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Russia is again offering the SU-57 (which has now entered serial production) to India. With the Rafale deal apparently happening for real this time, does that mean there's no chance IAF will be interested in the SU-57? I'm not claiming the SU-57 is better or even equal to the Rafale, but it costs only a fraction of what the Rafale costs.
Kanan,
SU-57 will not be accepted without Russia willing to make changes IAF wants. IAF imposes standards on HAL/ADA/DRDO about time Sukhoi is served same medicine. The sad thing about Su-57 is its neither at par or around the level of likes of F-35/22 in stealth nor anywhere near Rafale F4/F-35 in avionics, sensor fusion & NCW.
Russia does not have money to build that kind of system and cannot do without free flow of funds from a country like India or China. Till Russia does not come to term with their new reality where they have to really part with some critical tech to a participating partner and also work to achieve the standards demanded by them, Su-57 will be no where close to 5th and 6th Gen jets being designed in Europe and America.
Better for India will be to invest in AMCA and UCAV from local industry and tie up with France/Israel for certain radar/avionics areas where we are lagging behind.
I understand the IAF's unwillingness to buy the SU-57. It's unproven and it's claimed capabilities are dubious at best. But why not just buy something proven but cost effective? Why not build more SU-30MKI and just keep upgrading their sensors, avionics and weapons as new tech becomes available? Is the SU-30MKI really so bad the IAF just wants to abandon the platform entirely? If that is so, why did we build so many of them?
If SU-30MKI is garbage why not just buy additional Mirage-2000's and upgrade them? I know people have been asking this for years, but seriously why not? The Mirage-2000 has served the IAF with distinction, and as we saw at Kargil and Balakot, the capability to conduct high-altitude or standoff strikes is more useful than being good in a dog fight. Besides, we've got lots of air superiority fighters to protect the Mirage-2000 in combat. So why do we need Rafale?
One of the problems I have with an ultra-expensive aircraft like the Rafale is this: at $250 million apiece, this plane will probably never see combat. Who's willing to risk losing such a monumentally expensive machine? Unless we're only buying them as a bluff to our enemies.
The real cost of the Rafale is probably half that amount (likely in the $100-$125 MM range). The deal covers both fixed and non-recurring cost which includes cost of customization, weapons system, 5-years of PBL and support, training and air-base modernizations. Much of that cost would not change if the IAF ordered or received 50 more aircraft. Some of the cost (like customization) wouldn’t change if the IAF ordered 100 additional aircraft. So the real question should be if the IAF should invest in a highly capable Medium sized Multi-Role aircraft with a recurring unit cost of around $110 Million when the heavy MKI is available for around $70 MM from HAL (IIRC). I think the this is worth it provided the MOD/IAF makes full use of the “sunk” fixed cost and orders 36-50 more aircraft. The Mirage-2000 has served the IAF well, and it was probably the most expensive single engine MR fighter (of its class) when it was purchased given low volume production and expensive weapons (also due to low volume of production). Despite of all that, it has featured front and center during numerous combat operations over the last many years. I guess it was not “too expensive to use in combat” as your logic would dictate. The remaining $3-4 Billion in fixed/customization cost, though part of the opportunity cost analysis can be attributed to obtaining fleet diversity and fielding a more optimized medium sized 4+ platform for the IAF. Things like the Meteor, AESA radar, a digital AESA based EW suite and long range A2G cruise missile capability etc. They really need to end the MMRCA 2.0 and order 36-50 more Rafale’s.
How about this, get 3 sq of Rafale (54 planes) and get 50% further offset on the line that makes these planes almost self maintainable in India and some critical tech that MWF/LCA will need (assuming that engine tech is already part of original 36). A good thing perhaps will be some seeker tech.
Then get additional 54 used M2000 for free but pay them additional ($30 Mil) upgradation cost to bring them to current IAF standards. The upgrade can happen at France (against at HAL - where it will be costlier and lengthy and we have anyway already gotten the tech from the first upgradation deal). These 108 planes (6 sq) can at least cover Mig 21/27 retirement. Get few more used/second hand M29. Then only gap to be filled would be LCA (or entry level aircraft), Jag and SU30MKI upgrades and maybe in another 10 years, a plane that can shoot down whatever the best the Chinese have (a not so good copy of a 5th gen fighter).
brar_w wrote:The real cost of the Rafale is probably half that amount (likely in the $100-$125 MM range). The deal covers both fixed and non-recurring cost which includes cost of customization, weapons system, 5-years of PBL and support, training and air-base modernizations. Much of that cost would not change if the IAF ordered or received 50 more aircraft. Some of the cost (like customization) wouldn’t change if the IAF ordered 100 additional aircraft. So the real question should be if the IAF should invest in a highly capable Medium sized Multi-Role aircraft with a recurring unit cost of around $110 Million when the heavy MKI is available for around $70 MM from HAL (IIRC). I think the this is worth it provided the MOD/IAF makes full use of the “sunk” fixed cost and orders 36-50 more aircraft. The Mirage-2000 has served the IAF well, and it was probably the most expensive single engine MR fighter (of its class) when it was purchased given low volume production and expensive weapons (also due to low volume of production). Despite of all that, it has featured front and center during numerous combat operations over the last many years. I guess it was not “too expensive to use in combat” as your logic would dictate. The remaining $3-4 Billion in fixed/customization cost, though part of the opportunity cost analysis can be attributed to obtaining fleet diversity and fielding a more optimized medium sized 4+ platform for the IAF. Things like the Meteor, AESA radar, a digital AESA based EW suite and long range A2G cruise missile capability etc. They really need to end the MMRCA 2.0 and order 36-50 more Rafale’s.
Well said Brar, I second Cybaru. Yes even USAF/USN is investing in F-15EX and Super Hornet Block 3 fighters beefed up with capbilities similar to what you have mentioned.
Second IAF also has to build more on NCW where these fighters become individual nodes and if possible invest in Stand off/Escort jammers or Growler type aircrafts. Because next generation SAM system will be complex and Stealth aspects of 5th generation will be compromised to certain extent. We need to focus on complex jamming equipment. Also, more AWACS and JSTAR type aircrafts won't be a bad idea.
The cost & time to upgrade fighters is almost 1/2 to 3/4th to getting a new build from an established line. Adding upto 1 squadron of each of the following (M2k, M29, MKI) from independent lines helps us get 60 odd fighters in 2 years time allowing us to retire 3-4 squadrons reaching EOL. Adding 1/2 more LCA MK1 and Mk1A sqd helps reduce costs and gives us great units for another 30-40 years.
Adding more Rafale to the tune of 54-60 is a great idea. This is our MMRCA. That's it, nothing else required. Adding in 100 extra Raffies + 57 more navy will bankrupt us.
Pushing for an extra LCA line makes a lot more sense! We will need the MWF to come with speed as well when it is ready. Retooling the existing lines to add two more to each and getting the existing lines to 20/25 (claimed by HAL) also helps.
Sumeet wrote:
Well said Brar, I second Cybaru. Yes even USAF/USN is investing in F-15EX and Super Hornet Block 3 fighters beefed up with capbilities similar to what you have mentioned.
^^^ Are there 54 M2000 air frames available to us? Only countries flying them and are a possible source are Qatar and Taiwan. UAE and France have never made an offer to sell their old stock to us.
So I managed to get my hands on the latest edition of Air International. The edition is June 2019. I never buy the magazine for two main reasons - high cost and not much info that one cannot get off the web. This edition blew me away so much, that I bought it.
They have a 24 page special on the Rafale + Part 2 (of a three part series) on the BAe Hawk + the Gripen E. Since this is the Rafale thread, I will talk about the Rafale. I will talk about Gripen E in the MMRCA thread. I am not going to copy everything verbatim, due to copyright laws. So I will be para-phrasing. And I am still reading much of it myself. Some highlights that I have read to date (less than 2 hours since I got the magazine in my hands!) that is worth mentioning.
1) Meteor can switch from one target to another one (during flight), if the second target becomes more threatening that the first one. The RBE2 AESA radar has excellent range and can monitor the Meteor's path at long ranges and can do target reallocation while the missile is in flight. And this was flight tested and is not just some computer simulation.
2) The upcoming F4 variant (qualified in 2022) of the Rafale will have complete interoperability with the F-35. The article refers to larger data link networks and CONTACT software radios, but does not delve into further details. Obviously. Just like in the F3 variant, the F4 variant will have sub-variants like F4.1 (which will includes a new generation, helmet-mounted display). IAF Rafales (F3R variant) come with an Israeli helmet mounted display I believe. F4.1 will have larger touchscreen digital lateral displays to show colour TALIOS (Targeting Long-range Identification Optronic System) imagery.
3) Huge improvements to Spectra in the F4.1 variant. The article talks about threats being identified rapidly in 3D, new jamming waveforms and the updated Spectra suite will have an improved ability to detect hostile emitters operating in very high wavebands.
4) The F4.1 variant will feature an updated IRST system in the Rafale's FSO (Front Sector Optronics) system. This new IRST will also be able to detect stealth targets. My comment - how effective that detection will be and at what level of stealth remains to be seen.
5) Updates to the RBE2 radar are also on the cards as part of the F4.1 variant. It will include a ground-moving target indicator (GMTI) mode. A sharper synthetic aperture radar (SAR) mode will also be available for radar mapping at stand-off ranges, in all weather. There will also be improvements to the IFF (If Friend or Foe) system
6) The M version of the The F4.1 variant will also include a new carrier landing aid and will be similar to the MAGIC CARPET system on the US Navy's F-18E/F carrier fighter. The main point of this upgrade is to increase interoperability with US Navy's carriers. Understandable, considering that the French Navy only has one carrier.
7) The F4.1 variant will have a heavier and more powerful air-to-ground weapon, the HAMMER 1000. It will replace the GBU-24 Paveway III, will have excellent accuracy in all weather and will have a rocket motor. While the power and penetration capability will be the same, the range will be longer. The C variant of the Rafale will be able to carry the HAMMER 1000 in the centreline pylon and as well as the wings. The M variant will carry the system only in the centreline pylon, due to bring-back weight restrictions when landing back on the carrier.
8] The F4.1 variant will feature an updated SCALP cruise missile and an upgraded ASMP-A (nuclear warhead) missile. Details of the latter upgrade is classified because of its nuclear mission.
9) The F4.2 variant is expected to arrive in 2024. The main goal for this upgrade is even greater network-enabled warfare and interconnectivity. A secure military version of a civilian router will be installed on each aircraft and will be cyber-proofed against cyber-attack. The article talks more about this and it is best you get your hands on the magazine and read it yourself. Due to the cost involved, not all Rafales will undergo the F4.2 upgrade. Each aircraft - based on airframe age - will have to be analyzed to see if it is worth upgrading or not. However all aircraft in the fifth production tranche will have the complete F4.2 suite and maybe even more advanced systems.
10) This one will impress you. Future variants of the Rafale will feature a defensive system which consists of a powered payload (i.e. a mini-UAV) which will be launched from one of the chaff's dispensers and will stand in between the threat and the Rafale it is protecting. At the same time, the UAV will track and transmit the SAM radar which is tracking the Rafale, saturate the system and force it to malfunction. I have no clue how it plans to do this, but is what the article says. Initial service is planned for 2025.
11) MICA-NG (New Generation) is coming in 2026 and will complement (and eventually) replace the MICA currently in service. Key point to note, is that the missile have an AESA-type seeker. Dual stage motor, with the second stage being ignited in the terminal phase. Chances of escape will be very minimal.
12) My take-away from the article. The French are VERY, VERY, VERY happy with the Rafale. They have a winning solution in terms of capability. The cost is horrendous though. One lesson to learn is the Rafale was designed with future growth in mind i.e. the French are convinced that Rafale will be fully interoperable with the upcoming Future Air Combat System (their 6th generation combat aircraft) in the 2040s. For an aircraft that was designed in the 1980s, entered service in the 1990s and still be effective in the 2040s is no small feat. Kudos to the French for an excellent design.
13) The next part of the Rafale blitz is the F3R variant. I do not want to sit and provide a point-by-point bullet session here, but if the above impressed you...rest assured the F3R is equally impressive. I would strongly suggest you buy the magazine, if you can. It is US $11.99 as shown on the bottom right cover of the magazine. Some things - that I found impressive in the F3R section - that I will mention is...the Meteor is a heavier missile than the MICA. And as a result, there is a slight increase in fuel consumption. Software updates were done to overcome this and new drag indices were provided by Dassault. Pilots, on the other hand, find the Meteor launch to be a non-event. The French Air Force found the Meteor to be so good, that they are now being forced to re-evaluate their tactics. Lots of time is being spent in simulators to create a new tactical syllabus.
It does not take a genius to figure out why the Indian Air Force chose this bird over all the others in the MMRCA contest. The American birds have the same systems (if not better), but there is the (elephant in the room) problem of dealing with their political shenanigans. The Russians have a long way to go in coming close to their Western counterparts in electronics and sensors. The Gripen NG was not mature enough in the first MMRCA contest. And the Eurofighter is a four-nation consortium mess. The IAF made a wise decision in selecting the Rafale.
The third and final part of the Rafale blitz is about the M variant. That I will do tomorrow.
Rakesh wrote:
10) This one will impress you. Future variants of the Rafale will feature a defensive system which consists of a powered payload (i.e. a mini-UAV) which will be launched from one of the chaff's dispensers and will stand in between the threat and the Rafale it is protecting. At the same time, the UAV will track and transmit the SAM radar which is tracking the Rafale, saturate the system and force it to malfunction. I have no clue how it plans to do this, but is what the article says. Initial service is planned for 2025.
Rakesh wrote:So I managed to get my hands on the latest edition of Air International. The edition is June 2019. I never buy the magazine for two main reasons - high cost and not much info that one cannot get off the web. This edition blew me away so much though, that I had to buy it.
Thanks Rakesh. This is fascinating. I did read somewhere that our contract allows us to upgrade to F4 as and when it becomes available. Not sure if its true !
Can these micro-drones do the - 'At the same time, the UAV will track and transmit the SAM radar which is tracking the Rafale, saturate the system and force it to malfunction'?
Rakesh wrote:So I managed to get my hands on the latest edition of Air International. The edition is June 2019. I never buy the magazine for two main reasons - high cost and not much info that one cannot get off the web. This edition blew me away so much though, that I had to buy it.
Thanks Rakesh. This is fascinating. I did read somewhere that our contract allows us to upgrade to F4 as and when it becomes available. Not sure if its true !
That would be a goldmine. If true, Kudos to the babudom who negotiated that. Realistically though it is highly doubtful the French would have agreed to something that can make them mega bucks for/as an upgrade.
Vips, even I read that somewhere. But the GOI will be paying for the upgrade. My philanthropic friends from La France will not do it for free!
The real coup would be if the F4 upgrade cost was included in the 2016 contract. Obviously that did not happen and could not happen. The equipment on the F4 variant is still to be fully finalized. How could Dassault even arrive at a figure?
What is really nice is that the IAF has thought of the entire life cycle of the aircraft and would like to keep the fleet updated as time passes on. Now whether the GOI of the day is willing to release the purse strings is a different matter altogether.
With the French, the tech is on par with the world's best. The cost is where one gets the shock. But it is the price the French gladly pays for independence. That is far more valuable and you cannot put a dollar figure to that.
That cost is offset somewhat when Dassault will offer customized upgrade packages to international Rafale operators like India, Qatar and Egypt. Remember the upgrade cost of the Mirage 2000? I still remember the rhona-dhona on BRF back then, when the deal was announced. So much money spent and not even an AESA radar! When Balakot happened, the upgraded Mirage 2000-9s participated (a deliberate choice of the IAF) and everyone forgot about the rhona-dhona.
Can these micro-drones do the - 'At the same time, the UAV will track and transmit the SAM radar which is tracking the Rafale, saturate the system and force it to malfunction'?
These micro-drones are basically meant as ISR aids and operate in swarms. But swarming behaviour could also be used for other effects (like EW etc) and that was always the plan with the Perdix.
The way micro-drones like these and others can chip in on the EW side isn't by brute jamming or trying to defeat the SAM seeker or radar via that. The way they can potentially serve this mission is by effectively going after the discrimination and creating extreme challenges especially if they can throttle their micro-emissions, synchronize, and self-heal as a swarm so that they can go from one mission to another over their 20-30 minute flight. It is an area that will be pursued but don't expect them to be just small scale MALD like jammers. They won't be doing that. That is not possible within the size, weight and power footprint.
But they are a good indication of the size you are going to get if you fix the design limit to conform with your self defense dispensers and require powered flight. Things like "jam in a can" are already being put to use (systems like Brite Cloud" and the USN's dual band decoy that will come in both towed and un-towed variants). When you add powered flight requirement (hence UAV as Rakesh mentioned) then you limit the size and design so this is the best example I could site.
The USN is also currently working on Project "Remedy" that is designing EW and ESM drones that will be carried in cluster munition dispensers and be used to increase the effectiveness of stand-off and stand-in jammers. But those will be slightly larger so won't be carried in the flare dispensers.
Vips wrote:
That would be a goldmine. If true, Kudos to the babudom who negotiated that. Realistically though it is highly doubtful the French would have agreed to something that can make them mega bucks for/as an upgrade.
The French as far as I can tell, were still formulating capability requirements and/or negotiating F4 contracts with their suppliers when the G2G deal for Rafale's were signed. I believe the major contract award for the F4 variant only came about in January of this year. This makes it unlikely that they were able to guarantee an upgrade to the F-4 standard without any additional cost even before they signed their own contracts for F4 development in the first place.
brar_w wrote:
The way micro-drones like these and others can chip in on the EW side isn't by brute jamming or trying to defeat the SAM seeker or radar via that. The way they can potentially serve this mission is by effectively going after the discrimination and creating extreme challenges especially if they can throttle their micro-emissions, synchronize, and self-heal as a swarm so that they can go from one mission to another over their 20-30 minute flight.
...
The USN is also currently working on Project "Remedy" that is designing EW and ESM drones that will be carried in cluster munition dispensers and be used to increase the effectiveness of stand-off and stand-in jammers. But those will be slightly larger so won't be carried in the flare dispensers.
Rakesh wrote:
10) This one will impress you. Future variants of the Rafale will feature a defensive system which consists of a powered payload (i.e. a mini-UAV) which will be launched from one of the chaff's dispensers and will stand in between the threat and the Rafale it is protecting. At the same time, the UAV will track and transmit the SAM radar which is tracking the Rafale, saturate the system and force it to malfunction. I have no clue how it plans to do this, but is what the article says. Initial service is planned for 2025.
Not much is clear about implementation but NCW will also be use to protect, defend and perhaps in offensive way.
I don't see anything in that video that describes what Rakesh mentioned - a micro UAV launched from a self defense chaff dispensers on board a fighter. The Perdix and its derivatives is the closest thing that come to mind.
Developed with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory, Perdix is an expendable UAV which springs out of a fighter jet’s chaff dispenser and flies low to capture video. The forward and rear wings fold to fit inside the flare canister, with a propeller to push the vehicle forward. US Air Force F-16s dropped Perdix UAVs in 2014 and the following year 90 Perdix missions were completed during exercise Northern Edge in Alaska. Perdix can also be launched from the ground and sea.
“A fighter is a fast moving thing. It’s not meant to fly low and do reconnaissance, especially if you’re trying to look at a difficult angle if something’s hidden,” SCO director William Roper told reporters last summer. “So it makes a lot of sense that if they could deploy something that could find and loiter and radio back that they could be a mothership to carry in Perdix.”
The UAV could have numerous applications, though the SCO has only mentioned Perdix’s ability to fly a low-altitude intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance mission. The UAVs launched in October were the sixth iteration of Perdix, flying in 10°C (50°F) temperatures at Mach 0.6.
200 #Rafale coming.
Deal almost finalized with Govt of #France .
Chota Bhai out.
DRAL will become DAIL (Dassault aviation India limited) with GOI as 50% partner . Firm will be independent of @HALHQBLR .
Dassault will help with GHATAK & AMCA.
Wait & watch!
200 #Rafale coming.
Deal almost finalized with Govt of #France .
Chota Bhai out.
DRAL will become DAIL( Dassault aviation India limited) with GOI as 50% partner . Firm will be independent of @HALHQBLR .
Dassault will help with GHATAK & AMCA.
Wait & watch!
How authentic is this ? Given circumstances this is definitely the best way out. But at no cost we should give up on indigenious AMCA & UCAV programmes.
Dassault has string of projects -- NEURON, FCAS which are capable of replacing UCAV and AMCA. Also, will DAIL be within ambit of Indian laws like BAE USA ?
Not much is clear about implementation but NCW will also be use to protect, defend and perhaps in offensive way.
I don't see anything in that video that describes what Rakesh mentioned - a micro UAV launched from a self defense chaff dispensers on board a fighter. The Perdix and its derivatives is the closest thing that come to mind.
yep Brar, Perdix is definitely closest.
But in European context I didn't see any equivalent programme; closest being UAV swarm being launched from a secondary aircraft like A-400M or something else and then they coordinate with Rafale or FCAS.
Karan M wrote:$15-20 Bn for the aircraft alone likely..
We should be ready to pay that much money in next 12-15 years.
From his twitter thread:
Ninjamonkey
@Aryanwarlord
1h1 hour ago
Yes, also note that the GOI will be a 50% partner so it will essentially be paying itself ~$5-10Bn.
Afaik Dassault has committed to 75% local sourcing of parts from the vendor's it has already trained with DRAL.
200 #Rafale coming.
Deal almost finalized with Govt of #France .
Chota Bhai out.
DRAL will become DAIL (Dassault aviation India limited) with GOI as 50% partner . Firm will be independent of @HALHQBLR .
Dassault will help with GHATAK & AMCA.
Wait & watch!
Awesome news if indeed true, lungi dance.
This may explain silence over engine collaboration with safran , expect desi engine in next one year
