

Good or bad from Russia depends on what they had a need and money to invest in, without access to the printing press. Look at Titash's list and Singh's counter examples. There is a reason things have fallen into each bucket. If you replay what's been happening since Feb24, it will become clear that had Russia not chosen to invest and maintain miltech investments and production capacity in the areas it did (strategic lifesavers vs shiny export oriented doodads), it would have been torn into pieces by now.

Bottom line India can survive without Rafale Ms, but cannot without Arihants.

Sorry for the OT. We can continue in UkrGeo thread if you wish.
vimal
BRFite
Posts: 1902
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by vimal »

^^ I really hope we stop replacing Russi maal with Indian one. A developing country thinking about global aspirations and yet importing billions of $ of weapons is an oxymoron.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

JTull wrote: IN has only completed technical evaluation. L1 procedure is not applicable here as RFQ hasn't taken place.

Prolonged negotiations aren't likely. Longer the delay, there is
...risk of IN dropping the process completely in favour of TEDBF (and LCA-Navy).
...risk of change in favourable dispensation (Indian govt)
...risk of IAF balking for its MRCF order
MRCBF is a G2G deal, unlike the MMRCA contest. Once the technical winner is down selected, why would the Navy go in for the aircraft that came in at second place?

The navy had estimated around US $12 - $13 billion a few years back (2018 era), when the contest was at 57 aircraft. They are well aware of what 26 MRCBF will cost and what the cost for that will be. The selection of the Rafale - from a cost perspective - is a no-brainer for the Navy, as much of the investment made (i.e. ISE upgrades) in the IAF Rafale fleet will find their way into the IN Rafale fleet. Obviously this is assuming that the Navy has actually selected the Rafale M.

BTW, the French NSA is in India and just met his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval. Discussions over defence cooperation was on the agenda. Recently the French Defence Minister - Sébastien Lecornu - had visited India and he reiterated that a Rafale assembly line can happen, provided there is a minimum 100 aircraft order.

As you have stated, prolonged negotiations are unlikely. However, informal discussions have been occurring over the years (post the first Rafale contract signed in Sept 2016). It had taken a temporary hiatus with the fake Rafale scandal, but appears to have gotten going again with the two back-to-back Supreme Court verdicts for the Govt. While I am not entertaining rumours, there are numbers being quoted as high as 140 airframes (114 + 26). That will not see the light of day, IMVHO.

A more realistic number would be around 100 (26 MRCBF + 74 MRFA) airframes, to get an assembly line open in India. I would be surprised if the IAF did not jump on that bandwagon. The 114 MRFA contest is going nowhere and Air HQ is acutely aware of that. Their best bet lies in additional Rafales. Barring the F-15EX, no other MRFA is a game changer over the Rafale. The Rafale is what Air HQ actually wants.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

Make in India is a must for a big order since Dassault order book is full, ramping up skills across technical trades takes years, strikes and labour unrest can happen anytime at Dassault or any of its suppliers.

Plus it will help partially address the geopolitical risks.

To be fair Dassault & Fr Govt & FrAF left no stone unturned to deliver the first 36 on the dot despite covid era.
Last edited by Cyrano on 06 Jan 2023 08:06, edited 1 time in total.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:Setup a local assembly line for ~26 units? It’s not going to happen and I’m pretty sure Dassualt is positioning the DRAL facilities for long term MRO activities although the Rafale is quite a different beast to most fighters where in most of the servicing can’t be done at a squadron level itself and doesn’t need the same kind of intrusive specialist MRO activities over its life.
No OEM will transfer a line for 26 airframes. Any assembly line will require a minimum 100 aircraft order, as recently reiterated for the nth time by the French Defence Minister in Dec 2022. So additional Rafales for the IAF will be lumped along with it. This is the best all around scenario for everyone involved. But it remains to be seen how this is going to play out. The MRFA will not come.
KSingh wrote:IF (still a huge if) MRCBF is awarded to Rafale then the MRFA is surely never even attempted (RFP won’t be issued) and within 2-3 years the IAF will be ordering more off the shelf
To date, there has been no announcement from the Navy that the Rafale M is indeed the winner. However Boeing was whining about the arrestor gear on the Vikrant, towards the latter half of 2022. I found that whining surprising, because Boeing was going to town about the F-18SH being fully compliant on the Vikrant and even the Vikramaditya. What is equally surprising is the total silence from Boeing over all these news articles that have been popping up since Dec 2022 about the Rafale M winning the MRCBF contest. First it was the Indian media who stated that the Rafale M won over the F-18SH and now even the French media are making the claim.
KSingh wrote:I really really hope all of the recent strategic dialogue going on between india and France are beyond just a single deal and laying out a very broad set of aggrements (the kind india and Russia used to) so in exchange for Rafales for IN and IAF (maybe some MRTT too) there will be help with SS(B)N, the 110-125KN JV (Safran is already forming a JV for IMRH engines afaik) etc.
I believe the ongoing strategic dialogue between India and France is revolving around additional Rafales + JV for turbofan + naval cooperation (pump jet propulsion).

Only time will tell if these assumptions are true.
KSingh wrote:Safe to say india is quickly ditching the Russians for the French and keeping the long tradition of maintaining the US at an arms length.
I don't know about ditching Russia, but keeping the US at an arms length is a good move for India. Getting into bed with the Americans is a bad idea. Deeply unreliable. Best to keep the relationship as platonic and transactional as possible.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Cyrano wrote:Make in India is a must for a big order since Dassault order book is full, ramping up skills across technical trades takes years, strikes and labour unrest can happen anytime at Dassault or any of its suppliers.

Plus it will help partially address the geopolitical risks.
Amen to that
Cyrano wrote:To be fair Dassault & Fr Govt & FrAF left no stone unturned to deliver the first 36 on the dot despite covid era.
And it was not done purely out of the goodwill of the above parties.

The French know how to butter their bread quite well.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

Agree. The whole world considers IAF as a very very competent and demanding force, with certain unique mission envelopes and climatic conditions most cannot operate in. So IAF selecting Rafale is a coveted thappa like the Rapunzels vouching for parachute naariyal tel. Can't get any better.

After IAF select Rafale's prospects improved significantly. That's why on time delivery of 36 leading to a repeat order is a strong motivation for Fr/Dassault. It also happened to be galwan time.

Conversely IAF going with the SH now will have its adverse effect.

Like I said before, there is lot of negotiation leverage for goi in the current situation esp with euro tanking wrt USD and energy crisis.

We can even strike a Rafale for "India refined diesel / LNG from Russian crude/LNG at fixed price under the current oil price cap at say $59.99 for the next 10 yrs" type of secret govt to govt deal if we are creative and daring enough. Will surely cover the numbers we dream of here !!
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5462
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/entrepri ... 50326.html

Please use your browser translate.
Rafale production drops to 11/year despite numerous orders...
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:I really really hope all of the recent strategic dialogue going on between india and France are beyond just a single deal and laying out a very broad set of aggrements (the kind india and Russia used to) so in exchange for Rafales for IN and IAF (maybe some MRTT too) there will be help with SS(B)N, the 110-125KN JV (Safran is already forming a JV for IMRH engines afaik) etc.
I believe the ongoing strategic dialogue between India and France is revolving around additional Rafales + JV for turbofan + naval cooperation (pump jet propulsion).

Only time will tell if these assumptions are true.
India, France Discuss Security, Stability in Indo-Pacific During Strategic Dialogue
https://www.statecraft.co.in/article/in ... c-dialogue
06 Jan 2023

India, France Vow Greater Defence & Security Cooperation, Rafale M Gets A Push
https://news.abplive.com/news/india/ind ... -m-1573942
05 Jan 2023

I very much doubt the 100% figure below, but cooperation on engine technology (110kN for AMCA) is very much on the menu....

https://twitter.com/DesiEscobar07/statu ... s7ldL_DF7w ---> 100 percent transfer of technology for manufacturing of aircraft engines to power twin engine fighter and aggressive muscle flexing of the PLA at LAC was discussed between NSA Doval and Bonne.
Post Reply