VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

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Y I Patel
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Y I Patel » 12 Sep 2018 07:30

When Modi came to power, he had several alternatives to address the stalemated MRCA-1 and the growing crisis of depleting combat aircraft in IAF. To name just one, he could have chosen to scrap MRCA-1 right away and bought, say, 36 Su-MKI upgraded to Super Sukhoi standard as a stop gap measure. Please note - this is an example, not an endorsement of the Su-Su. The point being, there were alternatives which were being advocated by different groups within India, each with its own set of pros and opportunity costs.

By opting for this particular alternative, Modi not only made it personal to him by departing from established procurement process (viz MRCA 1), he also relinquished the biggest pressure point he had against France - the threat to walk out of the deal without buying a single aircraft. It is understandable to remember and talk about the desperate situation in the IAF, but easy to overlook that France had a lot riding on that deal as well. Dassault/Safran operate in a specific market segment; their own domestic market is shrinking and internationally they are facing stiff competition from other competitors. India is not only a huge defense products market, but also an attractive strategic partner. Last but not least, all other major producers were already salivating at the prospect of a cancelled deal.

So Modi had a strong hand. He traded it in when he made the choice, so now he is being asked to account for the opportunities lost and to articulate what tangible, lasting value this deal purchased for India. It is eminently reasonable to ask what the $8 Billion stop gap measure obtained to compensate for the opportunities lost by not pursuing other alternatives, notably alternatives that would have addressed IAF's long term needs as comprehensively as intended by MRCA 1. The intent of MRCA 1, after all, was to comprehensively address IAF needs and to also acquire lasting, tangible value through local manufacture in India. Yes, it did not work out. But the intent of MRCA 1 was valid and needed to survive its demise. It is not enough to argue that $8 billion got us an excellent platform to plug existing gaps, and that the money to be spent can be scrupulously accounted for through all the systems (publicized as well as secret) that come with the platform. Any major deal (especially one this expensive) is supposed to do just that: mega deals with Russia always came with unannounced quid pro quo, and India already has access to several best-in-class technologies from partners such as Israel. So in other words, it is easy to provide exact financial accounting for the 36 a/c deal, but how is that expense justified?

This is why the Kaveri engine help clause becomes important. Kaveri is a crown jewel that is also an NPA. It was incumbent on France to use this second chance to add value by going beyond the bare minimum of certifying the Kaveri engine. France could have improved the real Kaveri and made it a centerpiece of a follow-on longer term partnership. If they had done that, the efforts of the last two years would then have led to a comprehensive longer term partnership of great mutual benefit to both countries. Instead, they used the last two years on a scam to sell a repackaged M-88 to do essentially what I am saying, but without the real benefit of an improved Kaveri for India. And the saddest part is that the DRDO played an enabler in this scam.

Karan, thanks for the additional explanation on DRDO docs. But tell me this, how can there be an official record of something that did not fructify? We all hold it to be a truth that PVNR tried to test nukes when he was in power, but was stopped from doing so. Do we have official records to support that? No, only media accounts from reliable sources. I submit that there are reliable sources to support what happened, and I hope what I said above clarifies why I am mad at the French for merely sticking to the wording of the agreement instead of honoring the spirit of accommodation that Modi accorded them by putting his neck on the line with this deal.


We live in Kalyug, and rough political discourse is the accepted norm and even a sign of political health. Yes even this heaven on earth called USA has politicians at each others throats, though I gather Canada is spared by this otherwise global scourge. A lot of the criticism may be politically motivated, but that's par for the course. Any Indian leader in a similar situation should be called to account for such substantive decisions. But, it is important to note, asking hard questions does not automatically equate to opposition and not all who speak up against the deal wish to see Modi weakened.

The reality is that political discourse impinging national security and international relations has strong undercurrents. International deals are supposed to be win-win. Modi has not only survived much more adverse situations, he is also uniquely talented at turning challenges into weapons to crush his opponents. But any political damage to him will redound badly on the French. If the French are seen to gain at India's expense, even Modi will not give them the same level of trust as he did last time.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Philip » 12 Sep 2018 10:48

Some sound advice.It is fine for retd. service officers to voice their opinion ,but serving officers are better advised to let the politicos slug it out,or they run the risk of becoming scapegoats.Look at the case of a former chief embroiled in the AW scam.

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/opinion ... fight.html


Serving air marshals join the Rafale dogfight
Published Sep 11, 2018, 12:23 am ISTUpdated Sep 11, 2018, 12:23 am IST

The Rafale was chosen after a gruelling process to pick a fighter out of six contenders for the original 126 multi-role combat aircraft requirement.
The decision to buy 36 Rafales was made without consulting the IAF. (Photo: Representational | AP)

We have a tradition in India, actually a discipline, that officers in uniform don’t take part even in political discussions, let alone debates, which are mostly about scoring points. But we recently saw that tradition breached when two senior Indian Air Force officers spoke to television channels about the ongoing contretemps over the purchase of 36 Rafale fighters from France’s Dassault Aviation. The IAF vice-chief, Air Marshal S.B. Deo, an accomplished officer who designs and builds smart weapons in his front yard for a hobby, speaking to the media on the sidelines of a recent Centre for Air Power Studies and Confederation of Indian Industries seminarm said: “Those criticising the deal must understand the procurement procedure. It is a beautiful aircraft. It is a very capable aircraft and we are waiting to fly it.”

The Rafale was chosen after a gruelling process to pick a fighter out of six contenders for the original 126 multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA) requirement. That has now been truncated to just 36 completely built-up units. There is no question raised about the quality and capability of the Rafale. But as far as the procurement procedure is concerned, I doubt if the air marshal himself understands it, for strange are the ways of governments. But it nevertheless was a well-crafted statement and he kept within the folds of the envelope those in uniform are required to be within. But his junior, the deputy air chief, Air Marshal Raghunath Nambiar, speaking to reporters at the eighth heli-power seminar, said: “Those who are claiming such numbers, I think they are misinformed and probably not aware of the facts that are known to us in the Indian Air Force. We are the ones who were very much part of the negotiations with the French government. And we have the facts with us. And I don’t think what is being alleged matches up with the facts at all. I can tell you that the Rafale that we have gone for is substantially lower than the price that was on the table in 2008.” He is talking rubbish.

The decision to buy 36 Rafales was made without consulting the IAF. Even the then foreign secretary, travelling with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, didn’t know. Perhaps only Mr Modi, national security adviser Ajit Doval and Anil Ambani knew. But more important than that is that Air Marshal Nambiar was imputing, wittingly or unwittingly, that the previous price fixed was substantially inflated. Air Marshal Nambiar even ventured the figure now as being “40 per cent cheaper”. What made him put himself squarely in the centre of a political fracas is probably best known to him.

Now here are the facts as known to lesser mortals.

The IAF was hoping for a minimum of four squadrons of Rafale fighters, but the Narendra Modi government kept the initial order down to 36 fighters in a flyaway condition for 7.8 billion euros or $9.13 billion (@1 euro=$1.17). Commenting on this, the officer who headed the intensive selection process that led to the choice of Rafale, Air Marshal M. Matheswaran (Retd), pointedly observed: “The original MRCA tender was cleared for $10.5 billion for 126 aircraft”.

In the Air Staff Qualitative Requirements (ASQR) provided by the Indian Air Force, there were 13 “India-Specific Enhancements” demanded by India in the 126-aircraft MMRCA contract. These included radar enhancements, helmet-mounted display, towed decoy system, low-band jammer and the ability to operate from high-altitude airfields.

That these were the same for the 36 Rafales ordered by PM Modi is made clear by the joint statement of April 10, 2015 issued by French President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which reads: “…that the aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration as has been tested and approved by Indian Air Force…”

There is much noise about the huge costs at which the 36 Rafales have been contracted for. The comparable costs of the 126 and 36 deals can only be read when all the costs are factored in.

The cost of the new deal for 36 Rafale fighters is 3.42 billion euros as the cost of the bare planes; 1.8 billion euros for associated supplies for infrastructure and support; 1.7 billion euros for India-specific changes to the planes; and 353 million euros for “performance-based logistics support”; with the weapons package of 700 million euros being the extra. So take 1,053 million euros out and you have the comparable cost, which means it is 7.1 billion euros. It appears the fiddle is in the India-specific costs, additional infrastructure and support, and performance logistics support.

The IAF-deployed “spokesmen” have even been justifying the Rafale purchase because the package includes the Meteor air-to-air missile. The Meteor is the new gamechanger in the air. It increases the “no-escape” zone for a hostile aircraft by about three times. The Meteor is an active radar-guided beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM) developed by MBDA. It will offer a multi-shot capability against long-range manoeuvring targets in a heavy electronic counter-measures (ECM) environment with range in excess of 100 km (62 mi). According to the manufacturer, in a head-on engagement, the Meteor provides a no-escape zone three times greater than a conventionally-powered missile.

But the Meteor missile is not exclusive to the Rafale. The fact is that the Swedish Gripfen has now been integrated with the Meteor and open sources indicate the IAF too is contemplating integrating the SU-30MKI and the Meteor. Even the Tejas can be fitted out with Meteors. So we are not buying the Rafale for the Meteor. Besides, missile purchases can never be part of the capital cost of a fighter. Since they are expendable, and presumably meant to be expendable, they should be part of revenue expenditure.

A few months after Narendra Modi and then French President Francois Hollande signed the deal, our old friend Anil Ambani signed a deal with Julie Gayet, Mr Hollande’s actress-girlfriend, on January 24, 2016 to jointly produce a film.

Talk about sweetheart deals and sweetening a deal. The French have a long and well-honed tradition of dealing with African and Arab tinpot dictators and their leaders, a long line from Giscard D’Estaing to Nicholas Sarkozy, have been known to help themselves a bit on the side too.

This should lend further credence to that. According to the ministry of company affairs, Reliance Defence Ltd was registered on March 28, 2015. On April 11, 2015 Reliance Defence Ltd becomes the main partner to ensure the 50 per cent offset clause, under which Dassault and other related French parties would invest half the contract value back in the country.

Government officials insist that 74 per cent of the offsets will be exported, earning 3 billion euros for the country in the next seven years. The experience with all offsets suggests that this is far-fetched. It has not happened so far.

Incidentally Anil Ambani’s flagship company, Reliance Communications Ltd. (stylised as RCom), just defaulted on a major foreign loan and its future ability to fulfil its Rafale offsets commitment should now be in doubt.

Recently, IDBI Bank filed an insolvency application before the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) seeking debt resolution of Reliance Naval and Engineering, the shipbuilding Anil Ambani company, under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. Yet Reliance Defence is gung-ho about fulfilling its Rafale-related obligations. It’s not without reason that Anil Ambani is believed to be close to Prime Minister Modi and to some in his close circle.

Make no mistake. The Rafale is a top class fourth-generation fighter. Probably even the best there is. The political dogfight is over the costs. The IAF should be happy that it will soon operate the Rafale and should seek to persuade the politicians that it needs more. The air marshals are best advised to stay away from dogfights they are not trained and qualified for.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby pankajs » 12 Sep 2018 10:55

If I start quoting "selectively" I too can prove that all Russian maal is Junk.

And, before anyone busts a gasket note the emphasis on "selectively".

Also, Mr Guruswamy should have followed his own sage advice and stayed away form this issue that has now become a political football unless he claims to be a political partisan in which case he should have disclosed his affiliation. "Analyst" "commentator", etc labels does not much of an impression with me.
Last edited by pankajs on 12 Sep 2018 11:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby pankajs » 12 Sep 2018 11:32

Philip wrote:Some sound advice. {From a very dishonest person. Btw, Philip saar, I don't mean it for you but the great and all knowing Mahatma Guruswamy} It is fine for retd. service officers to voice their opinion ,but serving officers are better advised to let the politicos slug it out,or they run the risk of becoming scapegoats.Look at the case of a former chief embroiled in the AW scam.

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/opinion ... fight.html
Serving air marshals join the Rafale dogfight
Published Sep 11, 2018, 12:23 am ISTUpdated Sep 11, 2018, 12:23 am IST

<snip>
[/b]Now here are the facts as known to lesser mortals. {This is where it gets interesting. The Mahatma is assuring us that he is only stating FACTS and nothing but facts and ALL of it. What a great soul! Worthy of being called a Mahatma on the level of Mahatma Gandhi. I will eagerly wait for his book titled " My experiments with Lies Truth" on the line of the book by Mahatma Gandhi.}

The IAF was hoping for a minimum of four squadrons of Rafale fighters, but the Narendra Modi government kept the initial order down to 36 fighters in a flyaway condition for 7.8 billion euros or $9.13 billion (@1 euro=$1.17). Commenting on this, the officer who headed the intensive selection process that led to the choice of Rafale, Air Marshal M. Matheswaran (Retd), pointedly observed: “The original MRCA tender was cleared for $10.5 billion for 126 aircraft”. {This guy is a real smart crook ...oops cookie. He claims to be all knowing having appropriated a lot of high sounding titles for himself. 1) He does not directly come out with "his narrative reinforcing" cost of the deal but quotes someone else i.e. he has left a escape hatch open if cornered with data/questions/news reports from that era. He was after-all only quoting someone who seems highly qualified to opine on the matter. 2) He also does not provide any context for the quote i.e. was that quote from the tender/RFI/RFP document, after the ball was set rolling, after the down select but before negotiation, after the negotiations with the French began in earnest or was it the final cost on the table when the Modi government took office. See, depending on when that quote was made one will reach different conclusions. Did I not say this cookie was smart? ... Really SMART. If this is not political trope masquerading as honest analysis then I don't know when one is.}

So far all I have put on the table are mere conjectures. So now lets get down to "proving" that all RUSSIAN maal is JUNK ....

Seriously, I was just kidding .... Please don't take offense Philip. The last statement was a joke. My remaining post will NOT be on why all Russian maal is junk. I promise.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 467237.cms
India closes in on $20 billion Rafale deal {Jul 16, 2014}

:shock: $20 billion .... and this was in news and our most qualified and smartest analyst did not know what was all over Indian media. A duffer like me recalled as soon as I reached that line. Imagine a duffer like myself. :rotfl:
Not a smart guy like you Philip saaru.

But this was AFTER the cursed Mudi too office you say. Ok lets go back further in time.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/north/s ... 2012-02-01
Dassault Rafale deal: New fighter is good but price is worrying [February 1, 2012]
Already the original MMRCA deal, which was supposed to be for $ 10.4 billion, has ballooned to $ 20 billion- plus for 126 aircrafts. The final bill will only be known after the price negotiation process is done.
Tauba! $20 billion already by the beginning of 2012. :shock:

See Philip saaru, how early in the process we got to know that the price was most definitely NOT $10.5 billion. Of course, you being as smart as the great Guruswamy you are least bothered with such nuances except to quote selectively and without context.

Only a duffer like myself will laboriously recall such quirky details which are not so important in the grand scheme of things. A mere footnote.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby pankajs » 12 Sep 2018 12:18

Btw, my brain did not register one word even after multiple reads of the quoted portion of that crook Guruswamy's fart, that adds another point in his defense.

That does not change the overall thrust of my arguments that this is a political fart and he is being "selective" in his facts. I could have reworked my points to account for that but I did not. Instead I am writing anther post. I left the above post as it is because it actually proves my point.

If someone who is as skeptical as myself could miss that word a neutral or political partisan would certainly miss it and use $10.5 billion for 126 plane as a benchmark to evaluate the deal done by that cursed Mudi. That is in fact the whole intent of that fart i.e. to nail that number firmly in the head of its readers and it will become the benchmark for evaluating all data presented after that. This is the same psychological trick used by merchants and vendors when they throw out an outlandish number. Even when the customers realize that the number is outlandish it becomes the benchmark from all further negotiation.

Hopefully someone will spot that omission on my part.


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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby pankajs » 12 Sep 2018 13:23

http://www.claws.in/1366/mmrca-deal-for ... ibber.html
MMRCA Deal For 36 Rafale Fighters: A Game Changer or a Blunder [April 16, 2015]
It was anticipated that after conclusion of contract and commercial negotiations, the contract would be signed by March 2013. However with the Defence Budget for FY 2012-13 having already been exhausted, the conclusion of the contract got delayed. Also due to an impending change in the government in India, the same was further delayed. This delay resulted in M/s Dassault Aviation expressing their inability to hold their price, which from the estimated cost of US $ 12 Billion in 2007 was raised over 100% to US $28-30 Billion approx in Jan 2014. Another hitch that occurred during the course of negotiations was that neither Dassault Aviation nor HAL, which was to produce the Rafale Jets in India as part of ToT agreement, were willing to issue written guarantees on delivery schedules, a condition which the MoD insisted upon before signing the contract. Dassault remained unwilling to be held liable for the 108 Rafales to be manufactured under licence by HAL. These two issues of pricing and the guarantees resulted into a continued deadlock in the contract negotiations.

Tauba! :eek: $28-30 Billion approx in Jan 2014!! :shock: BEFORE that cursed Mudi too office! :(

Where is Philip saaru when you need his mahatma level comments.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby pankajs » 12 Sep 2018 13:38

Now, note that the above was from April 16. 2015, well into the that cursed Mudi's tenure. I decided to dig further to see if we had any reference/news/opinion quoting that number from BEFORE that cursed Mudi taking over. One should not take anyone word's just based on their self attested titles or affiliation to any recognized office or Institution. At least one should make an effort to triangulate to whatever extent possible.

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-d ... ty-1957107
dna exclusive: 100% price escalation on Rafale fighter aircraft to Rs 1.75 lakh crore likely to dent IAF's strike capability [Updated: Jan 26, 2014, 07:02 AM IST]
In January 2012, when Rafale was declared the winner, its price was quoted between $60-65 million (Rs373-Rs400 crore). A top defence ministry official said the price of a fighter jet made by Dassault could now cost $120 million (Rs746 crore). The second bidder, Eurofighter, had quoted $80-85 million (Rs497-Rs528 crore).

The price hike would mean that the deal would cost India nothing less than $28-30 billion (Rs1.75 lakh crore-Rs1.86 lakh crore),” said an Indian Air Force (IAF) official, who is privy to discussions of the cost negotiation committee.

The defence ministry headed by AK Antony has developed cold feet after the cost doubled compared to the original estimate. With the general elections just months away, Antony is unsure about the fate of the deal, a defence ministry official said. “As the negotiations continue, the cost is spiralling out of hand. It is a major worry,” he said.

An IAF official said that in 2007, when the tender was floated, the cost of the programme was $12 billion (Rs42,000 crore). When the lowest bidder was declared in January 2012, the cost of the deal shot up to $18 billion (Rs90,000 crore).

If mahatma Guruswamy was not a political partisan, the first number he would have quoted was the offer that was on the table when the baton was passed on by UPA to that cursed Mudi.

May be he wasn't privy to such details but he could have certainly have gone with the "lowest bidder" offer from January 2012 at least.

This mahatma has turned out to be a political partisan and crook of the first order given to using cheap street level selling tactics.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby suryag » 12 Sep 2018 14:44

Mod note - have cleaned up the thread, any further useless posts will invite an instant ban.

Philip
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Philip » 12 Sep 2018 18:46

Pl.I am merely the postman not the author!
My take on the piece was simply that serving sr. service officers should not become the bacon in the sandwich in political spats!

Quite right.The delay in sealing the deal saw the French up their price considerably.The bone of contention was Dassault's refusal to guarantee HAL built fighters.The haggling over this resulted in the inordinate delay in sealing the deal. There are some undercurrents as to why HAL was scorned by Dassault,( did they want another inexperienced entity or was there a firang hand at work wanting to sabotage the deal?) but this is soupcon, conjecture not supported by hard facts.

However, the fact remains that the deal then became much more expensive than originally bargained for.At this point the GOI in power should've looked at other cost-effective options as MP openly said.To him extra MKIs would suffice. They're also half the cost of a Rafale and the entire infrastructure, etc. already exists , availability has also gone up after concerted effort at maintenance, etc. and now over 70% of the bird is made from locally sourced raw material.

After all it is the numbers of aircraft and sqds. that primarily matter as however good an aircraft is, in a 2- front war it can't be at two places simultaneously.The last IAF GS exercise showed estimates of losses ( Ramana's post) after 3 days at over 150 aircraft! It is financially impossible therefore for Rafales to replace our hundreds of retiring MIGs, it would beggar the defence budget and is as highly optimistic as the IN's wish for a 65K CV.

ACM Dhanoa has just said that the Raffy and S-400s are essential for a 2-front war, but the simple truth is that at
current Rafale costs, the aircraft as stated is unaffordable. The IAF essentially requires replacements for the MIGs.The aircraft supposed to replace them was the LCA.Why it has had such a laboured birth is another tale but the bird has just entered production ( in India) unlike any of the MRCA contestants who will have to set up such facilities taking several years.
This should be the top priority, in accelerating LCA development and production which surely in 2 to 3 years time will produce results if a concentrated effort is made.That is the timeframe for the first arrivals of any firang bird even if a decision is taken today.The IAF have to learn to be cost- concious and not keep on drumming the same tune " only Rafale".They must present to the GOI
simple alternatives and options not the MRCA-2 redux which will waste time and money and result in yet more knee- jerk acquisitions.

No one is decrying the decision in selecting the Rafale but the escalated cost.Between the UPA's delay and the PM's decision for the 36 ordered, the issues remains grey.
I don't know why we either did not fix the French on the price with minimum escalation with the threat of alternatives in hand, or sorted out/ limited the extent of HAL involvement as we've been great assemblers of aircraft over decades.The answers may be lost in miles of red tape.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Kartik » 12 Sep 2018 20:58

Mohan Guruswamy articles need not be taken at face value. We know where his political affiliation lies.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby SaiK » 12 Sep 2018 21:32

Rafale is the best thing to have happened this way.. blessing in disguise, for all that kangrez had done. Going forward, Rafale experience will feed lot of inputs into Mk2. Watch for this.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby kit » 12 Sep 2018 21:41

pankajs wrote:
Philip wrote:Some sound advice. {From a very dishonest person. Btw, Philip saar, I don't mean it for you but the great and all knowing Mahatma Guruswamy} It is fine for retd. service officers to voice their opinion ,but serving officers are better advised to let the politicos slug it out,or they run the risk of becoming scapegoats.Look at the case of a former chief embroiled in the AW scam.

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/opinion ... fight.html
Serving air marshals join the Rafale dogfight
Published Sep 11, 2018, 12:23 am ISTUpdated Sep 11, 2018, 12:23 am IST

<snip>
[/b]Now here are the facts as known to lesser mortals. {This is where it gets interesting. The Mahatma is assuring us that he is only stating FACTS and nothing but facts and ALL of it. What a great soul! Worthy of being called a Mahatma on the level of Mahatma Gandhi. I will eagerly wait for his book titled " My experiments with Lies Truth" on the line of the book by Mahatma Gandhi.}

The IAF was hoping for a minimum of four squadrons of Rafale fighters, but the Narendra Modi government kept the initial order down to 36 fighters in a flyaway condition for 7.8 billion euros or $9.13 billion (@1 euro=$1.17). Commenting on this, the officer who headed the intensive selection process that led to the choice of Rafale, Air Marshal M. Matheswaran (Retd), pointedly observed: “The original MRCA tender was cleared for $10.5 billion for 126 aircraft”. {This guy is a real smart crook ...oops cookie. He claims to be all knowing having appropriated a lot of high sounding titles for himself. 1) He does not directly come out with "his narrative reinforcing" cost of the deal but quotes someone else i.e. he has left a escape hatch open if cornered with data/questions/news reports from that era. He was after-all only quoting someone who seems highly qualified to opine on the matter. 2) He also does not provide any context for the quote i.e. was that quote from the tender/RFI/RFP document, after the ball was set rolling, after the down select but before negotiation, after the negotiations with the French began in earnest or was it the final cost on the table when the Modi government took office. See, depending on when that quote was made one will reach different conclusions. Did I not say this cookie was smart? ... Really SMART. If this is not political trope masquerading as honest analysis then I don't know when one is.}

So far all I have put on the table are mere conjectures. So now lets get down to "proving" that all RUSSIAN maal is JUNK ....

Seriously, I was just kidding .... Please don't take offense Philip. The last statement was a joke. My remaining post will NOT be on why all Russian maal is junk. I promise.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 467237.cms
India closes in on $20 billion Rafale deal {Jul 16, 2014}

:shock: $20 billion .... and this was in news and our most qualified and smartest analyst did not know what was all over Indian media. A duffer like me recalled as soon as I reached that line. Imagine a duffer like myself. :rotfl:
Not a smart guy like you Philip saaru.

But this was AFTER the cursed Mudi too office you say. Ok lets go back further in time.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/north/s ... 2012-02-01
Dassault Rafale deal: New fighter is good but price is worrying [February 1, 2012]
Already the original MMRCA deal, which was supposed to be for $ 10.4 billion, has ballooned to $ 20 billion- plus for 126 aircrafts. The final bill will only be known after the price negotiation process is done.
Tauba! $20 billion already by the beginning of 2012. :shock:

See Philip saaru, how early in the process we got to know that the price was most definitely NOT $10.5 billion. Of course, you being as smart as the great Guruswamy you are least bothered with such nuances except to quote selectively and without context.

Only a duffer like myself will laboriously recall such quirky details which are not so important in the grand scheme of things. A mere footnote.


Wrong information peddled as journalism should be sued

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby souravB » 12 Sep 2018 22:10

If anybody has any confusion, any doubt about Rafale procurement, please watch this.
The person is the Head of the Contract Negotiation Committee, and member of all the other Rafale procurement committee.



Clears the doubt about
  • Why 36?
  • Why HAL was not chosen?
  • How Chhota Bhai fits in all this?
  • Why MMRCA 1.0 was scrapped?

My Take: I honestly pity the politicos that played in this dirty game knowingly or oblivious of the facts just to score some votes or brownie points. This clarification seemed like a plea to those people that "Please do not hamper whatever little capability growth we are getting". I felt ashamed when I understood that IAF had to come out and say something just to defend its acquisition.

My Opinion: There should be a JPC formed to investigate why RaGa lied on the floor of Parliament, which is a capital offense.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby SaiK » 12 Sep 2018 23:42

rafale == gust, rafaël == ?

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 12 Sep 2018 23:45

Y I Patel wrote:When Modi came to power, he had several alternatives to address the stalemated MRCA-1 and the growing crisis of depleting combat aircraft in IAF. To name just one, he could have chosen to scrap MRCA-1 right away and bought, say, 36 Su-MKI upgraded to Super Sukhoi standard as a stop gap measure. Please note - this is an example, not an endorsement of the Su-Su. The point being, there were alternatives which were being advocated by different groups within India, each with its own set of pros and opportunity costs.

There is a MMRCA 3.0 contest going on right now for 110 fighters. Do you think the IAF would be open to inducting 110 Su-30MKIs?

Each fighter serves a purpose. The original contract in 2001 called for 126 Mirage 2000s. The MKI variant of the Su-30MKI was yet to be inducted, but the K variant of the Su-30 was in service with No 24 Hunting Hawks Sqn (since 1997). When you compare the Su-30MKI variant to the Mirage 2000, the former trumps the latter on payload capability, on combat range, close in combat, BVR combat....the list goes on. But still the IAF insisted on 126 Mirage 2000s and not 126 additional Su-30MKIs. Why? :)

In May 2014 (when Modi became Prime Minister), the Govt could not explore any other alternative for the following reasons;

- Negotiations were going on with Dassault at the time and the new Govt took up from where the old Govt left off.
- Then Defence Minister A K Anthony wrote in the file that the decision on the Rafale purchase is being left to the next Govt.
- It was only when the NDA Govt took over the negotiations that they realized what a pooch screw up the UPA Govt did.
- There was no way 126 Rafales could have been afforded at $10 billion. See pankajs' post on this page for that.

Now could the Govt could have gone in for additional Su-30MKIs - as then Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar suggested? But that proposal would have gotten shot down very easily at Air HQ for the same reasons I explained above. In fact till very recently, the Air Force was dead against inducting additional Su-30MKI squadrons. In 2014, the IAF had the luxury of telling the MoD that they can wait for Rafale negotations to complete. Fast forward four years later (two MiG-27 squadrons have been retired and a couple of MiG-21 squadrons as well). The situation is now dicey and Air HQ is now beginning to examine the proposal for 2 additional squadrons. Refer to Livefist for that info. Shiv Aroor has written an article on it and is there in the Su-30MKI dhaaga on BRF.

Y I Patel wrote:By opting for this particular alternative, Modi not only made it personal to him by departing from established procurement process (viz MRCA 1), he also relinquished the biggest pressure point he had against France - the threat to walk out of the deal without buying a single aircraft. It is understandable to remember and talk about the desperate situation in the IAF, but easy to overlook that France had a lot riding on that deal as well. Dassault/Safran operate in a specific market segment; their own domestic market is shrinking and internationally they are facing stiff competition from other competitors. India is not only a huge defense products market, but also an attractive strategic partner. Last but not least, all other major producers were already salivating at the prospect of a cancelled deal.

France could afford a walk out of the deal. Can the IAF? That is the real question. See below...

The Rafale's biggest stigma was that there was not a single foreign buyer for the aircraft. Not one! Then February 2015 rolled along and Egypt became the first customer. Later on 30 April 2015, Qatar became the second international customer for the Rafale. So France no longer had a prestige issue on the Rafale. Guess who screwed the leverage India had? The Congress onlee.

From 31 January 2012 (date of Eurofighter Typhoon being dropped from the contest) till May 2014 (when they left office), AK Antony never came to a successful completion of the deal. He hummed and hawed. As the joke goes in North Block, the only good thing that AK Antony did was defend the furniture in the MoD. He had 2+ years to finalize the contract, but he did not. He was obsessed with maintaining his squeaky clean image and insisted on local production, which has been proven time & time again achieves little for India.

We learnt nothing of value with MiG-21 production, MiG-27 production, Jaguar production and Su-30MKI production. And the same would have been true of the Rafale. Also, just like Boeing, Dassault balked at the idea of guaranteeing a HAL built Rafale. At that stage, they should have bought the planes off the shelf and gotten offsets via components (which is what the Modi Govt has done with the 36 aircraft).

In April 2015, when Prime Minister Modi visited then French President Francois Hollande he requested the delivery of 36 aircraft (a number given to him by the Indian Air Force and not a number that he pulled out of thin air!). At that stage, negotiations had to begin anew, as the old contract was no longer workable. Defence Minister Parrikar even mentioned that. But what the Congress failed to do, the BJP did. In a year-and-a-half, a deal was signed between France and India for 36 aircraft.

Y I Patel wrote:This is why the Kaveri engine help clause becomes important. Kaveri is a crown jewel that is also an NPA. It was incumbent on France to use this second chance to add value by going beyond the bare minimum of certifying the Kaveri engine. France could have improved the real Kaveri and made it a centerpiece of a follow-on longer term partnership. If they had done that, the efforts of the last two years would then have led to a comprehensive longer term partnership of great mutual benefit to both countries. Instead, they used the last two years on a scam to sell a repackaged M-88 to do essentially what I am saying, but without the real benefit of an improved Kaveri for India. And the saddest part is that the DRDO played an enabler in this scam.

Your entire premise above is based on media reports from France and India, that Snecma-Safran attempted to repackage a M88 for the Tejas. That premise of yours has been disproven beyond doubt. You can argue that for the rest of eternity, but the 2017 DRDO Report - an official Govt document - states otherwise. So you are entitled to your opinion, but you are not permitted to pass off your opinion as a fact. And when the 2018 DRDO Report comes out, one will see an update on the Kaveri program.

Y I Patel wrote:Karan, thanks for the additional explanation on DRDO docs. But tell me this, how can there be an official record of something that did not fructify? We all hold it to be a truth that PVNR tried to test nukes when he was in power, but was stopped from doing so. Do we have official records to support that? No, only media accounts from reliable sources. I submit that there are reliable sources to support what happened, and I hope what I said above clarifies why I am mad at the French for merely sticking to the wording of the agreement instead of honoring the spirit of accommodation that Modi accorded them by putting his neck on the line with this deal.

That is an apple-and-oranges comparison. Secondly, you do not have access to the wording of the agreement signed in Sept 2016 on the Rafale deal. Neither do you have access to the number of offset agreements signed as well, but especially with regards to Snecma-Safran's involvement. So on what basis are you mad at the French for? On a media report? Seriously?

Y I Patel wrote:We live in Kalyug, and rough political discourse is the accepted norm and even a sign of political health. Yes even this heaven on earth called USA has politicians at each others throats, though I gather Canada is spared by this otherwise global scourge. A lot of the criticism may be politically motivated, but that's par for the course. Any Indian leader in a similar situation should be called to account for such substantive decisions. But, it is important to note, asking hard questions does not automatically equate to opposition and not all who speak up against the deal wish to see Modi weakened.

But you must ask the right, informed questions - to *PROVE* that there is a scam - which unfortunately neither Rahul Gandhi or You have been able to ask.

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/10 ... 3743337472 ---> Been saying this from Day 1. While there *ARE* legitimate questions on the Rafale deal, basic errors of this kind betray lack of understanding, and therefore threatens to throw into question the quality of the allegations.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 12 Sep 2018 23:46

SaiK wrote:rafale == gust, rafaël == ?

French word for Squall

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 12 Sep 2018 23:48

Y I Patel wrote: So in other words, it is easy to provide exact financial accounting for the 36 a/c deal, but how is that expense justified?

The Indian Air Force - which knows better than you, me and everyone on this forum - has answered your query....

Indian Air Force Launches 10-Point Defence Of Rafale Deal
https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018/09 ... -deal.html

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/1 ... 6526984192 ---> Indian Air Force fires 10 Rafale missiles at Rahul Gandhi. Massive embarrassment for Congress as IAF officer leading counter-strike previously led Rafale negotiations under UPA tenure. Will this fuel even more politics?

https://twitter.com/manupubby/status/10 ... 6833335296 ---> If there were any doubts that Rafale is the front runner of the new competition to build fighter jets in India, this 'endorsement' by IAF should shed some light.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 12 Sep 2018 23:53

Y I Patel wrote: So in other words, it is easy to provide exact financial accounting for the 36 a/c deal, but how is that expense justified?

Another one for you Y I Patel....

IAF Chief *JUSTIFIES* government decision to buy Rafale jets
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 778737.cms

"The high-tech fighters like Rafale are needed because medium-tech fighters like Tejas alone cannot do. IAF is investing heavily in Tejas, looking at 12 squadrons of Tejas Mark-2 after first 123 Mark-1A jets," Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa said.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Philip » 13 Sep 2018 01:14

The ACM's positive note on the LCA Mk-2 is most heartening, but a huge focussed time-bound effort is reqd. from the ADA/ HAL to deliver the Mk-2 asap otherwise by 2030 it will be obsolete when the first 6th-gen. birds start appearing.By 2030 Tejas production should've been completed.Secondly the costs should be held in check.The official news that its high cost, even more than a firang F-16, was to be scrutinised by an investigating team, is a worrying matter as it was supposed to have become the cheapest light fighter flying.

There is going to be little chance of building Rafales over here since HAL has already been given the thumbs down.Therefore if any more Raffys are found affordable,
they should be bought outright but with strict assuarances of support and spares throughout its lifespan, costing included, in a carefully drawn contract
that guarantees our interests unlike some other contracts
poorly drafted by the MOD like the Scorpene.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Sumeet » 13 Sep 2018 03:48

Is (2.7 x) cost escalation of building Rafale in India by HAL and the fact that Dassault is not going to make any guarantee for Rafale manufactured by HAL is the reason HAL is a no go for bulk manufacturing of Rafale in India ?

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Cybaru » 13 Sep 2018 07:10

I dont thik it is 2.7 times the cost of the plane. The manpower component would be 2.7 times what it would be in france. It will take some portion of the cost higher not the total price. Manpower will be a small portion of the whole price of the plane.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby chetak » 13 Sep 2018 11:59

---- del ----
Last edited by Rakesh on 14 Sep 2018 03:01, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: How is this related to the Rafale?

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby chetak » 13 Sep 2018 19:38

Manu Pubby Verified account @manupubby

When the #RafaleDeal was being negotiated under the #UPA regime, Mukesh Ambani's company was key offsets partner.

Tainted firm whose promotor is linked to Vadra also applied pressure.

The full Rafale offsets saga.


Image

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 14 Sep 2018 02:56

For anyone who believes that the Congress Party is doing yeoman service for the country on the Rafale deal.

https://twitter.com/amitmalviya/status/ ... 2201082880 ----> Congress distances itself from Tehseen Poonawalla’s PIL on Rafale. This clearly means Congress knows that it’s allegations on Rafale are *WRONG* and it’s intention is to just politicize the issue.

https://twitter.com/muglikar_/status/10 ... 7146013696 ---> Tehseen, inspired by his Boss RaGa, has dug a grave for the Indian National Congress. If over excited judiciary takes ur this PIL, take it in writing that everyone in the country will know UPA plan had higher price and greater life cycle cost. Congress should be out of power for next 50 yrs. :lol:

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 14 Sep 2018 03:08

Defence Minister Sitharaman is truly among the best Defence Ministers India has ever had! Kudos to her!

Rafale deal affected because state-run HAL was in poor shape under UPA: Sitharaman
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... O6BmL.html

Negotiations for procuring 126 Rafale jets under the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government failed because state-run aerospace company Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) didn’t have the capability to produce the aircraft in India in collaboration with French company Dassault Aviation, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Thursday. Sitharaman said A K Antony, who was defence minister in the UPA government, made an unprecedented intervention in 2013 when the cost negotiation committee was finalising the deal but that put the final nail in the coffin. Dassault Aviation, after rounds of negotiations with HAL, felt that the cost of jets will escalate significantly if they were to be produced in India, she said during an interaction with PTI editors and reporters at the news agency’s headquarters in Delhi. “Dassault could not progress in the negotiations with HAL because if the aircraft were to be produced in India, a guarantee for the product to be produced was to be given. It is a big ticket item and the IAF (Indian Air Force) would want the guarantee for the jets. HAL was in no position to give the guarantee,” she said.

Sitharaman said the weapon systems, avionics and other key add-ons to the Rafale aircraft, expected to be delivered beginning September 2019, will be “much superior” than that negotiated by the UPA government, and her government is getting the planes for 9% cheaper than what was earlier agreed upon. The UPA government started negotiating with French Dassault Aviation to buy 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) in 2012. The plan was for Dassault Aviation to supply 18 Rafale jets in fly-away condition while 108 aircraft were to be manufactured in India by the company along with HAL. However, the deal could not be sealed. The Congress Party, which led the UPA government, has asked the government to explain why HAL was not involved in the new deal.

Sitharaman said the UPA-era deal collapsed, as HAL did not have the capability to produce 108 aircraft in India. “Even during negotiation with HAL, Dassault felt that the cost with which the HAL will produce will be far higher than the aircraft produced in France. That was the reality,” she said. “Why could not the then defence minister say that we will pump in all the required resources into the HAL. He could have done it. That was not done,” Sitharaman said, adding that the current government was initiating steps to strengthen the company. In 2016, the Modi government signed a government-to-government deal with France for purchase of 36 Rafale jets at a cost of Rs 58,000 crore. The Congress has been alleging irregularities in the deal.

Rebutting charges of corruption in the deal, the defence minister also asserted that people of the country have put a closure on the issue as they trust Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “There is a trust in the prime minister. He is not going to be corrupt. So with all this, I think mentally, people of India have reached a closure on it, saying there is no corruption here,” she said. Sitharaman ruled out calling the opposition parties for a meeting to allay their concerns over the Rafale deal, saying they are “throwing an allegation” without any basis as well as showing no concern for operational preparedness of the air force. She said the Congress was running short of issues and corruption was a plank on which it utterly failed. “It is one of the cleanest governments India has ever seen. On corruption, the Congress is very frustrated. The party will have to learn from this government. “I am saying this with a certain sense of confidence and not arrogance. The defence ministry is being run without any middleman and in a transparent way. We have proved that defence procurement can happen without middlemen,” she said.

On Antony’s intervention, she said he held back the file at a stage where he did not have any role to play. However, she did not elaborate on reasons for Antony’s action. The Congress has repeatedly criticised the deal for the 36 Rafale jets, alleging that the government was procuring each aircraft at a cost of over Rs 1,670 crore as against Rs 526 crore finalised by the UPA government. Sitharaman said the Rs. 526 crore figure refers to the bare aircraft, capable of just flying and landing, and does not take into account the avionics, arsenal and other associated technologies that make it a complete fighting machine.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 14 Sep 2018 03:12

Same as earlier article, but interesting and important point to note for anyone who is questioning, why only 36.

For IAF history buffs, please remember why only two squadrons (No 1 Tigers and No 7 Battle Axes) of Mirage 2000s were bought off the shelf in the early 80s, as the MiG-23MF proved to be an ineffective counter to the PAF's then newly inducted F-16 fighter.

‘Rafale deal under UPA collapsed as Hindustan Aeronautics could not provide guarantee’: Sitharaman
https://scroll.in/latest/894302/rafale- ... ithamraman

Since infrastructure and technical requirements of the IAF do not allow for greater induction, the government decided to buy only 36 jets, Sitharaman told The Indian Express. “Every time you induct one squadron, there is a requirement for a lot of other paraphernalia to come in,” she said. “Given a set of parameters, if you quickly want to induct, two is the ideal.” A squadron comprises 18 aircraft.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 14 Sep 2018 03:25

I will not be providing twitter links for all 12 tweets, as it will take too long. I am just providing one link, in which you can see the entire set of Vishnu's tweets. However, I am reproducing all 12 points on this thread for readability. The link is just to provide a source.

https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1 ... 6700133376

1/12 - In the continued absence of conclusive answers from the govt and the often nonsensical tirade from those opposition, I decided to dig a little further into the Rafale controversy. Here are some details on the E 1.7 billion amount referred to as India Specific Upgrades.

2/12 - These India specific upgrades, ordered specifically on the request of the IAF, make the IAF Rafales more capable than what France operates.

3/12 - Contrary to what some may believe, these 14 India specific enhancements are not the figment of anyone's imagination. They were a component of what the UPA failed to negotiate and are now a part of what the IAF is getting.

4/12 - There are some crucial differences and additions in the India specific upgrades which the IAF is getting now compared to what was being negotiated earlier. (More on this later).

5/12 - Critically, talks on the cost of these India specific upgrades were primarily between the IAF and Dassault during the UPA regime and never progressed to conclusive cost negotiations between Dassault and HAL which was supposed to build Rafales in India.

6/12 - The end result, its IMPOSSIBLE to compare the per-piece cost of the Rafales being acquired now and the Rafales being negotiated for earlier.

7/12 - Besides a low band jammer, towed decoy system, upgraded engine, additional modes in the radar and higher resolution in the Front Sector Optronics, there are new details available.

8/12 - The Rafale with India Specific upgrades has structural differences compared with what the French operate. This is to accommodate a new Israeli satellite communications system.

9/12 - The confidentiality pact in this deal extends to Israel as well as France. Is Israel OK with sharing cost and other details of its equipment on the Rafale?

10/12 - The helmet mounted sight on Rafale is Israeli, but there is a significant upgrade involved in making this compatible with the Meteor and Scalp missiles being acquired.

11/12 - Targeting and other symbology specific to these weapon systems is being integrated into this helmet mounted sight.

12/12 - The changes demanded by India also involve significant changes to the “Modular Data Processing Unit” (MDPU) of the Rafale, a new generation mission computer.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 14 Sep 2018 03:28

*ADAG = Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group

https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1 ... 9350471680 ---> ADAG hasn't replaced HAL. Misnomer. Not a single component of the 36 Rafales ordered by this government are being procured by ADAG. Not One.

https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1 ... 5829117953 ----> ADAG presently making components of business jets for Dassault in a JV whose chairman, is the Chairman of Dassault! These components go into their global supply chain. Nothing to do with the Rafales coming to India.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 14 Sep 2018 03:36

Why Air Force Officials Are Being Forced To Defend Rafale Deal
https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/why-air-fo ... al-1914977
By Air Marshal Brijesh Dhar Jayal (Retd)

The French would not have been the only ones to be so confused. We also had the first 2+2 dialogue being held between the Indian Foreign and Defence Ministers and their respective US counterparts where the future direction of the evolving strategic partnership would be under discussion. At that session, it would be the US government teams, conscious of the Rafale controversy, who would wonder whether some of the past procurements through government-to-government programmes with the US like the C17 heavy-lift transport aircraft, C 130 Hercules, P 81 Maritime Reccee aircraft, Chinook heavy-lift helicopters and others, along with their offset obligations, could fall prey to a similar controversy, thus harming their reputation.

The DCAS or Deputy Chief of Air Staff, who as head of Plans and Procurement would have intimately been involved in the entire process, went a step further and countering allegations of any wrongdoing said, "What is being alleged does not match with facts at all." On the question of higher costs, he clarified, "I can tell you that the Rafale that we have gone for is substantially lower than the price that was on the table in 2008." And finally, on allegations that the offset contract had been awarded to certain private players, he said, "The facts on record indicate that there is no truth in those allegations."

Ironically, even as the government is being accused of favouring a private offset partner, Tata Advanced Systems and Lockheed Martin Corp have announced an agreement whereby TASL will manufacture in Hyderabad wings for all future Lockheed F-16 customers. This should have been a matter of jubilation for our Make-in-India efforts. Instead, since Lockheed are also amongst the potential bidders for a new IAF tender, they have been defensive and declared that this agreement is not contingent on the success or otherwise of that bid! Clearly, international weapon system suppliers are mindful of having not only to compete in the technical and commercial domains, but in a political minefield as well!

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 14 Sep 2018 03:53

chetak wrote:
Manu Pubby Verified account @manupubby

When the #RafaleDeal was being negotiated under the #UPA regime, Mukesh Ambani's company was key offsets partner.

Tainted firm whose promotor is linked to Vadra also applied pressure.

The full Rafale offsets saga.

When Mukesh Ambani almost came close to sealing a deal for Rafale
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 791781.cms

In the above article - written by Manu Pubby onlee - it states why Mukesh Ambani's company was dropped. His own company decided to stay out of the aircraft manufacturing business.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 14 Sep 2018 05:29

Serious frustration - over the Rafale deal - has set in the Congress Party. WOW!

Congress in a fix as Rafale deal yet to attract widespread public attention
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 685_1.html

“There is no debate taking place on the Rafale deal and no agitation while the biggest defence scam of Independent India should have been a serious talking point in houses and streets,” Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha Gulam Nabi Azad said. He added that debates in the parliament were failing to find mention in newspapers and news channels. Lashing out at the Modi government for allegedly censoring the media, the senior Congress leader said the media houses were under pressure not to cover the deal. The basic difference between the Congress and the BJP is that they (the former) never ever imagined telling the media what to publish and what not to, he added.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby V_Raman » 14 Sep 2018 06:04

I guess Mukesh and Anil agreed that Telecom will be Mukesh and Defense will be Anil. Anil sold infocomm to Mukesh...

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 14 Sep 2018 06:13

@ YI Patel....

If the French could sell a re-packaged M88 (to fit onboard the Tejas) - instead of the Kaveri - there are very few in India who would have shot that proposal down. The M88 is a certified, proven turbofan. On BRF itself - I could count on one hand - the number of people who would be against such a proposal. The core of the M88 is designed to go upto 105 kN. I will have to look that number up, to provide the source. But it could achieve the 90+ kN that the Tejas designers wanted. Already Snecma-Safran is trying to convice Dassault to uprate the M88 turbofan, as present and future iterations of the Rafale (F3R and the upcoming F4) are heavier than the F1 and F2 iterations.

If that proposal could really work (re-packaging a M88), India would have taken the M88 engine (over the F404/F414 engine) in a heartbeat. The French are far more reliable politically than the Americans in this aspect. Take a look at the Turbomeca-Shakti engine for the HAL Dhruv as an example. There is no doubt in Snecma-Safran's technical ability (as long as the engine diameter of the M88 and the engine bay of the Tejas were a match) to get it done. They are a proven engine manufacturer - with a record of success to match - much prior to the M88 turbofan.

When offsets are proposed, they are studied to see if what is being proposed is doable. What you are implying is that Snecma-Safran offered India something, which the engineers at GTRE eagerly lapped up, without any thought. That is simply *NOT* true. I would absolutely love to see your theory come true and I would love to be wrong on this. But there are somethings you just cannot work around, dimensions being one of them. Thus GTRE has to go through the ardous process of making the Kaveri fly and certify it, with Snecma-Safran's help. In the longer run, this is the more beneficial path for India though.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Karan M » 14 Sep 2018 06:14

First off, this thread has caught on fire. I literally didn't see this message.
And YI Patel, please remember the War Scenarios thread (we can't forget!)

Y I Patel wrote:When Modi came to power, he had several alternatives to address the stalemated MRCA-1 and the growing crisis of depleting combat aircraft in IAF. To name just one, he could have chosen to scrap MRCA-1 right away and bought, say, 36 Su-MKI upgraded to Super Sukhoi standard as a stop gap measure. Please note - this is an example, not an endorsement of the Su-Su. The point being, there were alternatives which were being advocated by different groups within India, each with its own set of pros and opportunity costs.


The issue with the Sukhoi is simply, it has issues which are in the process of being resolved. The Super Sukhoi - is still WIP. Other alternatives are equally untested, at least with the Rafale, the IAF has the experience of the Mirage, Ouragon, Jaguar and many other aircraft with French input to realize.

By opting for this particular alternative, Modi not only made it personal to him by departing from established procurement process (viz MRCA 1), he also relinquished the biggest pressure point he had against France - the threat to walk out of the deal without buying a single aircraft. It is understandable to remember and talk about the desperate situation in the IAF, but easy to overlook that France had a lot riding on that deal as well. Dassault/Safran operate in a specific market segment; their own domestic market is shrinking and internationally they are facing stiff competition from other competitors. India is not only a huge defense products market, but also an attractive strategic partner. Last but not least, all other major producers were already salivating at the prospect of a cancelled deal.

So Modi had a strong hand. He traded it in when he made the choice, so now he is being asked to account for the opportunities lost and to articulate what tangible, lasting value this deal purchased for India. It is eminently reasonable to ask what the $8 Billion stop gap measure obtained to compensate for the opportunities lost by not pursuing other alternatives, notably alternatives that would have addressed IAF's long term needs as comprehensively as intended by MRCA 1. The intent of MRCA 1, after all, was to comprehensively address IAF needs and to also acquire lasting, tangible value through local manufacture in India. Yes, it did not work out. But the intent of MRCA 1 was valid and needed to survive its demise. It is not enough to argue that $8 billion got us an excellent platform to plug existing gaps, and that the money to be spent can be scrupulously accounted for through all the systems (publicized as well as secret) that come with the platform. Any major deal (especially one this expensive) is supposed to do just that: mega deals with Russia always came with unannounced quid pro quo, and India already has access to several best-in-class technologies from partners such as Israel. So in other words, it is easy to provide exact financial accounting for the 36 a/c deal, but how is that expense justified?


The platform superiority and what we got via the expense is now well articulated, so I wont beat that dead horse. Nor will I belabour the point on why 36, we have the IAF clearly pointing out the defacto 2 squadron purchase methodology (MiG-23, Mirage 2000 and even the Su-30K/MK when first purchased, though they haven't mentioned it, we all remember).

The other point is what else did we get.
On the defence side, I can quite clearly state, there are several extremely positive developments, which though public, I personally don't feel it is right to tom tom them. Let them fully develop and they have already started showing advances.
On the industrial side, this was a key issue which Modi managed to get through. The fact the GOI has kept mum on this too speaks volumes. (http://www.larsentoubro.com/media/31444 ... roject.pdf)
Third, there is what came specifically for aerospace technologies beyond the Rafale (https://www.financialexpress.com/india- ... iz/412366/) This article mentions the maximal list, let me be clear and say there is nuance beyond this article and several others. Its not in either India or France's best interest to articulate each and every nitty gritty involved, even if folks can make reasonable surmises about what's included.

This is why the Kaveri engine help clause becomes important. Kaveri is a crown jewel that is also an NPA. It was incumbent on France to use this second chance to add value by going beyond the bare minimum of certifying the Kaveri engine. France could have improved the real Kaveri and made it a centerpiece of a follow-on longer term partnership. If they had done that, the efforts of the last two years would then have led to a comprehensive longer term partnership of great mutual benefit to both countries. Instead, they used the last two years on a scam to sell a repackaged M-88 to do essentially what I am saying, but without the real benefit of an improved Kaveri for India. And the saddest part is that the DRDO played an enabler in this scam.


I think you are being over-fixated on just the Kaveri. It is not in any which way defunct yet nor has DRDO given up on it. DRDO will give up on it, when SA to RM is asked by MOD to shutter the program as there are no resources, and that has not occurred. Instead, via Rafale offsets we have managed to get Safran to get the baseline Kaveri cross the finish line.
Coming to improving the real Kaveri and making a Mk2, I fear you underestimate the costs involved. France/Safran will obviously think twice about making a 90/110Kn version of the Kaveri and finance it entirely themselves. They will propose something more workable.

Tell me, when we went to Israel with the challenge we were facing with the LCA MMR and said, hey we have a scanner, a PSU, and the backend electronics but interface issues, what did Israel and Elta propose? They ditched the entire LCA MMR and the hybrid one that emerged utilized the LCA MMRs scanner & antenna tech, and entirely leveraged the EL/M-2032 back-end.

In short, Safran, Elta etc are not magic workers. They know only so much and time is not infinite. If we hold them to a tough deadline and say do this for us, they will also revert to what they are comfortable with, their own proven products and technologies which they can debug, modify and iterate.

In short, it is not some mega scam if Safran proposes the M-88 tech for future Kaveri. Its what their business strategy guys tell them they can afford given the costs of developing something new and what their R&D tells them they can manage given the time and resource constraints.

Karan, thanks for the additional explanation on DRDO docs. But tell me this, how can there be an official record of something that did not fructify? We all hold it to be a truth that PVNR tried to test nukes when he was in power, but was stopped from doing so. Do we have official records to support that? No, only media accounts from reliable sources. I submit that there are reliable sources to support what happened, and I hope what I said above clarifies why I am mad at the French for merely sticking to the wording of the agreement instead of honoring the spirit of accommodation that Modi accorded them by putting his neck on the line with this deal.


My point is PVNRs data is known because it is relatively simple and from multiple sources. Discussions on Kaveri, defence tech are far more complex & our DDM is absurd in reporting upon it. They repeat stuff word to word and then add their own editorializing and it all goes to crap.

We live in Kalyug, and rough political discourse is the accepted norm and even a sign of political health. Yes even this heaven on earth called USA has politicians at each others throats, though I gather Canada is spared by this otherwise global scourge. A lot of the criticism may be politically motivated, but that's par for the course. Any Indian leader in a similar situation should be called to account for such substantive decisions. But, it is important to note, asking hard questions does not automatically equate to opposition and not all who speak up against the deal wish to see Modi weakened.


Come sir, the BJP old gang wants Modi led BJP out. Their egos have dwarfed everything. INC-Left just want everything with the term Yindu nationalist to burn .. they care two hoots for national security and a strongly nationalist govt tough on security alarms them. A PBhushan who bloviates against harsh measures in J&K, is suddenly worried about national security? Its just a convenient stick to beat the BJP with, facts be darned.

The reality is that political discourse impinging national security and international relations has strong undercurrents. International deals are supposed to be win-win. Modi has not only survived much more adverse situations, he is also uniquely talented at turning challenges into weapons to crush his opponents. But any political damage to him will redound badly on the French. If the French are seen to gain at India's expense, even Modi will not give them the same level of trust as he did last time.


In this case, there has been a win-win. Indian defence establishment has benefited from this deal and several others. My respect (personally speaking of course) for Modi led PMO has gone up by several notches that they have not yackety yacked about every other item in order to protect their political chops. They truly do care for national security and national interests & which is why they are not upset at France either. Both sides are benefiting.

I for one would welcome more Rafales as well, at least 36 more and have the French commit to helping us out with LCA Mk2 and AMCA.

Karan M
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Karan M » 14 Sep 2018 09:44

Israeli SATCOM H/W on Rafale is brilliant. We are getting our own version of the famed Israeli Baaz - this CLEARLY indicates we have NLOS comms on our Rafales and that itself tells you what strike capabilities are envisaged. And if its being done on the Rafale, no reason we cant explore similar capabilities for the Su-30 upgrade! And for max commonality we should look for the same jammer package (low band + decoys).

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Karan M » 14 Sep 2018 09:47

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/the-a ... 1701606283

Because the Baz still has similar range as its more contemporary successors, the F-15I and the F-16I, it can work as a forward deployed networking and command and control node, absorbing the battle picture via data-link from fighters within its line of sight and then beaming this information up to a satellite, which then beams it back down to Israeli commanders hundreds, or even thousands of miles away. This can also go in the opposite direction, with new orders, alerts of pop-up air defenses, and other updates being sent from behind friendly lines or from orbiting strategic intelligence aircraft to the F-15B/D Baz. From here, the Baz can disperse this information to the rest of the non-satellite communications equipped strike package.

This high bandwidth satellite communications modification can be seen on F-15B/Ds packing a large bulbous R2-D2 like satellite communications dome just behind the environmental cooling system vent, located on the jet’s forward spine..

chetak
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby chetak » 14 Sep 2018 10:19

^^^^^^^

Not to rain on anyone's parade but....

For some countries, only the copious application of vitamin M is necessary. These are also the very same countries that worship mammon to the exclusion of all else and when they see that they have us over a barrel, they will be incredibly merciless in extracting an extortionate price for their wares.

The amerikis are past masters at keeping the regional pot boiling and they along with a whole host of other goras have kept the Indo pak and Indo china pot boiling over the decades and sold weapons to both sides thus assuring for themselves the continued good health of their respective MICs.

Indian acceptance of their offerings will only enhance their world wide market potential, especially after what India did with the MKI

The entire M88 tech is available for the asking if we can pay their price and the longer we keep bleating helplessly about the kaveri and how we need help, the asking price will ONLY keep rising steeply.

Even in the kaveri project, it looks like the amerikis may have us in a potentially fatal chokehold and uncle trump being uncle trump, it may not be too long before he decides to apply the squeeze.

we may get locked into a F404--F414--F?? long term cycle without any way out of the maze. The more numbers of these power plants that land up in India, the more at risk we place ourselves. We have already been there and done that and don't seem to have learned anything. We are looking at engines and they are looking at realpolitik, and therein lies the rub.

Realpolitik is the ability to ground multiple squadrons of tejus without firing a single shot. It is well within the realm of possibility, given the ameriki penchant for reneging on any deal as and when it suits them.

By asking everybody and his brother for tech assistance, the true and accurate status of the kaveri is now known to many goras and such knowledge will be shared as gossip among the specialized MIL engine designer community. The goras have the dual advantages of decades of failure/success design history, design data bases to fall back upon as well as 20/20 hindsight. This accurate status may well be at considerable variance from what is being projected by our guys because they may not truly know.

just saying onlee.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby SaiK » 14 Sep 2018 15:55

One of the significant operational force multiplier is towed decoys. I dont know how these work but read that EF2K has them. My question is are these for single use or the same decoy can be used multiple times?

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby brar_w » 14 Sep 2018 18:21

Towed decoys have existed since the early 1990s and have been used during operational missions since then. They work by acting as active/emitting decoys and DRFM jammers against incoming RF guided Surface to Air Missiles. Fiber Optic TDs allow the aircraft's EW system and mission computer to control their activity and pass on threat information. Amongst the new crop of aircraft, the Typhoon, Super Hornet, and the F-35 carry them and the list is likely larger. They are one tool in a larger defensive self-protection suite.


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