VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Philip » 14 Aug 2018 21:01

Raking up the past is not the way.It would equate the Bofors deal with that of the Rafale.There is a key diffetence.In the Bofors deal, solid evidence came out from Sweden that bribes were paid.I posted the full story last year. As far as the Rafale deal goes, the only Q is about its high price.There is no evidence whatsoever that anyone got a kickback.The most that can be said is that it was poor price negotiations.We will have to wait for the CAG report.

The GOI should defend its decision with hard facts and get the IAF's support for the same.The Rafale won the contest.Are there vested firang interests trying to scupper the deal through the new MRCA req.?It may appear to be so.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 15 Aug 2018 11:08

Very simple how many aircraft UPA ordered 0. When there no deal in UP A Government then everything talked is all gas, no matter how media spins it.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 19 Aug 2018 23:38

https://twitter.com/Sudip1203/status/10 ... 5011194880 ---> These are reports from way back in 2012-13 when the UPA was in power. Please do not tell me that Modi was influencing government decisions then, as well. As I said, raving & ranting doesn't help....facts do.

Dassault Aviation Partners with Reliance Industries
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news ... ndustries/

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby chetak » 20 Aug 2018 00:16

V_Raman wrote:I am beginning to think this is a hit job by USA. They cannot stand that their fighters were not L1 nor not getting any contracts in the future for their fighters. This will die down if an order is placed for the teens.

Rakesh wrote:^^^ If found to be true, that would be a coup! :lol:

Wasn't this the very same methodology used to hobble the purchase of the Bofors replacement artillery that the IA desperately needed and wanted??

Did it not work out well for decades, by stymying, delaying and preventing the much needed purchase??

just in case, someone is having second thoughts, this would be one way to go, no??

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 20 Aug 2018 02:50

Could be chetak, but isn't this highly speculative? Like I said, it would be a coup if true. However, finding rock hard evidence on such a hit job is like finding a needle in a haystack. The better path forward is...

1) CAG needs to come out with its report on the Rafale deal. I believe the Modi Govt will get a clean chit.

2) The Modi Govt needs to win the 2019 General Elections and then order two additional Rafale squadrons (36 - 44 birds).

3) End the MMRCA tamasha, citing budgetary constraints and focus on improving Tejas Mk1/Mk1A production.

Please see this....

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7630&p=2284618#p2284618

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 21 Aug 2018 00:36

:rotfl:

Fact Check: Rahul Gandhi changed price of Rafale aircraft 4 times in 5 months
https://www.indiatoday.in/fact-check/st ... 2018-08-14

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby manjgu » 21 Aug 2018 12:41

Well, Congress has to manufacture a scam so they doing their best. Overall, their allegations have not got much traction and in their hearts the congis also know there is no scam. I dont know but would it have helped Modi sarkar to give a breakup like this .. this does not divulge any secrets

BJP UPA

Basic A/c 100 (@2015 prices 110 (@2010 prices)
India Specific Enhancement 30 0
Munitions 40 0
Maintenance Support 50 0
Training etc 20 0


Though there is merit also in BJP not reacting so much in detail. Kind of punctures Pappus argument.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 22 Aug 2018 13:00

Yes, but the reason why Pappu claims are being pushed up could be is that people want details in public so that it could be embarassing to the French and kill any development of the Kaveri engine which will stop purchases of 404/414 engines and make our fighters complety independant from American leverage.

Even if the INC does not belive the charges they are being pushed by Global Financial Centers to push for scam?

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Philip » 22 Aug 2018 14:08

I am putting forward an idea.We have been in recent times wanting our birds to have every bell and whistle possible under the sun.Naturally with all this heavy " jewellery", the costs skyrocket.Why therefore cannot we acquire " vanilla" Rafales without much of the " dressing", which can always be upgraded at a later date when we can afford it? This would hugely bring down costs.

Our induction of the SU-30 was done in stages not all at once in the beginning.We are now contemplating raising several sqds. of MKIs to Super Sukhoi std. incorporating BMos and other new AAMs.The US is doing exactly this with various avatars of the JSF depending upon the ally and amount it contributed towards JSF development.Even the UK was denied some key JSF tech. leading to much heartburn.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby souravB » 22 Aug 2018 14:10

^^There are vested interests. for the MMRCA 2.0, Rafale would be the most logical choice capability wise and financially. So make it untouchable for the gov. in power lest the decision makers can be influenced for some other fighter.
There is a movie released earlier this year named 'Aiyyari' which deals with the arms lobby in Indian defense forces. The movie was loosely based on the TSD controversy in IA during Gen. V.K. Singh's tenure.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Kartik » 23 Aug 2018 04:20

Reliance clarifies its role in the offsets program for the Rafale deal. It basically isn't building any components for the 36 Rafales on order for the IAF. Another massive hole in that chutiya Gandhi's allegations.

link

Indian group Reliance Infrastructure has highlighted its role in the offset programme linked to New Delhi’s acquisition of 36 Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft from France.

Responding to allegations of misconduct in the offset programme, which were raised by the political opposition in India, the Indian National Congress (INC) party, Reliance said in a statement on 20 August that it is not contracted to build any components of the 36 aircraft ordered by the Indian Air Force (IAF).

The INC had previously alleged that the Rafale acquisition had unfairly promoted the interests of Reliance, which has formed a joint venture to undertake offset-related manufacturing in the programme, ahead of state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Hari Nair » 25 Aug 2018 18:59

Col Ajai Shukla had given an excellent price analysis of the Rafale in his blogpost "Broadsword" back in Nov 2017. Its worth a read, especially for those who are scratching their heads about the breakdown.
https://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/search?q=rafale+costs

Do remember that the basics of the deal are as under:-

UPA: identified Dassault as L1 for a proposed contract for 126 fighters (18 outright purchase from France and the rest to be made in India). However, when Dassault queried about the terms for manufacture in India, they came up with additional manhours around 2.4 - 2.7 times more, thus pushing the costs up. In which case Eurofighter would be L1. Also, Dassault flatly refused for performance guarantee for fighters licence manufactured by HAL (which required Dassault to park money in a monetary instrument). Those negotiations lead to a deadlock. There were NO price negotiations with Eurofighter, due to procedural restrictions. Possibly then, Eurofighter's quoted costs would also have crept upwards for the same reason.

There is NO way anyone can state the UPA had a deal and quote a comparative price then and now- there never was a deal! At best one can compare the following:
- Cost of bare-bones aircraft 18 fly-away UPA era vs cost of bare-bones aircraft 36 flyaway NDA era, without additional India-spec eqpt negotiated by NDA
(price corrected for inflation) - which the Govt could reveal, provided there is no commercial confidentiality clause and also provided there is such a breakdown available)
- Cost of French Air Force Rafales, as comparison WITH programme NRC (R&D costs) which will need to be loaded on to the Indian Rafales as well. Ajai Shukla has done a good job sifting these figures and it appears to be the following:
- French AF Rafale Euro 160 million vs Indian Rafale Euro 138.9 million.

The ONLY point worth arguing is : why should we pay for their R&D costs and "subsidise" their industry. Well, I am afraid that's how the pricing mechanism works - you HAVE to pay for a reasonable element of the R&D cost for any aircraft.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Muns » 27 Aug 2018 09:42

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 63123.html

Congress to intensify campaign against Rafale deal, plans month-long agitation


Guys, it absolutely burns me to see that Congoons are trying to maximize this issue and really having success with it. I guess in some sense a lie told 100 times can be true. It doesn't matter if there's no facts behind it, as long as you can keep on saying it. That is the way of New Age politics.

To some extent I've tried to see if we can counter this propaganda especially when it comes to the Rafale and here we understand how badly we need it.
No point in discussing the specifics anymore when, blatant lies can change public opinion.
To this extent, we of try to create a video with IDSA, to try and explain for a common man's view the benefits of the Rafale deal.

To be honest I've tried my best to explain the history of the deal to some extent. The can be no comparison to the UPA failed deal as opposed to what Modi tried to push through in the shortest period of time. I've tried to bring this out in the video below. Please take a look and has always any feedback is appreciated. 2019 Elections are not too far behind. We have taken an active stance in trying to plan over the next couple of months with regard to the strategy. If you have any feedback with regard to our site in trying to improve things as well please let me know.
Please use the contact link on the main India aware site, to send me a message in case I don't read it here. I will however check periodically.


Rafale, India's omnirole fighter jet falls prey to propaganda from opposition




www.india-aware.com

www.youtube.com/c/indiaaware

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Philip » 27 Aug 2018 20:28

The best counter is to place ( any classified India-specific requirements not in the public domain) facts before the parliamentary standing committee on defence.Once this has been done the Opposition's criticism will be blunted. as it will not be able to use the argumenf of secrecy by the govt. The 2019 elections are not too far away, but the GOI must negotiate a second tranche now, getting the best financial deal from Dassault, valid till after the elections.Pushing the deal for extra MKIs supposedly round the corner will also show the French that the IAF ( as MP said) have other options too in case the pricing is exorbitant.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Katare » 27 Aug 2018 22:49

Once you do that it'll become a scandal being probed by a govt organization. Must wait for the regular audit as and when it happens. Cong can't make it stick, no one in India believes PM is corrupt.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby ramana » 28 Aug 2018 00:36

Philip wrote:The best counter is to place ( any classified India-specific requirements not in the public domain) facts before the parliamentary standing committee on defence.Once this has been done the Opposition's criticism will be blunted. as it will not be able to use the argument of secrecy by the govt. The 2019 elections are not too far away, but the GOI must negotiate a second tranche now, getting the best financial deal from Dassault, valid till after the elections.Pushing the deal for extra MKIs supposedly round the corner will also show the French that the IAF ( as MP said) have other options too in case the pricing is exorbitant.


Good way to sink it by entangling with MPs deciding instead of Govt.

No matter what the truth is the Congress MPs will come up with new canards.

Opposition argument is political and not factual.
And BTW they are not even the Opposition but a minor rump party .

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Philip » 28 Aug 2018 15:50

You can't bypass the PSC .They have a right to be briefed.
In fact it is the PCS that has been in the forefront reminding various govts. of the day of delays in decision- making and the critically required systems. Just for the record.Comparative costs of some other western fighters.

Slovakia: $2.9B for just 14 F-16Vs! Along with this are a host of other eqpt., AESA radars, 130+ AAMs, AMRAAMs and Sidewinders plus PGM kits, pods, etc.
This works out to a unit cost of just over $200M for the package.Our 36 Rafales, larger and more capable birds came in at a cost not more than $8.0 to $8.5B but with more goodies in the package.This is almost similar, or a little more per unit cost in comparison with the F- 16 Slovakian deal.

Israel is also offering 12 second-hand F-16Ds to Croatia for $500M, just over $40M a pop.
Kuwait is to get 28 F-18E/Fs for $1.5B,

Qatar another 12 Rafales in addition to the 24 contracted for $7.5B.At those rates, 36 Rafales for Qatar would cost approx.$10.5B+, at least $2 B more in comparison with the IAF's 36.The GOI/ MOD should embark upon a PR offensive highlighting some of the above deals and the cost of our deal.

On the Ru export front, steady sales of SU-30 SMs, the Ru
version of an MKI continue even for the RuAF.Yak-130 AJT/ GA sales keep climbing.

However, the key factor in the Raffy deal is the Meteor BVR AAM, with a range of over 100+ km.The missile is slated to be carried by Rafales and our MKIs, possibly Tejas too.This is considered essential to counter Pak and China.The PAF already possess AMRAAMs.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Katare » 28 Aug 2018 21:36

That (briefing and audit by constitutional bodies like PSC and CAG) will happen in due course of time. By agreeing to do it out of term on Congress's demand will be outrageously stupid move.

Congress can always approach Supreme Court, if they have proof of wrong doing. That is what happened during UPA2, bunch of people went to court, presented their proofs and SC ordered a probe. In this case only party that went to court is Reliance, that clearly shows they are on solid grounds and congress is a bag full of hot gas.

In my opinion the best strategy for GoI is to not do a thing officially, congress rhetoric should be matched with even harsher rhetoric from ruling party.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Philip » 29 Aug 2018 13:33

No one is advocating a knee-jerk reaction to Cong. mouthings.It can happen when scheduled. In my opinion they've shot their bolt and too early to influence the voter significantly.The Cong./ UPA scams are still fresh in voter memory.

The GOI should not however freeze with the future acquisitions and bargain for the best deal possible saving as much time too.Tbe decks can be cleared for a formal decision to be made after the polls.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 29 Aug 2018 18:53

Trying to make sense of the numbers being bandied around I have tried to simplify the bare bones of the deal to explain to everyone who is parroting the current set of anti-deal accusations. Here's my attempt at a quick and dirty reckoner.

Full details and important rebuttal sources here.

Snapshot of deal
Image

P.S. Whenever someone tries to throw strange numbers at the deal, it makes life much easier if you could make them stick to one currency and ask them to back it up with new reports. Quickly exposes that madrasa math being bandied about by the opponents of the deal.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Viv S » 29 Aug 2018 21:47

Philip wrote:Slovakia: $2.9B for just 14 F-16Vs! Along with this are a host of other eqpt., AESA radars, 130+ AAMs, AMRAAMs and Sidewinders plus PGM kits, pods, etc.
This works out to a unit cost of just over $200M for the package.

No source there I see commissar. FYI-

It’s €1.589 bn or $1.86 bn for 14 F-16Vs according to the Slovakian MoD. Works out to be $132 mil/unit. Includes munitions, training and a two year logistics deal.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby souravB » 29 Aug 2018 23:55

BJP goes into offensive

after watching the whole interview I think, the lady should've done her research. The questions were at most intelligible, not intelligent.
waiting for another appearance of somebody from BJP on a Defense Journo's program.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rakesh » 01 Sep 2018 01:25

Don’t ground the Rafale
https://indianexpress.com/article/opini ... e-5334483/

Written by Air Chief Marshal Srinivasapuram Krishnaswamy (Retd) | Published: September 01, 2018
The writer is former Chief of Air Staff


The Indian Air Force is on the verge of getting an advanced technology combat aircraft, the Rafale, that surpasses the capability of most of its existing fleet and that of its adversaries. Careful evaluation has confirmed its capability and potential. But recent public debate has taken the worst possible turn, discrediting the deal and blaming the government and the prime minister in public. The government has been equally strong in countering the allegations. The tit-for-tat has plunged to the nadir of decency in political debate in India. The Opposition is dragging the government to make a public statement knowing well that secrecy clauses in inter-governmental agreements do not permit such disclosure. The government cannot get into a dispute by public disclosure of information they had agreed to protect. Apart from the cost details, the standard-of-preparation of the Indian Rafale is sensitive and different from those supplied to others, including to the French Air Force. If the Opposition wants the details of the cost, Parliament could debate the price in a secret session as permitted by Clause 245-252 of Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in the Lok Sabha without publicly exposing the technical standard of the aircraft.

The air staff requirement for the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) was finalised by Air HQ in 2008. Rafale and the Eurofighter were shortlisted, both were found to meet the requirements. Rafale was selected in 2012 being the lowest bidder (L1). But the UPA government did not sign the deal. Dassault Aviation refused to take responsibility for the work-share of HAL. On all previous licence productions, the concerned Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) never stood guarantee on aircraft manufactured by HAL under licence. But the Air Force insisted on such a guarantee due to the unsatisfactory performance of HAL in the past. Furthermore, HAL assessed manhours to produce the aircraft to be nearly three times that taken by the OEM, which the government felt to be too high. The deal went into the freezer.

The years slipped by without a decision, pushing the Air Force into a corner. It faced serious difficulty in meeting its operational responsibility with a dwindling fighter squadron asset. In 2014, the IAF projected their urgent need for 36 aircraft. Taking their cues from the available information on Rafale, the government decided to purchase the urgently needed 36 in a comprehensive package that could make the new aircraft operational at the earliest. It would have been the quickest possible since a substantial portion of discussions had already been completed. The inter-government contract was signed in 2016. The impasse that arose on the licence production contract was thus circumvented. The package included the Meteor missile having extraordinary range, short range air to air missiles and other weapons. Additionally, it included training systems, performance-based logistics support for two squadrons, enhanced period of maintenance support and full maintenance support at two bases. It was a comprehensive package and the quickest possible to operationalise a new induction. The earlier contract envisaged in 2012 was only for the production of bare aircraft that would have called for many separate additional contracts to procure weapons and other operational packages.

These additions would have dragged on for years and added a few thousand crores to the cost. When the Mirage-2000 was procured, the government was blamed for buying the aircraft without the weapons that came much later. The comprehensive package for Rafale would avoid a repeat of that situation. Offsets on any purchase provide opportunities for national industries to participate and expand their capabilities and business. The OEM (M/s Dassault and their partners) could choose any offset partner in India from a list of 100 or more. M/s Reliance figures in the list. The Rafale deal of 2016 involved a 50% offset clause that will involve 30 per cent investment by Dassault for military aerospace R&D, and 20 per cent for manufacturing Rafale components in India. Importantly, none of the 36 aircraft being supplied to India are likely to have parts produced in India (by offset partners). All aircraft would be delivered between 2019 and 2022.

Unrelated to this, Reliance ADAG has a 49% DRAL, the joint venture formed with Dassault. This JV is intended to make only aero structures for Dassault’s Falcon 2000 civil aircraft that has no bearing on the Rafale deal. However, if there has been any manoeuvring done to favour Reliance in any way, it must be investigated. Our democracy is well protected from misadventures or mistakes. Independent authorities such as the CAG have the powers to audit budget, expenditure and performance of MOD and the services. The CVC maintains vigilance against impropriety and has powers to investigate independently. Major purchases such as Rafale go through a pre-audit to bring out glaring omissions or commissions. The PAC keeps an eye at the macro level.

We faced many brick-bats in the past related to inductions in the Indian Air Force. The PAC examining the Jaguar deal in 1987 concluded that the money (Rs 1,500 crore) had gone down the drain because the planes were outdated. Interestingly, no one is flying the Jaguar in 2018 other than the IAF. The Air Force is now planning to upgrade these and give a fresh life of another 25 years. The IAF had been compelled to continue with the old aircraft since new inductions invariably get stuck despite funds being available. While the politicians fought, and bureaucrats sat on files, time took its toll. It got so bad in the 1990s that we were compelled to procure some 20-30 grounded MIG-21s from East European countries. This second-hand purchase was necessary to keep the Air Force going. Over two decades later, nothing seems to have changed. We are back to political battles, uncaring about the status of our military.

The issue facing the country is about how the government can provide the military with quality operational systems in reasonable time within the budget. The process of acquisition is only to ensure that it is done in a systematic manner. Regrettably, the process has become so complex that the objective is neglected. The UPA/Congress governments had faced nasty debates and comments for decades on defence acquisition. The Jaguar, Mirage-2000 and Su-30MKI acquisitions were severely criticised. The long-forgotten Westland WG-30 deal of 1985 faced harsh criticism when 21 of these bought for Pawan Hans and VVIP travel had to be junked after accidents. Decisions are often delayed beyond the expiry of the offer. We end up creating more committees and structures and expand procedures in the name of streamlining. But inspite of harsh debates and attempts to sabotage, the induction of Jaguars, the Mirage-2000 and the Su-30MKI continued. Thanks are due to those who pushed the decisions against odds. Arguments devoid of merit have an adverse effect on our credibility and create a poor impression of our country. The morale of our military takes a beating. We as a nation must debate while staying with decency and facts. Accountability to the nation must be driven home, on which no one should be spared.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Eric Thompson » 01 Sep 2018 20:53

Question: if the Modi government's price for Rafale deal was so much better than UPA's price for the Rafale, Why didn't Modi go for the full 126 fighters?

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby saumitra_j » 01 Sep 2018 21:06

Eric Thompson wrote:Question: if the Modi government's price for Rafale deal was so much better than UPA's price for the Rafale, Why didn't Modi go for the full 126 fighters?


Costs - the country simply cannot afford to buy more without breaking the bank. The UPA 2 thingy was not a deal, it was just an announcement without any budget allocation or signing of contract. If the economy improves, NDA 3 might go for more but as of now, 36 is what we get.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Eric Thompson » 01 Sep 2018 21:47

saumitra_j wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:Question: if the Modi government's price for Rafale deal was so much better than UPA's price for the Rafale, Why didn't Modi go for the full 126 fighters?


Costs - the country simply cannot afford to buy more without breaking the bank. The UPA 2 thingy was not a deal, it was just an announcement without any budget allocation or signing of contract. If the economy improves, NDA 3 might go for more but as of now, 36 is what we get.



Unfortunately, things are not that simple and straight forward.

UPA wanted the MMRCA deal to go to Russian MIG-35.

At ~$50 million per unit, 126 fighters would have costed ~$6.5 Billion. Add Ammunition, Spares & support the over all deal would have been ~$8-10 Billion. This was the figure that Indians had heard for years.

But IAF was averse to inducting any Russian fighters as they traditionally always preferred Western fighters. Hence they selected Rafale and Eurofighter instead.

Since HAL was traditionally closer to Russia due to India's historical relationship, they quoted high manufacturing prices for Rafale which made the already expensive Rafales even more expensive.

The result UPA put the MMRCA in cold storage for it to die with time.

When US leaning Modi came to power, he wanted to bring US back into the game but the technical selection by IAF had already eliminated the US fighters. So he used the cost of Rafale as an excuse to cancel the MMRCA 1.0 deal while ordering 36 Rafales to placate the French.

Later, Modi had restarted the MMRCA 2.0 to bring the US fighter into the game eliminating the need for the vendor to partner with HAL while negating the IAF's technical selection of Rafale and Eurofighter.

Now Russia has started firing at the Rafale scam through Russia leaning UPA. This is indirectly helping Modi as now only the US fighter would be clean. IAF would be happy to pick F-16 over MIG-35 as the prospects for Rafale under MMRCA 2.0 are almost gone.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Srutayus » 01 Sep 2018 23:24

country simply cannot afford to buy more without breaking the bank
To elaborate, the costs including maintenance, spares, weapons etc. were so high as to affect the entire defense budget for years with little room for anything else. The costs from the possible acquisition of the Rafale were stated as reasons for the IAF's reluctance on the FGFA program too.

Also, a larger order would involve local assembly, etc., more negotiation, not to mention the eloborate costing, contractual and budgeting exercise which could have run for a few years and may not have yielded a result. The actual planes coming even further after that.
The 36 was based on what the IAF saw as the minimum necessity for immediate purchase given the situation with depleting squadrons etc. This has been said numerous times including in the article by Air Chief Marshal Krishnaswamy
(Read.) that Rakesh posted above.
Let us stick to the facts instead of weaving elaborate and far fetched conspiracy theories atleast here on BRF. The truth is simpler and straightforward.

One thing to thank Parrikar for is the backing he gave to the LCA. One hopes that this in seen as the way forward for the numbers needed in the coming years, even while noting that the Rafale is a superb platform.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Rahul M » 01 Sep 2018 23:51

Eric T, that's one long and elaborate theory ! I presume you do have hard facts backing this theory so people dont consider it a CT, right ?

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby abhik » 02 Sep 2018 00:03

saumitra_j wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:Question: if the Modi government's price for Rafale deal was so much better than UPA's price for the Rafale, Why didn't Modi go for the full 126 fighters?


Costs - the country simply cannot afford to buy more without breaking the bank. The UPA 2 thingy was not a deal, it was just an announcement without any budget allocation or signing of contract. If the economy improves, NDA 3 might go for more but as of now, 36 is what we get.

I doubt there would have been a huge difference in cost if we went for the full 126 when looking at the annual expenditure, if we can afford $9 billion over 6 years we could probably spend $30 billion over 12-15 years.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Eric Thompson » 02 Sep 2018 00:37

abhik wrote:
saumitra_j wrote:
Costs - the country simply cannot afford to buy more without breaking the bank. The UPA 2 thingy was not a deal, it was just an announcement without any budget allocation or signing of contract. If the economy improves, NDA 3 might go for more but as of now, 36 is what we get.

I doubt there would have been a huge difference in cost if we went for the full 126 when looking at the annual expenditure, if we can afford $9 billion over 6 years we could probably spend $30 billion over 12-15 years.


Well said. Cost was never the issue. It was just an excuse.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Eric Thompson » 02 Sep 2018 02:15

Rahul M wrote:Eric T, that's one long and elaborate theory ! I presume you do have hard facts backing this theory so people dont consider it a CT, right ?


Sir,

Theories by their own definition mean that they cannot be facts. So technically any theory can be classified as a conspiracy theory if one does not like it.

Now coming to my post, following are indisputable facts

1) MIG-35 is cheapest of the lot

2) Original RFP mandated HAL to be the partner

3) The deal was always estimated to be ~$10 billion (Rs. 42,000 crores) and there were stories to get Rafale out of the way.

Request for Proposal for 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft Issued

http://www.pib.nic.in/newsite/erelconte ... elid=30522

DASSAULT RAFALE OUT OF $10 BILLION MMRCA DEAL

The French Rafale fighter has been knocked out of the $10 billion (Rs. 42,000 crore) contract to provide 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) for the Indian Air Force (IAF). Defence Ministry (MOD) sources indicated that the Rafale had ‘fallen short’ on several requirements detailed in the GSQRs (general staff qualitative requirements) spelt out by the IAF. The fighters left in the fray were now the American made F/A-18 ’Super Hornet’ (Boeing) and F-16 Falcon (Lockheed Martin), Russian MiG-35 (United Aircraft Corporation), Swedish Gripen (Saab) and Eurofighter Typhoon (consortium of British, German, Spanish and Italian companies). These fighters are expected to take part in trails expected to begin from July-August. The IAF expects to buy 18 jets off-the-shelf, and rest would be manufactured in India under the transfer of technology agreement by 2012-20131.


https://idsa.in/TWIR/4_3_2009_MMRCA


4) It is fact that IAF loved M2K and are upgrading them at a very steep price when compared to MIG-29 upgrade.

India receives first upgraded Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47042694.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst


5) It is a fact that IAF would have gone for additional M2K had GoI not forced them to accept MIG-29 instead in the 1980s. Even prior to MMRCA, IAF wanted to go for additional M2K.

Initially the Mirage-2000 was identified as the most suitable type for induction to fill the
medium slot for which there was a requirement of 126 aircraft with a possible extension
by another 63 aircraft. Closure of the French Mirage-2000 assembly line, however, forced
a look further afield and the MMRCA Request for Information (RFI) was issued in 2001
after IAF conveyed its need for 126 such aircraft to the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in year
2000. A stopgap request from IAF to MoD, in year 2003, to buy 50 Mirage-2000s to shore
up the existing Mirage-2000 aircraft in service, thus preventing a rapid fall in fielded
squadrons and especially in the medium segment of the force, was refused by the MoD.
The MoD instead asked IAF to go in for a larger fresh tender. The tender for the MMRCA
was issued in August 2007.


https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/164294/IB ... vkapur.pdf

6) Lifecycle costs were added to RFP to ensure M2K and Rafale had a better chance against MIG-29/MIG-35 which had a favorable per unit cost vs any other fighter.

7) It is a fact that HAL costs for Rafale production were higher

There was no deal under the UPA Government. Transfer of Technology remained the primary issue of concern between the two sides. Dassault Aviation was also not willing to take the responsibility of quality control of production of 108 aircraft in India. While Dassault provisioned for 3 crore man hours for production of the aircraft in India, HAL’s estimate was nearly 3 times higher, escalating costs manifold


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 769792.cms

8) It was a fact that UPA government put the MMRCA in cold storage and was on the death bed when Modi took office.

Contract negotiations remained incomplete even after 2 years, in 2014 due to a lack of agreement on various terms of RFP compliance and cost related issues

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 769792.cms

9) It is fact the US vendors are back in the game in the revised MMRCA. If IAF's technical evaluation meant anything only Rafale and Eurofighter should have been part of the revised tender.

It is now reported that a fresh tender for 110 fighter aircraft (hereafter, MMRCA 2.0) has commenced. Although the details are yet to emerge, the latest tender—the RFI for which was sent, interestingly, to the same bunch of producers—is expected to proceed at a usual pace, and it is assumed that the RFP for the tender could well be sent to the vendors by mid-2019

https://www.financialexpress.com/defenc ... c/1286824/


So my so called conspiracy theory was in fact based on chronology of indisputable facts.

Everyone who wants to see the facts with no bias can see it while others would continue to label this as a conspiracy theory.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby ashish raval » 02 Sep 2018 02:49

Theories by their own definition mean that they cannot be facts. So technically any theory can be classified as a conspiracy theory if one does not like it.


Afaik, a theory has to be a) substantiated b) explanatory c) predictive and d) testable.

Your statements neither is a) not b) as he only partially b and c) so I would consider it mere pastiche of imagination like helicopters and alien ships drawn by caveman 50k years back.

Good imagination but it is nothing more than me saying Brexit deal will not happen and bumbling Boris will be PM before next march and UK will be trading under WTO with EU..looks interesting but that is what it is!!

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Eric Thompson » 02 Sep 2018 03:13

ashish raval wrote:
Theories by their own definition mean that they cannot be facts. So technically any theory can be classified as a conspiracy theory if one does not like it.


Afaik, a theory has to be a) substantiated b) explanatory c) predictive and d) testable.

Your statements neither is a) not b) as he only partially b and c) so I would consider it mere pastiche of imagination like helicopters and alien ships drawn by caveman 50k years back.

Good imagination but it is nothing more than me saying Brexit deal will not happen and bumbling Boris will be PM before next march and UK will be trading under WTO with EU..looks interesting but that is what it is!!


Of course I did elaborate my post substantiating with facts but one could always turn a blind eye to suit their biases. That is fine by me. I am not here to convert and baptize people.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Austin » 02 Sep 2018 08:15

Eric Thompson wrote:Question: if the Modi government's price for Rafale deal was so much better than UPA's price for the Rafale, Why didn't Modi go for the full 126 fighters?



Very Valid point and some one did not raise this.

They should have gone for 126 Rafale , if Modi could get a reduce cost of 36 AC they would have got a better bargain for 126 AC in G2G deal

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Kashi » 02 Sep 2018 08:29

Eric Thompson wrote:6) Lifecycle costs were added to RFP to ensure M2K and Rafale had a better chance against MIG-29/MIG-35 which had a favorable per unit cost vs any other fighter.


So you admit that despite cheaper per unit costs, Mig29/Mig-35 would have turned out to be (as we know from IAF experience) far more expensive to maintain over longer term and that is what became evident when lifecycle costs were included?

So you are whining because fighters that would have costed India more to maintain in the longer term were NOT favoured over jets that would incur lower expenditure over their lifetime?

You are right, this is not a conspiracy, this is asinine.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby ashish raval » 02 Sep 2018 09:11

Austin wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:Question: if the Modi government's price for Rafale deal was so much better than UPA's price for the Rafale, Why didn't Modi go for the full 126 fighters?



Very Valid point and some one did not raise this.

They should have gone for 126 Rafale , if Modi could get a reduce cost of 36 AC they would have got a better bargain for 126 AC in G2G deal


My 2p.
Rafale is different category beast compared to M2K. India do not have strong technical ability for its maintenance and service experience. Off-late the trend in the defense deals everywhere including domestic markets of the west is to have a turnkey project otherwise if the servicing provider is different from manufacturers it gives lot of issues. With France being bound to provide 75% serviceability and India don't want to be sanctioned by American for spares in future by stroke of a pen and Pakistan not having access to knowledge these aircraft abilities (only other being Russian, Scandinavian birds) and Rafale proven to be one of two top bird; it made sense to go for it. The pressing need was for smaller number as we could have developed lot of technology in-house in 5-8 years on LCA MK2 to make it potent aircraft.
Apart from these, if newer bird comes up on the scene between now and 2020, it could be included too like JSF for future contest. If nothing we can simply extend Rafale contract for another 110 aircrafts and get even better long term deal if France is committed to keeping Rafale assembly line till 2040 etc.
There can be n number of reasons listed out in favour of Rafale and the current deal notwithstanding above. I don't see any conspiracy theory in this at all.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Eric Thompson » 02 Sep 2018 10:17

Kashi wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:6) Lifecycle costs were added to RFP to ensure M2K and Rafale had a better chance against MIG-29/MIG-35 which had a favorable per unit cost vs any other fighter.


So you admit that despite cheaper per unit costs, Mig29/Mig-35 would have turned out to be (as we know from IAF experience) far more expensive to maintain over longer term and that is what became evident when lifecycle costs were included?

So you are whining because fighters that would have costed India more to maintain in the longer term were NOT favoured over jets that would incur lower expenditure over their lifetime?

You are right, this is not a conspiracy, this is asinine.


Whining? Why would I do that? You are just presuming that I am anti-French/Anti-Rafale.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Kashi » 02 Sep 2018 10:23

Eric Thompson wrote:Whining? Why would I do that? You are just presuming that I am anti-French/Anti-Rafale.


You are assuming that I am assuming that. And yes, it does come across as whining.

I only pointed out the contradiction in your "theory".

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Eric Thompson » 02 Sep 2018 10:29

Austin wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:Question: if the Modi government's price for Rafale deal was so much better than UPA's price for the Rafale, Why didn't Modi go for the full 126 fighters?



Very Valid point and some one did not raise this.

They should have gone for 126 Rafale , if Modi could get a reduce cost of 36 AC they would have got a better bargain for 126 AC in G2G deal


I wish Modi had gone for the full 126+63 deal.

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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Postby Eric Thompson » 02 Sep 2018 10:30

Kashi wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:Whining? Why would I do that? You are just presuming that I am anti-French/Anti-Rafale.


You are assuming that I am assuming that. And yes, it does come across as whining.

I only pointed out the contradiction in your "theory".


There is no contradiction whatsoever in my post. Please read again to clear your confusion.


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