Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2017 06:41

Karthik S wrote: but we need to have every inch scanned to 1000KM from our border.

This is where you and I have the power to contribute so we can inform each other and make better assessments of the possible and the unlikely - by simply firing up Google Earth and putting 2-3 placemarks a day on something you do (or don't) recognize for consultation with others

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2017 07:03

ranjan.rao wrote:They can stockpile spares, ammo and supplies to support men and equipment. Have they done it yet? Does not seem to be the case from Shiv sir's analysis.

The fact that they do this is well known. And I have plenty more images to show where they might be doing this stockpiling - it's just that this information did not appear in those first two videos.

The Chinese will keep a minimum number of personnel for internal security and border duties. If trouble arises they wil pour men in and those men will simply open up the storehouses with equipment ready to be used. My effort, from the day I started this thread has been to try and locate where they store such stuff apart from infrastructure and assets.

There are two problems related to "pouring troops into Tibet". The first is high altitude sickness and the other is food supply. I have now identified several military establishments where they could house a sufficiently large body of men at 3500 meters for stage 1 acclimatization. However It would normally take such men another 2 weeks to get acclimatized to 4500 meters and I have not been able to find too much in that regard.

Tibet has a marginal food supply situation and a hostile population. The hostility will only increase if troops mop up the available food. So while tinned/dried foods could be stored along with arms and equipment - fresh supplies will have to be shipped in daily - mostly via multiple trains. This is where crippling the train line is important and it should not be difficult given the extremely large number of bridges built on permafrost that can be knocked out.

However the Chinese are not stupid. Any action/war will be preceded by a period where thousands of troops and thousands of tons of supplies will be shipped in by train openly so everyone can see. It will be a "cause for concern" if China starts doing this and we have to assume the worst and prepare for war when they start doing this. Judging from what I can see on Google Earth - a 1962 type infiltration of troops is not going to happen without much reinforcement which will be visible to us. At the time most of these images on GE were taken - there was no "heavy troop deployment" on the Chinese side except near Tawang and Nathu La. Videos yet to be uploaded

Just a little pointer on how to identify Chinese military sites on Google Earth. Typically they have many of the following features:

Walled compound with single access road and guarded gate
Large buildings like barracks/blocks of flats as well as large open areas for parking vehicles
Buildings are grey or camouflaged and less likely to have bright blue and green rooftops seen in civilian buildings
Army trucks parked in neat rows - sometimes just 6 or 7, sometimes dozens or hundreds
There may be one or more helipads
Occasionally sat dishes or other comm equipment
For some strange reason military compounds are almost invariably lined with tall leaf-less trees (maybe pine) which look like AAPs jhaadus placed on their handles. Often no civilian structure nearby will have such trees

Only in Golmud have I seen tanks and what appear to be missile carrying trucks - all in olive green. Near the borders there are several clearings that could be pre-surveyed missile/artillery sites

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2017 07:30

I repeat yet again that educated Indian minds are deeply ignorant of the circumstances that led to the 1962 debacle. Everyone knows that it was a disaster but no one - whether he is a bright IIT entrant or a 50 year old successful CEO, knows why things happened that way. It also does not help when military historians use names like Chushul and Sela pass that are not marked on our school maps. The more I look at my own country the more the idea is reinforced in my mind that we are a largely ignorant nation. All these years we did not have access to information. But we do now.

1962 was a series of blunders - this everyone knows. And everyone is ready to say "We will make those blunders again" or "We are making those blunders again". But no one really knows what the hell those blunders were. With this level of ignorance of relations with China it is not possible to make an informed assessment. Shitting brix is the only option left to us.

Everyone also knows that Nehru made many blunders along with worthies like Kaul. But what were the exact blunders? If you don't know you will not understand and people spend entire lifetimes dhoti shivering from what is simple ignorance coupled with fearful superstition.

This must change.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Mar 2017 10:25

Shiv you will find it interesting to read this in full. came in ET today. the writer is a corporate lawyer in beijing which begs the question how he got to write a op-ed in ET while you and I cannot get 1 line there. it fits in with typical cheen way of giving threats by using 'junior official in the foreign ministry' ... ET seems to have started paid msmgiri not just for domestic players but now FDI also

it is about CPEC making a steroidal tiger out of TSP

http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.c ... ad-policy/

looking at comments section good to see people have seen through the game

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 28 Mar 2017 10:38

There has to be a cost for media to peddle such views from hostile countries.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Mar 2017 10:41

either one of the cause or one of the effect of the PM pulling out of the ET economic conclave and AS telling jain saab they know what game he is playing. see the NGO and psyops thread

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2017 14:32

Singha wrote:Shiv you will find it interesting to read this in full. came in ET today. the writer is a corporate lawyer in beijing which begs the question how he got to write a op-ed in ET while you and I cannot get 1 line there. it fits in with typical cheen way of giving threats by using 'junior official in the foreign ministry' ... ET seems to have started paid msmgiri not just for domestic players but now FDI also

it is about CPEC making a steroidal tiger out of TSP

http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.c ... ad-policy/

looking at comments section good to see people have seen through the game

Chinese articles, like Chinese people who post here often include derision and contempt for the other person's views, condition or policies and then patronizingly go ahead to advise them to do something different - as the Chinese may want. For the uninitiated reader the rhetoric may seem ominous - but when one gets used to it - it can be discarded as the usual crap from China.

This method of talking down to others is a typical Chinese characteristic. They are going to make Pakistan an economic superpower? Good for the Pakis. They will love it I am sure

chola · Post by **chola** » 28 Mar 2017 15:30

shiv wrote:I repeat yet again that educated Indian minds are deeply ignorant of the circumstances that led to the 1962 debacle. Everyone knows that it was a disaster but no one - whether he is a bright IIT entrant or a 50 year old successful CEO, knows why things happened that way. It also does not help when military historians use names like Chushul and Sela pass that are not marked on our school maps. The more I look at my own country the more the idea is reinforced in my mind that we are a largely ignorant nation. All these years we did not have access to information. But we do now.

1962 was a series of blunders - this everyone knows. And everyone is ready to say "We will make those blunders again" or "We are making those blunders again". But no one really knows what the hell those blunders were. With this level of ignorance of relations with China it is not possible to make an informed assessment. Shitting brix is the only option left to us.

Everyone also knows that Nehru made many blunders along with worthies like Kaul. But what were the exact blunders? If you don't know you will not understand and people spend entire lifetimes dhoti shivering from what is simple ignorance coupled with fearful superstition.

This must change.

Shivji, I've been saying this for years on end. We are shit ignorant of the one globally relevant country on our borders. And not just in military matters but even more importantly in economic ones as well.

Unlike the West and Japan (and Korea) who have massive resources on the ground in the PRC, we have shit and end up relying on third hand phoren reports or the propaganda tools direct from the chicom's mouth.

Ignorance breeds contempt and fear in equal parts. We either dismiss everything they do as propaganda or we shit brix to what we imagine they might do.

We cannot formulate proper strategy without information. But we cannot get proper information without proper research and discussion. Currently, we have no research and we cannot discuss China properly without falling into either contempt or dhoti shivering.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Mar 2017 17:06

whatever little china studies depts in india we have in places like JNU are likely deeply dominated by the communist academics and hence of now use in proposing realistic policies. the number of people who can read and write mandarin in india is really really low - far lower than french , german or spanish for sure.

I would imagine the global banks and mutual funds who operate and invest in china, and global MNCs have a much better picture than our MSM and academics.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2017 17:32

chola wrote: We cannot formulate proper strategy without information. But we cannot get proper information without proper research and discussion. Currently, we have no research and we cannot discuss China properly without falling into either contempt or dhoti shivering.

What you say is dead right and I risk collapsing into a long rant about our own (Indian) teaching of history.

Just like school kids from my generation down to today know Aurangzeb or Akbar and not the Chola empire, we remain ignorant of the strange names and places of the East. I would like to wave a magic wand and change the entire education system, but I will have to restrict myself to doing a small bit to familiarize people with the geography and names like Namka chu, Tawang, Sela pass, Walong etc so that those people can have some idea of what is being said if they were to subsequently pick up a book about tbe events of 1962.

Reading Kunal Verma's book it is clear that Nehru and his advisors were as ignorant of geography and geopolitical facts as people outside the armed forces continue to be to this day. But historians are also guilty of not doing enough to help readers relate to their writing with relevant maps because those names from history simply cannot be located easily on most maps

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Mar 2017 18:02

Don't get me started on our appalling level of ignorance on the events related to 1962. Kunal Verma's book is the best I've read on the subject, but I've had to spend hours with Google maps to really appreciate what went wrong then and why it is unlikely the same operational errors will be repeated.
It wasn't just Nehru and Gen Kaul. The army's leadership from brigade level upwards, in 1962, was found wanting.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Mar 2017 18:55

Singha wrote:whatever little china studies depts in india we have in places like JNU are likely deeply dominated by the communist academics and hence of now use in proposing realistic policies. the number of people who can read and write mandarin in india is really really low - far lower than french , german or spanish for sure.

I would imagine the global banks and mutual funds who operate and invest in china, and global MNCs have a much better picture than our MSM and academics.

In the 70's and 80's, Russian was the most popular foreign language taught at West point, for obvious reasons. Today, it's Arabic & Persian. Our military academies have not evolved to the same extent. I wouldn't be surprised if French is a more popular subject at the NDA today than Mandarin.

People at MNC's and International banks who deal with China ( I know a few) also usually see a version of China that the CPC wants them to see.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2017 21:38

Deans wrote:Don't get me started on our appalling level of ignorance on the events related to 1962. Kunal Verma's book is the best I've read in the subject but I've had to spend hours with Google maps to really appreciate what went wrong then and why it is unlikely the same operational errors won't be repeated.
It wasn't just Nehru and Gen Kaul. The army's leadership from brigade level upwards, in 1962, was found wanting.

These last few posts just gave me an idea. I spent the last 2 hours cross referencing from various sites and located Namka Chu, Thagla ridge etc and the sites of the sad and sordid battles where our men were massacred because of political ignorance and Gen Kaul's incompetence. These sites are almost impossible to find on any single map - but ultimately one can pinpoint into Google earth with some effort

i will try and tell the story of how that came about. Will add that one to my list

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 28 Mar 2017 22:38

^^^ BMK was a master sycophant.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2017 22:51

Cosmo_R wrote:^^^ BMK was a master sycophant.

There were so many errors.

Assam rifles was a hardened military unit familiar with the area, but were classified as a police unit
The army had no connection or awareness of the Tawang area
A border checkpost was set up in a place that was probably just into Chinese territory - in error
The Chinese asked the troops to vacate
News reached Delhi and Nehru said that the army will handle it. Suddenly, the army, with no earlier connection had to do something.
Assam rifles who knew the area was sidelined
A senior army officer (Dalvi I think) tried to point out that the Indian post was at the bottom of a narrow valley with Chinese troops in the heights and was not defendable
Gen Kaul was brought in. He was a sycophant and a poor general with no real experience of leading combat troops
Kaul rushed in 3000 unprepared, underequipped troops to that narrow valley (Namka Chu) under the eyes of Chinese guns
The Chinese brought in 30,000 battle hardened troops fresh from Korea, armed with AK 47s
We got buggered. Our men got slaughtered
Lata Mangeshkar sang song. Nehru shed tears

ranjan.rao · Post by **ranjan.rao** » 28 Mar 2017 22:57

Wasnt BMK asked to go on leave or fell victim to altitude sickness?

ranjan.rao · Post by **ranjan.rao** » 28 Mar 2017 23:08

regarding your point of less knowledge about chinese info. There is also an opacity on the part of govt regarding the recent events e.g. what happened in despang la in 2013 or in chumar & Demchok in 2014. Did we eventually fall back from our positions. Events like these are opportunities to highlight the evil intentions of the enemy with a flavor of past

ranjan.rao · Post by **ranjan.rao** » 28 Mar 2017 23:17

Also, your videos a great job in changing this ignorance. While I was familiar with some of the names you mentioned in videos, but the geographical details u provided were certainly helpful

SandeepS · Post by **SandeepS** » 29 Mar 2017 01:25

Deans wrote: ...I wouldn't be surprised if French is a more popular subject at the NDA today than Mandarin.

You couldn't be further from facts...not only Mandarin but also Tibetan, Burmese, Pushto are taught at NDA and are well subscribed by the cdts. Have a look at MoD's School of Foreign Languages website the languages that are taught. SFL is responsible for syllabi and assessment of foreign language at NDA, AEC and even IFS.

Please give some credit to the intelligence & culture of our forces, they are professionals and not some rag-tag jumped-up militia.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 29 Mar 2017 06:39

actually there is a very nice map in Brig. Dalvi's book..which accurately maps the area. I had no trouble following it and then checking it on google maps. Have not read Kunals book but Dalvi's book makes for v depressing reading ..the brainless chacha nehru and kaul Saheb and Krishna Menon ( whom i hold more guilty than nehru)

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 29 Mar 2017 07:56

manjgu wrote:actually there is a very nice map in Brig. Dalvi's book..which accurately maps the area. I had no trouble following it and then checking it on google maps. Have not read Kunals book but Dalvi's book makes for v depressing reading ..the brainless chacha nehru and kaul Saheb and Krishna Menon ( whom i hold more guilty than nehru)

Thanks for the heads up

Here is an ecopy in various formats
https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.127062

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 29 Mar 2017 08:47

I had been thinking of making a video of the railway infra from China to Lhasa, Tibet. I may do that yet but I have put it on the backburner because there is more to be "said" in text rather than to be seen as images regarding that railway line.

First off, there is no denying that the Chinese have engineered a major tech achievement. Not previously unknown tech but never implemented on such a large scale in a marginal environment.

The roads from Chinese cities in the east which I described in the road videos have to pass through some mountains that and over 5 km high in places. But road travel allows hairpin bends in areas which trains cannot have. So the Chinese bypassed the mountains by going way way north to their Qinghai province. Qinghai is at a latitude of 36 degrees - which is about as far north/south as middle of Amreeka, Spain, southern Italy. From Xining in Qinghai the railway line goes west, skirting the mountains in the south up to Golmud. From Golmud the track heads south towards Lhasa and also has to climb up the Tibetan plateau.

We all know from our Macaulayite geography books that Southern Italy and Spain have a subtropical climate. That is the same climate that Tibet would have had if it was at sea level. But because it is 4500 meters up in the clouds Tibet has permafrost. Permafrost is not ice. It is soil with frozen water extending dozens of meters down. As long as the temperature remains below 0 deg C, the water remains frozen. But in some areas the temperature can rise to 1 to 2 degrees or more in summer. If a railway line is built on this - the line will collapse in summer. What Chinese engineers have done is to figure out which areas stay below 0 deg C all year round and which areas rise above that. In the areas where the temperature remains cold they have built on the surface itself and used special techniques and materials to ensure that the soil remains frozen under the tracks even if the temperatures rise a little. Of course these areas are at risk with global temperature rise. In other areas they have simply built elevated lines with deep foundations - so the railway line from Golmud to Lhasa has hundreds of bridges/elevated sections as well as tunnels. In case of war all these sections will be vulnerable to air attack.

While it may take many days to reach Lhasa by road from Chendgu (which is 700 km east of the tip of Arunachal Pradesh) - it takes 19 hours from Golmud - and maybe 2 days from further east via the railway line.

The main petroleum source for Tibet is in Golmud. I have not studied eastern China but regarding Tibet - Golmud has the largest collection of military vehicles and storage as well as oil refineries. I read an article of how the Chinese poured in troops into Lhasa within hours of unrest starting a few years ago. It is certainly possible to get in troops and tanks by train in a day from Golmud.

One thing is certain. If the Chinese ever try to grab territory as they did in the past - air power will be crucial in crippling their effort. With Lhasa being just 200 km from the border and Xigaze and Linzhi/Nyingchi closer than that - the infrastructure is vulnerable even to attacks by Tejas and Brahmos. Or else we can opt to let the Chinese pour in troops and ask our Air force to twiddle their thumbs. There is no use talking about a Chinese threat and what we can do unless we are ready to use air power. If our politicians don't have the balls or brains to understand that we might as well put our thumbs in our musharrafs and talk about Bollywood

ranjan.rao · Post by **ranjan.rao** » 29 Mar 2017 09:43

I would take airpower use to be given. Since Sundarji's time airpower is used. Past actions (Op Checkerboard), major IAF exercises(Livewire, Pralay). Even in chinese incursion/intrusions in chumur transport was used. All this gives me good indication that airpower will be used. Now what might make airpower less effective is, small sized foot incursion by chinese. While this may serve in multiple areas as you highlighted in your videos. It is fraught with high casualities especially in light of pinaka and artillery attacks.
One good fallout of 1962 was that army's advice is not trashed by political masters. That will more be the case in war

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Mar 2017 09:52

SandeepS wrote:
Deans wrote: ...I wouldn't be surprised if French is a more popular subject at the NDA today than Mandarin.
You couldn't be further from facts...not only Mandarin but also Tibetan, Burmese, Pushto are taught at NDA and are well subscribed by the cdts. Have a look at MoD's School of Foreign Languages website the languages that are taught. SFL is responsible for syllabi and assessment of foreign language at NDA, AEC and even IFS.

Please give some credit to the intelligence & culture of our forces, they are professionals and not some rag-tag jumped-up militia.

Sandeep, I'm not saying these languages are not taught. I know they are. I'm questioning weather the majority of officers who study a foreign language (it has to be an ongoing process and not confined to a couple of terms at the academy) focus on the languages of our enemies. I would evaluate the army's foreign language competence on for e.g the percentage of officers who can speak Mandarin or read Urdu.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Mar 2017 10:04

There was a typo in my earlier post (since edited) where I suggest that the errors are unlikely to be repeated. In both Ladakh and NEFA, Nehru wanted to throw out the Chinese from areas that were historically never under our control and where the basis for our claim was dubious at best. It's not something the army will do today and both the army and political leadership have a more nuanced approached even for genuine Chinese border transgressions ('the perception of the border varies on each side etc etc'). Nor is the army likely to repeat the fiasco of Thag la ridge, (where our unprepared men had to attack an entrenched and superior PLA force occupying the heights). Instead the army will react as they did in Kargil - after preparation and a deliberate build up of the force required to ensure the job is done'.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 29 Mar 2017 10:21

Deans wrote:There was a typo in my earlier post (since edited) where I suggest that the errors are unlikely to be repeated. In both Ladakh and NEFA, Nehru wanted to throw out the Chinese from areas that were historically never under our control and where the basis for our claim was dubious at best. It's not something the army will do today and both the army and political leadership have a more nuanced approached even for genuine Chinese border transgressions ('the perception of the border varies on each side etc etc'). Nor is the army likely to repeat the fiasco of Thag la ridge, (where our unprepared men had to attack an entrenched and superior PLA force occupying the heights). Instead the army will react as they did in Kargil - after preparation and a deliberate build up of the force required to ensure the job is done'.

With respect to the bold part above, please don't go by a narrative which has been created by western authors and to a large extent by leftist historians/commentators who're sympathetic to China like AG Noorani.

All the literature on the Sino-India boundary in eastern Ladakh is from British POV which was guided by their strategic interests. Nowhere is there any exploration of historical rights and boundaries of Ladakh kings and subsequently the Dogra rulers of J&K. Just because the Britishers did not actively control/administer some territory or decided to unilaterally amend some map, it does not mean that India never had any control of these areas.

Funny thing is, there is very limited literature on basis of Chinese historical claim to these areas, especially Askai Chin. Same goes for the McMahon Line in east.

Let me give you an example - AG Noorani has written a book on Sino-Indian boundary dispute. He basic premise to explore the boundary question is to look from perspective of where Britishers left. Why? Because Indian independence happened under The Indian Independence Act 1947. Whereby, Britishers TRANSFERRED power to Indians and not exactly grant independence in legal sense, something they did in case of Ireland. And because there was transfer of power from Britishers to Indians, the treaties and agreements were transferred as well. In case of Ireland, the act of granting independence in legal sense made them free from all such obligations as would've been entered into by British monarch. This mistake they did not want to repeat in case of India.

Imagine, this is the kind of intellectual back-flip many of our intellectuals and historians have done to explain away foreign power's position. And we expect them to educate Indians about genuine and proper Indian history.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 29 Mar 2017 10:47

Deans wrote: both the army and political leadership have a more nuanced approached even for genuine Chinese border transgressions ('the perception of the border varies on each side etc etc'). Nor is the army likely to repeat the fiasco of Thag la ridge, (where our unprepared men had to attack an entrenched and superior PLA force occupying the heights). Instead the army will react as they did in Kargil - after preparation and a deliberate build up of the force required to ensure the job is done'.

Agree.

The other question that comes to mind is what whether the Chinese will ever use direct war at all unless we drop our guard, apply Vaseline and bend over?

Looking at developments in Nyingchi - it appears from some articles that it is not just a military HQ but fast being made into a Chinese tourist destination a cool "hill station" if you like - which is not as hostile-high as Lhasa where rich Chinese can buy condominiums. In fact apart from 2-3 large military barrack-like areas in North Nyingchi the rest of the place looks like it is full of homes and luxury homes at that.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 29 Mar 2017 11:02

shiv wrote:Looking at developments in Nyingchi - it appears from some articles that it is not just a military HQ but fast being made into a Chinese tourist destination a cool "hill station" if you like - which is not as hostile-high as Lhasa where rich Chinese can buy condominiums. In fact apart from 2-3 large military barrack-like areas in North Nyingchi the rest of the place looks like it is full of homes and luxury homes at that.

I wonder why would Chinese investors invest in luxury homes so close to the border. I am sure many of the buyers will be politicians, who'd be the last people to invest in area that's so close to their perceived enemy. Or may be they know that they'll use their paltu kutta to do the biting and that they themselves will not get into a fight with us.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 Mar 2017 11:13

The speed with which the PRC has built its infrastructure in the ICS atolls,from where combat aircraft and warships can operate from,must be contrasted with the lackadaisical attitude of our MOD in beefing up our A&N theatre island infrastructure. The runways and base facilities of the naval air stations there need to be lengthened and upgraded asap so that frontline naval and even IAF aircraft can operate from them.It is a pity that the Bears have been retired even before the arrival of the extra 4 P-8Is.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... -sea-ready

Warning that Beijing's military bases in South China Sea are ready for use
China now able to deploy combat aircraft and missile launchers to disputed islands at any time, says US thinktank
Construction on Fiery Cross Reef, in the Spratly Islands, shown in 9 March satellite image released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

Oliver Holmes South-east Asia correspondent
Tuesday 28 March 2017 05.57 BST Last modified on Tuesday 28 March 2017 06.19 BST
China has largely completed three major military bases in the South China Sea that have naval, air, radar and missile-defence facilities, according to a US thinktank.

South China Sea images reveal impact on coral of Beijing's military bases

“Beijing can now deploy military assets, including combat aircraft and mobile missile launchers, to the Spratly Islands at any time,” said the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), part of Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The thinktank published images taken this month of what it calls the “big three” island air bases – Subi, Mischief, and Fiery Cross reefs – which it has analysed via commercial high-resolution satellite imagery for two years.

“China’s three air bases in the Spratlys and another on Woody Island in the Paracels will allow Chinese military aircraft to operate over nearly the entire South China Sea,” AMTI said. “The same is true of China’s radar coverage.”

Construction on Mischief Reef. Photograph: CSIS/AMIT/DigitalGlobe/Reuters

China denies it is militarising the South China Sea, which is thought to have significant oil and gas reserves and is a route for half of the world’s commercial shipping. The reclamation of the islands has also had a devastating impact on some of the world’s most biodiverse coral reefs.

Beijing asserts sovereignty over maritime areas that span 3.5m sq km but are also claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Japan. China’s military build-up has become one of the US president Donald Trump’s most explosive foreign policy challenges.

Under Barack Obama’s administration, Washington claimed it was neutral on the question of sovereignty over the South China Sea islets, reefs and shoals, but also conducted regular air and naval patrols to assert its rights of passage.

Steve Bannon: 'We're going to war in the South China Sea ... no doubt'

But the US secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, said in January that the US should go further by blocking Chinese access to the islands. Last week the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, said defence equipment had been placed on islands to maintain “freedom of navigation”.

Chinese warships frequently radio US aircraft in the region, warning them not to approach. And last month a Chinese military aircraft had an “unsafe” encounter with a US navy surveillance aircraft over the area, the US Pacific command announced.

AMTI said China had installed HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles at one island as well as anti-ship cruise missiles. It had also built enough hangars for 72 combat aircraft and several larger bombers.

The group’s director, Greg Poling, said the images showed new radar antennas on Fiery Cross and Subi: “So look for deployments in the near future.”

Reuters contributed to this report

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 29 Mar 2017 12:01

i read Dev Anands biography and he makes a mention of Krishna Menon...a old doddering man ..cold shouldered by all. I think more than Nehru ..menon is the real culprit of the 1962 debacle...he engineered all nonsense in the Army. Nehru was also culpable but his folly was that he thought menon is a super effecient minister and depended too much on his advice. Shiv..to give u an idea on how minutely the chinis planned the attack..that they made their moves on a holiday in Govt of India..was it a saturday or sunday so that GOI could not respond adequately even though they knew they had immense superiority overIA in all aspects. In one conversation Dalvi says he asked Kaul about winter clothing and Kaul says we are kind of ordering this clothing from Canada while the troops were shivering in the cold !!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 29 Mar 2017 12:04

Karthik S wrote:
shiv wrote:Looking at developments in Nyingchi - it appears from some articles that it is not just a military HQ but fast being made into a Chinese tourist destination a cool "hill station" if you like - which is not as hostile-high as Lhasa where rich Chinese can buy condominiums. In fact apart from 2-3 large military barrack-like areas in North Nyingchi the rest of the place looks like it is full of homes and luxury homes at that.
I wonder why would Chinese investors invest in luxury homes so close to the border. I am sure many of the buyers will be politicians, who'd be the last people to invest in area that's so close to their perceived enemy. Or may be they know that they'll use their paltu kutta to do the biting and that they themselves will not get into a fight with us.

They are not expecting war. At best they don't care - or else they have utter contempt for India. That said they do have a formidable military presence in some areas near Tawang and Nathu La. Will come up with details in due course. But those luxury condos will be the first to be emptied at the first sign of war..

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 29 Mar 2017 12:09

manjgu wrote:i read Dev Anands biography and he makes a mention of Krishna Menon...a old doddering man ..cold shouldered by all. I think more than Nehru ..menon is the real culprit of the 1962 debacle...he engineered all nonsense in the Army. Nehru was also culpable but his folly was that he thought menon is a super effecient minister and depended too much on his advice. Shiv..to give u an idea on how minutely the chinis planned the attack..that they made their moves on a holiday in Govt of India..was it a saturday or sunday so that GOI could not respond adequately even though they knew they had immense superiority overIA in all aspects. In one conversation Dalvi says he asked Kaul about winter clothing and Kaul says we are kind of ordering this clothing from Canada while the troops were shivering in the cold !!

I think the mistake goes back to Nehru as well. Krishnamenon was bad but he just made a great tag team with Nehru.

With the Indian army never ever having been to (NEFA) Arunachal Pradesh and never ever having a presence in the heights - it was the Assam rifles ( designated as police) that would have been the appropriate force and it was already there. But Nehru announced in parliament that the Army would handle the job. The army chief (Thimayya?) got this news from the media.

The entire political leadership had both thumbs up their musharafs and the appointed an incompetent Yes-man Kaul to boot. The curretn day Lutyens crowd operates just like this.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Mar 2017 20:39

Shiv, you raise an important point about the narrative (for Indians) on the India-China border dispute being written largely by the British. I have followed that, in the absence of well researched work by Indian scholars. By contrast, Chinese history tells school kids that Ladakh was historically part of sone Chinese kingdom or the other, from time immemorial. There's even something about Emperor Harshavardhana trying to 'throw out the Chinese' from what is today Sikkim (he lost).

In any case historical claims were moot when, in 1962, in Ladakh, the Chinese were already west of all possible border demarcation lines that may have come about through negotiation. That should have made Nehru and Menon far more circumspect about territorial claims.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 29 Mar 2017 22:24

The history is quite complex when looked at in detail, but is quite straightforward in practical terms. India's relations were with Tibet. The relations of all the Himalayan kingdoms were with Tibet. Agreements were with Tibet. China has nothing to do with it. China annexed Tibet and is now demanding more, They need to be told where to get off, to put it mildly.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Mar 2017 01:32

Nehru and his coterie thought that Chinese were also oppressed people and would align with India if they showed understanding. This led them to appease China when it took over Tibet and then when it expelled Dalai Lama. This was going on since before WWII, when Congress would talk to KMT. What they did not understand was Mao was different and had an agenda.
And next reason was they had police check-posts along the North- Eastern border instead of Army as if they expected it to be some sort of a civilian intrusion.
I suspect they had some unwritten protocols with the US which were let down when the Chinese rolled in.

ranjan.rao · Post by **ranjan.rao** » 30 Mar 2017 04:25

While all this historical fault finding is fine,..who did what and who did not do what. In the end it has been 55 years since then. What we need to start thinking (considering we havent done till now) is how to take that land of ours.

brvarsh · Post by **brvarsh** » 30 Mar 2017 08:25

More than if it would be feasible for China to pull off such a thing what needs to be noted and warn us that they are preparing and considering such a situation. India can not think of doing it neither in China nor in any other big nation - reason is not our own mechanized capabilities but the assets in that nation who would work with us to make it a success.
If China plans for such eventuality indicates there are credible elements in India that China believes would work for them and not that it has not happened before, 1962 has been an example. The only way to pin that plan in its bud is to identify and neutralize those elements.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Mar 2017 08:37

ranjan.rao wrote:While all this historical fault finding is fine,..who did what and who did not do what. In the end it has been 55 years since then. What we need to start thinking (considering we havent done till now) is how to take that land of ours.

One of the reasons for the complexity of the history and the "ignorance-fear-superstition" complex is the connection between geography and events.

This is something that we do not instinctively learn - exposed as we are to an education in which we are taught:

xth battle of Panipat
y had @@@ men and $$$ horses
z had ### men and &&& horses

With great valour and heroism y won.

This simplistic storytelling does not explain the complexity of the environment which compounded the geopolitical & or military blunders. This knowledge of terrain was absent among large sections of the Indian army who had done little fighting in such terrain - though they were veterans from the world war - including desert war. There were not even any good maps. Toughness and valour were probably given much weightage while logistics, climate and acclimatization were ignored. As I see it, the "narrative" that emerged and has continued to this day is that we are still incompetent when it comes to planning, equipment and logistics while the Chinese are moving ahead on all fronts. The Chinese reinforce this "Indians are losers" narrative both in media articles and in public exchanges such as this forum, while we harp on the opposite narrative of "respect your enemy" "Do not under estimate your foe"

I do not seek to argue with this narrative and prove that it is right or wrong. My intent is merely to look at the Chinese side and see what they have in terms of logistics, terrain and climate issues to either identify weak spots or strengths. I am deliberately ignoring preparation, infra and logistics on the Indian side - one of the main reasons being that the terrain on the Indian side is different from what the Chinese have. Only the direct face-off in the mountains between two armies will have the same terrain and climate in the battle zone. But the logistics lines for India and China are completely different.

Also for this reason - any Chinese advance into India complicates their logistics in a particular way, and similarly any Indian advance into Tibet complicates our logistics in a particular way. A Chinese advance into India makes our logistics lines shorter and theirs longer and vice versa if we advance into Tibet.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 30 Mar 2017 10:08

While IA might not have the experience then of fighting in NEFA kind of terrain, it is wrong to believe that IA did not understand the issue or what they were facing.

In 1959/60, IA Eastern Command under Lt General SPP Thorat conducted a table-top exercise/war-game called as 'Lal Qila'. During the course of this war-game, IA correctly predicted everything which eventually happened in 1962 basis assessment of Chinese and own strengths. The findings of the exercise were that if we continue on present course, a clash of arms is imminent. And given the way we're conducting ourselves in military matters, Indian defeat is a given. It called for course correction and suggested corrective measures.

AHQ was asked to send representative for this exercise and they send Kaul. When the findings of this war-game were shared with Menon, he called it war-mongering and alarmist. And it seems these finding were never discussed with Nehru.

Interesting, General Thimayya had recommended the name of Lt General SPP Thorat as COAS given his experience as Eastern Army Commander. But was overruled and Thapar made as Chief.

Another important takeaway from the 1962 war was the way battles were fought in NE and Eastern Ladakh. Eastern Ladakh was without any political interference while NEFA was being meddled from Delhi. And here again, it was the Tawang area which was center of it. In eastern Ladakh, in spite of AHQ orders, Western Command (then responsible for the area) took some corrective measures in force structure.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Mar 2017 10:27

disagreements among factions of generals even in presence of good data is not unknown. erich marks the author of op barbarossa cant have been any pushover with his knights cross with oak leaves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erich_Marcks - he correctly predicted instead of calais , the allies would attack across a wider part of the channel to normandy during a staff exercise. but SS panzer divs were sited near calais

bitter debate was also on whether to keep the panzer divs in reserve until it was clear where the main allied landings were (vs feints) or put them all on the atlantic wall in dispersed mode. i believe the atlantic wall camp won out as it was felt allied airpower would make movements of massed armour tough after D-day on the country roads. I forgot which camp Rommel was in favour of.

hitler and some of his cronies like goering, jodl and kietel also interfered a lot in the day to day operational running of fronts, passing irresponsible orders like hold every inch of the line rather than shortening the lines in russia which field commanders like von bock and others had suggested. goering was known for his bombastic claims of what the luftwaffe could do alone and had hitlers total confidence - dunkirk was allowed to happen rather than rommel and guderians divisions pressing close and finishing the fight because goering claimed the luftwaffe would wipe the floor of any rescue flotilla. even old english recreational sailors who had a boat that could cross the channel brought back soldiers from dunkirk.

anytime a political leader and his hangers on in the military start to decide grand strategy the stage is inevitably set for defeat one time or another.

there MAY however be some political compulsions that go against pure military strategy - like for media optics and morale India simply cannot afford to lose tawang or amritsar at any cost for any reason though I believe tawang is very hard to defend and the area round Se La pass further behind is more suitable.

Stalinji for all his moods and brutality, understood that he was in over his head in cold water once Op barbarossa rolled over the initial russi defences. he had executed a lot of top generals including the father of blitzkrieg Tucachevksy in a purge earlier. he quickly gathered the best of the rest like zhukov, rokosovsky et al and let them run with the ball, while monitoring it from moscow but not passing much hitlerian diktats.