Two and Half Front War Scenario

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Arima
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 22
Joined: 05 Apr 2018 14:45

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Arima » 05 Jun 2018 19:33

nam wrote:If Pak nukes india, we will nuke China. As simple as that.

The Chinese know it very well.

we have a policy of no first use. but in case one country use nuke against us, then can India attack a third country? how can India justify this to world?

ArjunPandit
BRFite
Posts: 1285
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ArjunPandit » 05 Jun 2018 19:48

who'll be there to justify from our side?

Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7834
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Pratyush » 05 Jun 2018 20:17

The Indian nuke posture is explicit. That any nuke use against India or its forces anywhere in the world will invite a disproportionate response against the attackers and their allies who ever they may be.

That being the case PRC is fair game. In case of TSP attack against India.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50406
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 06 Jun 2018 01:10

Arima wrote:
nam wrote:If Pak nukes india, we will nuke China. As simple as that.

The Chinese know it very well.

we have a policy of no first use. but in case one country use nuke against us, then can India attack a third country? how can India justify this to world?


The MND says very clearly retaliation will be on the attacker and their allies.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5217
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ShauryaT » 06 Jun 2018 08:26

ramana wrote:
Arima wrote:we have a policy of no first use. but in case one country use nuke against us, then can India attack a third country? how can India justify this to world?


The MND says very clearly retaliation will be on the attacker and their allies.
It is actually broader than that. India reserves the right to use nuclear weapons not only on the attacker and its nuclear allies but even non-nuclear allies of the attacker.
India and the Policy of No First Use of Nuclear Weapons

One result of pressure from these “maximalists” was that the DND widened the set of countries that might nominally be seen as suitable targets for India’s nuclear weapons. The DND stated that “India will not resort to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons against States which do not possess nuclear weapons, or are not aligned with nuclear weapon powers”. The significance of the last clause has been emphasised by Ashley Tellis:

With the addition of this qualifying clause, the draft report radically expanded in one fell swoop the number of countries that would be potentially threatened by India’s emerging nuclear arsenal. Under the strict no-first-use assurances provided by India’s prime minister in parliament, only the states with deployed or readily deployed weapons – the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, Pakistan, and Israel (and perhaps North Korea) – could in principle find themselves subjected to Indian nuclear threats and, that too, only if they were to attack India first. Under the Board’s new formulation however, even allies of these powers that do not possess nuclear weapons – for example, the 16 non-nuclear allies of the United States in NATO, the 2 non-nuclear allies of the United States in the ANZUS treaty (the military agreement linking Australia, New Zealand, and the United States) and the 3 non-nuclear allies of the United States in the Five Power Defense Agreement, the (at least) 6 non-nuclear allies and partners of the United States in East Asia, and the 11 non-nuclear partners of Russia in the virtually defunct Commonwealth of Independent States – could now all be subjected to Indian nuclear threats in some extreme circumstances. (Tellis 2001, 52–53)

RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5181
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby RoyG » 06 Jun 2018 09:07

ramana wrote:
Arima wrote:we have a policy of no first use. but in case one country use nuke against us, then can India attack a third country? how can India justify this to world?


The MND says very clearly retaliation will be on the attacker and their allies.


It won't happen anytime soon. This century will be China's and Russia's on a global level. Regionally, it will be India. If Russia thought India would open up on China, they would isolate us quickly. It's simply best not to use them. Pakistan is a toxic cesspool and knows India wont ingress too far. Overall we are fine.

War window w/ China has also been effectively closed. There is no way in hell they are going to try anything now. With 2nd mountain strike corp on the way, artillery, aircraft, etc. coupled with thaw in relations with USA, China will find it very difficult to win. Agni V and Gagan Shakti has also scared the sh*t out of them. I think the scale and smooth execution has really planted a big seed of doubt into their heads.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50406
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 10 Jul 2018 21:09

X-Posting....

dinesha wrote:The sobering arithmetic of a two-front war
https://www.orfonline.org/research/the- ... front-war/
Notwithstanding the drawbacks that come with a bean-count, the analysis presented in this report disabuses the claim that the Indian military is ready to fight a two-front war, chest-thumping from some politically-motivated actors aside. It has become a trite observation by now that India, with its threat environment of two potentially collusive nuclear revisionists, ought to be spending more than 1.62 percent of its GDP on the military. If military spending continues to be what the trend has been in the past few years, the Indian government may have to contemplate dramatic measures to bolster national security in the face of a two-front threat.

One such measure could be the introduction of cheaper yet potent alternatives such as tactical nuclear weapons into the conventional deterrence mix (a subject whose detailed discussion is beyond the scope of the current report). Purely looking at defence-economics aspects, this is desirable in terms of cost effectiveness (low marginal cost of production). However, this is not to say that such a step would be without significant political and military-planning costs. On the political end, for TNWs to be effective, command-and-control would have to be devolved to corps commanders, and the no-first-use posture would have to be abrogated. On the military planning end, conventional and nuclear war fighting capabilities have to be integrated in the joint doctrine of the Indian armed forces, and the military has to be trained and equipped to operate in a post-yield event environment.

Whatever be the remedial measures to be taken in the future, what is more worrying is India’s loud proclamations about having arrived as a global power when – as it became clear through the preceding analysis – it has hardly been matched by increases in its hard-power. Deng Xiaoping once exhorted his nation: “Hide your strength, bide your time.” India’s strength continues to be hollow while biding time has become an exercise in futility.



I don't trust this ORF report as it is based on flawed reasoning....

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50406
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 10 Jul 2018 21:13

Its based on linear thinking and can never conceptualize a butterfly emerging from a caterpillar.

Same way Pandavas should have lost the Kurukshetra war.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 751
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Deans » 10 Jul 2018 21:34

There are several obvious flaws in the ORF report, but I'm not sure the authors have the ability to go beyond colorful graphs.

A simple comparison of combat strength on paper is not too relevant. In the case of China for e.g. what is relevant is the force they can deploy in Tibet and their time frame to do so. Even with a 60 day deployment window, they would be unable to deploy enough force to give themselves an advantage in either the eastern or western part of the LAC. The deployment time also precludes a surprise Chinese attack, or the PLA taking advantage of, or acting in collusion with Pakistan if (in the most likely scenario) an unpredictable event like a terrorist attack, followed by Indian retaliation and a sharp move up the escalation ladder, leading to war.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50406
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 11 Jul 2018 01:36

Indian Army and Air Force are deployed in following manner:

China LAC deployment is defensive -offensive. Mainly defensive to prevent loss of territory and offensive to gain any local territory due to advantage.
Pakistan-Kashmir area deployment is fortress or bastion. Lots of troops along LOC and sufficient to take back PoK.

Pakistan along IB deployment is offensive-defensive. Mostly offensive and defensive in some local areas.



By large IA generals are trained in old school British set piece battles of attrition. However there are rare generals who are masters of operational art. Eg. Lt Gen Sagat Singh in capture of Dacca.

Whole concept of Cold Start or Running Start is operational art suited to Indian conditions.


Indian Navy, I will let others write about.


Return to “Military Issues & History Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: manish singh and 22 guests