VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

[nachiket]

Who are Aryan monkey and Ninja warlord? Another baba Banaras type?

I saw this on Twitter and had the same question. He is a blogger seemingly but doesn't claim to be a journalist of any sort.

[Kartik]

One doesn't always need to be a journalist to get to know about negotiations or deals. Sometimes, good contacts and connects does the job.

[Manish_Sharma]

I thought to post with full CONVERSATION :

https://twitter.com/Aryanwarlord/status/1161354918638174208

Ninjamonkey
@Aryanwarlord
200 #Rafale coming.
Deal almost finalized with Govt of #France .
Chota Bhai out.
DRAL will become DAIL( Dassault aviation India limited) with GOI as 50% partner . Firm will be independent of @HALHQBLR
.
Dassault will help with GHATAK & AMCA.
Wait & watch!
--------------------------------------------------------------

Hitesh Adhikari (defenceglobe)
@defenceglobe
·
4h
Replying to
@Aryanwarlord
and
@HALHQBLR
I seriously doubt the number 200, even with a cost of 96-100 million dollar per aircraft this will be a over 20 billion dollar cost just for jets.

In 2016 deal the cost of merely airframes without mods was near same.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Abhishek
@918abhi
Replying to
@defenceglobe

@Aryanwarlord
and
@HALHQBLR
You see what India cancelled- FGFA program. Cash flows were already accounted for, it just got shifted from FGFA program to Rafale.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hitesh Adhikari (defenceglobe)
@defenceglobe
·
4h
Replying to
@918abhi

@Aryanwarlord
and
@HALHQBLR
Still doubtful, 20 billion for 200 aircrafts and then 10+ billion for modifications and the spares and infrastructure set up. Weapons package excluded.

Also i can bet in next 5-10 years Iaf will end up buying fgfa one way or another.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abhishek
@918abhi
Replying to
@defenceglobe

@Aryanwarlord
and
@HALHQBLR
You won’t have 200 jets in one year it will come in Minimum 10 years spread $20-30bn in 10 years and you have $2-3 bn capital outlay per year.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ninjamonkey
@Aryanwarlord
Replying to
@918abhi

@defenceglobe
and
@HALHQBLR
Yes, also note that the GOI will be a 50% partner so it will essentially be paying itself ~$5-10Bn.
Afaik Dassault has committed to 75% local sourcing of parts from the vendor's it has already trained with DRAL.
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Hitesh Adhikari (defenceglobe)
@defenceglobe
Replying to
@Aryanwarlord

@918abhi
and
@HALHQBLR
Sir if this happens, it would be a party




Also i feel iaf should push for 83 mk1a contract now. Too much time is spent without any effort towards signing the actual contract
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[Cain Marko]

Party? That's an understatement. I'm a teetotaler, but on such an occasion, who knows? So long as India has engine tech... And the LCA becomes completely strings free.

[kit]

That kind of deal essentially puts indo french military political relationship into a much deeper level . But a coup nevertheless and with fighter engine tech india can relatively insulate itself from the vagrancies of american friendship .. I think a version of the kaveri core with snecma tech could eventually power the tejas as well as MCA.

[Karthik S]

Gurus even French don't operate 200 Rafales. This number seems very far fetched.

[nachiket]

Why are we discussing Twitter speculation as if it is a news report?

[Rakesh]

I echo nachiket. No more on this please.

[Sumeet]

This means its hidden desire of every Jingo and we would all like it to come true

And another reason it is being discussed since its posted by our calm and composed guru Ramana.

[nits]

Guys, speculation at this point.

If this is true MMRCA is as good as dead

[kittoo]

^
Govt already announced WE WILL BE 5 TRILLION ECONOMY IN 5 YEARS, for sure then 200 Rafale over next 15 years will be small change for us.

Govt announcing and we actually being are two very different things. To become 5 trillion economy in 5 years, we would need annual growth between 10-11% every year. We will be lucky to get 7 in current scenario.
Not saying anyone else couldve done it better. Just that we should be realistic.
Still, 200 rafales would be nice.

[nash]

With Dassault Aviation shifting focus to FCAS, Rumors of Shifting Rafale production to India

http://idrw.org/with-dassault-aviation- ... -to-india/ .

Above news item is also quoted in his twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/Aryanwarlord/status ... 8638174208

[JayS]

Lets not spend too much energy on discussing such rumors. The discussion has gems like "GOI will essentially be paying itself ~$5-10Bn" and stuff. Its difficult to take seriously with such pointers.

IAF + IN's total capex available for Aircraft purchase is of the order of ~5-6 B/yr. Given existing commitments and imminent orders and projected force multiplier requirements, there is no way we can accommodate $3B/yr for 10-12yrs on just two Fighter acquisition programs, which is half the available budget. Even if we consider increasing budget with increasing economic size, the needs of our forces are endless. Its stupid to spend so much money on a small part of the total Air Wing with force multipliers are being utterly neglected already.

About $3.5 B must be pending from Rafale contract itself. Give ~2B for Apache + Chinook order. LCA Mk1A order is $7-8 B. LCH will need similar number. Then HTT, remaining ALH, Rudra, Su30MKI orders. There are so many of them.

Can someone list all the existing, eminent and projected acquisition programs for IAF and IN Air Wing..?? lets put some rough numbers and calculate how much capex is needed in coming 10-15yr timeline.

[Vivek K]

How many Rafales are delivered so far to IAF?

[LakshmanPST]

How many Rafales are delivered so far to IAF?

None...
Deliveries to IAF will start next month as per media reports...

But they will arrive in India only by April 2020... IAF need to test them in France...
The first batch coming to India will be 4 Rafales...
All the 36 will be delivered by 2022-23...

[Aditya_V]

How many Rafales are delivered so far to IAF?

None...
Deliveries to IAF will start next month as per media reports...

But they will arrive in India only by April 2020... IAF need to test them in France...
The first batch coming to India will be 4 Rafales...
All the 36 will be delivered by 2022-23...

That's 7-8 years after contract signing for plane in service, Dasualt is making HAL looking efficient.

[Rakesh]

None...
Deliveries to IAF will start next month as per media reports...

But they will arrive in India only by April 2020... IAF need to test them in France...
The first batch coming to India will be 4 Rafales...
All the 36 will be delivered by 2022-23...

That's 7-8 years after contract signing for plane in service, Dasualt is making HAL looking efficient.

That is incorrect Sir.

The industry standard is three years from contract signature. Even Lockheed Martin - the quintessential leader in fighter aircraft production - has said the same will occur if they win the current MRFA contract. Same will be true with the other OEMs as well.

The Rafale deal was signed in Sept 2016, the first batch of four aircraft are joining the IAF in Sept 2019. Exactly three years later. These first four aircraft will arrive in India in May 2019 (or perhaps a little earlier). All deliveries are expected to be done by May 2022, which is ~ six years later. Indian aircrew and maintenance technicians are undergoing an extensive training program in France on the Rafale as we speak. And that training takes time. The delivery schedule has been set as per the signed agreement between Dassault and the GOI.

The Rafale line at Merginac can go up 30+ aircraft per year. However Dassault is doing only 11 aircraft per year because the Govt of France is ordering the bare minimum year-over-year. To increase production requires further investment in tooling, jigs and human capital, which the French are not willing to do. Increased investment also has to made with Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers. The lead times for parts to arrive at Merignac have to be significantly reduced to achieve 30 - 33 aircraft/year.

Thus Dassault recoups some of the cost invested in the line by selling the plane to foreign nations (Qatar, India and Egypt to date). Production can only increase if these foreign nations are willing to invest in a quicker delivery schedule. That cost is *NOT* cheap and is best avoided. The cost invested in an increased production line - in a foreign country - is sunk cost. You will never recover that cost back and the foreign country will enjoy all the benefits of an increased production capacity. Not financially worth it. And HAL has nothing to do with this 36 aircraft order. This order is purely on Dassault's shoulders and all indications to date have shown that it is progressing as per the agreed schedule.

[brar_w]

Actually the French government, as far as I can tell, aren't really ordering any aircraft for deliveries while the export orders are flowing in. Only once the deliveries/ export backlog dips below a certain level will they begin receiving aircraft to keep the line flowing at a decent enough rate. Dassault's problem isn't deliveirng within the 2-3 year lead time window (their supply chain is actually really well integrated given that this is the only fast jet program the French have backed in the last 2 decades), it is delivering quantity in short amount of time due to its low volume of production/delivery and the cost to ramp up without a sustained X number of years to amortize the cost.

The sweet spot for "annual deliveries" that they have found (a # they can achieve with minimal investment and then sustain given backlog) is 14 aircraft a year IIRC. French Air Force deliveries will begin in late 2022 after deliveries to export customers conclude. So to get a lot of aircraft (like 200 rumored above) in a short amount of time would require a considerable capital investment as very high rate production cannot be sustained by backlog so would be a "one customer" funded solution only. It appears the French AF won't get its 200 th Rafale till perhaps 2030 or beyond which would be like 32 years after production re-started (after a 2-3 year pause). They currently operate 131 Rafale's with an additional 40 M variants with the Navy.

In an ideal world the French Air Force would have acquired all its Rafale's in the mid 2000's or perhaps early this decade with Dassault smoothly transitioning production over to something like the nEUron or a UCAV based platform to sustain itself through the 2020's and as a lead up to their next generation combat fighter. That did not occur because investments on that tech demonstrators flowed very late and as such France will continue to do what it takes to make sure the Rafale's production is viable through the 2020's and even through the early 2030's. This for them means delayed deliveries and the flexibility to turn the tap off when there is export backlog and turn it back on when those are fulfilled. It is a sub-optimal way of acquiring 250 or so combat fighters but the only one that can sustain Dassault as a production house for combat aircraft.

[ramana]

Why are we discussing Twitter speculation as if it is a news report?

nachiket You are talking like Dead hand and all those are real news!
They are also speculations.

Only difference is Twitter guys don't get paid for their tweets.

[ramana]

nits, Interesting that 83 Mk1A popped up in your mind.

Its possible this 200 Rafale is kite flying to stymie that!

Just take this as a data point.
Nothing is fixed on stone.

IAF does not have need for 200 Rafales.
That means some of these could be IN version.
So some clever person is trying to bundle the IAF and IN requirements
To match the US F-18 proposal of MMRCA+IN.
It could be a battle between lobbies.
Lets see.

[ramana]

I think looking at the threats, resources India
should buy
- 83 Mk1A to add to 40 Tejas Mk1
- 2 more Rafale squadrons built in France to cut down total cost and get offsets back
- 200 MWF
- 60 Naval LCA. Operate IAC with Mig 29s till then.
- Re-engine the Jaguar
This will take you to 2040.
Then we shall see.

[Rakesh]

Why are we discussing Twitter speculation as if it is a news report?

nachiket You are talking like Dead hand and all those are real news!
They are also speculations.

Only difference is Twitter guys don't get paid for their tweets.

Ramana-ji, people will say any nonsense on twitter and get away with it. Over time, they become irrelevant. But that is as far it goes.

I read through his twitter feed. He claims his source to be a former IAF officer who is now with the BJP. Pardon me, but I find it hard to believe that an IAF officer - retired or serving - would leak such info, if such negotiations were indeed taking place. India has many enemies who would love to see a deal - like this one - collapse. If this new is true (which I highly doubt), it would be extremely irresponsible to talk about this in public. Now folks are speculating - by taking names - who this retd IAF officer is. Unnecessarily tarnishing retired officers' reputations.

[Rakesh]

With Dassault Aviation shifting focus to FCAS, Rumors of Shifting Rafale production to India

http://idrw.org/with-dassault-aviation- ... -to-india/ .

Above news item is also quoted in his twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/Aryanwarlord/status ... 8638174208

Thank you for posting this article nash.

The yarns some folks will write, all from a tweet! WOW

[nachiket]

Why are we discussing Twitter speculation as if it is a news report?

nachiket You are talking like Dead hand and all those are real news!
They are also speculations.

Only difference is Twitter guys don't get paid for their tweets.

ramana saar, I don't even take acknowledged journalists naming "unnamed sources" only very seriously (with a few exceptions given below*), since we have found in the past that such news can be hot air. So how seriously should we take the words of an anonymous person on Twitter naming himself Ninja Monkey? If he had pointed to someone from govt/IAF saying something along these lines I would not mind.

* Exceptions I mention are guys like Hemant Rout who have proved to have good sources in some places.

[Karan M]

I agree. Can't take this news seriously at present. The current economic climate is not conducive for big-ticket deals at all.

The industry is screaming itself hoarse about a recession, funds are in short supply, all services have laundry list of needs/wants, buying 200 Rafales just seems like wishful thinking cooked up this gent.

[Vips]

India set to receive first Rafale jet on September 20.

Rafale is set to handover its first fighter jet built for the Indian Air Force. Air Force Chief BS Dhanoa and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will be in France on September 20 to receive the first Rafale jet manufactured for the Indian Air Force.

"In presence of the IAF Chief, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will accept the aircraft in presence of various defence and civilian bureaucrats there," IAF sources said in New Delhi.

The ceremony is expected to take place around the end of the third week of September and is likely to be attended by a large contingent from the French government as well.

The Indian Air Force would train 24 pilots in three different batches for flying the Indian Rafales till May next year which is when the planes will arrive in India.

The Indian Air Force will deploy one each squadron of the Rafale combat aircraft at its airbases in Ambala in Haryana and Hashimara in Bengal.

In September 2016, India signed a deal with the French government and Dassault Aviation to acquire 36 Rafale fighter jets for over Euro 7.8 billion to arrest the fall of combat squadrons and meet urgent requirements on the eastern and western fronts

[Rakesh]

France may offer 36 more Rafale aircraft to India
https://m.economictimes.com/news/defenc ... 779501.cms

[Rakesh]

^^^The French are reportedly offering less than 6 billion Euros for the second batch of 36, with an increased delivery schedule of 1 per month for the next 6 years.

[Karthik S]

NM is visiting France today, fingers crossed over possible additional Rafales.

[Prasad]

^^^The French are reportedly offering less than 6 billion Euros for the second batch of 36, with an increased delivery schedule of 1 per month for the next 6 years.

That is a lot. I think the Egyptians got them at 92m euros each in their follow-on deal. 1.1 billion euros for 12. 6bn/36 = 160mn each is a big jump in price.

[Karthik S]

The number will be for entire package, itsn't that what congis used to scream before elections? Additional 36 would mean developing an entirely new air base may be in eastern sector.

[Yagnasri]

If we are indeed buying Rafale then better go for 114 then one more 36 units and done away with it. We may not going to get anything cheaper then with Rafale in the bid. Only thing will be MII will not be there. We need to use tech transfer and off set clauses properly.

[nandakumar]

A question for the experts. Isn't the first batch of 36 nuclear capable aircrafts? And if so, do we need the second batch too, to capable of delivering nuclear bombs/missiles? If we do not need the second batch too to be similar in specification then costs should come down isn't it?

[Vips]

I hope NM will try to get some TOT or substantial investment by Safran for Kaveri engine. The additional 36 jets order can be used as a leverage. If we are going to pay 60 million Euros more per jet then what Egypt is paying then this amount is being surely paid for getting something extra.

[souravB]

I would like to think nobody in the world is going to part with their TFTA technology, and it doesn't matter however much we pay them.
IMO a better deal would be to just buy 54+spare(or however many we can afford) Rafales as G2G, close the MMRCA tamasha, and ask Dassault to form a JV with HAL or any other pvt player to build a TFTA facility for integration of 5th gen aircraft with fault tolerance in microns and the whole shebang. Build Tier1 suppliers, handhold them to make a jump towards industry 4.0. If possible integrate them into Rafale supply chain. The facility should be able to churn out 15-20 AMCAs a year whenever it comes online.
This IMO would be a better outcome than all the ToT tamasha.

[srin]

I hope NM will try to get some TOT or substantial investment by Safran for Kaveri engine. The additional 36 jets order can be used as a leverage. If we are going to pay 60 million Euros more per jet then what Egypt is paying then this amount is being surely paid for getting something extra.

It's an interesting coincidence, no ? Just days before PM goes to France where additional Rafales are on the table, news leaks that there is a setback to Kaveri-related engine TOT.

It could be anybody who leaked it - those who want Kaveri to succeed, those who want no more Rafales, those who want more Rafales etc. This is a pretty deep game that's being played.

[Karan M]

I would like to think nobody in the world is going to part with their TFTA technology, and it doesn't matter however much we pay them.
IMO a better deal would be to just buy 54+spare(or however many we can afford) Rafales as G2G, close the MMRCA tamasha, and ask Dassault to form a JV with HAL or any other pvt player to build a TFTA facility for integration of 5th gen aircraft with fault tolerance in microns and the whole shebang. Build Tier1 suppliers, handhold them to make a jump towards industry 4.0. If possible integrate them into Rafale supply chain. The facility should be able to churn out 15-20 AMCAs a year whenever it comes online.
This IMO would be a better outcome than all the ToT tamasha.

Agree, this is a good possibility, and hopefully we leverage the same Su-30 suppliers to transition to AMCA so that we don't lose industrial capability. In the current economic climate, this is quite akin to a stimulus for the industry!

[Mort Walker]

Need to get an order of 400 LCA going. An additional purchase of 36 Rafales will make little difference and cost another $10B USD.

[Kartik]

^^^The French are reportedly offering less than 6 billion Euros for the second batch of 36, with an increased delivery schedule of 1 per month for the next 6 years.

That has to include more than just the jets. Anyway, the price will only be known if this actually transpires and the offered deal cost is made public.

[Kartik]

The number will be for entire package, itsn't that what congis used to scream before elections? Additional 36 would mean developing an entirely new air base may be in eastern sector.

Nope. the existing 2 bases can easily handle 2 additional squadrons. 1 in Ambala and 1 in Kalaikunda.