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Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby chola » 09 May 2017 20:42

shiv wrote:Chaitanya - China appears to be maintaining only a skeleton capability.

Here is an article that I had posted a few days ago - worth reading although it has the usual dhoti-shiver passages because no Indian can write about China without some other Indian chastising him for not respecting China. Only I am am aggressive oiseaule who refuses to do that.
http://www.vifindia.org/print/1828


Sorry Shivji, I've made this argument a LONG time ago. Geographically and geopolitically it is hemmed in. On top of which, it is a soft nation militarily (a term many like to use for India.) Economically, though, it is a very hard nation and that is where the danger lies.

It is a third-rate military power but it is a first rate industrial power. (I attended a conference a half decade ago where Arvind Subramanian said that we might be seeing the rise of the greatest manufacturing nation in history in Cheen. This was before the numbers came out on PRC using more cement in one year than the US in 60 or chinis using half the world's steel or the "ghost" cities.)

Pro-longed peace means playing to Cheen's strength. With the maturing of their printing press, they will overwhelm the staus quo on the ground anywhere -- as long as they are given time to build.

War is the best option. A strike to recover Aksai Chin would NOT lead to nukes. It would permanently knock them below us in the eyes of the nations around the IOR rimland and beyond. But it will not affect their survival enough tip the equation towards nukes. They are businessmen and merchants not warriors with a warrior mentality of death before dishonor like the Japanese or Vietnamese. They are also not delusional about their "martial" races like the Pakis.

A short war would be fun and profitable against that army.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby chaitanya » 09 May 2017 22:29

Thanks for the clarifications shiv and chola. The discussions on this and the other chinese threads have been great, really learned a lot... now back to lurk mode

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby sanjaykumar » 10 May 2017 04:35

Good to see Lt Gen Bannerjee's article. It endorses many succinct points I have raised.

The terrain into India from the Tibetan plateau is essentially a series of parallel riverine valleys ideally suited to be turned into killing fields.

The open indefensible terrain of Tibet. Indefensible without air dominance although he does not state it explicitly.

The utility of special forces and native Tibetans in creating havoc behind enemy lines

The strategic employ of General Winter, what he calls gennearl snow. This should be an integral part of india's defence calculus.



I have previously discussed hypoxia and possible methods to speed up acclimatisation which he has neglected.

He is too modest in crediting the Mukti Bahini in the 1971 victory. The Indian military especially army demonstrated an innovative, creative and vigorous plan to obliterate the opposition AND create a new nation. The last has been left to be inferred by the general, viz a viz Tibet.


Finally and most importantly india's cricketing is a key determinant and barometer in determining India's potential as a military opponent.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Manish_P » 10 May 2017 14:23

sanjaykumar wrote:Finally and most importantly india's cricketing is a key determinant and barometer in determining India's potential as a military opponent.


:eek: Could you kindly elaborate ?

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby manjgu » 10 May 2017 16:22

i think he means..how much goody goody boy we want to project ourselves... log kya kahenge !! or we want to shed that image.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Manish_P » 10 May 2017 16:53

manjgu wrote:i think he means..how much goody goody boy we want to project ourselves... log kya kahenge !! or we want to shed that image.


Ah you mean that old bartaniya tosh about Cricket being a gentlemans game...

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby sanjaykumar » 10 May 2017 22:24

Actually I meant that one good cricket win is worth a hundred Sun Tzus.

It has to do with the psychology of being a winner or a loser. India, that always lost, is getting used to winning. Winning at the most lucrative international sport purse is not because Indians were emaciated and physically weak in the past. It is because India's successes in the economy, poverty alleviation, democracy, space and IT technology has informed the Indian that he may not be the nakama as thought.

I have little interest in cricket, but even I can tell the transformation wrought on Indian players over the past few years. Kohli just stated that the Australian cricketer was just another human being, that there are 1 billion in India. That is the politest way of telling him to phuq auf. In other words the colonial has demonstrated something to the master race, but also much more importantly, to himself.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 11 May 2017 15:11

Sanjay ji, What you have said is something I feel very strongly about. I too have seen cricket from the late 70's (albeit without much interest)
and the transformation in the body language of our team, starting from roughly the time MSD came in, is amazing. Earlier we were content just taking part and would be happy if the visiting white man put in a nice word about our grounds, Taj mahal etc. We didn't play England then, they were called MCC - it being below the dignity of the goras that the natives should be visited by England's team. Kohlis aggression on the field is one of the things that make me proud to be Indian today.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby sanjaykumar » 11 May 2017 20:19

Good to know others have noticed these things and analysed them.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 14 May 2017 12:38

Working on a video of the Aksai Chin area. I am almost done looking at the geography and roads of the entire border. But this is simply a post with Bollywood video and some philosophy. The video is the song "Satarangi re" from Mani Ratnam's "Dil Se". I post it here because it features Aksai Chin's Pangong lake or Pangong Tso in one part. I had never watched the video before and I have not seen the movie. But it sets me off on unrelated philosophical muses.

On another thread I am witnessing a great deal of moaning and breat beating about China's OBOR and how India is doing nothing and only thinking of elections.

But look at this video. It is soft p()rn in Arabic costume. I can imagine several million people west of India all the way up to Algeria and northwards towards Central Asia jerking off and coming inside their desert clothing watching this. This is a pure commercial enterprise - to make money out of sand dwellers. There is nothing Islamic in it except for the clothes and a suggestion of Arabic music in the tones. Funny that we don't see the crass commercial value of Bollywood free enterprise but howl and cry at what China is doing to make itself popular. Ironic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14m00xcuIjo

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 15 May 2017 06:15

Last night for timepass I spent 30 minutes following, on Google earth a crucial part of the CPEC - that is the mountain segment of the highway via Khunjerab pass. I marked 6 avalanches where the road had either been completely covered or the road had collapsed from underneath. I will post images one by one along with date of image on Twitter and cross post on BRF.

I was earlier surprised to learn that the highways from China to Tibet were not all weather highways and that there are treacherous areas that suffer from blockages and it takes 10 days to traverse. This is no good for a military. That was the logic behind the railway to Lhasa. But railway to Lhasa running along those same mountains proved to be an endeavour that would be too expensive in terms of tunnels and bridges because railways need relatively straight runs and cannot zig-zag like road.

Coming back to the Xinjiang-Pakistan highway - the quality of road seems excellent - the same as seen in China/Tibet. There are even several sloping "roof like structures" placed in avalanche prone areas so the avalanche does not block the road and these look like Chinese engineering - exactly the same as in Eastern China and Tibet. But yet - at any given time the road is blocked by an avalanche somewhere or the other. The road is such an insane zig-zag in some areas that building a railway is not going to happen.

So what we are going to see is fantastic roads via Shitistan up to the mountains and after that it will be same-ol'.

On the Chinese side the terrain is flatter and there are no blockages. Funnily there are at least 3 Chinese military camps close to the Pakistan border exactly like the ones near the Indian border - complete with defensive trenches to protect against attacks :lol:

I will soon inform you folks whether there are Chinese army camps in Gilgit. At least larger camps are easily recognizable - they have a characteristic design.

CPEC looks more line C-coughcough-PEC to me

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 15 May 2017 09:04

2016 images from Google earth - Avalanches blocking the CPEC route within 100 km of Khunjerab
Image
Image
Image
Image

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Prasad » 15 May 2017 12:49


Atulya P
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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Atulya P » 15 May 2017 14:18

^ Shiv sir, I agree, these look like massive landslides. These are very young mountains and the fact that there is usually next to no precipitation in trans himalayas makes the mountain sides very very fragile. With regular rain, the loose gravel, sand is washed away over the years and underlying rock faces emerge.

That brings me to another thought. Cloud seeding can be a deadly weapon in these areas. These roads can be taken out by inducing artificial rain. So an appropriate weaponized missile in air blast mode with Silver/Potassium Iodide can spell disaster for the feeder lines in an event of war. Take for example what happened in Ladakh in 2010 which were caused by cloudburst over the region, entire villages were washed away. Just my imagination running wild.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Avtar Singh » 15 May 2017 21:05

Weapons that cause avalanches in the right places would be far more useful than just bombing roads,
it is easier to repairs roads than moving tons of mountain out of the way.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 15 May 2017 21:34

The more I look at the Karakoram highway - the more road blocks I find. I am totally gobsmacked. And there is almost no traffic in the mountain regions. These facts seem to be a closely held secret. Everyone is pretending that all is well and that there is much traffic between shitland and China. Rubbish

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Prasad » 15 May 2017 22:50

Just to give people an idea of the altitude layout of the northern indian plains, the himalayas and altitude distribution in the Tibetan plateau =

Image

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby KLNMurthy » 16 May 2017 00:35

chola wrote:^^^ lol. Even worse than a conscript army where peasants can be made to provide fodder for human waves.

Kind of doubtful that these single child little emperors whose parents spent 100,000 yuan to get them army jobs would be charging up any hills. lol

If we can't kick the arse of these pudding soft, self-indulgent little faggots in a short war then we should be ashamed as Indians.

ok, so we have to scrap the assumption that Chinese PLA is conscript-based, though there are obviously other issues with the quality of their soldiers.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby SriJoy » 16 May 2017 01:16

This is another tool one can use to find elevation at any given point on this earth- overlay is google maps, so you can zoom in and drop an altitude marker at any point :

https://www.daftlogic.com/sandbox-googl ... titude.htm

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 16 May 2017 05:43

Prasad wrote:Three part series on China's Integrated Air Defense by Col Mandeep Singh
http://www.delhidefencereview.com/2017/ ... em-part-i/
http://www.delhidefencereview.com/2017/ ... gy-trends/
Third part on AD in Tibet-
http://www.delhidefencereview.com/2017/ ... rld-tibet/

Thanks for posting. I saw it on Teetar but forgot to post. That last one is a good one

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby chola » 16 May 2017 14:04

KLNMurthy wrote:
chola wrote:^^^ lol. Even worse than a conscript army where peasants can be made to provide fodder for human waves.

Kind of doubtful that these single child little emperors whose parents spent 100,000 yuan to get them army jobs would be charging up any hills. lol

If we can't kick the arse of these pudding soft, self-indulgent little faggots in a short war then we should be ashamed as Indians.

ok, so we have to scrap the assumption that Chinese PLA is conscript-based, though there are obviously other issues with the quality of their soldiers.


We can scrap the assumption that Cheen is even a half-decent military power in any shape or form. They build lots (and lots and lots) of shiny new hardware because they are a manufacturing power. But as a military farce, they can't fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

https://m.aseanbreakingnews.com/2017/01/commander-of-us-naval-forces-implies-that-chinese-navy-ships-cant-fight-their-way-out-of-a-wet-paper-bag/

Cavas asked Rowden about China commissioning a 4,000 ton frigate and deploying it just six weeks later, a start-to-finish speed inconceivable in the US Navy, where ships undergo many rounds of testing and often take more than one year to deploy. AP China’s navy a burgeoning behemoth or a paper tiger? When asked about the differences between the US and China’s processes, Rowden explained that while a US and a Chinese ship may both appear combat-ready,”[o]ne of them couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag and the other one will rock anything that it comes up against.”


You can see the chini strategy in the quote above. Build and deploy so much stuff so fast that they can't possibly train people to use it.

But as long as there is pro-longed peace they win because those frigates changes the fact on the ground. The PRC plans things this way as they had avoided war at all costs for four decades plus.

How do you derail the plans of a nation deploying this strategy? You fvcking punch them in the back of their fvcking heads.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby kapilrdave » 16 May 2017 14:38

This thread....

https://twitter.com/handle_anonymus/sta ... 1385129985
(1)The myth of China controlling water of Brahmaputra and Indus.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby abhik » 16 May 2017 19:25

Cavas asked Rowden about China commissioning a 4,000 ton frigate and deploying it just six weeks later, a start-to-finish speed inconceivable in the US Navy, where ships undergo many rounds of testing and often take more than one year to deploy. AP China’s navy a burgeoning behemoth or a paper tiger? When asked about the differences between the US and China’s processes, Rowden explained that while a US and a Chinese ship may both appear combat-ready,”[o]ne of them couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag and the other one will rock anything that it comes up against.”

A lot of this is just pisskological warfare. When was the last time the US Navy have to actually fight a half decent adversary and not just cruise missiles and carrier airstrikes against turd world countries.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby rpartha » 16 May 2017 23:57

chola wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:ok, so we have to scrap the assumption that Chinese PLA is conscript-based, though there are obviously other issues with the quality of their soldiers.


We can scrap the assumption that Cheen is even a half-decent military power in any shape or form. They build lots (and lots and lots) of shiny new hardware because they are a manufacturing power. But as a military farce, they can't fight their way out of a wet paper bag.



just trying to understand here - if cheens are that bad ie a nation of just manufacturing power - they were able to stop UN/US troops along with Koreans in Korean war, right? i.e. they decided to fight and atleast were able to throw bodies at americans, right?

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby chola » 17 May 2017 00:29

rpartha wrote:
chola wrote:


We can scrap the assumption that Cheen is even a half-decent military power in any shape or form. They build lots (and lots and lots) of shiny new hardware because they are a manufacturing power. But as a military farce, they can't fight their way out of a wet paper bag.



just trying to understand here - if cheens are that bad ie a nation of just manufacturing power - they were able to stop UN/US troops along with Koreans in Korean war, right? i.e. they decided to fight and atleast were able to throw bodies at americans, right?


Ah, that was about 65 years and $11T in GDP ago. A poor peasant army forged during WWII that was willing to sacrifice. Not really all that much to live for, life as a chini farmer in those days.

Whatever was left of that army (including those from 1962) died during the Cultural Revolution and certainly the last remnants were wiped out during their bloody failure in Vietnam circa 1979.

Since then, they avoided warfare like muzzies do pork.

If there is ever a counterpart to SDRE, it is SYRE and they are even less warlike even than we are, IMO. In all of their wealthy dynasties they go soft and weak and then inevitably fall to huns, mongols, manchus until economic suffering hardens them into something tougher (but never to the same warrior mentality of races like the Japs, Germans or the Anglo-Americans.)

The last 40 years were prosperous for them and they, true to form, has assiduously avoided conflict (even when Unkil blew up their embassy in Serbia or tapdanced with Spy planes off Hainan.). Even Iran presented more military diffidence than Cheen.

Add in the single child little emperors, there is no way this army can fight. Like the giant with the wobbly knees, Cheen looks intimidating but all you need is one well-placed kick from behind to send him tumbling on his face.

So this giant faces east with nary anything protecting his arse because he sees no threat from the SDREs to his west. He is confident that as he grows fatter his size will settles things on the ground because no one has the balls to start a fight.

Now in the tradition of Chanakya, what we should do when presented with such an predicament/opportunity?

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby SriJoy » 17 May 2017 00:42

Did China not fight a war with Vietnam in the late 70s/early 80s and lose ? We need to study that.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby SriJoy » 17 May 2017 00:45

shiv wrote:The more I look at the Karakoram highway - the more road blocks I find. I am totally gobsmacked. And there is almost no traffic in the mountain regions. These facts seem to be a closely held secret. Everyone is pretending that all is well and that there is much traffic between shitland and China. Rubbish


Shiv-ji, I have a hypothetical scenario for you:

With Unkil and Cheen headed for conflict, lets say Unkil throws support behind 'Free Tibet from China' and RoI gets an instrument of accession from the Tibetan government in exile.
Assume China is busy in the east and we pull a blitzkreig, overwhelming meagre Chinese defences in Tibet and pour in. Where would the 'new border' between 'Indian Tibet' and 'rest of China' be ? What would our logistical chain look like ? Is it even feasible for India to have an international border over the Tibet plateau ? If so, where ?

Thanks, in advance !!

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 17 May 2017 06:52

SriJoy wrote:Assume China is busy in the east and we pull a blitzkreig, overwhelming meagre Chinese defences in Tibet and pour in. Where would the 'new border' between 'Indian Tibet' and 'rest of China' be ? What would our logistical chain look like ? Is it even feasible for India to have an international border over the Tibet plateau ? If so, where ?

Our logistical chain would be a nightmare. Tibet simply does not have enough food for extra people. A division (just 10,000 men) would need 1500 tons per day and that number of men is hardly enough. And we have to cart this stuff up 5 km and beyond. At most we could reoccupy Aksai chin and improve tactical positions near the border.

Please allow me to digress and go off on a tangent - I get such thoughts early in the morning. Western "science" of the 1950s and 60s came up with the idea that the entire world and universe ("mother nature") could be tamed and conquered. Those of us who lapped up science in the 60s were taught that by Y2K there would be huge underwater colonies in the oceans and space would be colonized. Occupying Tibet is fraught with the same problems - "mother nature". It is simply too hostile. The Chinese occupy it by force and they have a temporary population of Hans who come and go apart from Han tourists. They are trying to develop Southern Tibet - close to the Indian border as a kind of holiday resort. If the Chinese are evicted - only Tibetans can live there albeit with the same old frugality of traditional Buddhists.

If you go back in history - Tibet separated China and India. Neither the people from India nor the Chinese had any good reason to go and settle in Tibet. On the other hand Tibetans did occasionally come into the "lowlands" of India like Assam - albeit temporarily. Any Tibetan expansionism was typically beaten back by tribes in Arunachal Pradesh or Nepal - who themselves did not wish to go and stay in Tibet. As a nation - Tibetans were not pushovers and Indian occupation is neither physically nor politically likely. A free Tibet is a possibility - but you can expect free Tibet to want Aksai Chin, Ladakh and Tawang and other areas. the modern paradigm of Westphalian nation state does not allow loose, undefined borders. These days are gone. Free Tibet too would want defined borders with China and India.

Added later - If India develops a proper transport fleet of aircraft independent of current suppliers - we could possibly airlift stuff into Tibet in a copycat Indian version of the Berlin airlift or the American "Over the hump" aid to China during WW 2

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby SriJoy » 17 May 2017 07:09

shiv wrote:Our logistical chain would be a nightmare. Tibet simply does not have enough food for extra people. A division (just 10,000 men) would need 1500 tons per day and that number of men is hardly enough. At most we could reoccupy Aksai chin and improve tactical positions near the border.

Please allow me to digress and go off on a tangent - I get such thoughts early in the morning. Western "science" of the 1950s and 60s came up with the idea that the entire world and universe ("mother nature") could be tamed and conquered. Those of us who lapped up science in the 60s were taught that by Y2K there would be huge underwater colonies in the oceans and space would be colonized. Occupying Tibet is fraught with the same problems - "mother nature". It is simply too hostile. The Chinese occupy it by force and they have a temporary population of Hans who come and go apart from Han tourists. They are trying to develop Southern Tibet - close to the Indian border as a kind of holiday resort. If the Chinese are evicted - only Tibetans can live there albeit with the same old frugality of traditional Buddhists.

If you go back in history - Tibet separated China and India. Neither the people from India nor the Chinese had any good reason to go and settle in Tibet. On the other hand Tibetans did occasionally come into the "lowlands" of India like Assam - albeit temporarily. Any Tibetan expansionism was typically beaten back by tribes in Arunachal Pradesh or Nepal - who themselves did not wish to go and stay in Tibet. As a nation - Tibetans were not pushovers and Indian occupation is neither physically nor politically likely. A free Tibet is a possibility - but you can expect free Tibet to want Aksai Chin, Ladakh and Tawang and other areas. the modern paradigm of Westphalian nation state does not allow loose, undefined borders. These days are gone. Free Tibet too would want defined borders with China and India.


Thank you for the detailed response, though it doesn't answer my question.
If what you say is true, then an independent Tibet/Tibet outside China's control will not be possible. Because there is no way Tibet can defend itself against China under any circumstance- not unless it has a tacit alliance with India/USA to defend its border with China.
In either case, the logistics will have to come from India, because if its hard to supply logistics to Tibet from India, it would be exponentially harder from Burma or Central Asia- the only two other avenues where a logistic chain for Tibet can originate from, to defend itself from China.

So, IMO, if we are to look at an independent Tibet under any scenario, we have to consider the possibility of a military alliance with Tibet/logistic chain to hold Tibet's northern and eastern border.
I realize that there is no easy logistic into Tibet, but perhaps there can be a line of 'most mutual discomfort', where the Chinese lines of supply and Indian/US lines of supply (with tacit Indian approval) are equally uncomfortable.

Re: Tawang/Aksai Chin- we can negotiate for those in return for helping Tibet's independence cause when it happens- because the Chinese will never willingly leave Tibet.

So, if there is a Free Tibet, what would the Tibeto-Chinese border look like ? Can it be enforced by an alliance with India/USA ? If not, then there is no point in considering any scenario where Tibet is independent.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 17 May 2017 08:29

Well Tibet as a chronic sore in China's flesh is also an idea that can be used.

Unfortunately American expressions like "Free Tibet" are useless in this day and age. Go back 500 years and America was really free until it was won by Europeans just like Islamic conquests. Words like "Free nations" borrowed from there are utter chicanery. Fact is Tibet never ever had a large population and that was what kept people away - and even within that there was warring and exchange of territorial control.

I suspect that if Tibet were "free" they would have to be armed and deadly to protect their Westphalian borders and they would have territorial disputes with both India and China and would play one off against the other or take the help of some other entity to screw everyone else.

The Xining -Lhasa railway line is built on permafrost - but it is "marginal permafrost" - so it is a sort of experiment where ammonia and other non chemical tricks are used to keep the rock under the surface frozen in Tibet's relatively hot summers (compared to Siberian and Alaskan permafrost)

If global warming does occur - parts of Tibet may start blooming - but the atmosphere is not going to get any more dense or oxygen rich. That would also melt the permafrost and collapse the foundations of China's Tibet railway. But that is another issue.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Prasad » 17 May 2017 09:56

Tibet is a plateau and has no natural borders to separate it from the chinese heartland. So unless manned by an army, it will be open to invading armies. So unless you defang the PLA, you can't really defend Tibet from them. Sure, you could do it politically if the americans defeat them in the east and we manage to pull off a dash to lhasa and fly the flag and install the tibetan govt in exile back as the govt of tibet with the dalai lama providing legitimacy (atleast in our eyes) to it. The people might most likely agree and you'll have all these refugees going back to Tibet to establish themselves once again. Tawang shouldn't be much of an issue if we agree to have a Nepal type open border. Suzerainity can be worked out given IA presence is a given. Castles in the air all this :)

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Marten » 17 May 2017 10:10

Far more beneficial for India if the Tibetan plateau is inhospitable to Chinese infrastructure. I say "non-state actors" in Tibet should conduct geological experiments on the railway line and a few bridges to test, ascertain and verify the earthquake-proof nature of the bridges. Unless this step is taken, the entire "OBOR, we are the new Mongols" tripe will only build up. An artful detonation or two will quickly demonstrate the fragile nature of the Chinese psyche.

PS: I suspect Shiv saar has a few photos lined up already.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby SriJoy » 17 May 2017 10:28

Prasad wrote:Tibet is a plateau and has no natural borders to separate it from the chinese heartland. So unless manned by an army, it will be open to invading armies. So unless you defang the PLA, you can't really defend Tibet from them. Sure, you could do it politically if the americans defeat them in the east and we manage to pull off a dash to lhasa and fly the flag and install the tibetan govt in exile back as the govt of tibet with the dalai lama providing legitimacy (atleast in our eyes) to it. The people might most likely agree and you'll have all these refugees going back to Tibet to establish themselves once again. Tawang shouldn't be much of an issue if we agree to have a Nepal type open border. Suzerainity can be worked out given IA presence is a given. Castles in the air all this :)


Sometimes you need a castle in the air before you can build one on ground. If Tibet is to be free of Chinese influence, it either has to become part of India or have a military alliance with India. So it would be worthwhile considering what a potentially 'free from Chinese' TAR would look like geographically- since even if PLA is defanged for Tibet to become independent, it'd need some very carefully thought out borders to make its security enforceable.
We need to see if any mountain ranges of the trans-himalayas can be considered a 'defensible border' for Tibet-China. For example, the Tanggula mountain range separates the southern 'riverine Tibet' from the North. The Namchi barwa separates the region of U-Tsang (central TAR) from Kham (eastern Tibet).

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 17 May 2017 11:06

Marten wrote:Far more beneficial for India if the Tibetan plateau is inhospitable to Chinese infrastructure. I say "non-state actors" in Tibet should conduct geological experiments on the railway line and a few bridges to test, ascertain and verify the earthquake-proof nature of the bridges. Unless this step is taken, the entire "OBOR, we are the new Mongols" tripe will only build up. An artful detonation or two will quickly demonstrate the fragile nature of the Chinese psyche.

Almost the entire set of railway bridge supports in Tibet rest on permafrost foundations. I was wondering what would happen if sacks of common salt were dumped at the base of 2 or 3000 pylons and dissolved salt allowed to seep in? The salt should lower the freezing point and melt the ice - I'm guessing - and loosen the foundations

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Marten » 17 May 2017 11:54

Predicted Earthquake zone and suggested fault test zone: http://imgur.com/WQm66Nr
Image

For reference, the entire line:
Image

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Prasad » 17 May 2017 12:39

That map above also tells you something important. Source of the two big rivers for China lie in Tibet though they have several tributaries outside of it too.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby kapilrdave » 17 May 2017 14:27

If we can bring Nepal on board, the job will be far more easier for us. It has a huge border with china who cannot sustain such a wide spread war with a very long logistic lines. Nepal will come handy to save large part of Tibet in future as well. Also, Mansarovar (which should be our one of the core war objectives) will be a lot easier to capture and hold from Nepal border.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby SriJoy » 17 May 2017 14:52

kapilrdave wrote:If we can bring Nepal on board, the job will be far more easier for us. It has a huge border with china who cannot sustain such a wide spread war with a very long logistic lines. Nepal will come handy to save large part of Tibet in future as well. Also, Mansarovar (which should be our one of the core war objectives) will be a lot easier to capture and hold from Nepal border.


Err, even though the border between Nepal and China is quite long, doesn't it follow the main Himalayan ridge as the border ? For instance, the highest massif in the world, the 'Mahalangur Himal' is the border between Nepal and China. Nobody is fighting a war at 24-25000 feet, atleast not on the ground.

IMO, any type of 'leveraging Nepal during war with China' would involve trying to project force through half a dozen or so passes between Nepal and Tibet, along with immediate ridgeline activity around those passes.

For example, you say Manasarovar should be one of our core objectives. Well fine, but if it is to ever become our 'core objective', then we need to start defining what the border around this 'core objective' would look like. If we concede that we cannot fight a ground war over tibet, despite being far closer to the Indian heartland around Lhasa than China, then your Manasarovar as core-objective is not going to happen.Period.I realize the topography favours logistics over the gentle gradient of China-Tibet than the world's most abrupt terrain change in the India-Tibet side. But distance from say Cooch behar to Lhasa, is still our decisive advantage.

So the issue is two-fold : potential logistics in 'ground war over Tibet' and what we can define as a likely 'border' for our force projection. We need to investigate this in atleast a conceptual basis.
Otherwise, Tibet will forever be Chinese. A land of 3 million cannot stand up to the hostilities of a land of 1.5 billion without any way for any other potential ally to help it. China has a far firmer grip on East Turkestan, with almost 40% Han population. So it is going nowhere. Russia is the only one that can 'help liberate' Xinjiang and it is the least likely candidate to do so in any 'near term/realistic' scenario. So that just leaves us.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby kapilrdave » 17 May 2017 15:23

SriJoy wrote:
For example, you say Manasarovar should be one of our core objectives. Well fine, but if it is to ever become our 'core objective', then we need to start defining what the border around this 'core objective' would look like.

You are right about defining the borders. From the practicality POV, we should not mind gifting Mansarovar to Nepal. That way it will be a very small stretch of the border for Nepal than India's. Nepal in any case is well and truly part of the Akhand Bharat. So it should not be an issue for us.

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Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Singha » 17 May 2017 15:31

three areas which permit straight up moving into tibet is aksai chin(daulat beg oldi), south ladakh demchok region and north sikkim. we hold parts of the tibet flatland in all three. so i suspect any indian moves will stage out of these 3 points - which china is surely aware of.
maybe few smallish points in eastern arunachal

C130 landing and takoff in DBO


C17 in mechuka in north AP. walong in east is easier terrain.


AN32 @ walong


but its very hard to imagine brigade size continuous fighting up there except in demchok where our road is near to the border and tank regiments are in place. to get to DBG by road I think one has to go over khardung la into the nubra valley and beyond. i doubt a motorable road exists upto the DBO camp...maybe mule and 4x4 can make it.


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