VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

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Rakesh
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Just to give an idea of how much the Indian Navy has been eying the Rafale M, see this picture below. It is from Oct 2019....more than three years ago and well before the trials in 2022. Date of the image can be verified by clicking on the link below...

Rajnath Singh invites French defence firms to India
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 629487.ece
10 Oct 2019

The reason why this photograph is interesting is take a look at the naval officer (in white cap) in the picture. That naval officer was the then Vice Chief of Naval Staff - Vice Admiral G Ashok Kumar (https://tinyurl.com/678tc6bu). October 2019 is when the first Rafale was formally handed over to the Indian Air Force and Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh had gone for the ceremony at Merignac, France. In the picture, one can also see the then Vice Chief of Air Staff - Air Marshal Harjit Singh Arora (https://tinyurl.com/muh5bd4t) and in front, the then Defence Secretary of India - Ajay Kumar. In the picture Rajnath Singh is looking at a M88 turbofan with the CEO of Safran, Olivier Andriès.

When it was ascertained that Vice Admiral G Ashok Kumar - the Vice Chief of Naval Staff - had attended a Rafale hand over ceremony (for the IAF) in France, the buzz in Indian media circles was why was he even there in the first place? The Indian Navy has been looking at the Rafale M, before even the IAF started looking at it during MMRCA 1.0! Admiral Arun Prakash (former Chief of Naval Staff) flew the Rafale M during his tenure (2004 - 06) and called it generation next (https://tinyurl.com/2ek5b2j9).

The Indian Navy ran a MRCBF contest just so that the Rafale M would not end up in a single vendor situation.

Image Source: https://twitter.com/VivekSi85847001/sta ... s7ldL_DF7w

Image
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Bharat Karnad - in one of his many nonsensical diatribes (link below) - published an article about how the Navy's selection of the Rafale M will endanger the TEDBF program. That invited the ire of some prominent retired naval personnel.

I posting their responses below...very interesting read, especially the bolded part from Vice Admiral Harinder Singh (retd).

Navy’s choice of Rafale-M endangers the naval Tejas and the entire indigenous combat aircraft programme
https://bharatkarnad.com/2022/12/08/nav ... programme/
08 Dec 2022
Email from Admiral Arun Prakash (Retd), former Chief of the Naval Staff and Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee

Thu, 8 Dec at 8:07 pm

Bharat, there are limits up to which ANY civilian “expert” or “analyst” – no matter how well-informed he thinks he is – can claim to “know it all”. Apart from that, an academic of your standing, does not need to, over & over again, cast aspersions on serving armed forces officers by innuendo.

Arun Prakash
Email from Vice Admiral Harinder Singh (Retd), former Deputy Chief of the Naval Staff

Fri, 9 Dec at 3:14 pm

Dear Bharat ji,

Yes, you have a point of view but its distorted and not based on any logic

I have been hearing about the LCA and Kaveri engine followed by the LCA N from the end of the 70s, roughly 4 decades. I looked at when I was DCNS and was convinced that it will not deliver though we happily continued to fund it. Its difficult to find what’s atamnirbhar in LCA except for the frame and some miscellaneous signal equipment. Yes we developed and the learning process is important and hence the need to support it.

Aircraft carriers have limited ability to carry aircraft on board and therefore they need to have max reach and time on task, fully loaded and you will not understand this issue. At a rough guess we will require over 50% extra LCA Ns to be loaded on board and for which there is no space.

Lastly, unsaid, who will provide the Nuclear strike capability from a long stand off distance, certainly not your LCA N. I suspect what may have tipped the scales in favour of the French may just have been this aspect. The navy cant wait another 2 decades for getting this capability to sea against a superior enemy Navy.

I agree with Arun on his remarks and I dont see that the serving community charged with national defence are stupid and you know more than them and may require more study

Cheers
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Prasad »

The TEDBF needs to fly in 3 years. And we don't have FSED funding. But sure everyone on the inside knows best and people can't call them out being civilians. Tell us how the vikramaditya & Mig-29K are doing. The carrier hasn't sailed a couple of days from Goa. Last time the K took the life a young pilot. Half the systems in the Vikrant aren't indigenous. There's no p75-I either. And afaik the Harriers aren't nuclear capable. Anyways they've had no fighter capability of any sort in the past many years with the vikky being a dock queen. Who gets the blame for buying it in the first place?
Last edited by Prasad on 06 Jan 2023 21:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by RoyG »

You brought up an imp point. The engine tech transfer won't be 100%. Never will be. The whole point of make in India is to make products more affordable to the Indian consumer including the defence forces. The engine should be seen in this light. We won't be learning much of anything from these so called tech transfers. France will never part with the critical tech.
Rakesh wrote:
Rakesh wrote: I believe the ongoing strategic dialogue between India and France is revolving around additional Rafales + JV for turbofan + naval cooperation (pump jet propulsion).

Only time will tell if these assumptions are true.
India, France Discuss Security, Stability in Indo-Pacific During Strategic Dialogue
https://www.statecraft.co.in/article/in ... c-dialogue
06 Jan 2023

India, France Vow Greater Defence & Security Cooperation, Rafale M Gets A Push
https://news.abplive.com/news/india/ind ... -m-1573942
05 Jan 2023

I very much doubt the 100% figure below, but cooperation on engine technology (110kN for AMCA) is very much on the menu....

https://twitter.com/DesiEscobar07/statu ... s7ldL_DF7w ---> 100 percent transfer of technology for manufacturing of aircraft engines to power twin engine fighter and aggressive muscle flexing of the PLA at LAC was discussed between NSA Doval and Bonne.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Prasad wrote:The TEDBF needs to fly in 3 years. And we don't have FSED funding. But sure everyone on the inside knows best and people can't call them out being civilians. Tell us how the vikramaditya & Mig-29K are doing. The carrier hasn't sailed a couple of days from Goa. Last time the K took the life a young pilot. Half the systems in the Vikrant aren't indigenous. There's no p75-I either. And afaik the Harriers aren't nuclear capable. Anyways they've had no fighter capability of any sort in the past many years with the vikky being a dock queen. Who gets the blame for buying it in the first place?
Certainly not the Govt who bought it in the first place i.e the NDA Govt in the early 2000s. Accountability rests on the shoulders of the services, whether good or bad.

But to quote Admiral Sureesh Mehta (retd) - when questioned about the Vikramaditya purchase by the media - Who will give us a carrier at that price? That quote did not age well, because the Russians hamstrung us by forcing India to pay more than the contract agreement and we got a lemon on our hands at the end of it. Both the vessel and the aircraft are subpar.

With the Vikrant, we finally have a proper STOBAR vessel after the retirement of the Viraat. The Vikramaditya is a dock queen, as you have aptly stated above.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

RoyG wrote:You brought up an imp point. The engine tech transfer won't be 100%. Never will be. The whole point of make in India is to make products more affordable to the Indian consumer including the defence forces. The engine should be seen in this light. We won't be learning much of anything from these so called tech transfers. France will never part with the critical tech.
Well said Roy. No one will part with critical tech.

Really ironic when the F-16 was being offered to India during the SE episode, the risk assessor was claiming on BRF that the F-16 purchase was payment for engine technology from GE :lol: :roll:

The 110kN AMCA turbofan program will have critical tech from abroad which India will not have access to. The only way to circumvent that would be to develop our own. We seem to have money for everything under the sun i.e. MRCBF, MRFA, etc....but getting a couple of ex-Air India 747s (sitting on the tarmac in Delhi) to serve as flying test beds, is too complicated for our decision makers. Our priorities are messed up.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by MeshaVishwas »

Bhideo source:



VayuSena just showing off now 8) :

Elbit TARGO II HMDS on the Ghafaal:

Image

This is the mango helmets of the fleet by MSA:

Image
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:Bharat Karnad - in one of his many nonsensical diatribes (link below) - published an article about how the Navy's selection of the Rafale M will endanger the TEDBF program. That invited the ire of some prominent retired naval personnel.

I posting their responses below...very interesting read, especially the bolded part from Vice Admiral Harinder Singh (retd).

Navy’s choice of Rafale-M endangers the naval Tejas and the entire indigenous combat aircraft programme
https://bharatkarnad.com/2022/12/08/nav ... programme/
08 Dec 2022
The nuclear part is 100% what I’ve been saying from the outset and what none of the F-18SH proponents ever addressed, in fact most dismissed that the IN would even want this capability from a carrier fighter.

The US would never in a million years allow india to use its platforms as nuclear strike assets.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:The nuclear part is 100% what I’ve been saying from the outset and what none of the F-18SH proponents ever addressed, in fact most dismissed that the IN would even want this capability from a carrier fighter.

The US would never in a million years allow india to use its platforms as nuclear strike assets.
I had posted this earlier. While we are not getting the ASMP-A, mounting our own type will occur provided the Rafale M is the chosen MRCBF.

While cannot be confirmed, there are plans to mount BrahMos-NG on Rafale.

https://twitter.com/warplane_*****/statu ... uUjdchoY1g ---> French Navy Rafale M F3R taking off from the nuclear aircraft carrier CDG with supersonic nuclear tactical missile ASMP-A.

Image
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ArjunPandit »

KSingh wrote: The US would never in a million years allow india to use its platforms as nuclear strike assets.
how does paf plan to deliver nukes???US may allow but the question is would we trust their platform for that???
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

ArjunPandit wrote:
KSingh wrote: The US would never in a million years allow india to use its platforms as nuclear strike assets.
how does paf plan to deliver nukes???US may allow but the question is would we trust their platform for that???
The PAF rigged the F-16 themselves. That was the reason for the Pressler Amendment.

If the IN does that to the F-18SH, we will face the same ire.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:The nuclear part is 100% what I’ve been saying from the outset and what none of the F-18SH proponents ever addressed, in fact most dismissed that the IN would even want this capability from a carrier fighter.

The US would never in a million years allow india to use its platforms as nuclear strike assets.
I had posted this earlier. While we are not getting the ASMP-A, mounting our own type will occur provided the Rafale M is the chosen MRCBF.

While cannot be confirmed, there are plans to mount BrahMos-NG on Rafale.

https://twitter.com/warplane_*****/statu ... uUjdchoY1g ---> French Navy Rafale M F3R taking off from the nuclear aircraft carrier CDG with supersonic nuclear tactical missile ASMP-A.
Mirage is already within SFC ambit (with OEM support I’m told), this will be addressed for Rafale M, in fact one of the speculations for the tranche 1 ‘emergency’ IAF Rafale deal was the need to get a modern strike fighter within SFC’s remit so I wouldn’t be surprised if this role wasn’t already given the green light by both sides
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by KSingh »

ArjunPandit wrote:
KSingh wrote: The US would never in a million years allow india to use its platforms as nuclear strike assets.
how does paf plan to deliver nukes???US may allow but the question is would we trust their platform for that???
Can’t trust the US at the best of times, for a strategic mission? Would be absurd

The last time india fought a war the US had actively suppressed India’s warfighting capabilities (GPS downgrade)
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ramana »

Both Bharat Karnad and the Admiral are half correct.
Without the RafaleM, the IAC will be a helicopter carrier.
And will tide over till TEDBF is produced.
In fact, by getting RafaleM GOI sidestepped many mines and will ensure no pressing deadlines.


As for the admiral saying nukes, no one will carry nukes on our carriers.
As the old saying goes "cut your cloth according to your size".
Fortunately, Adm Hari Kumar is a very savvy sailor.

Rakesh, Adm Mehta is right. The Gorshkov and Mig 29 package was the best among the available options.
Both were duds. Gorshkov was more damaged and the estimate to refurbish was inadequate.
and the navalized Mig-29 wasn't too great either.

The mendacity was to design Vikrant lift for Mig-29s consciously.
Anyway, the follow-on carrier will address it.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Prem »

Rakesh wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote: how does paf plan to deliver nukes???US may allow but the question is would we trust their platform for that???
The PAF rigged the F-16 themselves. That was the reason for the Pressler Amendment.

If the IN does that to the F-18SH, we will face the same ire.
Seems Turkey helped Paki in such modifications.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Anujan »

Pakis even rigged harpoons to carry nukes.

It was a big hungama circa 2009
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ArjunPandit »

Now the question I feel like asking is, if strategic considerations were critical, then why the competition happened for navy.. Why not a joint order for navy and air force on one go
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ramana »

IAF still wants its MRFA.
That nasha hasn't come down yet.
Most likely the naval order will be signed during the upcoming Macron visit.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

ArjunPandit wrote:Now the question I feel like asking is, if strategic considerations were critical, then why the competition happened for navy.. Why not a joint order for navy and air force on one go
You cannot have single vendor purchases. The DPP does not permit that, even in G2G deals. Some examples;

1) The C-17 competed against the Il-76MD-90A.
2) The AH-64 competed against the Mi-28.
3) The P-8I competed against the Airbus A319 MPA.
4) The CH-47 competed against the Mi-26.
5) The MH-60R competed against the NH-90 I believe, but could be wrong.

Even the MRCBF contest is a G2G deal, but you still require platform evaluation. This is what Dassault and Boeing performed with their aircraft in 2022 at the Shore Based Test Facility (SBTF) in Goa. The Navy has reportedly made their decision, but has been tight lipped about it to date. Only the media is claiming that the Rafale M has won. But if it is indeed the Rafale M, I truly believe it will be the end of the MRFA contest. It is pointless to continue with that contest any longer, if the Rafale M is the winner of the MRCBF. So we will have to see what happens when Macron visits India this March.

When India started acquiring certain American platforms, lobbyists (defence analysts) in the US and India started pushing for a closer military alliance between the two. The end goal was for America to become the preferred (and eventually the sole) military supplier to India. The Indian market is *HUGE* and American firms can earn billions from the three services who have a preference for foreign platforms. How many other air forces out there have acquisition programs for triple digit fighters from a phoren OEM? Regardless of success, the very prospect of a multi-billion dollar and decade long program, is too enticing for foreign OEMs to ignore.

Seeing these recent sales and other geopolitical events, analysts like Ashley Tellis and folks like him in the US and India, weaved a wonderful fantasy of an Indo-US alliance that would usher in peace via military diplomacy. That fever even got hold of a number of BRFites who weaved fantasies of their own. Operating US sourced platforms (fighters, helicopters, missiles, major components like EMALS, etc) also serves another key geopolitical purpose for the US i.e. geopolitical control via restrictive agreements. This is vital to the continued dependence on the American MIC. That fantasy came to a crashing halt in the 2016 Presidential Election when MAGA took hold, from which the Indo-US bonhomie has yet to return to its pre 2016 euphoria.

But it is a mistake to overstate the strategic considerations. In the US, military sales are viewed as an extension of their geopolitical strategy. Sell arms and get into the US sphere of influence. In India however, the services' choice is what matters. This is a confusing and perplexing issue for US policy makers. They can never understand how the services manage to overrule the Govt of the day. The only way the services do not get what they want is if the platform being acquired is exorbitantly expensive. Therefore when MMRCA 1.0 was not won by the US entrants, Ashley Tellis wrote an article which summed up the US mood perfectly - India settled for a plane and not a relationship.

This same confusion exists even on BRF with the pro American crowd.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by JTull »

Rakesh wrote: You cannot have single vendor purchases. The DPP does not permit that, even in G2G deals. Some examples;

1) The C-17 competed against the Il-76MD-90A.
4) The CH-47 competed against the Mi-26.
At the time of "competition", Russians didn't have these in productions and wanted India to fund the development. IAF just didn't want to spend a decade debugging them. They have plenty of experience with hangar queens et al!
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ArjunPandit »

ramana wrote:IAF still wants its MRFA.
That nasha hasn't come down yet.
Most likely the naval order will be signed during the upcoming Macron visit.
i seriously hope that we just wrap both the orders in one go and move on to tedbef, orca, mk2 rather than these charades..entire set needs to firm it up and focus on areas like engine, manufacturing capacity rather than wasting time and energy on competitions...easier said than done in the broader environment..
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

JTull wrote:
Rakesh wrote: You cannot have single vendor purchases. The DPP does not permit that, even in G2G deals. Some examples;

1) The C-17 competed against the Il-76MD-90A.
4) The CH-47 competed against the Mi-26.
At the time of "competition", Russians didn't have these in productions and wanted India to fund the development. IAF just didn't want to spend a decade debugging them. They have plenty of experience with hangar queens et al!
Indeed. I was just pointing out the fact that even in G2G deals there are competitions. Single vendor situations is a no-no in the MoD.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

From Rear Admiral Mukul Asthana (retd), former Naval Aviator, Indian Navy.

https://twitter.com/MukulAsthana5/statu ... ERJx2lWwGA ---> She’s a beautiful flying machine!

Privileged to fly in the rear cockpit of a French Rafale B.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

Flawed analysis by Jyoti Malhotra all over, so watch it if you must endure. However few tidbits about Rafale at 4:40. Take it FWIW...its all good only.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

Rafale's M88 blades will follow a similar mfg process. For once the video is in English !

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by vimal »

Cyrano wrote:Flawed analysis by Jyoti Malhotra all over, so watch it if you must endure. However few tidbits about Rafale at 4:40. Take it FWIW...its all good only.
Entire video is a cringefest of "perhaps" and "maybe" please refrain posting from this jihadi site.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

I gave fair warning :)
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Anujan »

OT for this thread, I cannot stand the Lady. She wrote this oped

We must not allow hostile elements in Pakistan to distract us from the need for peace

The beheading of Lance Naik Hemraj, a gruesome, ghastly and horrendous act that no self-respecting army can condone, has rightly stirred considerable anger....

Pakistan army and certain terrorist groups benefit from rising tension on the LoC as a means to distract from the growing tension within the state, the only answer is to quietly continue to support the democratic constituency inside Pakistan.....

With the Americans perhaps leaving Afghanistan this year, the neighbourhood is going to be aflame with several agonies. India has to learn to absorb pain. Hysteria is never the hallmark of great nationhood.
Commenting on when Lance Naik Hemraj and Lance Naik Sudhakar Singh were beheaded and their bodies mutilated by by Pakistani border action team.

I will never read an article by her or listen to any of her vomit ever again.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Cyrano »

agree, I linked her post re rafale comments. Won't anymore
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

X-Post from the MRCA Contest - Episode III thread....
Bharadwaj wrote: https://www.financialexpress.com/defenc ... p/2953232/

Is the mega military project to acquire 114 fighters for the IAF in jeopardy?
The writing is on the wall - the program is dead. This is why Saab pulled out of their JV with Adani. The OEMs know where this is heading, now that the Rafale M has likely won the MRCBF contest.

As stated before, all eyes were on the MRCBF contest. A win for Dassault in the MRCBF will be the end of the MRFA. It is Rafale all the way. As an Airbus executive ruefully stated in the past - “Just give it to the damn frogs!” - with relation to the MMRCA/MRFA saga.

Frogs is a term of endearment given by the English to their French brethren. The French consider it to be deragatory, but I don’t want to digress from this thread :)

Points to Note….

1) Additional double digit Rafales are coming for the IAF. To all forum members (who support indigenisation), please do not get despondent over this. It is the only logical conclusion to this saga.

2) In a video interview, Air Marshal Raghunath Nambiar (retd) had stated that if the Rafale was chosen again as the MRFA, the IAF would require 90 airframes. 114 airframes would be needed if another MRFA was chosen, due to a different maintenance schedule. 90 airframes is five squadrons at 18 aircraft each. This is how the first two Rafale squadrons (36 aircraft) are broken down.

3) Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari recently said that 5 - 6 additional phoren MRFA squadrons are required. Connect the dots. And this from the same Air Chief who said that 114 MRFA is an absolute must have.

4) 90 additional airframes plus the 36 in service now equals 126 fighters. That number is the exact same of MMRCA 1.0. Air HQ wanted a French bird in sizeable quantity and they have likely got it. Bees Saal Baad…Magar Aaya Toh Sahi! :)

5) When Macron comes in March, a number of deals should get signed - MRCBF and additional Scorpenes are two that come to mind. Additional Rafales for IAF could occur, but we are in an election year…so could be deferred to post general elections.

6) We could also see the GTRE-Safran JV signed in the near future, as part of a mega Rafale deal. A committee headed by Dr Kota Harinarayana is examining proposals from GE, Rolls Royce and Safran for a 110kN turbofan for AMCA.

7) The French are reportedly also offering pump jet propulsion (from their Suffren SSN program) for Project 75 Alpha - India’s six build SSN program that is currently on the drawing boards at the Indian Naval Design Bureau.

If Rafale M is the chosen MRCBF for the Indian Navy, it is Rafale all the way for the Indian Air Force.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by arvin »

Rakesh wrote:
1) Additional double digit Rafales are coming for the IAF. To all forum members (who support indigenisation), please do not get despondent over this. It is the only logical conclusion to this saga.
.
If the order size crosses 100 (26 + 90), most likely we might have local assembly. DassAult would be looking for a second plant since they have to fulfill french air force orders on priority over exports.
In that case who would be the private partner, TATA, Adani, L&T.....
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

arvin wrote:If the order size crosses 100 (26 + 90), most likely we might have local assembly. Dassault would be looking for a second plant since they have to fulfill french air force orders on priority over exports.
In that case who would be the private partner, TATA, Adani, L&T.....
France's Defence Minister - Sébastien Lecornu - visited India last month. Met with with his Indian counterpart - Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh. They held their usual meetings, but the French Defence Minister clearly reiterated that a minimum 100 aircraft order is required to transfer a Rafale production line to India. IMVHO, this will happen for a number of reasons;

1) French President Emmanuel Macron has just proposed a massive increase in France's six year defence plan ---> https://tinyurl.com/rtyw9f2t. But more importantly, he wants the French naval and air arms to transition to an all Rafale fleet. So retire the Mirage 2000, which is their plan by the end of the decade or early next. France has planned for a total of 180 Rafales for their naval and air arms and around 150 aircraft have been delivered to date. They are going to order additional new build Rafale aircraft and upgrade their current fleet to the F4.2 standard which is due in 2027 if I am not mistaken. The F4.1 variant started flight tests in Q2 of 2021 I believe.

I personally believe that the French will eventually order more than their initial plan of 180 aircraft, as SCAF (France's 6th generation fighter program) is severely delayed and is not expected to arrive till the early 2050s. That is 30 years away and they have to keep the Rafale up-to-date with regular upgrades for the next 3+ decades. Rafale is their only viable combat aircraft or to use Dassault's marketing term - omnirole fighter. Do everything required - reconnaissance, anti-ship, air superiority, precision strike, SEAD/DEAD, etc. Dassault is already planning for the F5 variant and there are talks for F6 as well.

2) The French Air Force just received her first new build Rafale F3R in over four years --> https://tinyurl.com/sc6834ke. However, they also have these orders to fulfil;

* Indonesia - 42 Aircraft
* UAE - 80 Aircraft

Side note, there is a massive Saudi deal in the works. But still too early to call ---> https://tinyurl.com/3acmcc7n

If India orders 26 Rafale Ms and additional Rafale C/Bs for her Air Force, Dassault will find it challenging to deliver all these foreign orders as per contract and also maintain deliveries to the French military. The line at Mérignac can churn out 33 airframes per year, but that will come at an increased cost in manufacturing for Dassault. The above deals are signed contracts and Dassault is required to deliver them at the stipulated price in the contract. And India is not going to wait till all the above deliveries are completed, for her deliveries to begin. Therefore, the only way to get around this impasse is to have a new line built.

This will be beneficial for Dassault, as two lines can obviously churn out aircraft quicker and the cost of a new line will be absorbed with a minimum 100 aircraft deal. This line can deliver aircraft to India and *perhaps* even foreign customers, but it depends on what the second line is expected to churn out each year. Air HQ's plan is induct approximately 11 to 12 MRFAs per year and I don't believe that plan has changed. The line at Mérignac currently does around the same. The end goal is to have a profitable line - whether at Mérignac or elsewhere.

The more interesting thing to watch for is this new production line will transition to a MROU (Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul & Upgrade) facility, once deliveries are completed. This will be nice to have, because it will serve both India and International Rafale customers (UAE, Egypt, Indonesia and perhaps even Qatar). No more sending aircraft abroad for upgrades, but rather do them within the country.

Still too early to call on the private partner, although some are claiming that a potential second line will be a GOI run affair. The acronym that I have come across is DIAL (Dassault India Aviation Limited), which is going to replace DRAL (Dassault Reliance Aviation Limited). Such a venture will likely come post the 2024 general elections. If such a deal is announced in March of this year, we can safely assume that the BJP is super confident that they have 2024 in the bag with a comfortable majority.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:
Bharadwaj wrote: https://www.financialexpress.com/defenc ... p/2953232/

Is the mega military project to acquire 114 fighters for the IAF in jeopardy?
The writing is on the wall - the program is dead. This is why Saab pulled out of their JV with Adani. The OEMs know where this is heading, now that the Rafale M has likely won the MRCBF contest.

….
Anything more than another 2/3 squadrons off the shelf (emergency) that they have to go for a make in india component means they’d have to run the MRFA contest, I can’t see how they could order anywhere near 90-114 jets for upwards of $15bn via the GtG route, surely in terms of politics this is absolutely unviable considering the taint the INC have already given tranche 1 Rafale?

As far as I can see, the only option is 2-3 Rafale squadrons ordered after 2024 and then MRFA saga is over. On top of this there might be the 26 Rafale M order also but the MMRCA dream of 100+ foreign 4.5 gen jets assembled in india is never going to come to be (and that’s fine as long as domestic jets are ordered at scale)
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

How France is ready to help India diversify from Russia — ‘build fighters to nuclear submarines’
https://theprint.in/defence/how-france- ... s/1328965/
22 January 2023
On board the French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle, the French envoy also committed to jointly developing a fighter jet engine together.
“We have great cooperation on strategic issues. There is an extreme level of trust for the countries to commit to each other,” he said responding to a query by ThePrint. “No other country can commit to delivering the best technology to the Indian forces without any kind of restrictions. We are committed not just to Make in India but also step further and co-develop and co-manufacture with India.”
“The Naval Group has been working with the Mazagaon Dock Limited and building in India the Scorpene submarines while fully transferring the technology,” he said. “We want to continue with our partnership. Whether India wants to go in for P75 I or more Scorpenes or even next generation, it is up to India to make up its mind.”
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:Anything more than another 2/3 squadrons off the shelf (emergency) that they have to go for a make in india component means they’d have to run the MRFA contest, I can’t see how they could order anywhere near 90-114 jets for upwards of $15bn via the GtG route, surely in terms of politics this is absolutely unviable considering the taint the INC have already given tranche 1 Rafale?

As far as I can see, the only option is 2-3 Rafale squadrons ordered after 2024 and then MRFA saga is over. On top of this there might be the 26 Rafale M order also but the MMRCA dream of 100+ foreign 4.5 gen jets assembled in india is never going to come to be (and that’s fine as long as domestic jets are ordered at scale)
Provided the Rafale Marine is the winner of the MRCBF contest, the Rafale production line is coming. It is the timing of that announcement which is an unknown variable. If no deal is signed for the Rafale Marine in March 2023, it will happen post the 2024 General Elections along with an order of Rafales for the IAF.

A deal this close to the 2024 general elections might be risky, despite all the predictions that 2024 is already in the bag for the BJP. People want economic stability and will vote for the party that is best suited to deliver it. That is what the voting citizen really cares about. The ground reality is that the BJP is best suited to deliver that.

IMVHO, it will not be 114 Rafales though. A number between 74 - 90 for the IAF to be combined with the 26 for the Navy. Any combination of that will reach/surpass the magic number of 100, which is what Dassault requires to create another production line. The Rafale Marine for the Navy is the only viable path that Air HQ has, to get what it really desires - more Rafales.

The payments will be made over the length of the deliveries and not up front. Those deliveries will take close to a decade to complete. That was the plan the late CDS, General Bipin Rawat and the then CAS, Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria had agreed upon. I have not come across anything to indicate that plan has changed.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Kartik »

Rakesh wrote:
arvin wrote:If the order size crosses 100 (26 + 90), most likely we might have local assembly. Dassault would be looking for a second plant since they have to fulfill french air force orders on priority over exports.
In that case who would be the private partner, TATA, Adani, L&T.....
France's Defence Minister - Sébastien Lecornu - visited India last month. Met with with his Indian counterpart....
Just keep one data point in mind - for the Colombian Kfir replacement, it was revealed that the Rafale was CHEAPER than the F-16V! In all of the deals signed for the F-16V, the price has been eye wateringly high for a single engine fighter. Given the USD to INR and Euro to INR exchange rate, the Rafale is now a lot more affordable than it was during the original 126 MRCA contest, versus American fighters.

Article link
Likewise, Minister Velásquez affirms that the Rafale has a flight hour cost 30% cheaper than that of the current Kfir. Furthermore, he claimed that the Rafale has a cheaper acquisition price than the F-16 Block 70, the most modern production model of this iconic fighter-bomber.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:Anything more than another 2/3 squadrons off the shelf (emergency) that they have to go for a make in india component means they’d have to run the MRFA contest, I can’t see how they could order anywhere near 90-114 jets for upwards of $15bn via the GtG route, surely in terms of politics this is absolutely unviable considering the taint the INC have already given tranche 1 Rafale?

As far as I can see, the only option is 2-3 Rafale squadrons ordered after 2024 and then MRFA saga is over. On top of this there might be the 26 Rafale M order also but the MMRCA dream of 100+ foreign 4.5 gen jets assembled in india is never going to come to be (and that’s fine as long as domestic jets are ordered at scale)
Provided the Rafale Marine is the winner of the MRCBF contest, the Rafale production line is coming. It is the timing of that announcement which is an unknown variable. If no deal is signed for the Rafale Marine in March 2023, it will happen post the 2024 General Elections along with an order of Rafales for the IAF.

A deal this close to the 2024 general elections might be risky, despite all the predictions that 2024 is already in the bag for the BJP. People want economic stability and will vote for the party that is best suited to deliver it. That is what the voting citizen really cares about. The ground reality is that the BJP is best suited to deliver that.

IMVHO, it will not be 114 Rafales though. A number between 74 - 90 for the IAF to be combined with the 26 for the Navy. Any combination of that will reach/surpass the magic number of 100, which is what Dassault requires to create another production line. The Rafale Marine for the Navy is the only viable path that Air HQ has, to get what it really desires - more Rafales.

The payments will be made over the length of the deliveries and not up front. Those deliveries will take close to a decade to complete. That was the plan the late CDS, General Bipin Rawat and the then CAS, Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria had agreed upon. I have not come across anything to indicate that plan has changed.
I hope you’re right but I find it very hard to imagine any new fighter production line in india now, the timelines involved would just be too stretched.

As you say there’s very very little chance of any deals or even announcements prior to 2024 (close to zero chance in fact) and one should thank the esteemed opposition for making the most obvious solution to the IAF’s woes such a toxic issue

I just don’t see how it could be done bureaucratically, they haven’t found the Rafale L1 in MRFA (not even a RFP has been issued) so under what basis could they select the Rafale for the MRFA and sign to make many more of them in india? The only clause I can see is ordering some off the shelf as part of a repeat order for the first tranche.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Pratyush »

The only deal that is politically safe to conclude is a deal for additional MK1A.

Every other deal has same political risks.

Maybe, just maybe, deals with the US will not be attacked due to fear of Khan reprisals by the opposition Pappu.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Kartik wrote:Just keep one data point in mind - for the Colombian Kfir replacement, it was revealed that the Rafale was CHEAPER than the F-16V! In all of the deals signed for the F-16V, the price has been eye wateringly high for a single engine fighter. Given the USD to INR and Euro to INR exchange rate, the Rafale is now a lot more affordable than it was during the original 126 MRCA contest, versus American fighters.

Article link
Likewise, Minister Velásquez affirms that the Rafale has a flight hour cost 30% cheaper than that of the current Kfir. Furthermore, he claimed that the Rafale has a cheaper acquisition price than the F-16 Block 70, the most modern production model of this iconic fighter-bomber.
Whoa! I just learned something new :) Thanks Kartik.

I guess I was looking at this simplistically. I always thought the Rafale (being twin engined) would be more expensive to operate than the F-16. Perhaps I am living too much under Comrade Putin's influence and have read only about the twin engined Russian fighters in IAF service (MiG-29 and Su-30MKI). They are more expensive to operate than their single engined counterparts (i.e. Mirage 2000). The F-15EX I believe also has a very high OPEX.
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