VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

dinesh_kimar · Post by **dinesh_kimar** » 08 Jul 2020 22:31

I dunno abt " mastery will take 2 years" type of scenario, when AH 64 have started night ops over Ladakh.

Kargil had new Su-30 being piloted by Tipnis to send a message of readiness to expand the conflict.

I understand during crunch situations, the IAF will perform the impossible.

I read somewhere that kargil era paveway LGB had also arrived a few days before conflict, and we're jury rigged overnight.

The C-130, C-17 Galaxy and P-8I were inducted into operations about a week after induction.
Like Leh-Ladakh-DBO type of high tempo operations.

My guess is Rafale will start operations by July -August itself .

I bet Karan M saab a pitcher of your favourite dram that Rafale operations start by August.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 08 Jul 2020 23:01

The number of pilots qualified to fly the Rafale are limited for now.

Those pilots who are operational on the Rafale and will also serve as instructors for the Rafale.

There is probably a handful of pilots right now in the IAF qualified to fly the plane. As more Rafales come in, the intake of pilots will also increase.

The IAF has already said they will start operations by August, so Dinesh Saar get that pitcher of Karan's favorite ready

dinesh_kimar · Post by **dinesh_kimar** » 08 Jul 2020 23:07

Ha ha I missed that Saar. Ok will do.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 10 Jul 2020 10:16

Looks like SCALP/Storm Shadow can be fired by M2Ks. So why wait for Rafale? The Indian upgraded M2Ks did not get that capability?

basant · Post by **basant** » 10 Jul 2020 11:04

^^^
Probably Meteor and SCALP EG. In mountains the ranges would be much less given the height of the targets.

amitverma · Post by **amitverma** » 13 Jul 2020 18:52

https://twitter.com/Maverick_bharat/sta ... 9741972481 ---> If rumours are to be believed India is getting 44 more Rafale with upgraded kit and fast track delivery.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Jul 2020 18:58

amitverma wrote: https://twitter.com/Maverick_bharat/sta ... 9741972481 ---> If rumours are to be believed India is getting 44 more Rafale with upgraded kit and fast track delivery.

That would make the most sense.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 13 Jul 2020 20:08

It would make no sense without adequate Tejas orders

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Jul 2020 21:55

Aditya_V wrote:It would make no sense without adequate Tejas orders

That's a given. Some 200 Tejas Mk1A by 2024 and 400 Mk2 by 2030.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Jul 2020 21:56

amitverma wrote:https://twitter.com/Maverick_bharat/sta ... 9741972481 ---> If rumours are to be believed India is getting 44 more Rafale with upgraded kit and fast track delivery.

France can offload about a dozen aircraft per year for export out if its own internal procurement plans starting 2022 (they've already zero'd out their own procurement till 2021 to meet export schedule). There would obviously be some French armed force resistance to this since this will only increase the number of years they would go without even a single delivery. Similarly, unless Dassault increases production even further (which chews through backlog faster) it also means that it will not have any capacity to offer to any of its potential customers to whom it is pitching the aircraft or additional orders. Dassault would proabably like to maintain something better than "minimally viable production rate" just to be cost competitive so there will be multiple forces at play here when it comes to what schedule is offered and what is demanded in terms of financial compensation for freeing up slots.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 13 Jul 2020 21:59

I believe the production line can do a maximum of 33 per year, but does the bare minimum of 11 per year to keep the line active.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 13 Jul 2020 22:22

Mort Walker wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:It would make no sense without adequate Tejas orders
That's a given. Some 200 Tejas Mk1A by 2024 and 400 Mk2 by 2030.

Sir, surely you jest

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Jul 2020 22:40

Rakesh wrote:
Mort Walker wrote: That's a given. Some 200 Tejas Mk1A by 2024 and 400 Mk2 by 2030.
Sir, surely you jest

It would be a massive aerospace and defence self-sufficiency goal. The GE404 or 414 would be purchased, until a domestic engine could be made.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Jul 2020 22:41

Rakesh wrote:I believe the production line can do a maximum of 33 per year, but does the bare minimum of 11 per year to keep the line active.

Yes it can do more but that doesn’t mean it necessarily will. Dassault will slowly spool it up to get it north or 22 (IIRC) once French deliveries restart. However Increasing the production rate beyond that has a ramp up and ramp down cost associated with it. So you must have the ability to sustain the higher rate for a while to recover that investment or pass that cost on to customers. It also means that unless you can add to the backlog via fresh export or domestic orders, you will just run through your order book faster and may be forced to shut down the line earlier than planned. So multiple forces at play here including how it impacts French Air Force modernization plans, future export prospects and sales campaigns and additional orders from other existing customer. And because no Options were priced in to the original contract, these things would need to be negotiated between Dassault, France and the GOI along with any other interested parties also having 2022-2025 delivery conversations with Dassault.

basant · Post by **basant** » 14 Jul 2020 00:12

amitverma wrote:https://twitter.com/Maverick_bharat/sta ... 9741972481 ---> If rumours are to be believed India is getting 44 more Rafale with upgraded kit and fast track delivery.

So that will make 4 squadron with 18+2a/c!

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Jul 2020 00:19

Yes indeed and a nice way to end the MMRCA contest, in its current form. However it is only a rumor. No official confirmation.

If it does turn out to be true...the MMRCA contest will still continue, but will likely morph into a fifth generation contest.

India’s 5th Gen AMCA Jet To Be Public-Private Program
https://www.livefistdefence.com/2020/06 ... chief.html
28 June 2020

~~LM and~~ Boeing will be the clear winner here. The Tempest (UK) and the FCAS (France) programs are still ways off.

Added Later: In fact, there may not even be a contest. Just a straight up G2G deal.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Jul 2020 00:21

brar_w wrote:
Rakesh wrote:I believe the production line can do a maximum of 33 per year, but does the bare minimum of 11 per year to keep the line active.
Yes it can do more but that doesn’t mean it necessarily will. Dassault will slowly spool it up to get it north or 22 (IIRC) once French deliveries restart. However Increasing the production rate beyond that has a ramp up and ramp down cost associated with it. So you must have the ability to sustain the higher rate for a while to recover that investment or pass that cost on to customers.

Agreed. The cost will be passed on to the customer. Provided India is willing to pay for that increased delivery schedule.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Jul 2020 00:22

Mort Walker wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Sir, surely you jest
It would be a massive aerospace and defence self-sufficiency goal. The GE404 or 414 would be purchased, until a domestic engine could be made.

I am waiting for the day to see a MRO facility for GE's F404 and F414 turbofans in India. That would be a nice addition to have considering the Mk1, Mk1A, Mk2 and even the first two AMCA units will have engines from GE. Great opportunity for GE.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 14 Jul 2020 00:44

Rakesh wrote:Yes indeed and a nice way to end the MMRCA contest, in its current form. However it is only a rumor. No official confirmation.

If it does turn out to be true...the MMRCA contest will still continue, but will likely morph into a fifth generation contest....

Waah sir waah. Here we are wondering if additional rafale/Tejas is coming, and you are feeding us khayali pilaf of f35!

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Jul 2020 00:47

Cain Marko wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Yes indeed and a nice way to end the MMRCA contest, in its current form. However it is only a rumor. No official confirmation.

If it does turn out to be true...the MMRCA contest will still continue, but will likely morph into a fifth generation contest....
Waah sir waah. Here we are wondering if additional rafale/Tejas is coming, and you are feeding us khayali pilaf of f35!

Cain-ji, a fifth generation contest will not be about the plane

It will be about the engine. No ToT of any nature of course. Just screwdrivergiri.

Below is a possible Boeing offering.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Jul 2020 07:33

How did the number 44 come about?

Last we heard it was 126 reduced to 36.
At most it would be another 36.

So 8 more for what?

Should be rationale for it and not pull it from the air.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 14 Jul 2020 08:01

The 36+44 = 80 which is 4 squadrons @ 20 each.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 14 Jul 2020 08:54

Mort Walker wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:It would make no sense without adequate Tejas orders
That's a given. Some 200 Tejas Mk1A by 2024 and 400 Mk2 by 2030.

Yes sir but we need the contracts to be signed for MK1A and more MK1's. It will be really bad to sign any more Rafale orders before signing this, we need to have production ecosystem to mass produce fighters first. We cannot solve the Pakistani and Chinese problem without it.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 14 Jul 2020 10:27

ramana wrote:How did the number 44 come about?

Last we heard it was 126 reduced to 36.
At most it would be another 36.

So 8 more for what?

Should be rationale for it and not pull it from the air.

It is only a twitter rumour. There are a lot of those floating around all the time. Most just made up by random handles.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 Jul 2020 14:42

You said it. They all believe there is a printing press churning out Euros and Dollars so we can buy whatever we want in the thousands.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Jul 2020 18:27

ramana wrote:How did the number 44 come about?

Last we heard it was 126 reduced to 36.
At most it would be another 36.

So 8 more for what?

Should be rationale for it and not pull it from the air.

The 44 number is not a confirmed number, but makes sense from an attrition perspective. 18 per squadron and the remaining 8 aircraft could serve as attrition replacements with 2 per squadron, divided among the 4 squadrons. In addition, both Hasimara and Ambala has infrastructure built for two squadrons each of the Rafale. A total fleet of 80 Rafales would also make financial sense considering the investments made in the first 36 deal.

Now that having being said, this tweet is just a rumour. There was an earlier tweet (from another twitter user) who said that the IAF will move ahead with the acquisition of 44 more Rafales by the end of June 2020 and submit that proposal to the MoD. Also False. Nothing confirmed.

The only thing we have to go on is from Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhaduria, who said in Oct 2019 that there is *NO* proposal to acquire another 36 Rafales. The 114 MRFA deal is still on the cards and Dassault will have to participate in the contest. It does not get more official than that.

Obviously this was prior to Galwan, COVID-19, Recession in the Global Economy, etc. But there is nothing to indicate *YET* that the IAF intends to move away from the 114 MRFA contest. And Boeing is stepping up her efforts to sell the F-15EX to the IAF and the F-18 Block III to the IN. Big Push by the Amreekis to sell a US bird - Boeing recently completed deliveries of all AH-64s and CH-47s to the IAF and put out a press release stating so.

From a common "engine" perspective (GE F414), the F-18 is great. I know this will likely never happen, but a Growler variant would be best. Obviously no money for 114 of them though. Even 24 of them would be nice. I don't see how 114 of any phoren bird is going to pan out.

And as I mentioned in an earlier post ---> I am waiting for the day to see a MRO facility for GE's F404 and F414 turbofans in India. That would be a nice addition to have considering the Mk1, Mk1A, Mk2 and even the first two AMCA units will have engines from GE. Great opportunity for GE.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 16 Jul 2020 11:59

Aditya_V wrote:
Mort Walker wrote: That's a given. Some 200 Tejas Mk1A by 2024 and 400 Mk2 by 2030.
Yes sir but we need the contracts to be signed for MK1A and more MK1's. It will be really bad to sign any more Rafale orders before signing this, we need to have production ecosystem to mass produce fighters first. We cannot solve the Pakistani and Chinese problem without it.

I agree. The order for 83 Mk1A should have been signed at the time of COVID-19 stimulus. I would have upped it to 200 to bring unit costs down and/or improve production capacity. The Tejas of all variants needs significant financial capital to both government and private companies.

Karan M wrote:You said it. They all believe there is a printing press churning out Euros and Dollars so we can buy whatever we want in the thousands.

India is sitting on $513.2 billion in Forex reserves. Place orders for 200 Tejas Mk1A by 2024 and get the 44 Rafales; and cancel the purchase of the 21 Mig-29 to replace with another dozen Su-30MKI.

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 18 Jul 2020 16:07

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 19 Jul 2020 08:57

Given the negativity Tejas is getting, we must but a load out for Tejas and compare cost of the munitions, I like the Rafale with MICA IR, Meteor, scalp etc. But it can be used only for some special missions. It is the Su 30MKI , Tejas etc. Which are going to do the bulk of the missions. US cannot have the F22 fleetwide we cannot have Rafale with its special weapons fleetwide.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 19 Jul 2020 20:46

Aditya, the goal is to incorporate desi weapons onto the Rafale and not to incorporate French weapons fleet wide.

Looking forward to the day when I see Astra Mk2 and BrahMos-NG on the Rafale. Click on link below and you see reference to both...

http://rafalenews.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html

pandyan · Post by **pandyan** » 20 Jul 2020 08:11

Rakesh Saar - there are 2 ways to sabotage - cost and desired performance.

Rafale deal also promised a working Kaveri engine on LCA.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 20 Jul 2020 13:55

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 20 Jul 2020 15:50

If Rafale is based at Ambala, they are about 300-400km from the LAC in Ladakh. No need to deploy them at Leh. Mig 29 will probably be on ORP at Leh.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 21 Jul 2020 21:23

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Jul 2020 21:31

Rakesh wrote:Aditya, the goal is to incorporate desi weapons onto the Rafale and not to incorporate French weapons fleet wide.

Looking forward to the day when I see Astra Mk2 and BrahMos-NG on the Rafale. Click on link below and you see reference to both...

http://rafalenews.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html

Yes, that's the goal. And will happen.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 22 Jul 2020 02:47

Slightly OT, but I don't like the way they're hyping up Rafale arrival, as if half a dozen Rafales will destroy the entire PAF and PLAAF overnight...

Forget fighting in a war, tomorrow even if some small technical glitch comes in the jet, the opposition & media will magnify it beyond proportions to create a picture that India got sub-standard jets for kickbacks...
I feel jingos (mainly Jingo journos) on social media (not here) need to tone down their excitement... Those jets are just silver bullets, nothing more nothing less...

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 23 Jul 2020 14:56

India to boost Rafale capabilities with HAMMER missiles under emergency order

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 723134530/

viveks · Post by **viveks** » 23 Jul 2020 18:46

That is just insane fire power

ashishvikas · Post by **ashishvikas** » 23 Jul 2020 18:54

https://twitter.com/hvtiaf/status/12862 ... 25728?s=19 ---> No! Am not particularly enthusiastic about imported fighters.

But an aircraft like IAF's Rafale can knock down the J-20, a hundred times over. The Chinese poster boy is good for posters. Better if they don't actually drop their experimental baby into real combat.

Rafale > J-20.

nam · Post by **nam** » 23 Jul 2020 19:02

MeshaVishwas wrote:India to boost Rafale capabilities with HAMMER missiles under emergency order

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 723134530/

Another emergency purchase. Just shows how under prepared we are in long range A2G category. The nonsense of having platform specific weapons.
Even the Paks have their Raad thing for the past decade and we getting Scalp now is considered some sort of revolution.

What is the 300KM ranged A2G weapon in Su30, that can be deployed in numbers?

It is now becoming very obvious that IAF has been preparing only for a fight with Pak. Al these 30-60KM weapons are fine for a battle with Pak.

Not for deep strikes with Chini, who can employ such A2G weapons in numbers.