Bharat Rakshak Forum Announcement

Hello Everyone,

A warm welcome back to the Bharat Rakshak Forum.

Important Notice: Due to a corruption in the BR forum database we regret to announce that data records relating to some of our registered users have been lost. We estimate approx. 500 user details are deleted.

To ease the process of recreating the user IDs we request members that have previously posted on the BR forums to recognise and identify their posts, once the posts are identified please contact the BRF moderator team by emailing BRF Mod Team with your post details.

The mod team will be able to update your username, email etc. so that the user history can be maintained.

Unfortunately for members that have never posted or have had all their posts deleted i.e. users that have 0 posts, we will be unable to recreate your account hence we request that you re-register again.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused and thank you for your understanding.

Regards,
Seetal

Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
manjgu
BRFite
Posts: 1130
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby manjgu » 02 Feb 2017 13:19

Shiv..a) i totally agree with ur assessment of 1962 events and the bungling on our side. But early in the thread few posters were saying that chinese have no idea about logistics etc which is pure bumkum. As i said then chinese are good at logistics, preparation and intelligence and they suffer from no delusion of Allahs divine hand coming to their aid . But this by no stretch amounts to dhoti shivering. This is just a honest appraisal of the situation ( not done by me) but by military experts/ officers. Brig Dalvi;s book attests to this fact as well as other accounts. I was shocked to learn on my trip to AP that the chinese built the road which is in use today to facilitate their advance to the plains b) its good some including u r studying the maps and we all are learning in the process. Both sides have some +ve's and -ve's going for them in terms of geography , logistics etc. what might show up as a good road in google maps may be of indifferent quality on the ground which applies equally to chinese, indian roads. Just behind chushul village, I saw a mountain side gorged with many holes which were IA positions overlooking the Spangur gap and other chinese positions which will never show up in google maps/ earth. likewise the road from tangtse to chushul looks good on GE but not very pleasant if u have to travel on it. No one here has a closed mind and all of us are learning from differing viewpoints and evidences being presented.

kit
BRFite
Posts: 1877
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby kit » 02 Feb 2017 13:22

shiv wrote:
kit wrote:The Chinese strategy would most likely to focus on gaining territory that will hold India at a disadvantage tactically .. if someone can look along the borders the north eastern borders as well as Pakistan border with India ( yes China will focus on both so as to maximize their strategic aims) ..an overwhelming onslaught can take in key Indian territories and rapid reinforcements along china border and the CPEC roads can be made to stand out Indian assaults along Pakistan border as well . ( thats the real objective for the CPEC ..@@@k trade )
.

Kit you need to do a lot more detail than that. Unfortunately you have fudged the detail and have written " if someone can look along the borders the north eastern borders ". Don't mean to be rude but why don;t you become that "someone". I have been doing that in great detail from page 1 of this thread and on page 10 of this Ramayana you are asking "Someone tell me who is Sita?"

Again I don't mean to be insulting but this is typical Indian dhoti shivering with zero attention to where exactly the Chinese may come and where they can go. Sometimes I feel that no thread should be more than 5 pages long because anything written earlier than 5 pages back is not read.

My idea of keeping this discussion going is to mark out all the border passes, roads and Chinese supply lines. I will do next to nothing about marking Indian helipads or Indian forces. The Chinese or someone else can do that as I am sure they will.

The scenario you have written is nonsense unless you can flesh out detail of which roads and passes the Chinese will use and what forces they will use, where exactly territory can be gained (and where they will lose territory) and what will happen if Indian forces decide not to keep their thumbs in their musharrafs and watch


understood sir .. that was indeed a generalized statement . But fact remains china s mobilization capability is much higher compared to India s . And a tactical loss cannot be regained without high cost . To contain such a possibility i think India needs tactical nuclear weapons wrt to China or a professed willingness to use strategic weapons in a tactical context which seems quite unlikely . Also that India cannot afford to lose the next India China war . This will happen at a point.

Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12204
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Lalmohan » 02 Feb 2017 14:50

^^^ tactical nuclear weapons as in - limited use. similar to the Pakistani doctrine...?

I think that is a breakdown of deterrence and inherently dangerous. with a rational player like china it is better to stick to mutually assured destruction

zoverian
BRFite
Posts: 215
Joined: 16 Aug 2016 10:58

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby zoverian » 02 Feb 2017 15:02

China Tests Missile With 10 Warheads

http://freebeacon.com/national-security ... -warheads/

China flight tested a new variant of a long-range missile with 10 warheads in what defense officials say represents a dramatic shift in Beijing's strategic nuclear posture.

The flight test of the DF-5C missile was carried out earlier this month using 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs. The test of the inert warheads was monitored closely by U.S. intelligence agencies, said two officials familiar with reports of the missile test.
The missile was fired from the Taiyuan Space Launch Center in central China and flew to an impact range in the western Chinese desert.
No other details about the test could be learned. Pentagon spokesman Cmdr. Gary Ross suggested in a statement the test was monitored.

"The [Defense Department] routinely monitors Chinese military developments and accounts for PLA capabilities in our defense plans," Ross told the Washington Free Beacon.

The test of a missile with 10 warheads is significant because it indicates the secretive Chinese military is increasing the number of warheads in its arsenal.

Estimates of China's nuclear arsenal for decades put the number of strategic warheads at the relatively low level of around 250 warheads.
U.S. intelligence agencies in February reported that China had begun adding warheads to older DF-5 missiles, in a move that has raised concerns for strategic war planners.

Uploading Chinese missiles from single or triple warhead configurations to up to 10 warheads means the number of warheads stockpiled is orders of magnitude larger than the 250 estimate.

Currently, U.S. nuclear forces—land-based and sea-based nuclear missiles and bombers—have been configured to deter Russia's growing nuclear forces and the smaller Chinese nuclear force.

Under the 2010 U.S.-Russian arms treaty, the United States is slated to reduce its nuclear arsenal to 1,550 deployed warheads.
A boost in the Chinese nuclear arsenal to 800 or 1,000 warheads likely would prompt the Pentagon to increase the U.S. nuclear warhead arsenal by taking weapons out of storage.

The new commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, Air Force Gen. John Hyten, stated during a Senate confirmation hearing in September that he is concerned about China's growing nuclear arsenal.
"I am fully aware that China continues to modernize its nuclear missile force and is striving for a secure second-strike capability," Hyten told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

"Although it continues to profess a ‘no first use' doctrine, China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads and continues to develop and test hyper-glide vehicle technologies," Hyten added.
"These developments—coupled with a lack of transparency on nuclear issues such as force disposition and size—may impact regional and strategic stability and are cause for continued vigilance and concern."

The 10-warhead missile test comes amid heightened tensions with China. State-run media in recent weeks has carried reports calling for China to expand its nuclear forces. A broadcast report showed that new long-range mobile missiles could strike the entire United States.
The Chinese state television channel CCTV-4 last week broadcast nuclear threats, including graphics showing new DF-41 missiles deployed in northern China and graphics showing the missiles' strike path into the United States. The Jan. 25 broadcast included a graphic of a 10-warhead MIRV bus for the DF-41.

The Chinese Communist Party propaganda newspaper Global Times, known for its anti-U.S. stance, issued stark calls for China to build up its nuclear arsenal for use against the United States. On Jan. 24, the newspaper said China's strategic forces "must be so strong that no country would dare launch a military showdown."

"China must procure a level of strategic military strength that will force the U.S. to respect it," the newspaper said.
The same state-run organ criticized President Donald Trump in an article on Dec. 8 and said China should use its wealth "to build more strategic nuclear arms and accelerate the deployment of the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile."
"We need to get better prepared militarily regarding the Taiwan question to ensure that those who advocate Taiwan's independence will be punished, and take precautions in case of U.S. provocations in the South China Sea," the newspaper said.
China conducted a flight test of the DF-41 in April.

Trump in December called for boosting America's aging nuclear arsenal.
"The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes," he stated in a tweet.

Military analysts said the large number of warheads is unusual for the Chinese nuclear program.
Rick Fisher, an analyst with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the multi-warhead missile test appears to be aimed at sending a signal to the new Trump administration.

Trump has tangled with China in opposing its military buildup on disputed South China Sea islands and on U.S. policy toward Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province and not an independent country.
White House spokesman Sean Spicer said the United States is prepared to block China's access to reclaimed islands he said are located in international waters and not China's sovereign maritime domain.

"This test of the 10-warhead DF-5C is China's latest nuclear intimidation exercise aimed at the new Trump administration," Fisher said.
"China's nuclear intimidation signals have included the public revelation in late December via Chinese websites of the new DF-41 ICBM in Heilongjiang province, plus articles in China's state-controlled media touting the need for China to increase its nuclear forces to intimidate Washington," Fisher added.

China's known force of around 20 D-5 missiles were deployed with large single warheads in the past, while some were upgraded with three-warhead top stages.

In September 2015 China revealed for the first time during a military parade that it had deployed a new DF-5B multi-warhead missile. Unofficial published reports suggested the DF-5B carries between six and eight warheads.
"The revelation that China has tested a new version of the DF-5 carrying ten warheads constitutes a very strong indication that China has produced a smaller warhead to equip its MIRV-capable ICBMs," Fisher said.
Some analysts speculate that the recent test of the DF-5C used the older missile as a test platform for a new warhead delivery bus that will be used on the new DF-41.

French China watcher Henri Kenhmann reported on his website East Pendulum that a Chinese missile test was to be carried out Jan. 15, based on air closure notices issued by the Chinese government for areas around Taiyuan and a missile impact range in western Xinjiang Province.
Analysis of the impact range suggests the test would include multiple test warheads.
"The point of impact is located south of the Taklamakan desert, in the former ballistic range of Minfeng," Kenhmann said, noting the Chinese had imposed an unusually large air exclusion zone of 125 miles around the impact zone.
"It should be noted that this zone of ballistic impact is abnormally large," he stated, a sign the large area would be used for multiple dummy warheads.

‘The size of this impact zone could indicate testing several MIRVs," he said.A similar Chinese test of the DF-41 in April involved two MIRVs that were fired to a much smaller impact area of 60 miles by 37 miles.

The Pentagon's latest annual report on the Chinese military said Beijing continues to upgrade its nuclear forces by enhancing silo-based missiles and adding new road-mobile missiles.

"China’s ICBM arsenal to date consists of approximately 75 to 100 ICBMs, including the silo-based CSS-4 Mod 2 (DF-5) and multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV)-equipped Mod 3 (DF-5B); the solid-fueled, road-mobile CSS-10 Mod 1 and 2 (DF-31 and DF-31A); and the shorter range CSS-3 (DF-4)," the report said.

The DF-5 is a two-stage, liquid-fueled missile with a range of around 8,000 miles.

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3237
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: India/US

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby hnair » 02 Feb 2017 15:23

kit wrote:But fact remains china s mobilization capability is much higher compared to India s .


After the initial :rotfl: , this thread is trying to get facts and present it to Indians, who might fall for the cheen tactics. So if you can present the fact that says "China's mobilization capability is much higher", then it will be appreciated. For example, they can have the finest roads deep in the Tibetan plateau and ride everything from those fine Norinco tanks to those Segways up and down fast. But how is it going to affect Indian border poisitions? eg: MBRL load of PLA was said to be huge. That is a good thing to know. And then India still has a much bigger tactical and strategic airlift capability for lateral shifting of equipment or troops. That is based on a comparison of the transport fleets of both militaries and not going into India's long experience since early 1980s in supplying, maintaining and executing rapid buildups.

If you have facts of their mobilization capabilities, then please expand on it. Else it is just what the chinese wants us to do - believe that they have "capability is much higher compared to India's"

nirav
BRFite
Posts: 1548
Joined: 31 Aug 2004 00:22
Location: Mumbai

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby nirav » 02 Feb 2017 16:12

Chinese want us to believe in 10 hour paras Saar.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 02 Feb 2017 17:37

rohitvats wrote:
Edit: Added one more short assessment from March 1987 (shows how US continuously tracks situations)

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP86T01017R000302910001-5.pdf

Rohit this one is about ALH

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 02 Feb 2017 17:41

kit wrote: But fact remains china s mobilization capability is much higher compared to India s . And a tactical loss cannot be regained without high cost . To contain such a possibility i think India needs tactical nuclear weapons wrt to China or a professed willingness to use strategic weapons in a tactical context which seems quite unlikely . Also that India cannot afford to lose the next India China war . This will happen at a point.

Sorry.

Do you know where the Chinese troops will be mobilized from, where they will be used and where we will nuke them? You are suggesting that we do a Pakistan and nuke our own territory after they enter. It appears that you intend to stay on vague generalities and suggest general solutions that you generally hope will work.

Can you pick one small specific area of the border and state (as a realistic example) where Chinese troops will enter, which parts they will capture and where they will get their ammunition and fuel supplies from as they enter deeper and deeper into India - just before we nuke them with your tactical nukes? A few place names and maybe a map would help the mentally challenged understand.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 02 Feb 2017 17:47

Could someone take a shot at this?
shiv wrote:Can someone help here? This appears to be a PLA camp 25 km from the border and 50 km from Tawang.

The coordinates are 28° 0'25.61"N 91°57'51.70"E

What is the cross shaped thing? It appears to be a pre-surveyed rocket/mijjile launch site to me, It is 100 meters by 130 meters
Image

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 406
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 02 Feb 2017 18:51

I've compiled the Chinese air force strength in Tibet (cross referenced from a couple of sources). Again the gap between dhoti-shiver
myth and reality about the Chinese air power in Tibet in is the same as the Chinese Army strength in Tibet.
The PLAAF aircraft strength in my table is based on the authorised strength of a PLAAF regiment (24 aircraft). Actual would be lower.

This excludes copters, transports etc.
I have also included the Jinan military district, which is believed to be the PLAAF reserve.
___________________________________________________________________________________________

Military region Division Regiment Location Aircraft type & Strength
Chengdu 33rd fighter 97th Dazu 24* J-7
98th Chaongqing Shashiyi 24* J-11

Chengdu 44th fighter 130th Mengzi 24* J-7
131st Luliang 24 * J-7
132nd Luilang 24 * J-10

Lanzhou 6th fighter 16th Yinchuan 24* J-11
17th Jiuquan 24* J-7
18th Lintaog 24* J-7

Lanzhou 37th fighter 109th brigade Changju 24* J-8
Wulumuqi 24 * J-7
Korla Xinhiang 24 * J-11

Lanzhou 36th Bomber 107th Lintong 18* Tu 16 (nuclear capable)
108th Wugong 18* Tu 16

Jinan (reserve) 12th fighter 34-36th Jinan 72* J7/8
19th fighter 55-57th Jining 48* J-7 & 24 * J-11
5th ground attack 13-15th Weifang 48* Q5 & 24 Tu 16
___________________________________________________________________________________________

The J7 is a MIG 21 derivative, (J8 is an upgrade) the J-11 is the SU-27 and the Q5 is a Mig 19 derivative.
My understanding of the J-10 is that it is a type similar to the J-11.

nam
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 47
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby nam » 02 Feb 2017 19:06

shiv wrote:Could someone take a shot at this?


SAM batteries or multiple helicopter pads?

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 406
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 02 Feb 2017 19:16

Before I comment on the table of PLAAF strength in Tibet, what is most significant for me is that NONE of its air regiments are actually based
in the TAR. In theory, they can operate from the 6 dual use airbases in Tibet (not 14, as has been claimed in many Indian sources) which are
Lhasa, Shigatse, Nyingchi, Ngari Gunsa, Qamdo Bangda, Dangxiong.
However, when doing so they have a severe payload penalty due to the high altitude of the TAR (which is permanent, unlike troops who can operate efficiently once acclimitised). Few people realise that Tibet is at a far higher elevation that IAF bases in Leh and Thoise. Aircraft can carry less than half their payload (its worse in summer) even when using runways twice as long.
None of the airports in Tibet are configured for military use - no SAM batteries (except Lhasa), hardened shelters, backup radars etc.

In theory, the PLAAF could use air to air refueling. Their air to air refueling capability however, consists of just 3 modern IL 78's and 20 H-6
(Soviet Tu16) aircraft, shared by the air force and Navy (the H-6 is a 1950's design and in service for over 25 years).

kit
BRFite
Posts: 1877
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby kit » 02 Feb 2017 19:24

shiv wrote:Could someone take a shot at this?
shiv wrote:Can someone help here? This appears to be a PLA camp 25 km from the border and 50 km from Tawang.

The coordinates are 28° 0'25.61"N 91°57'51.70"E

What is the cross shaped thing? It appears to be a pre-surveyed rocket/mijjile launch site to me, It is 100 meters by 130 meters
Image



could be placements for air defense guns .. maybe coupled with missiles ? .. the coverage position seems to be appropriate for that ..

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 406
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 02 Feb 2017 19:27

The PLAAF's strength in the Western Theatre command (not Tibet) is 7 regiments of Mig 21 equivalents (as max of 168 aircraft) and 4
regiments of SU-27 (max 96 aircraft).
In reserve (Jinan military command) they can deploy another 120 J-7 and 24 J-11's

Their 2 bomber regiments (plus 1 reserve) are a max of 36 H-6 aircraft ( Soviet Tu-16 of 1950's vintage).

All these aircraft would either have to operate from bases outside Tibet, or accept a severe penalty in fuel or weapons when operating from
airfields in Tibet - which are far more vulnerable to the IAF than our bases are to them.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 02 Feb 2017 21:39

Deans wrote: Few people realise that Tibet is at a far higher elevation that IAF bases in Leh and Thoise. Aircraft can carry less than half their payload (its worse in summer) even when using runways twice as long. .

Refer this image again- showing Tibet airbase Nyingchi (9500 feet) and Indian airstrip at Tuting (1500 feet) just 64 km away from each other.
Image

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 02 Feb 2017 21:50

Deans wrote:I've compiled the Chinese air force strength in Tibet (cross referenced from a couple of sources).

Thanks for this useful reference point

Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12204
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Lalmohan » 02 Feb 2017 21:54

standing deployments ok - what level of force can they deploy to TAR whilst maintaining sufficient coverage across Japan, Taiwan straits and Vietnam whilst doing so? Let us assume that the Amur river flows smoothly as ever and sees no perturbations

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 03 Feb 2017 08:33

At some stage - eventually I will have to upload all the placemarks/markers I have on Google Earth. But for now I merely want to speak of why China chose the Tawang area to attack in 1962 rather than say 20 or 50 km to the east or west. After all, according to popular Indian belief - China has good roads everywhere and can come in from anywhere any time.

For the Chinese to attack India near Tawang in Western Arunachal - there are several advantages they have.
  • First - India occupies a small part of the high ground there - which is at the same elevation as the "Flat top" of Tibet. (Bum La on the map) If you look at Tibet as a table, India sits on one corner of the table near Tawang and can be "pushed off the edge"
  • Falling off the edge of the table would take us into a deep valley of a river that flows from Tibet into India (don't know the name of the river/s)
  • On the "Flat top" of Tibet - the Chinese have built a great road (Provincial road S202) coming from the main Tibet "ring road) down to a point about 25 km from the Indian border. From this point they have two much narrower and winding mountain road forking out. One goes up to the "edge of the table where Indian territory starts" and the other winds down into the river valley that extends into India.
  • The Chinese already have a heavy presence in the area- not only on the "table top" but also on the sides of the river valley where they can look down and come down.

I am not able to judge how far the Chinese would really be able to progress into Indian territory in this day and age. First, their own "best road" ends 25 km from the border in the valley. Beyond that are winding mountain roads that would make heavy vehicular traffic slow. Of course they could fill up the table edge with vehicles - but they have no easy way of coming down as far as I can tell. However they are in a position to fill the area with forces using their one good road and may be able to thwart any Indian ideas of advancing into Tibet from here.

But things are not all rosy for the Chinese here either. Their own "excellent main road" that comes down from their "ring road" highway is itself over 200 km long. Chinese force concentrations in Lhasa and Nyingchi have to use the ring road and then the 200 km Provincial road S202 and this is in a river valley - and could suffer from seasonal weather related issues. That apart India has some high ground to overlook Chinese positions and hit them with artillery. Low elevation air bases are nearby and can be used effectively.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15245
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby NRao » 03 Feb 2017 09:05

Deans wrote:I've compiled the Chinese air force strength in Tibet (cross referenced from a couple of sources). Again the gap between dhoti-shiver
myth and reality about the Chinese air power in Tibet in is the same as the Chinese Army strength in Tibet.
The PLAAF aircraft strength in my table is based on the authorised strength of a PLAAF regiment (24 aircraft). Actual would be lower.


Thanks a ton!!! Any data on coords by any chance?

And, I assume these numbers are for today. IF so, any idea of projections? Thx.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15245
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby NRao » 03 Feb 2017 09:19

My understanding of the J-10 is that it is a type similar to the J-11.


Lavi, from Israel.

BTW, the J-11 come in version, of which the D (latest) sports an AESA. Just out I think.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 03 Feb 2017 09:43

NRao wrote:
Deans wrote:I've compiled the Chinese air force strength in Tibet (cross referenced from a couple of sources). Again the gap between dhoti-shiver
myth and reality about the Chinese air power in Tibet in is the same as the Chinese Army strength in Tibet.
The PLAAF aircraft strength in my table is based on the authorised strength of a PLAAF regiment (24 aircraft). Actual would be lower.


Thanks a ton!!! Any data on coords by any chance?

I have marked all that I could find - will post image - to be updated later.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 03 Feb 2017 10:00

PLA airfields - North and West
Image

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 03 Feb 2017 10:02

PLA airfields - central and East
Image

Prasad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6015
Joined: 16 Nov 2007 00:53
Location: Chennai

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Prasad » 03 Feb 2017 11:21

Re payload limitations in Tibet. A CLAWS report by a Dr Monika says a J11 took off from Gonggar (Lhasa) with three drop tanks, 2 each medium range and wvr missiles. Will add a link when I get to a desktop later.

Prasad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6015
Joined: 16 Nov 2007 00:53
Location: Chennai

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Prasad » 03 Feb 2017 11:49

Also, these airfields in Tibet including the Lhasa one don't appear to have aircraft pens or shelters of any kind assist from the open aprons. There are SAM sites clearly visible close by. HQ 16s are operational in Tibet since 2014, the older version. The expectation is that aircraft will be surged to this one and Shigatse when required. My opinion is that there will be heavy SAM presence and little enough aircraft presence to play a defensive role. Interestingly, in 2012, they scrambled jets when they thought a bunch of IAF fighters were heading towards the border from one of our bases. Cued by their radar station at GanbaLa. They've since added 3 more unmanned radar stations. Their tactic to handle our air penetration looks to be multiple interconnected unmanned radar stations plus mobile radar plus SAMs with minimal aircraft.

Shiv, apart from the roads linking East west, Tibet with Chengdu, there is Galong tunnel through which they can bring reinforcements from Qamdo right upto Metok, which is on the Brahmaputra /yarlungtsangpo on the chinese side, around 20km from the border as the sukhoi flies.

Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12204
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Lalmohan » 03 Feb 2017 14:57

a little diversion on a related theme
The Chinese man trapped in India for half a century

Born to a farmer family in Shaanxi with four brothers and two sisters, he studied surveying and joined China's People's Liberation Army in 1960.

Mr Wang says he was "tasked with building roads for the Chinese army" and was captured when he "strayed erroneously" inside India's territory in January 1963.

"I had gone out of my camp for a stroll but lost my way. I was tired and hungry. I saw a Red Cross vehicle and asked them to help me. They handed me over to the Indian army," he said.

nirav
BRFite
Posts: 1548
Joined: 31 Aug 2004 00:22
Location: Mumbai

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby nirav » 03 Feb 2017 15:52

Patriotic red cross :rotfl:

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 03 Feb 2017 16:36

Prasad wrote:Re payload limitations in Tibet. A CLAWS report by a Dr Monika says a J11 took off from Gonggar (Lhasa) with three drop tanks, 2 each medium range and wvr missiles. Will add a link when I get to a desktop later.

J-11 with drop tanks?

Singha
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55662
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: I stood eye to eye with The Beast and he told me everything...

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Singha » 03 Feb 2017 17:18

it seems plaaf is no longer interested in the J-31 and limited testing is only being done @ SACs own expense for potential export market pakistan.

so the future of plaaf medium weight or light stealth fighter plan is unknown.

nirav
BRFite
Posts: 1548
Joined: 31 Aug 2004 00:22
Location: Mumbai

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby nirav » 03 Feb 2017 17:19

But, in Paki hands it will be a Raptor beater.

Karan M
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 13588
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Karan M » 03 Feb 2017 17:54

IMHO, the biggest threats from China will be that they can field larger numbers of serviceable equipment. India has long had a tradition of big-ticket purchases followed by ad hoc jugaad follow on agreements

I will only focus on what can be done, publicly. The more critical stuff eg SF etc is not mentioned.

Air
Parrikar by raising Su-30 serviceability to 63% has added nearly two squadrons to the flightline. Where we still lag is in adequate numbers of BVR, PGMs mass manufactured locally. Su-30 aim should be 75% and then two squadrons can be taken out for upgrade.
Tejas needs to be MK2'ed asap. 36 more Rafales should be ordered and by Tejas+existing Mirage/MiG-29/Jag combo we can have PAF well taken care of, freeing the heavier Su-30s and Rafales vs PRC.

Akash is a start and is optimized against air breathing targets. This means we now have a chance against both PLAAF strikes (as versus the obsolescent SA-3 GOA) and also CMs and PGM strikes. Fact Akash could target parabarrels & its radar is calibrated to 2 sq mtr targets bodes well for even smaller ones, plus the fact the Akash has a large warhead. However, massed strikes from Ballistic Missiles & MBRLs remain a challenge. For that, we need a cost-effective option & also two basic strategies. Indian bases in the hinterland need to be built up, our base quick repair strategy needs to be ramped up & we need to invest more in AWACs and IFR to allow aircraft to either get to the theater or still influence from afar.

We have managed to invest somewhat in basic levels of radars, SAMs. However long range/BMD systems, SRSAM systems, SHORAD, guns & exotic radars (V/UHF) remain lacking. The last are crucial. We need some of these systems fast. Not just vs PRC but as a capability overall.
MRSAM also needs to be ordered in depth or an Indian equivalent progressed.
With Astra seeker tech anyhow getting acquired or produced (either JV or local & Barak propulsion in desi & Arudhra, fundamentally there is nothing in MRSAM we can't now Indian-ize. Hopefully common sense strikes MOD and they do it.

Ground
The current Govt clearly didn't get its babus in line fast enough and only now is the emergency stocking for a 14day WWR picking up. The lack of FSAPDS, other rounds remains of concern. While short term needs will be met, future needs need to be forecasted and addressed. Depending on INVAR is prohibitive
What's equally concerning is the lack of adequate kit - BPJ, helmets, NVG for the troops. These are being addressed.
Some significant strides in the past two years in terms of night blindness of many tanks - a third of the T-72 fleet (my estimate) is now TI FCS equipped. Ne radios are on order & this year, India's K-5 equivalent ERA eqvt is in production. I would presume, this + extra Kanchan is being applied to T-72 Upgrades. IA has already committed to the former ERA. This makes our T-72s relevant against 2nd gen ATGMs and the heavier ERA will perform better against most ATGMs & RPGs, and probably attrit, to a degree, tandem RPGs as well
T-90 FCS is also being addressed. BEL just announced that it has its new GMS. If that clears trials, it will be a huge step forward. T-90s have INVAR which can tackle heavier PRC tanks (in whichever sector that matters).
Apache+ WSI Dhruv are also a plus. Again, for Dhruv, the ATGM needs to be progressed.
And the IA really needs to stop waffling and stock up on Nag especially if it works in the NE sector.
The biggest success story will be 155mm Arty & Pinaka - there my biggest concern is OFB ammo production. That's the biggest challenge. Parrikar has to fix this.

Navy - IMHO, the biggest issue is/are lack of adequate number of towed array sonars in depth, MCMV & ASuW helicopters. PRC has a lead on us in subs as well. Its a matter of time before they manage to train elite crews to a significant level. Also serviceability. The Navy's mishaps are conveniently blamed on crew & personnel. How many MOD babus and the great AK took charge of the submarine battery issue for instance? Its a farce that Kalvari is out there without torpedos. Unfortunately, Parrikar has not been able to make much headway in order to avoid a Bofors charge and this is a big challenge.

Other areas - backup comms sats, more ELINT/Reco sats - ISRO can do this

Karan M
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 13588
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Karan M » 03 Feb 2017 17:55

shiv wrote:
Prasad wrote:Re payload limitations in Tibet. A CLAWS report by a Dr Monika says a J11 took off from Gonggar (Lhasa) with three drop tanks, 2 each medium range and wvr missiles. Will add a link when I get to a desktop later.

J-11 with drop tanks?


Possible, Su-35 has them too

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 406
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 03 Feb 2017 19:25

NRao wrote:
Deans wrote:I've compiled the Chinese air force strength in Tibet (cross referenced from a couple of sources). Again the gap between dhoti-shiver
myth and reality about the Chinese air power in Tibet in is the same as the Chinese Army strength in Tibet.
The PLAAF aircraft strength in my table is based on the authorised strength of a PLAAF regiment (24 aircraft). Actual would be lower.


Thanks a ton!!! Any data on coords by any chance?

And, I assume these numbers are for today. IF so, any idea of projections? Thx.


All data is fairly current (2016). All PLAAF airfields have coordinates available on Wiki. Just google PLAAF airfields.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 03 Feb 2017 19:49

Prasad wrote:

Shiv, apart from the roads linking East west, Tibet with Chengdu, there is Galong tunnel through which they can bring reinforcements from Qamdo right upto Metok, which is on the Brahmaputra /yarlungtsangpo on the chinese side, around 20km from the border as the sukhoi flies.

Prasad thanks for the hint,

I found Medog and the treacherous road from Bowo on G 318 to Medog. I also located the entrance and exit to the 3 km tunnel. That route is so bad that the 3 KM tunnel makes a difference to the Chinese supply of winter stocks - but it also appears to me that Indian articles by people no less well known than Claude Arpi have needlessly added to Indian dhoti shivering about this tunnel. I beg to differ because of the following reasons.

The Medog area was almost inaccessible - and this tunnel made it better. The roads are still pretty bad mountain roads and the route from highway to Arunachal Pradesh is still nearly 200 km. There is still no direct route from Chengdu to Medog. They still have to use the G 318 highway to Bowo and then go 20-30 km down to the tunnel and then a further 70-80 km to Medog. Medog sits near the Yarlung Tsangpo. I scanned the entire area carefully. yese there are PLA unites in Medog but the route to Arunachal Pradesh is no good for a massive invasion via that route. The few towns/villages on the way seem to have large storage bins possibly for winter food I have to disagree with Claude Arpi that this tunnel makes a huge difference to Chinese logistics vis a vis India,

Will post some relevant links from my other machine

Added later - the Claude Arpi article
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ ... india.html
Last edited by shiv on 04 Feb 2017 06:15, edited 2 times in total.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 406
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 03 Feb 2017 19:50

There seems to be a formatting problem which led to my table of the PLAAF order of battle, not appearing reader friendly. I'd like to clarify
a few things for better understanding.

Each Military district (now Theatre commands) has PLAAF divisions assigned to them.
A PLAAF division has 3 regiments. The 3 regiments operate from 2-3 designated airbases. All aircraft in a regiment are of 1 type.
There are 24 fighter aircraft per regiment (18 for bombers or transports).

Thus, in my table earlier - the Chengdu military district has the 33rd and 44th Fighter Divisions.
The 33rd Division comprises the 97th and 98th fighter regiment (no 3rd regiment). These regiments operate from Dazu & Shashiyi airbases.

I have not mentioned the location of reserve regiments in the Jinan Military district because that's not relevant. They are supposed to move to
wherever they are required.

PLAAF regiments seems to lack the ability to operate as independently as IAF squadrons & airbases.
A lot of resources are placed at Div HQ Level. Thus relocation of aircraft from one military district to another would have to involve moving a whole division with its large HQ and not just a regiment (unless only lost aircraft are sought to be replaced). The PLAAF is trying to remedy this by introducing Air brigades in place of Divisions. It is speculated that a brigade will comprise aircraft, choppers and AWAC/ ELINT aircraft and transports. The first of these brigades is the 109th brigade at Lanzhou (it replaces the 37th Fighter division - they appear together in my table). The aircraft mentioned were part of the 37th Division.

Aircraft in the Western Theatre command are being rotated to airfields in Tibet. That seems sensible from the PLAAF's point of view - it gives them experience of operating from high altitude airstrips.

Prasad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6015
Joined: 16 Nov 2007 00:53
Location: Chennai

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Prasad » 03 Feb 2017 20:33

shiv wrote:
Prasad wrote:Re payload limitations in Tibet. A CLAWS report by a Dr Monika says a J11 took off from Gonggar (Lhasa) with three drop tanks, 2 each medium range and wvr missiles. Will add a link when I get to a desktop later.

J-11 with drop tanks?

My Fault. J-10. Here's the report http://www.claws.in/images/journals_doc ... .52-56.pdf

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 03 Feb 2017 20:39

Prasad wrote:
shiv wrote:J-11 with drop tanks?

My Fault. J-10. Here's the report http://www.claws.in/images/journals_doc ... .52-56.pdf

It would be interesting to see what takeoffs are possible if the runway gets a couple of craters that shortens its 3 km length to 2 km or less :mrgreen:

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 31279
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby shiv » 03 Feb 2017 21:43

Another informative article on the Galong la tunnel
http://www.china.org.cn/china/2010-12/1 ... 546693.htm

Prasad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6015
Joined: 16 Nov 2007 00:53
Location: Chennai

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Prasad » 03 Feb 2017 21:50

shiv wrote:Prasad thanks for the hint,

I found Medog and the treacherous road from Bowo on G 318 to Medog. I also located the entrance and exit to the 3 km tunnel. That route is so bad that the 3 KM tunnel makes a difference to the Chinese supply of winter stocks - but it also appears to me that Indian articles by people no less well known than Claude Arpi have needlessly added to Indian dhoti shivering about this tunnel. I beg to differ because of the following reasons.

The Medog area was almost inaccessible - and this tunnel made it better. The roads are still pretty bad mountain roads and the route from highway to Arunachal Pradesh is still nearly 200 km. There is still no direct route from Chengdu to Medog. They still have to use the G 318 highway to Bowo and then go 20-30 km down to the tunnel and then a further 70-80 km to Medog. Medog sits near the Yarlung Tsangpo. I scanned the entire area carefully. yese there are PLA unites in Medog but the route to Arunachal Pradesh is no good for a massive invasion via that route. The few towns/villages on the way seem to have large storage bins possibly for winter food I have to disagree with Claude Arpi that this tunnel makes a huge difference to Chinese logistics vis a vis India,


Reason for pointing it out was that while the immediate roads close to the border are infantry/artillery/ground based attacks targets for IA, further back targets will also be of interest to cut-off reinforcements and monitor. Hence become targets for IAF and missile batteries. Apparently they used mules in that region prior to that tunnel according to one article I read. Either way, there has to be some way surely of ensuring that roads in the river valley are blocked up. Bombing prone mountainsides to cause multiple landslides thereby cutting off access?

As an asied we must also look at places where we can push our forces into Tibet. Lemme go waste some time on google maps.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 406
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Latest Chinese boast: should we shiver or die laughing?

Postby Deans » 03 Feb 2017 22:13

Prasad wrote:
shiv wrote:J-11 with drop tanks?

My Fault. J-10. Here's the report http://www.claws.in/images/journals_doc ... .52-56.pdf


She appears to have quoted verbatim from a PLA press release of the exercise, which is designed to get us to dhoti shiver. Among
the PLA's achievements in this exercise that were highlighted:
- They dropped 18 paratroopers
- Their ground crews refuelled & rearmed aircraft when it was - 20 (as we have been doing at Leh and Thoise for decades)

Air to Air refuelling is probably a better option than taking off with drop tanks at high altitude. Does an aircraft taking off with drop tanks
(assuming they were present and full) mean the PLAAF ruled out even trying to refuel in the air, during a `capability building' exercise ?
I would have expected the good Dr Monika to analyse these possibilities.


Return to “Military Issues & History Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Rakesh, Theeran and 17 guests