shiv wrote:Chaitanya - China appears to be maintaining only a skeleton capability.
Here is an article that I had posted a few days ago - worth reading although it has the usual dhoti-shiver passages because no Indian can write about China without some other Indian chastising him for not respecting China. Only I am am aggressive oiseaule who refuses to do that.
Sorry Shivji, I've made this argument a LONG time ago. Geographically and geopolitically it is hemmed in. On top of which, it is a soft nation militarily (a term many like to use for India.) Economically, though, it is a very hard nation and that is where the danger lies.
It is a third-rate military power but it is a first rate industrial power. (I attended a conference a half decade ago where Arvind Subramanian said that we might be seeing the rise of the greatest manufacturing nation in history in Cheen. This was before the numbers came out on PRC using more cement in one year than the US in 60 or chinis using half the world's steel or the "ghost" cities.)
Pro-longed peace means playing to Cheen's strength. With the maturing of their printing press, they will overwhelm the staus quo on the ground anywhere -- as long as they are given time to build.
War is the best option. A strike to recover Aksai Chin would NOT lead to nukes. It would permanently knock them below us in the eyes of the nations around the IOR rimland and beyond. But it will not affect their survival enough tip the equation towards nukes. They are businessmen and merchants not warriors with a warrior mentality of death before dishonor like the Japanese or Vietnamese. They are also not delusional about their "martial" races like the Pakis.
A short war would be fun and profitable against that army.