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LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Dileep » 11 Nov 2017 21:21

I am pretty sure that a PPT made by IAF to present to RM and Babus had been purposefully leaked out. The PPT's purpose would have been to answer RM's question "why you need SEF? What is your plan?". I think, in typical Indiligence SoP, the "comparison sheet" quotes the best on one side and the worst on the other. All of us PPT warriors have done this many times, didn't we?

So, don't worry, have curry. The "Document" is simply the "why we want SEF" justification made by IAF. If any of us was asked to make such a PPT, we would have essentially made the same.

My only question is, where does RM and the Babus stand?

Did they ask this "document" to pre-empt some brewing move against the SEF purchase? Then, we have a problem.

OR

Did they ask this document in a move to "show your cards" to IAF, to give the "due process" for them before denying the SEF? Then we are OK.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Anurag » 11 Nov 2017 21:26

https://goo.gl/images/jAvw3L

Look at the top two lines for comparison

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby NRao » 11 Nov 2017 21:51

Would nto be surprised if a SE is selected without a RF.

Also see around 200 LCAs (Mk1A), if not more.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Rakesh » 11 Nov 2017 22:00

Nirmala Madam has turned out to be anything but a rubber stamp. Time to expose the hypocrisy and it appears that Madam is doing a good job so far.

I find it ironic (and funny) that the GOI who pushed for the MII for SEF is now having doubts about it. The fact that Doval asked the IAF why you need SEF, when you have the Tejas....speaks volumes of where the GOI sees the SEF going. Anyone sane person would though - the long timelines, the lack of valuable ToT, the ridiculous cost and the value of alignment with Trump's Make America Great Again - are now ringing alarm bells in South and North Block. As I said before, the departure of Parrikar and Carter have turned out to be a blessing. SEF will still likely occur, but nothing like the initial plan.

Also if what the IAF said to the Doval is true, the Govt will ask the IAF (if they already have not done so) why should we spend money on a fighter than is worse than the MiG-21 in some respects, has an endurance of only 59 minutes and has a life span that is half of the F-16 and Gripen. Rest assured, Madam will be double checking those figures. The IAF will have some explaining to do. And when those explanations come, Madam is going to see right through it.

Interesting times lay ahead. Strap in...because the tamasha has only started.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby shiv » 11 Nov 2017 22:00

Folks. Bad news. I checked on Google Earth

When Tejas went to Bahrain from Jamnagar I think, it had to stop off at Abu Dhabi. The distance is 1600 km across the sea. Flying at 1600 kmph the Tejas would have made in in about 60 minutes - which is close enough to 59 minutes. So there - the 59 minutes figure is true.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby nash » 11 Nov 2017 22:05

I think RFI of SEF is around the corner. Recently IAF has doubts on PAK-FA/FGFA and now LCA is not sufficient even Mig-21 is better in some aspects, getting this weird intuition that both F-16 and F-35 is coming. Order of LCA will be capped at 123(best case scenario) unless increase in sanctioned strength of IAF

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby fanne » 11 Nov 2017 22:09

Lack of evidence in not evidence of Lack OR one example does not prove the other 4000 flights.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby shiv » 11 Nov 2017 22:12

The F-35 was planned in advance with several nations - who all gave teir inputs and put their money where their mouth was. India was not among them F-35s are not going to come to India anytime soon. Existing orders will have to be fulfilled and there can be no make in India while there is "make in every contributing country" being done for F-35.

I for one am glad that the chances of the F-35 coming to India are remote. If we think F-16 will kill Tejas, F-35 will effectively kill off Indian military aviation industry. OT. Need to stay on topic

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby shiv » 11 Nov 2017 22:13

fanne wrote:Lack of evidence in not evidence of Lack OR one example does not prove the other 4000 flights.

No - the LCA barely managed 1 hour of flight to Abu Dhabi - 1600 km away. :)

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Rakesh » 11 Nov 2017 22:15

You hit the nail on the head Nash. The IAF will not order more than 123 Tejas. But seeing how they are whining about the Tejas now, even Mk1A is in doubt. But even 123 Tejas will raise eyebrows in the Govt. Order more SEF than your home grown fighter is not good optics for the import lobby - their entire argument rests on the premise that SEF is not a danger to the Tejas. The IAF now destroyed that theory.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby fanne » 11 Nov 2017 22:16

Sorry Dr I know you are being sarcastic. This is an example, where it flew well above an hour.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby fanne » 11 Nov 2017 22:25

Mach 1 is 1320KM/hr (I understand at sea level, you go higher, I guess at altitude that Tejas would have flown would be 1000 KM/hr). Tejas Max speed is 1.6 with afterburner (more fuel gulping). Sufficient to say Tejas would have flown anything between .5 to mach .9 (see link below, which talks about efficient regime to ferry fighter plane). I would say, Tejas flew at Mach .7 (it's most efficient regime) at 700km/hr speed. To cover 1600 Km it would have flown over two hours. It would have done so with at least 20% fuel still left and had taken at least 10 minutes each additionally at lower speed to takeoff and land, an endurance near 3 hours, same as Gripen. There is no point comparing Gripen ferry endurance with combat endurance of LCA. If IAF indeed did this, the intention is clearly malafide, and was to mislead the power that be, in my case a criminal offence.....

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-avera ... ighter-jet

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Prasad » 11 Nov 2017 22:43

shiv wrote:In theory - if we pay the US up front they can deliver us 100 F-16 airframes in 2-3 years. That aside - the engine manufacturer may not be able to ramp up because of order backlog and we will have to take engines from boneyard. But paying them is not going to happen given current laws and domestic politics. The US can equip us with say 100 F-16 by 2025 - but then we will be 120 MiGs down.

The North Carolina production line is slated to take close to 2 years to start up. So even if we put in orders now for 100 F-16s of which you get 20 in flyaway condition, you can expect them to get here in 3 years if you approve everything tonight. Fat chance. Only F-16s built at Fort Worth were the Iraqi AF ones and they shoulve been done by now.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby abhik » 11 Nov 2017 22:45

Rakesh wrote:Nirmala Madam has turned out to be anything but a rubber stamp. Time to expose the hypocrisy and it appears that Madam is doing a good job so far.

I find it ironic (and funny) that the GOI who pushed for the MII for SEF is now having doubts about it. The fact that Doval asked the IAF why you need SEF, when you have the Tejas....speaks volumes of where the GOI sees the SEF going. Anyone sane person would though - the long timelines, the lack of valuable ToT, the ridiculous cost and the value of alignment with Trump's Make America Great Again - are now ringing alarm bells in South and North Block.
...

I don't get this part, defense acquisition is said to be a 12 step obstacle course, with multiple layers of MoD babu, bean-counter babu, politico and jernails approvals. Yet only now somebody asks why we are going through with this qtiapa - as though the IAF went rouge and put out the RFI/RFP on its own.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 11 Nov 2017 22:55

All along the story was that Tejas is for point defence and may be for offence wrt to pakistan. If that is the case why do we need a fighter with 4 hour of endurance. Against what JF17, old pakistani planes?

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby kvraghav » 11 Nov 2017 23:00

This is a hit job by media. The endurance of Gripen and F-16 is quoted in hours but for Tejas, it is 59 minutes like bata pricing.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby krishna_krishna » 12 Nov 2017 00:11

Shiv Aroor is known teen peddler. He recently visited massa land , sad sad to see Indian gungadeen hell bent on destroying indigenous ecosystem

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Rakesh » 12 Nov 2017 01:07

abhik wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Nirmala Madam has turned out to be anything but a rubber stamp. Time to expose the hypocrisy and it appears that Madam is doing a good job so far.

I find it ironic (and funny) that the GOI who pushed for the MII for SEF is now having doubts about it. The fact that Doval asked the IAF why you need SEF, when you have the Tejas....speaks volumes of where the GOI sees the SEF going. Anyone sane person would though - the long timelines, the lack of valuable ToT, the ridiculous cost and the value of alignment with Trump's Make America Great Again - are now ringing alarm bells in South and North Block.
...

I don't get this part, defense acquisition is said to be a 12 step obstacle course, with multiple layers of MoD babu, bean-counter babu, politico and jernails approvals. Yet only now somebody asks why we are going through with this qtiapa - as though the IAF went rouge and put out the RFI/RFP on its own.

Saar, you forget one important thing - Manohar Parrikar. As long as he was in power, SEF was going to go through smoothly. Issue RFI, then RFP, do trials, negotiations, go through the 11 stages of the MoD process and finally sign the contract. Tejas production would stop at 123 and 150+ F-16s would be flying the IAF roundel. No one would be the wiser. What pulled the rug (or seriously delayed this process) was Trump. If you closely monitored the SIIR forum last November, you will clearly see the rhona-dhona (and shock) from BRF's import lobby. Trump undermined everything that the Obama Administration worked for with regards to Indo-US relations. Parrikar also missed his counterpart (Ashton Carter) to complement the US side.

Now Nirmala Madam has come on the scene and she is questioning this (and every other) deal. She is scrutinizing this with a fine tooth comb. And if you are aware of anything in the workings of the Indian Govt - questions lead to delays, which lead to reviews, which lead to committees and finally closure (at least in the manner we have been advised the SE deal will be). Air Marshal S B Deo was the one who was giving half baked answers to Madam which angered her. When Madam asked what are they doing about the squadron shortage, he was fishing (article posted below) for answers. He was then asked to come back soon with proper answers.

Defence Minister pulls up IAF top brass over declining squadron strength
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/640 ... p-iaf.html

At a meeting of the Parliamentary Consultative Committee on Defence on October 27, IAF officials, including Vice Chief Air Marshal S B Deo, were reportedly criticised by the minister, as they only talked about the problems related to depleting squadron strength, but did not offer any solution. As the meeting discussed the IAF's depleting strength, Deo explained the problems to the lawmakers but stopped short of suggesting a solution to the crisis. This angered the minister, who wanted IAF and defence ministry officials to also tell the MPs about the possible solution. The officials later told the minister that in the next meeting of the panel, they would come prepared with possible solutions on the vexed issue.

And this is what they came back with, a few weeks later ---> Tejas is....
1) worse than the MiG-21
2) endurance of only 59 minutes
3) life span half of F-16 and Gripen
4) carries half the paylod of F-16 and Gripen
5) more man hours required to service Tejas vs F-16 and Gripen

They could have answered this better by saying, "We are inducting 40 Tejas Mk1s and have ordered 83 Tejas Mk1As. We would like to induct more Mk1As to over 200 aircraft. We are partnering with HAL and ADA to overcome any possible deficiencies and are invested in ensuring the success of this platform. Continued production of Tejas will also allow us to quickly address the squadron shortage. In the meanwhile, we would like to continue with the SEF competition which will have benefits for Tejas and AMCA as well especially with the GE F414 engine which the AMCA is designed to fly with."

That is all they should have said. They would have checked off all the boxes. But they cannot say this. Because you cannot have 400 (200 Tejas and 200 SE fighters) fighters in an ORBAT of 42 squadrons. That math does not work. One will suffer.

The Air Marshals are now in a tight spot. They have to follow the 11 stage process. They are aware that even a chaddi from America will not come without MoD putting their seal of approval on all the 11 stages. But they have been crying wolf about squadron shortage for all these years. They want these SE fighters NOW, but that is not going to happen. But the Air Marshals - stuck in their stubborness and mired in their import pasand mentality - derided the Tejas by giving dumbass answers. Rather than induct a greater number of Tejas (beyond the 123 on order) to make up for the time gap between SEF induction and MiG-21/MiG-27 retirement, they said it is a terrible plane without any evidence to back it up.

Trump brought back to the forefront - what the Indian establishment always feared - Control (Pre Sale and Post Sale). America will always look out for her interests. If that means steam rolling over Indian interests, for the Republic to stay on top, then so be it. We may get heartburn over this, but this is the reality. It would have been the same under Hillary Clinton as well, but "her" US Admin would have been more deft about it. The US India Business Council would not have been so blatantly stupid to write that letter (with full approval from the Trump administration) to the Modi Govt earlier this earlier - denying ToT (to be expected) but copying Dassault's playbook - refusing to certify and/or guarentee Indian made F-16s. That killed the Rafale deal (at 126) and it will kill the F-16 deal as well.

Criticise our Babus (and rightfully so!), but mess with their rules and the Babus will not allow you to play. The Trump Admin overplayed their hand vis-à-vis India. Continue to expect all the benefits (from the Indian side) that the Obama Admin cultivated, but Trump Admin will play by a different set of ground rules. As I said before, their foreign policy is very fickle and has no consistency. However the deal as it stands now - and it will get worse - flies in the face of Make in India (MII). The Prime Minister will have some explaining to do in Parliament. And the Prime Minister is a smart man. He will defer this decision to the next government - His or the Opposition. So after May 2019. Win a second term and the Prime Minister has more political capital. Lose a second term and he can turn around and tell the people that the Opposition is now in power and not him.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 Nov 2017 01:58

your words give me hope to see 200s of Tejas!

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Philip » 12 Nov 2017 02:24

Shiv don't worry, the F-35 touts will shortly get a very detailed piece on what ails it, a trillion+ disaster.It's never going to come to India.

You remember I said a decade ago that it would be a great achievement if the LCA emulated the HF-24? It now looks even worse than that! Will we even build the MK-1As? The IAF has shot itself in the foot.If the IAF was realistic and bought more numbers of affordable aircraft in service like MIG-29/35 upgraded variants , and backed Tejas to the hilt for at least the first 120+ fighters, we would not be in this tragicomic quagmire.Pak will happily be churning out their modest JF-17s which can "drop bombs" as a Paki said ages ago, while Tejas will continue to delight air shows!

But what is the drawback of being a PD fighter? What was the Gnat? Arm Tejas with AAM's AND a cannon and a couple of drop tanks and let it defend our vital air bases and industrial hubs.There is also the ease of tanker refuelling over Indian airspace for the bird extending its time on station. Let longer-legged legacy med. aircraft with stand-off PGMs and ASMs do the strike biz, supported by 300+ MKIs and Super-Sukhois to come.Armed and armoured Hawks for the CS/GA role, the FGFA for the future, post 2020+ and (reluctantly) bargain like Byzantines for 36 extra Rafales to come in at around half their $200M price for batch 1.

In retrospect I think our idea a decade + ago of reopening the MIG-21 line for more Bisons would've resolved the numbers problem.The IAF will now have to sniff out the garbage bins of air forces of the world to pick up used cond......sorry,combat aircraft like MIG-29s and M2Ks.Whatever also happened to our approx 40 SU-30s we were planning to sell off, gathering dust in some Central Asian depot? We can reinduct them too! After all it is the numbers game that we're trying to resolve here and there are clear options.

PS: We mustn't forget or ignore the pct. sector who have been lusting for lucrative defence deals.Some of them have been waiting for this regime to release the dam waters so to speak.They want a decision on the SE before the elections.I predict a Gripen decision as Trump with his "America first" attitude is cheesing off his friends who were hoping for better trade deals with him.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Shankk » 12 Nov 2017 04:38

Rakesh wrote:Nirmala Madam has turned out to be anything but a rubber stamp. Time to expose the hypocrisy and it appears that Madam is doing a good job so far.


Yes, I had the same feeling twice reading some reports. I am really liking her so far but perpetual vigilance is necessary.

  • First, when she was annoyed that IAF is only complaining and not providing any answers and then asked them to provide solutions thus forcing them to reveal their hand.
  • Second, after the success of Nirbhay, she was quoted as being "optimistic" rather than showering bombastic platitudes for scientists that regular politicians do. That kind of attitude speaks volumes about her competence.

Regarding this news article, I think it is bullsh!t. There is no reason to be worried as long as we are vigilant. If the import lobby does seem to get an upper hand, just adding a requirement of a certification of certain aspects of selected fighter every 3 months will take the cost so high that only Tejas and HAL can afford it being right there in the country.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 Nov 2017 08:26

Endurance argument is pure BS; CAG report in 2015 had provided the max flight duration and almost all LSPs have hit 100-110 mins

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby uddu » 12 Nov 2017 09:20

http://www.cag.gov.in/sites/default/fil ... 7_2015.pdf
That CAG report is about 2013 and about prototype variants. It says max flight duration undertaken at 112 minutes. or close to 2 hours. Hopefully things must have improved atleast slightly in the last 4 years from 2013 and we don't have data of production variants which are supposed to be improved with better aerodynamics. Any other observation from gurus.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Cosmo_R » 12 Nov 2017 09:23

One small request. ^^^ Please no more 'madam'. For all the reasons we already know. Thank you

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby uddu » 12 Nov 2017 09:28

One more thing i'm surprised is that India today or Shiv aroor did not contact DRDO to know about the endurance report. And we here have to pull out CAG reports to figure it out. :)

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Prem » 12 Nov 2017 09:40

If IAF wants imported Maal then it make sense to look at familiar fighter Mirage 2k variants instead of F-Teens.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 Nov 2017 10:10

uddu wrote:One more thing i'm surprised is that India today or Shiv aroor did not contact DRDO to know about the endurance report. And we here have to pull out CAG reports to figure it out. :)

aroor even didnt look at the CAG report, on which he had written a report too, though it was broadly positive.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Aditya_V » 12 Nov 2017 10:35

I think the IAF and mod brass should also come up with what the future budget for SE fighter is with Bahrain F16 announced price as cost. Then using current budget with tax growth of 5% per annum we can fix what the impact of this will be.on pensions salaries and perks this SE purchase will have.
I am sorry while IAF personal represented by their top brass and MOD personal are the main stakeholders in defending this country, they should not use thier responsibility to hand over the keys of the nation's defence to a foreign country for the next 50 years.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Pratyush » 12 Nov 2017 10:43

This series of reports seems to be the last ditch attempt to compel an imported S fighter. In this respect I am happy that it has come out. What will make me even more happy will be the actual cancelation of the Imported single fighter complex.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Kashi » 12 Nov 2017 10:52

Pratyush wrote:This series of reports seems to be the last ditch attempt to compel an imported S fighter. In this respect I am happy that it has come out. What will make me even more happy will be the actual cancelation of the Imported single fighter complex.


Probably the penultimate "ditch attempt", the last last ditch attempt would be active sabotage- of the programme and the platform- with the connivance of ghar ka bhedis.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby manjgu » 12 Nov 2017 10:59

ArjunPandit/Uddu.... with no prejudice to LCA and i dont have energy to read the pdf... the flt time is with what configuration ( clean or fully loaded) ... and in what profile ..lo..hi.. ? was the plane doing range flying?? I sincerely hope LCA is inducted and a domestic aviation industry gets a boost..

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby nash » 12 Nov 2017 11:00

Rakesh wrote:Nirmala Madam has turned out to be anything but a rubber stamp. Time to expose the hypocrisy and it appears that Madam is doing a good job so far.

I find it ironic (and funny) that the GOI who pushed for the MII for SEF is now having doubts about it. The fact that Doval asked the IAF why you need SEF, when you have the Tejas....speaks volumes of where the GOI sees the SEF going. Anyone sane person would though - the long timelines, the lack of valuable ToT, the ridiculous cost and the value of alignment with Trump's Make America Great Again - are now ringing alarm bells in South and North Block. As I said before, the departure of Parrikar and Carter have turned out to be a blessing. SEF will still likely occur, but nothing like the initial plan.

Also if what the IAF said to the Doval is true, the Govt will ask the IAF (if they already have not done so) why should we spend money on a fighter than is worse than the MiG-21 in some respects, has an endurance of only 59 minutes and has a life span that is half of the F-16 and Gripen. Rest assured, Madam will be double checking those figures. The IAF will have some explaining to do. And when those explanations come, Madam is going to see right through it.

Interesting times lay ahead. Strap in...because the tamasha has only started.


Great deduction, putting all the dots together and we can see what situation has been developed between IAF and MoD. I like the way MoD dealing with IAF this time, they want IAF to be more involved and share the accountability.

If we consider the timeline of 2025 then IAF will have this many sqd(apprx.):
15 Su-30MKI
5 Jaguar
2 Rafale
3 Mig-29
3 Mirage2000
6 LCA-Mk1/A

total is around 34-35 sqd, shortfall of about 7 sqd from sanctioned strength of 42.

Now, currently IAF want this 7 sqd through SE-MII and MoD might be saying composition of Rafale+LCA, which I think most of us believe more viable than SE-MII.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Dileep » 12 Nov 2017 11:08

Folks, here are some "well educated guesses" FWIW.

1. The report is 400% accurate onlee. It is indeed the IAF presented to RM and MoD.
2. The reason is, IAF is pretty sure that Tejas won't come in good numbers any time soon. HAL's current strategy and the progresses made notwithstanding. So, they want the SEF.

So, the end game would be either a) A serious kick in the butt to build Tejas in numbers. or b) Fast tracked SEF. It all depend upon the political will.

I don't think IAF is a stranger to the actual capabilities of Tejas. Hell.. they had been flying 5 of the birds like there is a war going on, and getting great results. It is inconceivable that the guy who wrote 20 hours is unaware what are the actual flights per day achieved by the flying daggers.

Also, consider this: We, the aam aadmi knows enough to tear apart the arguments. So, why the people who actually do the stuff, and who are capable of "just call the PS of the RM and seek an appointment" should keep silent? Why should the IAF even assume that they would?

It is all a carefully crafted game onlee.. FWIW again.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Thakur_B » 12 Nov 2017 12:23

The one positive from that report is Pigeon asking top brass some tough questions. If Pigeon takes interest, SEF may be dead on arrival.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby GopiD » 12 Nov 2017 13:29

I sense a churn in MOD after the new boss took over. If these reports are believed to be true, all it means is that some tough questions are being asked and some have preferred to answer it through propaganda. This is a clear test of mettle of the new boss. I am seeing this as a positive churn. Clarity is sure to follow. JMT.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Khalsa » 12 Nov 2017 13:51

have we pondered that this scare mongering etc etc inside copy of the stats and reports from ACM Dhanoa's bedside papers etc
could very well be the
death throes of the Make in India Single Engine Fighter programme, the plane and not the thread on Bharat Rakshak.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby VKumar » 12 Nov 2017 14:50

nash wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Nirmala Madam has turned out to be anything but a rubber stamp. Time to expose the hypocrisy and it appears that Madam is doing a good job so far.

I find it ironic (and funny) that the GOI who pushed for the MII for SEF is now having doubts about it. The fact that Doval asked the IAF why you need SEF, when you have the Tejas....speaks volumes of where the GOI sees the SEF going. Anyone sane person would though - the long timelines, the lack of valuable ToT, the ridiculous cost and the value of alignment with Trump's Make America Great Again - are now ringing alarm bells in South and North Block. As I said before, the departure of Parrikar and Carter have turned out to be a blessing. SEF will still likely occur, but nothing like the initial plan.

Also if what the IAF said to the Doval is true, the Govt will ask the IAF (if they already have not done so) why should we spend money on a fighter than is worse than the MiG-21 in some respects, has an endurance of only 59 minutes and has a life span that is half of the F-16 and Gripen. Rest assured, Madam will be double checking those figures. The IAF will have some explaining to do. And when those explanations come, Madam is going to see right through it.

Interesting times lay ahead. Strap in...because the tamasha has only started.


Great deduction, putting all the dots together and we can see what situation has been developed between IAF and MoD. I like the way MoD dealing with IAF this time, they want IAF to be more involved and share the accountability.

If we consider the timeline of 2025 then IAF will have this many sqd(apprx.):
15 Su-30MKI
5 Jaguar
2 Rafale
3 Mig-29
3 Mirage2000
6 LCA-Mk1/A

total is around 34-35 sqd, shortfall of about 7 sqd from sanctioned strength of 42.

Now, currently IAF want this 7 sqd through SE-MII and MoD might be saying composition of Rafale+LCA, which I think most of us believe more viable than SE-MII.


4 of Rafale.

Qualitatively exceeding 42 squadrons considering today's assortment.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Kanson » 12 Nov 2017 15:33

There was(is) a big lobby for two legged R fighter gunning for the deal. How to throw the yoke of that powerful lobby where your own entities one after another behaving like inconsolable child saying there is no plan b? Here comes MP strategy. To nullify one he brought two more in the form of single legged fighter! :D :mrgreen: :rotfl:

.

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Kanson » 12 Nov 2017 16:06

See the 'no plan b' child is now asking for lollipops than Cadbury bar choclate. Now mother comes to say lollipops are not good to take before meals, home cooked food. So let have meals before anything, the Mother says. :rotfl:

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Re: LCA: News & Discussions: 15 August 2017

Postby Rakesh » 12 Nov 2017 19:04

nash wrote:Great deduction, putting all the dots together and we can see what situation has been developed between IAF and MoD. I like the way MoD dealing with IAF this time, they want IAF to be more involved and share the accountability.

If we consider the timeline of 2025 then IAF will have this many sqd(apprx.):
15 Su-30MKI
5 Jaguar
2 Rafale
3 Mig-29
3 Mirage2000
6 LCA-Mk1/A

total is around 34-35 sqd, shortfall of about 7 sqd from sanctioned strength of 42.

Now, currently IAF want this 7 sqd through SE-MII and MoD might be saying composition of Rafale+LCA, which I think most of us believe more viable than SE-MII.

Nash, good job on the squadron breakdown. I had posted a 2032 squadron breakdown in this dhaaga a few pages back. But just to use a 2025 timeline, as that is when the MiG-21s and MiG-27s will be out, the IAF Orbat will look similar to the one you posted above, albeit with a few modifications.

17 Squadrons of Su-30MKI (272 are being manufactured + 40 more on order as announced by ACM Dhanoa on 08 Oct 2017)
6 Squadrons of Jaguar (108 aircraft) - scheduled for replacement in the 2030s
3 Squadrons of MiG-29 (54 aircraft) - scheduled for replacement in the 2030s
2.5 Squadrons of Mirage 2000 (45 aircraft) - scheduled for replacement in the 2030s
7 (approx) Squadrons of LCA-Mk1/A (123 aircraft - 40 Mk1s and 83 Mk1As)
6 Squadrons of SE Fighters (108 aircraft)
2 Squadrons of Rafale (36 aircraft)

The IAF needs 42 squadrons and the above comes to 43.5 squadrons. The above is all based on what has been announced to date. This is why 200 Tejas cannot fit in an ORBAT for 42 squadrons. The math does not add up. After all this time and energy spent, the IAF will induct only 123 aircraft. Import lobbies do not want a large Tejas order, because it will negate the need for the SE fighter.

But to add to what VKumar said, I strongly believe that a minimum of two more Rafale squadrons will be acquired. And order another 57 Mk1As (on top of the 83 already ordered) and you get to a production run of 180 Tejas Mk1 and Mk1A aircraft. And that will further put into the question, the need for another SE fighter. And that is exactly the situation the IAF wants to avoid. Thus the reason for these stupid answers that they gave.

Assuming the above scenario occurs, the ORBAT will look like....

17 Squadrons of Su-30MKI (312 aircraft)
6 Squadrons of Jaguar (108 aircraft)
3 Squadrons of MiG-29 (54 aircraft)
2.5 Squadrons of Mirage 2000 (45 aircraft)
10 Squadrons of LCA-Mk1/A (180 aircraft)
4 Squadrons of Rafale (72 aircraft)

The above comes to 42.5 squadrons. This is without any induction of a new single engine fighter. And with regards to production timelines - as per HAL Chief - a production run of 16 is achieveable with the Hawk line and Su-30MKI line going idle fairly soon. Using 2019 as a starting point, the IAF can have all 180 aircraft in a little over 11 years. That is by 2030. Which is surprsingly a similar timeline to what ACM Dhanoa stated on 08 Oct 2017, that the IAF will achieve a full 42 squadron strength by 2032.


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